From Beirut to the Beltway

Nahr El Bared: Victory or cover up?

Some Lebanese fired their Kalashnikovs and tapped into their permanent supply of fireworks to celebrate the victory in the north. Soldiers returned to thousands of jubilant citizens in much of the country, except where the army is replaced by a "resistance" strain. There was no shortage of rice and flowers. However, there was a shortage of common sense.

Yesterday, the images of the killed Fatah al-Islam leader Shaker al-Absi were on every news bulletin. My one year old son, who a few days earlier had waved to a soldier policing angry Sunnis and Shias in Beirut, found himself staring at a dead body on the screen. It was no Spongebob Squarepants episode, although many who gave victory speeches afterwards sounded like cartoon characters.

PM Siniora gave a prime time speech in an attempt to paint it as a political victory for his embattled cabinet. However, Army commander Michel Suleiman went ahead and dedicated the victory to his soldiers and to Hizbullah (aka resistance).  Today, Defense Minister Elias Murr gave a press conference to declare, for the second time, victory over the terrorists, and used the event to warn against spoiling the victory by forming a second government. And just when you thought the defense minister was going to use army power to kick out the occupiers of downtown Beirut, the army generals sharing the microphone opened their mouths to exonerate Syrian intelligence. Investigations with the members of Fatah al-Islam did not reveal links to Syrian intelligence, they said. On the contrary, said the head of military intelligence echoing the Syrian foreign minister's statement from the day before, the Syrian army helped the Lebanese army by providing ammunitions. Fatah al-Islam was al-Qaeda 100%, the army claimed, and its members entered the country through the borders, including the airport. Some entered legally, some illegally.

In other words, everybody wins. The government can go on pretending the army is under its command, carrying out its orders, and Hizbullah can rest assured the army crossed no "red lines" by pointing the finger at the sister.

Many questions remain unanswered.

One question is: why did it take so long? Days before Fatah al-Islam fighters decided to run to their brand of martyrdom, media reports claimed some in the army had facilitated the exit of Syrian intelligence officers who were running the battle. Don't ask me for verification. 

Another question: Do Fatah al-Islam fighters give different depositions to different security agencies in the countries, depending on what they want to hear? So it's Syrian intelligence to the ISF, and al-Qaeda to the army intelligence?

And how does an organization like Fatah al-Islam keep an entire army busy, plan targets all over the country, and contemplate killing the Maronite patriarch after extensive monitoring without an intelligence infrastructure of some sort? Can any transplant from Yemen rent a car and drive to the patriarch's residence and record his habits without getting caught or at least receiving support?

The Nahr El Bared affair stinks. Sadly, the truth may have become inconvenient for everyone.  At least until another camp blows up in the faces of those cheering and being cheered for.

Meanwhile, my wife and I will be searched by the army every time we dare enter the unoccupied part of downtown Beirut. The ISF will pull us over on the way from the hospital, and stare at our sick baby and his unfamiliar car seat, and wonder out loud why the baby has a passport. All that while black SUVs are zooming by unsuspected, criminals getting away with murder, and Hizbullah freely maintaining an occupation not far from where we stand.

"You should be thankful we're doing our job," said the ISF and army officers.

Good job.

Al-Qaeda, Hizbullah, threaten US national security

Al-Qaeda has rebuilt its operational capability since 2001 and Hizbullah has sleeper cells in the United States, the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI), J.M. McConnell said today.

Speaking at a public conference in DC, McConnell said there will be "persistent terrorist threats" against the US homeland, mainly from al-Qaeda, over the next three years. "The threat is driven by undiminished intent to attack the homeland," he said. While al-Qaeda is not as capable as in 2001, they are planning "high impact attacks" to inflict "mass casualties larger than 9-11… like buildings falling". McConnell said al-Qaeda has sustained its top leaders, Bin Laden and Zawahiri and was able to recruit new lieutenants to oversee operations. The group, based in northwest Pakistan, is pushing more groups around the world, and is working on positioning trained operatives in the US.

The terrorist group has tasked its ops to acquire biological, chemical and nuclear weapons, he said.

Another group that is of concern to the US is "the Lebanese terrorist group Hizbullah", he said (gulp). The DNI believes the group has sleeper cells in the country, ready to hit domestic targets if its leadership sensed the US has "crossed the line".

The above was made public today by White House Homeland Security Adviser Frances Townsend, based on a National Intelligence Estimate delivered by the DNI. 

Interestingly, the estimate says that "the internal [U.S.] Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as severe as it is in Europe." As the DNI pointed out in his briefing, it seems al-Qaeda has been recruiting and training extremists in Pakistan, with the intention of infiltrating US society. 

Over the next few days, the press will obsess over how the situation in Iraq may have helped regenerate al-Qaeda, and how this evil administration is planning a war on Iran. This might be true and it is up to Congress to hold the US government accountable. But it would be useful right now to focus on the current threat, where it comes from, and how it affects us all as citizens and residents of this country.

It would also be useful to take a closer look at how al-Qaeda does the recruiting, and via what countries.

Iran, for instance, is said to host councils for al-Qaeda leaders. Townsend was vague about Iran's exact role in this. Townsend also did not mention Syria's role. Although, can you really say Hizbullah without saying "Iran" and "Syria"? Readers of this blog know Syria's and Iran's roles in sponsoring terror in Lebanon. Just today, two members of the Iran-funded, Damascus-based Palestinian group PFLP-GC surrendered in the Nahr Bared camp after fighting the army for weeks alongside an al-Qaeda style group exported by the Assad regime. In other parts of the world, in the Maghreb for example, Syria appears in every report on al-Qaeda recruiting in that region. Check out this report by the Washington Post, and this by Magharebia.com. The terrorist recruiting networks covered in these reports all mention Syria-based al-Qaeda agents coordinating the "missions" in Iraq.

Do Syria and Iran draw a line when it comes to targets in the US? Is this why their role is never declassified by the White House, and is considered secondary to villifying the administration by the US press? All I can is say is, may we never blog about Hizbullah terror in the beltway. And may we never see a Moroccan fighter, trained in Algeria and Iraq with Syrian blessing, coming to the US to strike targets. And may we never see a US Muslim inspired by the Syrian-assisted "martyrdom" of a terrorist. And may we all wake up to the role of Syria and Iran in setting the world on fire. And you don't need to be a fan of this administration to see all that.