From Beirut to the Beltway

Nasrallah's convenient resistance

It's been a hysteric day in Lebanon.

The Lebanese army enters into an uneven confrontation with the Israeli army, and Nasrallah goes on TV to bark some, and plunge the country into more paranoia.

The poor Lebanese army was apparently ordered to shoot at Israelis trying to uproot a tree blocking their surveillance cameras, and the result was tragic.

If it weren't for the loss of life, it would have seemed refreshing to see the Lebanese army taking charge, regardless of what one thinks of their decision to fire warning shots. Their move temporarily made Hizbullah seem useless, despite the limited capabilities. (Update: UN says the tree was in Israeli territory contested by Lebanon.)

Nasrallah today said his fighters watched in painful silence as Lebanese soldiers were being bombed. And he made his usual threat: the resistance will cut off the hands of anybody trying to attack the Lebanese army, etc.

I don't know about your memory, but I recall a certain helicopter incident, and I wondered whether the Hizbullah member who shot and killed the Lebanese soldier was party to this painful watching.

Nasrallah, who in the past said the resistance would follow nobody's orders, showed up on TV today on the anniversary of his alleged divine victory, to claim that, while the Lebanese army was getting beat up, he called and put the resistance at the disposal of the Lebanese army.

Gee, thanks. Hizbullah now waits for marching orders from the Lebanese army? That's new.  Will they be allowed to fly over or enter their security zones?

Let's not fool ourselves into believing that Hizbullah is suddenly recognizing the authority of the Lebanese government. Had that been true, they would have at least shared the "top secret" evidence they allegedly unearthed about the Hariri assassination with the Lebanese authorities, if they didn't trust the international tribunal.

For instead of rushing his soldiers to help the Lebanese army (by, say, sharing some weapons), he turned them into paper-pushers, sending them to the "Israeli-resistance struggle archives" to produce "irrefutable evidence" that "Israel and its agents used political rivalry between Hizbullah and Rafik Hariri in 2005 to convince [Hariri's] friends at home and abroad that Hizbullah wanted to assassinate him".

In his speech today, Nasrallah vowed to reveal all on August 9th at 8:30 PM and called on the government to "appoint a responsible [authority on the issue] if it finds what I say to be noteworthy…We are ready to collaborate with the government."

This is how investigations work in Nasrallah land. Evidence is based on historical research conducted in Hizbullah's archives, is aired on TV, and is not shared with judges or investigators (or tribunals).  Only Hizbullah possesses the truth, and it's predetermined as conspiracy against the resistance. And only the resistance picks the timing for war and peace. And only they decide when it's convenient to help the nation they allegedly defend.

If you ask me, Nasrallah today came across as a coward. Not for not fighting, for this blogger will never wish for that kind of help. But for going on the anniversary of his foolish and deadly adventure, on the day Lebanese soldiers burned defending a damn tree, to shield himself against the rule of law. 

When Hizbullah accuses others of being spies

Nothing promotes tourism and encourages foreigners to visit Lebanon like a statement from a Hizbullah MP declaring every holder of a foreign passport a "potential spy".

Following the assassination of a Hamas's Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, allegedly carried out by individuals holding European passports, Hizbullah is afraid that Mossad agents could infiltrate Lebanese territories disguised as foreign tourists.

"We must tighten foreign passport control at the airport and elsewhere in the country," Moussawi said, adding "Every Lebanese and Arab must deal with holders of foreign passports as potential spies." (Now Lebanon)

Many Lebanese hold foreign passports. Those passports helped them escape the horrors of the July 2006 war, and help them pump remittances into the country, which are credited with keeping the economy afloat during difficult times.

Hizbullah already controls "the airport and elsewhere in the country". The last time someone tried to challenge that control by firing the General Security officer who reports to Nabih Berri's Amal, they retaliated by invading Beirut and the Chouf mountains. They continue to eavesdrop and spy on everyone, Lebanese or foreign, and they are in effective control of the country's port of entries and defenses.

It's ironic, if not repulsive, for a Hizbullah official to talk of spying, when his organization is fully funded by a foreign country, maintains illegal weapons on Lebanese territory, and has carved a network of tunnels and even entire cities inside mountains. This last bit is common knowledge among many southerners, who hear and see Hizbullah building a support infrastructure for its fighters underground and inside mountains.  Many of those southerners live in fear of death, given that Hizbullah's actions against Sunnis and Druze have made them persona non grata in many parts of the country.

Just recently, Hassan Nasrallah traveled to Damascus to hold a mini war summit with the Iranian and Syrian presidents. It is rumored that he traveled by tunnels—tunnels similar to those Hamas built to smuggle weapons from Egypt. Acting like the de-facto president of Lebanon, Nasrallah had no shame earlier to vow destruction of a foreign country, disregarding official Lebanese institutions like the Lebanese army, which was entrusted by Lebanese citizens to defend and protect the country.

Hizbullah, which claims to want to be part of the country's political system (and is indeed in the government and parliament), has never stopped trying to hijack the whole thing and undermine it every opportunity possible. They are now fighting to postpone the municipal elections, having failed to pass a law reducing the voting age to 18. Many Christian and Sunni MPs saw through Nabih Berri's attempt to pass that law without also granting Lebanese residing abroad the right to vote. It went unspoken in the Lebanese media that Hizbullah believes it has the majority of young voters, having farmed so many of them over the years.  Without giving voters abroad the right to vote, the municipal election would at the very least repeat the electoral success of anti-Hizbullah forces in the country, reducing Hizbullah's control over municipalities in strategic areas where they want to continue to build/expand their military state.

Lebanon nowadays is made up of two opposite forces. Walking around downtown Beirut—once occupied by Hizbullah—you see an incredible amount of advancement and rebuilding, and most importantly, foreign investment—the kind that Hizbullah is trying to scare away by declaring all foreigners to be potential spies.  There is the force or push for life evidenced everywhere Hizbullah is not visibly present, and there is the push for more death and destruction, represented by flags and posters of martyrs, and continued bragging about weapons and missiles.

Unfortunately, Hizbullah has made itself part and parcel of the country, and hitting it militarily will bring destruction to all, and arguably less to the organization itself, which seems to regenerate given the international push for engaging regional actors known to be unrepentant conduits for terrorism.  During his summit with Ahmadinejad, Bashar Assad poked fun at Hillary Clinton's statement about separating Syria and Iran.

Iranian citizens can now freely enter Syria—no visas required. Not that they had issues in the past. But if this isn't a slap in the face of those believing Assad can reform and become a different kind of satellite, I don't know what is. Just look at what ignoring their role as Iranian influence facilitators in Lebanon since the May 2008 events has done to the country.  And if Lebanon is a not a convincing example, look at Iraq.

I waited until I was on US soil before posting this. Need I say more?

Ahmadinejad to Nasrallah: prepare to obliterate Israel

His highness the street sweeper who lost control over his own street phoned Nasrallah in his hole today, Lebanese media reported in passing tonight. "If Israel commits mistakes, the level of your preparedness should be at a point to finish off the Zionist entity... The Iranian people stand with the Lebanese people and the region's other populations..."

Of course, many Iranians would rather not stand with any Lebanese if they had the choice, especially when they can't stand in their own squares without getting bullied or stabbed by the Basij and their Hizbullah-style buddies.  While Nasrallah was choking on Kubideh, many Iranians were trying to understand why there was no meat on their tables or gas in their cars. All that crude oil being sold is being used to arm a crude form of resistance against the people, at home and at abroad.


As for the Lebanese, Nasrallah's latest threat to retaliate by bombing Israel's infrastructure failed to impress the wise, who know that missiles do not turn a parasite into a man, and certainly they do not rebuild what gets destroyed. Missiles and farmed fighters are easy to come by, but the efforts of hard working Lebanese aren't.


Iran's blatant manipulation of Lebanon has been so obvious of late that it's jarring to not see more being written about it. One almost misses Jumblatt's tirades against the Safavid or Persian plots, and Hariri's past references to the Iranian threat. Those references have been swept under the rug of national unity, at least until the time comes when Hizbullah will blow up that alleged unity to smithereens, as they did before.  

But this doesn't mean those with access to free information in Lebanon can't see the semblance of spring time in Tehran. The country's in shambles, and its leaders are busy exporting their troubles abroad, partly to distract their people, and also to pursue a grandiose dream of regional hegemony. To Anbar, they export sticky bombs and in Baghdad they instruct their stooges to ban election candidates (since that worked so well for them). In Gaza, they have driven Hamas into a Egyptian wall. In Yemen, they thought they could wage a proxy war against Saudi Arabia.  And in Lebanon, they are basking in the aftermath of a mythological divine victory that has been allowed to deliver a state within a state.



So yes, Nasrallah, go obliterate Israel, because that state has proven to be so destructible and vulnerable to your toys. Ahmadinejad probably forgot how certain people saved his divine emissary's behind in 2006. They forget that the holy toys are now tainted with Lebanese blood, no longer pure, and despite what Jumblatt says, many Lebanese houses will close their doors to the Shias who will flee the next round.



But I forget. They are not supposed to flee while Israel Lebanon is being destroyed. They are supposed to die in their homes, while Israelis survive in shelters, and while Ahmadinejad and his guards play chess with the world.

What really matters

It took a plane crash to remind Lebanese people that life has value outside the narrow confines of their absurd politics. The debris that washed ashore temporarily brought Lebanon back from the abyss it had dropped into since one militia took control of the lives of its citizens. The scent of death by random causes seemed fresher than the stale air that Hizbullah forces upon the nostrils of every Lebanese citizen.

Saad Hariri flying over the site of the crash, Michel Suleiman visiting families-- a tragedy  made many seem caring, and for a fleeting moment, competent.

Alas, soon, there will be “National Dialogue”, things will be swept under the rug, and 5 years of true resistance will fade out.

Fade in: Walid Jumblatt licking Damascene boots. Hassan Nasrallah staging another Karbala to sell his brand of resistance to increasingly confused and conflicted Arabs.  Drums of war beating...

Assuming there will be another Israeli-Hizbullah war, one wonders how Lebanese would react. Will they pretend that May 2008 did not happen? Frankly, it does seem that how they react or feel would not make much of a difference. The orcs of Hizbullah have already spread their terror, and dissent will now be squashed. And if one government institution falls, one Lebanese citizen dies, or one Lebanese army soldiers falls, who really cares? For when one Hizbullah fighter falls, another one quickly rises. And that’s what matters in this equation.
 

Stealing the show

Those of us with memory recall how the Assad regime manipulated the Lebanese system and pit political players from each community against one another with every major turning point. Today's events are no different, though the moukhabarat has been replaced with Hizbullah. While Hizbullah was unsuccessful in breaching the Sunnis, they managed to break the Christian Maronites in half, and spooked the Druze—or at least their leader—into becoming a neutral if not negative force. 

If you are still unclear on what the real issue is, then look no further than the archives of this very blog. This telecommunication ministry demand is nothing but Hizbullah working to keep its own illegal telecom network and spying efforts running.  Aoun has become the paid defender of their interests: Hizbullah pays him by elevating him into a power figure. He successfully, thanks to Jumblatt's exit from March 14, managed to change the subject and make the discussion about him, and not Hizbullah.

While this suits the self-centered Aoun, this does not bode well for the country.  Several key issues are not being discussed, at least not in the open.  Paramount among them is Hizbullah's weapons. Aoun's charades somehow made that issue seem insignificant or appear "divisive", until the patriarch brought it up again. Sfeir's statement was a reminder to all, that while they were busy playing by Aoun's rules, a significant issue was being overlooked.  Why can't that issue also be a hot issue, given what happened when Hizbullah invaded Beirut and the Chouf, using weapons it claimed were meant for the resistance?

Has March 14, or, as they choose to call it these days, "the parliament's majority", become so emasculated that it cannot even set the topic of discussion?  Who is going to protect the people who elected the majority to parliament? If Aoun gets his ministries, will people become safer? Will the rule of law apply to Hizbullah, the SSNP and the extremists that are being fluffed by a decrepit Assad regime?

One can easily blame Jumblatt for putting his weapons down, and choosing the path of "national dialogue" and the new emerging "Arabo-Iranism".  But the man is getting old. And he has no real support from outside—an unfortunate requirement for Lebanese politicians. With Europe, the United States and some Arab countries thinking they could "engage" the Assad regime or at least force a divorce between Assad and Ahmadinejad, Jumblatt is left with no real political backing for himself and his community.  So he has convinced himself that the old path was right, and that the March 14 days were a wrong detour.  At least the old is predictable. Ships never came to stop Hizbullah from invading his commune and that of his friends, and he had no desire to wage war at this old age.

This is not to offer excuses for his behavior, but just to remind ourselves that March 14, just as "March 8", was doomed to failure without some consistent and strong external support. The Lebanese formula and the situation in the country dictate it. The Lebanese are too stuck in their uncivil ways to form an effective movement that could change this formula overnight. Think of Hizbullah's occupation of downtown Beirut: the message was clear: we can counter your popular movement with the same, even if our people are farm animals to your sexy hippies.

Sadly, at the end of the day, and from this vantage point, this isn't about Lebanon. There are far more important issues in the eyes of the big players. It's a sad realization: Lebanon's independence is dependent on the generosity of others. Freethinking is slave to a massive delusion stemming from conspiracy theories, unrealized dreams, and contagious bloodshed.

Perhaps one day a new generation will manage to find a new way out.  Until that happens, I think the Lebanese owe it to themselves to not let red herrings like Aoun steal the show.

Reconciliation without apology

After Hizbullah and the PSP, the Future movement is set to reconcile with God’s warriors. The fairy tale continues. One of god’s former warriors, now a reformed March 14er, has apologized. Samir Geagea, whom some of us grew to respect over the past two years, despite his war crimes record, said he was sorry for terrorizing the population during the civil war.

Hizbullah, mind you, has not apologized. With March 14 busy electioneering under the banner of reconciliation, the Iranian-backed militia is not showing any signs that it will reconcile with the state, or recognize it for that matter. And why should they, when the president of the very country they claim to defend is in denial about their arms.

According to As-Safir, and during a meeting with Condoleezza Rice, President Michel Suleiman denied reports of weapons smuggling to Hizbullah across the Syrian border, calling them Israeli exaggerations, and adding this gem: “if the Israelis have evidence and satellite imagery to prove their claims, then let them hand them over to you.”

You would think a man who spent his life in the military would know better than to presume American ignorance of what’s happening on the border, or that they even need to use Israeli satellites to see what the Party of God is doing. And you would think he’d ask for the evidence for himself and not for Rice’s viewing pleasure.

With thousands of Syrian troops digging trenches along the northern border, and Hizbullah getting ready for another round with Israel, Lebanese had better hope their elected leaders know what they’re doing when they’re bedding one another out of wedlock. This isn’t reconciliation. It’s temporary marriage at best. Just ask the experts at Hizbullah.

And apology accepted, Samir. I would take that over fake reconciliation any time.

Free lessons in rule of law

Lessons in how to impose the rule of law sometimes come from the unlikeliest of places.

Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh on Wednesday gave an ultimatum to the Lebanese government on the Bsarma shooting attack in north Lebanon. "I give the government a 15-day to one-month ultimatum to reveal the truth behind the shooting incident in Bsarma," Franjieh told a news conference.

His ultimatum came a few hours after two people were killed and three wounded in clashes between the Lebanese Forces and Marada Movement in the town of Bsarma in the northern province of Koura. Lebanese Forces (LF) supporter Pierre Ishaq and Youssef Franjieh, head of Marada's Bsarma office, were killed in the fight. Three other people were wounded.(Naharnet)

Another lesson comes from another self-made legal expert, Michel Aoun, formerly army commander, currently a fruit:

Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun on Wednesday proposed a defense strategy based on merging the "various militias and the resistance."

Aoun made the proposal in remarks broadcast by Orange TV, mouthpiece of his FPM.

The resistance should "not be restricted to Hizbullah, let them expand it to include all the Lebanese" factions, Aoun said. "Guerrilla warfare is necessary to defend Lebanon," he added. (Naharnet)

With the president himself engaging in anti-constitutional activities under the title “national dialogue”, it’s hard to blame the above clowns for giving free interpretations of the law.

But thank God for Hizbullah, which helped re-align the dialogue’s agenda and set matters straight.

Hizbullah on Wednesday accused the United States, Europe and Israel of trying to list a topic on the agenda of the Conference on National Dialogue.  Hizbullah's international relations official Nawaf Moussawi made the charge in an address to a Palestinian delegation from the Beirut refugee camps of Sabra and Chatilla.

"The Lebanese People would not allow the Americans, the European governments and Israel to impose their own agenda on the national dialogue," Moussawi said. "Such an agenda has one item which is disarming the resistance and Hizbullah," he added.

Moussawi pledged: "This item would not be on the dialogue agenda. The National Dialogue Conference would tackle how to build a strong capable state that, along with its people and army, would confront Israeli aggressions."

OK, so will the dialogue propose bills allowing militias to give ultimatums to the state, and creating a favorable environment for militias to merge into mega militias?

A message to the Europeans and the Americans, please butt out of this one. Don't you have better things to do? Like a dictator to appease, and a president to elect?

Following Nasrallah

Hizbullah is reportedly trying to avenge the killing of Imad Mughnieh by kidnapping Israeli citizens, Now Lebanon reports citing Israeli TV. At least two such operations were reportedly foiled.

Given that we don't even know for certain that Mughnieh wasn't killed by his own pals in the Assad regime, it's always refreshing to see how Hizbullah, time and time again, proves to be an open ended invitation to disaster. This regardless of the Israeli motive behind releasing such information.

Just last week, one of Nasrallah's warriors, feted by many popular icons as saviors during the disastrous July 2006 war, killed a Lebanese army soldier for flying his helicopter over the "resistance" zone.

The warriors, it seems, will continue to kill Lebanese nationals in their attempt to liberate Lebanese people against their will, from an occupation that does not even exist.

But what's one more "martyr". Even the newly appointed army commander called the pilot a "martyr". Martyr for what cause? Nasrallah's, of course!

He called the slain officer a “martyr,” and said the death was a “terrible loss for the army and the resistance.” Kahwaji said that investigations into the attack would continue until the full truth was revealed. (Now Lebanon)

Speaking of the killing, Naharnet has this information for those who have not forgotten about it yet.

Military investigation into the shooting at a Lebanese army helicopter was likely to expand the hypothesis that there was more than one person involved in the attack based on testimony by co-pilot Mahmoud Abboud and other witnesses, the daily al Liwaa reported Tuesday.

It said military investigators have demanded that Hizbullah turn over three other men allegedly involved in Thursday's helicopter shooting attack which killed airman Samer Hanna in Sujud, south Lebanon.

Hizbullah on Friday turned over one suspect to the judiciary saying he was the person who opened fire at the helicopter Hanna was flying over Sujud hills.

Meanwhile, LBC television said Hizbullah is positively responding to the investigators' demands, adding that preliminary probe showed that there was no motive behind the attack.

It said the man who opened fire did so because he was suffering from tension as did the rest of his comrades who thought they faced an Israeli military airdrop.

LBC said the helicopter was hit by three bullets, one of which penetrated the windshield and killed Hanna. (Naharnet)

Suffering from tension? These are the warriors who are going to protect Lebanon? They shoot at their own people? (though not surprised there)

Here is the culprit:

The Hizbullah culprit was identified as a 20-year old fighter from the Moqadem family.

News reports said the fighter, whom Hizbullah turned over to the judiciary, told investigators that he mistook the Lebanese chopper for an Israeli helicopter. (Naharnet)

I wonder if the Hizbullah fighters who shot at the helicopter were still confused after discovering that there's a Lebanese flag on the flying object, and that the suspected Israelis spoke Lebanese Arabic!

Solution, as proposed by Nabih Berri: form a joint Hizbullah-Lebanese army committee to "coordinate". Coordinate what? What neighborhoods of Beirut to invade and what TV stations to shut down? I thought there was already enough coordination, in the form of let them do whatever they want.  And would that coordination include educating Hizbullah fighters about the difference between the Lebanese army and the IDF?

Are we surprised? Should we be surprised? Wasn't the Lebanese army made into an army of traitors by the Hizbullah media after the electricity riots? And isn't Hizbullah reaping what its media sowed?

But here's some "focus" for you, Lebanese army soldiers:

[Newly appointed] Army Commander Gen. Jean Qahwaji in his first Order of the Day told troops to focus on south Lebanon to reclaim the occupied land and on the domestic situation to consolidate security and stability. (Naharnet)

Let's see, whenever they "focus" on the south, they get shot at by the southerners in charge. As for focusing on domestic security, good call. But pray explain how it is worth their lives and efforts to kill terrorists, while their government turns a blind eye to where the terror is coming from! One example is the complete official silence over a UN report lambasting security forces for not doing much to curb the weapons smuggling across the Lebanese-Syrian border. No reaction whatosoever from the government. At least not yet.

سجل صمت رسمي حيال إتهام تقرير للامم المتحدة لبنان وسوريا بحصول عمليات تهريب للاسلحة عبر حدود البلدين. لبنان بانه يتلقى كميات منها بدون الكشف عن طبيعتها وتوقيت مرورها، وسوريا بالسماح بارسال اسلحة من اراضيها بدون ذكر مصدرها الاساسي وما اذا كانت من ايران ام لا. واكتفى بوصف تلك العمليات بأنها "لا تزال نشطة"

Here is some of what the report said:

Lebanon's eastern border with Syria is wide open to smugglers, according to a report submitted to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Monday by a task force he appointed to study the issue.

The report harshly criticizes both Lebanon and Syria, saying there has been no improvement over the past year despite promises by both countries to address the issue.

The task force, appointed about 18 months ago, published a previous report in June 2007, which said that neither Syria nor Lebanon was doing anything to stop the smuggling. The current report reiterates this conclusion.

At the official border crossings, it said, the equipment is outdated, the personnel are poorly trained, and the inspections are inadequate to detect smuggling. There are also several well-known unofficial border crossings, which is where much of the smuggling occurs, and the task force found no impediments to reaching these locations. (Haaretz)

To their credit, the government, and the newly "elected" president Michel Suleiman, were  concerned by the drilling of an artesian well on Lebanese territory by Syrians, and promised follow up and what have you (right!). But weapon smuggling?

Suleiman brought up everything but the issue of weapons when he visited Damascus earlier this month.

Syria and Lebanon agreed on Thursday to take formal steps to demarcate their borders as part of a string of decisions to normalise their relations for the first time after decades of tension.

The announcement came as President Michel Sleiman wrapped up a landmark two-day visit to Damascus -- the first by a Lebanese president since Syria ended almost 30 years of military domination over Lebanon in April 2005.

The two countries also pledged to examine the fate of hundreds of people missing since the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war -- amid claims by rights groups that around 650 people who vanished during the war are being held in Syria.

Sleiman and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also agreed to control their borders and curb "trafficking," Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem and Lebanese counterpart Fawzi Salukh told a news conference.

But a joint statement made no mention of weapons which Lebanon's anti-Syrian ruling majority says flow across the border and are intended for the Syria- and Iran-backed Hezbollah militant Shiite group.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, in a televised speech on the second anniversary of the deadly 34-day summer war with Israel, called Sleiman's visit "a new stage" in relations between Beirut and Damascus. (AFP)

Whatever Nasrallah says. Let's see. What does his majesty say about the helicopter "accident"?

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, said on Monday that although last week’s attack on a military helicopter, which he described as accidental, was dangerous, it would not sow dissention between the Resistance and the army. Nasrallah said that neither Hezbollah nor the army would ever succumb to sedition. (Now Lebanon)

Accident? Sure. Whatever you decree, Nasrallah.

Suleiman to postpone discussion of Hizbullah’s weapons

With the emasculated security forces desperately trying to control the situation on the ground, and politicians trying to overcome the Aoun obstacle to form a cabinet, the newly “elected” president Michel Suleiman made a promise to Hizbullah that has received little attention in the media.

I first read about this in An-Nahar, which quoted Suleiman as saying to visiting French President Nicolas Sarkozy that the "defense strategy" will be discussed after the liberation of the Shebaa farms. What this means is simple to understand: Hizbullah’s weapons are off the table until further notice.

ووفق مصادر المجتمعين، فإن الرئيس سليمان اكد خلال المحادثات للرئيس ساركوزي ضرورة تعزيز العلاقات اللبنانية- الفرنسية وتطويرها في كل المجالات، شاكراً لفرنسا مساهمتها في القوات الدولية العاملة في الجنوب، ومواقفها الداعمة للحق اللبناني. كذلك شكر لفرنسا المساعدات التي تقدمها في المجالات التربوية والانسانية والعسكرية.
وركز سليمان على ضرورة التوصل إلى حل عادل وشامل ودائم لازمة الشرق الاوسط، من خلال حل القضية الفلسطينية وفق القرارات الدولية، وصولاً إلى ايجاد حل لاوضاع الفلسطينيين في لبنان يقوم على حق العودة.
وشدد على حق لبنان في استعادة مزارع شبعا وتلال كفرشوبا، لا سيما وان هناك وثائق رسمية تؤكد ملكية لبنان لهذه المزارع، مشيراً في هذا الاطار، إلى رعاية الامم المتحدة لمثل هكذا حل.
واكد انه سيرأس لقاءات الحوار الوطني للبحث في المواضيع المطروحة وفق ما التزمه به في خطاب القسم، وان مسألة الاستراتيجية الدفاعية ستبحث ايضاً بعد تحرير مزارع شبعا وتلال كفرشوبا (An-Nahar)

In Monday’s edition of al-Mustaqbal, Fares Khashan mentioned the “promise” in passing: Michel Suleiman has promised Hizbullah that the “defense strategy will be implemented after the liberation of Shebaa”.

المعلومات تؤكد ان الصورة النهائية تتبلور في مهلة أقصاها، يوم الثلاثاء المقبل، فإذا كان "حزب الله" يتكئ على العماد عون للخربطة فيما هو يبدي إيجابية حتى من خلال الإيحاء بأنه لن يتسبب بمشكلة بسبب وزارة الإتصالات، فإن الحقيقة ستظهر في وقت قريب جدا، أما إذا كان "حزب الله" لا يُناور، وهو الذي أخذ وعداً من الرئيس سليمان بأن الإستراتيجية الدفاعية يتم البحث في تطبيقها بعد تحرير مزارع شبعا، فإن على عون إما أن "يحط"، وفي هذه الحالة يمكن للحكومة ان تظهر ليل غد، وإما أن "ينط"، وفي هذه الحالة يتم إرجاء تشكيل الحكومة الى يوم السبت المقبل، لأن قوى الثامن من آذار ستأخذ مهلة لتختار، بالإتفاق الضمني مع عون، الشخصيات المسيحية التي سيتم توزيرها لتكون من حصة "المعارضة" بعد رفض "التيار الوطني الحر" الدخول الى الحكومة. (Al-Mustaqbal)

 With Hizbullah reportedly on board after that promise, Suleiman expressed optimism today, and reports suggest the new lineup will be announced mid week.

Suleiman’s promise, if true, is a huge setback. With their weapons off the table, Hizbullah will have more opportunities to focus on what is important to them: going after UNSC 1701. March 14 must insist that this issue take priority over all other issues. They must not content themselves with temporary and ineffective security arrangements, such as the ones taking place in the city. Not discussing Hizbullah's weapons implies a continuation of the reign of terror that began in May. Reports of investigations of some Beirut residents by Hizbullah abound. This was common practice in the suburb, and it seems to have spread to the city. With Hizbullah's weapons untouchable, March 14 will lose the points it scored against the militia when it used its weapons domestically.

No cabinet is worth being formed, and no elections are worth being held with Hizbullah receiving that kind of immunity through impunity.

Hizbullah's demands and Bashar's comeback

Hizbullah wants March 14 and the government to surrender everything, from executive power to weapons they say Jumblatt has in the Chouf mountain. At the same time, they get to keep their weapons and use heavy artillery against the civilian population.

Parliament speaker and Amal militia leader Nabih Berri wants the government to revoke the two decisions affecting Hizbullah, as a condition to ending the war and starting his proposed dialogue, which he decreed should precede the election of a president. 

Talal Arslan, the pro-Syrian Druze defeated by Jumblatt in the last elections, has been acting as mediator between Hizbullah and Jumblatt, who had agreed to hand over all PSP positions to the Lebanese army. In a press conference today, Arslan implicitly sent Jumblatt's supporters a warning to surrender today or risk Hizbullah fury tomorrow. Arslan warned Jumblatt's supporters that the Lebanese army will not protect them if they decide not to surrender their weapons and alleged weapons cache. He cited a list, which he probably got from his Syrian masters, detailing the whereabouts of Jumblatt's weapons cache.

Although Jumblatt, who is besieged in his Beirut residence, had agreed to these demands, his supporters and other residents of Chouf could not get themselves to accept those terms, which would mean the Jabal falling under Syrian hegemony once again. They put up a good fight against Hizbullah in some villages, and suffered heavy bombardment.

In an interview with al-Hayat published today, Jumblatt said Hizbullah's objective is to prevent March 14 from ruling. Bashar Assad wants to replace him with Arslan, Jumblatt said, adding that the decision to not fight back was hard.

Jumblatt admitted that he and Hariri could have put up a fight, but that they would have eventually suffered a defeat due to the other side's superior capabilities. He said he remembered the threat Bashar Assad made to Rafik Hariri before he killed him. "I will destroy the country over your head", Bashar had said. "I did not want the country to burn, and have people say Jumblatt was the reason, even if I were in a position of self-defence… we evaluated the situation on the ground and saw that we could enter the confrontation but our capabilities are limited compared to Hizbullah's… I didn't want the people of the jabal to commit suicide."

Siniora's cabinet was expected to meet today to revoke the two decisions, after receiving a request from the Lebanese Army command, which has been acting as a messenger for Hizbullah.

March 14's position has been debated at length on this blog. Hariri has not uttered a single word since the first day of the war. His proposal was adopted by the cabinet, but the opposition wanted Siniora to reverse its decisions.

It doesn't look like March 14 will be able to control the masses any longer. The anti-Hizbullah resistance in the Jabal, and the Future movement's action in the north, suggest that Hizbullah will soon have to deal with a rebellious population. Qatar succeeded in buying time for Hizbullah to create more facts on the ground, but the delegation of ministers it will head will find that many Lebanese people do not care about dialogue with the likes of Nasrallah.

Update. It looks like the Syrians will not even allow the the Arab League delegation to land in Lebanon. Bashar's stooge Wiam Wahab today described Amr Moussa, who reportedly is insisting on using the Beirut airport,  as a "small spy who sold himself to Saudi Arabia.. we would prefer to negotiate directly with the Americans".  The pro-Syrian militias have been firing at the Saudi Embassy since the start of Hizbullah's war against the state, forcing the Saudi ambassador to flee the country. One wonders how long the Saudis will wait before they take some form of action against Bashar.