From Beirut to the Beltway

Winners and losers

With short-sighted coverage like this, you'd think Aounists would be thankful after their mini-victory yesterday.

Lebanon's Western-backed ruling majority was dealt a blow on Monday in by-elections that split the country's Christian camp in two and boosted the Syrian-backed opposition ahead of a presidential poll.

Following claims of Maronite victory by the March 14 camp, Aoun's own spokesperson Tony Nasrallah asked for "24 hours" to determine how the Metn really voted, saying that "emotions and political money were present".

In other words, according to Tony Nasrallah, two thirds of Metn Maronites who did not vote for Aoun were either bought or acting irrationally. What a way to thank your voters! But then, anyone who doesn't understand the warped and illogical ways of the Aounist camp should be institutionalized!

But is AFP right when they claim March 14 was "dealt a blow" and that the by-elections "boosted the Syrian backed opposition ahead of a presidential poll"? It depends on how you look at it, of course. Regardless, the president is elected by parliament, and the "opposition" won, correction, stole, one seat from March 14. The Beirut election may have been predictable and with a low turnout, but March 14 won there nevertheless, and that's the capital of the country voting against the people that occupied its center.

Also, if this election proved Aoun unpopular among Maronites, how will this boost his chances for the presidency in a country whose parliament is still dominated by March 14?

If anyone got a boost, it's the Assad killing machine, which proved still capable of assassinating deputies and replacing them with others. Aoun supporters should look closely at who really won the Metn election: the real winner is the Assad regime. They are losing their street so that the Assad regime can further its goals. Aoun's popularity among Christians does not matter to Assad, as long as the former general continues to provide a cover for the plot to bring down the government and divide the Christian community—which has always been the heart of the anti-Syrian opposition. Sadly, Aoun's supporters have convinced themselves that they're being forward-looking by striking alliances with the pro-Syrian camp.

As for March 14 and Amin Gemayel, the jury is still out on whether these elections were a good idea. One could argue they proved they could pack a polling station, at least in the Christian heartland, where Aoun now stands shorter than ever before. But something has to be said about the method. The first thing that needs to be put on the agenda of the government is a new electoral law. Even if Nabih Berri won't convene parliament to pass it, the people need to know that someone is making sure their votes count and can make a difference. Otherwise, what's the point?

Update. And here's Aoun accusing Maronites of selling out because they didn't vote for him.

Free Patriotic Movement leader Gen. Michel Aoun on Monday accused fellow citizens in the Metn of falling victim to financial temptation. Aoun, in remarks published on his movement's website, said: "We hope this does not become a habit." Noting that "..Metn citizens .. fell victim to financial temptation." (Naharnet)

Below are excerpts in Arabic from his statement courtesy of Tayyar.org. Note the first line: "We fought the Metn battle against the martyr...". Also note how he faulted Metn residents for "not understanding" his party's policy. I think my post above said enough. But this statement is a pathetic justification of defeat.

خضنا معركة المتن في وجه الشهيد، وضد المال السياسي وأهل المتن يعلمون حجم الضغوطات المالية ونأمل من أهالي المتن الذين سقطوا بالإغراءات المالية الاّ تتحوّل عادة
النسيج السكاني لمنطقة المتن من موارنة وسنة وشيعة ودروز وإن كانوا بنسب مختلفة هم يشكلون كلّ التنوّع السياسي، وتمثيلهم فخر لنا
بالأمس اطلقوا تسمية لي هي "ميشال نصرالله" واليوم يطلقون إسم "ميشال نصرالليان" وهذ الأمر أفتخر به
لا يمكن فصل المسيحيين عن بعضهم وتفكيكهم لتسعير الحالات المذهبية
أحذّر اللبنانيين من حالات الإنكماش وهذه السياسة تشكّل خطراً على المجموعات التي تمارسه، وإن كان بعض المتنيين لم يفهموا سياسة التيار الإنفتاحية، ولعلنا نسير بخطوات سريعة، فنحن مستعدون لتوضيح مسيرة تفاهمنا مع اللبنانيين
لا أحد يستطيع قطع مسيرة الوحدة الوطنية والوحدة الوطنية لن نساوم عليها
المؤسسة اللبنانية للإرسال أثناء الإنتخابات النيابية قامت بدور تضليلي لدرجة منحطّة، وهم لم يقوموا بدور صحفي بل بدور الكذبة
التيار الوطني الحر وقّع على ميثاق بكركي وعلى الآخرين إمضائها وهي ليست مجموعة تصريحات صحفية أو طعام على مائدة يؤكل منه ويترك جزءً آخر
خضنا ونخوض المعارك المستحيلة والمتن إحداها وهنيئاً لسكان المتن بتمثيلهم الدكتور كميل خوري
على سمير جعجع  الإقرار بمبدأ الشعبي أو التمثيلي في كلّ الأقضية خصوصاً في قضاء بعبدا - عاليه
أسأل الرئيس الجميل والنائب الحريري كيف تدخلت سوريا في المتن بغير بيانين أضرا بي لتسعير الحملات ضدّي، فيما المال بيت الحريري كان فعالاً
الحكومة تحرّض على التصادم والجيش اللبناني عنصر إستقرار وتفاهمنا السياسي بين التيار الوطني الحر وحزب الله هما الذان يدعمّان الإستقرار
حديث وليد جنبلاط لا قيمة له وتهذيبه الإجتماعي مفقود، ولو إعتبر نفسه رابحاً لما هذا التهجّم و حجمه حجم قضاء
كلام الحريري اليوم لا يشجّع والحريري لا يحددّ حجم التمثيل المسيح

Democracy in fractions

A fraction of eligible Lebanese voters went to the polls today to choose between March 14's and Syria's candidates. I say fraction because a large number of registered voters reside outside the country, where they work and save the economy from collapse through remittances. Interestingly, Lebanon was quicker to naturalize some 90,000 Armenians, nomads, Palestinians and Syrians in a controversial naturalization law designed to give the Syrian regime guaranteed votes in Tripoli, Beirut, Metn, Bekaa and the south. Lebanese residing abroad, however, cannot vote.

For that, a 45%+ turnout in Metn is considered high, and to an extent, Beirut's 18%. With the voting age in Lebanon stuck at 21, energized elders constitute the majority of voters. This might explain why we never see new faces in parliament, and why candidates operate in the shadow of their leaders. For instance, no one had ever heard of Aoun's Camille Khoury. And very few even heard his voice during the electoral campaign. The same goes for Saad Hariri's candidate, whose name many don't even remember.

Early results are showing a slight lead for Amin Gemayel in Metn. Khoury lost in his own village, and Ain Alaq, which was the site of a terrorist bombing, voted for Gemayel. Watch this space for updates.

Update. The Future Movement (March 14) candidate in Beirut, Mohammad Itani, can be projected as the winner of the Beirut by-election, with 12733 votes in 150 out of 250 "qalams" .

Update 2. LBC says Metn election is too close to call. Awaiting the results from two remaining boxes.

Update 3. Michel Aoun has just announced the victory of his candidate, Camille Khoury. Aoun called on his supporters to go to Jdeideh (where the votes are being counted) to counter "attempts to cancel some of the results".

Update 4.  Gemayel's advisor Saim Sayegh told Marcel Ghanem on LBC that the count was not over, denying that Aoun's candidate had won. The Lebanese Forces website reports 320 boxes out of 348 counted, with 37,703 for Gemayel, 36,172 for Khoury. Interestingly, tayyar.org is still at 281 boxes, giving the lead to their candidate with 33,963 votes (did anyone notice how the numbers miraculously changed to give Khoury the lead after Aoun declared victory?).

Update 5. Mustapha saw it two. Did Tayyar.org doctor the results after their leader's announcement?

Update 6.  According to Gabriel Murr, the pro-Michel Murr Tashnag party rigged the vote as "they always do". Gabriel Murr, who won the 2002 by-elections by a small margin (before the constitutional council annulled the result), pointed out that if Aoun won, he didn't win the Maronite vote, but the Armenian vote, which was included in the Metn district to manipulate the results.

Update 7. Walid Jumblatt: "The so called Michel Aoun lost by only winning by a small margin, and counting on naturalized Syrians and [non-Maronite] vote." Jumblatt described this as a "political victory" for March 14 and Gemayel.

Update 8. Amin Gemayel said there are no official results yet. He accused the Armenian Tashnag party of rigging the vote in Bourj Hamoud. He said his campaign discovered that deceased and expats miraculously voted in the Tashnag's area of influence. He also cited an incident where a citizen went to vote and found that someone had already voted for him. Gemayel called on his supporters to wait "calmly" for the official results. 

Update 9. Al-Mustaqbal reported in its Monday edition that Aoun's candidate won by 418 more votes than Amin Gemayel. The latter won two thirds of the Maronite vote, according to the pro-Hariri daily. The seat, however, goes to Aoun's candidate.  March 14 is spinning this as an end to the Christian cover. This may be true, but Aoun had long given up on winning anything by solely depending on the Christian vote. So March 14 may have miscalculated this one. The electoral law should have been changed first. You just can't keep wishing for magic to come out of a broken wand.

It was pretty depressing to watch the "exit interviews" with some of the voters. The few thousand Shias in the Metn almost all voted for Khoury. Reason given by some? "That's what Sayed Hassan told us to do," said one woman. "We owe Aoun for standing by us," said another Shia. The Hariri supporters gave similar responses. "We voted as Sheikh Saad instructed us," said one old man.

There may have been cheating in this election, but the end result speaks louder than the details. The Syrian camp won a seat from March 14, through assassination and good old gerrymandering.

Update 10. Official results: Camille Khoury won by 39,534 votes. Amin Gemayel got 39,116. Voter turnout in Metn: 46.5%.

Syrians arrive to vote in Metn elections

LBC aired interviews with Syrian citizens arriving at the Lebanese border at Masnaa to vote in the Metn by-elections.

Some had Lebanese accents—probably Lebanese living in Syria. These said they came to vote for the "opposition". 

Others had Syrian accents and seemed confused about who they were voting for.

"We will vote for Sayed Hassan Nasrallah", one of them said, to the agreement of others around him. "But Sayed Hassan is not running in these elections," the reporter said. After some deliberation, they decided they came to vote for Michel Aoun. "He has been good to Syrian workers," one of them said.

These Syrians were naturalized during the Syrian era to offset the then largely anti-Syrian Maronite vote in areas like Metn. Lebanese authorities cannot stop them because they all carry Lebanese ID cards.

Aoun gets help from the Assad regime

Who knew Aoun would one day ally himself with pro-Syrian Michel Murr, who shut down the pro-Aoun TV station Murr TV during the Syrian era? And who knew that Murr TV will be replaced by an Orange, broadcasting popular rallies to support the election of a pro-Syrian candidate? I still remember the time when Aoun's supporters gathered outside MTV's building, shouting anti-Syrian slogans, and celebrating after their candidate, Gabriel Murr, won against Michelle Murr's daughter. And I still remember the day the pro-Syrian constitutional council annulled the vote -- the same council Aoun fought March 14 to keep after the Syrian withdrawal.

And who knew that Aoun's website would turn into a mouthpiece for the likes of Suleiman Frangieh, who called the Cedar Revolution the "cauliflower revolution".

It gets better. According to Elaph, which cited a western diplomatic source, Aoun recently met with a senior security figure in the Assad regime, Mohammad Nassif, who is in charge of the "Shia file", meaning Hizbullah and Amal. During the meeting which reportedly took place in Germany, Nassif promised Aoun the full support of the Assad regime and its allies and of the Armenian Tashnag party in the Metn by-election.

وأكد المصدر ذاته أن اللواء ناصيف شدّد على ضرورة أن يخوض عون المعركة الانتخابية ضد الجميّل ويذهب فيها حتى النهاية وأن سورية على أستعداد لوضع كلّ امكاناتها في تصرفه.

وأصرّ المسؤول السوري على عدم تراجع عون عن المعركة وكرر أن دمشق ستطلب من الأحزاب التي تؤثر عليها دعم مرشح عون الى أبعد حدّ. وأشار في هذا المجال الى أن سورية قادرة على الضغط على حزب الطاشناق الأرمني كي تصب كل أصواته لمصلحة مرشح التيار العوني. ولوحظ أن ميشال عون عاد من المانيا بمواقف متصلبة قطعت الطريق على أي تسوية في المتن بعدما أكد له محمد ناصيف أن سوريا قادرة على أنجاح مرشحه في المتن وأنها ستضع كل ثقلها وثقل حلفائها من أجل تحقيق هذا الهدف.

While the news of the meeting cannot be confirmed, and will probably be denied by Aoun's Orange apparatus, the pro-Syrian parties have certainly been overwhelmingly voicing their support for Aoun since his return from Germany. The rally I mentioned above and Frangieh's statement, in which he declared support for Aoun, are good translations of that alliance.

Additionally, Samir Geagea today claimed that vans carrying Syrians with Lebanese citizenship have arrived in preparation for casting their vote on Sunday.

The outcome of the elections is unpredictable. Citing a survey conducted in May, David Kenner reports in Now Lebanon that Christian support for Aoun has declined. This might not matter much, since Aoun seems to be banking on the votes that Syrians own in the Metn.  These are the same votes that the General thinks will get him the presidency, the same votes that will one day sell him for cheap when Hizbullah finally sheds its Syrian-procured Christian cover.

The elections game

Michel Aoun described his decision to field a candidate against March 14 candidate Amin Gemayel as a response to "the attempt to strike the last bastion of anti-neodictatorship and the bastion of preserving the presidential powers".

The FPM exegetes will explain their leader's latest grandiose statement as a noble counter attack to safeguard Christian rights in the country. Mind you not even the Maronite church, which has been pushing for compromise, believes this nonsense. But Aoun and his people have their own way, and we earthlings have ours.

Rumor has it that Aoun didn't even want to participate in these by-elections, but was pressured. Regardless, as Michael Young puts it, the former general probably "walked into a trap", dragging with him the Christian community, which is "more divided than ever before". This is something that, Young argues, "Syrians can only welcome … with their usual sense of humor."

Aoun, who doesn't even believe the government that is organizing the elections is legitimate, shares the flip-flopping of his pro-Syrian buddies in the "opposition". Reportedly, some of the resigned ministers still, from time to time, go to work. The by-elections themselves were rejected by Emile Lahoud, whose authority is only recognized by the opposition when it suits them. Lahoud sends memos to the cabinet before every session to remind it that it's unconstitutional. And Aoun has asked the Shura council to look into the constitutionality of the elections.

But it seems the orders have come from Damascus to play democratic elections. Tragically, both contested seats became vacant after their holders were assassinated. The Syrians have a lot to gain: on the one hand they can sow division democratically, and on the other replace at least one March 14 seat with one that votes for Syrian interests, which the general seems to value a lot these days.

The election in Beirut may go to the Hariri candidate, but with thousands of Syrians who received Lebanese citizenship during the Syrian era waiting to be bussed on Sunday, the Metn election could go either way.

Update. The Shura council has rejected the motion filed by the FPM candidate contesting the elections. I guess the candidate, Camille Khoury, has to run wholeheartedly now! Meanwhile, the Maronite Patriarch continues his efforts to reconcile Gemayel and Aoun. A proposal by Aoun to withdraw all three candidates (one is independent) was rejected by Gemayel, and it seems by the Maronite church as well. A statement by  the Maronite bishops called for elections to be held in a "spirit of consensus, according to constitutional rules and regulations and in line with customary traditions." Translation: there will be elections.

Now Lebanon is reporting tension between pro-Syrian Michel Murr and FPM deputy Ibrahim Kenaan, who accused the latter of not mobilizing his supporters fast enough. Once again, Aoun is counting on votes by the pro-Syrian parties, including the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), whose leader announced on July 29 that he would be backing the FPM candidate.