From Beirut to the Beltway

March 14: devils without horns

Lebanon's southern neighbor sent 8 fighter jets today to spook Lebanese people while the majority of their elected representatives aimed their guns at their illegal president, with some (Marwan Hamadeh) even describing him as a "whore lecturing on virtue".

The Lebanese army reportedly fired at the Israeli jets, which flew at a low altitude over much of the country, including Beirut where parliament was passing bills as well as firing salvos at the puppet president. Siniora stood up to condemn the Israeli violations, and said the army was retaliating. Berri made fun of UNIFIL's surface to air missiles.

None of the parliamentarians dared to point out what those Israeli war machines were after. Their flagrant violations of Lebanese sovereignty aside, the jets came to monitor the continued arms smuggling via the Lebanese-Syrian border, performing a few mock raids over their easy Lebanese targets.

What does the Lebanese government think about the smuggling? Expect only general and vague statements. After all, "government representatives" only talk to outsiders because they are "afraid".

Lebanon regularly reports arms being smuggling into the country from Syria but the authorities are treading softly due to their fragile political situation, a senior U.N. envoy said on Monday.
Government officials have informed the United Nations of smuggling as recently as "the last few weeks," although they are providing no information on the quantities or types of arms being secreted across the border, said Terje Roed-Larsen, the top U.N. diplomat on Lebanese ties with Syria.

U.S. Ambassador John Bolton, quoting Roed-Larsen, said the officials were not being precise about the smuggling for fear of retaliation from Syria. "The absence of complete cooperation by the government of Syria remains very troubling in that respect and I think it's very courageous for any of the democratic politicians in Lebanon to go about their business under that kind of threat," Bolton told reporters.

Asked about Bolton's comments, Roed-Larsen said he had no specific information about threats of retaliation. But he noted there had been 14 assassinations or attempted assassinations in Lebanon since the February 2005 murder of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.

"Generally speaking, the situation in Lebanon is worrisome," Roed-Larsen said. "The political rhetoric shows that there are very high tensions, and I think we have to look at the situation in Lebanon with all caution."

Al-Seyassah yesterday reported that EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana-- who, and following a visit to Lebanon described the situation in the country as "not good"-- was shown videos by the Israeli military of the continued arms smuggling.

So, the Lebanese government and March 14 are still afraid of Syria. And they are besieged by Syria’s proxies, Hizbullah, Aoun and their “streets”.  The only person they are not afraid of is Emile Lahoud, although none of them can really touch him.

And now, their fear drove them to accept dialogue, or consultation, with the same enemy over how to best neutralize power they don’t really use because they are afraid to use it for fear of civil war, assassinations, etc. So instead, we hear endless praise of Nabih Berri’s statesman qualities, Hizbullah's "victory but..." and lots of Lahoud bashing.

And time is wasted. Hizbullah is offered treats, for fear of their tricks. But the tricks come anyway. And Hassan Nasrallah says and does whatever he wants. March 14 hopes for a miracle in the form of an international tribunal. Fine. But is there really nothing else that the "devils" can do in the meantime?

While Nasrallah threatened today, Jumblatt, March 14's official warrior, told the assembled few at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington that he came to the US to seek support for the Hariri tribunal, without which "we won't have any weapons of mass deterrence" against the Assad regime and its proxies. He also said that there won't be peace in Lebanon "as long as the border is not monitored" by the UN.

Jumblatt, who earlier this year came to US to argue for regime change in Syria as a prerequisite for democracy in Lebanon, told us how he, Hariri, Siniora and Berri opposed UNSC 1701 passing under chapter 7 because they wanted to spare the country civil war.

And today, Nasrallah accused March 14 of seeking to pass that same resolution under chapter 7.  And he threatened to “use the street” if his demands for national unity government and early elections are not met within seven days from Monday.

Jumblatt, who had not seen Nasrallah's interview yet, said that Nasrallah is protected by "national consensus" and that he should risk losing it.

National consensus. What a joke. As if they care? Was there consensus when Nasrallah kidnapped the Israeli soldiers, miscalculating his way into a catastrophe? Does Nasrallah have consensus today? He has the consensus of his backers. It is March 14 that is acting against the consensus of its supporters.

Yes, Jumblatt, a national unity government can lead to "paralysis and weakening of 1701, end of tribunal, etc", but pray tell me, who controls parliament now? Nabih Berri or that majority? What is the Lebanese government doing? Who runs the country? The cabinet, or Nabih Berri? Who controls the security forces? Who commands the army?

Better: who bypassed the Lebanese cabinet and is negotiating with the Israelis over the exchange of prisoners? Who is bypassing the Lebanese government and dealing directly with UNIFIL because they don’t trust the government and think they are using UNIFIL in domestic politics? Hizbullah. Who has ultimately kept its "promise" to its constituents? Hizbullah.

Who has failed its constituents? March 14 and the parliament majority.

Enough. Before we know it, the Israeli mock raids will turn into real ones, and Hizbullah will use Israel's fear of direct confrontation with Syria to rule the Lebanese scene. And then everyone will be spooked for real. And Lebanese citizens, in the absence of forward looking political discourse, will be left to default to their sectarian instincts in deciding who to follow. Some will continue their march towards Hizbullah's slaughter house. And many will choose life abroad over a stupid and meaningless death at home.

And March 14 will still be trying to preserve civil peace, while calling Lahoud "Baabda's settler" and accepting Hizbullah's terms and conditions at the same time. Whatever.

Happy Halloween.

Looking for the divine victory

Lebanon does not look like a victorious nation. Dilapidated buildings greet you everywhere. Air pollution must have peaked during and after the war. To drive is to venture into a lawless jungle. To walk is to risk being flattened by a car. The country is like a heavy smoker with lung cancer. He tries to quit, but everyone keeps blowing cigarette smoke in his face.

Hizbullah’s billboards are the first thing you see when you drive into city. They proclaim "divine victory" in three languages--Arabic, French and English. In some of the banners, there are crying children. Some show silhouettes of heroic fighters with rocket launchers. The billboards, big and small, flank the country’s best looking highway ominously. When you pass them, you get the feeling you escaped a brainwashing cycle. However, and as soon as the city center looms, you see two banners that make you want to go back to the airport. One is a poster showing three head shots, side by side, of Hassan Nasrallah, Michel Aoun and Nabih Berri. They are, in the poster, the Sayyed, the President and the Ustaz (Master).

Not far from where that poster stands, a banner by Hizb Al-Tahrir proclaims the arrival of the holy month of Ramadan. The fundamentalist Islamist party, licensed not long ago by a March 14 minister, Ahmad Fatfat, is already organizing conferences attracting numerous pro-Syrian personalities, including former Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Their latest conference featured lectures by the party’s leaders calling for the dissolution of the state of Lebanon and the return to pre-1920 boundaries, as well as the establishment of an Islamic caliphate grouping all the region’s Muslims.

The city center itself is finally shedding off its Disney-esque feel. The rebuilt downtown has lived through enough bombs and revolutions to finally gain some character. It is Ramadan. The day is for sinners, Christians and UNIFIL on leave. The night is for all.

A few souvenir shops still stand, defying the dwindling number of tourists. But replacing some of the beautiful handcrafts are t-shirts of Hassan Nasrallah proclaiming victory. And key chains. And for those who don’t believe in divine victories, there are other souvenir shops with posters of the slain prime minister and his progeny.

You are bound to pass a TV screen discussing a planned demonstration by the Orange clad revolutionaries on October 15. Mission: topple the government. Other TV screens have divine leaders threatening the current government with treatment similar to one usually reserved to Israeli invaders. Expect a “great surprise” after Ramadan, Hizbullah promises. 20,000 rockets to be fired at the Serail? You wonder...

You stop to gaze at the many churches, mosques and remnants of polytheistic temples that make downtown Beirut such a historical wonder. And then you remember the blood that once flowed on those streets, and your own lost childhood. You leave the city center wondering whether your child will see this version of the city, or another.

Civil war. Is the country being dragged into a civil war? If it is, the country is kicking and screaming. But is anyone listening?

Just yesterday, someone fired a rocket at the headquarters of the country’s internal security forces (ISF), headed by an official loyal to Saad Hariri. Days before, the same forces tried to stop a few Shia residents from illegally constructing homes and shops along the old airport road. During the clashes, two young men mysteriously died from gunshot wounds fired at a close range, with bullets the ISF say they don’t use. Soon after, Hizbullah accused the ISF of targeting Lebanese Shia.

Sectarian tension.

The tension peaked shortly after the celebration of divine victory. Armed Sunnis and Shias in a mixed Beirut neighborhood clashed. There were hate slogans and weapons long thought to have been confiscated. The incident was contained, but it prompted the country’s Sunni and Shia leaders to meet. Saad Hariri and Nabih Berri are now reportedly putting leashes on their followers. A street tale has Saad slapping one of his followers for gathering arms and thugs and moving into a Mazra'a neighborhood where followers of Berri’s Amal reside. Amal fighters appeared heavily armed and ready for a bloody confrontation. An alleged slap on the face and a few security forces saved the day.

Berri went on the record in magazine interviews as saying he was concerned for the country’s fate more than during the civil war. Berri, it is said on the street and in many circles, is the country’s new safety valve. He is defying the Bashar regime by refusing to join the campaign to topple Siniora, realizing the sectarian tension could turn into sectarian warfare if the Sunnis are made to look like Zionists.

Sectarian tension. Is it really about Sunnis and Shias? Many would disagree. They will tell you that it’s the Hariri tribunal, stupid. “Many heads are going to roll. Have you not read the list al-Seyassah published? Almost everyone is on the list, including Lahoud and son, Bashar and company.” Lahoud himself is obsessed with Zuheir al-Siddiq, the witness who is now spilling the beans and naming everyone. When Lebanon burned during the war with Israel, Lahoud was busy writing a letter requesting the extradition of that witness from France.

The word is the pro-Syrian camp is doing its best to at least change the government before it votes on the establishment of the tribunal. If Siniora won’t be toppled, then at least introduce a cabinet change to obstruct the passing of such bills. Hizbullah and Aoun and their pro-Syrian friends will stop at nothing to accomplish this. Journalists and media are being mobilized. A newly founded newspaper is being flooded with Iranian money. And so is a television station that always claims to be “new”. The message is: government is evil, Zionist. Tribunal is waste of money, an insult to Nasrallah who would have to testify, along with others. Even the Maronite patriarch has awoken to this ploy, and warned that the actions of those parties are designed to obstruct the establishment of that tribunal. He was quickly denounced by Aoun himself, who likened Bkirki to its Sunni counterpart in being a slave to Hariri’s whims. 

Bashar, it is reported, is training al-Qaeda Islamists to send to Lebanon to blow up UNIFIL troops and other operations to destabilize the country. He will not go down without a fight, even if it’s in the forgotten Golan.

This is Lebanon after the divine victory. All it needs is some fireworks and the "victory" will be complete.

Who wants to rule Lebanon? (updated)

Hizbullah is holding an unlicensed rally on Friday, which is expected to attract hundreds of thousands of their supporters celebrating their “divine victory” over Israel. The Lebanese Interior Ministry, which normally issues permits for such mass gatherings, has not even been approached or asked for permission. Security for this rally will be handled by Hizbullah, the militia that many still insist is not a state within a state.

Meanwhile, acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat told The Daily Star on Wednesday that the organizers of Friday's rally had not "asked for permission or for a license from the Interior Ministry to hold such a rally."  Rally organizers are required to ask for permission to do so from the Interior Ministry and submit information on the nature of the gathering, who will be attending and the location for the demonstration and routes to be used. Once a license is given, the Interior Ministry puts in place security measures to prevent any clashes that may arise between attendants or rabble rousers. Fatfat said the ministry "will not seek a confrontation [on the lack of such a license] ... but there are procedures that the organizers must follow."

Hizbullah’s “media officer”, Hajj Rahal, told the Daily Star that his party coordinated with the Defense Ministry on “security and traffic flow.” Yes, the defense ministry is now coordinating traffic flow with a militia.

Fatfat, you will recall from a previous post, had acknowledged that his ministry has been unable to exercise control over the various security agencies in the country, which are infiltrated by Hizbullah, Amal and Syrian intelligence. This has caused some concern with UNIFIL, which complained that the people handling security in the country have not changed since the Syrian era, and that much vital information such as names of people entering and leaving Lebanon by land, air and sea are still sent to Hizbullah, Amal and naturally, Syrian intelligence.

Fatfat tried this week to address the UNIFIL concerns and, no, not by removing some people from power, but through creating a mechanism by which all agencies attached to his ministry can exchange and share information. The minister issued resolution 2403 creating a committee to work on establishing an electronic database accessible by the various departments and agencies, including General Security (which controls the nation’s ports of entry and keeps records of visitors and hotel residents), and the directorate of personal status, department of motor vehicles, and the directorate of Palestinian refugees affairs.

These agencies, all theoretically falling under the authority of the interior ministry, together control sensitive information about Lebanese citizens and the activities at the border, the ports and the airports. During the Syrian era, the General Security directorate was the most powerful of them all, controlled by Jamil Al-Sayyed, now in jail suspected of playing a role in the Hariri assassination.

Naturally, no real investigation into any security incident in the country can take place without some information sharing between those agencies, something that is not taking place, due mostly to reluctance on part of the those agencies to release and share information with internal security and the ministry, now controlled by March 14. The Interior Ministry’s new intelligence branch, whose head was nearly assassinated recently, was in part an attempt to create a security body loyal to the minister. But the ministry is still in need of full access to vital information, or at least it needs to make sure that some of this information is secured. You may remember how Brammertz in his last report filled a couple of pages describing the inefficiency of Lebanon’s security agencies and their inability to solve crimes—every single investigation into the assassinations that took place since Marwan Hamadeh had come to halt. Evidence is tampered with, information is hidden and nobody seems to know who is in control. 

Fatfat’s automation project was quickly labeled as a coup by the pro-Syrian media, and Nabih Berri has vetoed it, saying that “these matters don’t work with us and we will not agree.” Fatfat, who over the past two days, has been defending his decision to automate information sharing (by doing this, he forces it to happen), accused “some” of trying to “assassinate him politically” and vowed to go ahead with it and shut down the “security shops” in his ministry. He went as far as accusing some of the security officials in those agencies of “leaking information” in exchange for money or for political reasons.

Berri is worried that the Interior Ministry’s intelligence branch (literally translated as information branch) would gain more power, and wants it to answer to General Security, headed by Wafiq Jizzini. According to al-Mustaqbal, Jizzini has recently refused to attend a meeting at the Interior Ministry to regulate and automate the entry process of Syrian nationals into the country. He also reportedly declined to meet with Prime Minister Siniora and ignored a written request by Fatfat to show up at the ministry within 30 minutes.

Friday’s show will be a reminder that this government is not in control. The people who will accuse the government of treason continue snubbing the state’s institutions, taking unilateral decisions on behalf of the entire population, and sharing sensitive security information with their foreign allies. I would like to believe that Siniora and Fatfat will fight this one out to the end. There are signs that they are. UNIFIL is one way they are doing it, and there are indications that Siniora will be counting on them where the country’s own security services will fail (perhaps intentionally). Hizbullah’s officials are unhappy with the mandate given to the German naval force that will monitor Lebanese waters. And the heavy French weapons are also a sign that this government is serious about disengaging the south from Hizbullah’s conflicts. But UNIFIL can only do so much. The real fight is internal, and tough decisions have to be made. Maybe 2403 is the magic number. My guess is that it isn’t, and one of the reasons is a March 14 fallacy called Nabih Berri.

Update. (Thursday) The cabinet has adopted resolution 2403 and urged Fatfat to take disciplinary measures against any employee who refuses to carry out his orders, in reference to Jizzini.

The Daily Star reported Hizbullah's opposition:

Hizbullah lashed out at acting Interior Minister Ahmad Fatfat on Thursday, accusing him of attempting to sneak through a "secret security network" that would grant unrestricted access to intelligence and security files for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Proposal 2403 stipulates providing UNIFIL free access to all security-related information, in addition to information on foreigners entering and leaving the country. The plan would group General Security, State Security and the information unit of the Internal Security Forces. If the proposal is approved, UNIFIL will be able to access security and intelligence data via the Internet.

I am not sure how accurate the Daily Star reporting is on this subject, especially the part about "accessing intelligence data via the internet." And from what I gathered, 2403 may have been motivated by a UNIFIL request, but it is not exclusively a UNIFIL tool. As I argued above, this is really about reining in the security agencies and bringing them under the authority of the interior ministry.  A very late but necessary step.

Update 2. (Friday, 8 am) Fatfat went ahead and suspended Jizzini this morning for 20 days. A deputy in Nabih Berri's block, Ali Hassan Khalil has accused Fatfat of trying to establish a "new security regime". Berri's argument now is that Fatfat is acting interior minister and doesn't have the authority to make such decisions. The Hizbullah and Amal ministers, however, did not vote against Fatfat's resolution yesterday during the cabinet session, which featured a long explanation by Fatfat that apparently won them over... until this morning (LBC News)

Under the fig tree: food and cluster bombs

Um Khalil, who stayed in her village until the "resistance sent someone to tell me if you want to keep our minds at rest, leave during the truce", would cook and bake and leave food under the fig tree for Hizbullah's fighters, or as she knows them, "the young men of the resistance". Sometimes, she invited them over for coffee.

"Here, on this porch, I had breakfast with them before I left… Thank God they proved to be up to the task and  triumphed," she said.   

Whenever the situation got worse, the boys would ask her to keep the lights in her house turned off at night. On those dark nights, she slept with a knife under her pillow, to stab "the jew" if he enters her house. "It's out of the question to sit and watch him, even if it meant my death."

After the war, Um Khalil greeted the returning fighters with rice and candy. 'They all came to me and I made sure they were all OK and kissed their shoulders one by one like they were my sons."

Um Khalil lost neighbors who refused to leave the village, and six of her seven cows that kept her and the resistance fed throughout her stay. 

In other villages, tales are woven about the heroism of the "resistance fighters". Hussein Sherri fought and killed 18 Israelis according to some, 12 according to others. In his village of Odeissah, it was Mercy Corps who arrived with assistance. But it's the heroism of Sherri that's remembered.  In Kfar Kila, one store owner opened his grocery store to find a list of items taken by Hizbullah, with a promise to reimburse. Sure enough, a Hizbullah member soon showed up and reimbursed him. The Israeli army could not enter Kfar Kila. (source: As-Safir, September 13. Reprinted in tayyar.org)

For those who stayed in their homes and looked after the fighters, who in turn looked after them in this surreal mode of existence, Hizbullah is no foreign tool, it is part of their fabric. That is why many of us thought the Israeli objective of "destroying Hizbullah" was so foolish. This may seem illogical to some, but the antidote to Hizbullah is not Israeli force. And it's definitely not 1.2 million cluster bombs.

Israel's army fired more than 1.2 million cluster bombs into Lebanon during the month-long conflict, the liberal Haaretz newspaper reported Wednesday citing a senior Israeli army officer.
The unnamed officer described his unit's use of the controversial bomblets during Israel's 34-day offensive against Hizbullah fighters as "crazy and monstrous." "We covered entire villages with cluster bombs," the newspaper quoted the commander as saying.

… UN chief Kofi Annan has condemned Israel's use of cluster bombs and the world body estimates that as much as 40 percent of the apple-sized bomblets fired into Lebanon failed to explode on impact. Marc Garlasco, a senior military analyst for the New York-based Human Rights Watch, said that Israel's cluster bomb use in Lebanon had "been taken to a new level", during a visit to southern Lebanon in the war's immediate aftermath.

Southern Lebanon is now littered with unexploded cluster bombs and ticking human bombs. Their diffusion is not an easy matter, and the story I began my post with proves the immensity of the task lying ahead, unless you want to dismiss it as As-Safir biased reporting. I am aware of other stories, possibly from Sunni and Christian villages where residents offered no food to the fighters. But there are too many Um Khalils out there to ignore. As someone who has tasted the food of many Um Khalils, and who knows how many southerners readily open their houses to help not only their sons in Hizbullah, but also strangers from beyond Hizbullah's realm, I cannot judge her, let alone dismiss her influence.

For many of us, the elitist city dwellers, the Israeli withdrawal ended the pretext for war and heralded the need for a peaceful future. But to many people who live with memories of tragic times, the future is the past and the present. Time does not move forward for those kept in the margin, and who never frequent our fancy downtown restaurants, especially when their self appointed leaders keep them locked away.

One hopes that Um Khalil will one day open her house to the boys from the army. Maybe, just maybe, those boys who ate the food she left under the fig tree will learn that local food is good as long as the cook is kept alive, and spices are local. And maybe those calling for Um Khalil to wear a Lebanese flag will get off their expensive high horse and taste her cooking for a change.

The responsibility is on everyone.

Honor and the shoes of Qana's children

Cornered and attacked, Hizbullah did what it does best: hide behind the suffering of its people—suffering inflicted (at least in part) by their own policies.

Nasrallah in an interview to be aired tonight on al-Jazeera said that Hizbullah was backstabbed during the war by some parties in Lebanon, alleging that until now Hizbullah had been patient. He described these parties (i.e. March 14) as "partners" in the Israeli attacks.  He described hosting British Prime Minister Tony Blair as an "immoral act" committed by "that prime minister that we have".  He said if an invitation had been extended to Blair, it is a national catastrophe. If Blair had decided to come out of his own will, then it is a national insult. He said Israeli media was more fair towards Hizbullah than some of the March 14 media.  (source: Aljazeera broadcast)

Yesterday, Hizbullah MP Ali Ammar addressed a group of young Shias in a destroyed part of the southern suburb, and declared that Hizbullah would never relinquish its weapons. He sent a message to whoever wants to discuss or negotiate their disarmament to do so with the "shoes of Qana's children". Ammar accused March 14 of aligning themselves with the "Israeli enemy" in front of thousands commemorating the birthday of Imam al-Mahdi, who, ironically, was sent into occultation in the 9th century by Shia scholars committed to a quietest version of Shia Islam. It was Khomeini who appropriated the hidden imam's powers in wilayat al Faqih.

Ammar said:

We say this government must go. We want a national unity government. We want a government with Michel Aoun and Suleiman Franjieh, and all those honorable faces that stood by the resistance… (source: LBC news broadcast. AFP has a story here.)

Another Hizbullah MP yesterday even warned against UNIFIL being used by March 14 as leverage in domestic politics. He added that it was "forbidden" for UNIFIL to exceed its mandate and areas of operation, probably in reference to calls by Walid Jumblatt for UNIFIL to monitor the border with Syria.

What Hizbullah has been doing since the March 14 and Maronite bishops' statements is mobilizing its "street" against the Siniora government, promising "action" after Ramadan, and diverting responsibility for the calamity to the forces who want to end their monopoly over defense matters.

Also, what Hizbullah is realizing now, with UNIFIL on the ground giving March 14 the teeth they never grew, and with the official "resistance party" fully engaged in domestic politics, it risks becoming redundant or at least losing its god given monopoly.

Make no mistake. Hizbullah is not just offended by the speeches of March 14 leaders. This isn't about honor or backstabbing. It's an existential battle. They are beginning the feel the siege imposed on them by the international community, and most importantly, the Siniora government. International monitors are starting to watch the sea and the country's ports and entry points. Whereas Hizbullah was counting on its people and allies in the various security services and the army to turn a blind eye to weapon shipments, Siniora is increasingly involving European forces in the monitoring process (especially the airport), tightening the noose around Hizbullah, which risks losing its supply routes.

The dissent in the Shia religious circles is also starting to bother God's alleged party. The Shia Muftis of Tyre and Jabal Amel, and Sidon (which covers most of the south) have openly criticized Hizbullah's weapons. Nothing bothers Hizbullah more than the prospect of rule of law and religious leaders not affiliated with their "wilayat al Faqih" moving to reclaim the community, taken hostage by Khomeini's soldiers through war and bribery.

Hizbullah, after all, is not a real political party. It's a Jihad movement with a political agenda. You neutralize the Jihad part, thrust them into the country's sectarian politics with its many checks and balances, and the movement's existence risks becoming redundant. That is why they cherish the Christian and political cover provided by Michel Aoun. 

Will Hizbullah resort to civil war? With Aoun on board, it is unlikely in the short term. Nasrallah in the past had insisted their weapons are only aimed at Israel. But then, he also said they weren't permanent. Ali Ammar yesterday told us they are as permanent as the Qur'an and the Bible. But expect a lot of vandalism, many demonstrations, though they should realize that in Lebanon, for every demonstration, there is a counter demonstration. And for every March 8, there is March 14.

One of the major obstacles now in reining them in is the extent of control the Siniora government has over the army and the internal security forces. That is a question many are afraid to ask. The assassination attempt last week was a reminder that the government's control of security is at best loose. I think Siniora is counting on UNIFIL to fill that gap, although his government should be moving towards consolidating its control over the military. That is why removing Lahoud is so important at this stage, which Hizbullah and Aoun oppose on grounds it would turn March 14 into the sole rulers of the country—as if March 14 were one person (like Aoun) or homogenous entity (like Hizbullah) with dictatorial aspirations.

Update. Asharq Al Awsat reported today that 3 shipments of weapons arrived for Hizbullah via Beirut's international airport on board planes from Dubai (the shipments reportedly originated in Iran). The weapons, which include anti-aircraft missiles, were transferred unintercepted to a "Hizbullah base in Baalbeck". The report cited Israeli military sources. The sources attributed the success of the smuggling to Lebanese government constraints limiting UNIFIL's capabilities. The sources claimed UNIFIL forces are stationed 1 km from the airport runway and naval forces 12 km from the coast. The Tripoli port is also largely unmonitored, allowing small syrian boats to roam the Lebanese waters freely.

From Zawahiri to Assad

In a message relayed by Aljazeera, mass murderer Ayman al-Zawahiri called on Lebanese to reject UNSC 1701 and "other resolutions that humiliate Muslims." The Egyptian born terrorist said this resolution "acknowledges the presence of the Hebrew state and isolate the Mujahideen in Palestine and separate them from Muslims in Lebanon." He described UNIFIL as "forces hostile to Islam" and called on Lebanese to "not surrender to Western pressure" and to organize a popular Jihadist war on Israel and the west.

ودعا ايضا الظواهري اللبنانيين الى رفض القرار 1701 الصادر عن مجلس الامن الدولي في شريط فيديو عرضت مقتطفات منه محطة الجزيرة الفضائية القطرية اليوم. وقال الظواهري ان "المصيبة الكبرى في القرار 1701 وامثاله من قرارات الاذلال للمسلمين انه يقر بوجود الدولة العبرية وبعزل المجاهدين في فلسطين وفصلهم عن المسلمين في لبنان ويرسخ هذا الانفصال بقوات دولية معادية للاسلام ويؤكد على تجريم الجهاد ضد الدولة اليهودية وحقها في ضرب المجاهدين، وللاسف فان كل من يوافق على هذا القرار يقر بكل هذه الكوارث".
واكدت الجزيرة ان الظواهري دعا اللبنانيين الى "رفض القرار" و"الا يستسلموا امام ضغوط الغربية" وان ينظموا "حربا جهادية شعبية ضد الاسرائيليين والغرب.

Zawahiri said the Gulf states and Israel will be the next targets, and advised "the west" to enhance their defenses in those two locations and to stop wasting their time in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Zawahiri did not mention whether he will target international troops in Lebanon. According to the Kuwaiti paper al-Seyassah, however, that task is left to Bashar Assad.

Al-Seyassah on Sunday (10 September) quoted Druze sources close to the Assad regime as saying that the Syrian military intelligence's Lebanon branch is training Jihadist fighters from Syria, Jordan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia to carry out terrorist operations against UNIFIL, and to "create military confrontations between Sunnis and Shias in Lebanon as in Iraq".

The paper said that the Assad regime has established a close relationship with several Sunni Islamists organizations in Lebanon close to Bin Laden, and that "their primary mission has been over the past three years to train fighters and send them to Iraq via Syria."

The former head of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon, Rustom Ghazale, is heading these efforts. According to al-Seyassah, Lebanese security sources didn't put it past the Assad regime to resort to blowing up UNIFIL targets, especially after Assad's repeated "warnings" of al-Qaeda operatives sneaking into Lebanon.

Al-Seyassah had published a report on Saturday claiming that France threatened to use force against Syria should its forces be subject to terrorist attacks.

Finally, the paper disturbingly reported that UNIFIL is worried that all major Lebanese security agencies, including airport security, the army, the internal security forces and intelligence agencies have not changed since the Syrian era. The Siniora government has not been able to change a single person, and these agencies are still infiltrated by Syrian intelligence, Hizbullah and Nabih Berri's Amal, who have facilitated the transfer of money and weapons to Hizbullah through the Lebanese ports and airports. Syrian intelligence, the paper reports citing Lebanese security sources, still receives passenger manifest information of all flights departing from and arriving at the Beirut international airport. Interior minister Ahmad Fatfat is quoted as acknowledging that his ministry is still "unable to create a unified security apparatus, especially for the airport."

March 14: UNIFILLED and ready to fight

After Nasrallah's "had I known, I wouldn't have" comes March 14's "we told you so and we'll show you."

Hizbullah and March 14 are currently engaged in verbal warfare following a statement issued last Thursday by March 14 leaders calling on Hizbullah to disarm and "continue its integration into the Lebanese project" (read: join the Lebanese project).

The March 14 statement began with a condemnation of Israeli aggression and then went off on a tangent to argue that Lebanon is the antidote to Israel—a pathetic prerequisite to shake off accusations of treason leveled by Hizbullah, Assad, Aoun and others.

The war has proven that March 14's position regarding Israel was right. It (March 14) wasn't surprised by its aggression and atrocity. Israeli spitefulness towards Lebanon is permanent and continuous. It is spitefulness directed against a people known for its diversity, openness, dynamism-- which constitutes a civilizational challenge to the model represented by Israel… [Directed against] a [Lebanese] people that has proven its ability to anchor a democratic system not governed by religious racism or guarded by an intelligence apparatus… a people able to develop its country and contribute to the development of the Arab world… people who refuses Israeli spitefulness and insists on reclaiming its occupied lands in the Shebaa farms, Kfarshouba hills and its prisoners in Israel.

After all this alleged Lebanese greatness, you would think Lebanon is a modern country and March 14 is a visionary movement. In the next 4 paragraphs, each of which beginning with "the war has proven March 14 right", we learn that March 14 has always said "weapons not under Lebanese government authority" cannot deter Israeli aggression, and that the "balance of terror" theory has failed. All that and more "despite the heroism of the fighters." March 14 was also right about the "necessity" of respecting the blue line, international resolutions and deploying the army in the south.

"The war has proven March 14 right" when they "refused for the country to become a battle ground used by Iran to improve its negotiations conditions with the international community about its regional role and by the Syrian regime to exercise its hegemony over Lebanon."

"The war has proven that March 14 was right" when it sought to remove Emile Lahoud from power.   "And then came the bishop's statements on the presidency to confirm that… March 14 was right."

They were right all along. Were they ever wrong about anything?

Our long march may have been marred by some mistakes and governed by some hesitation.

But that is a thing of the past, they assure us in the last paragraph. Armed with a new found confidence, the new March 14 will now work towards a strong and sovereign state with an exclusive mandate over national security, and with no tutelage or interference by outside forces. This is how March 14 thinks the country can begin a new phase:

• Support the Lebanese government and prime minister in their efforts to end the crisis. The government, we are told, played an "effective" role along with the parliament speaker in the "political resistance" to the Israeli aggression.
• Restore Lebanese confidence in their nation and confine reconstruction to state institutions.
• Fully implement the Taef agreement.
• Implement all international resolutions, especially resolution 1701 which settled the issue of Hizbullah's arms, and past resolutions concerning the assassinations and bombings that targeted the country over the past two years, and form the international tribunal.
• Disarm Hizbullah (or what means that) and the Palestinian militias.
• Monitor the border with Syria and delineate the border starting in Shebaa, to remove any pretexts that could be used to charge Lebanon the burden of regional conflicts.
• Endorse the speaker's call for a state of social and economic emergency especially in the areas affected by Israeli aggression.
• Return all displaced to their villages and settle the matter once and for all, including the displaced in the mountain (during the civil war).
• Disengage Lebanon from periphery politics (i.e. Arab Israeli struggle) and improve relations with those Arab countries that offered Lebanon political and economic support during difficult circumstances, and assist those countries in their efforts with the international community to find a just solution to the Palestinian cause.
• Demand that the Syrian regime recognize Lebanese independence and establish diplomatic relations with a country, as a prerequisite for normalizing relations between the two countries. Also call on the authorities to look into the regime's continuous interference in Lebanese affairs.

The statement said Nasrallah's "Had I known" speech constituted the beginning of what March 14 hopes would be a "continuation of Hizbullah's integration into the Lebanese project, which Shia leaders since 1977 played a major role in resuscitating by affirming the finality of the Lebanese entity. This call is echoed today by great political, religious leaders as well as intellectuals and journalists from the Shia community."

The statement also praised the Maronite Bishops' statement, issued the day before, which "drew lessons from the implications of one sect monopolizing decision making in the country."

Since the March 14 leaders got together in the Bristol Hotel to make this statement, I have been reading articles in their official press (al-Mustaqbal) linking the March 14 statement to the one made by the Maronite Bishops, suggesting a new national project can arise from the two. Many claimed the March 14 statement is as important as the one that declared the "independence uprising" more than a year and half ago.  The March 14 leaders are apparently convinced they learned from their past "mistakes and hesitation" and will not resort to anymore compromises over Lebanese sovereignty. For that, their statement dared include their most public attack on Hizbullah's weapons yet, and supported an idealistic statement/attack by the Maronite church against the Shia community. Despite some sincere idealism expressed by the bishops, their statement remains a statement by a sectarian body with a biased reading of Lebanese history. I couldn't help but wonder how a supposedly national gathering like March 14 could use the words of bishops as a jumping board to a national project.

Samir Kassir, your "state of citizens" will have to wait.

March 14 is now heaping praise on Nabih Berri, the so called co-savior of Lebanon along with Fouad Siniora. The thinking goes that empowering Berri would lead to disempowering Hizbullah.

In any case, March 14 and the Lebanese government are flaunting new fangs, and seem determined to take on the Hizbullah challenge the way they know how (described above), and with a lot of help from UNIFIL.

Hizbullah isn't impressed.

In a short response on Saturday (they promised a longer, more revealing one at a later date), Hizbullah thanked "February 14" (as they call it) for its invitation to "continue" the integration into the Lebanese project and in turn called on "these forces to start joining the Lebanese project and quit relying on international forces and following foreign ambassadors." The statement said Hizbullah "understood the February 14 forces need to speak with confidence as a way to get out of a state of confusion and loss caused by … the resistance's historic victory."

Hizbullah called on "February 14" to stop being "tools" for "the American project which wants for Lebanon to become a passage to realize its objectives and policies that only see Israeli interests in the region". Hizbullah accused the United States of using the country as a battleground against the "Lebanese resistance" and against Syria, Iran and the Palestinian people.

Hizbullah charged that the February 14 forces cannot build a country when they cannot even honor their electoral commitments (made to Hizbullah during the elections), and when they turn against the ministerial statement at the first challenge and after the first Israeli aggression. For those of you who don't know, the ministerial statement, based on which this cabinet got the confidence of parliament, sanctioned the liberation of Shebaa and the right to resist occupation.

Hizbullah's statement saw the call to disarm Hizbullah as "denying the resistance its historic victory", and a proof that these (March 14/February14) forces are constantly trying to "submit their credentials to the American master."

Hizbullah MPs are now giving statements threatening to "reveal all the facts."  One MP (Hajj Ali) claimed that if it weren't for Hizbullah calming its base, the situation would be "more difficult" in Lebanon. The Shia community is united around the resistance, he said, downplaying reports of dissent within the Shia community (source: Future TV). At least two Shia Muftis have spoken against Hizbullah since the war ended.

Finally, I should add that the March 14 meeting on Thursday was attended by two defectors from Aoun's camp, Roger Azam and Elias Zogby. One of them, Elias Zogby, told al-Mustaqbal that he did not wish to follow policies that lead to objectives other than what he worked 35 years to achieve. "The March 14 forces today constitute the spirit and meaning of the independence uprising," he said.

Assassinations resumed

Today's assassination attempt of an interior ministry official, and the killing of 4 of his escorts, catapulted the Hariri investigation back into the limelight.

The Rmeileh bomb blast nearly killed Lieutenant-Colonel Samir Shehadeh, who holds a senior post in the Interior Ministry's intelligence branch and has played a leading role in Lebanon's investigation into the Hariri assassination.

According to Elaph, Shehadeh is the one who led the arrests of the four pro-Syrian generals implicated in the Hariri assassination.

Serge Brammertz is nearly done, and is expected to submit another report on September 30. A senior UN official is also expected in Beirut to sign a treaty with the government regarding the formation of the tribunal (which still awaits amendments to the Lebanese penal code—delayed by Berri's sit-in).

Acting interior minister Ahmad Fatfat said the assassination could be a "double-message" to the Interior Security Forces and the Lebanese army. According to Fatfat, the ministry's intelligence branch has also been playing an important role in the Lebanese army deployment in the south.

The Lebanese MPs looked sleepy and lethargic in their sit-in today. Berri even stood up and said the assassination was a "stab in the heart of the sit-in against the continuation of Israeli aggression."

Wael Abu Faour wondered whether it was a "coincidence" that Shehadeh happened to play a key role in the Hariri investigation, and that the attempt happened days before the Brammertz report, and hours before the arrival of a UN official to sign a treaty regarding the setting up of an international tribunal.

Hizbullah MP Mohammad Raad said the incident should be investigated and "should motivate us to be united. "

Speaking to reporters after the sit-in, Saad Hariri said Lebanese security is "target". "We reject this message, We hold the coward terrorists responsible," he said. When asked about whether this was intended to harm the tribunal, Hariri said, "Nobody can harm the international tribunal, there is national consensus on this that we arrived at during the National Dialogue."

Oh really?

A country under siege

Lebanon is still under siege: Israel by sea and air, and Syria by land and through proxy political warfare.

Beginning with the Israeli blockade, Walid Jumblatt has described it as a “stupid approach”, arguing that “plenty of arms were already in the country and the diverted trade benefited only Syria.” Mind you Jumblatt in the same interview said the “Lebanese army, which has sent 8,600 troops to the Syrian frontier and is deploying 15,000 in the south, did not have enough forces or equipment to control the border fully. “

The other blockade is led by Aoun, Hizbullah and Assad’s “remote controlled” allies, as Siniora called them once. Hizbullah and Aoun are still demanding a “national unity government”, threatening to use methods similar to what toppled the Karami government after the Hariri assassination. Lahoud is taking care of the Hariri tribunal by seeking to replace his one-time friend and ally justice minister Charles Rizk in order to make sure the international tribunal does not become a “foreign tool”, he recently claimed. His new buddy Aoun is helping pave the way for this change by calling the cabinet a “foreign embassy”, and accusing it of treason. (He is now demanding an investigation into what happened in Marjayoun, when the interior minister intervened, through negotiations, to release Lebanese security forces besieged by the Israeli army. In a swipe at Aoun, al-Mustaqbal's Tuesday edition featured a photo of Aoun (right) smiling at a handshake between an Israeli commander and one of Aoun's army generals, Issam Abu Jamra, 4 months after the 1982 invasion.)

But perhaps the most effective domestic blockade is the one imposed by Nabih Berri, whose “sit-in” has transformed the parliament into a sort of foreign ministry, sending emissaries to foreign embassies, and turning Lebanese MPs into anti-Israeli talking dolls.

A petition to hold an extraordinary session of parliament to legislate on matters related to the Hariri tribunal and funding post war construction efforts has been signed by 70 deputies so far, meaning the session will and should be held whether Lahoud likes it or not (only Lahoud and Siniora together could summon parliament in the absence of such a petition). But Berri is using the sit-in to delay the session, giving the pro-Assad forces in the country time to rally against the government. Bashar’s bosom buddy, Suleiman Franjieh is even calling for the abrogation of the Taef agreement (ie amending the constitution). The aim is not political reform as much as to return to the pre-Taef presidential system. All this fits rather well with Aoun’s project to rule the country unopposed, and Assad’s plan to topple Siniora, bury the Hariri investigation, and send UNIFIL back to where they came from.

Berri’s role in this has gone unnoticed by most. The man has been trying to neutralize the parliament’s majority since his brainchild the “National Dialogue” stole the functions of parliament. And now he wants the legislature to perform the function of the foreign ministry which he controls, and which has acted as a press office for Assad over the years.

When will this parliament majority wake up and realize that their “speaker” Mr X has not changed? When will they challenge the other blockade? Do we have to get to this bleak scenario, painted by… a member of that majority?!

Jumblatt said Lebanon's role as a diverse, multiconfessional land acting as a link between east and west was under threat. "It seems the Syrians, the Iranians, want to drag us out of this position to be part of the east, this dark east," he said… "But the young people, the people who had hope in Lebanon, the liberal-minded people, I think they won't stay here.

Bashar's promise

Soon after signing an “anti-imperialist” declaration with Venezualen president Hugo Chavez, who vowed from Damascus to ''dig the grave of imperialism'', Bashar Assad reportedly promised Kofi Annan he would implement a UN resolution he had previously labeled as a conspiracy.

Annan said Assad informed him that Syria would "take all necessary measures" to implement paragraph 15 of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls on countries to prevent the sale or supply of weapons to entities in Lebanon without the consent of the Lebanese government or U.N. peacekeepers. The U.N. chief also asked Syria to "use its influence" to win the release of three Israeli soldiers -- two captured by Hizbullah in a July 12 cross-border raid that started the war, and one captured by Hamas-linked militants in Gaza the previous month. Assad said he supported their release, but raised the issue of Syrian prisoners held in Israel, Annan said. "Syria is an important regional player, the international community is looking to Syria to play a constructive role in this crucial period," the U.N. chief said.

Assad probably reveled in these words, “important regional player”, after feeling increasingly isolated. Not so long ago, he took out his frustration on Siniora’s government (before he then invited him to visit Damascus), and claimed UNSC resolution 1701 was a Lebanese-Israeli conspiracy.

Mr Assad maintained that the continued deployment of the "resistance"--in other words, Hizbullah--in South Lebanon after Israel withdrew from the area in 2000 was essential as "a deterrent to Israeli aggression", and that the recent Israeli attacks had been prepared long in advance in order to neutralise this threat. He suggested that the May 17th group (a derogatory reference to the March 14th movement that emerged after the Ferbuary 2005 assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, linking them to the 1983 attempt by the Amin Gemayel government to signed a bilateral peace treaty with Israel) had colluded with Israel in its plans to seek the disarmament of Hizbullah by force. He also implied that certain Arab states had also been party to the conspiracy, whose latest manifestation was UN Security Council 1701, which was passed on August 8th and laid the basis for the eventual ceasefire. "Now we can establish the correlation between resolutions 1559, 1680 and 1701, the assassination of Hariri and the last war, on the one hand, and the role of these Lebanese forces and certain Arab forces on the other," he said.

Walid Jumblatt saw right though Assad’s “promise” to Annan.

“These are nice, sugarcoated words,” Lebanese Druse leader Walid Jumblatt, a virulently anti-Syrian politician, told Al-Arabiya television. “... (W)e know the Syrian double-talk. They say one thing to international envoys and implement another thing on the ground.”

Nicolas Nassif, an analyst with the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, said he suspected Mr. Assad was just posturing. “If Assad was serious about responding to international resolutions, we would have seen Syria improving its relations with Lebanon a long time ago,” he said.

Of course, according to Bashar’s foreign minister, there are no weapons crossing into Lebanon, so what is Bashar promising?

According to his foreign minister, Walid al-Moualem, Syria's foreign minister, later told reporters no weapons were crossing from his country to guerrillas in Lebanon: "No arms are being smuggled to the resistance [Hezbollah]."

Mouallem, as usual, is lying. And so is his master, who is an expert in promising cooperation to foreign dignitaries, and then doing some desperate neutralizing in hopes to create a few facts on the ground. After the March 14 demonstration, which hastened his humiliating withdrawal from the country, he embarked on a campaign of terror, which in its early phases killed Rafik Hariri on February 14, and evolved into sporadic targeted assassinations of prominent journalists and politicians who dared challenge his “word”.

When the killing campaign started to embarrass Hizbullah and other allies, especially after Aoun came on board, he switched to political terrorism. Faithful allies Nabih Berri and Hassan Nasrallah used the “National Dialogue” to buy time and sucker the insecure and weak March 14 coalition into believing that “consensus” and “dialogue” are an alternative to democracy (much like how now, there is talk of  promoting national unity and national unity government, which can be read as more political bullying, given that neither Aoun nor Hizbullah in power would ever cede control in the name of consensus, especially not Hzibullah, whose unililateralism we have all experienced). Assad’s allies in Lebanon, backed by the Syrian “media”, would often speak of a “fictitious” or "imagined” parliament majority (a  term coined by Michel Aoun after losing a few districts to Walid Jumblatt and Saad Hariri), while at the same time committing themselves in public to a "dialogue" with the same group.

There have been numerous times when the Lebanese blogosphere (or at least this blog) cried foul, realizing what was happening—a gradual emasculation and neutralization of March 14, and empowerment of Hizbullah, which climaxed on May 10, when Hizbullah and Aoun translated their “understanding” (euphemism for alliance) into street action. Affter months of threatening and bashing March 14 for taking to the streets and for democratically using people power (which to Aoun in pre-May 10 speeches was shameless, useless and meaningless), they staged a massive demonstration of a few hundreds of thousands to protest against the economic policy of the government-- an old Syrian intelligence trick used to bully Rafik Hariri whenever he disobeyed the master.

All that of course, in part, resulted from the failure of the March 14 leaders, and their shortsightedness. Had they not let the National Dialogue charade preempt the parliament, had they not felt intimidated by the “consensus” talk even when Hizbullah practiced no such thing, we would not be here today.

Needless to say, Hizbullah’s operation taught March 14 a painful lesson, and cost the country a lot. While this may be ground enough for their deposal, unfortunately for Lebanon, if they go, Assad and his friends will move in. (The tragic thing, it is not clear whether Hizbullah would continue to tolerate Aoun should that happen, but let’s hope this doesn’t happen.) For that has been the intention all along. And now that UNSC 1701 has given the Siniora government the upper hand, the need to topple it became a matter of life or death not only to March 14's opponents, but Assad.

Assad and co at first thought they could propagate the myth that Hizbullah won, in hopes that “victory” could turn the tables in Lebanon, and create a justification for a coup d’etat, disguised under “national unity government”.  As one of my readers pointed out (Fubar), whoever controls the government, controls UNIFIL, but most importantly, controls the Lebanese army’s mission. And let us not forget the Hariri investigation, which this war could not kill (as I feared it would), and that is now approaching an important stage.

Citing high-level Arab sources, (possibly Saudi) Elaph outlined a 3-stage "Syrian" plan to topple the Lebanese government. The “plan”, according to Elaph, began with Bashar’s speech and will end with a massive demonstration after Ramadan, and possibly a sit-in in downtown Beirut until the government collapses.

This brings me to my point. Assad’s talk and promises are hollow. He may promise to do all kinds of things with the Lebanese government, but which Lebanese government? The one he wants to topple, or the one he wants to see in power?

Update. Across the Bay follows up on the issue.

Right after Annan left Syria, Bashar's pitbulls, FM Walid Moallem and Information Minister Mohsen Bilal, made public statements that made Annan, and anyone else stupid enough to believe Assad, look like a fool. The Lebanese press knew it all along, as they've become quite accustomed to Assad's tactics.

(...)

The ministers first repeated cliches we'd been hearing for months on all the issues of contention: 1- border demarcation. Syria offered nothing new. "No demarcation in Shebaa." 2- Exchanging diplomatic representation. "It's a matter to be settled between the two countries when the atmosphere is better." And so on and so forth.

Not only that, the two pitbulls made even more revealing statements. For instance, Moallem talked about willingness to help patrol the Syrian-Lebanese border, but only after the establishment of "joint security committees." Now for those new to the Syrian lexicon, let me remind you of what the Syrians tried to do back in January, when the misguided Saudis and Egyptians were trying to "patch things up" with Syria (only to fail miserably, and predictably). Back then, the Syrians slipped a condition into an initiative by the Saudis that demanded (you guessed it) "joint security coordination" between Lebanon and Syria. Back then, Walid Jumblat called this charade for what it is: an attempt to reestablish Syrian domination of the security apparatus of the Lebanese government. Needless to say, such "coordination" would virtually ensure that Hezbollah get their rockets delivered, with cherry on top. But more than that, it reveals Syria's undying intent to redominate Lebanon. That, not the Golan, is Assad's real goal.

Read Anton Effendi's post in full here. More on the failed Saudi-Egyptian intitiative here.