As tempting as it is to lambast March 14 over their lack of imagination, critics of the movement's demands to bring down the Mikati government need to take a chill pill.
While there's some validity to the argument that the alliance is alienating past and potential allies, everyone needs to take a step back and look at the big picture.
There really is nothing left for March 14 to do except call for the downfall of this government and Najib Mikati in particular. The last thing Saad Hariri wants is for Mikati to consolidate his status as both a Sunni leader and a front for Hizbullah's various plots.
Those who believe Mikati could potentially be useful for March 14 miss the point. Mikati is a facade. He is an impotent figure who is serving to castrate Saad Hariri and eliminate any opposition to Hizbullah. He also serves to further weaken Hariri's standing on the Sunni street, which is already angry over the unchecked trespasses of Hizbullah.
Hizbullah moved the goal post a long time ago: First when they baited Aoun, and then when spooked Jumblatt out of March 14 and successfully installed Mikati as PM. Saad Hariri had to leave the country and watch as the Lebanese government slipped away from March 14's reach.
After al-Hassan's killing, Hariri's only security lifeline in the capital was eliminated, and indeed, any real security opposition to Hizbullah. Saad's chances of ever going back are minimal, and he is now officially reduced to an angry Twitter user.
Hariri's Twitter outburst last week was telling. He feels cornered and betrayed. Jumblatt has chosen to temporarily protect himself and his region by agreeing to keep Mikati afloat, and consequently Hizbullah's cover. It is one thing to be critical of the Assad regime, but another to up the ante against the militia that controls your livelihood. These are Lebanon's new rules post Mikati, and Jumblatt is a good player.
Hariri, on the other hand, has nothing to gain from keeping Mikati, especially after losing al-Hassan. We would be mistaken to believe that the current prime minister and the president can offer Hariri a way back into the country, or that any agreement with them could bolster his chances to stay politically relevant.
Look no further than Hizbullah's recent drone episode over Israel, which was admittedly used to spy on behalf of Iran. Here you have the Iranian-run militia continuing with its project without a single peep from the Mikati government. This confirms that Hizbullah sees this government, and the local politics that surround it, as conduits for their anti-Israel, pro-Iran agenda.
March 14 is undoubtedly in an extremely delicate position. They suddenly found themselves in a lose-lose situation. For that, their critics need to keep an eye on the bigger picture.
If the aim is to weaken Hizbullah's grip, then bringing down this government is by all means a step in the right direction, albeit not a complete one.
But if folks want to maintain the status quo and hope for a solution through the current cabinet, then here's the risk they have to consider: the cabinet or a Mikati-led variation of it will continue to provide an official Lebanese government cover for Hizbullah's operations outside the country, both in Syria and Israel.
I am inclined to side with March 14 on this one: Let Mikati fall. The anti-Hizbullah opposition and its supporters need a psychological victory, and the Iranian-led militia needs to be forced to recalculate.
