Indictment in Hariri assassination out; now what?

If we're to believe the media leaks, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon named 4 high ranking Hizbullah members as suspects in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. 

A delegation handed over the indictment a few hours ago to Judge Said Mirza, and is reportedly on its way to Syria to hand over the Syria-related indictment: meaning the suspects include Lebanese and Syrians. 

The question that hovers like a black cloud over much of Lebanon today is: now what?

Prime Minister Najib Mikati went on TV with panic on his face, blubbering something about national unity and quoting the slain prime minister that "no one is greater than Lebanon". He appeared shaken and weak and concluded with a laughable vow to prove to" those who wagered that the indictment will divide Lebanese, that victory will be for Lebanese unity". Considering how he got his post, and all the intimidation and threats that got him his nomination, not to mention his alliance with the very party suspected of killing the main political leader of his sect, I would say that Mikati today is an unenviable position. 

And everyone in Lebanon knows that Hizbullah sees itself above everyone else, and greater than any man-made country, except maybe Iran. 

The four arrest warrants reportedly handed over to Lebanese authorities include one for Imad Moghnieh's successor, Mustapha Badreddine, and 3 other members or leaders of the group. Some of these members are not likely to have acted alone, and have deep ties to the Iranian revolutionary guards, as is the case with Badreddine (again, according to media reports).

Mirza has not officially announced the details of the indictment yet. And it remains to be seen how Hizbullah will react, or more importantly, how Hariri's supporters will react on the streets of Beirut.  Hizbullah, of course, has been preparing for this moment for months, if not years. The group is omnipresent, thanks to its demographic expansion, land-buying practices, and embedding with its Christian allies. It now has a more significant presence in the cabinet, and in most Lebanese security agencies, with the exception of the ISF's Information Branch. 

Mirza has 30 days to arrest the four suspects.  He has already paid a visit to Mikati. And the latter has to decide how far he can go opposing the international community and the sentiments of people from his own sect (and other Lebanese who still believe in the concept of justice).  

 

Comments

[R]

Good to see you posting again AK (if only on special occasions).
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the obvious prediction is tough times for Lebanon. You have a Hizbulla that is getting increasingly cornered on more than one front: They are faced with 1) Unifil stifling their freedom of activity in the south, 2) having a prime logistic ally embattled in Assad, and now 3) reportedly being accused of the Hariri assasination.
The first of the above 3 was sufficient to eventually lead to the infamous may takeover of Lebanon and I shudder to think what the other two will lead to...
On the other hand, HA created an unsustainable situation in Lebanon arguably (at least) since the 90s but more so recently and they were never going to go away easily. In other words, eventually the shit was going to hit the fan and Lebanon has been in self-denial and crisis-management mode for the longest time without any hope of long-term prosperity. It seems we have had our own version of the stability of the (horrible) status quo Vs the uncertainty of the unknown - a situation that has come to head in the arab world... Lebanon will be no exception...

[The Other Tony]

So Najib Mikati really thought he could be the savior. The one who would rescue Lebanon :) what vanity will do to a leader who should have known better.......

so Mr Mikati, Mr Prime Minister, show us what you're really made of or rather show us how in one fool swoop you are going to piss off your entire sect, half the population that you are supposed to represent, the international community (save Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and possibly Russia and China) and quite possibly ruin your political career.....over to you pal!

[OldHand]

R is right, this is the result of kicking the can down the road, by M14 idiots (and Saudi and the West etc), one time too may.

Starting with helping Hezballah in the UN resolution in 2006, to the downtown takeover, to repeating "muqawamah" like idiots, to our shameful speech and vote at the UN supporting Bashar (Hariri gvmnt), to finally NOW saying the indictment involves "only individuals not an organization" (never know when to STFU)...

NOW again, after years in charge of the gvmnt, they want to take it back to stand up to Hezballah's wacko agenda?

Denial and delusion got the Arabs and Lebanese nowhere and still...

[Marillionlb]

30 days will pass and the Lebanese government will claim having done his part (searching for the 4 alleged culprits) but to no avail. Another 30 days of public announcements....etc and the 4 are still nowhere to be found (well hidden between Iran and Syria), and that will be the end of it (trial in absentia). As for our neighbor in the north Bashar is not about to fall in the immediate future nor will we see another spring revolution in Iran this summer, and therefore Hizbullah's situation is not as dire as many perceive it to be.
As for M14 and their promise to topple the government democratically, well I will not hold my breath. This bunch of wimps have disappointed me one time too many and I very much doubt that suddenly they have grown a bunch of b..ls !
By the end of summer, when the situation in Syria becomes clearer we might have a better indication as to whether we are heading towards confrontation or not.

[Min Canada]

Folks keep your eyes on the prize. Nothing that is happening and will happen in Lebanon this year is material. The whole STL may be a simple punctuation point when all is said and done. This coup started in Damascus when Bashar took a gesture of good will from Saad and turned it into the drama of the "false witnesses" It will all end in Damascus some time next year. The rest is noise.

[ahmed]

not many lebanese i know, including myself, have the same 'concept' of justice as you do - nor any europeans. Justice for me does not include publicly pro-Israeli investigators, nor leaks-for-bribes chiefs, nor closed-door chit-chat sessions with prosecutors. The 'concept' of justice also calls for allegations against suspects to be known, not to be 'secret' (ofcourse, unless a bribe is available) and has to be even-handed - not to exclude inconvenient evidence. Why do you not condemn the tribunal for condemning those who are now considered innocent (i.e. Syria), nor do you use common sense when analysing how the tribunal has U-Turned on Syria, to now indict Hezbollah - but alas, you indirectly condemn the revolutionary guard of Iran. What, oh what did Harriri do to the revolutionary guards and Hezbollah. You were so convinced it was Syria 5 years ago, and now so convinced it was Hezbollah and tomorrow Iran and after maybe even North Korea.

I don't see you calling with such vehemency for an investigation into the atrocities Israel committed against Lebanon 5 years ago, and I don't blame you, because nor does your government. Just because the war did not affect your community - or 'sect' as you so prefer to keep mentioning - nor shred your family/coreligionists does not make it any less of a just cause - nor does the wealth gap between those victims. To the contrary, because so much more was destroyed and/or killed in the war, if anything, it is a more justice-related case. Or does justice for one man - and the very nature of such a concept - outweigh that of the other hundreds?

Really, what a farce. If this happened in Europe where I reside, I know that the very 'concept' of 'international' interference would be outright rejected, and if the national tribunal even resembled the shambled that is STL, outright ridiculed.

Have some common sense, man.

[R]

1) Ahmed, pursuing justice in one case does not preclude pursuing it in another case.
2) If Israel's crimes against Lebanon should be brought to court, then so should HA's against Israel.
3) The accusation against HA in the Hariri case is at this point just an accusation by the prosecutor. They have a chance to publicly defend themselves in court, and the public can judge the fairness of the process.
4) The current round of indictments against HA members, do not preclude indictments against Syrian officials - I would argue that it foreshadows them.
5) Your second paragraph is deeply disturbing. My family needed to leave their homes in a frenzy, twice in the last 5 years. The first was during the 2006 war and the second was during the May 2008 "incidents".
6) The question of whether the crimes of the 2006 war should be brought to justice is an important one, and I agree that it should be fully investigated and war criminals, if any are found, should be brought to justice - on both sides of the border.

[elias]

Thirty days have almost passed and as expected, nothing has happened, and Nasrallah’s dramatic speech only confirmed my assurance that he and his party are guilty of this crime. When I saw his speech and his so-called “evidence”, I didn’t know if I should laugh or cry that some people are actually convinced by this ridiculous nonsense.
I think this hilarious video sums it up pretty well:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtLXd7f5X6U

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[mark]

Folks keep your eyes on the prize. Nothing that is happening and will happen in Lebanon this year is material. The whole STL may be a simple punctuation point when all is said and done. This coup started in Damascus when Bashar took a gesture of good will from Saad and turned it into the drama of the "false witnesses" It will all end in Damascus some time next year. The rest is noise.