Aoun, Bassil and March 14's resistance against Hizbullah

Those following the cabinet formation circus in Lebanon must be puzzled by two things: Aoun's flagrant nepotism, and March 14's inability to explain why, given how cabinet appointments are made in this country, Aoun is not being allowed to name the minister of his choice.

Gebran Bassil might not be the most inspiring choice for telecom minister (a post that he currently holds), and indeed, he seems like a really bad one, but what, really, is the issue with him? His incompetence? Qualities a different FPM minister could bring to the table that Bassil can't?

It appears that there is more at play here. Bassil, after all, is a mini Aoun, imitation-folly at best.  He has the demonstrated ability to be obstructive and the willingness to bend the FPM's own alleged ideals to service the interests of his father in law, and more importantly, those of Hizbullah. For that, Aoun sees him as the preferred choice.

What we have here is a distrustful Aoun (of his own party) on the one hand, and on the other, an unspoken March 14 concern that Hizbullah's continued indirect control of the telecommunications ministry means no serious reform of the sector will take place, and that eavesdropping and domestic spying by Hizbullah will continue. It is not a secret that the party of perpetual "resistance" benefitted a lot from Bassil's control of the ministry, on many levels, including turning a blind eye to the existence of Hizbullah's private telecommunication network. 

March 14, and Saad Hariri in particular, has not been able to present a strong and convincing public argument against keeping Bassil as a minister. The PM designate probably does not wish to ruffle Hizbullah's feathers at a point the public thinks he has their blessings, though this might change following Hizbullah's recent criticism. Instead, Hariri's people have been resorting to arguments about nepotism, cohesiveness in the cabinet, ineligibility of those who lost elections, and lame and unimaginative accusations about Israeli-linked internet networks.

Hizbullah's defense of Aoun's demand wasn't a surprise, and takes advantage of Hariri's weak strategy, although their argument that there is no legal reason for election losers to become ministers contradicts their (and Aoun's) opposition to March 14 presidential candidates who had lost parliamentary elections (think Nassib Lahoud).

March 14, or what's left of it after Jumbaltt's departure, shouldn't be shy to point out Hizbullah's role here, and their continued use of Aoun and the FPM as cannon fodder. Anyone bemoaning the return of Syria to Lebanon should pause and reflect on how Hizbullah has pretty much filled the role previously played by Syrian intelligence. The Party of God has been playing the role of occupier since the May 7, 2008 invasion of Beirut and the apparently galvanizing attack on Jumblatt's Chouf. 

There is more at stake here than just a game of stubbornness and obstruction.  Unfortunately, Jumblatt was the one who once tasked himself with "exposing" some of Hizbullah's motivations, and their agenda to turn the country into an ideological concentration camp. Now that Jumblatt is on the divine victory bandwagon, singing the praises of the resistance "past, present, and future"-- , and lecturing Hariri about Sunni Islam, March 14 finds itself lacking the ability to throw punches.

There is no doubt that March 14's victory in the elections was dealt a severe blow following Jumblatt's defection. This battle against Aoun over the telecom ministry would have been easier to fight with him on board. In 2008, Hariri backed a "Walid Jumblatt government" that didn't hesitate to take on Hizbullah. Today, he is being told to head a government of "true partnership" that will arguably be weaker and less effective than the ones Siniora headed. No wonder Saad seems so despondent at times. The resistance against Hizbullah's and Syrian domination has just become a lot harder.  One wonders if he would have agreed to the premiership had Jumblatt announced his decision sooner. But that is a different discussion.

Comments

[Gebran Sons]

AK you are correct about the hypocrisy of Lebanese politics in cooking government. Still the defining issue for the next 4 years remains Jumblat's political earthquake. We should not too quickly move away from the serious implications of what Jumblat did because of the weight he carries in his community and the nation. I believe this blog is a great forum to carry on this discussion considering the insightful opinions and variety of perspectives, as I'm sure events will keep bringing Jumblat actions back to the center of news.

Jumblat is not making peace with Shia but is siding with Basij and Ahmadinajad's Hizbollah to keep oppressing the Shia. Just look at those Stalin-style trials in Tehran mixed with a Mao-style cultural revolution and a North-Korea type parades, blind obedience and mind control to understand the divide in Iranian society. Ahmadinajad has declared war on the most educated, professional, productive and innovative segment of society. Short term, his Basij has succeeded in brutally suffocating freedom in what will be known as Tehran Spring. In two years, he'll be on trial like Tito, Mussolini and other dictators. Ahmadinajad depends on increased oppression and intimidation to control the situation which guaranties his fall as soon as opposition has time to reorganize, first abroad and then internally, and then liberate Iranians from this monstrous regime and the supreme inquisitor. The genie is out of the bottle and Ahmadinajad is living on borrowed time. Nassrallah is a carbon copy of Ahmadinajad and Hizbollah of Basij. Lebanese Shia will increasingly realize the shared hopes and objectives with Iranian students and see the parallels between Hizbollah and Basij. Jumblat has just sided with oppression and intimidation and has committed the political mistake of his life that will define his legacy. As Aoun, he has turned into another useful idiot and a hired assassin of the freedom and independence principles of the Cedar Revolution. He has chosen the dark side of the moon as the light is getting brighter throughout Lebanon.

[blackpoint]

Gebran Sons says, "Lebanese Shia will increasingly realize the shared hopes and objectives with Iranian students and see the parallels between Hizbollah and Basij."

Well, that is good news, because...

"...many Arab prison guards with Lebanese accents..."

http://azarmehr.blogspot.com/2009/08/fath-ol-mobin-codename-for-rape.html

Yes, good to know that the Lebanese Shia will realize...they are not complicit in this, at least not intentionally...soon they will realize... /sarc off

/OT Good to have you back in the long war, AK.

[Shunkleash]

Welcome back AK...it was only a matter of time:-)

[vox p.]

Nepotism? How did our PM-designate rose to such a position? Through hard-work or by being the son of another dick-head?

And if reforming the telecommunication sector means selling it on the cheap to Hariri & Co., I'd rather have Claoun and his mini-me in charge, they may be populist baster but at least they managed to lower the monthly rate.

[Gebran Sons]

Blackpoint, you have an excellent and courageous blog. I don’t think you are welcome in Ahmadinajad’s Iran and that’s a heavy price to pay. Our region needs more people like you who’s allegiance is not to politicians but to the eternal principles of freedom, democracy, human rights, human dignity and environment protection. These are wonderful principles that bind all of us regardless if we live in Lebanon, Iran, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia or Burma. I have absolute conviction that these principles always win at the end. Political dinosaurs in Lebanon have been dropping one after another and blind allegiance is loosing its grip on a more sophisticated and connected generation. Our Cedar Revolution and your Green Revolution are just the beginning. It may only take a Lebanese or Iranian Obama to capture the hopes and aspirations of the silent majority and cause a paradigm shift in politics. Anyway, Gebran Sons are now less interested in day-to-day politics and more in developing measurable goals that should be accomplished by the new government to move towards a transparent democracy, accountable government, effective judiciary, efficient public services and social and economic infrastructure to absorb people talents. I believe these are shared objectives among all of us and hopefully we can cooperate on developing a workable path towards true democracy. We also need concrete steps that ordinary persons can understand to fight corruption, identify and punish influence peddling, protect the environment, enact a bill-of-rights to safeguard foreign workers, improve living standards in refugee camps, abolish capital punishment, and institute volunteering service as part of school curriculum. Information technology has an important role. Public services should be automated and made available online. Government incomes and expenditures from all ministries should also be available online for any citizen to check and have a say in determining priorities in spending public funds. There is also a need for independent, trustworthy and credible watchdog organizations to provide an objective assessment of the performance of public institutions and politicians. And the list goes on… It is a daunting list but both Lebanese and Iranians, more than any other country in the region, are capable of a much better government and have a public base and institutional knowledge to reach a genuine democracy.

[Qifa Nabki]

I have the feeling that Saad knew about Jumblatt's conditions before he went about accepting the nomination. He probably expected him to wait until after the cabinet was formed before deciding to formally leave March 14.

I'm wondering whether it even makes sense for Saad to continue, at this point. With neither a popular majority nor a political one, he's going to be seriously hamstrung for the next four years. Why not let the opposition get a little scuffed up instead?

[blackpoint]

"Blackpoint, you have an excellent and courageous blog."

azarmehr.blogspot.com is not my blog. But, I agree, it is an excellent and courageous blog.

"I don’t think you are welcome in Ahmadinajad’s Iran...

LOL. Yeah, that's the general consensus.

"Our region needs more people like you..."

While I might agree, at least with the general proposition, if not all the specifics you list, don't worry, I won't let all of your misdirected praise go to my head.

"It is a daunting list but both Lebanese and Iranians, more than any other country in the region, are capable of a much better government and have a public base and institutional knowledge to reach a genuine democracy."

Yes, well, I think Iran will have to go first because, in Lebanon, aimlessly kicking the ball down the field is the whole game (no victors, no vanquished). Pong is fun to play the first couple times but not much of a challenge after that. Amazing how hard the Lebanese politicians can make it look. But, at least they have something to do while they wait.

Anyway, good luck with your quest, Gebran Sons.

[Marillionlb]

Not much has changed since the last election. M14's victory is shallow and nothing is bound to change. Even if Saad manages to form a new government HA and Aoun have proven over and over again that they control the country, and if they don't they can freeze time.
Tfeh!

N.B: Good to have you back !wz96f8

[naja]

"at least they managed to lower the monthly rate." Oh that's alright then, never mind the fact that the number of dropped calls is frightening, the internet is a slight improvement on dial-up, competition remains forbidden and the value-added mobile services are practically in the dark ages compared to, oh, Algeria (and I mean it).

Oh and, re.nepotism, it's not that Saad is not one in our national collection. It's just that I seem to recall a certain Aoun spitting venom at, well, what's that word again?

[Ghassan Karam]

Sa'ad Hariri does not have what it takes to be a PM. Don't forget that he discovered politics only when his father was assassinated. The best thing that he can do forhimself and the country is to call it quits and retire completely from politics. Who needs a PM who is a puppet in the hands of the Saudi monarchy anyway? And let us not kid ourselves by giving Basil that much importance. He is being used as a distraction for the incomptence of Hariri who has most probably agreed to Saudi-Syrian demands to form a so called "national unity" government even before he was designated as a PM.
A Lebanese PM is supposed to form a cabinet that will work for the good of the nation, he is not to form a cabinet that satisfies the Saudis, Syrians, Egyptians etc... Sa'ad Hariri cannot deliver a Lebanese cabinet but is instead playing for time until his foreign masters send in their instructions regarding the shape of the cabinet in view of the fact that Israel has made it clear that HA must not be part of the cabinet.
It is so unfortunate that neither the opposition nor Al Mustaqbal have the interests of the country at heart. Hezbollah have been dictating their demands either directly or indirectly for over three years while Saniora and know Hariri make a mess of governing. Pity the nation whose leaders on both sides of the aisle are preoccupied in satisfying orders that they get from overseas.

[Gebran Sons]

Equating those who block government for personal interests and the effectiveness of Saad who have used all his connections to benefit Lebanon is laughable. If M8 forms the government, our economy will collapse at the first budget deficit refinancing efforts. No one is perfect, but Saniora may be the best prime minister Lebanon ever had, and today no one is qualified more than Saad.

Jumblat distancing himself from M14 would have been an astute move if it was after government formation and in coordination with Berri moving away from M8 for a centrist block in support of the president and public institutions. Nonetheless, Jumblat timing was wrong because it irreparably harmed Saad, torpedoed people’s mandate expressed at the 2009 elections, and provided M8 and Aoun the excuse they needed to blackmail a weaken PM designate and prevent any serious reforms a younger more-business like Saad government could undertake. The only beneficiaries from Jumblat actions are Hizbollah, Assad and Ahmadinajad, all at the expense of Jumblat’s credibility and foresight.

Though the timing was wrong, M14 needed a shock because feudal and civil war leaders were once again misappropriating the mandate of the silent majority and the Cedar Revolution related to democracy, independence and justice. Christians in particular need to develop a new generation of leaders with a worldwide expertise that can not only modernize politics in Lebanon, but also bring our social, economic, legal and public infrastructures to the 21st Century and integrate us with the world economy. Hizbollah’s influence can be easily neutralized and limited to its zone of influence with its rhetoric of war and threats, while the rest of Lebanon should be transformed into the Silicon Valley of the Middle East and the primary choice for multinational firms and research and development campuses in the region. If long-term peace can be secured, no other country in the region can compete with Lebanon on these grounds regardless of how many incentive they provides. Lebanese Christians should also start planning for a common economic market in the Arab World and forms the basis for political integration similar to the EU that replaced a thousand bloody year European history with one of the most successful and supported political and economic integration in the world. Regardless of Ahmadinajad’s claims, the main beneficiary from the Iranian-Arab conflict is the west selling more arms, nuclear plants, and protection influence. It is hard to find any Arab Gulf country that doesn’t have a US or European military base. Petro funds should be spent on more urgent issues facing the region than on arms and nuclear plants.

The capital mistake of jumblat is not moving away from M14, but providing a blank support to Hizbollah, the main assassins of the Cedar revolution and democracy, at a time Hizbollah is trying to instigate a destructive war between the Lebanese army and Israel that will weaken state institutions, bankrupt the middle class, destroy our economy, and allow Ahmadinajad’s Hizbollah to completely take over Lebanon and extinguish by force and intimidation any opposition. Jumblat in the past showed incredible personal courage in exposing Hizbollah’s danger and was a pillar of the Cedar Revolution. Flipping 180 degrees will ultimately destroy him politically as the beast cannot be appeased but uses any weakness to devour its opponents. He should remember that Hizbollah is created, armed and funded by Iranian radicals, and it is incompatible with Lebanese freedom and democracy that define our country from all others. Hopefully he will leave the dark side of the moon and rejoin the light shining from Lebanese democracy. A light sustained and nurtured by the sacrifices of the Cedar Revolution martyrs. Jumblat will certainly be welcomed back to the side of freedom and democracy as Lebanon has no meaning without its Druze and Maronite communities that give Lebanon its special shine that cannot be extinguished or duplicated.

[Ghassan Karam]

"Jumblat will certainly be welcomed back to the side of freedom and democracy as Lebanon has no meaning without its Druze and Maronite communities"

I would hope that there would be a Druze community with or without Jumblatt.When would the age of political Feudalism ever wane in Lebanon?

[blackpoint]

Ghassan, you should not be so quick on the draw. GS is an idealist, yes, but then, so are you (Yes We Can). The age of political feudalism is not going to wane in Lebanon anytime soon, and you know it. So, in the meantime, you have to work with it.

Besides, what happens if Lebanon becomes a true democracy, one person, one vote? The Christians are out numbered by the Muslims (Sunni and Shia), so if those two don't go to war with each other for total domination, the Christians can pretty much pack their bags, because a true democracy means the majority rules, not respect for minority rights. Respect for minority rights comes from a Western (read Judeo/Christian) world view. We all know that Muslim rule does not inherently respect minority rights, ie. jizya. So, Lebanon's minority sects are essential to development of a modern, representative democracy, with guaranteed minority rights.

Intellectual honesty demands that you, Ghassan, give on the point -- the essence of Lebanon is feudalism and, until that is no longer a matter of sect survival in Lebanon, the Druze will go where Jumblatt goes. Just as the "Free Shia" of Lebanon can be measured on one hand as compared to Hezbollah's faithful.

BTW, for a progressive, it is surprising that you missed out on poetry class in college, Ghassan. In an attempt to awaken Jeha, and at the same time prove my point, I will confess to having left the anonymous poetic post in Jeha's comments section:

http://jehasnail.blogspot.com/2007/06/legacy-systems.html

You, Ghassan, completely missed the point of that poem, or perhaps I should say poetic lament (FYI, Amrika heech ghalati nemitavanad bokonad = America cannot do a damned thing), and Gebran's Sons showed poetic prescience:

"When everything you do fails, keep blaming it on the West

Because if you hide for a moment your American Satan,

Your people will quickly recognize you as the Great Satan."

Well played, Gebran's Sons.

Anyway, Jumblatt was the backbone of M14 when it needed a spine. That he did not get, in return, what he needed when he needed it is not due to lack of effort on his part. I should think that he would be welcomed back.

Just saying...

/AK, I tire of making up email addresses. Is that really necessary?

[Ghassan Karam]

Blackpoint,
I know of only one person who has the "memory" and ability to use archives as well as you have demonstrated and his name is Fubar LOL.

[Vulcan]

From Little Habana Miami we welcome you back comrade AK, handing out M14's and cuban cigars for you and the rest of the comrades here... for this indeed is the long war.

[Acaislim]

Welcome back AK...it was only a matter of time:-)

[naja]

C'mon AK, a growing groundswell of popular demand wants your take on events. Once a week should do it! (I promise I'll contribute if you do that)

[Umm K.]

I keep bugging him too...hopefully he'll have time to whip up a post soon!

[The New Phoenicians]

Even though the subject and its comments are very interesting, I personally think it doesn’t matter how the cabinet is formed, who is in it, or what Jumblat or any other current “Political Leader” does. In all cases the Lebanese situation will not improve as long as the current idiots/criminals/corrupt politicians are in power. Are we counting on the same people that caused the Lebanese civil war, and got us to the point where we are now to actually work on improving Lebanon? The Lebanese should start thinking of the after “March 8/March 14” era by thinking about how to change the entire Lebanese system and most importantly its leaders.

I am holding the following blog about Sectarianism and I would welcome any comments.
http://thelebanesesystem.blogspot.com/