A "true partnership" to avoid

It's tornado season in Lebanon.  The balance of power is out of whack, awaiting Saad Hariri's return from his surprise vacation to resume his consultations to form a cabinet.

Just last week, Hassan Nasrallah was singing the praises of the upcoming cabinet, which seemed like a done deal. So perfect it was going to be, Nasrallah even described it as a "true partnership". This wouldn't be laughable if it weren't coming from the man who refuses to partner up with the state's institutions.

In fact, the only hurdle left by July 31 was that crazy man Michel Aoun, who was whining that "nobody consulted him", insisting on making his son in law minister.  

The formula was going to look like this: 15-10-5.  

Cut to today. Jumblatt, who was going to be represented in March 14's 15 share,  decided to break with his partners by suddenly renouncing their slogans—which he had helped formulate.

Is this the "true partnership" that Nasrallah was talking about? One where Jumblatt is neutral, or neutralized, and Hariri unable to command a majority in the cabinet, or block any attempt to knock out UNSC 1701?

During the parliamentary elections, many in Lebanon were convinced that Jumblatt was going to ally himself with Hizbullah. The transformation was ready, but Jumblatt didn't do it. Maybe it was Biden. Maybe it was something else. He instead chose to stay in the March 14 camp, even giving up a few seats for the sake of his former trench buddies.  Whether or not he had then decided to claim his independence at a later stage is left for the history books.

Hariri and Geagea have opted to flee the country than face the new reality that their former death list buddy created. After all, the day has come when Wiam Wahab is saying good things about his former enemy, bestowing Syrian amnesty on the man who once wished to overthrow the Assad regime. And Jumblatt has miraculously rediscovered "Palestine and Arabism", so "Lebanon First" now sounds... phoenician. Saad Hariri, by Jumblatt's new benchmark, appears like  the leader of the Sunni version of the New Phoenicians. Who knew that Beirut's Sunni's are less attached to Palestine than Lebanon's Druze?

With Jumblatt today coupling his support for Hariri with a clarification that the Druzes' survival depends on a rejection of Lebanese sovereignty as March 14 defines it (demarcation of border with Syria, end of Syrian interference), the balance of power in the country appears to have suddenly tilted back towards Hizbullah.

Jumblatt has violated the terms of the agreement with March 14. In theory, Saad and his remaining allies need to gather their strength, give Walid a big hug, and tell him to go find neutrality elsewhere, and quit asking for a change in slogans.   

Of course this is easier said than done. Mostly because, March 14's strength, if that existed, emanated from the men who made it, not so much the principles or the "slogans" they devised.  Just as Lebanon depended on a pact between men, March 14 was, at times, nothing more than a marriage of convenience.

Saad's choice is not easy. The producer has left the building. The young Hariri has to go it alone without his father's friend, and grow up fast, real fast, if he is to stop the country from sailing towards Nasrallah's "true partnership". 

Comments

[Gebran Sons]

Haven't anyone noticed that somehow Jumblat, Aoun, Nassrallah, Ahmadinajad and Assad are increasingly becoming irrelevant... This may be their last act... few care to listen anymore. I'm sure no one will miss them if we get a government of technocrats with sepcific objectives and an action plan to lead us into the new horizons and transform Lebanon into the silicone valley of the ME.

[maverick]

Silicone valley of the ME? Cedar Island Project? Capitalists playground.....fantastic. Lets forget about the Electricity problem, and the poverty, lack of sanitary water, ridiculous prices,and the rest of it.Yaaay for technocrats.
Good post AK, but id like to interject that it doesnt have to be a battle between Harriri vs. Nasrallah and the two supporting camps.I believe where going to see a little more wieght in the middle.Lebanon has always been divided in half on every single other issue. I think the coming period,granted by the foreign powers,will point the spotlight on centre stage.

[Bad Vilbel]

It would actually be a welcome change to have a centrist movement in Lebanon, as opposed to the highly polarized extremes we have now, and their broken outdated ideologies and rhetoric.

However, I don't see that happening.

[Samo]

A government of technocrats? ...why not? this type of govt may actually be the way out at this time. However, the March 8 alliance will in no way accept such a govt. It's clear now why they accepted the 15-10-5 make-up of the up n coming govt of "national unity". Having inside knowledge that Jumblatt's break from the March 14 alliance was just a matter of time, they knew that the majority's allocation of 15 ministers will soon be reduced to just 12. So the majority will become the new minority, and the overturning and cancellation of the 09 election results will be complete.

[danny]

Well this is becoming more of a borscht then political dilemma...Is there a method to this madness? It seems all sides are equally confused! Jumblat's move seems to be the one to protect the druse as well as give the Rat Nassy his sought after "gaurantees"...I have a feeling Saad as well as other M14s knew of this scenario long ago!

In this whirlpool or should I say cesspool Lebanese thrive as business as usual as Israel rachets up the rhetoric...

[Samo]

Does anyone else have this sense of de ja vu that I'm having? In 2006 Lebanon was having it's best tourist season since the "end" of civil hostilities in 91. the band of brothers were having a "7iwar" on the defence strategy and the furture of HA's weapons. Everything was looking bright and on the up. We were promised that the year will end peacefully, and that the tourist season was going to be the best on record. Then one bright and sunny morning the shit hit the fan, and those that arrived on 5 star cruise liners were happy to high tail it in the cargo hold of a greek battle ship! Beirut's legendary party scene is currently making midea headlines worldwide - CNN, NY times etc.. we've been told that the year will end peacefully, and that we're having the best tourist season on record!! Is it just me?

[Umm K.]

AK--what happened to the comment section on the other post? You close them by accident?

[naja]

I don't believe it. I just don't believe it.
just posted a comment on blacksmiths bemoaning the disappearance of the blogs I, well, need. And then I noticed a familiar banner.
wb, AK. Oh wb, big time. You have no idea how much you've been missed.

[AK]

Thanks, Naja. I missed you guys enormously. :)