Lebanese deserve carrots too

I don't know about you, but I am getting tired of all the assassination talk. First it was Suleiman Franjieh predicting that a major incident similar to the Hariri assassination will rock the nation of Lebanon.  And now March 14 deputies are predicting killings to "muddle the International Tribunal's work and monopolize people's decisions before the 2009 parliamentary elections".

These prognostications are taking place against a backdrop of high level visits to Assad's Syria and Iran, making the situation seem all the more absurd.

Nothing protects you against murder and inspires confidence like sending your top general to meet and seek military assistance from those who killed your country's former prime minister and massacred a bunch of MPs and journalists!

Sending the army commander so soon to Syria, and without any kind of coordination with the cabinet, sends another signal that Lebanon's military, exclusively led by the president, is following its own convoluted agenda. Michel Suleiman is using his meeting with Bashar a couple of months ago as a mandate to appease the Assad regime and force a normalization of ties between the two countries before borders are even demarcated. And just last week, this same president signed a 5-year "security pact" with the Iranian regime to supply Lebanon with "defensive weapons to be agreed upon in the framework of a defensive strategic system the Lebanese will formulate".

These activities make any fears about the harmful effects of engagement by the US and Europe look ridiculous, since the parties who will allegedly get hurt are now doing a lot worse (mind you Jumblatt is not too happy, and neither is March 14, but they're postponing any real opposition until after the elections). But if Lebanese officials are driven by a morbid sense of pragmatism, mixed with good old subservience and treason by some, there is no reason for some Western powers not to offer them all some backbone. Do Lebanese people not deserve carrots? Talk to the Syrians and Iranians all you want, but unless you have masochistic desires to see Lebanon turn into an Iranian satellite, do direct some effort to warn the delusional and disillusioned against signing the country away in defense agreements and joint security committees. 

Comments

[Jeha]

Well, "Life is a carrot", as we say in Lebanon. So maybe all this political shenanigans is really about carrots.

Et J'ai bien peur qu'On ne se fasse carrotter.

[Traffic]

No we don't deserve carrots. We are a nation that deserves nothing better than misery and suffering... Just contemplate Aoun’s visit to Syria and the fact that people still cheer him, and the fact that Hezeb supporters are such a hopeless case that we don’t even bother to hold them accountable for choosing to support a terrorist organization…

[Meghwar]

AK, Lebanese deserve carrots yes ...but not to eat'em....

Traffic ,
Cl-Aoun is just performing his "gig" in "Syr-cus"
enjoy the show ...
"Ma haddan ra2 wou neddem" :)

[ghassan karam]

This brief note is slightly off topic. (Is anything regarding Lebanon off topic ? :-)). Anyway I have just finished dreading the article in the Dec 2008 The Atlantic by Joshua Hammer about the international tribunal. The article is well researched but does not break new ground except for one item. Mr. Hammer met with and interviewed Detlev Mehlis who told him in very clear language that he was chased out of Beirut. The Un and other intelligence services told him that he was no longer safe in Beirut and that is why he left. To me, this is another indictment of Bashar Assad and his regime. Who else would have been able to get Mehlis to quit? My question to the readers of B2B is the following: Am I the only one who did not know that Mehlis was forced to leave or was this a well known fact.

[Rima]

Ghassan K

I am relatively new to the Blog but I read previous posts. I thought your contribution along with others as well added a lot of value to the discussions that were taking place. I hope you guys come back and start writing again.

Regarding Mehlis, many people assumed that he was forced to leave Lebanon for security reasons. The new fact here is that he admitted that.

[naja]

Actually Ghassan, in one of my posts, oh, ages ago now, I recall mentioning an interview with Mehlis in which he did speak of heightened security fears being one of the reasons why he did not want to carry on. Nevertheless, I still maintain that Detlev actually completed his job: he had reached all the conclusions needed to be reached in a swift, highly mediatised, but frankly thrilling investigation. The fact that his successors hardly moved an inch since underlines this very point as well as the fact that, in my view, DM got to the truth a bit quicker than many - UN included - would have liked him to.

[ghassan karam]

Naja,
For whatever it is worth, Joshua Hammer comes to the same conclusion that you came to. He claims that Brammertz spent the two years reinvestigating the case all over again without adding anything substantive to the case besides finding a tooth that allegedly belonged to the bomber. Unfortunately Mr. Hammer thinks, and I have shared that thought for some time, that most probably Bashar Assad will be protected by "plausible deniability" and that a few low ranking officers will be sacrificed.

[Jeha]

Yes,

It was clear to all that Mehlis was kicked out of Beirut. The Tueni assassination was a clear message to him, among other things; Gebran was killed on a shortcut that the UN investigator often takes to bypass Mkalless' traffic clog.

There were other incidents as well that only served to highlight his exposure, as well as the hopeless state of the penetration of the Lebanese Security Forces by Syrian and Iran SS.

[ghassan karam]

J,
If all of Lebanon knew that DM was forced to flee the country then why didn't the Lebanese media highlight this fact . But what is even more important was the silence of the Lebanese officials who must have also known about these specific threats. Nothing justifies their inaction . By chosing to say and do nothing they have in effect become part of the "plotters" whose only aim is to continue terrorizing Lebanon through intimidation and violence. Unfortunately what passes for medis and what is allegedly a government that is expected to protect the law and the citizens have failed us for the umpteenth time.
Yes there is salvation but not until the victims (citizens) decide to rise against all those that have abused and exploited them. A good time to start is the next election. Realistically though, nothing will change and the exploitaion will go on by both sides. Pity the Lebanese law abiding citizen.

[naja]

GK, if my memory serves me right, the lebanese media did report what DM said in his interview, re. fears for his security. But as usual, it was diligent reporting at best, as journalism in Lebanon is usually a matter of quoting leaders and occasionally voicing opinion which, depending on the publication, is little more than preaching to the converted. As for officials and the security departments, there's little they can do against what is after all terrorist threats. I certainly won't defend them (good God, I couldn't if I tried!) but realistically, what chance have they got when even sophisticated outfits in the west often fly by the seat of their pants?

Still, the point you make remains valid regardless. And I am heartened to see that debate is back in this forum - in the shape of Jeha and Ghassan Karam making a welcome return. Good to see you again boys. Now where is the rest of the usual suspects?

[danny]

Gus,

If my memory has not faded(correct me if I am wrong), Mehlis had expressed those opinions and fears during a televised interview with May Chidiac on LBC a few months back.

As for Lebanese security aparatus or judiciary...????
We know the answer. Also, M14 has been anemic in their responses...mainly because they seem to be controlled by remote control from KSA!

[ghassan karam]

The concrete story that DM had to flee from the country to escape the threats of "terrorist groups" is a very big story. What passes for the Lebanese media has failed to report on such a major event and to do serious investigative reporting. By doing so they have betrayed their mission and the public trust. What is even more sinister,if that is the word, then it is the behaviour of the official Lebanese government. By that I do not mean the security apparatus, but the Cabinet and the MP's. They have aquiesec in allowing hooligans and murderous thugs to dictate who is appointed to what position in Lebanon and they allowed these same gangs to decide who is to be allowed to reside in Lebanon and who is not. Such a group of incompetent cowardly officials does not deserve any public support or sympathy from any one because they are just as bad as the thugs that they have cowed to.

I have been disappointed many a time in all fields but never had I felt so let down and betrayed by those that were expected to protect the country and to deal with the problems that arise in an honest and transparent way. I have often said that Lebanon is badly in need of a major revolution; not a bloody uprising; but this incident shows beyond the pale that Lebanon is not even close to such a transformational point. Hell, we have all expected some of our officials and also a few members of the media to be either agents or clueless, I am not sure which is worse, but to find out that no one in government and not a single sole in the media had either the courage, the conviction or the honesty to perform what they are supposed to do is nothing short of a betrayal of the highest order. My only wish at this moment is to have a few brave souls that will stand for elections next year in opposition to all the traditional pols and power brokers. To hell with wining, a thousand miles journey starts with a step, any takers :-)

[fubar]

“But if Lebanese officials are driven by a morbid sense of pragmatism, mixed with good old subservience and treason by some, there is no reason for some Western powers not to offer them all some backbone. Do Lebanese people not deserve carrots?”

Well, AK, let’s see...

Prior to 2006, the Lebanese received between 35 and 42 million dollars in US aid per year - 3 to 5 million for the LAF per year.
In 2006, Lebanon received 181 million dollars in US aid - 42 million for the LAF.
In 2007, Lebanon received 769.5 million dollars in US aid - 220 million for the LAF.

By the looks of it, the Lebanese people should have turned orange by now from all the carotene they have ingested from US carrots alone. And that doesn’t even take into account all the carrots from other countries. But, then again, serious consideration must be given to the cost of the upkeep of the good ship Liban, especially since she hasn’t proven herself seaworthy for quite some time now.

In 2008, Lebanon received 45 million dollars in US aid.

Its that old conundrum – which comes first, the carrots or the balls. In the case of Lebanon, the carrots came but the balls stayed home. Actions speak louder than words.

Meanwhile, the Hezbollah-selected President trips off to Tehran; talk of a security pact with Iran.

(Naharnet) Premier Fouad Saniora on Saturday discussed with Iran's Ambassador Mohammed Riza Shibani the outcome of President Michel Suleiman's recent visit to Tehran. Shibani told reporters after the talks the discussion covered "the best practical methods …… to implement what has been agreed on by the Iranian and Lebanese presidents."

And Murr announces the Russians are willing to arm the LAF “unconditionally.”

When you lie down with dogs, you wake up with fleas. Just saying...

*******

GK says (re: Mehlis): “I have been disappointed many a time in all fields but never had I felt so let down and betrayed by those that were expected to protect the country and to deal with the problems that arise in an honest and transparent way.”

Nice hyperbole, GK. Seriously, unrealistic high expectations with do that to you every time.

[danny]

Gus,

Just an add one...We had a few brave souls like Tueini and Kassir and Chidiac...The cruel "terrorist" has silenced or tried to silence them...As for the 'leaders" there's no excuse for their utterly disgusting silence and cohabitation deals that they are signing with the HA...Their "visits" to Iran and Syria to be "knighted" by these butcher mofiosis. Unfortunately they have bartered the country away piece by piece for their slice of the pie. It aches my heart even writing about it.
Fubar, even with moderate "entry level" expectations; we are being betrayed and constantly disappointed by their incompetance and tribal mentality! Alas, three years passed with the triumph return of the feudal and tribal stench!

[ghassan karam]

Fubar, you might not like to admit it but at times it is nothing else but high expectations that can change the world, "Yes, we can" :-)

Danny, well said. Thanks for reading my podcasts.

[fubar]

We will see, GK. It's the "nothing else but" that is worrisome. Good to see that you are not wearing rose colored glasses on that point, at least. = )

Danny says: "Fubar, even with moderate "entry level" expectations; we are being betrayed and constantly disappointed by their incompetance and tribal mentality!"

Yes, well, Lebanon prefers the one step forward, two steps back dance. And whenever someone trys to dance in a different pattern, people die. It is hard to be truly surprised or disappointed by the human instinct for self-preservation.

[danny]

Fubar, I do not want to go back and forth...but you said
"It is hard to be truly surprised or disappointed by the human instinct for self-preservation."

Why? Are they not always under threat? Don't they accuse and verbally attack HA or Syria regularly? So what's the course they will lay down? What differentiates them from the Jungle rabbits?

Come on my friend. There has to be a viable alternative presented to the lebanese people to extract them from this quagmire. What's the difference between M8 and M14 otherwise....

Do the people have to choose between worse and worst?

With respect...

[fubar]

Danny,

“Jungle rabbits”? Really? Dehumanization of the enemy in preparation for war? If I may opine, “jungle rabbits,” not only does not immediately convey the image you are looking for, its wordy. Really, think about it, a one word descriptor is best. But, hey, its your war, so its your choice.

“There has to be a viable alternative presented to the lebanese people to extract them from this quagmire. What's the difference between M8 and M14 otherwise....”

As you well know, the difference between M14 and M8 is readily apparent. But there is no viable alternative at the present to extract the Lebanese people from a quagmire 25 years in the making. M14 is hoping for an electoral victory which will give them the majority they need to pursue their agenda, including a viable LAF and eventual disarming of Hezbollah. You may not have noticed, but it is M14, not M8, that is hemorrhaging parliamentarians. So they have been pushed by Hezbollah’s armed conflict into a concession on the President. Okay, but what choice did they have? So they have been pushed into giving Hezbollah veto power in the cabinet. Again, what choice, short of losing in armed conflict? Their only chance now comes at the next parliamentary elections. Even if they win a good majority, will it matter to Hezbollah? No. But it will matter to the international community. And, more importantly, it will matter to the Lebanese.

It is not a choice between worst and worst, it is a choice between the possibility of hope and capitulation. There are required steps in every dance...

[danny]

Fubar,

We agree on a lot...but we agree to disagree on others.
I think people deserve to have high goals and expectations! ...as for the survivalist excuses we have been hearing oh..so may years/decades now; my friend they do not add up to a rationale! As for LAF disarming HA...hahahaha...there you go!
That's another issue worth hours of discussions.My point is simple: Regime change in Iran & Syria! Nothing else can take the statelet away from the HA. What kind of a Carrot would you be offering them that could supplant the nutritional value of the Iranian/Syrian one??

[naja]

A free country it should be, "basha Libnan", but not to the extent of allowing pointless and cheap abuse. If the posts in this blog infuriate you to such an extent, by all means say why; use proper arguments so we can have an enlightened, civil and mind-opening discourse. If you can't, then please go away and air your fury in the places that merchandise emotional sentiment, instead of insulting someone who, after all, is our host here.

[danny]

Re: basha..
naja...x2

[fubar]

AK,

http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/090210_lafsecurity.pdf