Desperate moves

You know the Assad regime is desperate when their own creation had to issue a statement denying televised allegations that they were behind a recent Damascus bombing. Fatah al-Islam today denied claims in “confessions” aired by Syrian TV that they orchestrated the attack with Hariri money. 

The regime, looks like, has re-discovered itself stuck between two countries inching towards relative stability. Lebanon, and Iraq, despite their domestic theatricals and unknown long-term viabilities, are arguably more stable than in recent years. The same cannot be said of Syria, which has had to endure violence and recently, humiliating American and Israeli attacks.

Of course, the Assad regime brought all this upon itself. Fatah al-Islam was a slightly more organized version of its Iraq efforts. Thinking they would be scoring points against the US and March 14, and perhaps relieve pressure caused by the Hariri tribunal, the regime resorted to becoming a conduit for terrorism. Perhaps more foolishly, Assad thought he could become a nuclear power. 

At the end, you reap what you sow. 

Considering that these allegations surfaced on the eve of visits by the Lebanese interior and defense ministers, one has to wonder how many regimes the Syrian regime has produced over the past year. The “confessions”, which could not have been the product of judicial transparency that does not exist, looked like the work of a disgruntled official who couldn’t believe relations with the Lebanese have devolved into pseudo-normalized relations. Embassy? An interior minister who has no allegiance to the lion? A defense minister who rebelled and escaped assassination, and has the audacity to visit? There are a lot of negative things that can be said about the current Lebanese situation and about Syrian-Lebanese relations not being ideal, yet. But you couldn’t help but gloat a little bit when you see functioning Lebanese cabinet ministers arriving in Damascus to represent their country, and not to report to the ruler. 

It increasingly looks like anything positive in Lebanon or Iraq will produce negative repercussions on the Assad regime. Some in Lebanon figured it out. Even the fakest of reconciliations could plunge the Assad regime, which feeds on conflicts, into turmoil. This formula is something to learn and run with, though not to be used as a bible. Spread the love, and let the terminally ill die a natural death. No “engagement” will cure the ailments of one of the sickest regimes on earth. 

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

Welcome back, AK. I was starting to wonder if you'd given up on us.

[Blacksmith Jade]

Good to see you posting again AK!! Keep it up.

[AK]

Thanks BV. Not sure how long I'll stay this time.

[danny]

AK,

Great analysis of the squirming "cat"...Your posts are addictive and insightful...Don't take toooo long in between posts.

Cheers,

[Marillionlb]

Sorry AK, I do not share your enthousiasm with regards to Baroud's visit to Damascus. My vision is far too gloomy I guess, but I would have loved to see all treaties signed between Lebanon and Syria (under occupation) revised (see cancelled), our border clearely demarcated and logged within the UN, our prisonners returned, the Killers of members of the cedar revolution delivered to justice, ...etc before having any dealing with a terrorist state. Moreover I see the west and the US selling us again. Now is not the time to sign new treaties (like Baroud did) with Syria.
N.B: Nice to see you are back !

[AK]

Thanks everyone.

Don't get me wrong Marillionlb. I am not enthusiastic about anything this cabinet does, or anything taking place in Lebanon for that matter.

[Lebanese Patriot]

Good Post AK...
I still fear that the Syrians will be foolish enough to do a military operation in Lebanon. I know that far edged. But they did it before. And on top of that, they still think that they are untouchable.

[Solomon2]

I doubt the regime is in trouble, it's just being its usual shifty self. That's because, IMO, the Syrian regime is a collection of competing, even opposing, secret services where all the strings are controlled at the very top.

Whichever Asad is in power can thus cut a string and let a puppet dangle whenever he likes, and the most the puppet can do about it is squawk. That's what we're seeing here.

Maybe the puppet-masters will wait a week and pick up these strings again for a future performance. Who knows?

[Gebran Sons for Cedar Revolution II]

Perceptive post as usual. Good to see you back AK. This is no time to rest but to redouble efforts bringing new light onto the 2009 decisive elections!

With fast moving events including HizbIran May blunder, Obama election, Syrian disarray, Village Idiot implosion, and the collapse of oil prices taking down with it Iran's economy and political reach... hopefully this time Lebanon learns to take advantage of the fast evolving situation instead of always paying the price for others agendas and ambitions.

[danny]

AK,

I wonder if you (or one of the esteemed people who "guest" here like Ghassan K) can write a post on the global recession and the drop in the price of oil and its ultimate impact on Iran's economy (along with tightening of sanctions) and its mullah's designs...

What if the "clean money" starts drying out? ...its impact on the hizbee "employees". How would it affect the Lebanese landscape?

[ambika]

I have to agree with everyone here about your insightful comments. I do feel that with the new American president on the one hand, and if a moderate leader comes to power in Israel in 2009, then there is hope for a new direction in discussions in the region. This could positively affect Lebanon and her relations with countries in the region, forcing Syria to act. One will have to wait and see what unfolds in the next few months and hope that things dont get worse.

[Bad Vilbel]

Israel already has a "moderate" leader. The fear is that the more right-wing Likud may win big in the upcoming elections.

On another note, a question to my fellow Lebanese who are actually still living in Lebanon:

Do you feel that the March 14 movement, or at least it's ideal still has traction within the general populace?

The reason I ask this question: Whenever I talk to people or relatives in Lebanon, I often get a very different picture than what I THINK I should be seeing. For example, I find that a lot of the stuff we discuss around here, a lot of the information regarding Syria, Iran, Hezb, etc. is completely unknown, or seen through an entirely different narrative by the people (granted, not many) that I discuss with in Lebanon. I keep hearing things like:
- Aoun still has a huge following among the Christians.
- Aoun/Hezb is very likely going to win the '09 elections and both enjoy large popular support.
- People still think of the M14 guys as the old uber-corrupt zaims that are the cause for most of our ailments, and seem to view Hezb/Aoun in a much more favorable/reactionary/populist light.

Are these common sentiments? Are we, here in the diaspora, completely disconnected from the situation on the ground? Or is my friends/relatives sampling simply not very indicative of the view at large?

[danny]

BV,

I just had a friend of mine, who is a maronite by confession, return from Lebanon. He says the opposite. His comments were that LF are in control of the Christian areas around Ashrafieh, Jounieh/Ksrouan as Batroun...These are the areas where he had relatives and friends. His description of the masses and traffic for the LF martyr's Day celebration in jounieh was rather impressive. He asserted that the roads were clogged for miles with buses and cars trying to get to the gathering...while thousands attended! Their whole family has turned against cAloun...to LF...Main reason: total disallusionment with Aoun. SG calm demeanor and performance seems to be scoring him points with the youth!

[Bad Vilbel]

Interesting. I suspect the narrative is very different from region to region. Which is to be expected considering Lebanon's feudal/tribal mentality. But I was nevertheless surprised to hear from folks in Beirut (even after the whole May incident) how much antagonism there is towards Hariri, for example and how many folks seem to believe that it's M14 that's basically the corrupt cancer that needs to go away.
Mind you, I am not talking here about the hardcore supporters (of any side), but rather about average folks who aren't really politically engaged one way or the other. I guess the '09 elections are gonna be, to say the least, interesting.

[Bad Vilbel]

It was also very interesting to me how many people actually believe that Hariri was killed by the Americans/Israelis.
I always knew the Lebanese were super-prone to conspiracy theories. But hearing this kind of stuff from people I know personally, who I consider well educated and fairly open-minded was astounding.

[danny]

BV,

It is in the water and in the air in Lebanon...Conspiracy theories galore...The litmus test seems to be the elections at the colleges and the universities. From what I gather, the orange group seems to be losing ground. The village idiot even accused the adminstation of the NDU of fraud...Do you expect that Aoun will accept defeat in parliamentary elections when he cannot seem to accept a loss on students' levels?

As for Martyr Hariri...He was lableled as a thief by almost everyone in early 2000's...this is coming from Muslims and Christians alike. He had had great contributions but the "deals" that he had made with Syrians were also crytal clear!

[Marillionlb]

BV,
M14 no longer exists and this is the feeling that is prevailing amongst many Lebanese, especially those of Christian faith. We have Hariri talking to Hassounti, Jumblat trying to peddle back, Baroud visiting Syria, Slimi visiting Syria, Aoun visiting Syria, and soon Elias El Murr visiting Syria. Most of the people I know are sure that the next elections will see the return of the Syrian regime with force. Some of them are even accepting the rubbish that was aired on Syrian TV and begining to believe that most of the assassinations were at the hands of Salafists and other Sunni extreemists. Lebanese (especially those living in Lebanon) are brainless. Both Geagea and Aoun still have decent followings amongst the people (comprising mainly of 18 to 25 years old nitwitts).
Those (Lebanese living in Lebanon) who do have a certain IQ and truly believed in the cedar revolution are now disilusioned and depressed for once again thay have been dumped by their representatives (M14). Those same people are now in fear of the future and some are switching sides.
But then again this only my interpretation of what I see around me.

[Solomon2]

"It was also very interesting to me how many people actually believe that Hariri was killed by the Americans/Israelis."

The Soviets, who trained the Syrians, Iraqis, and Egyptians, ran a special service just to spread rumors, its purpose being to obscure the truth. That's probably what we're seeing here.

Hey, no Lebanese is going to be murdered because they blame Israel or America for their ills, right? But if you blamed Syria or Hezb, I imagine that you'd better know the people you're speaking with very well.

Yet if you didn't blame anybody for Lebanon's ills, people would either think that you are responsible or too cowardly to put the finger on anybody, yes? So blaming Israel/America is an alternative to admitting guilt or cowardice.

As for M14: in a real sense it stopped existing as soon as Lebanese dropped the burden themselves and gave it to their sectarian leaders to handle. No mass demos, no people power, totalitarians can thus concentrate on compromising/eliminating the leaders through assassinations or threats.

[Gebran Sons for Cedar Revolution II]

Solomon, Marillion, Danny and BV you all make good points but I believe the focus on individuals misses the point. We all agree the 2009 election is most critical in deciding Lebanon’s fate: a broken nation in need of Syrian tutelage or a shining democracy exporting the ingredient of freedom, justice and tolerance needed to save the region from its demons.

Looking back, the success of the Cedar Revolution was because it represented the silent majority aspirations and was based on the principles of sovereignty, independence and justice instead of blindly supporting leaders. Our success in the 2009 election is only possible if we substitute leaders with eternal principles. If it ends up being between Aoun and Gaaga or Hariri and Hizbollah, Lebanon has already lost the election.

For the silent majority to rise again we need leaders like Obama. Obama’s appeal was not based on political alliances but his inner confidence, deep convictions, genuine faith, inclusive spirit, and sense of justice that connected him with people of all backgrounds. He translated people’s fears and anxieties into hope and optimism. Lebanese Obamas will be leaders with the courage of Gebran Tueni, constructive spirit of Rafiq Hariri, intellect of Samir Kassir and dedication of Bassil Fleyhan. Leaders with a message of hope, peace, inclusiveness and progress that all communities can identify with and intuitively support.

As Obama was confident in the strength and resilience of US democracy, we should be confident of the uniqueness of the Lebanese system to produce modern democratic leaders that derive strengths from inner convictions instead of political alliances. There are many Obamas in Lebanon and their day has come to punch through the old political gridlock to build a brighter and better future. Gebran Sons are confident of this fact and the capacity of the silent majority to rise up to the challenges because deep inside, the majority of Lebanese desire the objectives of the Cedar Revolution but distrust present leaders. That’s why the 2009 election is crucial. That’s why we are all needed to rise our voice for democracy and justice, expose the misinformation campaigns that started by Syria’s puppets, and be absolutely confident in the capacity of Lebanese and our free system to generate another Cedar Revolution II, this time supported but not hijacked by traditional feudal or civil-war leaders. We will use every tool available to a smart, sophisticated and capable generation. Anew coming together of people of every background sharing the same vision for Lebanon, developing innovative and detailed programs based on sound social and economic analysis, and using every tool to spread the word including “Facebook” distributive coordination. We can do it, yes we absolutely can!

[Marillionlb]

@Gebran, many people will not vote out of disgust towards M14 who let Lebanon down. Vote for whom since no one seems to be representing the aspirations of TRUE Lebanese? The Cedar Revolution wass pissed ans spat upon by those who claim to have started it, this Revolution was sacrificed for personel gains and power.

[The Other Tony]

Gebran Sons,

If only the Lebanese are ready for what you propose. In theory, a figure like Demanios Khattar or Chibli Mallat fits into the mould of "new leader" with intellect and makings to lead Lebanon out of its mess. In reality however, would either one of these two be elected unless they are on the electoral ticket of a prominent political party/leader? My humble opinion is no.

What I have seen over the last few years in particular does not lead me to too much optimism. The best that can be hoped for, is for the party with ideals of freedom, liberty and democracy win power to govern and it be a start toward building the society that Gebran Tueni, Samir Kassir, Bassil Fleyhan, Rafik Hariri and others died for..............

[danny]

I had heard lately that March 14 will run the next elections based on a unified set of principals and programs. I will wait till they "issue" their declaration to see if it's just empty rhetoric or addresses the little guys concerns?
As for Obama, he did not run as an independent! We have to work from within the rotted to the core Lebanese System. All things are NOT equal in Lebanon. One side has the gun ready and pointed to the others' head. Unfortunately, those who tried to dare and speak out OUR language were brutally assasinated. Kassir, Tueini, Gemayel(to some extent)...They reflected different ideologies from left to right however, they had captured our imagination with their intellect. May they RIP...

[Marillionlb]

@Dany March who? There is no March 14, each and every one of them went his own seperate way and some are trying to get back into Syria's good book. Those M14's have realized that they have lost the battle and are now running for their lives leaving us behind just like that demented general did with his troops.
Wake up people we were shafted once again.

[Solomon2]

"We all agree the 2009 election is most critical in deciding Lebanon’s fate"

Really? Don't you think Hezb, Assad, and the Iranians know a thing or two about manipulating elections? What have Lebanese done to ensure that the process stays clean throughout the country?

[Bad Vilbel]

Hahaha! Good one! A Lebanese Obama....Don't make me laugh. Principles over individual leaders? Right!

We're at LEAST 200 years away from that, in Lebanon. No point talking about stuff that 99% of the population doesn't even BEGIN to comprehend.

[danny]

Marillionlb

I understand your frustration. What's the alternative? I have been sensing this feeling of despair for a while. Have common Lebanese folk; the 'independents" congregated or formed an alternative group at all in the past two years? one year? six months? ...or are they waiting for divine intervention (not the HA kind). I think we should back the devil we know and work towards a better Lebanon after the May 2009 elections. The alternative is that if we lose to the "evil axis" kiss everything goodbye or get ready to kiss their asses!
As for everyone going to Syria...who? Aoun was an idiot for 14 years! I do not know what Lebanese people saw in him. After all he turned his guns against his Christian consituents...I never; and I stress NEVER liked a word he spoke. He seemed as crazy then as he sounds now...Most had decided not to notice it!

P.S. I am not nor have ever politically affiliated with Lebanese 'political parties"...

[Simon]

It is incredible that anyone actually believes that anyone other than the Saudis and Hariri are funding Fatah al-Islam. Yet another radical Sunni militant group that will eventually bite them and their allies in the butt.

[Marillionlb]

Dany,
No I would not vote for the lesser of the two evils, I would vote for "None of the above"; and if sufficient votes are casted in this manner, it might shake our political class a bit. I worked on an alternative for a while until, I hit the bureaucracy obstacle and the million of dollars needed to set it up. Like you I do not adhere to any political party, nor would I ever.
I am hopeful that one day we might see the rise of a new Tayyar/Party that will be represetentative of many Lebanese who, just like me are sick and tired of the crappy political class we now have.

[Bad Vilbel]

Simon,

It is incredible that you would think it so incredible, considering all the evidence actually pointing towards Syria being behind Fath Al Islam.
But I don't expect you really care much about evidence.

[danny]

Simon,

Syria is fully aware of the mounting evidence from Fatah Al Islam's captured prisoners' in Lebanon. It is totally irrefutable...as such that these evidence is being passed on to the International Tribunal investigative body. I guess as BV said you do not much care about evidence.
Sometimes I wonder how can intelligent common sense people, who can debate with logic about anything in the West...can become so blind and addle headed when Lebanese politics is involved.

Marillionlb,

We agree to disagree. You are wasting your vote to plunge Lebanon into deeper scata to prove a point?
...I have a feeling you guys will be attacking the "March 14" grouping even if and after they lose...It seems you have the Stockholm Syndrome (or similar). You see the HA/Aoun/Iran/Syria as a better alternative? I guess you have your reasons. Wish you guys well in Lebanon...Fortunately I do not have to make that choice that might "torture" my conscience indefinitely.

[Marillionlb]

Dany,
You missed my point, Idealy I would like to see people revolt against the idea of the lesser of two evil and DEMAND a third alternative. As for your Psychological profiling, sorry to say you are way off, on the contrarry I was and always will be a strong opponent to March 8 and all which they represent; the only difference is that I am no longer blinded by M14 false promises. I have done my bit for the cedar revolution (even at the risk of my own life)and i am know saddened to see it pissed down the drain by those who spoke in its name. That is all that I am saying. I pray for a miracle to take place before election day, represented by the rise of a true Lebanese, but I haven't believed in Santa for over 40 years now and I am not about to start.