From Beirut to the Beltway

When in Beirut...

One day you’re outside the country blogging about it, and another you’re on the very soil that torments you, unable to write much. After a horrible trip courtesy of British Airways and BMI, we made it here, sans luggage, exhausted, hungry and sick from humiliation at the hands of Heathrow operators. 

Please be patient as we recharge, and prepare for the trip back. The few excursions we made generated mixed emotions. On the one hand, there’s the majesty of geography, sprawling mountains and glorious natural and historical wonders. But on the other, there’s the recklessness of the inhabitants, and the feeling of shame you get when you see it all going to waste. Downtown Beirut looked tired, though the construction efforts continue unabated. In some of the areas that witnessed clashes, giant posters of rival clan leaders mark territories invaded. The faces of Hassan Nasrallah and Nabih Berri are everywhere Amal and Hizbullah planted a flag during the May assault. Their posters are offensive, and so are their politics, which if you care to follow, makes you want to never set foot in the city again.

It’s hard to see Hizbullah’s stronghold over the country when sitting in a downtown café or restaurant. It’s easier to see it on the faces of broken people, especially Beirut residents not affiliated with the Shia militias. How do you go to what used to be your favorite gadget store when it sits in the shadow of a huge Nasrallah banner?  How do you carry on co-existing with your Shia neighbors when suspicions are eating you alive? In some of the mixed neighborhoods, there are daily reports of “Hizbullah spies” getting “caught”, and vice versa. All parties now possess lists detailing the political affiliations of inhabitants. Some Shia store owners had to close shop. And some Sunnis are afraid to return to their homes in predominantly Shia neighborhoods.

And the country still has no government, courtesy of Aoun and his backer Hizbullah, which is benefiting from his insistence to have one of the main “sovereignty” ministries—defense or interior. To Aoun, it’s to make up for losing the presidency (as if it was his to own). To Hizbullah, it’s a way to make sure security officials will turn a blind eye to their activities.

And speaking of Hizbullah activities, nothing has changed as far as they are concerned. The Doha agreement may have killed their resistance status, but this doesn’t seem to matter to them. They seem happy with their new status as a terrorist militia, acting directly or through partners, instigating fights and kidnapping people whenever they sense political defeat or smell “treason”. And they continue to create a contiguous Shia territory. Correction: a contiguous Hizbullah territory. Some in my family, who are unaffiliated with Hizbullah, have been offered large sums of money to sell their properties in southern villages. So far, nobody is selling. But one fears the day they start terrorizing them out of their own homes.

In short, it’s bad. It’s always been an existential battle for Hizbullah, and as long as they’re around in this current form, the country has no chance of ever recovering. In the meantime, sedatives, in the form of beach going and barhopping seem to do the trick for a population tired of itself.

In the name of the union

According to the French prime minister, Syria has "fulfilled its commitments to Lebanon", so its president deserves to share the podium with the French President to celebrate freedom on July 14th. 

Because nothing inspires freedom and independence like the Assad regime.

And unbeknownst to the stupid Lebanese who mistook Sarkozy for a committed and sane ally, Bashar had "commitments" towards their country that he chose not to temporarily fulfill, allowing death and mayhem to descend on it from the heavens.

French Prime Minister Francios Fillon said Thursday that Damascus had fulfilled its commitments on the issue of the political crisis in Lebanon, and for this reason Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been invited to attend France's national day military parade on the Champs Elysees after a Paris summit next month.

"Syria has fulfilled its obligations regarding the conflict in Lebanon," Fillon said in response to the criticism launched against the invitation by leftist officials. He was referring to the international community's demand that Syria, which supports Hizbullah's influence in Lebanon, would not thwart the election of Michel Suleiman as the country's president after many months of political turmoil in which Lebanon remained without a leader.

According to Fillon, Syria's presence at the event is important to its theme, which is the promotion of peace in the region. "It is imperative that all of the Middle Eastern countries sit at the table together," he said. Paris has moved to re-launch contacts with Damascus since the election of Suleiman last month. Visiting Beirut last week, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said a "new page may be opening in relations between France and Syria."

Assad is among 50 heads of state and government invited to the July 13 summit on the launch of a new Mediterranean Union, championed by Sarkozy as France takes over the European Union presidency. Experts say Sarkozy is hoping Assad's presence will boost the launch of the Mediterranean Union project, which has received a lukewarm welcome from some European and Arab states. (AFP)

Reporters Without Borders isn't impressed with the invitation.

“Nicolas Sarkozy is breaking one commitment after another,” the press freedom organisation said. “After welcoming Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi with open arms in Paris on 10 December, Human Rights Day, and singing the praises of the Tunisian regime in April, he is now going to celebrate 14 July, which is supposed to be in honour of independence and freedom, next to the president of one of the world’s most repressive regimes.

“How far is Sarkozy ready to go to promote his Mediterranean Union project? What new concessions will he make to the Libyan leader to get him to support this project? When he was running for president, Sarkozy put human rights at the heart of his programme. He said that, with him as president, talks would be much firmer especially, as regards Russia and China. Today we are far, very far, from these commitments. President Sarkozy, like others before him, is pursing a realpolitik at the expense of the values France is supposed to embody.”

The lost empire

Sarkozy thinks he can change the world, reform Assad by rewarding him for terrorizing Lebanon, and make the Mediterranean a happy place for the consumption of the Original Croissant.

Sarkozy’s brainchild, the Mediterranean Union, is a prime example of how Sarkozy is leading himself down a path of humiliation. Countries like Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt warmed up, but others asked for "clarifications". What do you mean by “union”, Sarko? Does the region really need another union? What about the European Union, the African Union, the Arab League, the Arab Maghreb Union, the United Nations, and yeah, the umma? Who will foot the bill, who will set policy, and who will preside over it? Who will teach all those people good French?

Can Sarkozy really bring together the Moroccans and the Algerians? The Arabs and the Israelis? Will that union re-open the Algerian-Moroccan border, resolve the Western Sahara dispute, return Palestine to this planet, and… deprive Kadhafi of his dream to rule the continent?

The Colonel today gathered a few willing Arab dictators in Tripoli, including Bashar and excluding Mubarak who didn’t want to be seen in the same room with the Syrian dictator. 

"This is taking us for fools," Gaddafi said. "We do not belong to Brussels. Our Arab League is located in Cairo and the African Union is located in Addis Ababa. If they want cooperation they have to go through Cairo and Addis Ababa."

Kadhafi described the Mediterranean Union project as an “aberration”, noting that past partnerships between Europe and the Mediterranean never materialized... including the Barcelona Process. “We are no that hungry”, said Kadhafi, “they’re the ones who need our oil, gas and natural resources”.

You really must read the Arabic.

Kadhafi may be crazy, but what’s Sarkozy’s excuse for defying reality? Too bad all the dealings with Libyans didn’t pay off in support for his little project. And when you remember that the wannabe-emperor hopes Bashar will deliver peace and love, you shudder at the amount of delusion one man can harbor in his pursuit for greatness lost.

Suleiman to postpone discussion of Hizbullah’s weapons

With the emasculated security forces desperately trying to control the situation on the ground, and politicians trying to overcome the Aoun obstacle to form a cabinet, the newly “elected” president Michel Suleiman made a promise to Hizbullah that has received little attention in the media.

I first read about this in An-Nahar, which quoted Suleiman as saying to visiting French President Nicolas Sarkozy that the "defense strategy" will be discussed after the liberation of the Shebaa farms. What this means is simple to understand: Hizbullah’s weapons are off the table until further notice.

ووفق مصادر المجتمعين، فإن الرئيس سليمان اكد خلال المحادثات للرئيس ساركوزي ضرورة تعزيز العلاقات اللبنانية- الفرنسية وتطويرها في كل المجالات، شاكراً لفرنسا مساهمتها في القوات الدولية العاملة في الجنوب، ومواقفها الداعمة للحق اللبناني. كذلك شكر لفرنسا المساعدات التي تقدمها في المجالات التربوية والانسانية والعسكرية.
وركز سليمان على ضرورة التوصل إلى حل عادل وشامل ودائم لازمة الشرق الاوسط، من خلال حل القضية الفلسطينية وفق القرارات الدولية، وصولاً إلى ايجاد حل لاوضاع الفلسطينيين في لبنان يقوم على حق العودة.
وشدد على حق لبنان في استعادة مزارع شبعا وتلال كفرشوبا، لا سيما وان هناك وثائق رسمية تؤكد ملكية لبنان لهذه المزارع، مشيراً في هذا الاطار، إلى رعاية الامم المتحدة لمثل هكذا حل.
واكد انه سيرأس لقاءات الحوار الوطني للبحث في المواضيع المطروحة وفق ما التزمه به في خطاب القسم، وان مسألة الاستراتيجية الدفاعية ستبحث ايضاً بعد تحرير مزارع شبعا وتلال كفرشوبا (An-Nahar)

In Monday’s edition of al-Mustaqbal, Fares Khashan mentioned the “promise” in passing: Michel Suleiman has promised Hizbullah that the “defense strategy will be implemented after the liberation of Shebaa”.

المعلومات تؤكد ان الصورة النهائية تتبلور في مهلة أقصاها، يوم الثلاثاء المقبل، فإذا كان "حزب الله" يتكئ على العماد عون للخربطة فيما هو يبدي إيجابية حتى من خلال الإيحاء بأنه لن يتسبب بمشكلة بسبب وزارة الإتصالات، فإن الحقيقة ستظهر في وقت قريب جدا، أما إذا كان "حزب الله" لا يُناور، وهو الذي أخذ وعداً من الرئيس سليمان بأن الإستراتيجية الدفاعية يتم البحث في تطبيقها بعد تحرير مزارع شبعا، فإن على عون إما أن "يحط"، وفي هذه الحالة يمكن للحكومة ان تظهر ليل غد، وإما أن "ينط"، وفي هذه الحالة يتم إرجاء تشكيل الحكومة الى يوم السبت المقبل، لأن قوى الثامن من آذار ستأخذ مهلة لتختار، بالإتفاق الضمني مع عون، الشخصيات المسيحية التي سيتم توزيرها لتكون من حصة "المعارضة" بعد رفض "التيار الوطني الحر" الدخول الى الحكومة. (Al-Mustaqbal)

 With Hizbullah reportedly on board after that promise, Suleiman expressed optimism today, and reports suggest the new lineup will be announced mid week.

Suleiman’s promise, if true, is a huge setback. With their weapons off the table, Hizbullah will have more opportunities to focus on what is important to them: going after UNSC 1701. March 14 must insist that this issue take priority over all other issues. They must not content themselves with temporary and ineffective security arrangements, such as the ones taking place in the city. Not discussing Hizbullah's weapons implies a continuation of the reign of terror that began in May. Reports of investigations of some Beirut residents by Hizbullah abound. This was common practice in the suburb, and it seems to have spread to the city. With Hizbullah's weapons untouchable, March 14 will lose the points it scored against the militia when it used its weapons domestically.

No cabinet is worth being formed, and no elections are worth being held with Hizbullah receiving that kind of immunity through impunity.

Death squad, Aoun delay cabinet formation

The Future Movement has reportedly withdrawn from consultations on the new cabinet pending action against a rumored death squad that is targeting its supporters in Beirut.

The death squad apparently includes member of Berri's "parliamentary police". Yesterday, four gunmen from that squad opened fire on FM supporter Imad Zaghloul in the Jneh neighborhood. 

Zaghloul's father, Mohammed, said in a television interview that members of Parliament police opened fire at his son. He identified by name two officers of the Parliament police allegedly involved in the attempt on his son's life.

Mohammed Zaghloul also claimed that he has been receiving death threats from Parliament police officers.

Security sources said four gunmen shot and wounded Zaghloul near the Kuwaiti embassy in Beirut's Bir Hassan district late Tuesday.

The sources said two men in civilian clothes and another two wearing Parliament police uniforms and driving a black X5 BMW approached Zaghloul and opened fire on him, wounding him in several parts of his body.

Police found that the car plates belonged to Lama N.J., wife of Mohammed B., residents of the Shiyah neighborhood. (Naharnet)

Now Lebanon quoted "Well-informed sources" as saying that the incident was part of a campaign to liquidate anti-Hizbullah citizens.

“There seems to be a death squad targeting people based on a list of names. It is a continuation of the military operations carried out by Hezbollah in Beirut and the Mountain, and is aimed at ‘besieging’ regions where MP Saad Hariri has influence, in the hope of deterring residents there until the legislative elections are held,” the source said. (Now Lebanon)

PM-designate Fouad Siniora called for "necessary measures":

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has called on the Interior Minister and the Defense Minister to take the necessary measures to bring to justice the perpetrators of aggressive acts against citizens, in violation of civil peace. He also called for setting up a procedure for liaising with people who are threatened and [assaulted], amid reports of a number of citizens being followed or finding themselves under surveillance by some partisans. (Now Lebanon)

Hariri is reportedly asking for an Arab fact finding mission to investigate the security breaches and make sure the security component of the Doha agreement is implemented before proceeding with the consultations.

In other obstacles to the cabinet formation, Aoun is not budging on his demand to have five ministries to himself-- more than the president's share.

Meanwhile, Al-Seyassah reported that the news of an upcoming visit by Bashar Assad to Lebanon is mere wishful thinking, especially in what concerns establishing diplomatic relations. The Kuwaiti paper said Assad will not visit the country before Suleiman visits Syria (something that is expected to happen after swearing in the new cabinet, according to Syrian rag a-Watan). The paper adds that Bashar fears the visit could lead to street protests by March 14 supporters.

That's if the death squad doesn't get to them first.

Something bewildering this way comes

Will Lebanon get a "national unity" cabinet before Sarkozy's visit this Saturday? And will this cabinet be fully functional when Bashar Assad visits the country in mid June, announcing the establishment of diplomatic relations between Lebanon and Syria? 

Let's start with Samir Geagea, who is excessively giddy these days.

Geagea: For the first time, the effect of the Cedar Revolution will be visible in the coming government.
Geagea: We have a free presidential palace, and I hope that the government will reflect true balance.
Geagea: There has been enough seeking credit for the accomplishment of achievements. Only the Cedar Revolution can take credit for these achievements.
Geagea: Only democracy will restore the rights of Christians, Muslims and everyone.
Geagea: I will not uncover any detail about the government as long as consultations with PM Fouad Siniora are still going on.
Geagea: The Lebanese Forces will be represented according to its true dimension.
Geagea: The issue of my participation in the government and the ministerial portfolio that I might handle is being discussed.
Geagea: Had it been true that Aoun did accomplish all he claimed to have achieved, then why were the electoral constituencies not divided according to his demand?
Geagea: We have agreed  with our allies over the division of Beirut’s electoral constituencies. 
Geagea: We are making efforts to reform the electoral law. We are focusing on Lebanese emigrants right to vote. (Now Lebanon)

Well, I'll be giddy too if the new electoral law allows us immigrants to vote.

Meanwhile, Michel Aoun's appetite has grown (or shrunk, if you take into account that he lost the presidency). He reportedly wants at least five ministries, including those claimed by his comrades in the "opposition". And the Jumblatt-Berri-Hariri backchannels are trying to reach agreement over the makeup of the cabinet that will seemingly see the establishment of a Lebanese embassy in Syria.

The alleged Syrian overture is taking some by surprise. According to As-Safir, Assad will announce the establishment of diplomatic relations from Baabda when he visits in mid June. He will also reportedly call for a review of bilateral agreements that gave Syria too much and Lebanon not enough to claim sovereignty.

Something bewildering this way comes.  If positive, as Geagea sees it, so be it. Danger still lurks, and the same old fault lines got rocked when Berri's stooge Qabalan suggested a Shia vice president. The call went with the wind, thankfully. But at least he drew the line when it came to Wilayat al-Faqih, saying it cannot be applied in Lebanon.

Fatah al-Islam tried to rock the boat, unsuccessfully this time.

But the ship has sailed. Justice is postponed and stability is queen for a year. Or six months. Who knows...

I wonder what Samir Kassir would think.