Young on Lebanon after the Doha agreement

Many have jumped to the conclusion that the Doha agreement is a victory for Hizbullah and defeat for March 14. I couldn't disagree more with such a simplistic view. Here's Michael Young on the subject:

Can Hizbullah be pleased with the result? It will now be able to say that it received veto power in the government and that the matter of its weapons was not discussed in Doha. It will also be able to convince its supporters that this was its latest victory after the government's decision to withdraw the two decisions last week that Hizbullah found offensive. But that may be only half the story. By so foolishly taking over Beirut militarily, the party only scared the other communities into sustained hostility. The two decisions the government went back on were decisions it could never have implemented anyway, so Hizbullah effectively revealed its coup plan at an inopportune time and for little gain. The party also has lost two cards: It has dismantled its downtown protest camp and won't be able to close the airport road for some time. Its weapons have become a subject of legitimate national discussion. And what kind of war can Hizbullah hope to wage against Israel in South Lebanon when most Lebanese, and quite a few Shiites, have no desire for war? Most importantly, Hizbullah has been about the negation of the state. If the post-Doha process is about the building of a state, then the party and that state will eventually clash.

Young places the Doha agreement in the context of a regional package deal, and interprets it as failure by the Assad regime to take over the country without a military assault-- one which has failed, and created more obstacles for its allies, and for Hizbullah especially.

Like most compromises, the Doha agreement has created winners and losers on all sides - but remains nebulous enough so that the losers still feel they might gain from it. But it's difficult not to interpret what happened in Qatar as a definitive sign that Syria's return to Lebanon is no longer possible. No doubt the Syrians were in on the arrangement, and the suspicious delay in establishing the Hariri tribunal until early 2009 makes one wonder whether a quid pro quo is taking shape behind the scenes. Reports of a breakthrough on the Syrian-Israeli track, the Iraqi Army's entry into Sadr City, certainly with an Iranian green light, and signs that a truce may soon be agreed in Gaza, suggest a regional package deal may have oiled the Lebanese deal.

If there was one message emerging from the recent fighting, it was that Syria could not conceivably return its army to Lebanon without reconquering the country. Hizbullah committed several mistakes, of which two were especially egregious for Syria: The Sunni community, like the Druze and many Christians, are mobilized and will fight any Syrian comeback; and the Lebanese file is more than ever an Iranian one, because Hizbullah's destiny is at stake. Syria's allies, other than Hizbullah, were ineffective in Beirut and the mountains, in some cases even siding with the majority. This confirmed that Damascus has less leverage than ever when it comes to employing those smaller armed groups it completely controls.

Young sees the election of a president, something that Hizbullah wanted to avoid altogether, as opening a new phase in Lebanon.

The election of a president, even if he is the troubling Michel Suleiman, opens a new phase in Lebanon, one in which it is possible to imagine consolidating a state gradually breaking free from Syria's grip. That's the priority today, and has been the priority since April 2005 when the Syrian Army withdrew from the country. Whether Suleiman likes it or not, from now on he is a president, not a candidate maneuvering to become a president, which will require him to take a strong position on defending the sovereignty of the state both vis-ˆ-vis Syria and Hizbullah. That could either push him closer to the position favored by March 14 and most Lebanese, or it could damage him if he proves to be indecisive.

Read the entire thing here.

Comments

[VOR]

The Doha accord is nothing more than just a temporary truce to avoid an all out conflict that neither side wants. HA "won" by getting its veto that it coveted and by getting a "compromise" president that will be somewhat tuned to their demands. All of this will come to a head when the next round of elections will occur next year and that is what the majority is banking on. HA's weapons are safe for now, but in the grand scheme of things where regional battle lines are ever changing, things could unravel for one side or the other very quickly as Lebanon's tormented history has proven over and over again.

[naja]

I share that view AK. And it is pretty much in line with my comment today on your earlier post. There are indeed grounds for optimism and it certainly ain't a matter of clutching at straws.

On a separate note, an interesting point-of-view from a (pretty neutral) friend of mine here in Beirut. I'll frame it in the context of what had been said about downtown Beirut in the past, namely that it was rather characterless (normal, as all buildings were restored at the same time rather than have their own ageing signs) and that it was the off limits to most Lebanese. My friend (an optimist like yours truly) saw that now downtown Beirut has a true, actual history, an extra living dimension. And that for those who had felt disenfranchised, walking in it would no longer be an alien experience.

I guess the glass is half-full.

[Jeha]

Good points, but, to paraphrase an old joke;

I read M. Young,
You read M. Young,
Does Nasrallah read M. Young?

[pragmatism works]

I think people in Lebanon are experiencing the after shock ...after a real threat of civil war, the leaders came up with a compromise. For sure it is relatively a good thing to err on the side of peace when Chaos is the other option...But the Hizb army is still there so i am suspicious about their intentions...and i am ot sure that by talking to someone you can strip their power...It is just not logic...Unless Iran quit suporting the HIZB i don't see what hope for Lebanon...
In the end, we live in peace and should wish our fellow lebanese peace...but it still hard to swallow that compromise.

[Blacksmith Jade]

lol Jeha :)

[danny]

Young has a good analysis. However what we have accomplished is:

 Buy HA at least another year to firm up its mini state and armory
 Defer the civil conflict (war or peaceful)
 “save the summer season”
 Buy time for Iran to ‘negotiate” its file and not be totally immersed in Lebanon alone

Other than the above, I do not see anything else. My suggestion will be to move ahead with the elections ASAP and let the country move on…As discussed before we are certain that HA will get its way from its mini state populace…

I think the March 14 lost their biggest opportunity to effect change. The Cedar revolution has been put to rest. RIP.

Lebanese as usual are content with crumbs thrown their way. I remember Hassoon saying a few times that they can wait out the rest! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!

Although Young’s piece is a reason for hope; I think it is more of a spin for Losers!!!

[ghassan karam]

I never cease to be amazed at the Lebanese capacity to avoid looking reality in the face and taking principled positions. What many, including Mr. Young, are calling compromise is mothing short of appeasement.
It is always possible to look at the world through colored glasses but we ought to be reminded that when we do that the image that is reflected is purely artificial. Is it possible to spin Doha as an achievement? Of course it is , given a creative imagination, the ability to keep lowering the bar and the sense that an outcome is inevitable because "had we not accepted this then something worse would have happened" But don't you see the flaw in the above? It is a formula for "anything goes".
The argument that the alternative to Doha would have been civil war is a crock that is brought out to justify ineptness. Isn't it as valid to suggest that HA and allies would not have been able to digest Lebanon had they swallowed it by force? Could the ruling government then ask for Arab intervention? And then there is that obsession with the International Tribunal again? What are the miracles that it is expected to deliver?
But the greatest failure of Doha is its inability to learn from history. HA and its allies were able to disrupt the functioning of the cabinet even when they did not have a veto power. So tell me again why is it that this time around it is going to be better? The current leadership of March 14 has demonstrated over and over again that they have risen to their level of incompetence; they are not up to the job.
History is favouring those that still believe in the Lebanese project as a state that is modern, democratic, prosperous and secular. In that regard Doha was a move in the right direction since it will help solidify the case that what ails Lebanon is not only HA and its allies but also its traditional feudal, inept politicians. Yes Doha like most events in history moves us closer to the day when responsible Lebanese citizenship will emerge but that Doha detour was not called for.

[pragmatism works]

the International Tribunal is supposed to bring Assad to justice or al mashnaka like saddam.Isnt it? we are still waiting though...

[Simon]

You always can tell when the Iranians, Syrians, Hezbollah and Hamas win, the U.S. backed media types like Michael Young use the irrational statements to try spin the story the opposite way.

[Charlie]

There is a lot of wishful thinking in Young’s article. We shall see how things settle down shortly. However, in the presence of an armed HA, I don’t have great deal of hope the state institutions will evolve to anything meaningful where citizens can count on to protect their rights.

[Vox P.]

This is not Young's best piece.

The Doha conference has amended national pact: a speaker for the Shias, a PM for the Sunnis, and a consensus president for the 'Lebanese'.

[Bad Vilbel]

I'm going to cautiously disagree with Mr. Young on this one and agree with my good friend Ghassan Karam. I too am always amazed at this capacity the Lebanese have for avoiding reality in favor of some wishful thinking.

I say "cautiously" because it is too early to tell how this is going to play out. It may come to pass that Michael Young's optimism and analysis will prove the correct outlook on the issue.

But even in a well constructed argument like Mr. Young's I see a reliance on some wishful thinking as hypothesis for the argument being made. There are a lot of "IF" assumption if you want to put a positive spin on this stuff.

- IF the Doha accords is ACTUALLY implemented: History shows us most Lebanese accords aren't. Taef was supposed to do away with sectarianism, for example.
- IF HA allows their weapons to be discussed: I noticed a comment today from Hariri assuring us that weapons will be discussed PRIOR to the ministerial statement. I'll believe it when I see it. Based on past history, I'm going to guess the ministerial statement will include some formal recognition of HA's weapons as "Resistance", much like Saniora's ministerial statement did. That's no "discussion".
- IF Suleiman actually works to strengthen the state: I quote Michael Young here, who seems like he's trying to convince himself when he says "The election of a president, even if he is the troubling Michel Suleiman, opens a new phase in Lebanon, one in which it is possible to imagine consolidating a state gradually breaking free from Syria's grip."
("possible to imagine" ??? Such convincing choice of words, huh?)

And lastly, I will point to the following quotes:

"Hizbullah has been about the negation of the state. If the post-Doha process is about the building of a state, then the party and that state will eventually clash."

This is exactly what Ghassan and myself are saying. The band-aid does nothing to solve the real issue. And if (big IF) the Doha agreement does in fact lead to a stronger state, then it puts us on a collision course with HA yet again (and I postulate that no one can disarm HA, not even the state, unless the Shia community is on board).

I have no doubt that there are some bigger regional contexts to take into account here. A point that Michael Young makes well. But as far as Lebanon itself is concerned, I stand by my pessimism.
I suppose "pessimism" is relative to one's expectations. If you're expectations are "we avoid civil war for now". Then sure, Doha is a success. If the expectation was "just get us back to 2005-2007 status quo", then again, Doha was a success.

But I was expecting us to move forward, towards the vision we all have of a prosperous and democratic Lebanon. I don't see that happening here at all. I see us making the same mistakes we made in 2005: At the time it was the Maronites, lead by Batrak Sfeir who stifled the move on Baabda with a short-term fix that ended up hurting more down the line when Lahoud's term ran out. This is EXACTLY the same thing. Short term fix. And it WILL bite us back. Mark my words.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan, can you do me a favor and email me? (my blog will have my email addie, (thebadvilbel.blogspot.com). thx!

[ghassan karam]

BV
I could not get your email to open. Heres one of mine: wp.karam@gmail.com

[Linda]

On queue with AK's posts, the Washington Post headline this morning reads: "Lebanon Accord Offers a Respite - Essential issues still unresolved", and the adjacent header is none other than "Israel-Syria Talks". Another big title not to be dismissed:"Petraeus: Diplomacy, Not Force, With Iran". It seems to me like the big "mot de passe" of the end of the Bush days is appeasement. March 14 and the other baffoons are just dancing to a choregraphie set by "the others". What happened in the latest 24 hours that led to this lovely agreement will be paraphrased, overanalysed, and second guessed but since we are Lebanese at heart the focus now is on the 'sayfiyye' and lovely parties and sunsets. Yes God bless the White and Skybar and Aishti because without them we would be a Bengal or Burma equivalent...
I hope I am wrong, but for the history buffs out there: read about Havanna before Castro's take over in the mid 50's. A non aligned country with an open sea side society... we all know how this one ended. For now, I have my ticket ready and I am ready to steel another wonderful Lebanese summer...

[Libnani]

Oh how I wish that we would stop thinking of Lebanon as a Country Club for the Super Wealthy. No wonder so far we have failed to cultivate citizenship. And yes Havanna prior to the revolution was the biggest brothel in the West.

[Linda]

Libnani: did not mean it this way, but as a sad member of the Lebanese diaspora we live the "Western" rat race all year long and I don't know about others but I need my Lebanese summer break to be uneventful. The country has nothing to offer except "khadamat wa siyaha" as learned in our geography books in elementary school. And this one type of resource turns the country in a let's call it "Havanna bed" for neighbors and well wishers. But I digress, we need Lebanon to be a country club for the wealthy for unless we find oil on our shores what are the resources we can count on??? so maybe i did mean it this way after all. sorry izza za3alnek.

[Jeha]

"what are the resources we can count on", O yee of little faith; have a look in the mirror. This is all we need.

Just take the clerics and politicos out of the way, and see what we can do.

[Sami]

I think that M14 finally did the right thing, and perhaps they should have done so right after the international tribunal was set up through the Security Council. Giving a veto power to Hizbolla (mind you it is only a veto power as long as the Aounists vote with him and only on limited issues only and they have no right to resign) is like retracting the two government decisions regarding the communication network and the airport secruity, since they are both irrelevant to Hizbolla. The truth of the matter is that Hizbolla did not want a solution and wanted to postpone it as long as possible. It wanted to tell its people that it is the only legitimat authority in the country. M14 now has foiled Hizbolla and they should have done so long time ago. The Hizb itself was truly cornered and arguably reached the maximum it could realistically achieve through militairly terms. The Jabal war was unwanted but the Hizb was dragged to it. The South is largely under the UNIFIL. The North was falling quickly under Sunni/Hariri/M14 control, and the Bekaa Gharbee would have been very hard to attack given the sensitives and the tribal structure of the region. The Christian areas between Ashrafieh and Batroun remain completely outside the Hizb scope. This leaves the Hizb with west Beirut (for now) and the Dahiyee, in addition to far flung regios in Baalbak-Hermel. The south is a difficult place for the Hizb to have a free reign.

In total, unlike many naive and superficial assessments, the Hizb has cornered itself and has really hit a hard wall. There was little more for them to do. The Doha agreement coming only few months before elections brings more benefits to Lebanon and M14 than to Hizbo and M8.

[Bad Vilbel]

Interesting spin, Sami.

[Sami]

BV, you don't agree? You sometimes have to put yourself in the other side shoes to figure out what their next moves could have been?

[linda]

Jeha: "Just take the clerics and politicos out of the way, and see what we can do." Beside providing good services in the sectors of banking, medicine, academics and tourism I still don't know what else we have. Our "brains" are being drained out of the country at high speed and what is left is the hope that they will come back to spend their hard earned dollars on the economy. It seems that the Hezbo analysis is a more apetizing topic here anyway. So what was the score? 10 hezbo 2 hariri & co?

[Libnani]

"Giving a veto power to Hizbolla (mind you it is only a veto power as long as the Aounists vote with him and only on limited issues only and they have no right to resign) is like retracting the two government decisions regarding the communication network and the airport secruity, since they are both irrelevant to Hizbolla."

You are right Sami, the veto power, the communication network and Mr. Shoucair at the airport are not important to Hezbollah. This has all been a dream.

[Bad Vilbel]

Sami,

Yes, I disagree. I've already made my case in previous comments here and in the previous thread, so I won't repeat myself and bore the other readers with it. You're welcome to scroll back and read my take on the situation.

I just thought yours was an interesting (and different) way of looking at things. I can't say that I share in the sentiment that was somehow a win for March 14 and that HA is in a corner. Sorry.

I suppose upcoming events will prove one of us right and the other wrong.

[ghassan karam]

On a lighter note, Doha has been very good for Sa'ad Hariri, financially that is. It is reputed that he owns 20% of the shares There are 100million sharesA and 65 million sharesB. The price per share has increased by 12 dollars which makes Sa'ad richer by almost $400 million. Not bad.

[Bad Vilbel]

Indeed. And I wouldn't surprised if guys like Berri, Jumblatt, Gemayel and whatever front Hezb is using aren't also major shareholders (not to mention the Saudi and Qatari types).

In the US, this kind of thing would call for an SEC investigation.

But not in Lebanon of course.

Talk about conflict of interest. The same guys who stir up political trouble, and who know exactly when it will end (since they're the ones ending it) can go buy shares low during the upheaval and make a killing.

[ghassan karam]

BV,
You are not off the mark here. The share price shot up just hours before the announcement. Someone or maybe a group of someones made big bucks on this inside information. Small purchases are not enough to move the price of a relatively large company. Inside information is the only possible explanation.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan

It really doesn't take that much detective work on this one. I mean, you don't even need INSIDE news when you're the guy INSIDE, you know? (By that i mean the guys who were meeting in Doha).

Yeah, i'm going to go ahead and assume that everyone in Doha (from the smallest MP all the way up to Hariri and Berri) are a few million richer today than they were last week.

[Sydney2008]

Ghassan and BV,

So are you implying that these guys accept the Doha accord for financial benefits? That is a bit simplistic...

[ghassan karam]

What is simplistic, Sydney2008, is when you go ahead and interpret what we said the way that you did.
In one week the volume has increased by a multiple of 10 and the price by 50%. Not a bad rate of return if you can find it.
I just thought that the above was interesting. I do not want to carry this discussion any further.

[Sydney2008]

When you write on this blog you assume that new bloggers understand your background or already read your old postings...Just make your points clearer if your purpose is to reach beyond your intimate circle of mates
cheers

[Bad Vilbel]

I think it's been pretty obvious that neither Ghassan nor myself implied Doha's sole purpose was financial profit. It's just a nice side effect for those concerned. That's all.

[R]

By the way, it looks like the election of Sleiman is going to proceed without amending the constitution. Does anyone with legal experience have any idea what that means with regards to his legitimacy?

[ghassan karam]

R,
The explanation that has been circulated in the Lebanese press runs as follows. A new scholarly interpretation ( I don't believe that there were any names attached to it) uses a particular ruling that was once issued bt the Constitutional Council which says that in an emergency it is permitted to suspend the constitutional provisions provided that the party that is interested in that suspension petitions the Constitutional Council in advance so that they may render an opinion. But since there is no Constitutional Council ( remember that the current Cabinet dissolved the Council and never bothered to appoint a new one although they were required by the constitution to do so within 30 days) so no such petition will be made. This opens the possibility for impeachment but ,the opinion goes on to say, to start impeachment proceedings a request signed by 1/3 of the members is needed. Since all members have expressed a desire to have Suleiman elected then the possibility of starting impeachment proceedings is nill.
I might have committed an error here or there in recounting the basis upon which Suleiman is being elected but in the final analysis the/we are saying one more time during one of the most solemn occasions that laws and institutions don't count. These institutions and laws are decorative in nature and we can do what ever we please whenever we want.

[bad vilbel]

Or.....we could use the REAL reasoning:

"We don't give a rat's ass about the constitution or the legality of it. We do as we please. We are Lebanese politicians, dammit!"

:)

[Sydney2008]

BV
Good on you...already that veto thing is unconstitutional...where in the constitution or any precedent sthg that allows an armed party and its allies to snatch a veto and paralyse the work of teh Executive...
By the way, for people who argue taht HA won't use his arms internally, they are right but for another reason which is the veto:
the military power has been transformed into a veto which is a political gain ...it is interesting to see how that one will work
On the other hand, if in the next election the so called position win are they going to allow the other side to use a veto as well?

[Andre]

We all know that Suleiman will be the next president, however, it would be interesting to find out what back room maneuvers are taking place to appoint the new PM? Saniora is not likely to retain his position given the many animosities towards him from the opposing camp. I can't see Hariri wanting to get himself into the position although his name is now at the top of the list...The next PM will have his work cut out for him and will need to play a balancing act among all parties. Suleiman will have to arbitrate but with only three seats it'll be interesting to see how he does that to maintain a balance....what a wonderful system of government we do have, something to marvel at! DWS

[Sydney2008]

In democratic systems only one political group is in charge of the executive...Even in authocratic regimes, you have a unified executive...In Lebanon, i can't see how the opposition and the majority will make decisions.Can someone enlighten me?

[Bad Vilbel]

Andre,

You're a bit late on that PM conjecture. Read the news. :)
According to Naharnet, Amin Gemayel has already nominated Hariri for the post, and (irony of all ironies), and i quote Naharnet: "Hizbullah and Amal movement tend toward nominating Hariri as prime minister to defuse sectarian tension. "

BUT, Naharnet also reports:
"Hizbullah will not approve a ministerial statement that would not acknowledge the legitimacy of the resistance. "

Remember what I said earlier today in response to the Michael Young piece: All we're doing here is legitimizing HA's weapons, through a new ministerial statement. There will be no "further discussion" about them. I'm as pessimistic as ever.

Parsing through seemingly unrelated news items, I am also starting to smell something regional (as has been hinted at already). Someone somewhere, has made a deal about Iran/Iraq/Syria/Israel.. it's no coincidence that in one day we have news of Israeli-Syrian talks, collapse of the Mahdi Army in Iraq, the Doha deal in Lebanon, and various "odd" statements by the likes of Condi Rice, etc....Something's afoot. And i am afraid the deal is at the expense of Lebanon. As usual.

[Sydney2008]

Condi Rice commenting on HA latest coup:

"What it is, is a militia that, given an opportunity, decided to turn its guns on its own people. It is never going to live that down," she said."

Ms. Rice does not understand the spirit of terrorim: they could care less ...if their weapons are threatened they will resort to the same tactic...

[Fuziyad]

The issue of who will be the next PM is VERY important....

Everyone seems to want Saad as PM except Saad himself and probably the saudisa nd the interantional community. Makes sense...Saad is too unexpiremented to be PM also this gov will be difficult to manage and this will end up lowering saad popularity which is a dangerous game...

The opposition of course is aware of that and this is why they want saad PM and not Fouad Sanioura...

What is sad is that many among march 14(psp, lf, kataeb) would prefer saad to sanioura as PM as they have more influence on saad and will have more power if the goverenment is run as groupement of clans than as a real state institution.

Last but not least Sanioura himself doesn't feel like being PM again as he is fed up of being used as a punching ball by the opposition and also often by m14 themselves. Hope dawlat el ra2is will come back on his decision and come back as PM so that a least we have a small hope to maintain the very little we have left from the cedar revolution

[Andre]

I agree with Fuziyad. Hariri will be very uncomfortable in that position given his inexperience in navigating the treacherous waters of being a PM. Gemayel and others may want him there, but there are many considerations that need to be taken into consideration, least of which the type of abuse that he will have to put up with when Hizb reverts back to their obstructive games to embarass him as the leader of M14. In any case, whoever ends up in that position will need to muster all that they can to deal with the many serious issues on the table and having to put up with the Hizb's new found veto power within the government.

Due to the fact that the tenure of this cabinet will be a very short one...till 2009 May elections, Hariri will not jeopardize his position in the Sunni heartland by becoming soiled in day to day bickering. The formation of the cabinet might take a while as HA will insist on getting the "card blanche" re "resis
tance" being included in the ministirial statement.

As summer is upon Lebanon, the next 12 months will be spent on bribing the populace to "earn" the next election victory...of course the ID cards of the dead are being renewed in the meantime.

[theCourtFool]

Those who are trying to find victors or loosers are the enemy of Lebanon. We can't impose our will on any other Lebanese community.

Lebanon came out the winner... proof, go down to the streets, look at last week, and don't miss out next weeks' or the summer AHEAD!!

[Max Power]

Hariri has been waiting for awhile to rid of Sinoira. It will interesting to see where Fuad settles and it could be a sign of things to come. If he stays in Lebanon, HA and M14 are going to play nice. However, who else thinks he's headed to Cote D'Azur with a nice Golden Parchute?

This article is a funny read, I love the sunshine and optimism. Armenians are now kingmakers? They just lost seats after helping HA win the Sheikh Pierre seat. They lost alot of leverage.

As for the profits made, I wouldn't put it past them. This type of enviornment creates this type of atmosphere.

Once again, I find myself agreeing with BV. Doha doesn't address the core problem at hand.

This all comes down to the Lebanese having to figure out who they are as a collective entity and moving forward.

[Min Canada]

Earlier I highlighted the issue of how Slyman will be elected and if the Gov will bring a constit. Amendment to affect the change to allow him to become the president legally. This was a test to see if some concessions were given by M8 that were not in the broad outlines of the agreement, but that were significant to M14.

It now looks like M14 could not pull that off eaither. The Gov may not even be invited to the Parlament according to the latest news. Take that for Ta3ayush Mushtarak. And La Ghalib wala Maghloub.

So sunday will cross a milestone of people power defeat as Slyman becomes the unconstitutional president of Lebanon elected FOR the people, BY the arabs, OF the army. ((Not by the people for the people and from the people)).

The next milestone to look at is the New Cabinet statement of policy. How will the new PM (I'm not convinced Saad will take the roll) manage to placate HA without inshrining the weapons as non-negotiable. Will they capitulate on this too? What will the people of Lebanon do? Or will they still be drunk in their celebration of the Summer holidays to come?

Speaking of summer holidays, I hate to be the barer of bad news, but just because HA won the internal struggle, does not mean that the forecast of a "Hot summer" is past us. All this frenzy to prepare for the tourists and make nice to HA so that we can have our vacations may be effort spent in the wrong place. As the peace talks with Syria progress, Israel may test Syria's resolve for peace by putting it between two choices:
1) Stand on the side and watch HA being killed in exchange for continued peace talks, or
2) Show the world that they are not ready for peace by supporting a "Terrorist Organization", and that the Syrians have not changed.

So for all those who are planning tourist trips to Lebanon and rejoicing the summer vacation to come at the expense of the nation, just make sure you have exit plans and that your the Gov to whom you pay taxes have the intention to pick you asses out of there this time.

I am disgusted with the Madinat al-Malahi attitued. Shaab Khara!!!!

"So for all those who are planning tourist trips to Lebanon and rejoicing the summer vacation to come at the expense of the nation..." Why is it that betting on a "happy summer" equals to a nation betrayal by those who want it???? Resisting HA no matter what is the same as HA resisting Israel no matter the cost. What is your solution Min Canada? You sound like those who cheered the Israelis in 06 and wanted the "khabit" to continue "bass ta ykhalsouna mennoun"... Yes it is a cancer and yes I will put up with chemio since the "surgery" might cost the patient his life as we know it (current map and current configuration). No need to compare every Lebanese landing this summer to vacation into a piece of crap. It is a bit over the top. What are the Canadian Embassy plans for their evac btw.

[aboujahl]

Friends: I am sorry but I find this the weirdest kind of thinking common sense can find! Goodbye Lebanon, goodbye democracy ...... that was all sickening!

[Sami]

Saad Hariri should not and probably will not become a PM for two simple reasons: 1- He won't go to Syria on official visits and meet with Assad whom he just accussed again of killing his father one week ago on TV; 2- He won't be able to be both a PM and an elections rallier in the coming elections.

So it is either Saniora (whom I doubt he personally wants to do this anytime soon given his family life), or another FM personality.

I personally think they should make Safadi the PM, a gift to him from FM, which will make him happy and allied to the movement in the next elections. Karami and Mikati are already trying to sitimulte Safadi towards them.

[ghassan karam]

Linda,
You are making feel guilty because I feel that I am the one started all of this about "summers and joie de vivre". I did not mean anything personal and if I hurt your feelings then I am sorry. I do go to Lebanon practically every summer also. There do you feel better. Seriously though, all what I meant is that it is time that we pay more attention to those that are less fortunate. During my visits I eat at the fanciest restaurants , listen to great Jazz and go to some exclusive beaches because I act as a visitor and a tourist. I have a few spare dollars and they need my dollars so it is a good deal for both of us. What irks me though is that very few of the Lebanese can afford these fancy and expensive facilities. My guess is that Lebanon is wonderful in catering only to the top 5-10a5 of its population. Anyway I just don't want you to feel put upon as a result of my insensitive remark yesterday. Enjoy your trip. (Don't wear your two piece swim suit around the Dahieh, Hassoun might feel ofended:-))