The jubilation of ordinary citizens happy to see the occupation of downtown Beirut ending failed to leave an impression on those who are convinced the Doha agreement was an act of surrender to Hizbullah.
After more than 18 months of occupation and recently, use of force against citizens, some critics are telling Lebanese people that their government has just signed their country away to the Iranian-Syrian axis. The culpable party, March 14, is accused of selling out, whether out of weakness, or sheer stupidity.
In July 2006, this blog was fiercely anti-war, and anti-Hizbullah. When this last war broke out, my first impulse, which remained unpublished, was to call for the resignation of the Siniora cabinet, and holding new elections, in order to avoid an unnecessary and foolish war, and to produce fresh options. Today, I cannot but note March 14's success in steering the country away from the trap that was laid by the warmongers.
Over the past weeks, Jumblatt and Hariri, and others, were driven by a single idea: avoiding war. This country, folks, cannot survive another civil war between its communities. Your commitment to an independent and free Lebanon cannot exist in vacuum. The agreement they signed was not ideal, it was the best possible solution, to paraphrase Geagea. Its perceived weakness may have been in giving in to Hizbullah and giving them veto power. But its strength is in deferring to the state's institutions, and committing parties to never resorting to violence to achieve political gains. Whether or not they will honor this commitment is another story that is worthy of follow up, and also worthy of turning into a fresh starting point.
The battle for Lebanon is not over, but at least it's off the streets. If you subscribe to the notion that Hizbullah suffered political defeat by using their guns domestically, then you have to allow yourself to also believe that they will think long and hard before they venture into another occupation and assault on Lebanese citizens.
March 14 was stuck, as was Lebanon, between regional existential battles (and in its own). This isn't in defense of the politicians who make up the coalition. But going to war was never an option. And if peace isn't achievable, then truce and "coexistence" is good enough, until those around us, friends and foes, figure out their place in this universe, and settle their scores outside our border. We are not alone, nor are we free. Look at Iraq, Syria and Israel, and quit thinking that the world revolves around Lebanon. We're too small, too divided, and too weak to have the kind of superheroes that other, more advanced, cultures sold us in fairy tales. The best we can do, at this time, is to avoid killing each other in the name of a battle that will bring defeat if it ever becomes red in tooth and claw.
"You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor, and you will have war."
Posted by: Patrick Henry | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 04:23 PM
AK,
I think the above commentary seems to disregard a couple of things in the name of avoiding war.
1. We didn't really avoid war in 2006, nor in May 2008. And the very likely result of Doha is that will experience war again in the near future.
So while your logic makes sense if war was avoided completely in return for veto power and similar concessions, it doesn't really make sense in this case because war was not and is not being avoided.
2. Your logic, again, is predicated on the following points (which I quote):
"But its strength is in deferring to the state's institutions, and committing parties to never resorting to violence to achieve political gains."
We've seen in the past (Taef, UN resolutions 1701 and 1559) that on-paper commitments mean absolutely nothing. ZERO. The commitment to eschew violence is worth absolutely nothing, coming from the people who have gone back on their word time and again.
As for "deferring to the state's institutions", again, we're kidding ourselves if we think this agreement is suddenly going to make HA defer to the state institutions about anything. These are nothing but words on paper. What you should be looking at, in your analysis, is facts and actions, not words (which often contradict actions, as we all know). What this agreement REALLY means (as opposed to what it says on paper) is that we go back to status quo. The "state" gets to function the way it always has when it comes to paving roads and putting up street signs, and anytime a real issue comes up (a political or military issue), it gets handled outside the state institutions (as those things always have) with the obvious implication here being that if HA doesn't get its way, it will veto (international tribunal issues, HA weapons issues).
So to me, this agreement is tantamount to enshrining the way we did things in Lebanon between 2005 and 2008 on a piece of paper. Nothing more.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 04:36 PM
Here we go, right on cue, as if to prove my points:
10:27pm Aoun said had it not been for the military operations (by Hizbullah) the Arabs wouldn't have moved to help Lebanon.
(BV commentary: In other words this agreement was signed at gunpoint. M14 gave in to blackmail. Precedent for this has now been established)
10:25 Aoun said he believes the majority would not nominate Saniora to head the new cabinet.
(BV: Good riddance)
10:20pm Aoun said Hizbullah weapons do not scare off the Lebanese.
(BV: Really? I could've sworn they did just that.)
And last, but MOST SIGNIFICANT:
10:15pm Aoun said the Doha Accord is binding until the 2009 parliamentary elections only.
(BV: In other words, come 2009, all bets are off, and if HA doesn't win the parliamentary majority, it will feel free to use its weapons yet again, and resort to blackmail through sit-ins and paralysis of state institutions. How do you like them apples?
So keep on celebrating postponing the inevitable war with yet another band-aid. A year, tops. And then we WILL be repeating this whole episode, and the Lebanese people will once again whine and complain about it without ever trying to actually solve the problem. More people will die. And we'll once again pat ourselves on the back for "avoiding war". Folks, just because it's not a quick and violent war like 2006 doesn't mean it's not a war. Just because people die slower, over a longer period of time, doesn't mean it's not a war. This war has been going on since 1969 and it's not over yet. So spare me the "avoiding war" talk.)
PS: Sorry for the double post, accidental HTML tag ate up half my commentary on the previous attempt.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 05:00 PM
Very good post, AK - I actually expected to read something that would better suit my very depressed state of mind. It is a very bitter pill to swallow, and I am choking on it. I hope you are correct in your intelligent analysis, and this oh-so-lebanese compromise was done because anything else would have plunged the country into another bloody war.
But I can't help thinking of the rumblings coming recently from south of the border (the leb one i mean) where military minds were suggesting how much easier it would be to finish off Lebanon once HA takes over completely. Is this what the future holds? And do you really believe that once a bully has succeeded in cowing others with the use of force, some miracle would happen, and they wouldn't be doing it again? There are no restraining orders here.
I am so depressed today.
Posted by: bint ras beyrouth | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 05:18 PM
I’m inclined to agree with you AK (wow that doesn’t happen very often!!), but as usual I’m going to have to disagree with BV (sorry!).
Yes, Lebanon cannot survive another war. You only need to live elsewhere to realize how far behind Lebanon is even without a war. Partition will not work either. It has been tried before including during the 16 years of war and it hasn’t worked so how can it work now? Mini-Lebanese states can never be viable (Even the much more advanced Quebec or Texas can never be viable states). So I hope BV and others (who seem to keep promoting war mongering and partition) can finally get this through their heads... Hezbostan is only a figment of BV’s imagination.
I also find it very interesting that BV keeps referring to UN 1701 and 1559, but never mentions 425 and 246 (1978) and the lesser known 270 (1969), 347 (1974), 450 (1979) etc etc etc some of which have been on the table for almost forty years. As one Chinese UN diplomat ironically remarked recently, the west keeps raising 1701/1559 and seem to ignore the other resolutions because the former favor Israel whereas the latter condemn it. Funny thing how hypocrisy and double standards work…
But I must agree with one point that BV mentions which is the primacy of Lebanon’s institution over HA or any other parties.
Obama got it half right when he remarked recently that to eliminate HA, the Lebanese state has to address the social needs of the Shia population. This has been a void through the Lebanon’s history (hence the Shia’s claim to being the “dispossessed”) and one that HA has been very successful in filling. I say Obama is only half right because he missed (willingly or not) the fact that another equally important need is for security and specifically defense/military deterrent against Israel.
Part of HA’s popularity is that it is seen as the “resistance” and the reason that the south is (almost) free of occupation and is seen as the reason why Israel is not building illegal settlements in Lebanon today as they are doing in the West Bank. Whether we like it or not, Lebanon and especially the Shia (who after all live in the part of the country that has come under occupation and they believe that it could happen again) has this “security” need and HA has shown itself to be the only force capable of meeting this need.
I’m all for “eliminating” HA in its present form, but to do so you have to find a way of meeting these needs and filling the void. The needs will not go away by just trying to “defeat” HA militarily and/or politically…
Posted by: Macemuscle | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 05:21 PM
BV, I don't disagree with the points you're making, and you'll probably find that I made them even before many of you discovered this blog. I wasn't celebrating anything. I am also not placing blind faith in Hizbullah or anyone else. You should know better. Just keep in mind that some people (especially those directly locked in this struggle) also see what you see, and more. Cheers.
Posted by: AK | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 05:22 PM
Regarding my comment above on how far behind Lebanon is to the rest of the world, by way of example, watch the YouTube below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMcfrLYDm2U
Then THINK...
And while your thinking, think of what Lebanon has contributed to the new world (hint: nothing!!!)
And if you still think Lebanon is the center of the world and the U.S. / Israel / Iran / Syria / etc will ever come to our rescue... think again!!
Posted by: Macemuscle | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 05:43 PM
AK,
Fair enough. I apologize if my tone is a bit rough lately. It's been a very tough pill to swallow these last few days.
The key for me, is what Bint Ras Beirut said (and Aoun is already alluding to, before the ink is even dry on Doha): Once you give in to blackmail, you're pretty much guaranteed the blackmail will repeat. It's only a matter of time. We are just postponing the inevitable, and it WILL repeat, yet again.
Macemuscle,
I didn't say anything about resolutions 425 because it is completely irrelevant to this current discussion.
And for the record, I am not pro-war mongering. If anything, if you read the mantra I've repeated for the past 2-3 weeks, you'd see that I think no one can disarm HA but the Shia community itself. Not the Lebanese Army, not the other sects, and not foreign armies. So by extension, I don't see the point in fighting a civil war to disarm HA, which I do not believe will succeed.
And I am also not pro-partition. I offered a suggestion, a few weeks ago, that perhaps (emphasis on PERHAPS) as a result of my belief that only the Shia community can disarm HA, it should be left to its own devices, will the remainder of Lebanon focused on other things (some people used the world decentralization, or federalism, or whatever). After debating the merit of that idea, I was convinced by many of you that it wouldn't work and I moved on. That's what civilized debates do. :)
I guess I'm just a bit bitter today because all I'm seeing on the news outlets and the blogs, are pictures of balloons and folks rejoicing, and I frankly don't get it. People are happy that another band-aid was applied to a patient dying of cancer. It is pretty obvious to anyone with a pulse that the tumor is getting bigger and that the patient's organs are failing....what are they celebrating?
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 05:45 PM
If Lebanon was smart, they would sign a peace treaty with Israel. That would eliminate Hezbollah's justification for their weapons and their existence. With one piece of paper you can cut out the legs from under them.
Look at Jordan and Egypt. Both border Israel. Both have peace treaties. Neither have Hezbollah within their states telling them how to run things.
Once you do that, Hezbollah legally becomes nothing but armed thugs.
Posted by: Ron Larson | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 05:49 PM
And Mace,
I compltely agree with your latter comment about how far behind Lebanon is. I've been mocking those who like to say how "smart" we Lebanese are for some time now, and calling us, as a collective, morons and imbeciles. Just yesterday I was lamenting the fact that in an increasingly globalized world, where all races and ethnicities are blending in together to create some marvelous technological, medical, and other advances, our little corner of the Middle East is still busy worrying about whether this Sunni candidate will get that extra electoral seat in Beirut, or what to do with Jews and Palestinian refugees, fussing about a couple of pieces of desert.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 05:49 PM
"Over the past weeks, Jumblatt and Hariri, and others, were driven by a single idea: avoiding war."
Give me a break. They made a play to force a showdown and when Hezbollah called their bluff, they realized that neither the US, Israel, or their arab brothers were going to save their butts.
They could've spared the entire country this whole ordeal if they agreed to the 1/3 cabinet demand of the opposition more than 2 years ago.
Posted by: tg | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 05:55 PM
ya zalameh, kellak hikmeh. Great post.
I have to agree with you, with a proviso.
Yes, it was a surrender. and Yes, the surrender was the only option, short of a civil war.
However, we should note that those guys got us here thanks to their shortsightedness. And there is no guarantee that they will be able to move things forward.
They've wasted a good hand before. They are likely to waste a worse hand now.
Posted by: Jeha | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 06:20 PM
I totally agree with you AK. I have been advocating external intervention and still think it will happen, but the idea that the Lebanese M14 should rise up and take arms against HA and make war is the dream of those who can't think beyond their nose. The outcome of such a civil war will be very decisive and swift and we all know that HA will win.
M14 held them off as much as they could using diplomacy and poker bluffing tactics when they all knew they wouldn't stand a chance if HA took up arms. They held them off until the court was a reality and a year away fom elections. That is very good. We have a year to breath and then we will see. Until then nothing significant will happen.
I think M14 had no confidence in the US coming to their aid and they were proven right. The best they could do is pull a few wins they gave nothing away. The 11 members of Gov. will stop nothing becuase nothing of importance will come to the table. Anyway we could clearly see that nothing of importance would be passed by the Seniora Gov. without causing a revolt so nothing has changed on that.
More later
Posted by: Min Canada | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 06:37 PM
Ak I happen to have a completely different reading of the events than the one that you have posted. Obviously I cannot speak for anybody else but myself but to make the blanket statement that those who do not like the declaration of capitulation as war mongers is wrong and borders on the irresponsible.
You are familiar with my position better than most since I have been a regular reader and occasional poster on this blog since its inception. I have never called for war and I never will. Usually I describe myself as an "almost pacifist" because I abhor violence of all sorts, physical , verbal and psychological. Yet when I see ineptness and incompetence I feel obliged to call the shots as I see them. To do otherwise is a betrayal of what is right and decent. Principals are important, they are the only important thing. Plato was given the opportunity to save himself by telling his accusers that he is sorry for what he has done. Had he done that then the world would not have spent the past 3000 years studying , analyzing and using him as a model for what is the good life.
I have rarely been on the wining side politically. To have a party that I support lose is nothing new. What many posters have referred to as the inability to lose is totally alien to me. What is important is to play the game by its rules and to be principled. My disgust and disappointment with March 14 is that they are a bunch of of politicians that I had lent my support only based on the alternative. But yet I would have expected them to adhere to some minimum principles, to have a backbone, to stand up for something and not to fold like the proverbial tent.
Yes, the fight is not over. Again as you might recall I have always maintained that HA et al will not be victorious in the long run. I still maintain that position. But that does not mean that March 14 have a carte blanche to sink to new lows every day.
It is time to deny the politicians of March 14 our moral support and to seek new leadershipo that is willing to restore spme dignity and principle to the process. If our interest is to lay the foundation for a new society for all Lebanese then we must be willing to take responsibility for our actions, to stop the silly process of artificial personal worship and of looking at the inhabitants of the country through only one prism. I refuse to define anyone by their religion, national origin, gender or sexual orientation. And please do noyt tell me that this is a tall order. I know that. But everything that is worth while in life is a tall order. We have the moral obligation not to give on on our basic elemental beliefs , we cannot play the convenient game of "selling" out what we believe in because of some constraints. We have no choice but to treat these difficult issues as goals but we sure never have the right to engage in appeasement.
What was accomplished ib Doha was a step backward regarding everything that I holdbelieve in and value. I cannot accept it and I have no choice but to hold the March 14 leadership reponsible for the sorry state of affairs. Civil societies, even those that are still learning to walk,must hold people accountable for their actions, Illegal, activities and hooliganism must not be rewarded even at the point of a gun and incompetent leadership has to be replaced.
Ak, I think that I have said enough although I feel that I can go on and on and on.
Posted by: ghassan karam | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 06:42 PM
Hizbullah will be back again, asking for more, knowing of the fear of their weapons and their will to use force. The opposition to Hizbullah will be reduced one by one. Expect more assassinations. Hizbullah will engineer more 'emergencies' as they know it is to their advantage. Stop day dreaming about it, face it realistically. The Christians, Sunnis, and anti-Hizbullah Shia should unite and drive Hizbullah out of Lebanon, or look forward to the degradation of dhimmitude, or worse, death.
Posted by: Arius | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 07:02 PM
tg,
Believe in your propaganda if you wish. I can hear your patrons' HA's allies (Orangebutts) already making threats ahead of 2009 elections....So please spare us your sanctimonious wisdom!!
BV, you and I know that as far as the Mullahs of Iran have not combusted, Lebanon's heroes of divine victories will terrorize and get their own way. Our hopes of a secular and civilized nation have to wait a long while. As everything comes to an end, so will these jihadists' rein of terror. Nothing lasts forever.
I repeat that “elections” will not change anything. Firstly they will be held at the barrel of the gun and cannon; secondly even if the Hizb loses; they’ll invade and loot and murder and we’ll give them what they want and declare victory!!!
The sorriest excuse is: …”we’re trying to avoid civil war”…hah??? Than they should not express anything contrary to the HA!!
Sometimes I marvel at some idiots' remarks, who coincidentally enjoy everything in USA and attack the western and US values...Talk about hypocrisy! Let's follow the steps these lords of surrender and appeasement will take in the near future...
Posted by: danny | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 07:07 PM
Ghassan,
We are in complete agreement on this one. 100%. That was the gist of my disagreement with AK's post here.
And like you, I do not understand why I am being painted as a war-monger, when I've explicitly said that HA cannot be disarmed by force, and certainly not by M14. Only the Shia community itself can divest itself of HA. So right there, that clearly means I am NOT advocating M14 take up arms.
Having said that, much like you, I do not understand why it had to be complete capitulation. M14 didn't have to take up arms. They could've simply refused to submit to HA's diktat and let HA at least work for it and suffer its consequences. Let them continue with civil disobedience and filling the streets with their armed thugs. Don't fight back except with words. Go into exile if you must (Hariri, Jumblatt, Geagea) and let HA do their thing, and break the country even more. Maybe then enough people will get fed up with them and someone will formulate more will to tackle the real issues.
But the capitulation of M14 pretty much gave HA the best of both worlds. They got what they wanted, AND they didn't have to pay for it and what's worse, the status quo is now enshrined in paper.
Min Canada was disappointed that the West didn't come to our aid then. You think they're going to come to our aid now that we've actually SIGNED A PIECE OF PAPER LEGITIMIZING HA IN THE CABINET?
Again,
I am repeating myself over and over, but I am really annoyed at the disconnect I am hearing here, where somehow, railing on this capitulation somehow makes me a warmonger. Quite the contrary. It is my firm belief that HA could've been resisted a lot better peacefully without ever crying UNCLE. As with your Plato example, M14 has now lost all legitimate claim it might have ever had on the international scene. There REALLY is no helping Lebanon now. In my mind, those who are happy with this capitulation are the warmongers, for they've pretty much guaranteed us another confrontation, an uglier one, with no Western support whatsoever, in the very near future.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 07:19 PM
Ghassan,
"warmongers" was in reference to Hizbullah, not you, BV or those who didn't appreciate the terms of the Doha agreement. I believe the sentence was clear. Having said that, those who want new "leaders" to better represent their interests are welcome to go elect new ones, if they can see beyond their sectarian noses.
Posted by: AK | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 07:53 PM
Ghassan,
"warmongers" was in reference to Hizbullah, not you, BV or those who didn't appreciate the terms of the Doha agreement. I believe the sentence was clear. Having said that, those who want new "leaders" to better represent their interests are welcome to go elect new ones, if they can see beyond their sectarian noses.
Posted by: AK | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 07:56 PM
I love all these posts that rail at the people celebrating - but fail to see that those same people accepted that Hezbollah took over their entire country and political process. Until this attitude changes .. nothing else will change. "Change" rarely comes from leaders - it comes from the people and the Lebanese people are used to the line of least resistance (forgive the pun).
Also - lots of talk about Hezbollah and almost none about the man that made it all possible for him to do this- Michel Aoun. Hezbo could have never held Lebanon hostage and unleashed his army against Lebanese without Aoun. Now Aoun will call himself a "hero" and the people will probably eventually buy that. It already seems forgotten that Aoun made it all possible for Nasrallah. There will be a few that continue to talk about Aoun, but many will forget and buy his spin to erase all this.
You all want new leaders and that's a great excuse for not supporting the ones you have. Anyone with a brain leaves Lebanon and those that remain sometimes do the best they can. Next elections - if you don't like the M14 slate, then vote for the alternative. At least that way you are backing a "winner".
Posted by: Ace | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 08:09 PM
hello all,
I still beleive that the only way out of this impasse is to create a balance of power through the arming of other factions...After Hizbollah coup, people especially in Beitut, North and jabal won't trust these thugs or even the 14th of March coalation of loosers...It may seem unrealistic right now...but for sure someone is unhappy about the growth of HIZB will be ready to supply arms...
The cliche that the west won't come to rescue us is a bit naive...they only can come to help if they have interests and if we can prove that we are ready to take our rights by our hands...
NB:
1-the Syria-Israel talk will only be fruitful if Syria promises to weaken HIZB...that won't be in Iran's interests
2-Through Doha, HIZB proved that he has the upper arm so why they will let Syria expands in Lebanon and share a piece of the pie...Now it is different: Syria out Iran in...
3-HIZB do not need a great support from Syria and they are aware of their talk with Israel...so we will see less enthusiasm towards Syria in the coming year...
4-Doha allows Iran to have some time between now and the next USA election to decide what approach to take towards Israel and the west..she might not need to resort to waging war aginst Israel if Obama is in power and allows him to acquire the Nuclear weapons
The bottom line, if Lebanon becomes the property of HIZB, they will think twice before destroying it...however all non-hizb people including other 8th MArch leaders an dfollowers will be the new political "ahl thouma"...ypou know what that means
Cheers
Posted by: pragmatism works | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 08:12 PM
Ak,
I wasn't referring to your use of the term "warmonger". I was referring to comments such as this one by Macemuscle:
"So I hope BV and others (who seem to keep promoting war mongering and partition) can finally get this through their heads... Hezbostan is only a figment of BV’s imagination."
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 08:15 PM
AK, I was not making reference to the actual word , warmongers, otherwise I would have put it in quotation marks. I was referring to the implied references that those that disagreed with Doha were favouring war. Allow me to disagree again but here is an exact quote from your post: "This country, folks, cannot survive another civil war between its communities. " the implication being that Doha was the honorable way out.
I am afraid that we will have to agree to disagree on this one. Doha did not have to happen. If the state cannot exist with integrity then maybe it should not exist at all. IMHO my disagreement with Doha is deeply entrenched to the extent that I find it difficult to contemplate other interpretations. But this is what makes a horse race isn't it?
Posted by: ghassan karam | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 08:16 PM
AK,
Then are fighting words; "if they can see beyond their sectarian noses". Of course we can't, we're Lebanese.
(Bad) Joke aside, the deal will lead to another sectarian deal, at the detriment of Aoun. On one aspect, the sectarian balance in some areas will be heightened, such as in Akkar and Baalbeck. But the sectarian aspects are likely to be lessened elsewhere if the elections are allowed to go through by the 60 law. And 2009 will see some strange bedfellows; depending if the law allows for "closed lists" or not, Nayla and Slimi could make-up, Gemayel and Murr would gang up on Aoun, and Hezb may be confronted with a surprisingly strong Assaad.
So we may end up with a balance that allows us to see beyond our "sectarian noses".
Posted by: Jeha | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 08:25 PM
HOW HISTORY SHOULD RECORD WHAT HAPPENED.
Yesterday as I was waiting for the news from Doha, I turned on CNN to watch the other news: The US Elections. I heard the speech of Obama and couldn't help relating it to Lebanon. "Change" Said Obama. "You are the change. You the people of Iowa ... make the change and force the polititions in Washington to change course". Call it political campaigning if you wish, but he is right. The people make the change. We saw that in the Cedar revolution. The world had to act becuase the people acted.
Then I got to thinking: What have the people done since then?
- When all the members of parlament were in the building but not in the hall, did the people encircle the Parlament and force the polititians to elect a president? No.
- When the tent city was set up in Beirut, did a counter tent city spring up? No.
- When The election was postponed for the Nth time did the people take to the street to demand a president? No.
- When HA made their incident in Ain el-Rimmaneh (I think), did the people rise up the next day and take to the street in peaceful protest agains violance? No.
- When HA was stearing down the Gov. After they made their two decisions but before they took over Beirut, did the people rise up peacefully to support the Gov. decision? No.
- After HA took over Beirut did they rise peacefully to say no to the weapons of HA? No.
We want to blame someone. I admit I also did that. I blamed the allies who did not show up. But this revolution was started by the people, but then the people delegated the revolution to M14 and they forgot to support them.
It wasn't Geagea or Saad who forced the Gov of Karami to resign, or who shell-shocked the Syrians to withdraw or HA to hide. It wasn't the politicians who made the UNSC force Syria to withdraw back then. It was the people. The millions who filled the streets of every city in Lebanon and who took over Beirut without a single bullet and in less time than HA took to secure it. It was...the people. It is when the people of Lebanon, to use an Obama line said "Yes I can" that the Emperor was left on the street naked for all to see. Bashar fled and his cronies hid when the people said "Yes I can".
That was 2005. Where did the people go? How did they sustain THEIR revolution? They didn't. They delegated it to a few politicians and did not support them with the people power that legitimized their deligation. So instead of relying on the people, the politicians started relying on other powers for support. Instead of following the people of the revolution, they started to follow the White house. The people fell silent. They went home, slipped off their revolution shirts, wore the Armanis and went out to the Madinat al-Malahi.
We never really heard from the people again. Sure there were a few demonstrations here and there, but these were staged demonstrations not spontanious people power demonstrations and the opposition knew these were half hearted. They knew they had waited the vigor of the revolution out. They had won.
Then came the "Divine Victory". The people were now the ones scouring and hiding. From that moment on the people power was no more.
Last week, and as the politicians headed to Doha, the people had one more chance to rise. To say to the politicians NO. Not in Doha, but here is where WE not YOU, where WE make the decisons. We. The people of Lebanon who drove out 25 years of occupation, We will make the decisions....
In a corner on the road to the airport a handfull of people gathered. The rest hesitated... Should we join them? Should we get out? Do we matter anymore? The handful of people unfurled their signs. Everyone held their breath. Will they defy the world again? Will they inspire the people power again to rise to drown the sounds of bullets and say YES WE CAN?
I read the signs. And in their words "AGREE OR DON'T COME BACK" I read a total and final relinquishing of all responsibility for the revolution by the people.
The politicians didn't let us down. You are mistaken my friends. They derived their strength from the people. The grew to become giants to their foes because the people carried them on their shoulders. They represented US. But the foes out-waited us, and when the people went shopping, The foes won the day.
There is a bigger regional story of course, but when history records what happened internally in Lebanon. This is the truth. Not anything else. This is what happened. Nothing else. The cry of the revolution died down and gave courage to the power of the gun....And we lost.
Posted by: Min Canada | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 09:57 PM
Min Canada,
You are right? But remember how many times our leaders asked their followers not to demonstrate.Even when Pierre Jumayel was hunted like a pet, his own father asked his followers not to react...the appeasing mentality of the leaders sucks but as you said people of Lebanon are not persistent and they got discoutraged easily...In addition the 8 March media tarnished the images of 14 March to an extent that people start repeating their sickening logic...and now all lebanese are congratulating themselves as if we won...it is the same story...another TAEF that stops the war for awhile...but it will come back an dthis time might be with mass destruction weapons...
Posted by: pragmatism works | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 10:12 PM
pragmatism works, when the people were leading, the leaders were following and we were invincable. What happened? Why were the people waiting for Amin to tell them what to do and what not to do? Whyd didn't they tell Amin to move aside and let the people decided how to face the terror of the assassins? Amin didn't fail his people. He was a father stricken and trying to prevent a massacre. That was not what should have happened. We should have seen another uprising...we didn't. Amin didn't let the people down. The people let their country down. The people let Pierre down.
Posted by: Min Canada | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 10:43 PM
Min Canada
I am not implying that Amin let people down...i am trying to emphasize this insistence from the leaders not to demonstrate...you need all the key middle leaders to mobilize the mass...
However, i tend to agree with you, if people are angry with inequity they should act and do sthg about it and not wait for some sort of miracle to happen...
on the other hand every time 14th of March demonstrate the other 8th March will copy it which is very rediculous especially when syrians and palestinins will join the crowd to look bulky...
let these people of 'our Lebanon' be drunk with their humiliated peace and concession...at the moment
Posted by: pragmatism works | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 10:58 PM
Now Lebanon stands on the actions of a legitimized Hezbollah. The next war they lead you into will be an official Lebanese war. Their terrorism abroad will be official Lebanese terrorism. You are all Hezbollah now, like it or not. Heaven help you all.
Posted by: doodad | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 11:26 PM
the 14th of March people on this site should be brave and admit that we are defeated and some sort of palnning should be done to get out of the pit...but keep saying here or in the media that Lebanon won and no ghaleb nor Maghloub is bull and even a treason against the martyrs(true ones)
Posted by: pragmatism works | Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 11:40 PM
Watch how big the monster grows now.
What was it that Berri called the tear-down of the tent city? "A gift from the opposition."
It's all in the little details. Next time they want something else, the withdrawal of the thugs will be another "gift".
It's not overly dramatic to draw a parallel with Berlin of 1932.
The foot is in the door and now they are coming in.
Freedom from the fascists doesn't come cheap.
Good luck Lebanon.
Posted by: ankhfnkhonsu | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 12:24 AM
the doomsday Doha will be ingrained in History as on eof teh main reason for great third regional or world war ...the axis of evil is stretching now from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq to Iran...CAN SOMEONE TELL ME WHAT THE ARABS ARE DOING BY APPEASING TEH BEAST(HIZB/IRAN)? ARE THEY CRAZY OR WHAT?
the Doha deal was based on dealing with serious issue a la yalla habibi mode ...
Sorry for winging too much .....but i am so irritated by the attitude of people in Lebanon who are congratulating each other....for what ya ayni?
Posted by: pragmatism works | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 12:44 AM
Smiling faces, the release of balloons, the dismantling of tents--all of this should be making me happy. Those fortunate enough to go back to Lebanon for the summer (and those who live there) can now reclaim their capital, reclaim their Buddha Bar, reclaim their Aishti.
But in the back of my mind, I'm still disturbed by the question, "Shouldn't we aim higher than just avoiding war ?"
Will we need to retreat to a luxurious Gulf state every time Hezbollah takes our country hostage, each time surrendering a little bit more to them than the time before ? What kind of precedent does this set ?
Posted by: k | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 12:47 AM
The only good thing about this precedent is we are now the Proteges of HIZb...now they can attack their real enemies, the pro-us arabs, Israel and teh west...let them suffer and repent for what we went through assassinations, inequity, looting, you name it...at least the lebanese people will be having a break ...
we live in a world of globalised security..what happens in tiny Lebanon will affect them all, all who turned their back on the truth
Posted by: pragmatism works | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 01:03 AM
Defeated?
I dont see no signs of defeat.There is " Compromise" and short term concessions that may look like defeat, but is far from it. See, none of us are really contemplating the long term, everybody wants total victory overnight.This is an impossibility. Lebanon has gone through massive assaults, from 06, to Naher el -Bared, to economic strangling, to assassinations, murdering of people and institutions, not to mention the psychological damage, all in the space of 3 years. What country has gone through these ordeals in such a short space of time and kept standing?
So, the Govt revoked its decisions, gave concessions in Dona, rewarded the aggressor, what they did is put the ball in the oppositions court, given them legislative power,taken them off the streets, and placed them in the quagmire of Lebanese politics. M14 work better as an opposition,in the end, this is how they formed, in opposing Syrian hegemony. Im not all that pessimistic about this, I think M14 works better as an opposition buying time and staying quiet until regional forces play it out, Syrian/Isreali treaties, International tribunal,Iran/US relations.
Let the people celebrate, they couldnt care less about tomorrow, all they wanted is a vent of frustration after living under black clouds for so long, neither M14 or M8 won, they both lost, but in doing so allowed the people to win , atleast for now, and in that the people won, then M14 can be happy for in the end, they represent the people,no?
Posted by: maverick | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 01:11 AM
Maverick,
i just don't get the idea that teh people won: first which people?
the HIZB will be soon taking Lebanon in a totally different directions...they already proved that it is their way or the highway..they will win both ways: money and arms pouring from Iran and money from the governmnet...
These so called dispossessed will be living off the back of the more productive sectors of teh lebanese people: are you ready to work and pay for their survival and so happy fertility...good on you
Posted by: pragmatism works | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 01:25 AM
I respectfully disagree with your opinion. I think you are as short sighted as M14. While it is true that Lebanon cannot withstand another civil war, the Doha agreement is total capitulation and surrender that will come as a hefty price to future generations.
What could they have done? Resist peacefully and show our true colors. The birth of a new Nation comes with a price and our martyrs such as Gebran and others have laid down the foundation that those M14 leaders are gradually crumbling into a million pieces. We will live to regret this day.
Posted by: EV | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 01:25 AM
as one blogger earlier have said: WE ARE ALL HIZBOLLAH NOW...DARE SAY NO
Posted by: pragmatism works | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 01:35 AM
Same names same commentators, all of you having discovered Lebanese politics Feb 14th 2005 or later. I like to refer to you as the "Arab Neocon blog set". I have enjoyed reading all your thoughts, inspired by the propagandarists of the State Dep, people like Mustafa attempting to shroud his Sunni Neofacism in slogans such as democracy, and the saddest thing is that all your hopes where pinned on a grouping of ethnic cleaners, warlords and corrupt businessmen. This is the reason why the Lebanese never really sided with the so called "March 14" or "Cedar Revolution".
Lebanon has never functioned when major groups or sects are marginalized, Doha was a readjustment in the right direction.
Posted by: Robert Bekhazi | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 01:57 AM
Robert,
You are a looser...this aounist approach of yours is hypocrit and does not build a modern country...we don't have a problem with the shiaa acquiring their piece of the pie we have a prpoblem with HIZB who is hijacking all of the shiaa for his own purpose through money and services and when it is time for them to pay back ...they will be fighting israel with their bodies, children and livelihoods...they will drag everyone else with them sadly...
ENJOY YOUR HIZBOSTAN ROBERT
Posted by: pragmatism works | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 02:03 AM
I always get a good chuckle when random guys come out of the woodwork to gloat, and throw around words like "neofascism" while supporting a militaristic armed group that operates very much like the brownshirts did in 1930s Germany by setting fire to opposing media outlets.
Brilliant, man, brilliant.
If you've really been reading the blog for any period of time, then you know very well that most of us have been pretty critical of March 14 over the past 2-3 years. So either you're just gloating and throwing words around without knowing what you speak of, or you're an idiot with no reading and comprehension abilities, or you're simply being disingenuous. Either way....hope you're having a good chuckle at the expense of your fellow Lebanese.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 02:08 AM
"WE ARE ALL HIZBOLLAH NOW...DARE SAY NO"...really?!? That means what exactly? Does it mean that because they are in the cabinet and wish at some point to declare war I will don army fatigues? Does it mean that I will vote for them when elections come around(im not even sure people actually vote in lebanon) or does it mean that we must collectively suffer as a nation and people the next time they go on an adventure! To all of the above i say...TRIPE!
hizbteezee is as hizbteeze does...self destruction for capone and his captains is assured. If they can not fight or have no one to fight they will begin to butt up against a brick wall! Time is now OUR ally! Let it grow as big as it wants...all balloons have their limits and eventually they go "pop!" I can assure you of one thing, M14 will not speed it up, in fact they have only shown the ability to fuck it up. This is especially true of the faggot PM who I will sacrifice my left testicle to confirm is a traitor of the highest order. Can anyone forget his weepy plea to get the world to stop israel liquidating hizballah by using a fictitious story about the children being "slaughtered" by the bad JOOOOS when everyone saw pictures showing the teezees putting civilians directly in the line of fire? Can anyone forget his blabbering after nahar la bared when, in spite of the fact that the army lost 200 young men in putting an end to a syrian engineered "coup" and after the fat sweaty fuck nasrallah declared red lines, the weasel PM still had the temerity to attribute the victory to the resistance! Can we forget his bold, agressive and manly decree that WE (ie speaking for all of us whether you agree or not) will be the last country to make peace with Israel! Who was he appeasing? Who was he trying to look "butch" for? To top it off he now refers to the brotherlies and sisterlies in syria reminding us we have no gripe with them...can I say WTF any louder.
I for one agree with jeha...the field has opened up and things may become very interesting in short order and that means the ball will begin to bounce back into OUR court. The question then becomes do we dribble, pass, or god forbid, travel and thereby foul out of this game permanently?
Don't be fooled, we have been cornholed big time by the Dodo Accord...it shall however be the last! Any future cornholing will be of our own doing...
Peace and love
Posted by: shunkleash | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 02:46 AM
shunkleash...iyou make me laugh so much ...i agree with you regarding teh MP he irritates me so much ..especially with his invocation of the brotherhood with syria...bye for now...time to go for me...i hope you keep writing...
Posted by: pragmatism works | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 02:58 AM
I am part of the few who are not rejoicing, on the contrary I am now considering taking my son and Leaving Lebanon.
I do not agree (sorry) with all those who say that their was no choice and that this capitulation was the only way to avoid civil war. We have managed so far to miss more than one opportunity to change our course, but leaders with no b.a.l.l.s and people who follow made sure that we missed every single one of them.
People of Lebanon erect giant poster of your president to be and rejoice, it will be shortly lived. Soon Suleiman himself will be reopening the doors of Lebanon to Syrian hegemony.
Posted by: Marillionlb | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 04:45 AM
Marillionb
when our people will learn the lessons of teh past..do you remember when they cheered and even wrote songs for LAHOUD...HERE THEY ARE COMMITTING TEH SAME MISTAKE...if i were 14th March i would strike a deal the crazy Aoun to make him the president if he gets rid of HIZB...but tthat would be a lot better than what we get now
Posted by: pragmatism works | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 05:05 AM
shunkleash,
Time for you to pick up the flag for us...Pick a constituency and run for MP. We'll all visit Lebanon and vote for you!! Let's start making a difference...
Posted by: danny | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 06:54 AM
AK, Ghassan, BV,
I wrote a rather euphoric comment yesterday as the immense relief that the country was experiencing got to me. And what a feeling it was. The sense of celebration that was bordering on a christmas spirit was infectious, believe me and I would have requested to post something to try to describe that mood if I had had the time to do so, just to share on of those moments so particular to this country of ours. As a little insight, my mobile phone inbox is jammed with messages saying "congratulations", such is the shared feeling of relief. When I walked through the remnants of "tent city", I was struck by two things: the sense of a scene of crime, and the absence of signs of vandalism. The contrast is shocking and a testament to the frightening military discipline at work.
But most of all, AK, it is your take on events that shines through. The military machine I mention is a war-ready one, and the Doha deal is indeed a lesser of two evils solution. The need, at all costs, to avoid war rather than delude ourselves is what ordinary Lebanese had been praying for. There is no doubt in my mind about who had the upper hand. La raison du plus fort est toujours la meilleure, as they say in French - or might is right if you will. You can negotiate so much when you have a gun pointed to your head.
But BV, I don't share your sense of gloom. The sweet timing of the Syria-Israel deal announcement that AK talked about yesterday is interesting to say the least. I have a deep-seated hunch that the M14 show of slight disappointment is in fact a travesty. HA's raison d'etre is being chipped off, and patience is the name of the game now. Any government now is just interim, and the elections are more likely to return the traditional leaderships to the fore. This, in itself, in a country that is feudal to the core, brings a surreal likelihood of stability, once "troublemakers" such as Aoun are gradually strangled.
I am not advocating this in any shape or form, and in this, I walk with you, Ghassan. Lebanon's "civil society" is growing in stature and presence, and the slow erosion of those leaderships has in fact begun. You're right in being both realistic and idealistic about it. And I for one believe that our work as reformists begins in earnest now, while the guns look rather embarrassed but wallow in another illusionary victory.
And, to further underline your point of avoiding war, AK. Few of the commentators here realise the extent of the danger lurking, that Jumblatt specifically has seen: forget Beirut - the Sunnis, tradesmen as they are, are not good at war. In the mountains, however, atrocities of the most terrifying kind have been committed. HA forgot the lesson learned by the Army and the LF during the civil war. You don't mess with the druze. And the mutilated bodies of HA fighters, returned to their own with their genitals severed and stuffed in their mouths (yes) could have been an invitation to 1975 redux. Something had to give, and quickly.
Hope springs eternal, folks. I wish those of you who are abroad could come just for this weekend in Beirut. As Nadia Tueni said: Beirut died a thousand times, and rose again another thousand. Only a sour mind wouldn't feel mildly optimistic, and to hell with the negative.
Posted by: naja | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 07:04 AM
Great post min canada on the fact that the people that contributed to the cedar revolution are the ones responsible for part of its failure.
When they killed Hariri the Syrians had taken the bet that the Lebanese people were too lazy to react, they got it wrong and faja2nahoum mou?? they understood right there that they had to leave and let the dust settle so they can come back...and this is what they did, their first tool was aoun who brought some of his supporters with him and more importantly brought confusion among the others especially the christians...aoun position brought confusion in people mind, people just couldn't believe that aoun was now a syrian puppet, well if aoun is with the opposition then the opposition must be something else than puppets working for the benefits of Syria and Iran...this is where the big lie was...
Then as min canada rightly pointed out, the civil society got confused and starting with their stupid neutrality campaigns... probably the most outvoiced of those was "khalass" orchestrated by kamel mhanna who is close to hezbollah...how can people be stupid...
And last week after all what happenned I saw people who had remained committed to beirut spring last 3 years going ahead with the DON'T COME BACK campaign... with people demonstarting on the way to the airport after they got their passes from the indibat who was watching and laughing its head...
Mabrouk!! we lost!! BIG TIME!!! the only thing that may save us is that uncle georges amy have done better than us and obtained for us things we failed to obtain by ourselves
Posted by: Fuziyad | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 10:01 AM
Naja,
You are a much needed voice of reason right now.Great work.
Posted by: maverick | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 11:12 AM
Shunkleash,
Welcome back. Not sure if this is your first post since you've rejoined the blog, as I'm having a hard time keeping up. But it is the first one I have seen from you in a long time.
Posted by: Mark | Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 01:03 PM