The real issue

Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad, who is in Doha engaging in dialogue with people he went to war against last week, has said that discussing the resistance weapons is "out of the question". He and his pal Hussein Hajj Hassan categorically denied that the issue is even on the Doha talks agenda, accusing the "ruling team" of "making up this issue to mislead domestic, Arab and international public opinion into thinking there is an issue on the discussion table called the resistance weapons or weapons in general".

Hizbullah has been selling its assault on Beirut and Mount Lebanon as an attempt to foil a "conspiracy similar to the July 2006 conspiracy", marketing the dead Hizbullah fighters who were butchered by the Druze as "martyrs who fell in a great war and who foiled great conspiracies… manufactured by Bush and his allies in the West and Israel ".

اعتبر رئيس المجلس السياسي في حزب الله سماحة السيد إبراهيم أمين السيد أن ما حصل في الآونة الأخيرة في لبنان أسقط مؤامرة شبيهة بمؤامرة حرب تموز، وقال في أسبوع الشهيد عباس مصطفى الهبش في حي السلم: "من جهة المؤامرة هناك تشابه مع حرب تموز لأن المعركة على المقاومة وسلاحها التي حصلت كانت مقررة لاحقاً، ويمكن أن يكونوا أخطأوا  في التقدير والحسابات وأخذوا قرارات لم يكونوا يعتقدون أن المقاومة ستأخذ هذا القرار بالدفاع عن سلاحها. لكن في النهاية، تعطلت هذه المؤامرة كما تعطلت مؤامرة حرب تموز لأن الإسرائيليين كانوا قد خططوا لشن حرب على المقاومة ليس في تموز وإنما بعد تموز، وفي هذا المعنى فإن الشهداء الذين سقطوا ، سقطوا في حرب كبرى وأسقطوا مؤامرات كبرى، وحموا بدمائهم هذه المقاومة العظيمة وشهداء تموز حموا دمائهم، حموا نصرهم كما حموا لبنان واللبنانيين. إن ما حصل سقط فيه من صَنع هذه المؤامرة وهو بوش ومن معه في العالم الغربي وإسرائيل"

I have no doubt in my mind that many Shias will buy this rubbish. In fact, in Hizbullah controlled mosques, funerals turned into anti-government festivals, attended by representatives of the militia, and of Michel Aoun's party, the FPM. 

Back in Doha, the Prince of Qatar, seeing that March 14 will not quit talking about those weapons, and realizing that even he does not fathom how they killing other Lebanese is foiling a great conspiracy, has vowed to come up with a "formula", says Future TV. One hopes the prince doesn't borrow from the Cairo agreement, which legitimized the PLO's weapons, and established security "islands" within the country where the army has no authority.

So far, there is no indication that this issue will be resolved in Doha, although March 14 seems determined to at least get guarantees that the weapons will not be used domestically, and that their fate will be discussed at a later point. Other issues seem to be taking precedence anyway, such as the electoral law and the makeup of the cabinet. We're told that agreement over these two matters will lead to the immediate election of Michel Suleiman. MP Michel Murr has even predicted that Suleiman will be elected by "Tuesday or Wednesday at the latest". 

It is not clear to me how a new cabinet, a new electoral law and a new president will make Hizbullah's weapons disappear. Hizbullah has pretty much emasculated Suleiman, and a cabinet where the "opposition" has increased power will never rule in favor of putting an end to Hizbullah's weapons. And has someone pondered how a militia can be allowed to not only field candidates, but also dictate how the country should be districted? Here's Geagea in an excerpt from his opening speech on the first day of the talks, as leaked by the media.

وتلاه جعجع الذي اعتبر ان القضية ليست قضية حكومة ولا قانون انتخاب ولا حتى رئاسة جمهورية بل ابعد واخطر من ذلك بكثير انها قضية وجود السلاح ونتائجه في الآونة الاخيرة وقال: "نريد ان نعرف ما هو مصير هذا السلاح قبل البحث في اي موضوع آخر، كما نريد ان نعرف حدود مسؤولية الدولة عن امن المواطن وعلاقة هذا السلاح بالدولة. لقد ادى ما حصل الى ما نخشى من حصوله على الدولة والجيش فما جرى كان خطيرا جدا ومن دون افق وتاليا فإن اي حل سياسي من دون تحديد افق للسلاح يبقى من دون جدوى".

Regardless, it seems the Prince of Qatar is finally getting some exercise. He has managed to bring the two sides together in one suite, and has expanded his talks to include Syria and Iran. The waiting game is on.

Finally, my parents are back in their home, for now.  Their immediate concern, as with all Lebanese, is security. The roads are open, but the future Hizbullah martyrs and their pals are still lurking in corners, waiting for the opportune moment to remind us, once again, that their weapons are the real issue.

Comments

[bint ras beyrouth]

Pretty soon, the Lebanese will "elect" their Presidents with 99.9% of the votes, just like in Syria & co. So far, no good news in what's been "leaking" or in the speechifying - not unexpected yet still very depressing.

[Ron Larson]

"established security "islands" within the country where the army has no authority"

Your joking. That has already been done. There are huge 'no-go' areas claimed by Hezbollah. There are "refugee camps" that are no-go areas.

[AK]

Ron,

Seriously? I did not know that. Thanks for sharing.

[Min Canada]

AK, I am glad to hear that your family is back home Inshalla in peace.

Folks I can't help pointing you to this article again. I spent some time reviewing it and it is "Bit3abbi elRaas". Very well researched and full of details that are worth keeping on mind. It was written before the latest events, but fully in line with them. Please read it. It is not short, but very well worth the time.

http://english.alarabonline.org/display.asp?fname=2008%5C05%5C05-09%5Czopinionz%5C965.htm&dismode=x&ts=09/05/2008%2010:55:54%20%C3%95

Just copy the whole URL and paste it. Let's discuss.

[ghassan karam]

As long as we are afraid or unable to address the problem at its roots we will move from one crises to another. I know that many of you have already read this but for those that have not visit Yalibnan for my take on some essential issues that need to be dealt with.

[ghassan karam]

Min Canada,
I have already spent a couple of hours reading and thinking about the Franklin Lamb article that you had suggested earlier today.
The way that the article frames the issue leads one to conclude that Lebanon is dispensable. Any person, especially if you have some utilitarian leanings as I do, will have to vote for the greater good. Logically if the problem is presented as which is more important the peace and prosperity of a region of say 100 million people or the sovereignty of a small state of 4.5 million that can never put its act together? one will have to chose the greater good for the greatest number and allow that sacrificing Lebanon under such circumstances is the right thing to do. But what if the choices are not the real world choices i.e. what if the question is not framed correctly on purpose.
IMHO that is exactly what is going on in this very lengthy article. Let us first look at the credentials of Mr. Lamb. He is a lawyer by profession who developed a sudden interest in the ME a few years ago. He is far from being an objective observer. Mr. Lamb belongs to an American group that is dedicated to a just solutiuon to the Palestinian issue. That is fine, I have written, lectured and attende many a conference in support of the Palestinians. In this case, however, Mr. Lamb appears to be willing to get to his goal using any means necessary. He will spin, and use selective information to make it appear that he is being objective when reality says that there are no contradictions between Lebanese sovereignty and Palestinian justice. I will even argue that Lebanese sovereignty is essential for the eventual development of the region. I am sorry but I reject the presentation of Franklin Lamb in its totality.

NB I think that it was this same Franklin Lamb who wrote in Counterpunch last year that the reason for the Nahr Al Bared battles was the intent of the US to build for Israel an air base in the North of Lebanon.

I am interested in your take and why is it that you thought that this was an informative read?

[ghassan karam]

Sorry Min Canada. You have struck out again. If your second suggestion was the column by Aijaz Zaka Sayed then there is absolutely nothing to discuss as far as this reader is concerned. Mr. Franklin Lamb OF of the first article could be accused of not being partial and of having an axe to grind, but Mr. Sayed comes across as a person who sees a Zionist conspiracy around every corner. Yes he is right the Jews will not rest until they rule the world :-) Give me a break..

[danny]

Franklin Lamb is extensively quoted by HA as a reliable source...Read today's Almanar site...

[Min Canada]

Ghassan,

First your article is excellent. I loved reading it. I will agree with you on Lamb's article, but it made a good read and there are some points there that are worth keeping in mind especially if Obama wins in November and the "talk" option is put on the table. We have to be prepared for the fact that if the west is not willing to get into a fight, and HA and Iran are, Iran and HA are bound to win on the ground. They will not give up a significant advantage on the ground for diplomatic promises and negotiated settlements that don't translate to reality over time. Even if they were to win a diplomatic consession by the US, there is no reason they would not negotiate a controling role in Lebanon as an extra!

As a counter to Lamb's article and a much more detailed study and more indepth, is the other article I pointed to by Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya. That one would seem to support my earlier belief that Israel and the US are preparing a war in the very near future. I have to say Mahdi's research and his observation are my beliefs as well and the kind of stuff I have been hearing ... yes from my God D*&^n sources LOL.... I had just given up on them in the past few days based on my emotional reaction to the events.

What I kept forgetting is that HA was forcing the timing as they did in 2006 and no one was going to fall for that again. I have to restore my faith that everyone knows what we know. And that is that if HA is allowed to cemment itself in Lebanon, it will contribute to the distruction of Israel. (I wouldn't mind frankly seeing Israel go, but I would suggest that if it does, we do too).

I am scouring the internet looking for information about the missile defence system in Israel. My strong belief, as I have suggested several times before, is that as soon as that is in place, the war is on.

Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya talks about 11,000 rockets falling on Israel from Iran in a matter of minutes. That is why the Israelis will not budge without the shield. The present shield will take on the 500-1000 possible salvo from Lebanon and Syria, but 11,000?! Not yet. Let's hope they get that soon. We need a reshuffling of the cards. This time though, can I suggest that we don't leave a wounded animal alive? They are more dangerous.

[Min Canada]

No Ghassan not Aijaz Zaka Sayed. I haven't read that one. I was referring to the article by Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya who is "a writer and geopolitical analyst based in Ottawa who specializes on the Middle East. He is currently Research Associate at the Centre for Research on Globalization".

[Min Canada]

I just glanced at Aijaz Zaka Syed's article. Ghassan Habibi, I am a bit more intelligent than that although it may seem otherwise from time to time. Read the other article Bi3abbi elraas I promise you. :)

[Min Canada]

Ghassan I have to take issue with your article. YOu talk about Gore ending is movie with simplistic remedies, but let's look at your list of "must dos"

1- We can show the courage to keep Hezbollah out of the cabinet until they can win a majority in the Chamber of deputies;

1a- At best we can make them accept 10 seats instead of 11 in a cabinet. How will you forma new cabinet with them out? Not realistic at all.

2- Enforce UNSC 1559 if for no other reason but the fact that a viable democratic state cannot exist without exercising a monopoly over violence;

2a- How? With what army do you inforce that? As I said before, if Israel and the US are thinking twice about that, we are going to do it? How???

3- Restoration of all state institutions and reforming the laws that govern them to make sure that no one person is ever again to be allowed to take a nation hostage by shutting the doors of its Chamber of Deputies;

3a- Maybe. It would be nice to bring a law to the chamber to vote on along this line.

4- Elect and not nominate a president without having to resort to unconstitutional means, i.e. Rescind the nomination of General Suleiman on the grounds that it is unconstitutional. One should not be expected to uphold the law by breaking it;

4a- Too late for that. Come on Ghassan. Who is going to do that? Are we back to the 50+1 idea?

5- The constitutional law and tradition of having the president hold consultations before he asks one person to form a cabinet is sacred and must be preserved;

5a- Yes but not this time. The facts on the ground dectate otherwise.

6- The clause in the Taif agreement dealing with the elimination of sectarianism must be implemented immediately;

6a- Min timmak la bab el sama. Shall we start in the Dahyeh? How about a non-Maronite president as a start? Who will be the first to give up their piece of the pie for al-3ilmaniyya? Napol3awn professed it until the presidential election came and then it was the "Christian" President that was the sacred cow! This is a tough one to crack Ghassan.

7- Every person who has taken part in the illegal activities as of May 8 2008 must be apprehended and tried in a court of law; and

7a- Eh na3am. Wselna.

8- A new electoral system that will decrease the power of the traditional "zoamah" must be implemented.

8a- Ummmm how is that?

In short Ghassan I don't disagree with ANY of your 8 wishes, but as to calling them a solution? Ballahi Keef do you want these to be implemented? Wluk khat talifon we couldn't close, you want to keep them out of the Gov and change the speaker? To quote Nazl El Surour: Bedack etghayyer? Eh ghayyerly hal Amees! At least Gore suggested something every viewer could do.

Sorry Ghassan, but here, among friends, we can be honest with each other.

[Andre]

From AK's commentary above:

"So far, there is no indication that this issue will be resolved in Doha, although March 14 seems determined to at least get guarantees that the weapons will not be used domestically, and that their fate will be discussed at a later point."

This particular paragraph should be bolded and highlighted in color as it is the main issue on the table and the one that may well derail the talks.
Hizb's unwillingness to tackle this thorny but critical issue is what stands between a temporary band aid solution and a long lasting issue to the current crisis. M14 and in particular the sunnis are not going to wait for the next conflict to errupt and be caught off guard without any means to fight back, and if guarantees and measures aren't provided to prevent the treachery that occured two weeks ago, all parties will seek to arm themselves to counter the Hizb's monopoly on "fire power" and that could very well mean another war that will plunge the country into chaos and destruction. It's obvious Nasrallah and co. have crossed a line that has unveiled bad intentions and deliberate attempts at forcing the issues via the gun rather than negotiate in good faith. Doha can turn out to be a crossroads between the beginning of a national understanding over the weapons issue or the rush to an arms race that will send the country staright to hell. God forbid.

[hh]

Min Canada, would they need that missile radar shield with all the battleships off their shores which are probably equipped with their own sophisticated radar shields? (I believe I heard on Fox News a weekend ago that they have already received the new missile shield from the US.)

[ghassan karam]

Min Canada,
You have "misunderstood" part of the message. Gore and the maonstream environmentalists do not have the courage to ask for a meaningful solution and that is precisely whay we will have none. As for my suggestions for Lebanon these are , in my view, the bare minimum if we are to establish a modern state. I agree with you that none of these will happen but that is not a reflection of their not being essential but our refusal to face reality. Conclusion: You want a democratic modern state, then you need a grass root revolution. Anything else is a waste of time and resources.

As for Mahsi Darius Nazemroaya, I hope that you are refering to the article "Beating the Drums of a Broader Middle East War". The link did not work and so I had to Google his name. I do not want to monopolize B2B < I have posted enough for today but very briefly : It is a well written essay but it relies on relatively few sources. I have the impression that Mr. Nazemroaya is essentially opposed to the state of Israel and the US foreign policy. That is fine in itself but he did not even deal with the other side.
I disagree that war between Israel and Iran is inevitable. Israel will wage a war on Iran if that is not a do or die scenario. A war with Syria is a different issue but even that will not happen in my opinion if the Israelis are not convinced that a war will resolve the Golan heights issue and get the Syrians to sign a peace agreement. As for the US attacking Syria, in my opinion that is extremly far fetched.
Would the Us attack Iran? Yes if they US and its allies are willing to absorb ab early counter punch from Iran.
The world does not need another nuclear power but the Nuclear Club must stop talking about a world of eqy=uality but some are more equal than others. The West plus Russia and China will have to find a formula that will treat Iran as a n equal i,e if it is acceptable for say France to enrich uranium then it should be acceptable for Iran also. Many generals from Nato have come out for a plan that will gradually eliminate nuclear weapons. That might ultimately be the best solution if it can be worked out.
Just one other point. The danger of an Iranian attack on Israel can be reduced substantially if the US would make it very clear to Iran, just as Senator Clinton did, that a unilateral attack on Israel will be very costly on Iran.
This leaves only HA. They are neither an existential threat nor can they be dismissed they are an Iranian thorn but in a real war the HA threat can be dealt with and checked.
Back to Lebanon. All of the above shows again that HA is guided by implementing Iranian objectives and have no need for a Lebanese state. Part of Lebanon has in reality become Iran on the Med.

[ghassan karam]

Min Canada,
You have "misunderstood" part of the message. Gore and the maonstream environmentalists do not have the courage to ask for a meaningful solution and that is precisely whay we will have none. As for my suggestions for Lebanon these are , in my view, the bare minimum if we are to establish a modern state. I agree with you that none of these will happen but that is not a reflection of their not being essential but our refusal to face reality. Conclusion: You want a democratic modern state, then you need a grass root revolution. Anything else is a waste of time and resources.

As for Mahsi Darius Nazemroaya, I hope that you are refering to the article "Beating the Drums of a Broader Middle East War". The link did not work and so I had to Google his name. I do not want to monopolize B2B < I have posted enough for today but very briefly : It is a well written essay but it relies on relatively few sources. I have the impression that Mr. Nazemroaya is essentially opposed to the state of Israel and the US foreign policy. That is fine in itself but he did not even deal with the other side.
I disagree that war between Israel and Iran is inevitable. Israel will wage a war on Iran if that is not a do or die scenario. A war with Syria is a different issue but even that will not happen in my opinion if the Israelis are not convinced that a war will resolve the Golan heights issue and get the Syrians to sign a peace agreement. As for the US attacking Syria, in my opinion that is extremly far fetched.
Would the Us attack Iran? Yes if they US and its allies are willing to absorb ab early counter punch from Iran.
The world does not need another nuclear power but the Nuclear Club must stop talking about a world of eqy=uality but some are more equal than others. The West plus Russia and China will have to find a formula that will treat Iran as a n equal i,e if it is acceptable for say France to enrich uranium then it should be acceptable for Iran also. Many generals from Nato have come out for a plan that will gradually eliminate nuclear weapons. That might ultimately be the best solution if it can be worked out.
Just one other point. The danger of an Iranian attack on Israel can be reduced substantially if the US would make it very clear to Iran, just as Senator Clinton did, that a unilateral attack on Israel will be very costly on Iran.
This leaves only HA. They are neither an existential threat nor can they be dismissed they are an Iranian thorn but in a real war the HA threat can be dealt with and checked.
Back to Lebanon. All of the above shows again that HA is guided by implementing Iranian objectives and have no need for a Lebanese state. Part of Lebanon has in reality become Iran on the Med.

[pragmatism works]

Only a conspiracy between the arabs and Israel will be able to kick iran out of Lebaon.Otherwise forget about Lebaon and let Iran invade the whole arab umma...what do you think?

[Min Canada]

HH the missle shields on the ships (Phalanx) are self shields. They are made of simple radar controlled rapid fire guns that intercept incoming misslies on the ships. Their scope is limited. What is being developed is a true shield that will cover Israeli territory and blast rockets in the air way before they hit. These are much more sophisticated and wider in coverage.

I have been looking at the news daily, but I don't know of any *Deliverd* systems yet. There are promises of delivery as well as a promise to put Israel under the strategic defense sheild being built in Europe by NATO. That is years away and will not be in time for Israel to remain viable as a state.

Many systems are under development now. But the Israelis are deliberatly using misinformation about them now. We have no idea where they are in the development phase. They could be almost ready or years away.

[Min Canada]

Last post for a while Sorry AK for being so active.

Ghassan yes I was talking about: Beating the Drums of a Broader Middle East War. I think that Israel and the US are very aware that the existance of the state of Israel is under threat more today than ever before. That is why the US is trying to finish with the 2 state solution as fast as possible and close the door on the Iranian option. If the US and Israel do not confront Iran, they will have made a deadly error. Bush alluded to the mistakes made with Hitler in his speech in Jerusalem. He couldn't be more right. The biggest mistake they will make today is to try a strategy of containment. There is no containing the Iranian threat. It is on a quest that is bigger than Israel. Israel is simply a trophy to be plucked along the way to superpower status. Cut them now, or face them later when they are much stronger. We (Lebanon) are an insignificant issue along the way.

[Bad Vilbel]

Having read today's Naharnet headlines, and the excellent piece by AK here, I must repeat, yet again (at the risk of sounding tiresome) that unless HA's weapons are discussed FIRST AND FOREMOST, the rest is ENTIRELY MOOT and is an exercise in academic masturbation (or masturbatory academics, take your pick).

What I'm reading, and what AK is highlighting here is that these idiots in Doha are now negotiating about the very things they could have been discussing for the past 18 months: A new electoral law, the makeup of the cabinet, and the presidency.
HA is making it very clear that their weapons are not open to debate (Asshat in charge Raad pretty much spelled it out for everyone). This means that the past 18 months, and more importantly, last week's events, have changed absolutely NOTHING. HA gets to have its way yet again. They've agreed to table the weapons discussion till after the president has been "elected" and a new cabinet (in which they have veto power) is in place. In other words, forget about talking about the weapons.
If March 14 falls for this "dialogue" they'll have once again failed the people of Lebanon and those who died (in vain) last week.

[pragmatism works]

Bad Vilbel

What do you think about Siniora's statement that if USA would like to help let her free MAzareh Shibaa...?

[bad vilbel]

More of the same claptrap. It means absolutely nothing.

[Solomon2]

Amazing how some keep trying to shift the discussion from what Lebanese can do to help their own country to invoking the U.S. or Israel as some sort of deus ex machina that will take the fight "over your heads" and do all the work and pay all the price instead! Whatever happened to the "Lebanese solution" Siniora begged for and Israel and the West accepted in 2006?

"This leaves only HA. They are neither an existential threat nor can they be dismissed -"

I am not the person who maintains that HA was "created by the Iranian Mullahs for the sole purpose of establishing on the ground the conditions that will favour the return of the lost Imam" - i.e., general and wide-spread death and destruction. If Hezbollah isn't an existential threat to Israel, it is only a matter of time. HA has already demonstrated it is an existential threat to Lebanon - not just by the past fortnight's events but in 2006, when it successfully employed civilians as cover for its rocket launchers attacking Israel.

The U.N. is there to help Lebanon get rid of HA's weapons, but there seems to be this very big frog in the throat of the M14 government. Why? Do they think time is on their side?

[pragmatism works]

I think the Hizb spokesman made a very good point saying that 14 March are asking for too much being defeated by Hizb when they reveresed their decisions...As you and others on this site mentionned the 14 March governmnet has disappointed us in many ways and i wonder whether someone weak like siniora or so classy like hariri are good for making tough and pragmtic decisions in such a dangerous issue...people cannot take it anymore.They are making us loose hope in such a goose rule

[ghassan karam]

Solomon2,
For crying out loud, do not take a sentence out of context. Had you read the article that I was responding or even the earlier part of the post then you would have known that I was responding to what the author expected Israel to go vis a vis Syria, Iran and HA. So please spare me your sanctimonious attitude. Out of all people who have never ever wanted anyone to do our work for us and who has been insisting for years that the Lebanese problem cannot and will not be resolved unless HA is prevented from participating in the cabinet ...you think that I want Israel to solve our problems of that I am suggesting that HA is an essential part of our body politic? What were you thinking. Don't just shoot off the hip.

[Andre]

From naharnet:

"Qatar has suggested that the pro- and anti-government leaders meeting in Doha postpone a decision over the controversial electoral law and move directly to the election of army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman as president.

It also proposed the formation of a unity government of 30 ministers, with 13 from the parliamentary majority, 10 from the opposition and seven to be chosen by the elected president."

Isn't this proposal the same crap that has been proposed over and over again in the last year to no avail and which has resulted in 19 failed attempts to elect Suleiman? I mean if the qatari emir is deluding himself into believing that this crap will stand, he is in for a major disappointment. The opposition wants to have veto rights on major decisions or they will resort to their version of "civil disobedience" as we have witnessed (which is anything but). The opposition knows it now has the upper hand and is going to want to take advantsge. M14 needs to take a firm stand and argue that Hizb weapons is a sort of blackmail that can't remain unchecked and must be addressed first and foremost...postponing the issue will only exarcebate tensions and open the way for another disaster...it's a vicious circle that M14 find themselves in. The most we can hope for from this conference is a lame compromise that will only take us back to the status quo...we might as well just use the lebanese saying that goes "we came and we left just the same!"

[Vox P.]

Hezbollah’s tactic in Doha: what is ours is ours, what is yours is negotiable.

I don’t even know why our pseudo-leaders bothered going there in the first place. Maybe it makes them feel relevant.

[danny]

Vox. P.

they went to prove what you said about HA to the Arabs...If anyone thinks that HA can negotiate about their weapons...they are living in another time dimension! Iran decides what to do with the HA weapons!

[Min Canada]

So M14 is willing to give them 11 Members in the new Gov.???? What the hell!!! That in exchange for leaving the Beirut Kada' as it is and not messing with it. This is crazy. Who taught these people to negotiate anyway? How did they start down the line of changing the Kada' Who accepted to discuss it? And what the hell is this consession with the 11 members? Al Thilth al Mu3attil. Isn't this why this whole crisis got started first? Did they also agree to give half of Birri's powers to the Druze? Oh, no of course. As Vox said: What's mine is mine, what's yours we share.

[Bad Vilbel]

"Hezbollah’s tactic in Doha: what is ours is ours, what is yours is negotiable."

BINGO!

As i said, it's all MOOT.

[Ace]

I find it amusing that everyone conveniently forgets that Hezbollah was never IN the Council of Ministers until Syria was forced out of Lebanon -- and now, suddenly it is only their participation/non-participation that is important? Syria can no longer have total control over Government decisions and Hezbollah+Aoun must do it. That's the bottom line.

I've now read 5 articles just today (including the one suggested by MinCanada) that talk of the Israeli/US attack on Lebanon on May 8. I guess this is going to be how HA tries to re-write the history just as they did about the July war. Israel+USA "attacked" and HA only defended. It did not work so well in 2006. Will it work in 2008? These guys need a new playbook. The Hezbollah propaganda machine is up and running but they are using old material that has not been too terribly effective. Got to give them credit for sending guys out to post this stuff.

[Ace]

MinCanada .... about that missile defense shield you are so worried about - I hate to break it to you but the USA is not in the habit of telling the media about their defense capability and newest weapons and deterrents.

These things are not usually announced until they are already in use.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ace,

I'd say HA's propaganda machine has been plenty effective with their constituents (which are the people to whom it matters most).

1. The Shia community is still behind HA, more than over. And no Lebanese national solution is ever going to be possible as long as the Shia community does not disown HA.

2. The so-called "Arab street" still manages to fall hook, line and sinker for the "US/Israel project" conspiracy theories every time they're regurgitated.

So yeah, I'd say HA really doesn't need a new playbook when it comes to propaganda. Their old one has been plenty effective.

[Max Power]

Min Canada,

You saying that you don't mind Israel going is precisely why the ME and more importantly why Lebanon is ****** long term. Both Lebanese parties and especially HA intent is to rid of Israel. Be careful what you wish for, because Jews have the same tribal/fanatical mentality as the Arabs. Only Israel is capable of levelling it's neighbors in two weeks.

I'm not crazy about Israel's policies, however I know that Syria and Iran are bigger threat to the prosperity of Lebanon.

I was in Lebanon and travelled to other countries in the Arab World, while the Lebanese are trying to figure their asses from their heads as a collective entity. Benign Israel haters like the Gulf States are building futures and Lebanon's brightest will likely be there long term. Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and other countries known for lots of sand continue to build infrasturcture and an economy and take what was once Lebanon's.

Again, I don't hear a call from King Abdallah to cut down the Zionist enemy every 10 seconds or so. Sinoira parrots the same rheotoric as Asaad and Mahmoud and is expected to be taken seriously.

[Bad Vilbel]

Once again, I have to agree with Max Power here. The "moderate" arab states stopped paying lip service to "hating the zionists" a long time ago, and have been busy actually building their countries. Lebanon could stand to learn a lesson or two from places like Dubai. Lebanon should've been the next Dubai.

[Max Power]

Couldn't agree more regarding HA's playbook. There vision is also black and white, while M14 deals in every shade of grey.

Lebanon is the farm team for all of these Gulf States. They grab the talent and they escape to Lebanon to cool off and let loose both Expats and Gulf Natives. However, Syria and Jordan are starting to lure the Gulf second home money as well. The Arab world woke up and even the country bumpkins to the East of us are getting massive infrasturcture investments.

However, Lebanon wants to keep it real and still clings to some warped logic that only NASA and Nobel prize winners can attempt to comprehend.

Dubai and the rules of the UAE took what was Beirut's and ran with it. I give them credit for breaking the stereotype that Arabs aren't always are Tribalist and have a zionist bloodthirst. They are capable of better things if they can get past their own stupidity.

In the US and afar, the Lebanese have a repuatation has community leaders, business minds as well as intelligance par excellance. Maybe the solution is to get Lebanese expats and people of Lebanese decent to set up a 5 year transitional government to get Lebanon back on it's feet. Imagine a panel of the following people:

Ralph Nader
Donna Shalala
John Mack (former CEO of Morgan Stanley)
Spencer Abraham
Paul Orfalea (founder of Kinkos)
Carlos Ghosn

And countless other Lebanese from other nations and expertise who aren't tainted by other side to serve Lebanon and to see it on it's way.

[Ace]

>

BV ,,,, I'm not talking about the Shiite street - they believe exactly what they are told. Think ahead just a minute (because I can guarantee that Nasrallah has already done so) and you will realize that Hezbo has to have Christian MP's and Ministers via Aoun to implement his program. He simply can't do it without them. Right now .... those who "matter most" are the Christian voters and you can bet Nasrallah and Aoun both know this and are already "spinning" the events. It's easy to see that the 2009 elections are a real worry for them .... good reason for that.

[Max Power]

They know 2009 is a problem and they will want to change the rules prior to that election. They can't win under these rules considering the events that have transpired since the Harriri assasination. They know that in light of recents events, there is no way that non shia support is that strong.

[tg]

Hard to be the next Dubai when Israel dumps hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees on your door step.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ace,

None of that matters. I've said before, the ONLY "side" that can eventually bring an end to HA's monopoly over the Shia community is the Shia community itself.
And for HA to disarm, the abovementioned is a MUST. No internal or external force can disarm HA by force while the entire Shia community believes that to be an attack on their community and their interests.

So all this "Christian voters" claptrap is irrelevant here. HA does not need the Christian vote to do anything. Why? Because the only thing HA is interested in doing is OBSTRUCTING. And as they showed last week, they can do that all on their own, without any Christian help, with their weapons. Do not make the mistake of assuming that just because HA agree to some cabinet makeup, it means they have any intention of taking the debate inside cabinet, where the number of votes they have matters. That's all well and good for matters like raising the price of gas, or whatever, but when it comes to their weapons, they will continue to act unilaterally, outside the cabinet in question, and won't ask permission from anyone (no matter if they have 10 votes in cabinet or 1 vote in cabinet).

Cappice?

[Bad Vilbel]

tg,

Don't be an idiot. Israel has not dumped refugee on our doorstep since 1948. That's 60 years during which we could've integrated them into something productive if we had our heads outside our asses.

You think Dubai doesn't have foreign workers? You think Dubai did it without any interference? Dubai is teaming with "refugees" (economical, not military, but the result is teh same) from Lebanon, from India, from Bangladesh. Dubai made the most of it by turning that to its advantage.

Lebanon could've done wonders even with refugees, had it been focused on leveraging the talent of both its own, and of the Palestinian refugees. Lebanon could've been what Dubai is today. We had a head start, in fact, compared to Dubai, if you look at the 1940s-60s. But we threw it all away, because of our sectarian mentality. Instead of thinking in terms of what we could do with all of Lebanese, instead, we had the maronites getting scared of those pal. refugees, we got the sunnis hoping to leverage those refugees to advance their own sect, and the shia who figured they'd might as well try to advance Khomeini's "Wilayat Al Faqih" while the other 2 sects were busy fighting it out.

They're all to blame. But let's stop making excuses for not being the next Dubai. The only reason we're not the next Dubai is because we're idiots without heads up our asses, like Max Power said.

Stop blaming others.

[Max Power]

What does having camps in a nation have to do with creating an infrasturcture or economy? The two don't exactly corelate in any way.

Who welcomed said refugees? The Lebanese people. How where they thanked? Why didn't they let march back into Israel?

Here's a tidbit on said "Palestinian Refugees".

My family is originally from the South of Lebanon. Refugee Camps exist on plots of land owned by various sects of CHRISTIAN Churches helping out their Arab, mostly Moslem Bretheren. Granted there were anywhere between 10-15% of the pop. that was mostly Rom.

The fact is you can't have it both ways. No relationship with Israel and bitch and moan about refugees. If they had some type of communications other than people of all sects saying they are our only enemy, than you would have a valid point and or a legitimate one.

Israel and the US once offered countless Billions to keep them and Lahoud flat out said no and said to the effect that they belong to Israel. Meanwhile, they live in Lebanon.

The Nahr el Bared issue stands out in my mind very clearly as I lost a family friend fighting guys hiding out in camps. Palestinians in Lebanon are another quandry to begin with. We can talk about the long history of their prescense post 1948, but it really doesn't bode well in the context of the current rowe.

[Max Power]

To add, a perfect comparison to the Palestinians was the arrival of the Armenians. No sect has provided a vision of what to do with them.

They should of been integrated like the Kurds and others. They are left in camps for some type of delusional "leverage" the Lebanese collective society thinks it has. I love the concern people have for the Palestinians and when push comes to shove, everyone looks the other way. I have yet to see a vision for them in Lebanon and in the region.

[Bad Vilbel]

Max,

None of these would have been issues if we didn't have that stupid sectarian system that we still cling to for dear life.

If Lebanon was a secular republic, let's say, comparable to the US (in its diversity), and it didn't matter if you were a Maronite, a Shia or a Sunni, then it wouldn't have mattered that 500,000 Palestinian refugees or however many Armenians came along. They'd just integrate into the fabric of a productive society, just like millions do in the US every year.

The root of the problem is NOT the arrival of Palestinian refugees, which is what some would have you believe. The root of the problem predates that 1948 crisis and those that follows. The root of the problem is the sectarian system. The very basic premise of a true democratic system is the equality of all citizens in terms of rights and representation. The very moment you make one sect (or group of any sort) "special" or different from the rest, you invite every other group to start thinking and acting in its own interests instead of towards the greater good. The moment it was decided that "Maronites shall have X" and "Sunnis shall have Y" and "Shia shall have Z" is teh moment it all went to hell. It was an inevitable consequence that both Armenians and Palestinians would be seen as elements in that sectarian equation.

Adn with all these sects busy fighting out for power, no one was busy building a "Dubai" in Lebanon. It's that simple.

Had Lebanon been a true egalitarian republic in 1948, when the refugees landed here, they'd have just been integrated and put to work towards the building of the "Dubai" in question. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Max Power]

Interesting read, those who want to know what Bush wanted done, here you go:
from debka.com
Sunday night, May 11, the Israeli army was poised to strike Hizballah. The Shiite militia was winding up its takeover of West Beirut and battling pro-government forces in the North. When he opened the regular cabinet meeting Sunday, May 11, prime minister Ehud Olmert had already received the go-ahead from Washington for a military strike to halt the Hizballah advance. The message said that President George W. Bush would not call off his visit to Israel to attend its 60th anniversary celebrations and would arrive as planned Wednesday, May 14 - even if the Israeli army was still fighting in Lebanon and Hizballah struck back against Tel Aviv and Ben-Gurion airport.

American intelligence estimated that Hizballah was capable of retaliating against northern Israel at the rate of 600 missiles a day.

Olmert, defense minister Ehud Barak and foreign minister Tzipi Lvini, the only ministers in the picture, decided not to intervene in Lebanon’s civil conflict. Iran’s surrogate army consequently waltzed unchecked to its second victory in two years over the United States and Israel.

DEBKAfile’s US and military sources disclose the arguments Washington marshaled to persuade Israel to go ahead: Hizballah, after its electronic trackers had learned from the Israel army’s communication and telephone networks that not a single troop or tank was on the move, took the calculated risk of transferring more than 5,000 armed men from the South to secure the capture of West Beirut.

This presented a rare moment to take Hizballah by surprise, Washington maintained. The plan outlined in Washington was for the Israeli Air force to bombard Hizballah’s positions in the South, the West and southern Beirut. This would give the pro-government Christian, Sunni and Druze forces the opening for a counter-attack. Israeli tanks would simultaneously drive into the South and head towards Beirut in two columns.

1. The western column would take the Tyre-Sidon-Damour-Beirut coastal highway.

2. The eastern column would press north through Nabatiya, Jezzine, Ain Zchalta and Alei.

Sunday night, Olmert called Lebanese prime minister Fouad Siniora and his allies, the Sunni majority leader Saad Hariri, head of the mainline Druze party Walid Jumblatt and Christian Phalanges chief Samir Geagea and informed them there would be no Israeli strike against Hizballah. Jerusalem would not come to their aid.

According to American sources, the pro-Western front in Beirut collapsed then and there, leaving Hizballah a free path to victory. The recriminations from Washington sharpened day by day and peaked with President Bush’s arrival in Israel.

Our sources report that, behind the protestations of undying American friendship and camaraderie shown in public by the US president, prime minister and Shimon Peres, Bush and his senior aides bitterly reprimanded Israel for its passivity in taking up the military challenge and crushing an avowed enemy in Lebanon.

While the president was busy with ceremonies and speeches, secretary of state Condoleezza Rice and national security adviser Stephen Hadley took Israeli officials to task. Hadley in particular bluntly blamed Israel for the downfall of the pro-Western government bloc in Beirut and its surrender to the pro-Iranian, Pro-Syrian Hizballah. If Israeli forces had struck Hizballah gunmen wile on the move, he said, Hassan Nasrallah would not have seized Beirut and brought the pro-government militias to their knees.

One US official said straight out to Olmert and Barak: For two years, you didn’t raise a finger when Hizballah took delivery of quantities of weapons, including missiles, from Iran and Syria. You did not interfere with Hizballah’s military buildup in southern Lebanon then or its capture of Beirut now.

IDF generals who were present at these conversations reported they have never seen American officials so angry or outspoken. Israel’s original blunder, they said, was its intelligence misreading of Hizballah’s first belligerent moves on May 4. At that point, Israel’s government military heads decided not to interfere, after judging those moves to be unthreatening.

The Americans similarly criticizes Israel for letting Hamas get away with its daily rocket and missile attacks on Israel civilians year after year. A blow to Hizballah would have deterred Hamas from exercising blackmail tactics for a ceasefire. In Sharm el-Sheikh Sunday, May 18, President Bush called on Middle East countries to confront Hamas and isolate terror-sponsors Iran and Syria.

[Bad Vilbel]

Israel made the right call on this one. Had they intervened, I'm afraid that it would've:
1. Confirmed the conspiracy theories that M14 was working with Israel.
2. Given HA all the legitimacy it needed as a Resistance movement.
3. Made it impossible for the Arabs to intervene in any meaningful way.

Believe me, it's better that it played out the way it did.

[ghassan karam]

Three various issues in one post:-)

(1) Noyhing justifies treating any refugees as second class citizens. Instead of repeating my argument on this issue let me refer those interested to an article that I have on Yalibnan.com of February 4, 2008; Palestinians in Lebanon plagued by doublethink,

(2) I have been trying for almost two weeks to find anyone, either in Lebanon or outside of Lebanon to explain the total absence of the ISF during the latest uprising.

(3) This is slightly off topic but not totally. I am not interested in purely personal points of view on this question: Apostasy is punishable by death in Saudi Arabia and other countries. In most countries, even the more liberal ones Apostasy is a very serious offense. Would this place Obama, should he become the president, in danger of being hunted down by Islamists? Could he visit Saudi Arabia? etc...

[tg]

A few points

First, the Arabs ruling Dubai are hardly sectarian. They have foreign TEMPORARY workers from the slums of Pakistan/India and they are treated like garbage. Dubai hasn't integrated and will not integrate these people. They will/are deported if this segment of the population asks for a bigger share of the pire.

Two, integrating Palestinians into Lebanon is the most contentious issue in the country. Why should Christian Lebanese allow the delicate sect balance be altered dramatically?

You think the Jews in Israel don't think about the balance between Jews and Muslims in their country? The early founders of Israel were wise enough to know they had to reduce the muslim population if any viable jewish state was going to be created.

In short, what do you think would happen if a proportional amount of Palestinians were dumped onto Dubai or Israel?

[tg]

A few points

First, the Arabs ruling Dubai are hardly sectarian. They have foreign TEMPORARY workers from the slums of Pakistan/India and they are treated like garbage. Dubai hasn't integrated and will not integrate these people. They will/are deported if this segment of the population asks for a bigger share of the pire.

Two, integrating Palestinians into Lebanon is the most contentious issue in the country. Why should Christian Lebanese allow the delicate sect balance be altered dramatically?

You think the Jews in Israel don't think about the balance between Jews and Muslims in their country? The early founders of Israel were wise enough to know they had to reduce the muslim population if any viable jewish state was going to be created.

In short, what do you think would happen if a proportional amount of Palestinians were dumped onto Dubai or Israel?

[tg]

A few points

First, the arabs in Dubai are as sectarian as the Lebanese. Those foreign workers are all temporary and are routinely deported once their services are done. They are also treated like garbage. This is similar to how the lebanese treat palestinians, except Dubai has the luxury of sending these temporary workers home.

Second, why should Christian lebanse accept the integration of palestinians into their society that will greatly alter the sectarian balance in the country.

You think Jews in Israel think differently? The balance between Jews and Arabs in Israel is a major national security issue for them.

To think Lebanon could just absorb all the refugees that fled is naive. All these gulf nations you admire have gone out of there way to keep palestinians out.

Finally, what do you think will be the fate of Dubai or Israel if they had a proportional number of Palestinians enter their country?