Jumblatt knew what was going to happen

Fubar has reminded me of this old post from last year:

Jumblatt: Lebanese army will not intervene in case of coup

The Lebanese army would not intervene if the Hizbullah-led "opposition" invaded the government building to overthrow Fouad Siniora's cabinet, Walid Jumblatt told Aljazeera yesterday, quoting a letter he said he received from an army general. "This implies a coup d'etat and a great catastrophy," he said. Jumblatt added that he asked army commander Michel Suleiman not to assume neutrality if riots broke out following a "presidential vacuum".

Jumblatt warned of a coup by Hizbullah, which he said was close to storming the government Serail on January 23rd had it not been to intervention by Arab countries and even Iran, which was concerned that a civil war would hurt its interests in the south. He described Hassan Nasrallah as a tool for a greater project, who cannot detach himself from the Assad regime and from his financial and military interests with Iran.

The Druze leader said he didn't mind being accused of being part of the American project, as long as the objective is to protect Lebanon from the Assad regime and the "Persian hegemony".

Jumblatt said the settlement of the crisis over the presidency should take place in Bkirki, and not Ain El Tineh (Berri's residence), adding that Sfeir has to know how to pick according to the conditions of the Cedar Revolution. Jumblatt said, however, that it was really up to the parliament's majority to select a candidate. He added that he has been lobbying for American and international recognition of a March 14 president elected by a simple majority.

On Suleiman's candidacy, Jumblatt said he told the army commander that he was opposed to amending the constitution, and that if Suleiman wanted a political position, he has to take off the army uniform first and become "a deputy, minister and maybe later a president... but no to the military returning to power".

Jumblatt said he hopes Aoun returns to his former self after his meeting with Hariri in Paris. He added that the former general has become a prisoner of Hizbullah and Syria, and that the meeting between the two (Jumblatt and Aoun) was canceled because Aoun said he could not meet with those who insult his allies.

What happened between October 31, 2007 and now? And even if they had known, could they have done anything different? Did Suleiman give them false guarantees in return for their support?

The Lebanese army would not intervene if the Hizbullah-led "opposition" invaded the government building to overthrow Fouad Siniora's cabinet, Walid Jumblatt told Aljazeera yesterday, quoting a letter he said he received from an army general. "This implies a coup d'etat and a great catastrophy," he said. Jumblatt added that he asked army commander Michel Suleiman not to assume neutrality if riots broke out following a "presidential vacuum".

Jumblatt warned of a coup by Hizbullah, which he said was close to storming the government Serail on January 23rd had it not been to intervention by Arab countries and even Iran, which was concerned that a civil war would hurt its interests in the south. He described Hassan Nasrallah as a tool for a greater project, who cannot detach himself from the Assad regime and from his financial and military interests with Iran.

The Druze leader said he didn't mind being accused of being part of the American project, as long as the objective is to protect Lebanon from the Assad regime and the "Persian hegemony".

Jumblatt said the settlement of the crisis over the presidency should take place in Bkirki, and not Ain El Tineh (Berri's residence), adding that Sfeir has to know how to pick according to the conditions of the Cedar Revolution. Jumblatt said, however, that it was really up to the parliament's majority to select a candidate. He added that he has been lobbying for American and international recognition of a March 14 president elected by a simple majority.

On Suleiman's candidacy, Jumblatt said he told the army commander that he was opposed to amending the constitution, and that if Suleiman wanted a political position, he has to take off the army uniform first and become "a deputy, minister and maybe later a president... but no to the military returning to power".

Jumblatt said he hopes Aoun returns to his former self after his meeting with Hariri in Paris. He added that the former general has become a prisoner of Hizbullah and Syria, and that the meeting between the two (Jumblatt and Aoun) was canceled because Aoun said he could not meet with those who insult his allies.

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

Just because some smart guys had it figured out (Jumblatt was always a bit more astute than the others), doesn't mean M14 was prepared.

[Min Canada]

Radio broadcasting of the RLL is back online
http://www.rll.com.lb/

[Charlie]

BV,

That is precisely the point I have been trying to make.
It shocks the hell out of me when I hear people coming out and saying that it is better for
M14 not to fight these guys.

They have no excuse, M14 had 2 years to get ready for this day but all they did was call for huge rallies, have few concerts and go home.

[Jay]

Min Canada, thanks for the link.

[Min Canada]

Fight what? Iran Syria and HA? If this gives pause to Israel, the US and France, you think we can fight them? Get real! Don't write without thinking please. Who the hell in M14 could have builtan army like HA? In 2 years!!!!!!!!!

[Bad Vilbel]

I hear ya, Charlie, I hear ya. Some of us have seen this coming for 3 years now.

3 years during which we all knew the opposition would never go by "dialogue" and would never "come back into the fold", contrary to constant arguments to the contrary.

HA has always been a military force, and a bully who does not understand ANY OTHER WAY but the use of force.

[Charlie]

Min Canada,

I can tell, you are young and from the post 75 generation,
You have no idea what it takes to fight an Urban warfare.
The fact HA has you thinking you can't do anything, means they already won the day.

You don't need a huge army man. You keep thinking HA is a huge army, they are not.
They are an armed Militia, well organized and willing to fight that is it.

In 2 years M14 had amble time to organize a respectable fighting force to face off with the HA thugs in the streets.

[Doha]

A draft resolution by Arab League Ministers was tabled which asserted: "rejection of the use of armed violence to achieve political goals outside the framework of constitutional legitimacy, and the need for a withdrawal of all weapons from the streets."

The draft was supported by Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Guess what? Syria rejected this text. They didn't even send Muallem to Cairo; we're not worth it! Bloody!!!

[Min Canada]

Charlie,

All I can say to your post is: Ha hahahahahah. Hahahaha. Falling off my chair Hahahahahahahahaha.

OK get real.

[Charlie]

Min Canada,

Like I thought, one of the young ones who grew up under the watchful eyes of Hizeb and impressed by their firepower...:-)
I am real, but are you? not thinking so..

[danny]

This all reminds me of 1975. A fight here a fight there; hundreds of broken ceasefires, Arab League (what a joke), then loads of guns arriving...a few months later a massacre here and voila. I think the Druze, Sunnis and the Christians of March 14 have enough trained fighters for the long haul in case of a protracted civil war; but they do not think that irreversible moment has arrived yet. I'm afraid that day might be fast approaching as Iran makes a total effort to take over most of Lebanon...
I guess Hassan's revenge for Muggsy's killing was taking it out on a funeral procession...

We are fast slipping to a total disaster unless Iran is satisfied with the HA conquered autonomous areas. Forget about the "nation" of Lebanon. We soon will here about a renegotiated Taef demand by the HA. Using that as a guise to stay in Lebanon. Time's up for serious talk whether it is worth it...What should have been done in 70's should be done now. Break the fucking sliver of land apart...Either partition or a civil war...

[Charlie]

Danny,

Now I am hearing someone who actually has seen the 75 wars, like myself, and knows how it is going to play out. What you laid out is exactly what will happen and I don't even Iran is going to be able to put the Gennie back in the bottle, it is too late.

All of you young ones watch and learn.