Hizbullah's honeymoon will be short lived

Citing Saudi and international sources, LBC correspondent Raghida Dergham said that those enjoying themselves right now in Beirut had better think well and hard about the regional reactions. She mentioned possible unilateral actions by some states against those actors and their sponsors to end their attempt to take over Lebanon.

Things now seem to hinge on Saudi, Egyptian, US and French reactions to the events.

Dergham said that even Russia will not be able to oppose retaliatory actions to redress the situation in Lebanon.

In related news, it appears that the US is currently deliberating with security council members on response measures.

Is this what March 14 was banking on? Did Hizbullah walk into a trap? And does this explain why they seem to be in a hurry to create facts on the ground before they are forced to return to their holes?

We'll see.

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

As I've said before, I don't buy this for one second.
It'd be nice. But I can't imagine the US doing more than "strongly condemning". Ditto France.
Egypt/Saudi will likely dispatch Amr Moussa to see what kind of "compromise" he can salvage. Which will end up being back to square one (with HA having put M14 back in place).

[LebExile]

I do think there is more to this than M14 are giving away..

I even read in some german paper that Iran is offering to calm the situation in Lebanon in return for a nuclear program..

I dont know about you guys, but I doubt that the US is willing to let Iran have a nuclear program .... Lebanon be dammed!

[Charlie]

The next few days will reveal what is in the works.
As I mentioned before, this could all be part of a regional push to defang the Iranians from Iraq and Lebanon and I believe Afghanistan as well. But judging from the actions of this joke of a Lebanese Army so far I am not holding my breath. I will believe it when I see it.

[LebExile]

me too..

I hope for peace in the land of the cedars, and hopefully I can go there again in Summer!!

[Microraptor]

Ha... I was meant to go to Beirut on Thursday but my friends all pulled out.

Look guys, it'd be great if there was a "cunning plan" but there isn't. March 14th had their bluff called and got battered.

It's one thing to get guns galore from the UAE etc. but M14 don't have the trained or committed manpower to take on HA. And the bulk of the opposition fighters weren't even HA -- they were Amal and SSNP.

Sorry to piss on your parade, but you have been badly let down by a leadership that preens, postures and pouts -- but cannpt deliver when it matters.

[Min Canada]

Ok folks, let's be very clear about what just happened. The last time a similar thing took place in the area was when Iraq over-ran Kuwait.

Will a coolition be formed for this one or will they just let it stand. I am not sure really. Everyone is tight-lipped about everything.

If the world does not act and act as forecefully as they did with Saddam back in the 90s, then they deserve everything that this group of thugs will transport across the Arab world and beyond.

We need to act on the global scene as the Kuwaities did back then we should not be silent. We should force our Gov. to take action.

[LebExile]

how about starting Cedar Revolution II - this time - we want Iran and Syria out of the country...

anyone willing to take in some Hizz troublemakers???

[Cedar Revolution II & Gebran Sons]

Abu Kais, first, thanks for you, Jeha and others for making us feel proud to be Lebanese. Not as a blind nationalist pride, but as defenders of freedom and democracy via a a national entity called Lebanon.
Hezbollah has fallen into multiple traps that will soon be apparent. In addition to the international context you described, Hezbollah has attacked the press which freedom is sacred in Lebanon. Then it attacked the demoractic principles rooted in all Lebanese not subject to brainwash. These alone are self-destructive pills with delayed effect. There are many other poison pills that Hezbollah Iranian and Syrian handlers wit their primitive knowledge do not understand. Hezbollah glory will be short lived as well as all the garbage politicians supporting it, among them the idiots, supranos and puppets only inflated by Syrian support after the masses had vomited them at election time. Iran will certainly pay a heavier price as it has fallen into a bigger trap. More on that later...

[Mark McHenry]

The very second that the U.S. NeoCons under Bush drop a single bomb on the Shiite part of Beirut you can guarantee that Israel will experience a rocket attack launched by Hezbollah the likes of which Israel has never seen in their history.

[danny]

Technically guys what have March 14 given up to the "miltary heroes" of the divine party? They, the HA, already controlled Beirut. So we see a few well dressed SSNP "fighters" walking around...Does anyone really think that if March 14 wanted to fight back, that these SSNP morons could walk around? They don't live on Hamra; and if my memories of the 1975-1990 serve me right (although I was very young), These "fighters" could've very easily been picked off one by one!!!
So let's stop crying over this great HA takeover!!

Now we will have people like "micro..." gloat. How foolish and juvenile! HA is feeling ashamed so download everything on some obscure SSNP...

I believe that all the "decisions" of the government illicited the expected response from the HA. The coming days will give all of us plenty of "events" and changes to discuss. The March 14 leaders do no look one bit scared or concerned. We'll have plenty of lively venting! God help the poor people trapped.

As for the title; Wholeheartedly with you AK. I think the HA even lost the battle of Beirut in "conquering" it.

[JoseyWales]

Min Canada: We need to act on the global scene as the Kuwaities...

The Kuwaitis have/had money and brains. We have neither.

[Bad Vilbel]

Seriously? You're comparing this to Kuwait? this is nothing like Kuwait.
Not to mention that these are different times. The US is NOT going to embark on ANY military expedition. Trust me on that. I live in the US, I hear the news everyday. There is NO WAY IN HELL that is happening. PERIOD.

[Charlie]

Hey Mark,

If you have a beef to pick with Israel, go fricken do it on your own turf. Better yet, may be you can lobby Bashar to open a front for you in Syria so this way you guys can settle all the scores you want. Lebanon has enough bullshit to deal with without having you come out of left field telling us about some rocket being lobbed at Israel

[Vox]

Mark, don’t overestimate the M14 idiots. There is no grand plan to set up Hezbollah. We’re in this mess because for the last three years the bunch of wussies a.k.a. March 14 didn’t have a strategy.

[Lover]

I hate it how people can blaitantly lie and convince themselves that there is victor or loser. There is. Hezbollah has won, or at least is winning and very close to total victory.

This is how I see this. Every single demonstration of Hezbollah's or the oppostion has seen and average of 7 people die. In every single flippin one. Then look at it this way. When Amal (Hezbollah is more logistics than activist militants in this battle) intervened and shot back at them, and punished them by 1) overpowering them and 2) handing them over to the army, not a single opposition civilian has died - only like 4 have died, all of whom are armed Harriri militia members.

The way I see this is two-fold. Firstly, Hezbollah has grown sick and tired at the absence of law in Lebanon and the continued bullying and smear campaigns against it by the government. 2) it has decided, rightly so, that this government does not understand nor respond to the language of democracy (i.e. resignation of ministers, million/s-strong marches/demonstrations etc, media campaigns and so on). If the government had an iota of moral sense, it would have stopped denying there is anything wrong in the country and 'conduct day-to-day/bussiness as usual' attitude, but rather either resign if they can not solve the problems or resolve them seriously. That is the responsibility of a government. Hezbollah is today using their power on the pretext of Harriri's militias' aggression to force the government, through violence, to go back on it earlier decision. Nasrallah made it clear, no one can force Hezbollah to give up it's weapons or infrastructure and the government knew it - they just betted on a army v. Hezbollah scenario, hence the responsibility of initiating the dismantling of the Hezbollah telecommunications network was given to the army, who refused to obey the order - again, rightly so.

If anything, this is not Hezbollah's war against the state. Firstly, a war between a state and another faction has the army fighting alongside the state. In this case, the army has sided with Hezbollah (they are arresting harriri militants not hezbollah or amal ones). This is a militia-vs-militia struggle (and all this time you really thought Harriri, Jumblat and GaeGae had no weapons - HAH!). Secondly, there is an absence of authority both in the illegitimacy of the government and it's actions (the demand of dismantling Hezbollahs telecommunications network goes in direct contradiction to the 2005 governmental (current one) statement of a policy to protect Hezbollah arms, therefore loosing the mandate it was handed to by the people by contradicting its manifesto or platform). There is no government and thus no clear 'state' as of 1/12/2006.

"and all the SUNNI Arab world to come to the aid of their occupied brethren in Beirut"

HAH, not a safe bet. If all the arab world didn't squeak for 60 years in the case of it's 'sunni brethren', the palestinians, you really think they'd come anywhere near these 'brethrens' and in direct confrontation with Hezbollah? Come on, be serious.

Anyway, I do think a mini-civil war has erupted, but you have to admit, Hezbollah fights pretty professional and bloodless civil wars. Furthermore, you can not blame only Hezbollah of terror, and by terror i mean the fear that civilians feel in the area of conflict. There are two sides fighting this war and both are to be held responsible ofr any 'terror' they cause. But if anything, the opposition have the moral high-ground because of the army's support of its campaign.

[danny]

Romeo,

As usual you are full of shit. If poor people who are defending their homes against your divine resistance are criminals; well you win the title of the most dumbass sheep on earth.

As for HA winning...How please explain?As for the rest of your incoherent mumbo jumbo crap. Choke on it...It is losers like you who take delight in supressing of freedoms and killing of children...Yet, you sit in your loft in London and blow hot air...So politely BUZZZZZ OFF or rather go kill yourself instead of others.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

What Hariri militia..?
I wished there was a Hariri militia...
I didn't see any Hariri militia fighting today...
Did you?

[Bad Vilbel]

Looks like things are winding down, now that HA has made its point.

As I said in a previous comment, I think the main goal here was putting M14 back in its place, rather than a full takeover of the country.

HA is probably not interested in running a country.

They are interested in keeping their weapons and their "above the law" status. And as long as the government doesn't mess with those, it can go run the day to day affairs of the nation (whatever crap that may be).

M14 dared to try standing up to HA, on the airport issue, and was getting big ideas about actually enforcing its decisions, and HA could have none of that.

The question now is: What next?

My guess, back to the status quo and paralysis, with the added difference of what Walid Jumblatt hinted at 2 days ago: "coexistence with the Resistance". M14 now knows better what lines not to cross.

Once again, I have to wonder, if nothing was accomplished, why did M14 provoke a fight they weren't ready or willing to undertake.

To be continued...

[AK]

"Lover", go back to your middle school. I have banned you before, so you're not exactly welcome here.

[RebLeb]

Headline of the year: "Al Qaeda declares war on Hizbullah"
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=54916§ionid=351020203

[Avi]

Anyone who supports modernity and multiculturalism in Lebanon just took a blow from hardcore Islam. The unfotunate reality for those is that they have to choose between Israel + the US or
Iran + Syria. Secular Lebanon is not militarily strong enough to stand up to Islamic Lebanon so despite their reluctance their best choice will be the US + Israel.

[ADF]

BV, 2 options:
1) Enters a (new) feeble cabinet headed by an army general - you choose the flavour: the retired retarded or the (in)active snake.

2) M14 pseudo-returns to pseudo-negotiations. But in this case it would the same as the beaten "wife" that returns home after a spanking session to cookie for her "master" - and never to look him in the eyes again!

[ADF]

Sorry the rant AK,

Now Lebanon, Statement of Senator Barack:

"... It's time to engage in *diplomatic efforts* to help build a new *Lebanese consensus*..."
"...As we push for this *national consensus*..."

Oh boy, here we go *again*.

"...We must support the implementation of UN Security Council Resolutions..."

I'm sure every HA member is very worried now.

"democratically elected government of Prime Minister Siniora, **strengthen the Lebanese army***"

What ? more coffee to help them pass the time ? too much caffeine is bad for their health, the wise senator should know better.

"...and insist on the disarming of Hezbollah before it drags..."

Good point! How ? send them a white flower and a nice and tasty chocolat box, I'm sure they'll drop their weapons after that.

As JW would put it... a new delivery of "hot air" is coming in fast.

[Bad Vilbel]

I hate to say "told you so", yet again. But yes, ADF, that is exactly what is going to happen.
Here's my prediction:

-The Arab League will dispatch Amr Moussa to Beirut tomorrow for a "negotiated settlement to the crisis".
-A big breakthrough will be announced after a few days. It will consist of HA agreeing to withdraw its fighters, having made its point (don't tell us what to do!). There will be consensus on electing Suleiman (which is nothing new and is Syria's man anyway), and even though that is not a real concession by HA, it will be made to look like one, so that in return, M14 will agree to some weak government of national unity (as ADF stated above).

And we'll be back to where we were, with the added difference that M14 has been shown to be the paper tiger some of us knew they were all along. Talk of asserting the rule of law will subside.

Walid Jumblatt's "let's coexist with the Resistance, just tell us what lines we can't cross" statement of 2 days ago is very telling. Those of you who know that "Jumblatt watching" is a pretty good indicator of how the wind is blowing should have picked up on that by now.

[Andre]

I agree BV. There will be a settlement in favor of the opposition. Berri will get his so called "round table dialogue", and HA will get to keep its weapons and network for as long they wish, and never to be challenged again on these issues, I think that M14 got that now. This government is too shaken to recover from all of this, not even M14 can save it. This is a good time for HA and their cronies to bring back talk of a government of national accord, again heavily tilted towards the opposition. After all is said and done, there will be a huge laugh heard from dahieh all the way to Teheran via Damascus.

[james chon]

wow, i havent been here since 2006 and nothing has changed. fool still believes in us intervention in lebanon to save the world and that lebanon is a democracy and will defeat all evil neighbors. what a tool. How can you even believe anything you write anymore. Your track record is dismal at best.

[LBWend]

Anyone waiting on US intervention should know that the US Embassy has told Americans in Lebanon is they want to leave they should. How you may ask, the US Embassy says get a boat.........Lebanon is on its own...........Any guesses as to what will be said at 2PM??

[Lover]

HAH! Civilians protecting their houses? Where do you get your bullshit from? So all these abductions and killing were random folks cotching at their homes until they got attacked by Hezbollah? So I ask you, the offices belonging to future and co. that the army is taking over (after being handed down by Hezbollah) and all the arms, testaments, evidence of israeli weapons etc are all an illusion.

If you had any credibilit, poof! its gone now.

I really thought you might have had some kind of sense left in you, some kind of truth. But nothing.

[Zeke]

I'm far away in America and while I follow Mid East politics I'm obviously not as connected to the situtation as many commenting on this blog are. None the less I'm pretty sure about a few things.

No one in the USA views this as being at all like the invasion of Kuwait. That was clearly a state vs. state affair. One of the few post WW2 accomplishments of the UN is that state borders are generally protected. That doesn't mean all subversion has been stopped, there has and always will be plenty of that.

But it does mean you can NOT take your western style army, complete with multiple tank divisions, and drive it across the border to the neighboring capital. And then rape and loot to your hearts content. That's the picture we saw on our TV in Kuwait.

It is not the picture we are seeing in Lebanon. Despite the fact that many Americans are aware of Syria and Iran pulling the strings the method used, local militias with AK-47s, is one that is seen all over the Middle East. Until very recently the USA has not even tried too hard to disarm Al Sadr in Iraq. Even less so will anyone try to do any thing abou Hizballah in Lebanon.

Bush is working on his legacy, which is a stable Iraq, and has no ability to stage an intervention. Lebanon has been viewed as a basket case of warring factions, and reported on as such by the US press for a generation. Given all this, along with the ongoing War in Iraq and Afghanistan, the domestic concerns now like the high price of oil, and the focus on the election USA, coming to anyone's rescue just isn't going to happen.

There is no outrage in the USA over this. There is virtually no coverage in the USA over this. We have become immune to worrying about middle eastern countries militia vs. militia conflicts.

As long as the Hizballah fighters only screw up Lebanon I think the entire world response will be "condemnation" and perhaps a UN resolution or two. But no intervention.

If Hizballah decides to go at Israel with a massive rocket attack then there will be an Israeli response, and the US may be quietly supporting that behind the scene.

I'm assuming at some point the puppet master sends all his puppets against Israel at the same time. Hizballah in the north and Hamas in the South, perhaps even some from Iraq. Should that happen we will have the real "Mother of All Wars" that Saddam promised buy could not deliver. The only question then is will either Israel or the USA intervene directly against Syria and Iran, or limit the punishment to the proxies. I suspect the former, but if Mr. Obama is elected all bets are off.

If the Iranians want to throw this big punch they sure as hell better do it before John McCain becomes President, as he is likely to make Bush look like a pacifist in the event of something like this.

Guys, there are people who if Hizbolla tomorrow visits Israel and addresses the Keneset and lie flowers on the 'Unknown Soldier' site in Jeruslam who will still find a way to justify it and explain it. Those people know themselves well.

It is none of Hizbolla business to launch a war on the government however flawed that government in its opinion is. Instead this illegal terrorist religious organisation would have done better electing a new president for the republic and gotten rid of the Saniora government which it claims it hates so much. The truth of the matter is that Hizbolla never had it so good before and he would die to see the Saniora government going. Under Syrian tutelage, Hizbo would have had to take their politics, interests and relationships to other Lebanese into consideration. Now they there is nobody to report to- no president, no parliament, and no government which he recognises.