Hizbullah's existential dilemma and how Israel is providing it with a reprieve

I have touched on this theme before, but it doesn't hurt to reiterate, especially after Michael Young's excellent new article.

Nasrallah's defensive speech on Monday revealed an existential crisis that has worsened since the Doha agreement and Suleiman's coming to power. In his inauguration speech, Suleiman used the past tense to refer to the armed resistance Nasrallah so desperately tried to repackage and sell.

Here is an excerpt from Suleiman's speech, which has taken many by surprise for being closer to the stated March 14 line:

The emergence of the resistance was a necessity in light of the state’s disintegration, and its survival depended on the fact that the people rallied around it, and the state embraced it both as an entity and as an army. The resistance succeeded in forcing the occupier to withdraw thanks to the valor of its men and the greatness of its martyrs. However, the Shebaa Farms are still under occupation and the enemy persists in its threats and violations of [Lebanon’s] sovereignty, hence the need for us to develop a defensive strategy that preserves the nation in parallel to a calm dialogue so as to take advantage of the resistance’s energies and put them to the service of this strategy. The aim is for the resistance not to deplete its achievements in domestic disputes, thus preserving its value and national status. (translation: Now Lebanon)

In his opinion piece, Young said Nasrallah's defensive tone reaffirms that Hizbullah can no longer exist as a national resistance.  Suleiman's speech, and the Doha agreement, were, in fact, major setbacks to Hizbullah.

As Suleiman implied, the best thing that can happen now is for Hizbullah to share with the state its resistance expertise, which was a gentle way of saying that the party must integrate into the state.

Nasrallah's defensiveness also revealed something else, almost as worrying as his untenable position on Hizbullah's defense strategy. It revealed that the party views Doha as a setback. Nasrallah is right in that respect. The agreement negotiated by the Qataris was several things. It was, above all, a line drawn in the sand by the Sunni Arab world against Iran and Syria, telling them that Lebanon would not fall into their lap. In this the Qataris were part of an Arab consensus, and the Iranians, always pragmatic, backtracked when seeing how resolute the Arabs were. (The Daily Star)

All Nasrallah could do in his speech was use the disastrous summer 2006 war as a model for the defense strategy he is pushing. That war, as Young and many others have noted, resulted, in fact, in a rejection of Nasrallah strategy.

The only good thing that came out of the 2006 war, the only thing that both a majority of Lebanese and the Shiite community together approved of, was the deployment of the Lebanese Army to the South, the strengthening of UNIFIL, and the pacification of the border area. The Lebanese approved of this because it made less likely a return to Nasrallah's inane defense strategy.

Faced with this dilemma, Nasrallah could only do one thing: turn to Israel.

Thanks to the Israelis, who may soon hand a grand prisoner exchange to Hizbullah, Nasrallah may earn a brief reprieve for his "resistance." It's funny how Hizbullah and Syria, always the loudest in accusing others of being Israeli agents, are the ones who, when under pressure, look toward negotiations with Israel for an exit. Hizbullah has again done so to show that its "defense strategy" works and to deflect growing domestic insistence that the party place its weapons at the disposal of the state.

Comments

[danny]

Michael Young as well as Jeha among others have insightful analysis of the Hizb’s quandary. I will not add much to AK’s and others’ analysis as they accurately describe the transitional faze the HA finds itself in.

Their r’aison d’aitre is not valid anymore. I somewhat agree and disagree with MY’s last assertion regarding the prisoner exchange. While it provides HA a temporary boost, it also chips away from HA’s list of excuses for their “resistance”…Nass elaborated that the “prisoners” and the Shabaa & Kfarshouba are to be liberated! Next should be the transfer of Shabaa to UN control thus almost neutering HA’s. They are running on fumes (they are also inhaling them)…

[Min Canada]

AK I agree with your excellent analysis. I love the way you put things together in a concise and simple way. One thing that neither you nore the others have touched on, but which makes a lot more sense in light of your analysis is Nasrallah's comment about Wilaayat al-Faqeeh.

In light of the loss of a Lebanese r’aison d’aitre, is he invoking the nuclear option, so to speak, by saying that if you push me against the wall, I will expose my true identity and let the cips fall where they may?

Just a question for us to ponder. I am still trying to understand the significance of the Wilayat al-Faqeeh as a code for...????

[astronaut]

danny, don't worry pal, next monday Nas-'n-Friends will come with something new - judging by al-manar/tayyar et al, they're very creative (as most of the media outlets are :) )

I wouldn't be surprised if "the resistance" is now set to liberate the moon... while we "resist the resistance"

[danny]

astronaut,

if there's a moon liberation...I am certain you'll be the first to be recruited LOL...

[maverick]

LOL Danny.

Not to mention Nass' long and boring history lesson starting from the "Nakba". Its the wild card stored for desperate situations, used only when a group needs to backtrack and rally their supporters behind an honorable cause,in this case,the Palestinian issue and Zionist aggression is the wound of the Arab world,and scratching the wound plays on the subconsciously stored emotions of the masses.
Still,the question isn't about Hizbo or Nass,its about the brainwashed masses and their insistence. How to reach out to a wider audience is what M14 should be looking at before the next elections.

[maverick]

Nass also promised that Samir Kuntar will return as a free man,for the fourth time in as many years. Ha'aretz publication has conflicting views,if you like to read on,the article is called "waiting for Nasrallah".

Confessing to be a proud member of Walleyet Al Faqih, is also a startling proclomation.It makes a mockery of Hizbo allies as if Nass doesnt really care who is with him or not,in the left camp,secular nationalist camp,and the Christian support.It also says, touch us and face the wrath of Iran.

[e]

AK,
The prisoner exchange will not be much of a reprieve for HA. Even if it includes Kuntar, it will be the worst exchange deal ever for the Arabs, about 10 Lebanese for 2 Israelis (probably dead). Nasrallah was counting on freeing hundreds of Palestinians but this is not happening. The fact that he has to agree to such a bad deal, just shows how much he needs something to bolster is weak position.

Also, in order to get Kuntar, HA has to provide a detailed report to Israel on its efforts to find Ron Arad. Having to justify itself to Israel would be quite humiliating for HA.

The bottom line is that the prisoner exchange will not help HA much and will only raise again the question about whether the 2006 war was worth getting back Kuntar.

[Bad Vilbel]

Maverick touched on the real issue when he said:
"Still,the question isn't about Hizbo or Nass,its about the brainwashed masses and their insistence. How to reach out to a wider audience is what M14 should be looking at before the next elections."

This is exactly why others and myself have repeatedly laid the problem, ultimately, at the feet of the Lebanese people.

In other news, today's headlines are filled with the stink of Saniora's re-appointment as PM. I really don't understand how the opposition can have any moral high ground complaining about this one (but of course, they will). Last week, it was all "The majority can appoint whoever they want." and now the tune is "Appointing Saniora is a provocation!" and you have that stupid FPM guy (Nabil Nicola) asking the Emir of Qatar to have Saniora removed (way to NOT accept foreign meddling, idiot!) and everyone from Arslan to Hardan whining and complaining.

This is going to make for a completely dysfunctional government (assuming we ever get one) right off the bat. As someone else said: BACK TO SQUARE ONE.

While I agree with AK and MY that HA's reason-d'etre is quickly going away and being chipped at, every day. That doesn't make them and their cronies any less dangerous and it still leaves us with a weak state that's incapable of governing (and probably soon to be paralyzed).

I have yet to get on board the "optimist" bandwagon that some have ferried around, because I have yet to see the "exit strategy" for all this.

[maverick]

BV,
The cunning strategy behind Sanioras re appointment is a decoy move, to buy time until Super Saad takes over come next election. And the crowd goes wild.
Sarcasm aside, this period between the Doha agreement and the next elections will not bring any major changes. They will keep the status Quo until next summer.So lettim have their veto,nothing of particular importance will be proposed. Its gonna be a period where politics will go on behind the scenes and under tables, and so the Lebanese people can let out a sigh of relief and enjoy the music festivities.
But be prepared for a scorching summer in 2009.

[AK]

For the record, saying that Hizbullah is in an existential crisis is not the same as being optimistic. I am not on that wagon, and I don't think that many people are on it either. I certainly do not harbor any illusions. These are just observations and do no suggest that peace will prevail and everything will be resolved. In fact, I am not an optimist at all. Whether we like it or not, there's still a powder keg waiting to explode.

[Ken]

And I'm sure Israel is waiting in delight for the world to see the spetacle of Lebanon going apeshit happy at getting their baby killer Kuntar back.

[Bad Vilbel]

AK,

Sorry. My comment (as in previous cases) was NOT directed at you specifically. I actually agree with your current take on the situation 100%.

When I talk of optimism, I am talking about the (as usual) shortsighted celebratory mood that prevailed Lebanon over the past week, post-Doha.

You and I might think that the mood is not optimistic, but the "word on the street", as is common in Lebanon, was painting Doha as some kind of breakthrough, and the public sentiment (as far as I can tell) seemed to be that now we have a president, and everything's fixed (as if that was the problem to start with). The sentiment among the populace seemed to be further exacerbated by the nice words coming out of Lebanese politicians (that didn't last long huh?) and foreign diplomats (everyone from Bush to Assad congratulating Suleiman and seeming to be "happy" with the Doha deal).

Of course, you and I both know all that facade means nothing. But trust me, there are SO many Lebanese people who fall for this crap every single time. That's what I don't understand.

So again, you don't have to clarify your stance whenever i talk about optimism..I'm not refering to you. :)

[Meghwar]

I have been lately, reading more, and keeping my mouth shut, 'seems we are back to "square one"...which as it happened, I have discovered an allergy to our Lebanese "squrare one " consequently having chronic nausea hence.... keeping it shut!

Yet, I have to Agree with Maverick, BV and the last post by AK as to not jump onto the optimism wagon, especially with Nasnass' back to the wall, this man is dangerous and a traitor (combined with wilayat el-faqih brainwash) he would do anything to keep his grip on the country and his zombies( or HIS part of it ) no matter what ...even a "civil" war...this guy lives on the ideology of death and martyrdom...for the beautiful brown eyes of that khamenei...his real leader and Master...So what do you expect from him...As far as I am concerned I am not holding my breath on teh contrary I think that the more this guy feels insecure the more we should feel the danger ourselves !

BV is absolutely right about the Lebanese people and their RESPONSIBILITY ( if not Patriotism ) to make sure that in the next round ( and it is coming ) the TRAITORS are to be hanged and not rewarded with a veto power !

Alas I am not holding my breath on this one either, the Lebanese are a bunch of tribes and as Ghassan Charbel wrote in his article / Al-Hayat :

" The Lebanese are Lebanon's real problem; they love it far more or less than they should. They also err in how they love. They love it from artery to artery."

I feel sick to my stomach...But one thing though ...I thank God I got the heck out of this so called "country" !

[Max Power]

The time has come for someone to see if the Sheikh isn't a Mossad agent. Israel benefits from his buildup as a buffer to the Palestinians and Sunni as well as a way to keep Lebanon in the stoneages and to ensure that Lebanon never gets up on it's two feet and starts to act as a nation. It's a controlled opposition.

We have heard how Hariri and Sinoira are zionist stooges, the question is worth looking into.

[Max Power]

While the Sheikh is working on national defense and prisoner exchanges, someone please have him look into the Lebanese prisoners in Syria and have them released, he should also take his "defensive" straetegy to the east. If he does that and agrees to defend Lebanon from enemies, foreign and domestic he will be a statesmen par excellance.

[Bad Vilbel]

Worth repeating, just cause:

"The Lebanese are Lebanon's real problem; they love it far more or less than they should. They also err in how they love. They love it from artery to artery."

That is very well said!

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

I don't see it your way, AK.

Young:"...Thanks to the Israelis, who may soon hand a grand prisoner exchange to Hizbullah, Nasrallah may earn a brief reprieve for his "resistance".

It is right and wise to defuse one of the 2 main issues ('Asra' and Shab'a). In the short term it looks like Israel is helping HA. But in fact this drops the reason for any HA divine adventure in the future.
It would also could have been wise to give those STUPID Shab'a "farms" to the UN mandate. Farms my a**s. No farms there what so ever. Try to grow something on the rocky slopes, with no water, no roads, and no nothing. Stupid and useless.
.

[Max Power]

How does it drop any "divine adventure" when he also wants to capture "Quds" and liberate it?

As far as Shebaa farms go, who does it belong to? At one point, Syrians laid claim to it as well as Israel and Lebanon.

Israel benefits from HA being in power for many reasons. Intentional or Unintentional.

[ghassan karam]

Many of us have taken the position 3 years ago that logic, common sense and history dictate that HA will not be able to claim an ultimate victory in this war/crisis. To me that has always been a given, an axiom that is not open to discussion.

If you believe in the above then HA will merely move forward until it reaches the point where the contradictions of its existence will become so overwheming that it will fade away. But as others have claimed earlier if one is to believe that some of the recent developments have started to create fissures in HA's image that is a far cry from saying that this is the end for this reactionary, destructive ideology of death. What will eventually play a major role in bringing HA down besides the inevitability of the March of history is the megalomania of Hassan Nasrallah. He has become invincuble in his own eyes, which makes him doubly dangerous but his vicious pursuit of power will eventually help bring him down. No person , all throughout history has been invincible, not Hannibal, not Napoleon, not Hitler and Hassan Nasrallah will meet the same fate. But it is important to keep in mind that HA will not just go away quietly. "Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely" is an adage that we should keep in mind. The HA hierarchy will not agree to play second fiddle and will keep on seeking and finding excuses to keep their weapons and continue spreading their hegemony. I think that if it is true that we have reached the zenith of HA power then that is exactly when we have to expect things to get worse, much worse before they get better. The clear admittance that HA is driven by the philosophy of "Vilayat Al Faqih" is an indication that Mr, Nasrallah does not feel that he needs to hide his aims and motives any longer. He feels on top of the world and in particular as a result of the strong public embrace by the Iranian regime that his labeled him as the favourite son. The regime in Tehran and HA by extension is driven by one thing only: destroy Israel at any cost. They will spare no effort to keep funding Hamas and HA in order to keep the effort to liberate Palestine. That is why, Sheba'a, the tribunal, the presidency ... are only convenient excuses to continue the struggle. They will find new obstacles as the old ones are resolved.
To believe that HA will eventually destroy itself is not the same as saying that we should be bystanders. And that is the rub. The process can be shortened but only if we can take meaningful action in order to hasten the down fall of HA. March 14 has failed to act as a catalyst, has failed to govern and has become bogged down with peripheral meaningless issues such as the `consecration of Rafic Hariri and replacing one foreign undemocratic sphere of influence with another. Are the Salafis better than the Iranian Vilayat Al Faqih? I am not so sure. Would it be a move forward if at best we restore to Lebanon its feudalism. market findementalism in the extreme plus the power of the clergy? I hope that we all will agree that the answer is an unqualified no. As you can see the lebanese crisis is not onle l;imited to a banishing of the HA ideology but we have to develop a more just , democratic, responsive and non sectarian alternative. The eventual death of HA might be assured but up until now I see no hopeful signs that any progress is taking place on the equally important issue of finding a different political leadership and promoting citizenship (Mowatiniah). I am afraid that come 2009 we will hold elections where many will participate by voting but few will really use their power to elect.

AK,
I did not imply in my earlier post that you should do something about Abilama. There ought to be more productive and inportant things that you can do besides acting as a gate keeper:-) People will always abuse privileges. I accept that as being the price for freedom.

[Abu Yussif]

that's right! if it weren't for the jews, there would be no problems over here. once again, the "protocols of the elders of zion" got it right.

[Charlie]

Abu Yussif,

You are a funny guy, aren't ya...:-)

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

Pretty much agree with your last comments with one exception:

“The regime in Tehran and HA by extension is driven by one thing only: destroy Israel at any cost”

Not sure that is their main drive; I think they are driven by an expansionist agenda that seeks domination over the Umma, which for most part means dominate the Arab world and their Sunni population. The death to Israel drive is a good rallying call that resonates well in the Arab street and they are taking full advantage of it to win support amongst the Arab masses, specially with the non-Shia part.

[Bad Vilbel]

I have to agree with Charlie on this one. Not that it matters to us, but I don't think the mullahs in Tehran are as interested in destroying Israel as they are in preserving their power.

One has to remember that the Iranian regime is not exactly liked much, be it inside Iran or outside. And as with anyone in power anywhere (democratic or otherwise), the no.1 goal is always regime preservation (and preserving all the perks and riches that come with).

Destroying Israel is but a rallying cry that resonates well in the muslim and shia worlds, and helps paint an otherwise autocratic regime as "just". Add to that the nationalism card which is used to rally the Iranian street against the "American project" (many Iranians see the US as trying to stifle Iran by taking away its nuke project, for example) and you get a better picture for the real motivation of the mullahs.

[ghassan karam]

Charlie,
I have to agree with your insightful remark. I think that you are right, once Israel ceases to exist then the Iranian/Shiite project will shift its focus to the domination of the Umma.

[Max Power]

Iran wants to be the sphere of influence in the Middle East, pure and simple. They want to be the support state that Arabs come to for money and policy.

As far as Israel goes, why was Ahmadnejad so quiet in 2006? He rails aganist the "abstarct" Palestinian issue and Israel. However, the one time he had an excuse to attack Israel, he was as quiet as a Puppy who got smacked.

Guys like him and Chavez are bozos/clowns. They talk a good game, but where is there game? The Sheikh is too clever and leaves an opening to preserve himself. He knows that any deal cut means the end of his patronage as well as his existance. If you believe Israeli intelligance, he undermined Iran and Syria at Doha. However, I think the Sheikh is playing the waiting game and hopes to get Lebanon by attrition and or apathy.

BV is right about the regime not being popular and the 150 dollar oil makes people listen to him. I still think his days are numbered and Dubya's gift to the world is a neutered and sprayed Iran.

[ghassan karam]

BV
Let me have Ayatollah Khomeini speak for himself:
On Israel:
"It is forbidde for any Moslem state to have commercial and diplomatic relations with [Israel} and it is the duty of all Moslems to oppose such relations by every means available; any businessman having commercial dealings with Israel, its representatives, or its agents is a traitor to Islam and to all Moslems."

On World Domination:
"Holy war means the conquest of all non-Moslem territories....the final aim of which is to put Koranic lawin power from one end of the earth to the other"

Note that according to the first statement non of the current Arab governments pass the test. Egypt, UAE, Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman ... are not considered to have Islamic governments and thus the Moslem citizens have the right to rebel and even assassinate these leaders. They , just as Sadat, are considered to be traitors to Islam; they are aspostate.

Speaking about apostasy, will Obama ,if elected President be able to visit say Saudi Arabia , Pakistan or Egypt without fearing for his life as an apostate? An OpEd in the NYT raised that possibility a few weeks ago.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

Come on. Don't give me quotes. You and I know that ANY leadership, in ANY country is first and foremost concerned with preserving itself in power.

I don't mean to imply that the mullahs love Israel or anything. Sure, religion and their skewed view of the world dictates the dogma they preach. But in the end, ANYTHING a group in power says is somewhat related to their no.1 priority, staying in power.

The one constant adage throughout history has been that groups fight hard to GAIN power, and once they get it, they fight hard to KEEP it.

That applies to democratically elected governments, autocratic regimes, Nazis, mullahs and everyone else. It is important to keep that in mind to filter out ANYTHING anyone says. They will ALL contradict themselves in the end, when they have to chose between power and dogma.

If some day, it were to pass that the Mullahs regime in Iran had to choose between relinquishing power or staying in power but recognizing Israel, I guarantee you 100% that they'll choose the latter course.

Rhetoric and dogma is but a tool of statecraft, nothing more. That guy in Damascus, and his father before him, have been quoted about Israel for a lot longer than there even was an Iranian regime (going back to the 70s when Hafez came to power) and yet they continue to act in cahoots with the Israelis when they need to.

I shouldn't have rambled this much. I think you know better, Ghassan.

[ghassan karam]

BV,
I am afraid that this time we don't see eye to eye. Hell we are on opposite sides:-) I think that your position is difficult to support. You are committing what I like to call selective indignation. You cannot accept part of the teachings of Ayatollah Khomeini because they support your position and reject the parts that do not. These teachings form an integral whole. They should not be treated as a cafeteria line where I choose what I want. If you are willing to accept the validity of the teachings about Vilayat AlFaqih to the extent that you will use them against HA then you have also to take seriously his other teachings about the relationship to Israel, the role of the Imam, Holy war, the wearing of the Hijab and ablution just to name a few areas that he dealt with.

[ghassan karam]

BV,
I am afraid that this time we don't see eye to eye. Hell we are on opposite sides:-) I think that your position is difficult to support. You are committing what I like to call selective indignation. You cannot accept part of the teachings of Ayatollah Khomeini because they support your position and reject the parts that do not. These teachings form an integral whole. They should not be treated as a cafeteria line where I choose what I want. If you are willing to accept the validity of the teachings about Vilayat AlFaqih to the extent that you will use them against HA then you have also to take seriously his other teachings about the relationship to Israel, the role of the Imam, Holy war, the wearing of the Hijab and ablution just to name a few areas that he dealt with.

[Linda]

i am going to have a dinner party and have you all over to celebrate our "never ending stories..."... . it will surely make for some worldly discussions. checking this site and your back and forth is quite addictive. And by the way it is "raison d'etre" with that weird circonflex accent on the e that i don't have on my very american keybord.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

I am not sure I understand what you're talking about. Nor do I think you understood what I was talking about.

I am looking past Khomeini and I'm generalizing to pretty much any regime that's ever graced any nation throughout history. The number priority of any ruler, regime, or leader has always been preserving themselves in the seat of power. That is my contention.
That does NOT necessarily contradict dogma and rhetoric. But the latter are often used as TOOLS (in the machiavellian sense) of power. That doesn't mean those wielding those tools don't believe in them. I am sure they do. But in the end, their supreme goal is preserving themselves in power.

It a natural law of entropy (of sorts) that any movement (revolutionary or otherwise) is usually PROACTIVE when seeking power, when climbing the ladder, so to speak, but turns to a REACTIVE of self-preservation once said power is attained. Think of it as "the hunter becomes the hunted".

Everyone always guns for no.1 (be it in sports, or politics). When you're the pretender, you are more proactive. Your aim is to take over the number 1 spot. To dethrone the current leader or ruler. But when YOU are in the no.1 spot and everyone else is gunning for you, your top priority always ends up being defensive preservation of your status quo.

If the Iranian mullahs' top priority was destroying Israel, at any cost. All they needed to do was launch a few missiles towards Tel Aviv. If their aim was truly what some say "bringing forth the apocalypse" then that couldv'e been attained years ago, without the need to play all these silly games.
Instead, you have massive fortunes being amassed by the likes of Rafsanjani, for example (why do you need several hundred million dollars if you're looking to bring forth the apocalypse)?

Rhetoric is all well and good within the context of populism. But make no mistake, Ghassan, leaders in every country are interested in power and in keeping power, first and foremost ("power corrupts, etc.").

[Charlie]

Ghassan,

Excellent excerpts from Khomeini.

Keep in mind when Khomeini is talking about having a Koranic rule it is based on his interpretation on how the Umma must be ruled, which is under “Vilayat Al Faqih”. Failure of any Moslem group to fully integrate into that Vilayat means they are not yet implementing the holly rule and they must be forced to assimilate.

With that in mind one will start to appreciate the importance of HA to Iran and how far they are going to go to protect it and keep it alive. Also, one will come to realize how far HA can or will veer away (if any at all) from the “Vilayat Al Faqih”.
HA sworn allegiance to the Faqih, meaning they are the ones responsible for delivering the Lebanese, Syrian, and Palastinians and a lot more of the Arab street to Khomeini’s Umma. This role is so important that I doubt Iran will ever let go of HA willingly.

If one looks at the last deal that took place in Qatar from a regional perspective, you willl see how Iran was willing to trade in Sadr in Iraq for HA in Lebanon. This also clarifies how much more important NAS is to the Mullah’s of Iran than Sadr ever was. Iran feels secure with their control over the Shia population in Iraq and their level of commitment, Hakim is their man, Sadr was an will always be a wanna be thug that Iran can tap into to do the dirty work, and they are comfortable pulling the plug on him any time and turning to other Shia leaders to take over the Iraqi state of the Umma. In Lebanon and the rest of the Arab world, HA and NAS is the only card they have to play to deliver that segment (Arab) of the Umma to the great Vilayat, which means Iran can not afford to drop HA.

All this talk about HA losing political points on the Lebanese scene really is not much of a price for HA to pay. For HA if they fail to deliver their people, and I mean all the people and not just the Shia, by political means to the Mullah’s, then force will do just fine.

[Min Canada]

Linda will I be invited? LOL.

[Linda]

Why isn't anyone addressing the fact that they have free elections in Iran and the reformists were in power before Ahmadi&Co. They collaborated with the US and were actually in partnership in dealing with the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan who was not accepting US terms in setting their new govt. Does anyone really know how different mullas affect the master “Vilayat Al Faqih" plan. So in line with BV maybe the selling tune to the masses now is death to Israel death to America but with new elections and an ongoing "unofficial" peace talks between Assad and Olmert they might change their rethorics.

[Linda]

And absolutely min canada: u and i can duel over who is more patriotic those who summer or those who boycot summers in Libnan and I am sure GK and BV will keep the debates heated over whatever AK suggests!

[Bad Vilbel]

I wouldn't call what they have in Iran "free elections".
Sure, they're elections, but most candidates are vetted by the supreme guide and his council. That's not "free" by any means.

The whole "reformists" vs. "hardline" in Iran is not so much about ideological differences as it is about a struggle for power (again, back to that theme) between 2 factions, who disagree as to what method will work best for holding on to said power.

The so-called reformists merely happen to think that the mullah regime has a better chance of surviving if they're not as confrontational to the West. That doesn't make them much more "freedom loving" or "democratic".

[danny]

Great analysis from all. On another positive note (hopefully), today on kallam el Nas on LBC, I heard tens of regular Lebanese youth as well as the analysts in unison condemning the escalation in Nass's speech as well expressing views that we discuss here...non sectarian society of laws and institutions...Also, they seemed unanimous in their analysis that Doha is just a temparoray truce! There's hope down there. They were all crying for new and responsible leadership. I am hoping these youth are reflective of the population at large.
The show was being broadcast from Nejmeh square.

I saw at least a glimmer of hope. I think our discussion of Naja's proposal should move forward...We can make a difference. I saw an immense potential.I hope AK you can run with this by summarizing our thoughts and suggestions in an upcoming post...

Many thanks

[ghassan karam]

Danny/Min Canada/Helen/JW
Would you please send me your personal email. You may send it to Gkaram@pace.edu or
wp.karam@gmail.com

Tnx

[Helen]

Danny,
definitely. I've followed this blog lately hoping that something will come-up... I don't like words too much and I like to take action, specially that you all somehow agree 'sur le fond', and there are so many like you out there. so again, I am in, hoping that I will be able to help in some way for the good cause. By the way, I find that the comments above are great and GK's paragraph is very well written...

[Helen]

AK,
I apologize but I forgot to add that I enjoy reading your news as they give a clear and concise view of the situation and thus, have been skipping watching the news lately (our news are such a waste of time! I have never seen this anywhere else where half the news in lebanon are about stakbala wa stoukbila!).

[bint ras-beyrouth]

In case you missed it:
Freakiest pic of the week at http://www.lorient-lejour.com.lb/page.aspx?page=main-page
Fed-up-with-it editorial at http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&article_id=92575&categ_id=17

a little late in the discussion - but re BV/GK historical analysis, we should all (re)read Ibn Khaldun - just sayin'

[maverick]

Not so freaky,as weve grown accustomed to Aouns pathological ways. The old man is rotting,and needs an exit strategy,especially after the announcement of Walliyet Al Faqih. The question is will the Simon Says game between Aoun and his supporters continue...Are they all going to hand out Gardenias?

[Helen]

au fait, I learned that aoun was trying to push for his 'blanc-bec de gendre' as minister of foreign affairs....

[Helen]

you know the remaining aunists follow-him blindly... I know a few like that. People don't understand that. They will never change as long as mustakbal and/or FL are strong.

[Umm K.]

It's so exciting to have women here, finally! No offense to the rest of you guys :) AK appreciates all his readers regardless!

[maverick]

Well Helen,
The aounists,Nassralites, et al are worshippers of the personality cult,and as long as there is someone speaking against their leader,theres gonna be a glitch in their system and they will turn against you. If you argue a realistic point,they will cut you off suddenly with something like " Whatabout your leader? how can you trust him,look at his past"....thats when you look up at the sky and say "$%#@%^&......these people are not normal"
Anyways, Its a good thing they wont change if Musta2bal/PSP/LF are strong cos that would mean M14 has to expire itself,delete itself from the system when its service is done,inorder to let any progress come about.
If i can play God and write the ending to this Saga, then M14 leaders and the Zaim of the old ride off to the horizon forever never to be seen while crowds line the streets cheering for them as they have defeated the Dragon,and freed Lebanon,and in their places, comes a new breed of lancelots putting their Nation above all else,while Hayfa sings in the new Era.
Stuff of fairytales really..

[ghassan karam]

"how many years can some people exist
Before they're allowed to be free?
Yes, 'n' how many times can a man turn his head,
Pretending he just doesn't see?
The answer, my friend, is blowin' in the wind,
The answer is blowin' in the wind."

Did Bob Dylan know , when he wrote the above that he was describing the Lebanese state of affairs? There must be a limit to how many times a government and a people get in order to learn from history and stop repeating the same mistakes. But not in Lebanon. Is there a single person in Lebanon, politician, journalist, TV personality, anyone who recognizes the extent to which the cancer of confessionalism has become entrenched in the Lebanese body politic? Have you noticed that every political grouping, Orange, Tashnak, Phalange, LF, Mustaqbal... has made a comment about their expectations regarding the shape of the new cabinet but not one has spoken in non sectarian terms. Every kind of an expectation has been voiced in purely sectarian terms: We want one Greek Orthodox; we expect 3 Maronites, there ought to be 6 Sunnis etc... How about just appointing various representatives based on their qualification and ability. Is what is good for Lebanon ever taken into consideration or is it always the clan? The whole world has managed to move from allegiance to the family then the clan , the tribe , the state and in some circumstances the specie. But that is not good for us in Lebanon. We are still stuck at the clan level. Folks, we have not even moved to the level of the tribe yet. What a shame, what a missed opportunity.
When would we ever realize that this narrow confessional prism is destructive, selfish, bankrupt, reactionary, discriminatory,undemocratic and brings about nothing but self inflicted wounds.
My level of frustration with all the politicians , leaders and opinion makers is the highest it has ever been. I fully understand that in this case the politicians are simply catering to the demands of the people but I would have expected, actually I demand that those that seek my support have the courage to question openly the need to rely on such an outdated concept of personal identity.
When would we realize that what is good for the country promotes the common good while what is good for a clan is often not beneficial to the community at large?
A country , just like an individual or an institution gets to fail but if it does not learn from its failure then it would just perish and fade away. I would rather see it perish than to keep extending its miserable lifespan if it refuses to live up to what is right and decent.

Paradoxically, HA seems to be the only group that is exploiting this weakness in the Lebanese system by suggesting that they are willing to consider giving most of their eleven cabinets to Christians (5), Sunnis (1), Druze (1)and they will settle for only four Shiites to be shared between them and Amal. Obviously the 4 Shiites will take the more "valuable" portfolios. This is a brilliant move that will allow Aoun to take credit for Christian representation, Arslan for increasing the Druze participation and Karami for giving the "other" Tripolitans a voice.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

I just logged on here to post about the exact topic you addressed at the end of your comment.

HA is trying to have it both ways. They want to weaken the majority by eating away at the druze and sunni representation, while pretending to be non-sectarian. But if push comes to shove, they'll complain about there not being enough shiite representation. Let's not forget that it was that very argument the opposition used against the last government when the shia ministers resigned. According to Berri, the government was illegitimate because there weren't any shia in it.

So I want to hear M14 make it clear to the opposition that they cannot have it both ways. If you want to be the shia representatives (HA seats), then you don't get to appoint druze or sunnis. On the other hand, if you want to play the non-sectarian game, and appoint non-shia representatives for HA, then you CANNOT complain later that there isn't enough Shia representation.

Needless to say, in an ideal world, devoid of this sectarian cancer, the division of portfolios should not have any baring on sects. The agreement was 11 for the opposition and 16 for the majority, and for all i care, the majority can appoint 16 shia ministers and the opposition can appoint 11 Christians. But we both know that is NOT how it's played. The opposition wants it both ways. They want the 11 seats to represent their sects AND to be able to eat into the majority's sectarian representation.

Seriously. I said it once before, i forget where, but I could solve Lebanon's problem in 2 hours: Pass a decree abolishing sectarianism at all levels, effective immediately and then let the democratic system play out. I guarantee you that 1 decree would take care of 99% of the problems.

[LebExile]

Bad Vibel...

I'm with you 100 percent on the abolition of sectarianism, however, I really dont want to see lebanon turn into Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt or Syria...

The christians are what have made Lebanon what it is, and lets face it, if you totally abolish sectarianism, thats the direction we will head for.

Now, to abolish sectarianism, why not go the taif route. Abolish it in the lower house, create a senate, consisting of 2 members from each sect - that deal in only constitutional matters - and require a 75% requirement for any amendmant to pass...

This way, you get a non sectarian government, a president, PM and speaker from any sect who will best fit the role, and all minorities will be secure in the fact that Lebanon will remain a democratic republic and not turn into an islamic state ruled by Shri3eh Law...

OK, you might find this comment a little racist, however, that is how I feel, and if I'm not 100% certain that Lebanon will remain a democratic republic, with democratic laws, respect for freedom of expression, etc... I will be following my clan leader - who seems to be at least looking out for my interests - as I have no interest in living in (or visiting) a clone of Syria or Saudi Arabia.

As for division of seats and quota's, I find it repulsive how they are fighting over sunni seats, maronite seats, or shia seats, I would much rather the seats be allocated on the basis of merit, and I couldn't care less if the president was durzi, suni, shii, or christian... if you gave me 3 candidates and asked I choose which I would prefer, unless sectarianism is abolished, I would choose s/he who I believe will be most beneficial to the country...

But, as sectarianism is still the name of the game, I have no choice but to support the maronite candidate...

Now, you can argue all you like in your ivory towers, and discuss this or that theory, mentality, or tribal/clan instinct, but, you have to also look at the context you're dealing with here...

Lebanon is a small country - actually the smallest in the middle of theocracies, totalitarian regimes, and brutal dictatorships. Any one group from the mix of all the different groups has been and probbably will continue to find a willing sponsor who is willing and able to poison the relations among the other groups..

first it was the palestinians - who were pretty much backed by most the arab world, now you have Hizb backed by Iran... tomorrow, you may have Future Militia backed by Saudi Arabia or even Lebanese Forces backed by the US...

If you really want a non sectarian government, I'd suggest you start with non sectarian political parties. Lets face it, when you speak to another lebanese person, the following questions usually come up:

what is your name?
what villiage are you from?

we all know the motive behind that question is Are you sunni, shii, christian, or durzi???

however, if I asked you what political party you support/belong to and the answer was:

Future Movement : Sunni
Phalangist: Maronite
Tashnaq: Armaenian
Amal: Shia
Hizb: shia
Kateeb: Maronite
PSP: Durzi

you get the point...

why cant we simply have republican party
liberal party, labor party, nationalist party etc...

[Bad Vilbel]

LebExile,

No offense, but I stopped reading when you said abolishing sectarianism in Lebanon would turn it into Saudi Arabia.

That's a bunch of bullshit.

I don't want to judge or be a tool, but I'm assuming you're a Christian. And Christians in Lebanon need to start understanding that in a secular state, being a minority is QUITE OK. African Americans and Hispanics are minorities in the US, but the US hasn't turned into Saudi Arabia, last i checked. There is an African American running for president, and there are hispanics at all levels of government and elsewhere.

It is this defensive siege mentality of the Christians that is in large part responsible for the way Lebanon is today (not that I'm absolving the other sects of blame here) and it needs to STOP.

In a secular Lebanon, it DOES NOT MATTER if the President, PM and Speaker are ALL Shia. Why? Because church is separated from State in a secular state. It should matter no more than it matters if all 3 leaders are men (and not women) or if all 3 leaders have black hair and your hair happens to be blonde.

I understand where this paranoia comes from. But it needs to stop if we are to ever move forward. Christians are afraid that somehow a majority of muslims in power are going to suddenly make it illegal to worship in Church or force your women to wear chadors. That is NOT going to happen in a truly secular state such as the one I envision. When you set up a secular state, you have to enshrine the separation of state and church in your constitution (much like it is in the US and most of the Western countries) so that no government (shia or otherwise) can dictate your religious affairs. End of story.

Seriously, step away from sectarian thinking, and imagine for a minute we were having this same conversation about people's hair color. That will show you how ridiculous this argument is.

You're saying you, as a blonde-haired guy, are afraid for your rights if we were to stop checking hair color in our political allotment. Because most Lebanese happen to be dark haired. And you are afraid that if you remove the special allocation for blondes, the dark-haired people will take over and somehow start forcing you to die your hair. Seriously? So instead, you want to keep in place a system where it expressly says "we shall have 30% blonde people in parliament, and there must be X blondes in the cabinet".

That is NOT the answer.

The answer is to REMOVE any mention of blondes and dark-haired from the system and make hair color IRRELEVANT (as it happens it is right now, last i checked, Saniora was not checking hair color to form his government).

Your religious beliefs should be your own and should be protected by the constitution, and that's it. They should have as much baring on government make up as hair color, gender, foot size, eye color, or height and weight.