Hizbullah continues military offensive in Chouf

Areas in Aley are being bombed by Hizbullah artillery, and clashes broke out between Hizbullah, pro-Syrian Arslan and Jumblatt's PSP in Choueifat, forcing many residents to flee. My parents, who live in the area, have fled under gunfire and heavy bombardment.

Walid Jumblatt in a phone call to LBC, described the clashes as unfortunate clashes between Shias and Druze, and said he agreed to Arslan's mediation offer to stop hostilities. A breathless Jumblatt called on his fighters to remember that coexistence and civil peace are more important than anything else, and advised Arslan to rely on the Lebanese army.

LBC reported that Hizbullah is bombing an area situated between two Shia villages, Qmatieh and Kayfoun, to create a contiguous Shia area.

Update. Jumblatt's PSP in Choueifat, have, under orders from Jumblatt, handed over their weapons to Arslan's militia.

Update 2. You know Hizbullah has gone too far when even Arslan had to assure them that Mount Lebanon has always been on the side of the resistance, in a hint that they need not bomb it to oblivion. Arslan appealed to the "opposition" to cease hostilities. He said that Jumblatt had authorized him to coordinate the handover of all PSP weapons to the Lebanese army, and that he will call Suleiman to begin drawing a plan to ending hostilities.

Update 3. Pro-syrian dog Wiam Wahab: (Now Lebanon)

Wahab: there is coordination between opposition on what is taking place in al-jabal.
Wahab: We want to keep the al-jabal safe but the army has to act fast and the PSP have to hand all their weapons … I hope that Jounblat told Erslan that the PSP will give all their weapons and their offices or the fighting will continue
Wahab: many PSP offices fell under the control of the opposition… but many others giving up their offices peacefully.
Wahab: Lebanese Unification Movement, Democratic Party and Syrian Social Nationalist party are the ones fighting in al-jabal against PSP… no Hezbollah gunmen are involved in the fighting.

Update 4. Ceasefire at 6pm Beirut time.

Update 5. Citizen from deir koubel, a druze village, to LBC:

We have been calling the army to come to our village since yesterday, but they have ignored our call. Hizbullah is still bombarding us. Our village is burning, we don't have weapons or armed men here. We will not accept any other force in our village. Only the army. What are they (the army) waiting for?

Comments

[Vox P.]

Capitulation. Again.

As we say in my family, kel kalb 3ando sa3to.

[maverick]

For all those instigating that the PSP is an armed militia, Druze men protected their village against armed aggressors( Prob Hizbo) using hunting rifles and knives. From an insider, i can assure you, if the Druze were properly armed, there would be no hesitation, and a major battle would occur between Hizbo and the Druze.
But since They are not armed, and Joumblatt is playing Ghandi with his passive resistance,putting his faith in Michel Sulieman and "that" army,there will not be any battles.
My heart goes out to the Druze women trying to calm down their men right now, as most are punching walls, cursing their leader, and trying to sink thier heads in cool water.
If Hizbo/SSNP/et al continue....there wont be much Joumblatt can do to hold back his community, niether will Geagea and Hariri.

[Charlie]

Maverick,

You are absolutely right; it seems like Joumblatt, Harriri and Geagea have forgotten how to conduct politics Lebanese style. They are failing their communities and in return their communities will find others to fill this void.

These clowns called M14 forgot that they are fighting a WAR of independence…Bunch of jokers.

[Min Canada]

THE BROADER PICTURE:

For anyone who thinks that the events of the last few days were a message to the Gov. of Lebanon or the Lebanese factions who oppose HA, think again. There is a broader context to the events that I would like you to consider. One that the west is reading very well.

In 2006, and with intelligence in hand that Israel was preparing a war against HA, The Sayed ordered the kidnapping of the IDF soldiers from across the boarder. Despite all the backtracking that happened afterwards, the action was well calculated and forced the Israel to make a political decision when its military was not prepared to go yet. The results were a disaster for the IDF. HA was ready, they were not. They needed intelligence and they didn't have it and they ran a war in a blind disadvantage. Kudos for HA. They forced the issue and got the advantage.

The lesson was not lost. Today, HA is fully ready for war. They have rebuilt their arsenal and are at the maximum advantage point. They know that there are intense efforts to infiltrate their systems. There are maximum efforts to track their infrastructure and everyday that passes from here on brings a disadvantage to them. The risk is that the IDF will know a bit more tomorrow than they did today and build a cool-headed strategy to win this time around.

It was therefore important to try to repeat the forced war with the IDF early. A provocation along the lines of the last war would not do. The UN forces are in the south and they would be involved. HA banked on a misunderstanding of what the Gov. Forces in Lebanon represented to the US and Israel. They truly thought that the US will defend them and send the IDF to support them.

Israel has been sending clear signals to the USA that they have no interest in taking on HA or Iran in the absence of a fail-proof missile defence system. 2 Months ago, the IDF heads were invited to Arizona to witness live tests of the system the USA would like to hand over to Israel. The system was good, but not great and the IDF brass flew back home with a "you can do better" message to the US. Israel's decision on war, the next war, will not come from the politicians as it did in 2006. It will come from the military (Lessons learned). And they will only make that decision when the missile shield is in place.

HA is now in a difficult position. They were hoping to dictate when the war would start. They were hoping to drop the mask off of the Lebanese Gov. and show them as US and Israeli allies. They were hoping to take the initiative away. They failed. Now what? Will they escalate to force the issue? Will they test the blue line? As they feel more and more of their advantage is slipping, they will be more willing to force the war to maintain some elements of surprise. Expect the IDF to fight when and only when they are ready. Keep an eye and an ear for news on the Missile Defense systems and their deployments in Israel. Expect the news to be a few months old. When the IDF announces the full deployment of the system and the successful test of the system, buy a ticket out of Beirut.

For now, nothing will happen and the Sayed is not happy about that.

[Ralph]

About the news reportingon this blog:

It takes two to Tango, ya habibi. Even Jumblat is admitting that the problem is two-sided: "The issue is in the citizens' hands because the mountain citizens refuse to have their areas controled. This has nothing to do with our party."

So, take a chill pill because it is naive apologists like yourself, who refuse to see the participants for the blood thirsty, clanish people that they are, who feed the fire. Of course Hizballah is putting on a disgusting show of power, but if anything, the last few days have revealed that EVERYONE, and I mean, EVERYONE has illegal weapons.

[Solomon2]

"Of course Hizballah is putting on a disgusting show of power, but"

Ah, the power of the word "but". A attacks B, B defends against A, and that fact is used to defend A's attack against B in the first place.

[AK]

Ralph, I will break my own rules and say this to you:

Fuck you. If you don't like this blog, fuck off and go somewhere else.

[maverick]

Thats right ralph, my grandfather with a walking stick has a hunting rifle.I think Hizbo is using him as a pretense to attack civilian areas in Druze villages. As we speak, there is "heavy artillery" deployed in Aley against defenseless citizens.

[Solomon2]

I hope your parents remain O.K., AK. My heart goes out especially to those innocents who are too old or too feeble to flee the battle areas.

[Vox P.]

For those who think that non-violence is the best course to follow, let me ask this question: how many 'victories' will we have to swallow before M14 starts to fight back?

I think Jumblatt is more worried about his personal safety than about the safety of his people.

[Doha]

6:01pm The opposition asked the Progressive Socialist Party in Hasbaya Province to surrender its centers peacefully .

they're freakin' acting like they're really staging a coup over the country.

when arslan blasted march 14 two days ago extolling HA, he didn't know that HA and the opposition had a plan to attack the jabal; he followed orders to hold a press conference to talk nonesense probably thinking that the conflict will take place in the north, beirut and the bekaa. and now when the chouf is under fire, he's crying to the opposition, who are his freakin' allies, to stop the fire. what an idiot!!! HA et al. will go as far so they would not appear capitulating to the Army.

if the Army is not doing its job to protect the citizens in their homes, then it's sad because HA et al are the ones who are not giving in to that vital state institution which is the last thread that is seemingly keeping this sad place together.

[Charlie]

Doha,

"they're freakin' acting like they're really staging a coup over the country. "

They are not acting, THEY ARE DOING IT..
That is what we have been saying for days, M14 focus on the political side and dismissing of the Military side has been a fatal mistake. This big lie called the Army needs to cease to exist.

Wake up people the Civil War never ended, and today it is just resuming.

[Doha]

Al Arabiya says that the Shia areas in the Chouf are far from where they are staging their fights and throwing their rockets in the Aley area.

[maverick]

Vox et al,
Look, every druze i know,and thats alot cos i am one ,is cursing Joumblatt right now for his passive stance. The thing is,Joumblatt is playing Realpolitik...yes, his people have to suffer under the barrage and the aggression, but its a minimal defeat compared to a major political victory.Those who have a grasp of politics know that Hizbo is bieng stripped off every credibility that they possess along with their decietful proclaimed " Reason D'etre" and that its declining by the minute.Beirut suffered the same thing and it will continue until they get full domination and control. Joumblatt and Harriri have absorbed the attacks, Im hoping Geagea follows suit, if the goons reach East of Beirut.

[Charlie]

Maverick,

So after they absorb the attack and then what, how are they going to achieve that major political victory?

[Doha]

jumblatt just asked his people even in hasbaya and rashaya to help the Army fulfill their mission and asked HA to hlep the Army fulfill their mission.

maverick, i know that when you're being attacked in your home, no politician can help stop the anger and the reactions to these actions. we're praying that the jabal stays as beautiful as we always love it to be.

[Bad Vilbel]

I still don't understand why you guys seem to think that HA CARES that "they've been exposed".

It's not like they were looking for some kind of pat on the back or international recognition in the first place.

* The rest of the world qualifies HA as a terror organization
* 75% of the Leb. populace knows HA is a militia.
* HA doesn't give a hoot what you or anyone else thinks of them.

So why, prey tell, are we to take solace in the fact that they've been "exposed"? Enough with that retarded logic already.

[Bad Vilbel]

7:02pm Arab Foreign Ministers assigned Secretary General Amr Moussa to head to Beirut to discuss a settlement. (Naharnet)

Who didn't see this coming, please raise your hand!!
Right on cue, we get Amro and his "settlement", just as I predicted.
Next step will be a few days of pretend "talks" followed by "HA pulls its gunmen and in return M14 elects Suleiman and agrees to the unity gvt."

[Min Canada]

There is no victory now. Let us be very frank. HA is winning this battle hands down. No one is prepared and least of all any Lebanese, to take them on. Any attempt to fight back is suicide and no one should ask their partisans to commit suicide.

There is no win here for Lebanon. We have lost the battle and HA effectively rules now. I honestly think the Gov should resign and M14 should move to the opposition now. Refuse to give the quarum in the house to elect a president and refuse to negotiate or give in anything. There will be no presidency for Suleyman. That is over. There is no more state in Lebanon and Seniora should not cover for HA by staying in power.

The Gov. resignation should be done now. It will be a pressure on the west and the Arabs to act or lose lebanon. The "support" for the Seniora Gov. is a myth. Words don't work now. There is no more reason for anyone to be a hero. They win, we lose. See you when the next war starts.

[Jay]

It's hard to phantom what's taking place. First Jumblatt say let them march thru Beirut unchallenged, then look what's taking place in the mountains. For crying out loud, these thugs are even using heavy artillery against densely populated civilian areas.

I mean what's next, Christian areas? Difficult to comprehend what these megalomaniac thugs are accomplishing with this rampage.

[maverick]

Short term loss for a long term gain,....how else are u going to confront Hizbo....nobody said it was going to be easy, but in the long run, you have an isolated, armed and hostile entity with the whole world witnessing the unveiling of Hibos true intentions. This is a last stand, a cry out from hizbo before it heads to oblivion. Joumblatt knew this all along,there is something much larger looming behind the scenes.Here you have innocent victims bieng targetted while Hariri and Joumblatt call on their people to avoid confrontation. There is no way,they would have let this happen if there wasnt something of a broader long term political victory. It might not be that obvious right now,but when the smoke clears, somethings got to give...His persistent calling for non confrontation and his faith in the army is not a cry for help, that is not Joumblatt, and his own community knows this.There is something more to it.

[Bad Vilbel]

Lot of good it did for Hamas to be "exposed" when it took over Gaza.
I still don't understand this "let them have it today, we'll be back tomorrow."

[Doha]

maverick, in another blog (Lebanese Political Journal), there's talk that people from dahieh are closing their shops and heading home because the fighting is getting close to them and they're saying that druze fighters are going down the hills to attack dahieh. they're crying, "dahieh is next!" HOW TRUE IS THAT? jumblatt just said that people in the jabal don't have heavy artillery, just their personal guns as they protect their homes and families.

[Lemon]

M14 could achive a political victory if it knew how to capitalize on HA brutality in the media. But if they were not like children compared to Hezbollah's propaganda machinery, this coup attempt would never have been possible in the first place.

[bint ras-beyrouth]

Is this not a well-orchestrated military coup here? The army command is so obviously a party to this shameful muscle flexing that it would be naive not to point fingers at them (and fingers are pretty much all the scary weapons we have anyway). There is no justifiable argument (none, not one) as to why the supposed embodiement of law and order in an independent democratic nation both refused to stop a paramilitary assault on civilians; and subsequently - and with such awesome contempt - reversed the legitimate decisions made by the legitimate government (the one that pays their salaries, I believe).

I'm too full of anger to grasp much more than this but I have to say that Min Canada's "broader picture" is starting to make perfect sense to me - tieying a lot of loose ends in the topsy-turvy irreality that is Lebanon.

Whether we like it or not, whether we've been exiled or not, we're all in this together. And thanks for providing a forum for intelligent (and sometimes really, really rude) discussions.

[Bad Vilbel]

Well said, bint ras-beyrouth.

[maverick]

Doha...do u seriously think Dahieh is left defenceless in the face of crazed druze militiamen descending from the mountains on horses with horns on their heads???????????????? hahaha....ahhh if only i wasnt so tense, i would have fallen off my chair laughing.
The opposition keeps spinning BS, theyve been doing it for 3 years, infact thats the only thing theyve been productive about.They accuse the FM and PSP of bieng armed to the teeth, and blame the government for the deaths in the last five days...what do you expect?
Joumblatt just said on LBC, to Nasrallah to keep personal issues aside and leave the citizens of the Jabal...
And this, Hizbollah gunmen threaten Al-Arabiya cameras to be shut off in the jabal region....Maybe they dont want the Syrian population to see this?

[Doha]

reports that fire is back on in tripoli. we're all so angry here, watching the jabal being handed to arslan, watching lebanon fall in the hands of HA, watching that march 14 was not prepared to defend the people after they backed them, watching the arab world not flinching for us.

yes, the arabs as usual will leave us kill each other. what is amr moussa going to do here in lebanon, or that qatari official who's accompanying him? syria just refused a proposal to send arab deterrent forces. bloody!!!!!

our homes, while we're away in the ghirbe, are being attacked and are in risk. we're denied access through the airport. so sad!!!!

[Jay]

It's a dark and lonely hour indeed when your leaders stop making any rational sense and the army you look for to guard your basic rights as a citizen is oblivious to act.

I wonder who sunk to new lows out of this charade, Nasralaha or Suleiman. Both morally-bankrupt and self-serving bigots.

Sadly it's situations like this that make me wish Israel would invade again though this time effectively eliminate this monstrous beast.

[theFool]

Easy guys... it'll all be over soon.
The Opposition has the upper hand. Khalas, its over. Just Remeber who to vote for after the 2 years the Government AND The Opposition made US, the People, go through! You'll have you're say, then.
In the mean time, take note of accountancies.

[Bad Vilbel]

theFool,

You seriously think people will get to VOTE?

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Thanks man, I needed that laugh!

[Min Canada]

At this horrible time that we are going through. I want to stop and thank AK for this island of like minded LEBANESE. Yes we have the odd disagreement and the odd idiot who drops by here, but I feel at home here as if I am sitting at the stairs at AUB discussing events with friends again 25 yrs ago. Thank you all for being here for each other.

We are all in pain. We are all hurt and frustrated and unable to do anything but watch with disbelief. Let us stay calm with each other at least. We are all on the same side here. I am proud to be part of this place and I feel I know each and everyone of you. Courage. We will recover from this. If we don't fall in the trap we will live to fight another day.

[Charlie]

Jay,

"Sadly it's situations like this that make me wish Israel would invade again though this time effectively eliminate this monstrous beast. "

If we are wishing, I would wish for the Lebanese to wake up and fight for their right to exist as a nation.

This sad day is not just the making of HA, Amal and the rest of the Syrian stooge. They all share the blame:

Sfeir, for being a force that stopped M14 from carrying on with removing Lahoud from Baabda in the early days of the Cedar Revolution.

All of M14 leadership including Siniora for lack of any planning or coordination on the ground between their people. For Lack of intel on the upcoming failure of the Army.
Over all failure in preparing for contingencies for a day when HA turn their force inward.

[Charlie]

Naharnet is reporting that Egypt has proposed dispatching troops to disengage the pro-gov and HA fighters. Anyone can confirm from other sources that this is the case?

If this actually materializes, then I can see perhaps some meaning to the way M14 has turned the street over to HA. It will also signal a change in the way Egypt/Saudi are dealing with the Iranian expansion in the Mideast. If it is smoke in mirrors then the deal has actually gone the other way where Lebanon was sold out again to Iran/Syria for some price (peace treaty with Israel, Sadr in Iraq..or some other bag of beans)

[Min Canada]

Ya, all we need is a new Rad'3 coming in through the Masna3 to save us from our selves. No thanks! I'll take HA. Tell the politicians not to DARE put a legitimate face on this. Welcome to Northern Gaza.

[Charlie]

Min Canada,

I am assuming the Syrians will not be invited to this force.
Frankly speaking if such a force doesn't show up, then all the Lebanese better get used to living as a citizen of Welayet al-Faqieh..

[Doha]

Great, hear this: Khaled il Daher from Tripoli, head of the Jama3a il Islamiyya affiliated with March 14, called for a jihadist militia to fight the Iranian force in Lebanon. This is exactly what we were worried about. Sigh! Everything is going to slip out of control!

[Bad Vilbel]

I can't imagine Syria or Israel will accept an Arab force in Lebanon at this point. Don't hold you breath on that one. There is no way in hell Syria is agreeing to Saudi and Egyptian forces right there at their doorstep.
And Israel hasn't agreed to Egyptian forces in Gaza for decades, I can't see they'd be ok with something similar in Lebanon either.

[Charlie]

"Great, hear this: Khaled il Daher from Tripoli, head of the Jama3a il Islamiyya affiliated with March 14, called for a jihadist militia to fight the Iranian force in Lebanon. This is exactly what we were worried about. Sigh! Everything is going to slip out of control!"

Bingo! it didn't take long, did it?

To all who think that M14 better off not fighting, wake up and smell the coffee. For the void that is created by their absence is going to be filled one way or the other.

[Charlie]

BV,

I think if such a force will actually come together, it will be with US coordination and assurances by the participants to Israel.
Israel today announced that they are concerned for having to share a border with Iran at 2 or 3 fronts.

[Bad Vilbel]

A few sunni jihadist types aren't going to turn this thing around guys. Let's face it. How many followers does Khaled Daher have? 3?

[Doha]

I think both March 14 and the Opposition (other than Amal, HA and SSNP, which is happy to plant Assad's photos everywhere they crawl) were taken by surprise at what HA et al are doing. Case in point: Karami denounced what took place in Beirut and Arslan is crying to his allies to stop the battles in the Chouf.

To be honest, the two gov't decisions that broke the camel's back were not related to any shape or form to the Opposition in general; HA is the only party affected by these decisions. So the Opposition now is paying the price for the atrocities taking place under their name.

[Charlie]

Doha,

There is no opposition, there is only Iran/Syria and HA.
These people you list are nothing more than honorary members of this so called opposition.

[tg]

If al queda comes in expect to see the sunni population experience the same fate as the sunnis in Iraq.

I can't believe some idiots are actually asking for help from al queda.

[Abilama]

Michel Suleiman is the last vestige of the Syrian tutelage of Lebanon. He will save us?

[Bad Vilbel]

You're surprised tg?

How many times have i called, on this very blog, the Lebanese people as a whole, imbeciles, idiots, morons, fucktards and other such unflattering names?

This is a country of utter stupidity. A team of circus monkeys would have learned the lesson by now. But no. Not the Lebanese.

[fubar]

B2B - October 31, 2007

Jumblatt: Lebanese army will not intervene in case of coup
The Lebanese army would not intervene if the Hizbullah-led "opposition" invaded the government building to overthrow Fouad Siniora's cabinet, Walid Jumblatt told Aljazeera yesterday, quoting a letter he said he received from an army general. "This implies a coup d'etat and a great catastrophy," he said. Jumblatt added that he asked army commander Michel Suleiman not to assume neutrality if riots broke out following a "presidential vacuum".

Jumblatt warned of a coup by Hizbullah, which he said was close to storming the government Serail on January 23rd had it not been to intervention by Arab countries and even Iran, which was concerned that a civil war would hurt its interests in the south. He described Hassan Nasrallah as a tool for a greater project, who cannot detach himself from the Assad regime and from his financial and military interests with Iran.

The Druze leader said he didn't mind being accused of being part of the American project, as long as the objective is to protect Lebanon from the Assad regime and the "Persian hegemony".

http://www.beirutbeltway.com/beirutbeltway/2007/10/jumblatt-lebane.html

"If he said he has a letter, you can take it to the bank. It may not be a formal, signed letter. It may be a note of some kind, perhaps unsigned and sent through an intermediary. But if he said he has it, he has it.

Not surprising actually. The Army is as fractured as the general population. There are officers loyal to M14 and those loyal to M8. It does not surprise me at all that those loyal to M14 would be passing information to M14, the same for M8 -- both have an interest in knowing the inside scoop regarding the Army's probable reaction to the events expected to unfold in the next few weeks."

Posted by: fubar | Wednesday, October 31, 2007 at 10:09 PM

***************

Just a reminder to those of you who seem to think that M14 didn't know that the Army would not intervene in this coup.

[Doha]

According to Jumblatt on LBC, the situation in the Jabal is starting to calm down in seems with the Army's control of the area.

[Charlie]

Good point Fubar, and based on that knowledge M14 failed miserably in preparing for an alternative to the Army.

[Abilama]

Ak: I hope your parents are O.K. Too bad they had to flee.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohBqjm6a58k

Choueifat yesterday on OTV