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Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Hariri: no dialogue under Hizbullah's weapons

Future Movement leader Saad Hariri said that there will be no dialogue under the threat of Hizbullah's weapons, and vowed to never surrender to Iran and Syria. He said all sects are depressed over what happened, including the Shias in the south, who saw Hizbullah invade the very homes that welcomed them during Israeli aggression.

He said the army will be held accountable at a later date, adding that "they" will monitor its commitment to maintaining civil peace through the cabinet. He acknowledged that the military failed to protect citizens, adding it was the citizens themselves who ended up defending its unity.

He said any dialogue should have the security of the country and Hizbullah's weapons as a top item. He also said that Hizbullah's monopoly over "war and peace decisions" will no longer be acceptable.

Hariri confirmed that the cabinet will revoke the two decisions, but accused Hizbullah of using it as an excuse to implement a regional plot to take over the country, suggesting that Israel might have given the green light for Hizbullah to move troops across Lebanese territory towards Beirut and the mountain, as part of the Syrian-Israeli negotiations.

Hariri defended his decision not to fight in Beirut, saying that the Future Movement was not founded to carry weapons and conduct wars.

Update. I obviously could not capture everything he said. More here and in the comments section. I'm going away on a business trip, so blogging will be sporadic this week. Thanks to all for reading!

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What do you think Aoun and his followers will do next? Do you think that their "mut'aa" marriage with the hizb is coming to an end? Can he still claim that he represents 70% of the people? Are there any news analyses which discusses Aoun after the blitz?? Thanks

Ace,

I know what idea Aoun offered, and it was indeed appealing at the time. I have no beef with that. But I have to wonder what kind of people ignore every single fact (actions, words, speeches) that contradict that idea. It's pathological with Lebanon.

Don't compare this pathological disorder the Lebanese have to the American electorate. Sure, Obama is running as the candidate of change, but his ACTIONS, his ASSOCIATIONS, and his every little breath is micro-analyzed every day. In a country when someone like Howard Dean can go from front runner to loser on account of a "Yeehaww" you can't compare that to Lebanon where these "leaders" do a lot more than "yeehaw" and no one questions them. And this goes for not just Aoun. Nassrallah is another fine example. So are some of the other tribal zaims.

I have to seriously question the mettle of a people who continue to want to live in denial about things. Let's not kid ourselves, the Lebanese have a serious pathological problem when it comes to this. I am convinced it's a collective form of mass post-traumatic disorder. All the signs are there: paranoia and this way they have for preferring fantastical conspiracy theories rather than admitting any kind of responsibility for their state of affairs, always blaming the bogeyman (Israel) even when it makes no sense. The almost pathological need to pass the buck and claim impotence (the constant repetition that there's some mysterious nebulous "they" that has a plan for Lebanon that we have no control over.

It's ridiculous. If Lebanon was seeing a shrink, i guarantee you it would be diagnosed with some serious disorders and would be comitted.

First time poster - following for a while.
I don't understand Mace's argument comparing the Lebanese Army's inaction to those other situations. One wonders what the Leb Army's role is. It did not get involved fighting Israel (or Syria) so it is not to prevent foreign attacks, and it isn't stopping civil violence, so it is not to preserve an internal monopoly on organized violence. I am left to conclude that the Lebanese Army mainly exists for employment purposes.

If someone (organized, but internal or external) was attacking US, Israeli, or Iranian civilians, I can guarantee their armies would be fully confronting them. That's their job.

Thank you Amir, for explaining my argument in simple words.
Seems pretty obvious, doesn't it?

"If someone (organized, but internal or external) was attacking US, Israeli, or Iranian civilians, I can guarantee their armies would be fully confronting them. That's their job."

Do not be so sure, Amir, if the past is any guide...

During the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the Iranian military did not seriously confront them -- for a number of reasons...and, in fact, some of the Iranian military forces actually changed sides and supported Khomeini who returned to Iran on February 1, 1979.

On Thursday, February 8, 1979, uniformed airmen appeared at Khomeini's home and pledged their allegiance to him. On Friday, February 9, 1979, Homafar air force technicians at Doshan Tappeh Air Base poured out of the mess hall chanting religious slogans in support of Khomeini and attacked the outnumbered pro-Shah officers sent to arrest them. By Saturday, February 10, 1979, the arsenal was opened, and thousands of weapons were distributed to crowds outside the air base.

******
February 11, 1979

In any case, while Bakhtiar waited for Gharabaghi to report to his office, the latter had summoned 27 military commanders to the largest meeting in the history of the Imperial Iranian Armed Forces to consider their options. The picture from the front was dismal. Every commander declared that they no longer could count on their forces to establish order. The best solution was to round up their troops from the streets and retreat back to barracks. Few had any illusions.

After two hours of discussion it was agreed that a communique be issued in which the High Council of the Imperial Iranian Armed Forces would declare their "neutrality" in the political rift. The text was hand written by General Hatam and signed by every officer in the room except for General Shafaqat, Bakhtiar's War Minister, who crossed out his name.

At about 10:20a.m. Gharabaghi telephoned Senator Jaffroudi who had planned to hold a meeting at 4p.m. with Bakhtiar, Gharabaghi, Bazargan and Ayatollah Motahari, at his house. Some have speculated that Bakhtiar was planning to offer his resignation to Bazargan but Amouzegar maintained that this was not the case.

If Senator Jaffroudi's version is true, Gharabaghi had asked him to be put in touch with Bazargan, Khomeini's designated prime minister of the shadow government. The Field Marshal went on to explain the Army's decision to declare its "neutrality" and that all the senior military commanders had endorsed the decision.

"Do you understand the consequences of this decision?" Jaffroudi repeated, angrily. "It means you have surrendered the state. I suggest you contact the Prime Minister immediately. His life is in danger and you are responsible for his safety."

It was half-past-ten when General Gharabaghi rang Bakhtiar and told him the news. It was a hard blow. Everything was lost. The generals had by their actions destroyed the last pillar capable of holding back Khomeini. At 1 p.m., after an hours delay, Amouzegar authorised the radio to play the Army's communique.

For a moment the Prime Minister sat at his desk in front of a late and cold lunch. He had no appetite. A half-bitten green apple lay on a plate. Suddenly machine-gun bullets hit the Prime Minister's office. Amouzegar rang him and asked if he needed a car. "Bakhtiar turned down my offer to come and fetch him," Amouzegar said. "He said that he was leaving soon with his security officers."

In his memoirs, Bakhtiar explained how he calmly took his winter coat and bade farewell with Pari Kalantari, his loyal secretary. As he climbed down the stairs, she asked him if he were coming back. "I will be back," Bakhtiar told her.

Soon afterwards, Bakhtiar vanished. Gharabaghi changed into civilian clothes and left his H.Q. for Jaffroudi's house where after meeting with Bazargan he went into hiding. Both men eventually escaped to Paris. For the others, a worse fate awaited them. Hundreds of other generals and imperial officials believing in Khomeini's mercy would soon be shot by firing squads. At 6p.m. rebels captured the NIRT station. A presenter announced: "This is the Voice of the Revolution!"


http://www.iranian.com/CyrusKadivar/2003/March/37days/

Well well well. Iwee nabadhun I guess LOL. This was a good day folks. Let's see what they come back with after the shillit 7naygil comes and goes tomorrow.

I am really worried about the Arabs messing up the delicate balance that is on the ground today. I wish they wouldn't come honestly.

What many of you have missed in all the speeches today is the unmistakable call to disarm HA. This is no longer something to dicuss later. This is something that needs to be addressed first... or am I reading it wrong?

I didn't have a chance to follow the deeper news today, but I did notice that the US started an air lift to the embassy and that the Jounieh port will reopen.

"I didn't have a chance to follow the deeper news today, but I did notice that the US started an air lift to the embassy and that the Jounieh port will reopen."

And I thought that you never have to read since your sources always gave you the real scoop:-)

Guys, did you read General Sleiman's message to the Army? There it is on NOW Lebanon: http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=42718

Sleiman makes a strong point.

Things have calmed down a bit over the last 24 hours, in the meantime never ending war of rhetoric b/w M14 and M8 has replaced the sounds of bullets and explosions. The AL is sending a delegation of silly guys whose job is to do some PR knowing too well they won't solve anything and in the meantime the army sits out there deployed all over the place ready to "impose" order or so they say, while somewhere in dahieh the next round is being planned and no one is sure where or how it will manifest itself. Hizb got wounded in the chouf mountains, it is probably not sitting very well with the turban heads as we speak...I hope the army is ready to do its job this time or all hell will break lose. M14 leaders just don't realize how close their ideals and aspirations are about to come crashing down if there is a civil conflict because of their misguided policies and wasted opportunities since 2005. They are as responsible about this mess as is the other side.

Yes, Doha. I linked, quoted, and interpreted it on my blog. What do you make of the feelings he expressed? Do any leaders of Lebanon's sectarian factions ever talk like that about the civil war?

Sorry to disappoint you Doha. General Suleimans statement is nothing more than an attempt to justify his incompetence and inability to perform his job.

When the situation is very delicate and if the army is not well trained and disciplined then that is a failure isn't it? Yet no one expected them to jusy mount attacks with their guns blazing. Their duty is to stop illegal activities and to protect the state. The single most fundamental principle for a state is to have a monopoly over violence. In that regard the army could have interfered promptly but diplomatically to keep both parties separated and to take into custody any of the combatants that insists on flaunting the law. Furthermore the army has at times even taken sides by actually aiding the hooligans and terrorists.

General Suleiman can write meaningless emotional letters to disguise the fact that the LAF has failed to perform its duty when it was asked to do so.

On a slightly different vain, I have no idea of why does Lebanon need these huge expenditures on a regular army. I imagine that a well trained ISF can perform all the functions performed by the Lebanese Army which are ultimately internal security. And please l;et us not forget that the head of the Armed Forces in Lebanon is NOT expected to act as if he heads a fourth and separate branch of government. Discipline implies civilian control by the executive branch.

Let me repeat it again, peace at any price is no peace at all. It would be a grave mistake to appoint General Suleiman to the Presidency. Isn't it ironic that the indivdual who is to be sworn to protect the constitution is appointed unconstitutionally. If he really does have any respect for the law of the land then he should withdraw his name from consideration instead of all his pandering . He has campaigned for the job more vigoursly than most by sending these signals to "Sister Syria" that is led by that great democrat Bashar and has turned a blind eye to the constant violations committed by HA in violation of Lebanese law and International resolutions.

Odds are that the man will be appointed to the presidency and that will be a moral failure on our part as concerned citizens. If we accept an unconstitutional appointment , and probably we would, then that will be another signal that our interest in creating a modern state is not genuine. If we do not like what has been transpiring for the past 60 years then more of the same is not the answer. We have to have a revolution that will survive for more than 48 hours this time around.

Ghassan,

Thank you! You and I are in agreement about this 100%.
Suleiman has utterly failed at the one job he is being paid to do. End of story. I still don't understand why people are trying to make some kind of excuses for him here.

I usually hate conspiracy theories especially when the word Israel is in it as usual in the middle east.

Still, we have to note that there is something very strange in what is happening in lebanon these days and the international comunity raises many questions.

Where the hell is the security council, France the US...I didn't expect them to send troops in 2 days but still would have expecetd LOUD comdemenations. NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!! may be they have no TV and we should send them a letter informing them...Ban Ki Moon didn't say a word nor did Sarkozy, Bush briefly mentionned that Sanioura was a good guy, a poor good guy may be he should have said. Where is Welch???????? everytime someone farted in Lebanon he made a declaration, where is he NOW????????????? Sission went to visit Berri...is that a joke, didn't they see Berri gangsters burning beirut?????????? I would remind the US administration that Hezbollah is supposed to be a terrorist organizations and they supposedly don't talk to terrorists. Berri prooved on the battlefield that his boys are now a brigade of hezbollah, the one enetitled to do the dirty work to preserves the divinities. And Sisson pays a visit and makes no declration on the behavior of amal gangsters...

And the point Saad made actually made some sense, hezbollah made some military moves from bekaa and south towards beirut and chouf in a very visible manner...where the fuck were the Israeli planes supposedly hunting them minute by minute???

May be a deal was cut to leave Lebanon in control of Syria and Iran as part of a bigger regional deal. Muqtada Sadr has gone quiet in Iraq lately...The Isareli negotations between Syria and Israel are going on and if they are going on then somthing must be discussed. If the Israelis give back the Golan to Syria would they agree to keep Lebanon as it is now?? certainly not, they prefer to deal with lebanon as one state instead of a state with a state within the state...and how can a state co-exist with hezbollah??? well the whole state has to become under hezballh control.

I hope you guys don't believe in all the muqawama crap, just like Syria hezb would happily cut a deal with the great satan if it suits their own agenda, their own agenda being domination in lebanon...The Israelis felt safer when Syria was in Lebanon...actually things like the 2006 wouldn't have happenned if Syria was there...Israel has trouble fighting hezbollah when hezbollah is a guerilla but once hezb becomes the state it becomes much easier for them which is a guarantee that the hizb cowards won't dare attacking israel anymore...especially if as a political cover to all that mess Israel gives back Shebaa farms...Israel knows that hezb is not like hamas...hamas are fighting for their land so as long as they don't have it all they will fight you, this is why deals or concessions with hamas won't help much...But hezb is a different story, they don't give a shit about jerusalem, they are only fighting for power and shiia dominance, well give them that and they will leave you alone...

Many in Israel have been defending this view for a while but the americans didn't want it, may be they changed their minds...

Am not saying this is what happenned,I hope not... just saying this is a serious possibility

Bush's visit to the Middle East may provide a clue as to the situation on the ground today. Back in January, Bush had made a commitment that there would be a peace deal before the end of his term, in addition to declaring that Iraq would be safer, well it looks like the iranians took that to heart and decided to send him a message. Through its proxies in Iraq, Gaza and now Lebanon they are determined to show the failures of the US in the region, esp. in areas where the US is touting success, places like Lebanon and Iraq. Iran wants to assert itself as an unavoidable party to any peace deal in the region and is pulling all the stops to counter US moves in the region, so much so that it is determined to undermine any possible opportunity for success for the US in the region, including instigating armed conflict in Iraq, Gaza and Lebanon. The iranians want to have their say in any deal that is being cut in the region and they are now flexing their muscles...the moderate arabs know this and are weary about the ever growing influence of Iran in the region and the fact that they now have to deal with it openly. As long as Iran's ambitions continue to be a factor in the region, look for more troubles in those areas where its proxies operate...It is the real source of all the problems.

Suleimna FAILED and is a very confused jerk. Read his letter and analyios of the current situation and of 75/76. The guy does not make any sense.

Also 40 Leb Army officers submitted their resignation to Suleiman, who refused the resignations. ENOUGH SAID.


I am glad there are honorable people left in the army and maybe the jerk finally moved because of that. Who knows?

Many think that Harriri had to play the Israel card (not necessarily because he believes it) to deflect criticism that pro-gov is supported by the U.S. and therefore by extension Israel. Also, that it is a "hidden" message to HA (which was received loud and clear by HA leadership) that by lauching this war, they have lost the "resistance" card and thus played into Israel's trap of "destroying" the resistance (according to HA's own logic) or more precisely "self-destroying" the resistance.

This is more than just the stereotypical Arab mindlessly blaming Israel for anything and everthing. This comment was well thought out

It's not just the leaders of Lebanon that have mental disorders; it's the polity. (And I say this as somebody who has never met an unpleasant Lebanese expat. Lovely people, quite literally all of those I've met -- and I can't say that about any other nationality.) Your country is wracked by internal warfare created by Syria and Iran, and Hezbollah thugs run the streets with both legal and practical immunity . . . and then your President carefully titrates just how much to blame Israel, which would love to have a peaceful, friendly neighbor on its northern border, and ignores that the source of the problem is Iran and the conduit is Syria, the latter of which wants to own every square inch of Lebanon, again...

. . . the few sane voices among you -- BV and Josey, among them -- are entirely marginal.

Take a step back, folks. A nation which needs an army to protect against internal enemies is in serious trouble; one in which the army is unable to do so is in worse trouble; one in which the army is unwilling to try is in even worse trouble . . . and then there's Lebanon, where the army is needed to protect against internal enemies armed and financed by external enemies, is unable to do a damn thing about it and is unwilling to try, but is willing to make boasting and phony announcements that it's going to start doing something Real Soon Now.

Honest, I wish the non-Hezzbollah Lebanese well (the Iranian/Syrian catamites are another story), but as I've been writing over at Jerry Pournelle's website, I think you're doomed.

Wish it weren't so, honest.

Fyziad,

I think you're raising very interesting points, but I would observe the following:

First, your comparison between HA and Hamas is not without merit. In fact, HA is as determined as Hamas because they also believe they are fighting for their own land. Many in HA genuinely believe (and not without reason) that if it wasn't for the resistance, Israel would be building illegal settlements in Lebanon much like what is happening in the West Bank for the simple reason that they have lived this reality between 1978 and 2000.

Second, rest assured that if a deal was made with Syria, it was also made with Israel; i.e., a return to pre-2000 map with Israel south of the Litani and Syrian taking the rest. However, there is a new reality that such an agreement has not taken into account: the rise of al-qaeda affiliated militant groups that will see Syrian/Iranian domination in Lebanon as a call to action.

Joel R: many/most Lebanese would find your “Israel peace loving nation” comment very hard to swallow having lived through the devastation of three invasions and about 20 years of occupation. Also, Harriri is not the President.

That summarizes all what is wrong in this country:

"Khreis: Let us put what happened behind us and start new phase"

Geagea press conference, after meeting with the Arab delegation. I'm no big fan of Geagea, but the comments are pretty telling:

Begin quote:

"Geagea: There is a priority which we have to take into consideration, and that is … Hezbollah’s relation with the Lebanese government. Where are its limits? … Where can it function?
Geagea: Regarding the two cabinet decisions, the cabinet handed them over to the Army Command, and the army issued a statement. It said that it would keep Brigadier General Wafiq Chouqair in his position … This is over, so why are people still opening the issue?
Geagea: We opened the issue with the UN because of resolutions 1559 and 1701.
Geagea: Speaker Nabih Berri cannot limit dialogue to the national-unity government and electoral law … If they want to limit the dialogue to their concerns, we will not attend. There are our concerns … what of the 70 people who died? What of the weapons in the streets?"

End Quote.

It certainly appears that HA's weapons are still on the table. Or at the very least, a clearer definition of HA's role vis a via the Lebanese state and its institutions.
This harkens back to what Jumblatt said about "coexisting" with the Resistance, back when the fighting first started.

It seems that M14 is at the very least insisting on DEFINING a clear set of "rules" as to how HA should coexist with the state (if it is to do so at all).

BV
The whole premise of allowing HA to hold weapons , flaunt the law, terrorize the innocent and the turn around to offer the a veto power is incredulous. Only in Lebanon. And the beat goes on.

Government just cancelled, revoked, or whatever the heck Hezbollah told them to do, their two decisions that supposedly started this whole mess. And once again they are firing weapons and tracers into the sky celebrating yet another "victory."

I know that, Gus, I'm just trying to look at it from a more realistic perspective as to what is going to happen next, on the ground, as many commenters here have been discussing.

There is no doubt in my mind that M14 and M8 are both complete failures when it comes to the ideals of building a state.

But looking past that, I am seeing that politically speaking, there is some merit to the comments that were made on this blog earlier in the week, regarding these incidents having brought HA's weapons right back onto the negotiating table, in a sense, by laying to rest once and for all the myth of "sacred arms of the Resistance".

What I'm hearing from Geagea today, and Jumblatt before him, in their own politicospeak, is that M14 is looking at this as an opportunity to make HA put all its cards on the table (whether they like it or not), because their cards have been exposed.

Baby steps, i suppose, although I certainly remain very pessimistic that these buffoons have an actual plan that will somehow result in the building of a modern and secular state, somewhere down the line.

The resinding of the two government edicts has set in motion , maybe even etched in concrete, a most dangerous and unacceptable precedent. Government all over the world pass laws that at times meet resistance from the population and eventually such laws get turned over . But what is important is the way such things are achieved. In the civilized world the opposition will campaogn for votes so that in the next electoral elections their representatives will be voted in and will then rescind the policy that was adopted by the previous government. Under some circumstances the opposition might feel so agrieved that they will hold demonstrations and maybe commit civil disobedience by disrupting the functioning of some institutions through peaceful means and by willing to be arrested for such acts.
But hey, what is good for the rest of the world is not good for Lebanon. The Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies has transformed himself into the assistant Mafia Don. His hebchmen were ordered to go on a rampage of shooting, killing, terrorizing innocent civilians and he describes these acts in a matter of fact manner as being civil disobedience. These acts are nothing short of a military coup and resemble more gang turf wars than responsible political party policy.
Yet what do we do when MR. Berri and his protector HA's Nassrallah do not approve of a government policy? Do they hold peaceful demonstrations? Do they wage a major political campaign to win the hearts and minds of the electorate? Hell no, remember this is Lebanon, they express their opposition and displeasure by calling their henchmen to violate every single principal of civil society and then they proclaim that we should pretend that none of this happened and go back to where we were a week ago.
The precedent is set know. If any person or group feel that a certain law is not to their liking all what needs to be done is to hire some goons, take peole hostage and always make sure that youy have the bigger gun. To hell with law and order, civil liberties and institutions. Civilized society has not evolved in the Arab world in general and obviously not in Lebanon. To make things worst our other elected officials, the majority that is in control of the government, its resources and policies became complicit in this great tragedy. They have acquiesed with the goons, as if they do not know that once take an outlaw as your partner then you become an outlaw but he does not become a law abiding citizen. What a shame, how could we behave with such total disregard to principals? There is only one solution. We need a real, true grass roots revolution that will create a "New Lebanon" from the ashes of the present.

Ak
Can you please come back now and post something? anything?

Ghassan,

I know all that. The precedent you speak of has been set a long time ago, actually. This isn't the first time.
We both know Lebanon does not understand these basic concepts of democratic discourse that you just explained.
Don't bother. Heh.

You and I can keep repeating these very simple concepts till kingdom come. No one is listening to us. At least no one that matters.

Saniora retracting the two government decisions is not a big concession since they were already the responsibility of the army and the army said it won't implement them. Let's wait and see what he gets for this. If he gets nothing, then it was a bad move.

R,
There is nothing sacred about any law or edict. Let me remind you that the Britsh Labour used to nationalize the steel and coal industry as soon as they are elected to govern and then the Conservatives would de nationalize as soon as they get their turn to govern. In this case things are different. To start with the whole network of telecom installed by HA is illegal. So in this case the quarel is not only about the objective of a policy but about the legality of an action. Secondle, and obviously more important, one does not negotiate with outlaws even if they have the bigger gun. I would have hoped that we have matured enough as to have moved at least to the periphery of the Hobbesian jungle.
HA and Beri are still living in the 13th century but unfortunately Mr. Jellyfish is allowing them to draf all of us into that quagmire. We do not have to accept this.

He won't get anything for it. This isn't part of the discussion, it's more of a (albeit lame) fait accompli.

I'm more interested in what's to follow. As pessimistic as I am, I still at least like the fact that the discussion about HA's weapons is no longer in the background to presidential elections and electoral laws.

Let's not forget that HA's weapons is the BIGGEST issue (along with the tribunal) as far as HA is concerned. It was when these weapons were brought to the table that HA started the '06 war. And after that, the weapons were pushed back into the shadows, while HA distracted everyone with new crisis after new crisis (sit-in, government resignation, presidential election, parliamentarian freeze, cabinet veto and electoral law).

While all of the above are important issues, their importance is actually in the eye of the beholder. M14 and the rest of "civil society" might be interested in elections and presidents, but to HA, none of that stuff is that important (since they have their own state). What REALLY matters to them most is their weapons.

The point I am making is that the current events have, in a way, put HA's weapons front and center as the topic of discourse in Lebanon. And this time, there is no hiding them behind "legitimate resistance".

Hezbollah’s homage to other states and independent militias within the state of Lebanon are the obvious problems. In fact, the only “green light” for any kind of military activity should be legislation within the state of Lebanon.

Nevertheless, one reads this kind of trash:
http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=42694

Hariri: “We want to understand how these armed people can move in [Lebanese regions] without the help of Israel.”

Hezbollah moves easily within Lebanon and is determining your tomorrow as easily as the sun rises simply by:
(1)Procuring weapons from other states.
(2)Walking to other neighborhoods with weapons in hand.
(3)Using vehicles to travel and to block ordinary traffic, guns pointed.

No mystery here. These things occur because the majority of Lebanese have done little or nothing to change the situation.

If Israelis choose not to intervene every time someone or something moves in Lebanon that is hardly a conspiracy.

Indeed JAS, indeed.

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