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« Nasrallah knows best | Main | Hizbullah's existential dilemma and how Israel is providing it with a reprieve »

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Chairs for tents

"Evil incarnate" Fouad Siniora will return to haunt the "opposition" as a prime minister of the national unity cabinet. Pro-Iranian and anti-Saudi rag al-Akhbar described the nomination of Siniora as a Saudi-American plot, and wondered in an editorial whether the Doha agreement was still "well" after this nomination.  Amin Gemayel today denied the accusation.

March 14 had named Siniora as a candidate late last night, ending speculations that Saad Hariri himself might head the new cabinet, and drawing criticism and vilification from Aoun and Hizbullah, who both said that naming Siniora will not keep them from participating in the cabinet and moving the opposition to inside the Serail.

During this "confrontation", however, Aoun, Nasrallah and their pro-Syrian pals will likely use chairs provided by taxpayers instead of camping out illegally in public squares.

With citizens celebrating Beirut's "return to life" downtown, the picture looks grim elsewhere in the country, with clashes erupting in mixed neighborhoods between Hizbullah/Amal supporters and Sunni residents. The acting government's ban on motorcycles and mobile demonstrations, may have received the blessings of all parties who have no interests in food delivery, and even Shia clerics, but will unlikely defuse the tension exacerbated by Nasrallah's speech, and by the astonishing absence of a decision banning the use and illegal ownership of fire weapons.  It also strikes me as odd, and perhaps telling of the true nature of the agreement reached between the two parties, that no one is explicitly calling for handing over illegal weapons to the Lebanese army.

With Nasrallah reminding Suleiman and the state not to touch his holy weapons, it is unlikely that this national unity government will take a decision to, say, disarm militias. Lebanese will unfortunately continue to be at the mercy of gunmen who take matters into their hands, at least until Nasrallah gets air-conditioning. 

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This proposed cabinet make up promises to be a sure recipe for inefficiency, ineffectivness, conflict ridden government at every turn. How can it be otherwise? Whenever two groups with totally different interests are placed in charge of a committee/cabinet/institution then that entity will be shredded to pieces.

Ghassan,


...Not only this cabinet but also the ones to come. I do not understand why a losing minority has to "govern"...this must be unique to Lebanon as the Shia and Sunni representation is monopolized by two parties.

The reason the veto power was granted to the HA was because they knew that this cabinet will be a transitional one in every sense of its meaning except its name.

As usual they’ll be playing the ‘next date’ game…Elections 2009!! The nomination of Seniora makes more sense. Besides the fact that it pisses of HA and the village idiot, it put in place an experienced hand with a doctorate in managing stagnation!

The next year will be full of the same rhetoric and I’m afraid of more assassinations and “skirmishes” here and there. The army has been warned that they cannot touch ANY guns that the HA thugs posses! In the meantime people will be “treated” well be the feudal lords and their purses will be loosened! Unfortunately, this is what we have. If there’s a change it is for the unbearable. We need more antidepressants for the people.

Events watch: USA Election, May 2009 elections, Israel political situation (maybe elections)? Iran, Syria, etc...etc…Do you get the picture? These numb nuts do not care about their social and economic infrastructure but are great in analyzing their conspiracy theories. What do we have? STAGNATION…Who’s better than Saniora for this??

Hello

UN resolutions, Taef or Doha agreements...any civilised agreement is meaningless to a terrosist spirit.Their brain is wired into a destructive mode.Their political ideals and goals revolve around destroying and annihilating the other.They are ready to sacrifice their own children for their irrealistic and inhumane goals.Despite sometimes an obvious political agenda, this terrorist trend we are witnessing in Lebanon is similar to that cult of mass suicide...it is even worse it is a culture of mass murder...What are we expecting from the instutionalization of terrorism?

Lebanon, palestine and Iraq are unfortunately the lands where a fierce battle is taking place between terrorism and civilization.If the latter doesn't prevail, the security of the whole world will be jeopardized...

Unfortunately, People like Obama who beleive in the POWER OF DIPLOMACY are not fully aware of one basic truth:
YOU CAN'T NOT NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISTS.fULL STOP

...In these circumstances, one should give the 14 of March credit for appeasing the beast and blocking the disaster...I hope they are palnning for some sort of scenario for the future but if the new cabinet is banking on the cooperation of the HA forget it

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Doha changed absolutely NOTHING. Everything is exactly the way it was a week ago, except there's someone sitting in some chair in Baabda and the tents are gone from Downtown. That's it.

As long as the issue of HA's weapons is not front and center, the rest is useless.

As long as the Lebanese people don't understand the basic concept of majority governance (the point Danny alludes to in his comment), this is all useless.

"YOU CAN'T NOT NEGOTIATE WITH TERRORISTS.fULL STOP" Hmmm. Did you mean to place the double negative? I tend to agree that you either fight them or talk to them, but you can't ignore them. When you simply ignore them you let them grow and give them time to develop their skills and weapons.

Seniora will be an excellent PM fr the new 3ahd. For all of you who think he is a Mamsa7a I beg to differ. He is a very clever and diplomatic master capable of frustratng his foe with a smile. They hate him so much because they can't handle him. With regards to the two last edicts from the Late Gov. He had to test the waers and it was an important move to say we still have 1701 to implement. Allah ykoon ma3oo.

I hate to post something that's not on-topic, but this is something that baffles me, and I thought it was worth sharing. We here all seem to generally see things from the same perspective, even though we often disagree on what is, in the end, smaller details.

But there seems to be a gigantic disconnect between what I find t be "the truth" (relative as it may be to my vantage point) and what I keep reading and hearing from certain segments of the Lebanese populace.

I was reading a story on Now Lebanon about Aoun's latest comments, and happened to read some of the comments. And I was just dumbfounded. This is one of several that are along this same vein:

- begin quote -
"Thank you for everything Michel Aoun. If you give the Lebanese outside Lebanon the rights to vote, I will vote for you or any opposition leader that you will name on and I will even come and live in Lebanon because I know Christians rights are back because of you specially for the Armenians and I am not Armenian. Please someone can tell me how the March 14 got Christians Lebanese rights when they asked to seperate the army in two in those 2 last weeks. All they want is to seperate all the Lebanese and do a civil war worse than Irak. Pro-Americans, shame on you. Thank you!"
- end quote -

Where are these people getting their information from? I mean, sure, I am "biased", but I try to be as objective and based in fact as I can. But THIS? Seriously? There are still people inside and outside Lebanon who believe this narrative? Even after HA's armed invasion of Beirut? Even after all the facts and proof required to form an honest opinion?

And by the tone of this comment, I don't think this person is being intentionally disingenuous, or malicious. This seems to be a true sentiment, which is apparently a lot more common than I expected.

BV - the propaganda all comes from Tayyar, OTV and the FPM forum. These people are like zombies - they literally believe whatever Aoun tells them, and the facts don't matter at all.

Anything that contradicts Aoun is "biased", a "lie" or "hate" - they are also mostly very young and have no concept of the realities of the situation. It's almost like the cults that follow crazy religious leaders - when they tell them to drink the poisoned Kool-Aid, they are happy to gulp it down.

But can someone explain to me how "Christians rights are back because of you specially for the Armenians"?

or how "March 14 asked to seperate the army in two in those 2 last weeks. All they want is to seperate all the Lebanese and do a civil war worse than Irak."

I can't even begin to understand how anyone would believe that. Based on what? I don't think even Tayyar or OTV have made such claims?

I've always understood the whole "M14 is corrupt" argument, for as lame as it was, it was based on a nugget of truth. But this tripe? I just don't get it.

Min Canada,
I am baffled to hear that the performance (or actually lack of performance) of the current cabinet under the leadership of Mr. Saniora connotes a shrewed smart and clever leadership. I shudder to think about what you would consider failure? I only hope that you are not mixing up the evaluation of the man with that of the performance of the government. Jimmy Carter is considered by many to be smart, honest, well meaning, compassionate... but very few are willing to suggest that his tenure was marked by significant accomplishments.
BV
I obviously share your frustration but I am not sure that you want the author of that note to be on your team. It might not be fair to judge an individual on the basis of a few lines but, hell I am going to do it. That guy is a reactionary dino driven only by sectarian ideas. I am willing to bet that the reference about giving the vote to expats is not driven by any democratic ideals but because it is good for the "Christians". Extending the franchise is more often than not used as a code for increasing the power of the Maronites at the ballot box. Have you ever wondered where do they get the number 11 million from? Maybe every person who has ever lived in Lebanon ought to be considered a Lebanese. Can you imagine if that logic is to be used by say GB, Germany and France, then maybe 50% of the US citizens should be given the right to vote in the EU.

Ghassan

Yes, obviously the author of the above comment is looking at this issue from a sectarian point of view, and obviously as a Christian. And as you say, I'm not sure I want people like that on my team (although, we have to accept that if we are to embrace Lebanese of all sorts into a national project, we will need to accept sectarian people into the fold as well, like them or not).

But that wasn't even the gist of my argument. Putting aside the sectarian nature of the comment. What truely baffles me is the narrative itself. The fact that people believe Aoun accomplished something for the Christians in Doha (or elsewhere). What exactly has he accomplished for the Christians? (even if I were to put myself in the sectarian shoes of that author). What exactly are they basing this comment on? It's complete and utter delusion with absolutely NO BASIS in fact.

Like I said, there are some elements in the "opposition" narrative, that, like them or not, are at least based in fact: M14 is made up of corrupt politicians, ok. Jumblatt and Geagea have blood on their hands, ok. The shia community is disenfranchised, ok. The Hariri team is an offshoot/proxy for Saudi/Gulf money, ok.
All those are valid points based in fact. Whether they are relevant to building a modern Lebanon or not is open to debate, but at least they are based in fact.
But here we have a comment (and believe me, there are TONS like it) that is about as based in fact as my claims to be descendant of Napoleon, or claims that we are all controlled by Martians. And i just do not understand how the human mind (on otherwise grown, normal, functional people, with jobs, families, etc) can disregard the laws of physics and common sense, seemingly selectively (when it comes to politics or religion, usually) to embrace narratives that make absolutely no sense.

BV,

Most likely it is written by a dodo egg!! Likewise I do not understand how can a site such as Manar or OTV out and out lie with no qualms about journalistic integrity! I mean in this day and age...Sorry I erred, I remember how the orangettes "forgave" Aoun last January for passing off the doctored picture as geniune!!!

You cannot reason with people who have no concept of right or wrong...If you do not agree with their views (as stupid and pathetic they may be), voila you are a conspirator and a traitor and and and...

This 'Tayyar cult' brainwashing is a HUGE problem. Even if the Government 'turned good' these sheeple ain't for changing. Summer in Lebanon? With a family full of orangebutts I would have to stay drunk in Marillionlb's bar to stay sane..

In other news:
(Naharnet) 9:26pm Geagea said if the opposition wants a consensus premier then speaker Berri should resign because he is not a consensus Speaker but a confrontation leader.

Score one for Geagea. An excellent point that doesn't get made often enough. Why is it that Berri's post is never questioned, but any post M14 goes must include "consensus" and "veto power"?

I'd like M14 to have "veto power" in the parliament on any measures Berri might come up with. It's only fair!

PS: And as usual, celebratory gunfire ensues, after the nomination of Saniora. This time, from Future supporters, no doubt. When will this barbaric practice cease? I want to see some arrests already!

BV, I told you I love Geagea. He speaks so bluntly and effeciantly bala akil Khara.

Ghassan, fhamni ya habibi. This new gov. Like the one before, is not given any hope of solvingany major issues. We all agree on that. The 11 will act as a stone wall to all major decisions. In the previous Gov., the same problem existed and when the majority did force their rights, the HA guys left and no decisins were possible of any significance after that.

So when you judge the tenure of Seniora, you can't do it in a vaccuum. He never was given a chance to rule as an executive and he will not be given a chance now either. They want to burn Saad and feel that with his youth they can sway him or trap him. They are not going to get a chance. Seniora knows their games very well and can play them better than they can. That is why I rejoice at his nomination.

Re- the sactarian comments, who was that? Sydney?

Min Canada,
Some of the readers of this blog must be cursing multitasking, as I am doing my other work I keep double checking on what is going on at B2B:-)
You are entitled to your opinion but real Statesmen rise above the obstacles and find a way to rule. Not so for Saniora. Explaining his total ineffectivness, along with all his cabinet, by blaming it on HA is exactly the point. He /they have allowed HA to do whatever they please whenever they will. He has tried but failed.

BV

Check this comment at Abu Muqwuama. The twisted and terrifying logic of this person is mindbogling ... just hope not many think like him/her

" The recent operation in Lebanon was just that, a demonstration. SOme bad things happened, but not very much compared to downtown Mogadishu on any wekend. Or for that sake Lyon, on a bad night. The difference was the show of force, wich was after all quite interesting from a prof. and aesthetic pov, no? I mean, it was well done, you gotta give them that.? "

Can it get worst?

http://abumuqawama.blogspot.com/2008/05/nasrallahs-dumb-speech.html

Heh. Unfortunately, ramzim, I am pretty sure there are a LOT more people who think that way than most of us would like to believe.

That's what's most discouraging about this.

Most of reasonable folks know that they will disagree with each other. But we also realize that as long as we are dealing with reasonable folks on the other side, there is hope that we might convince them, or for that matter, that they might convince us. This is at the very basis of civilized debate and is the heart of what makes blogging/debating/democracy/free media a useful platform for exchanging ideas.

The problem is, when you're dealing with people who are NOT reasonable (and i use the term here in its most literal sense: the ability to reason and logic in a rational way). Then it makes almost everything we're doing here pretty moot (which is very discouraging). After all, what's the point of blogging/writing/debating/educating if the other party is not at least a bit open to debate?

There's a reason we don't waste time trying to argue or reason with our pets (dogs, cats, fish, etc). It's a waste of time, obviously, because a pet, or an inanimate object, for that matter, are incapable of reason. Sometimes, when reading the above comment, or the one I posted earlier, I wonder if there are enough Lebanese out there that are this devoid of reason, why do we bother at all?

Funny how all the well spoken commentaators share Aoun's dislike.I am as baffled as anyone else by his blinded group of supposedly 'educated" followers. He doesn't have ANYTHING going for him. Feeble sick old grdpa. How old is he? I mean McCain is no youngster either but talk about statesmanship.
The other big argument they like to pull out at every occasion is the "tawteen al falastiniye" always said with veins popping out of their faces.
The big zionist conspiracy of making all our campers citizens and proud and smart Aoun doing his best to stop that?
Can anyone give me a synopsis or link on this issue?

Linda,
It is unfortunate that both sides have agreed to continue exploiting the Palestinian issue for all what it is worth to each sides' selfish political gains.The main argument that is used , again by both sides, is that settlement will deprive the Palestinians from their sacred right of return. Humbug to that. The moral obligation to absorb and settle the Palestinians is totally separate from the right of return. The two are not exclusive. Another issue that is often not dealt with adequately is that there are many things that can be done to improve the lives of the Palestinian refugees short of giving them citizenship and a final thought is the fact that the Palestinian problem should not be solved by the country the smallest countryt in the Arab world i.e. a concerted effort by all the Arab countries could easily reduce tremendously the human suffering of the Palestinian refugees. The following is a link to a brief article of mine on this issue:

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2008/02/palestinians_in_1.php

Yeah that fat hizbo fuck does sweat a lot.

I guess he doesn't do the martyr training program.

I don't think air conditioning is going to do the trick.

It's the living underground with the rats that's making him so touchy.

Ghassan, Linda,

I too laugh my ass off (actually, cringe is the better word) when the Aounists bring up that Tawteen issue. Again, with no basis in fact.

But to Ghassan's point, and I'll take it a step further here. At the risk of being completely NON-PC (or at least as far as political correctness applies in a Lebanese context), i personally think we SHOULD settle the Palestinians if that's what they want.

I know 99% of Lebanese will cringe at that, looking at it with their sectarian glasses on. But me, I look past that. I have never once given a rat's ass about someone's sect, and i don't care if we naturalize 500,000 "sunnis". I see nothing wrong with naturalizing 500,000 LEBANESE (if that's what they want, mind you) and making them a useful part of the society, rather than a burden.

But that's just me.

Having lived in the US for 15 years now, where immigrants are immigrants, regardless of whether they're Chinese, Indian, Mexican or Lebanese, I always found the whole notion that we can't settle the Palestinians because they're Sunni, and it might upset the sectarian balance as repugnant.

Then again, as i said, 99% of the Lebanese out there can't seem to rise above their sectarian feelings, even those who claim to be for a progressive secular Lebanon will still cringe at the idea and start talking about demographics of shia and sunni as soon as you bring this up.

Then again, my ramblings here are clearly nowhere near anything realistic for Lebanon today. So i'll just throw my hat down in Ghassan's camp and say we at least need to stop mistreating the refugees and using them as a political tool, and start affording them the minimum of rights one should afford guests (including rights to work, etc).

BV:

I too have learned something from the generous society we live in. Integration is the only way to assimilate and obtain that successful "melting pot" result. It is amazing to see kids of 1st generation immigrants hispaniques arabs and asians speaking english with no accent while mom and dad can't read or say 2 words in said language. However, this country was built on such flux and the means the US has can in no way be compared to our Lebanese social services. Public schools, and public healthcare in Libnan? so back to Ghassan's view OF "a concerted effort by all the Arab countries" maybe in a perfect world such achievement can be reached by our Arab brethren. Talk about controversial issue...

Hello guys

I would like to tell you that i enjoy each morning reading your thoughtful and insightful comments.

BV
Some people are lazy politically. I mean they rely on a certain political leader to summarize the situation for them and then they repeat the same cliches...

Min Canada
Please don't think of me as somehow sectarian...it was just an exchange of ideas...

Linda,

I don't want to veer too far off topic (which i seem to do a lot lately), but i agree, the resources the US has to offer are much vaster than those of Lebanon. However, if Lebanon were to ever truly be a modern nation, serving as a hub for commerce and technology in the ME (think Dubai, for example), then I see absolutely no reason why an extra 500,000 newly minted citizens (regardless of their origin) couldn't contribute something productive to such an economy, even on our little Lebanese scale.

Palestinians have been mistreated by the Arab government to achieve their own goals. Palestinians who were born in Lebanon should be considered Lebanese citizens. If the government wants to not grandfather in everyone then fine...I can not believe the rationale of their naturalization...WHAT THE HELL DOES THAT HAVE TO DO WITH THEIR RIGHT OF RETURN??? Does that mean that Palestinians in USA, Canada and any Western country has abrogated their right of return because they were born outside AND have another citizenship (living with dignity)? Is that a pre requisite for them to be poor, armed and stateless and living in squalor to qualify for their right??

I think Palestinian leadership is not innocent of their current status either...My opinion is that they'd rather stay as "refugees" so that they qualify for millions of dollars in social assistance from UN and other nations...

Millions of refugees worldwide – over 130 million since the end of World War II – have come under the responsibility of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), which aims to resettle and rehabilitate refugees. On December 8, 1949, the United Nations General Assembly passed Resolution 302, establishing an agency dedicated solely to "direct relief and works programs" for the Palestinian Arab refugees – UNRWA (United Nations Relief Works Agency) – making it a unique body.

UNRWA exists in order to perpetuate, rather than to resolve, the Palestinian refugee issue. No Palestinian has ever lost his or her refugee status. There are hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees and their descendants who are citizens of Jordan, for example – yet as far as UNRWA is concerned they are still refugees, eligible for aid. UNRWA, over the past 60 years, has transformed itself into a central vehicle for the perpetuation of the refugee problem, and into a major obstacle for the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Other nations drive out thousands, even millions of people and there is no refugee problem. Russia did it, Poland and Czechoslovakia did it. Turkey threw out a million Greeks, and Algeria a million Frenchman. Indonesia threw out heaven knows how many Chinese-and no one says a word about refugees.

In 1948 they were 600 000 since when does the status of refugee apply to descendants?


How many Lebanese are refugees from Lebanon? To date more Lebanese live outside Lebanon than in Lebanon itself! Do they qualify for handouts Did they ever rely on handouts?

The UN erred when it created a UN body devoted exclusively to one refugee population and with a modus operandi contradicting that of all other relief institutions. Four steps are required to bring the international approach to the Palestinian refugee issue in line with standard practice on similar situations.

First, UNRWA itself should be dissolved. Second, the services UNRWA currently provides should be transferred to other UN agencies, notably the UNHCR, which have a long experience with such programs. Third, responsibility for normal social services should be turned over to the Palestinian Authority. A large portion of the UNRWA staff should be transferred to that governmental authority. Fourth, donors should use the maximum amount of oversight to ensure transparency and accountability.
UNRWA’s budget has been supported by many countries of which the United States and Western countries have been the largest contributors. In 1990, UNRWA’s annual budget was over $292 million, and by 2000 it had increased to $365 million. Despite this seemingly significant rise, however, actual allocations among the various refugee camps has decreased – compounded by a very high birth rate and burgeoning camp populations. Refugees were discouraged from moving out and had the incentive of being on welfare if they remained.

The issue of palestinian refugees is a political one first and foremost. Everyone uses it as the basis to draw attention away from the real issues especially in Lebanon. The fact is, the palestinian leadership itself has also used the issue for its own propaganda purposes and they really have no interest in seeing the refugees being nationalized or integrated within any society in the arab world. As long as the palestinian leadership is willing to use their refugees as a political tool, the plight of these people will continue to be a problem and as such can be used in the political bargaining process. There is hypocrisy as far as the eye can see on this issue.

Abilama,
I have always viewed your habit of cutting and pasting as an irritant and as a sign of rudeness. Your apologies and promises to stop that silly practice never last for more than 24 hours. But yet I can live with that.
However, I cannot accept the depths that you have fallen to, plagiarism. When you cut and paste without having the decency to reveal the source that you are
stealing your material from then in my eyes ,and I hope in the eyes of every reader ,you have crossed the line by committing an unforgivable sin of attributing to yourself the work of others. Don't you have any decency.

Abilama has been banned many times. The e-mail address he provides is fake. I don't know who and what is behind him. I have asked him repeatedly to quit the practice described above by Ghassan. I don't have time to keep deleting his entries, but I will try.

"The 11 will act as a stone wall to all major decisions."

The first "major decision" will be the Ministers Statement to the Parliament. The "11" will insist on the 'resistance" protection and the others will refuse. This is going to translate to NO Vote of Confidence for the new Government. With no "policy statement" that is approved by the Parliament - what do you want to bet that Hezbollah/Aoun/Berri is going to say this is an "illegal" Government. Back to square one.

About the Tawteen that the orangettes constantly bleat about - this was hardly ever discussed by then until after they were infiltrated with Hezzies in Feb '06 when the famous MOU became the new Constitution and Bible of Lebanon. Aoun manipulates people with "fear" and the Christians are very easy to manipulate. He has probably made a big mistake this time - they are more afraid of his close buddy Nasrallah than they are of Pals locked up in squalid camps.

Yes, Abilama cut and pasted from Jerusalem Post:http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1211872828909&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter

GK and all, I apreciate your integrity. yes cut and paste without showing the reference is a nono even though, it is funny to read Abilama's comments and the reactions generated by all.
I apreciate reading what you say about the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. This is really distateful and shameful of us, the way they are treated. I think, though, that the Lebanese have changed their viewpoints on the palestinians and would rather seem them settled properly but the politicians on all sides are the ones holding the resolution of this issue. I also think that lebanese have gained maturity after 30 years of war and occupation.

These are stupid and refutable accusations. It seems that the "spirit pf conspiracy", so prevalent, has blurred your minds. What plagirism are you talking about?

Palestinian Refugees:

It is said that a few years ago, President Lahoud and Hariri and Batrak Sfeir got an offer of 30 billion USD to absord the Palestinian Refugees. They said no and they weren't Lebanon's problem, the problem is they are and they live in Lebanon.

If I was President Sleiman, I would hold formal talks with Israel,the EU and the US to see what to do with 600k that have lived outside their "homeland".

The Refugees live on Church properties and were supposed to be a temporary thing. The Christian refugees were given citizenship and or scurried out to other nations. However, the Arab World (whatever that means) have use them as weapons to get some kind of something from Israel.

Israel doesn't want them back and the best thing to do is this:

The Palestinians that want back to Israel should have HA escorts to the Israeli border and they can flood Israel back if they have some delusion of recapturing Israel and Quods. The ones that want to fight for it from Lebanese soil are trouble, they will fight the war in and from Lebanon.

That is the best scenario for Lebanon. The Lebanese economy isn't strong enough to handle or require their involvement in it.

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