Can Hizbullah win the battle?

This is unconfirmed, but it looks like Hizbullah's fighters are gaining control of much of the city, and surrounding the residences of some March 14 leaders. Their push towards the city and into downtown Beirut might be a prelude to storming the government Serail. Lebanonfiles.com reported that most of the ministers have already left the government building.

So Hizbullah takes over the capital, then what? The rest of the country? Hizbullah has spent much of the last year farming militias in other areas. Are "East Beirut" and Mount Lebanon next? Anybody who knows the history of the Lebanese civil war knows how impossible it is to win in those places.

So what are their long-term options here? So far, it looks like a stupid show of power. No wonder Jumblatt in his interview today didn't express the need to even fight Nasrallah.

Nasrallah's "resistance" is dead. He walked into the civil war trap. What's left is a bunch of heavily armed people in makeshift tents, taking it out on defenseless civilians. You cannot force the rest of the population to join your eternal fight, or vote for you and your allies in the next election. If you look at the map Jeha published on his site, you'll see how Hizbullah and Amal have been attacking Sunni areas, trying to cleanse mixed Sunni/Shia neighborhood, perhaps clearing a path to downtown Beirut. What will this create? Unity around Hizbullah? Or public anger that has to blow up in their faces, whether today or tomorrow?

Aoun will not save Nasrallah. Nor will his friends in the pro-Syrian camp, or even the poor people who went to Barbir on Wednesday thinking there would be a strike, to find out that the union bosses hadn't bothered to show up, and were replaced by thugs burning tires. Nasrallah didn't even mention their plight in his declaration of war against the state.

Lebanon is an easy target for a militia Hizbullah's size. It won't fight back, except through a few gunmen and leaders with no imagination or might to fight back. The Lebanese army, you say. Rumor on the street says that the army commander said he would refuse to implement a state of emergency. There is no army that can stand against Hizbullah, whether we like to admit this or not. Not because there aren't good men in the army. But because the institution is also governed by the same delicate fabric that makes up the country, and that Hizbullah has been messing with for years. The Shia council, which they hijacked after Shamseddine's death, was used to create a Shia cover.  The anti-Hizbullah Shia voices have been systematically marginalized by the party.

But at the end of the day, there is no divine victory for Nasrallah, even if Beirut falls. You cannot win a war against your own people in the name of resisting an enemy outside your border.

Hizbullah has already lost the battle, even if they win this episode. As for our families, may God protect them.

Comments

[Jay]

Now the claim of not using their weapons internally has fallen, just like every other claim they stood for, resistance, betterment of the Shiites, world hunger, saving the rain forests.... (did I miss any ;)

As Jumblatt implied the Shiite community is as much a hostage to these thugs as the rest of the Lebanese. Just as the Syrians didn't stand a chance when Lebanese, represented by almost all sects, collectively marched in 2005 and kicked them out, maybe it's going to take another Cedar Revolution to get rid of this menace called HA. Though this time with the Shiite sect joining in with the rest of Lebanon to finally work on rebuilding a strong and independent country. Let's just hope it's not going to take another 30 years to marshal a Cedar Revolution 2.0

[Solomon2]

Umm Kais, do you share your husband's assessment?

[Bad Vilbel]

You're delluding yourself Jay.

No one is going to march with these thugs running around. And as i tried to explain in a previous comment a few days ago. Unlike the Syrians, who were foreigners, and who bowed to international pressure (more so than to the cedar crowds), HA is part and parcel of the Lebanese populace. It's not like they can get on their trucks and head out to Iran. And Nassrallah, unlike Bashar in 2005, is not about to back down to international pressure.

You guys need to put the crack pipe down. I'm hearing lots of fantasy theories here that have absolutely no chance in hell in coming to pass.

[ghassan karam]

Even if HA wins a battle or two it will lose the war. And that is the only thing that counts.

[R]

Actually folks, I have written many times and will repeat here about the dangers of the Sunni-Shia war in Lebanon. Hizbulla is pushing towards that and showing Saad that they can break him in Lebanon, which apparently is true. It reveals our stupid government for the bunch of incompetents that they are. As soon as they tried to confront Hizbulla on things that mattered to it, they heard the response loud and clear. It confirms what many of us knew from before, that the country is being run by strategic dimwits.

Unfortunately though, the biggest problem here is the unwillingness and inability of the army to interfere, which is similar to its incompetence in the pre-civil war era... My point - to put it quite blatantly - is that March 14, but in particular, Saad Hariri and more importantly the Sunnis have been severely humiliated and the armed wing(s) of the government stood helpless, complacant or incapable of stopping the rampage. When a Lebanese sect is humiliated that way by another sect - and the state doesn't intervene to protect its citizens, the humiliated sect takes up arms. I fear that the inability and unwillingness of the state's armed wings to prevent the rampage by an armed militia into areas where it is not supported, can only lead those people to want to defend themselves...

The consequences are going to be dire on everyone.

Ghassan, HA will win a battle or ten and may eventually lose the war. That is not what counts now, as that chicken has not yet hatched. What counts is that Lebanon will sink deeper and deeper into the abyss...

[danny]

HA can win a battle but not the WAR

[Jester theFool]

It's a show of strengh, and what a show. I completely disagree, but I feel the government was messing with a powerful, and somewhat patient beast, untill it showed it's claws.

I think The table is going to turn to the opposition. I strongly doubt, tha Hezbollah wants this war to continue. But wanted to make a point. Which in my opinion did, very clearly.

Though, one question still buggs me? What happened to... These Arms Are Not For Internal Use??

[LL]

I am not lebanese so take this with a grain of salt , but i am puzzled by your comments since they seem wishfull thinking.

How Heezballah looses the war if the other side is not willing to combat them? Every dictatorship starts that way under the guns and thuggery and then is too late.

[Solomon2]

"What happened to... These Arms Are Not For Internal Use??"

You didn't listen to Nasrallah yesterday. He never said that Hezbollah was actually employing arms, he only made threats. So by Nasrallah's narrative Hezbollah never broke any promises.

[bassam]

First of all what war!and against whom,let me explain some basic principles,it may help some of you guys understand what is going on,hezbollah is not a group fighting to have a certain roll in this goverment, or any other, hezbollah is there because israel is there and as long as israel will exist hezbollah is there ,israel existed and created by the westerns to rule and steel the middle east,since 1948 and the westerns were able to control every thing,but since 1982,and the whole world is against hezbollah,but to your information israel stopped right there strugling althought managed to have the support of most of the arabic american regimes, but any body could tell me the israeli what did they accomplished since then, and stopp fouling yourself .