Arab League to the rescue

The Arab League has decided to dispatch a ministerial committee headed by Qatar to Lebanon to help resolve the situation, and offered the Lebanese army "logistical assistance" if needed.

Once in Lebanon, this committee will "formulate ideas" and organize dialogue outside Lebanon, possible Qatar.

Looks like Hizbullah will have some time to create more facts on the ground before anything substantial takes place. I was watching a talk show on LBC, they had a Saudi journalist arguing that the regional powers will not allow Iran to gain control over Lebanon, and another US-based analyst saying that the Lebanese are on their own, with no one, especially the US, capable of intervening. They are banking on Hizbullah's "political defeat".

Update. Check this out. Justifying an attack on Siniora and the Serail?

Former Minister Talal Arslan to NTV Television: Siniora is plotting with Israel and foreign embassies against Lebanon’s sovereignty, security and economy. (Now Lebanon)

Comments

[Doha]

arslan should just shut the hell up! wasn't he terrorized enough today?

[Bad Vilbel]

Pretty much exactly as expected.

http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=42310

USS Cole heads back to Lebanon
May 11, 2008
A US warship, which was deployed off Lebanon in February amid concern over Beirut's political crisis, crossed Egypt's Suez Canal on Sunday on its way to the Mediterranean, an official with the canal authority told AFP.
“The USS Cole has crossed the Suez Canal and is headed to the Mediterranean,” the official said, adding he did not know its exact destination.

[Charlie]

Unless I see commitment to some sort of troops by countries that are willing to fight Iran, then all this crap is exercise in bullshit.

[Jay]

The news keep getting more depressing... if this story is true God help us...

"Hezbollah has massed around 10,000 troops for this invasion of the Druze villages along the Beirut-Damascus road.

Reports confirm that the Commander of the Lebanese Army, General Michel Sleiman, who was appointed under there Syrian occupation in 1998, has ordered his troops not to intervene to help the Lebanese population under Terrorist attack."
http://www.cedarsrevolution.net/jtphp/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1601&Itemid=2

[Ron Larson]

Fight for what? I think that many of us "westerners" look at Lebanon and wonder why they expect others to rescue them. From the outside, they seem to allow pretty much anything to happen within their borders. They allowed Hezbollah to build a state within a state. They allowed Hezbollah (and the PLO before them) to drag Lebanon into wars with Israel.

From the outside, it appears that the citizens' allegiances are with their tribe, not the nation. So who in the hell wants to get in the middle of that? Until enough of the citizens decide to be Lebanese first, then there is really no point. Sort of like the old saying "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink".

I don't know what the solution is. Only when you all get tired of the death, fighting, and being the only one forced to do the heavy lifting in the Arab's fight against Israel, will things change.

Perhaps the solution is to (1) disenfranchise the Hezbollah held south and then defend what is left as the new Lebanon. (2) Enter into a peace agreement with Israel, just like Egypt and Jordan have. The fact that you don't have one allows others to force you to be their proxy. A peace agreement will defuse that. (3) Give all of your Pali refugees back to Syria, since them seem to love them so much. They too have brought you nothing but problems. They have not offered you anything, or any reason, to continue to support them. Time to cut your losses and move one. Your very survival is at stake here. Take care of yourself first.

You owe nothing to Hezbollah. Cut them loose. Kick them out. They have brought you nothing but pain and misery. They can build their own little kingdom and watch it fall apart.

In short, it is time to start taking names and kicking ass. For too long you have been paying the price for everyone elses' problems. Either be Lebanese, or leave. You can't tolerate any more of this double-alliance crap.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ron Larsen is right. To the outside world, we do not look like we're worth saving. I still don't understand why folks expect foreign troops to come assist a country that seems incapable of assisting itself in the first place.

And Charlie is also correct. Unless there's a real commitment to go to war (all out war) with Iran and Syria, then all this is an exercise in futility. Dialogue is NOT going to give Iran and Syria any reason to back down. Bullies do not back down through dialogue. Not until someone breaks a chair on their heads.

[Alexis]

Iran is behind all of this. they are sending a message to the US that their attempts at quashing the sadrist movement in Iraq is not going to minimize its impact in the region. by using Hizbollah to undermine the US allies in lebanon, it is making a point that Iran's influence is much broader than they think...Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq and its aliance with Syria. This is nothing more than just the mullahs flexing their muscle in the face of the US and its european allies and Lebanon seems to be the battle ground at this time.

[bint ras-beyrouth]

Ron,
Must be nice to live with such Truthisms, dear. What colour is the sky on your planet again? I'm sure the "Palis" would love to come and visit, I hear there is even running water there and - get this - no war. Or history. Lovely place really: no Injuns, Pakis, Eye-talians or even Eye-rakians.

[Jay]

BV,

Now you sound like the one smoking some crack pipe man. Will and might are not enough to stand up to these thugs. You talk of war and taking them on, though with what? tell me what? People have no weapons to face off this army of thugs. Personal rifles or pistols are no match for HA arsenal.

The grave error of M14 was to rely on the army which shamefully is conspiring with these terrorists. I think the army is fractured or should be if it isn't by now, because it proofed to be fake and disgraceful. There is even news from the mountain region that sometime the army is accompanied by HA fighters or soon after the army is handed control of certain area they're ceding it to HA..

Jumblatt's greatest failure was to trust Suleiman, a cowardly traitor.

[Bad Vilbel]

Jay,

You misunderstood me. I was not talking about the Lebanese people going to war. I was talking about the US/Arabs going to war against Iran/Syria.
What I'm saying is that unless the Arab states and the US are willing to put boots on the ground, and retake the Middle East by force from the likes of HA and Hamas, and their masters, all this song and dance in Lebanon is useless, for the simple reason you just stated: The Lebanese themselves cannot take on a force like HA that is willing to torch the country rather than dialogue.

PS: I don't think Jumblatt ever trusted Suleiman (see the previous entry by AK).

[Charlie]

BV and Ron are right.
The world is not going to bail the Lebanese out if they are not going to take the initiative.
We all know this is part of the Iranian invasion to the Mideast, but that alone is not enough reason for the US or any non-Arab foreign country to put troops on the ground and deal with this mess called Lebanon.

Now, if the Lebanese Army can show some back bone and put up a resemblance of a fight, then that can open the door for a lot of help to come in, internal and external.
But I get people here laughing when I say you don’t need massive armies to put a halt to HA’s advance.

If HA can get 10,000 Lebanese fighting for them and the other side (Christian, Druze and Sunni) can not match that, then M14 cause is not a popular one amongst the Lebanese, then turn over the government to HA/Amal and become the opposition. Let the world then treat Lebanon for the rogue country it is.

M14 being the only one concerned about war and destruction is not doing Lebanon any favors.

[Vox P.]

Hezbollah fighters are massing around the serail.

Fuck non-violence and the moral high grounds. We're handling handling the country to those subanimals on a silver platter.

[Charlie]

Vox P,

What you are witnessing today is the result of M14 spending the last couple of years hanging around with a thumb up their rear end. It also shows if Lebanon is ever to get rid of HA they better come in ready to fight, something bunch of us has been saying that for a while now.

I had expected Harriri not to understand the concept of getting the people ready on the street, but I did expect more from Jumblatt, Geagaa and Gemayel.

[Tom]

Condi Rice has stopped Fuad Siniora from resigning.. is that really a good move?

[Tom]

Also, according to Al Manar
"Progressive Socialist Party members kidnapped three Hezbollah members in the region of Aley in Mount Lebanon and executed two of them with gun fire and cold steel. They dropped their bodies near the Iman Hospital in Aley and they were later taken to the Rassoul Hospital (in Beirut's southern suburb), while the fate of the third Hezbollah member is still unclear.
Hezbollah considers this act as a brutal crime in every meaning of the word, in every implication and its repercussions. This act shoulders Walid Jumblatt personally responsible for the fate of the third brother who is still kidnapped."

Jumblatt's boys looking for blood? The man is an idiot.

[Doha]

Charlie, March 14 is a popular cause, but not that one which required its supporters to carry guns and fight on streets. This is important for us not to forget. When people supported M14 and marched on the streets, it was because of the promise of peace and non-violence, against Syrian tutelage and political assassinations.

On another note, I feel sad for those Lebanese who neither support M8 or M14, they have no one to blame for not protecting them from this assault. The Army in a way stood firm in upholding the neutral position, which cost many their lives and livelihoods, and the government was not able to come up with solutions quickly enough to avoid the irreparable damage that took place in Lebanon right now.

[Jay]

Tom,

Al-Manar is known for fabrications and stretching the truth, part of HA propaganda campaign.

[ghassan karam]

We can spend a lifetime discussing the fact that "Lebanon is a country without any citizens" ( Balad bedoon Sha'ab),that March 14 leadership is incompetent, That the Lebanese political system is bankrupt, that HA is a bunch of theocratic Iranian controlled hooligans and that the LAF is a disgrace. Many of us agree on all the above and even moreso. There is nothing to be gained by rehashing these shortcomings that we have discussed numerous times for years.
Today we are facing a new reality and we have to contribute towards a potential solution. Letr me start this dialogue by exploring one idea. HA and its allies have never sought to be directly in control of the symbols of government. They wanted the majority to form the cabinetbut they wanted to play the major role of calling the shots from behind the scenes. Know that their Storm troops have terrorized Lebanon and acted as conquerors maybe the best policy for March 14 is to change sides. Let HA et al form the cabinet and let March 14 act as the opposition.
It is clear to this observer that HA has taken even its allies by surprise this time. If March 14 had not given them the excuse of ordering the dismantelling of the telecom network and removing Shoukair from the airport then HA would have created another excuse for its very well planned and coordinated coup. The HA troops did not act on the spur of the moment but executed a very detailed plan to grab power. Give them the responsibility that comes with this power, not by abdicating but by becoming the political opposition.
I am not sure that March 14 has has a better choice in the short run. Their incompetence has resulted in the current mess and so maybe if they resign then they can pave the way for a real revolution that will change the political structure of Lebanon. Make no mistake about it, March 14 is not the answer to a modern Lebanon although they are far more preferable to the alternative. A new Lebanon requires fundamental changes that go beyond the superficial. The Lebanese problem has always been a systemic one and unless we work ultimately for systemic changes then all of these fights will be for naught. Who lost Lebanon? We all did, the issue that is facing us is whether we can find a way to redeem ourselves.

[Charlie]

Gus,

In your calculations are seeing the M14 becoming an unarmed opposition?

[Doha]

the problem though ghassan is how can you now negotiate with a group that actually pointed the gun at you and terrorized many Lebanese? are we back to another Taif Agreement moment? maybe, but it seems that Hizbullah can never agree to any solution if it's not a solution on its own terms.

[bad vilbel]

Ghassan,

I agree with the logic of what you propose (and in a sense, it was this same argument I made when I suggested HA be given their partitioned state to govern and see how that works out).

However, this would require HA actually fall into the trap of taking on government. I don't think that is going to happen. I have already stated that HA has no interest in governing (because it bogs them down and detracts from their true goals) and that HA is perfectly happy having a "legitimate" government in place, while it continues to operate where it's most comfortable, in the shadows.

I would look for HA to go back to the shadows as soon as they can insure some sort of "legitimate" face on the future government (whatever form that may be). That's what the Army and Michel Suleiman are all about right now. This whole charade of handing Beirut back to the Army (which is in full cooperation with HA) is about putting on a legit face on the upcoming government of Lebanon (which will be brokered by the Arab League, as I already predicted). Look for Suleiman to come out as president or interim PM or somesuch, as a result of the arab mediation. And we'll be back to square one, with HA operating in the shadows, an incompetent thinly veiled pro-Syrian government in charge, that pretends to be "neutral" to the outside world, so as to avoid any direct retatliation from anyone.

Mark my words on this one. I'm willing wager whatever you deem fit on the upcoming events.

[Vox P.]

"Give them the responsibility that comes with this power"

Ghassan, ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND? What will you say once Hezbkhara eestablishes a dictatorship? Will you find comfort by patronizing disgruntled ex-opposition supporters by telling them 'I told you so'? Fuck intellectual masturbation man, we need victories on the ground right now. The first thing any sane leader would do would be the split the patriotic army units from their pro-syrian commandment, continue the fight and if possible involve any foreign power willing to flatten Hezbollah areas.

[bad vilbel]

Vox P.

That's simply not going to happen though. Be realistic.

[Charlie]

ha ha..judging from the responses comments I see so far, there is only one answer to my question Gus...:-)

[Charlie]

Lets put it this way guys, and unarmed oppostion to a ruling HA has as good a chance as the current Syrian and Iranian oppositions...:-)

So far it seems like BV, Vox P, JW and myself has the right idea, perhaps even Doha is starting to see it our way too, anything else is just acadamic talk that you have no chance in hell turning it to reality..sorry Gus not convinced

[danny]

Ghassan,

I understand that everyone should try to find the sliver of ray through these black clouds. Day be day the situation does not look encouraging. To capitualte totally as you might be suggesting is not an option. Being slaves? You're assuming these lords of the Jungle would behave democratically although their ideology is a totaliarian one? I'm copying my comments from the previous post..
"This all reminds me of 1975. A fight here a fight there; hundreds of broken ceasefires, Arab League (what a joke), then loads of guns arriving...a few months later a massacre here and voila. I think the Druze, Sunnis and the Christians of March 14 have enough trained fighters for the long haul in case of a protracted civil war; but they do not think that irreversible moment has arrived yet. I'm afraid that day might be fast approaching as Iran makes a total effort to take over most of Lebanon...
I guess Hassan's revenge for Muggsy's killing was taking it out on a funeral procession...

We are fast slipping to a total disaster unless Iran is satisfied with the HA conquered autonomous areas. Forget about the "nation" of Lebanon. We soon will here about a renegotiated Taef demand by the HA. Using that as a guise to stay in Lebanon. Time's up for serious talk whether it is worth it...What should have been done in 70's should be done now. Break the fucking sliver of land apart...Either partition or a civil war...

Unless a regional conflict erupts by an attack on Iran unfortunately I do not see a democratic Lebanon...If Lebanese people agree to be enslaved by the Hizb, then what the hell!!

[danny]

Sorry for the typos...I'm too depressed and too drunk!!

[bad vilbel]

Good argument, Danny.

I'm not entirely convinced that HA is after full control over the nation. I don't think even they believe it can be done and HELD. Conquering is one thing. Holding onto a hostile populace of Christians and Sunnis is another.
I think their goal is still that of "state within a state".

The answer? I don't know. I'd be for partition, but I don't see that happening, really. There's just too much rah-rah "Lebanon" for the idea of partition to catch on, be it inside Lebanon, or with the international community.

I don't really see a positive outcome possible in the short term in any realistic scenario you might think of. Better get used to this shitty state of affairs. It's been going on for over 30 years, I don't see that changing anytime soon. At least not until some big change happens regionally (Iran regime falls, or maybe some kind of Israeli-Palestinian settlment, I dunno).

No one is willing to make a go at fixing Lebanon right now. Not outside forces, nor the folks inside Lebanon. You think the Lebanese populace is gonna rise up? They didn't do shit for 30 years under Syrian occupation except get played against each other. Expect more of the same.

The bottom line, for me, personally, is that I'm damn glad I am not in Lebanon, nor am I making plans to ever return. My parents still live there, but not for long, if I can help it. Let the whole damn place go to hell. It deserves it.

[ghassan karam]

OK guys. I expected this kind of response. I am not weded to the ideas in the previous post. As I said , my purpose is to get us away from beating the old horse of I told you so and I knew that this would happen...
I truly think that besides venting and ranting we have to see whether any of us or maybe collectively we can come up with an acceptable way to move forward from where we are.
If resiging is not acceptable (and btw, I do not consider that option capitulation, it is called democracy, you mess up and you pay the price) then are we suggesting that the cabinet in its current form should continue to rule until a new president is elected? If so I hope that ,on purely constitutional grounds, we will agree that General Suleiman is not to be appointed. March 14 has the obligation to see the democratic process through by encouraging an open discussion on the person of the next president and they have to stand their ground by not agreeing to the form of the cabinet prior to the election of the president.(Again on constitutional grounds). May I also suggest that March 14 can make a declaration that its members favour electoral reform and furthermore that the new Chamber will work towards the creation of a non sectarian electoral system in Lebanon. Secularism is to become the order of the day.
I am convinced that the recent events are not an effort by HA to take control of the government (BV seems to be one of the few who shares that point of view with me) . They simply acted before the Thran Mullahs asked them to start a front in Lebanon. I am not trying to relieve the Mullahs of responsibility for their medlling but again I would like to highlight the fact that they did mot have to resort to illicit spying and recrcuiting of saboteurs. Many of us, the Lebanese , were glad to do their bidding and unless we can change that kind of allegiance then we will go no where as a state. We just might be the only Pan Arabists and Pan Islamists left in the world. A country has to be built on something else, we need a national identity and maybe March 14 can forget all their differences and form a truly united national party whose members are Lenavese first but happen to be Maronite, Orthidox, Sunnis, Shias, druz, allawites, protestant etc...

[Doha]

This whole discussion takes us to an important realization: perhaps a democratic regime in Lebanon based on a sectarian-based proportional representation is not working. Have we thought of that? It's a sad reality, but guys, this system is not working. Lebanon is a country surrounded by enemies and a belligerent party that is drenched in arms and a militaristic ideology which even the Army is not willing to confront it (before we had the PLO); that makes a weak democratic state like ours toothless.

I cringe at the thought of partition and I cringe at the thought of carrying arms. But it's clear like the sun now that Hizbullah will not give up its arms even if the Shebaa Farms are returned to Lebanon, and is not hesitant to use it internally if needs be.

If we start fighting amongst each other though, Syria and Israel will be back with their spheres of influence. So we might just have to bid farewell to our Cedar Revolution.

I think any true solution to our ills will be painful but necessary and should be drastic (pick your choice: regime change, new set of political modus operandi (like in a new Taif where most probably HA will carve a large piece of its pie), disarming Hizbullah through taking up arms, or partition). A great menu of choices to pick from, right?

[Vox P.]

HB doesn't have to occupy the country. All they have to do is to force their opponents to step down and to replace them by proxies (Aoun, Arslan, Karami & co). After Beirut and the Shuf, it will be the turn of the Christian heartland and the Sunni North. Hezbollah will then effectively control the country through local puppets.

[bad vilbel]

Ghassan

As much as I usually respect your opinion, I think you're way off here talking about democracy and consequences of democracy. First off, Lebanon was NEVER a democracy. Do not make the mistake of thinking it was. Secondly, do you believe for half a second that a HA controlled Lebanon will allow for "let's have a democratic discussion"? There isn't much democratic discussion going on in Gaza, or Syria, or Tehran, is there?

Your attachment to democratic principles is admirable. But it does NOT apply when you're dealing with non-democratic situations, nay, groups that are outright INCAPABLE of democratic discussion.

The basic pre-requisite for any kind of "discussion" about democracy or anything else of that sort is the parties AGREEING to the principle of discussion.
There is absolutely NO POINT in having any kind of debate if one-side never has any intention to abide by ANYTHING your debate generates.

I understand you're frustrated, and you want to believe that instead of pointing fingers, there's got to be something WE can do or suggest to make things better. Sadly, this is not a Hollywood flick. There just isn't anything any of us can suggest or offer that still fits into "being civilized" and will save Lebanon.

Doha,

In her last comment, hits the nail on the head. We need to accept that the Lebanon we've known, warts and all simply doesn't work. And until a majority of the Lebanese people AND the international community accept that Lebanon is better off not being, we're going to continue being a failed state (like Somalia, that's been failed for decades) and there is absolutely NOTHING you can suggest that's going to change that. Hard to accept I know.

And btw, I am not trying to come across as a defeatist. I am not.
But I am also telling it like it is. Stop living in denial, guys and thinking up "What if" schemes from ivory towers, that have absolutely no chance in hell of coming to pass.

Lebanon is doomed to remain a failure until the world changes (and by that i mean something on the magnitude of the old USSR's demise. Or in this case, a fall of the Iranian regime and/or a permanent settlment to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict Even then, we're looking at 10+ years before the effects of such big changes will push Lebanon in a new direction.

[Charlie]

Gus,

HA doesn’t need to physically be in control of all of Lebanon for them to dictate the country’s decisions and chart its path. Honestly, after what we have seen today, and short of any outside catalyst to change the present formula on the ground, do you really think any movement opposing to HA will be able to change anything through a democratic process? HA has effectively removed the power of civil change from the people and placed in the hand of gunmen. The best the Lebanese can do now is focus on forming a working force to liberate the land, because today HA has re-enforced the fact that Syrian and Iranian soldiers may not be there, but their occupation of Lebanon continues on.

I might sound a bit of a Hawk here, but I lived and seen Lebanese politics for a long while to feel dovish

[Doha]

Unfortunately guys, a solution will be picked by our supposed political leaders and that solution will look like nothing we're proposing here in this forum.

Our political elite is notorious for picking solutions that suit their parochial interests. Case in point: Our Cedar Revolution going sour (Aoun, failed dialogue series, coopting March 8 forces when it would have been better to form a majority gov't and move on with implementing enlightened policies in a post-Syrian influence era, holding elections based on a decrepit electoral system, failing the youth movement that rallied in Lebanon and across the world for the Revolution, and the list continues...)

[Sangaftak]

IMPORTANT UPDATE!!!!!!!!!
Bad Vilbel said: "Mark my words on this one. I'm willing wager whatever you deem fit on the upcoming events."

In those wise words are hidden the solutions to all of the problems of the Lebanese.

He is so wise, and I'm so excited about that, that I'm about to burst.

Would anyone like me to capture myself on video as I burst? I charge 25 cents per peep show.

[Vox P.]

Forget about the 3awn option. That boat has sailed long ago.

[ghassan karam]

I have never claimed that Lebanon was a democracy BV, and you know that( I do not want to go into the archives but I have always been severly critical of the Lebanese social,political and economic structure and I was one of the earliest that asked for Sanioras' head and a revolution against March 14.
Democracy or any ism, is important because a society does not operate in a vacuum. In this case I do not consider the maintenance of the status quo a real victory. That will be a victory over HA but will be a pyrhic one. If we are to resist, fight or work for change then I do want want to go back to what was but I would like to aim at what ought to be.

As tempting as it might be to make the comparisons to Gaza we have also to note that there are many differences. A partition of sorts is not upon us especially with the presence of UNIFIL. I am not sure that HA would accept a partition because a nonpartitioned Lebanon offers them a refuge from Israel while a partition wherby they get the South and part of the Beqa'a will be bombed to smithereen by the Israelis.

In life we do not get to accomplish all what we want but that does not mean that one has to set ones aim very low. Even the concepts of the Declaration of Human Rights rests on the idea that many will not see the day of light but yet we set these rights as goals. A society is no different, we have to recognize that ther are serious constraints to what we may accomplish but yet we aspire to go beyond these limits. I for one, still believe that we are likely to see a resolution of the Lebanese impasse that will contain many elements that will move us forward. The synthesis will not occur if our leaders do not have the courage to stand up for what is right and to demand meaningful change. It is too premature to capitulate to HA and declare them outright victors. We have an opportunity to take advantage of where we are to press our demands on our parties, communities, tribes... to become more accountable and to minimize the downside of the serious reverses that the non-HA forces have suffered. This is not the time to give up but the time to work as hard as possible to salvage as much as possible and then proceed to build on that. You see, if we are to just capitu;ate, then we will have no say in shaping the events and we will have nothing to build upon in the future. We have to keep our heads high and live for another day because the struggle goes on and the dream should never die.

[Vox P.]

Hezbollah will resist nominal sovereignty (unfortunately for us). They can't operate without a scapegoat state on which to pin the blame on, a Christian community to milk, and civilians behind which to hide. Hezbollah is effectively a parasite that is slowly killing his host but won't separate from it.

[bad vilbel]

I agree with all that Gus. i think you misunderstood me. I am simply saying you're sitting here talking about civil debate, and the need for a new system, and all that (which is what we all want). But it's NOT what we're going to get. That's all I'm saying.

Let me put it to you this way: You've just been thrown into a cage with a lion. You're sitting there, telling all who would listen that you intend to come up with ideas to clean up the lion's cage, and a new nutrition plan for the lion, but in the meantime, the lion is mauling you. A lion does not understand reason for the simple reason that the lion is an animal. So you can scream all you want about "democracy" and the need for reason while the lion chews your arm off, it ain't gonna do any good.

You say that those concepts are important because societies don't operate in a vaccum. I agree wholeheartedly. But those concepts become completely obsolete when you're in the jungle. They simply do not apply.

Lastly, let me quote your last paragraph:
"You see, if we are to just capitu;ate, then we will have no say in shaping the events and we will have nothing to build upon in the future. We have to keep our heads high and live for another day because the struggle goes on and the dream should never die."

I'm sorry to inform you, sometimes, even when you DON'T capitulate, you still have no say in future events, because you're dead. You can keep your head up high all you want and keep on dreaming, from your home in the US, it ain't going to do you any good.

Entire generations have come and gone while hoping and dreaming. Your children and their children will still be dreaming and hoping for the "dream".

Great stuff for an intellectual in a safe suburban home (and I say this with no malice, because I count myself in that category as well), but it does the present generation of Lebanese no good whatsoever. I say this because I belong to the 75-90 generation and I thought the same thing back then, and kept on dreaming, and here i am, 20 years later, going through the same motions, and chances are your children and my children will be sitting around in 20 years, talking about how "the dream should never die", while new generations of thugs terrorize our homeland in the name of some new (or maybe the same) causes.

[bad vilbel]

And here's another thing, for those who think the US has something planned:

http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=42286

Hillary Clinton, much like Obama, talking about "using diplomacy" to resolve the situation.
Not that I'm surprised, but it goes to show how much the various players in the US election do NOT understand that situation on the ground.

[Jay]

Call it a far fetched observation but what I find peculiarly interesting is HA's penetration deep into the Chouf mountains. What the heck are they doing up there where there are no Shiite presence or villages.

Could it be that HA is out to control the Mount Lebanon area and thus strengthen its hold from Beirut thru the mountains to Bekaa? Sparing any Christian clashes in Mount Lebanon HA becomes the de facto power on the ground... Does this sound like partitioning to anyone!!!!!!!

[Charlie]

BV,

Good points, I liked your lion analogy, a good one.

[bad vilbel]

Jay,

Astute observation. And yes, to me this looks like HA setting up some sort of informal de facto partition (which I've discussed before at length).

HA is not interested in trying to control the Christian areas (or probably the north. If they can manage a contiguous area of influence (even if it's not a formally partitioned state) that covers the South, the bekaa, and Beirut (and portions of the chouf and the coastline are necessary for that), they'd be all set with their mini fiefdom.

[Andre]

BV your quote below reeks of defeatism and is dangerous:
"And until a majority of the Lebanese people AND the international community accept that Lebanon is better off not being, we're going to continue being a failed state (like Somalia, that's been failed for decades) and there is absolutely NOTHING you can suggest that's going to change that."

How does one sell off his country and just move on without any shame? The country needs responsible leaders that can salvage it, that can provide a solution from the current mess. Yes, no one is perfect and we know that, but there no frickin reason in the world no matter how bad things are to turn one's back on his country or his people...I have news for you, Lebanon will always exist and it is up to you and everyone on here who call themselves lebanese to make a difference. Get off your silly defeatist argument and contribute to making a difference rather than sticking to gloom and doom scenarios. I appreciate Ghassan's ideas, he has an outlook on things and at least is proposing a formula, let's move the debate forward and towards a solution rather than self defeatism no matter how disappointing things look right now.

[Bad Vilbel]

Andre,

I sell off my country because my country sold me off a long time ago. Cut the politically correct crap here. Yeah, I know. The noble thing to do would be for me to say I'd die for my country and that I'll never give up. How romantic!

Well, tell you what. My country and my compatriots robbed me of a large part of my childhood in the 70s and 80s and gave me NOTHING. Absolutely NOTHING. Everything I have today, I had to go get on my own. Give me one good reason why I should give a rat's ass about this godforsaken country of yours. I'm not the least bit ashamed of saying what I'm saying here. I'll tell you what: I'm ashamed to all hell of being born Lebanese.

If anyone should be ashamed, it's the rest of the Lebanese. Those who were responsible for alienating me and thousands like me.

It's all nice and fine to feel patriotic towards a country when the country stands for something. When it's a place that feels like "home" to a people. When the nation stands as a binding between a geographical location and an ideal for how to live together under one roof. But being loyal and patriotic towards something that's never been a nation (contrary to what you might argue) is a waste of my time and an exercise in futility.

[John]

I agree with bad vilbel. Unfortunately I think we've reached the point where partition or divorce is the only workable solution. In fact I think this may be exactly what HA is up to. Nasrallah a while ago stated his wish to create an Islamic nation, and I think he and HA leadership are smart enough to realize that such a nation would not succeed if a large portion of its population is not Shiite. I hate to say it but it appears that HA studied Israel's military and history all too well, and will not repeat the same mistakes. if the rumors are true and HA is indeed purchasing land to connect the Shiite villages and are working to create facts on the ground, is it then too much of a stretch to think that HA is working diligently towards the creation of the Shiite Islamic republic of Lebanon? they already have an airport (and now the port of Beirut), telephone system, a fantastic army, a functioning government etc... maybe I'm smoking something but you never know...

[Bad Vilbel]

Yeah, one has to wonder what those land purchases are all about and how they fit into the overall HA plan.

[Molon Labe]

Curious why you people don't just reach an accomodation with Israel?

[maverick]

Hizbollah state? wouldnt that be unwise strategically? I mean Isreal would have it all too easy, guided missiles on all major facilities,Utilities, roads and bridges, and leadership centres, carpet bomb major cities and towns, heck even blockade it and dominate its air space.....Theres no way Hizbo or Hamas want this. These proxies are parasites to their proclaimed enemy as much as they are to their hosts, parasites need a body, a weak body,were it can enjoy security and have everything that a governemnet has, but live within the blood stream of its host,controlling major arteries. Hizbo, well done you are a mighty fine cancer. The cure to all cancers come from within, you cannot cut off an arm or a leg to save the body from this cancer, so forget about partition, thats ludicrous for both Hizbo and the rest of the Lebanese. The cancer must be fought with the help of external stimulants,(Arab League,UN,West)to cut off anything the cancer feeds on( " The anti-zionist resistence motto" " Al Manar and media outlets,Weapons, reaching the hearts and minds of the main constituency to abandon the cause) and anything the cancer is fed by (Iran/Syria),...When that is achieved, a final showdown by white blood cells( March14 supporters)and perhaps other weaker immune defense systems (The army-If its under the leadership of MS) to cleanse this cancer for good.
Otherwise theres always praying to God for a miracle.