Another stupid "victory"

I wonder how the Arab delegation felt when it was greeted by a resigned minister and a dismissed security official dubbed the “Assad of the airport”. Did it seem OK to them to be received by anti-government figures instead of the country’s legitimate authority? The message Hizbullah tried to communicate was clear: we are now in charge.

The government’s decision today to revoke the decisions will be perceived as victory by Hizbullah. As with other victories claimed by the group, this alleged one cost many Lebanese lives. Nearly 70 people died. And now, more than ever before, the country’s unity and independence seem like far away dreams.

I am not sure if I can find solace in the anti-Hizbullah resistance that this has awakened, specifically what happened in the Jabal, not that I'm not glad someone somewhere checked their advances. The sectarian genie, as some of you put it, is out of the bottle. As a Lebanese Shia, it distresses me that Hizbullah has prevented my family from living at peace with their Sunni and Druze neighbors. My immediate family, once residents of a mixed neighborhood near Choueifat, were forced to flee south after Hizbullah gunmen invaded their neighborhood. They are now refugees in the south, forced to endure the verbal terrorism of Hizbullah supporters, and fearing retaliation and accusations of treason, should it come out that they supported March 14.

In my last conversation with my father, a Shia who hails from the south but grew up in Beirut, he said he didn’t know where to go. Thanks to Hizbullah, anti-Shia sentiments are at an all time high in most non-Shia areas.

Hizbullah, of course, has been investing this to boost resentment towards March 14. In many southern and Bekaa towns, young and old Shias have been brainwashed into believing that Hariri and Jumblatt want to kill them and sell them to the Israelis. Even before these recent events, the amount of anger built up against March 14 was unfathomable. Short of shutting down all Hizbullah media, and banning the militia from political and public life, there is no way out for the Shia community from this web of deceit.

What didn’t help was the army commander’s failure to at least instill a sense of rule of law in that community, which produced some of the hooligans who burned tires and blocked roads. Granted being an army commander and a presidential candidate at the same time is neither normal nor easy. And frankly, March 14 helped put him in that situation, regardless of the man’s true political leanings.

Only after some “40 pro-government officers” submitted their resignations in protest over his alleged “neutrality”, did Suleiman feel compelled to defend his decision to not intervene, and order his troops to use force against violators, something that remains to be seen, given the continued presence of Hizbullah in the city and in other areas.

Going after Suleiman at this point may seem counterproductive. Both Jumblatt and Hariri don’t see any wisdom in doing it. A weakened Suleiman is not in their best interest. On the one hand, rejecting him as a consensus candidate gives Hizbullah more maneuvering power and arguments to continue stalling the election of a president. On the other hand, backing him while the standoff continues also creates complexities, one of them being his inability to move against one of the parties to the alleged consensus—which is what happened last week when he found his hands tied and himself reluctant to upset the wavering and heavily armed “opposition”.

It is safe to say that Suleiman and with him the country has been stuck in Hizbullah’s web of deceit since the “party” lost its traditional theater of operations in the south after the 2006 war. The militia has obstructed everything from the presidential election to economic reform, and the reason is obvious: UNSC 1559 and 1701. Siniora probably does not regret helping putting an end to the people’s suffering in 2006, but there might be a tinge of regret in indirectly helping Hizbullah regroup and re-arm by softening the tone of the resolution. Much to his and the Lebanese people’s dismay, Hizbullah paid everyone back by taking the country and its executive authority hostage.

The options ahead are not many: civil war, partition, or a combination. I don’t believe the Arab League will be successful in its mission. Hizbullah, and I hope I am proven wrong, will continue to occupy downtown Beirut, and remain in control of the airport. March 14 will activate other ports of entry for safer travel, part of what Jumblatt described as “coexistence” with Hizbullah. March 14 might want the issue of Hizbullah’s weapons as first item in any dialogue, but I don’t think they truly believe they can succeed in placing conditions on their use. 

It became clear after the Hariri assassination and the July war that for Lebanon to survive, Hizbullah needs to cease to exist in its current form. Arabs had better spend their time putting pressure on Syria and Iran, and not wasting time sponsoring useless "dialogue" sessions between a militia and the state it’s terrorizing.

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

Good analysis, as usual, AK. And depressing conclusions: Partition or civil war (which I have argued, was just a matter of time either way).

Re: your last paragraph.

If the Arabs truly had the balls to stand up to Syria and Iran, they would've done so by now. So don't hold your breath on that one. The AL is as useless today as it ever was. The pro-western Arab states would rather fight Syria/Iran through Lebanese proxies (much as they did in the 70s, through the PLO, via the Cairo accords). That much is clear. Had it been otherwise, Saudi Arabia and Egypt would have expelled Syria from the League by now, or at the very least, come up with some action plan, rather than cowtowing to the vetos of Qatar and Syria in the latest meeting.

The short of it is, your analysis is spot-on, and there really is no rosy outlook to this situation. Lebanon will continue to suffer for the forseeable future (imo, until at LEAST an Israeli-Arab settlement or a regime change in Iran). All we're doing here is arguing about the details of said suffering. Nothing more.

[ghassan karam]

I have never been a big fan of pointing fingers and I do not intend to start doing this. It is very tempting to go into a lengthy explanation/diatribe of what brought us into this situation but again I will refrain from doing that.
I would like though to make a reference to the past because unfortunately we do not seem to have learned from the past. Any objective, clear minded analysis of what has transpired in Lebanon over say the past decade makes it absolutely clear that so many mistakes have been commited by all sides as to last ten half life times of a uranium atom. March 14 are not blameless but their faults are miniscule when compared to those of HA and the other Syrian lackies. IT has been clear for years, I for one has used this term over a dozen times on these very pages, that there is a major incongruity between HA and the democratic modern Lebanese project.. Democracy implies a bill of rights and so I am not advocating and never did agvocate that HA be irradicated either by force or by law. IF the majority of the citizens vote for an HA kind of an ideology then more power to them. But until that happens it would be folly to placate those who have a bigger gun by making them a partner in that which they are intent on destroying. HA cannot be a partner in the current project and it is a grave mistake to treat it as such.

[L]

The government's capitulation is an actual victory for Hizballah, not only a perceived one. They have demonstrated that they call the shots. What is missing from all the analyses I have seen is the reason for the government rescinding these decisions. What did the gain in return for conceding all power to Hizballah?

[JoseyWales]

If there is ever going to be unity, it will come through partition.

I think that is what Joumblatt and others are finally saying without really calling it partition.

That's what limits on Hezbo action means.

Other than that, refusing to discuss partition by M14 means keeping Lahoud and Berri and Salloukh and Shoukeir.

You can't run anything like that, by keeping obstructionists and people out to kill you.

I am sorry to hear about your folks AK and I wish to God the Shia internal debate on Lebanon and Hezbo could get started ASAP.

[Bad Vilbel]

Josey, bingo!

If you guys recall the discussion we had about 2 weeks ago, where I offered partition as the only viable solution to all out civil war. It's looking more and more like I was on to something.
And I am not the only one who thinks so.

A VERY interesting analysis by Tony Badran (http://beirut2bayside.blogspot.com/2008/05/hezbollahs-third-botched-coup-attempt.html) and be sure to read some additional info from him in the comments section.

The current push to activate the port of Jounieh and the other airport in the North, among other blips on the radar, are of particular interest to me.

And Tony also seems to agree with my earlier comment about M14 (through the speeches of Jumblatt, Hariri, and today Geagea) are now making clear that discussion of HA's weapons is now at the forefront of ANY dialogue.

I don't know what to think really, but reading Tony's analysis sure gave me a little ray of hope. Not hope that Lebanon will emerge back to the way it was, but that we're heading towards partition, and that it's the only way out of this mess, in the long run.

[Vox P.]

Everybody supports Suleiman, but nobody really wants him. I know there's no other choice really, but that's pathetic.

[Bad Vilbel]

AK,

Sorry to hear about your folks. In my haste to ramble on about the rest of your post I overlooked that part. I'm in a similar boat (my parents are in Beirut) and am pretty much set on trying to get them out here as soon as I can. They deserve better than to live their latter years in a shithole that's headed for war, no matter their (or my) love for that country.
Good luck with yours.

[Jay]

AK,

Thanks for the astute analysis and I second the concern for your family and all the Shiites who are really captives to HA's twisted ideology. As I commented on this blog before I truly believe the only hope of dealing with HA is for a second Cedar Revolution, though this time for the Shiite who yearn for a free and sovereign Lebanon to take center stage. Lebanon's new beginning will not commence as long as the Shiites don't participate in its endeavor.

I think M14 over the last 3 years bears some blame as well for failing to reach out or possibly foster moderate Shiites leadership so this community could have an alternative. Thus leaving HA totally unchallenged to do manipulate this community.

For whatever its worth, here my view of things to come. I think HA knows it will not be allowed to succeed by taking over all of Lebanon, so they're settling for the partition option. Their venture deep into the Chouf mountain is no picnic, with the ultimate aim to conquer Mount Lebanon and link their geographically dispersed areas, thus creating a de-facto HA State. The Christian enclave which didn't witness any clashes this time will be what remain of the old Lebanon. For now the Druze seem to have foiled HA's attempt, though on their own their effort won't be enough to deny HA a victory next time.

If my analysis is correct then M14 and all those who stand for free and sovereign Lebanon with all its sects should not sit idle and repeat the same old mantra - calling for a dialogue. Time for dialgoue and Berri's cunnings is way over. It's time to out think HA/Syria/Iran and be ready for the next assault because it's coming, it's not a matter of if but rather of when.

[Jeha]

AK,

I have feared it would come to that. We can only pray for safety; those now rising to Hariri and Joumblat are not all in support of what we gathered around for, on March 14.

And with this cop out, neither is the government. I agree that government actions will only heighten the crisis, and could easily backfire shortly. the trouble is with UNSC 1701; it links 1559 with the border demaracation and the armistice, thus internationalizing the Lebanese issue even further.

[Vox P.]

I was discussing (harshly) with an orangist relative of mine about Aoun’s alliance with Hezbollah. At one point the guy tells me ‘You know I hate the Shia more than you but they are better than the Saudis’…

Privately most people think that a partition is unrealistic, not least because sisterly Syria will accept nothing less than the whole cake. Even if most politicians will not recognize it, there’s a quasi-consensus within the Christian community for some kind of separation, even Aoun’s supporter wish for it (again in private). I know that there are good people everywhere, but frankly, the bulk of the Shia community needs 20 years of Khomeinist rule to clear up its mind a little. Maybe there will be union after the separation, but we can safely predict the death of the Unitarian state.

[Bad Vilbel]

Heh. Funny how a week's time has brought more and more people to this "partition" realization.

You guys were chastising me and JW 2 weeks ago for making exactly these same comments you're making now.

(Sorry. I couldn't resist)

[ghassan karam]

Partition is not in the cards. A defacto partition a la what is present at the moment will probably go on but an actual partition a la say Cyprus will not take place. Do not forget that HA gains from not having a partition since that offers them a larger place to hide,
Come what may Lebanon for the time being is a country with a bleak future thanks not only to HA but also to the gang that couldn't shoot straight. The only way that I know of to describe the present situation is to describe it as a mixture of those that are defiant, HA, and those that are resigned , March 14. Dfiance doesn't have to win if resignation is checked.

[R]

Good analysis AK. Best wishes for your family in these rough times.

[Libanus]

Excellent analysis. Amen!
So, who is going to stand-up to Syria and Iran? If they fall, Hezbollah will crumble. As long as Assad and Ahmadidonkey are still uttering absurdities, Hezb will continue to feel and act strong. They want to turn Lebanon into another Gaza of anarchy.

[danny]

AK,

Firstly, I hope your family is safe and in good health.

Analyzing these events come in different tones. BV, Josey and others who I’ve come to know and admire through this blog offer great insights. Tony Badran’s analysis is bang on as well.
I think that only in Lebanon “traps” get set without much concern about the value of life! March 14 knew very well that HA was going to react violently, however, the total thuggery was an unexpected bonus. When March 14 realized HA’s error they ordered their “troops” to withdraw. The result was a total disaster; a victory for HA. When Jumblat asked his followers to stay home and not fight; he added that we’ll protect our homes. It seems people forgot that part. Jumblat played his con perfectly. If anyone thinks that he ordered his leaders in the Jabal to give in, they are living in another world…

Now we have a situation whereas the HA spokesman’s (hajj hassan khalil) rationale for the conflict was the most ridiculous and “funny” excuse I had heard…

Now they withdraw or rescind the decisions. Who cares? Did anyone think that this government was capable of implementing their decisions? HA miscalculated and although they tried hard to shore up the support of their minnow followers of different sects, they failed miserably.

Sunni: Karami and Hoss were sounding out against what HA did.
Druze: The Arslan/Waham “followers” are gone…Did you guys see the released “prisoners” of HA that were handed over to Arslan?? How pathetic…
Christian: ClAoun…Need I say more.

SSNP: totally destroyed.

Now we are waiting for the next shoe to drop. AK, I am hoping that these events will galvanize and invigorate the Shias to free themselves from these fanatics. My bet is if Berri feels a change of the winds he’ll bolt!! That’s why Jumblat was trying to “boost up” Berri in the past few days…For the Shia to break the HA stranglehold, Amal’s break is necessary at the outset!

As for the Army…There is a need for well dressed soldiers in parades everywhere.

Partition? Already Lebanon is divided!!! HA will nacre accept it because it will expose their cover and most Shias will move to other spaces. Most people do not want to die needlessly.

[Solomon2]

"In many southern and Bekaa towns, young and old Shias have been brainwashed into believing that Hariri and Jumblatt want to kill them and sell them to the Israelis."

Nasrallah said that the 2006 War with Israel wasn't worth it, but he obviously believes the 2008 War with Lebanon is. Let go, AK: the hatred that began with Lebanese hatred of Israel has grown to encompass Lebanese hatred of other Lebanese, and your parents are already within its shadow.

Deny Hezbollah their core aim, killing Israel, and you pull the rug out from under them and allow alternates to grow. Give the Lebanese Shia a way out of the Hezbollah trap.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

wish your parents are fine ..!!
.

[danny]

...One more thing. Iran's has been losing its "battles" everwhere. in Iraq, their dodo, M. Sadr seems to be in constant retreat. In Gaza, their beneficiaries; Hamas, seems to have been contained and muzzled. So they gambled on Lebanon...They LOST...Mark my words! There will be no going back on these events. They woke up the sleeping dog...They lost their Christian (forget about the idiot Aoun), Sunni and Druze covers...
HA I'm sure is celebrating their "victory"...

[Rami]

It seems to me that a temporary partition could be a good thing, at least in the short term. It seems to me that M14 is realizing they have their work cut out for them to prove that their vision of Lebanon is more viable than the alternative. But it begins with the ability to defend the state via the army who's showing in my opinion was an utter disgrace. I was reading a statement on Naharnet by a retired general Wehbe Qatisha who said the following:

Being neutral does not mean not protecting public safety," Qatisha told AFP.

"Who protects ordinary citizens not allied with either side?" he asked. "That is the duty of the army.

"It is sometimes preferable to have half an army that is capable rather than an entire army that is paralyzed."

I couldn't agree more. There is absolutely no way that any type of partnership or governance with Hezbollah acting as a key decision maker will yield results on strengthening the army which is a cornerstone for any form of a viable, independent state. Separation from them and proving to those die-hard Hezb supporters that their culture of unbridled and boundless resistance is a futile failure is the only way they will then choose to come into the fold of the Lebanese state. Otherwise I see no way a load of BS "dialogue" is gonna get us anywhere other than closer to another round of increasingly bitter hostilities which we can all do without.

[maverick]

AK,
Im sorry to hear of that, I believe your parents moving away is an anology of the death of Lebanon...and it really is a shame. Nevertheless,this is not 75, weve come along way since then,even though we still hold onto sectarian reservations in the back of our mind when push comes to shove, istill believe weve progressed substantially. Shiaa and Druze share some villages,towns,classrooms,playgrounds, offices, and embrace each other as "wled l 3am"....and as soon as the smoke clears,I should hope things will get back to normal. I know,for a fact that most druze i speak to after all this are still fuming from the events, but are cautious in their speech trying to maintain a sense of reason and political correctness. " They were Hizbollah Goons, not shiaa"
Would i be dreaming if i demanded Nasrallah to hold him self accountable for these attrocities and apologise to the people of the Lebanon? and for those who commited war crimes by mutilating militiamen turn themselves in to the authorities? For those officers in uniform who stood by while druze mashayekh were shot in the back of the head while giving their weapons to the army, by hizbollah militiamen?
we are nought but pawns, the only thing we have control over is our senses and reason, and hope the tensions clear between the communities.

[Joumana]

I'm really sorry your father feels he doesn't know where to go. This is really unfair to the Shia community and in my opinion HA's worst crime it the wedge they have been deliberately driving between them and the rest of the Lebanese community all these years. It doesn't help that so many casualties of their brainwash (it's the only word, they'll never get their minds back) perpetuate the problem, but I hope there are enough clear-minded people out there to reverse the tendency.

[maverick]

Hizbo cannot exist except as a state within a state, within a weakened host so as to not put their existence in jeopardy. By bieng a state, dont you think theyve given Isreal an easier task?
So im not too sure about partition.
I hate to announce this, but its become a case of "us" or "them".....the clash of ideas is just too contrasted. There is no hiwar, dialogue, or co existance...Hizbo is an existential question and in its true absolutist form...its either a free Lebanon or Hizbollahs state within a state.

[Ace]

I so sorry about your parents AK - please tell them we are all praying for them.

This may seem odd ... but the only "solution" I see is to give in to HA/Aoun on what they "say" they want most. A new election - and let's make it particularly speedy while all the events are very fresh in everyones mind. They will "re-write" history given a little time. IF M14 had the guts to do it ... "give in" to HA on the election with a UN supervised Parliament to decide a new electoral law in a specified length of time - make it short. Wouldn't that just curdle their milk? Who thinks either HA or Aoun could get elected dog catcher outside of Shiite areas? The benefits are great - and (I think) almost guaranteed. New Parliament elects new Speaker (no Berri), elects President (no Aoun, no Suleiman), new PM & Council with a new Ministers statement (no resistance statements) and the beauty is - Nasrallah/Aoun can't really refuse. IF M8 wins this election, then that's the people's choice but I think it's almost impossible that they would. There can never be a better time to hold an election than right this very minute.

M14 would have to set it up with the UN and then make the grand announcement that they are giving the so-called "opposition" a "victory".

[The Perpetual Refugee]

A question for all those who talk (and support partition).

How do you actually see this happening?
Where are the lines drawn?
How do we get a congruous state out of this?
Does that mean that no Shias are allowed within the 'good' side?
After the Shia, who next? Armenians? After all, they voted opposition in the last election. How about the maronites of Rabie. They can be forcefully evicted from their homes and we can have our own version of Zionism. Who will be our Herzl, I wonder.

[Ace]

Aside from the horrific logistics of partition - why does anyone think that Hezbollah is going to be satisfied with only a piece of the pie?

What part of Lebanon do you think he would be willing to give up? It will never work.

[Min Canada]

The idea of partition will not work. Trust me no one will press that no matter what.

It should be clear by now that M14 scoed a good TD by uncovering the other face of the Weapons of HA. Now how to play it? 1710 cannot be implemented by the lebanese. That Should be clear by now. Who has the stomach to implement it?

We are at a stand off and the only thing that has changed, a good thing, is that the HA weapons are no longer a subject that can't be talked about. They are the subject to be addressed. There is no solution to them now. The only thing that can happen is a series of compremises. HA crawls back to the security zones, M14 rules the other zones and everyone else lives in between.
...did I say no partition???

[Andre]

AK,

I am sorry about the plight of your parents, this is exactly what we feared all along, the return of that awful notion of being a refugee in one's own country. I wish them well in this difficult time as well as all of those that are caught in the midst of this madness which was started by a hord of beasts who have no notion of decency and civility. I will say this, these bastards who bow to their masters outside of our borders have done so much damage to everything Lebanon stands for in terms of peaceful coexistence among its sects and have now thrown the doors wide open for an arms race among lebanese, they have also sowed the seeds of divisiveness and hatred between the shias on one side and sunnis and druze on the other, they have in fact isolated their own community and taken it hostage for the benefit of Iran and Syria. It is only fitting that we should all stop legitimizing them as being part of the lebanese fabric and call them for what they truly are, and what the civilized world knows them as: terrorists. Pure and simple.

[abu yussif]

why does everyone talk about reconciliation and coexistance? hizbullah is achieving its objectives one way or another while the rest of lebanon wonders how things will become normal again. why even a lot of their own country is off limits to the majority of lebanese. there's your coexistence.

forget it, lebanon. you welcomed hizbullah to become what they are and now you must suffer the consequences of your choices. ye reap what ye sow.

[Bad Vilbel]

Perpetual Refugee.

Since I've been the proponent of this "partition" scheme, let me try to answer your question. And no, it is not at all the way you describe it or think it is. This is NOT about some sort of ethnic cleansing or anything like that.

The fact of the matter is, we have a DE FACTO partition in place right now. We've already experienced de facto partition in 75-90, and really, it functioned "fine" (so to speak) for 15 years. It's not unheard of.

I'm not talking about a permanent partition, ala two-state solution. What I am talking about is this: Today, HA controls on the ground a piece of the country (The South, Bekaa, and Dahieh, give or take). March 14, or I should say, the official legitimate government of Lebanon has not attempted to assert it's authority on the rest of the country so far. Sure, the HA thugs aren't rampaging in the Chouf or Kesrwan at the moment, but the legitimate government is only marginally effective at building a strong civil society, devoid of sectarianism, and more in line with the modern Lebanon we all have in mind. I'm not saying it can be done right away, but if the government is too weak militarily to impose law and order and disarmement in the HA areas, it should start by formulating a plan for the rest of Lebanon instead of wasting month after month trying to "dialogue" with a group that clearly has no intention of dialoguing (nor is it capable of).

Already, we are seeing signs that M14 is thinking about this: There is talk of activating the port of Jounieh, and the airport in the north. That would give the legit government ports of call that are not under the security thumb of HA. Build on that. Deploy the army in the "New Lebanon" (we'll call it that for the purposes of this discussion), secure it. Appoint officers loyal to Lebanon, on a non-sectarian basis. Start appointing civil servants on a non-sectarian basis. Purge the institutions of disloyal and corrupt people. In the meantime, let HA have their corner, and ignore them. Rather than trying so hard to placate them and engage them.

The gist of my argument is this:
Instead of continuing to coexist with HA and share the government with them - a task that is clearly IMPOSSIBLE - focus on building modern, progressive, democratic state institutions. Try to be as self-reliant as possible.

This, in my mind is not about sects at all. It is HA that has made it about a sect by alienating the Shia to everyone else, basically. And I have stated before that the Shia, as a community, is going to need to take a long hard look at themselves before they figure out whether they want to divest themselves of HA and join the national project or not. This is not something that we (the rest of Lebanon) or any foreign power, can do for them.

I hope that helps answer the question. Obviously, I don't have it all worked out, and I'm an amateur when it comes to this stuff, so for all i know, we're better off going to hell in a handbasket. But from where i stand, it's either that or all out civil war. I've said it before and I'll say it again, you simply cannot FORCIBLY disarm a segment of your population that numbers about 30%, if not more. We're not talking about a Fath Al Islam gang of a few hundred. This is a segment of your population, which, like it or not, really does not believe in the vision you have for Lebanon. This is a segment of your population that has been brainwashed with fear and paranoia. It's a horribly sad state of affairs, but you and I both know it's true. The narrative in that community, is VERY different from the way the rest of us see Lebanon.

I'd be interested in hearing a counter argument if you have one.

[Vodka]

What I do not understand is how a Lebanese who was born and lived all his life in an enviroment of freedom and democracy can be an SSNP or HA follower ?Advocating the return of Syria to Lebanon or accepting the suppresive regime of Iran?
Here is what an SSNP follower wrote after he fled Halba to Syria:"Thanks for all the people that emailed me. I’m safe for now, and can’t wait for this ******** to end. I can’t stand the limitation on Internet activities here in Syria, no facebook and no MFL, no Tantalus nor any blogspot blog for that matter."
Regards
Original Source: Is it Lebanon or Reanda?!! (Details of the Halba Massacre)
http://forum.tayyar.org/f8/halba-massacre-survivors-story-34085/

[Abilama]

It is timely to quote Chrchills speech in The House of Commons after the 1938 Munich Agreement:

"And do not suppose this is the end," he warned. "This is only the beginning of the reckoning. This is only the first sip, the first foretaste of a bitter cup which will be proffered to us year by year unless by a supreme recovery of moral health and martial vigour, we arise again and take our stand for freedom as in olden time."

[Nasroulib]

Did the government had the choice not to take such a decision a week ago? I do not know, a responsible government couldn’t but take it. Where they surprised by the “ampleur” of the riposte, well PM Seniora said it himself. Did they have the choice not to take the decision they did yesterday? I think not.

Look at how lonely they were, no strong Arab initiative, absent European support and faint US motivation, almost absent Lebanese commandment… can they “fight” hizballah alone? NO… do they let it go and harm even more the civil stability in Lebanon? I think they have done the only think a responsible government could have done. Even a resignation, which would have been emotionally an either decision for them, would have been either… but can we imagine in what chaos would have been the country, with no single institution working. They have taken the right decision… and what after?

Who won? Well depend on what? What is sure is that the “free independent Lebanon” lost this battle, yes we did… may be not yet the war, but surely this battle. As surely as Hizb-al-sillah (I refuse like Mouhamad Salam to call it any more Hizb-allah) did loose. They lost credibility, public support and moderate sunnit support; enough to look at Fath al Islam’s today’s call to see what is coming to us. But iran and Syria obviously did not care about that, they are playing a more important stake than the limited Hizb-al-sillah position… they are playing a braoder game; the Shiite revisited position in Lebanon ore Lebanon in itself respectively.

But Lebanon might have not lost the war, yet… by doing this, the government made a critical move that will oblige Hib-al-sillah (and I am not talking about opposition, there is no opposition, there is only Hib-al-sillah) to give something in return, and may be by doing this they will then concentrate their efforts and their supporter’s efforts on more important battles and stakes: Lebanese institutions, relation with Hib-al-sillah’s army, etc. if the government took this courageous step to then reinforce its position in negotiation and indeed i) refusing any discussion without the come back to the status quo (including the sitting in centre ville), ii) refusing any discussion under Berri’s leadership, iii) refusing any discussion on which Hib-al-sillah’s army is not on the agenda and iv) refusing any discussion unless to talk about the complete package including the election law… v) and who knows may be daring to say that Suleiman is no more a neutral person... then if they did this for all that… it might be worth it and we might have won something… hoping that the deal is not already done and the negotiations underway between Iran, Syria and the international community are not over…yet…

I am not so optimistic, but I refuse to be pessimistic. I do believe that Lebanon is not Irak and that lots of people need Lebanon as a stable multi-confession country… I hope I am not mistaken…

[JoseyWales]

Vodka,

How can a Leb be SSNP?

Cuz there are idiots everywhere, like Americans who believe Bush bombed the WTC or my commie classmate of old who thought there was more freedom in the USSR than in the US, but now the fuck lives in the US.

As to your friend/guy who fled Halba, God forgive me, he can eat shit and fucking die for all I care.

[Solomon2]

"What I do not understand is how a Lebanese who was born and lived all his life in an enviroment of freedom and democracy can be an SSNP or HA follower ?"

1) Freedom and democracy have losers and winners. Give the losers a violent alternative and some will take it.

2) Freedom and democracy are great, but if your family is threatened by wolves, you may feel you either (a) have to join the pack, (b) join a competing pack for protection, or (c) flee.

Greater law enforcement, improved ethical teaching at schools, and more just opportunities for people of ability can help those who remain. Those who choose option 2c have an obligation to bring their plight to the world's attention and can ask for its help at making things right once more.

[LebExile]

BV,

Doesn't partition mean that the Shia who are stuck hizbo-land will have to rely further on hizb for their livelihoods... I thought the plan was to get the shia to reject hizbo and rejoin the Lebanese project...

By partition, you will just end up with a large segment of the population who hold Lebanese identity papers saying that their government deserted them and forced them to have to rely on Hizbo...

If that is your arguement, then, why couldn't we allow the SLA to partition off and remain under Israeli occupation??? I'm sure the residents at the time felt safer while some even commuted into Israel for work - there was trade, and they even used the medical facilities in Israel..

What you are saying rather is that you're willing to allow Iran to occupy a part of Lebanon - because it is easier than confronting them... but that is exactly what it is...an Iranian occupation..or did you really think that the shia truly want hizbo so badly...

wake up - the hizb has begun to lose some support from the shia community, and the government should keep chipping away at that support until they are strong enough to take them on, however, this is going to be a long battle.

BTW - I think what the druze achieved in the chouf mountains has been given much less importance than it calls for...
They have shown that hizb can be taken on - and if a few villagers in the mountains can take on the hizb - then the Lebanese army should be able to also - and I think that is why the US is so eager to rush arms to the Leb Army..

but - pleeeeeeeeease - stop with the talk of partition - or just come out and say it - you want Iran to maintain their occupation of my country - because I dont have the stomach to take them on!

[danny]

Leb,

I do not think you understand the rationale of the "partition" argument. Let's call decentralization or setting up autonomous muhafazas with a central government that is there for picture taking purposes...then move ahead with modern, civil and non sectarian state building...
Shias who live anywhere are welcomed to live ANYWHERE. Again in a non sectarian society there is no "sects" division...
We have a defacto division for years...People have to be given the choice. Coexistence with a theocratic and totalitarian party of Hizb el Silah is impossible. It is not simply a clash of cultures or civilizations. It is simply matter of Culture of Life and Death. I am certain that given the choice of freedom and modernity most Lebanese including overwhelming majority of Shias will opt out for the Free One. One thing to remember about Lebanese people, they almost all have relatives (or themselves are) that live in free countries in the west. For God's sakes Mr. Berri is still running his Gas stations in Dearborn.

[Doha]

AK,

Glad your family is safe, but I'm sure they're unhappy where they are right now and long for the return to normalcy. But the question is: is normalcy in the cards for this country after what happened the past few days?

It baffles me how there are Lebanese, my age whom I have so much in common with, have cheered what HA did in Beirut and are busy congratulating each other for winning this time around. I thought to myself: who won? If that's the way Lebanese like me think, then things will never change, thank you very much!

AK, great analysis that highlights a depressing truth. It's just difficult to see what the Lebanese factions can reach through dialogue; there should be no settlement short of disarmament of HA.

Anyways, you talk about partition and mention opening up other ports than the ones in Beirut. I don't know if it's true, but I read on Naharnet that Public Works Minister Safadi ordered the rehabilitation of Jounieh's port a couple of days back.

[Fuziyad]

Lebexile, I say it, I want Iran and Syria to take part of my country as many of my people support them and I don't have the stomach to genocide them...

This is what partition is all about...

[Solomon2]

"Lebexile, I say it, I want Iran and Syria to take part of my country as many of my people support them and I don't have the stomach to genocide them."

If you feed the predator, eventually the predator will feed on you.

[Bad Vilbel]

LebExile,

You're missing my point.
You say:
"By partition, you will just end up with a large segment of the population who hold Lebanese identity papers saying that their government deserted them and forced them to have to rely on Hizbo..."

Isn't that exactly what they already think? That's what i hear day after day from the HA constituency. The government has never done anything for them. The government is corrupt. Only the good Sayyed helps them out. Blahblahblah.

Danny gets it. I'm talking about a sort of autonomy, if you will. The idea is to let the people see how they like it when they're REALLY left to HA's devices. Have that community take a long hard look at itself once and for all. Right now, that community is so intent on being paranoid and blaming EVERYONE ELSE but themselves that they are incapable of seeing anything wrong with HA's actions.

It's all moot anyway. Looking at the headlines today, it seems like my prediction of 2 days ago is exactly correct: The arab initiative will result in the election of Suleiman, and somehow HA gets the "basket" they were looking for, yet make it seem like they've given up something. I'm not sure what to think of this morning's news.

Oh, and FYI: Stop with the silly argument that we're inviting Iran to occupy our land. In case you hadn't noticed THEY ALREADY DO.

[Bad Vilbel]

Check out this beauty:
- begin quote -
The agreement the Arab Ministerial Committee suggested to solve the present crisis includes going to dialogue, formulating a new electoral law, and forming a national-unity government. It also stipulates that the opposition’s sit-in will be removed after the previous points are resolved and after the election of Army Commander General Michel Sleiman.
- end quote -

Where exactly is the compromise there? Is it just me or does that read like HA's demands are being met, each and every single one?

[ghassan karam]

BV/Danny et al,
Words are very important. Language was invented to simplify communicating ideas and make such communication less ambiguous. So for crying out loud dont use the term partition if what you intend is decentralization. I assure you that I am not trying to split hairs. The difference between the above two ideas is huge, In one case you separate and create two authorities and two separate sets of laws while in the other you just ditribute and diffuse what already exists.
When the term separation is used then it carries with it the implication that one is creating at least two of what used to be a unity. So please make up your mind about what you want to support and be clear in your choice of words.

[e]

BV,
What is not clear in the quote is whether the President could be elected before the other issues are resolved. What is clear is that the election of the President does not guarantee the end of the sit-in.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

I think it's pretty obvious that we don't really know what we want. :)

As much as I agree with your notion that words are very important, let's also face the fact that words are cheap and get bandied around (in Lebanon specially) to obfuscate true intent. In a country where all you have to do is say "Zionist" to confuse people, it's very easy to get sidetracked by words.

I specifically used the word "de facto" when talking about partition because that is exactly what we have on our hands today.

You talk about "separate sets of laws, etc." Isn't that what we have already? The laws that barely apply in non-HA areas do not apply AT ALL in HA areas (where HA's own law reigns supreme).

We have, in essence, two distinct vision of Lebanon (as you and others have pointed out before). Two completely distinct sets of laws. Two completely distinct governing bodies, military, etc.
That's what "state within a state" means.

So I really don't see what's wrong with my use of the word "de facto partition". It's already there. I just want to see the M14 side at least start enforcing their laws and reforming the system in the parts of the country where they have a certain degree of autonomy, if you want to call it that.

[Bad Vilbel]

e,

Exactly. Sounds to me like M14 is offering concrete concessions (elect Suleiman, government of unity, new electoral law) and is getting, in return, non-concrete "promises" not to use weapons, and to "dialogue" about the role of the resistance.

Sounds to me like the Arabs have once again pulled a fast one.

[e]

BV,
M14 agreed to negotiate, but I am not sure they agreed to capitulate. I don't think the results of the negotiation are a given. We will have to wait and see.

One thing important that this round of talks does is take the key leaders of March 14 out of harms way without it looking like they are leaving their followers behind. Hizballah will have less pressure on them personally once they are in Doha right near the huge American base.

(Would someone care to explain to me why Qatar, a US protectorate with excellent ties with Israel, is considered neutral relative to Saudi Arabia? )

[Bad Vilbel]

This may be a bit off topic, but I'm extremely confused when it comes to Qatar. On one hand, as you said, it has good ties with Israel and the US. And on the other hand, it's home to Al Jazeera, and seems to be firmly in the Syrian/Iranian camp of the Arab divide.

What's going on there?

[Meghwar]

Ak,

Sorry to hear about your family, May God be with them and protect them...

I am not stetting foot back again in lebanon, I have family too there, I will try to bring them out of that shithole....

Ghassan,

Who cares anymore, Partition or decentralization???
It is the same sh...as far as those Iranian mercenaries "Hizbtz" are concerned... The sooner we corner them in their own "Faqihi" state the better for the rest of Lebanon in general...and the Shiaa in specific ...maybe just maybe most of them will wake up from their "victories" anesthesia and Nassnass “promises” to their bleak and DOA future, hence they can themselves fight against those barbarians!
I agree with BV, AK and JW, They should SWALLOW the bitter pill to get HEALTHY again !

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

One more thing vis a vis "partition" (or whatever you want to call it). I want to point out that we've had this happen before in Lebanon, with the Christians in the Christian "enclave" of 75-90.
I believe it was a necessary pain the Christian community had to go through to understand they couldn't, in the end, go at it alone, and that their best interest lay in gunning for a progressive and modern Lebanon, alongside the other sects.
I also believe the sunnis went through this as well, realizing they couldn't go at it alone, on the back of foreign powers (the PLO, back then).
The shia community has not gone through this "trial by fire" yet, if you will. And i don't think it can mature past its current hangups until it does go through some kind of experience where it's left to its own devices, and works its own paranoia out before realizing it needs the other communities to survive.

[Meghwar]

BV,

Qatar is with Iran/Syria to annoy and act against Saudi ARABIA, kinda wants to have a bigger part in the Gulf politics/Council/ financial decisions etc, actually Al-Jazeera was precisely established to be a thorn in the Saudi "eye" or " side" you choose, and that is why al Arabieh saw the "ether" waves later to counter weight Jazeera, it was always kinda Hate/love...between these 2 neighbors....until recently it was Hate / hate ...a coupla weeks ago I read that the relations are getting better...who knows ? Maybe KSA wanted Qatar to Take over, in Lebanon, and fill for them? Considering that HA Has no qualms dealing with Qatar despite the US/Israeli ties of this latter...but just keep KHOJAH away ………;)
In any case, all of these “people” are a bunch of retards if not Hypocrites and God Knows, when their OIL runs dry, we shall see this region back to its real "size" and "time"....the Jurassic era !