An irreparable damage

Ascribing failure to March 14 at this time is not fair. To say they failed is to say they lost a military battle. They haven’t. The pro-March 14 government did not fail either. They may have, in their own way, backed down, transferring decision making to the Lebanese army, an unheard of measure in a country where the military should be following orders, not making up its own. But the battle for Lebanon is not over yet, although the chances of Lebanon recovering are diminishing.

I know many of you are angry at March 14 and Siniora. You have every right. I am too. They have blown many chances in the past. But in this past episode, something must be said about the decision to not fight back. Hizbullah feeds on violence, and Jumblatt especially, did not want them to have it. He did not want Shia blood on his hands, this I believe. It took him a long time to wash off Christian blood, and if this country is to continue being a nation for all its sects, March 14, a peaceful movement, cannot turn into Hizbullah. That's why there was something tragic about their turning to the state's army, which they knew could not protect them, but turned to it nevertheless because it is a state institution.

Let’s direct our anger at the right people. Hizbullah today, and Amal, stand responsible for stirring an unprecedented amount of hatred towards the Shia community, and widening the sectarian rift. And Michel Suleiman, who watched the masked criminals shoot people and sabotage the media, also stands responsible.

It doesn’t matter if this was a March 14 trap or not. It doesn't seem like one anymore. I don't think there are benefits from a trap that results in a sectarian rift. Hizbullah has made it extremely difficult for the country and for the Shia community to co-exist. This is the tragic consequence of their irresponsible and criminal behavior of the past 4 days. This might not be the end of it. Some people will not forget, or forgive. And Lebanon Shias will have tough times ahead of them. And so will the rest of the population, which now has little faith in the institution March 14, who trusted, whether out of helplessness, shrewdness or even stupidity: the Lebanese military.

I didn’t need to hear it from Samir Geagea today.  Suleiman should have the done the most basic thing—protect citizens and their properties. The fracture threat is bogus. It's either already divided or whole. No soldier in this army should desert if asked to protect a citizen. If so, then he does not belong in the army, funded by taxpayers. Hizbullah, and a good number of their followers, don’t even pay this army’s salaries.  Those who do deserved a better treatment. The army withdrew from the path of Hizbullah and Amal, watched them from a distance as they erected new borders inside the country and terrorized the population. This is unforgivable behavior.

The events of the last three days not only undermined the military institution, but may have convinced some in March 14 to regret their decision to support the candidacy of Suleiman for president (Even Siniora's address included hints that the army did not fulfill its responsibilities). Sadly, when you partake in circumventing the constitution, you cannot expect the state institutions to protect you, or protect the people.  When you expect a pro-Syrian appointee to act against the interests of his former masters, you can’t expect him to protect you. Geagea today stopped short of withdrawing his backing for him, hinting that he had never been enthusiastic about the army commander's candidacy.

The Kalam El Nass interviews with the Future News journalists said it all about the army and Hizbullah. An army officer acted as a messenger for Hizbullah, and accompanied them inside Future TV’s building to cut cables and shut down the station.

Those former colleagues of mine delivered the harshest verdict against the state’s only remaining functioning institution, and against the people they once helped. Future TV is not perfect. They lack a lot, as do other media in the country. But this partiucular station has done more for this “resistance” than any other station in Lebanon. The Hariri Foundation they attacked still funds the education and medical treatment of Qana survivors, and has taken the cause of Lebanese children victims of Israeli violence to the UN more than once.

Here is an excerpt from Sahar Khatib’s interview, a Future TV journalist who went out of her way to represent the point of view of the “opposition” on her show, as she should have, only to be rewarded with terror. 

Comments

[EV]

You hit the nail on the head by putting the blame on the military institution which was USELESS in protecting its citizens. A Nation with an Army that is always afraid of fragmentation at the slightest confrontation is not a Nation. Sadly, I strongly believe that it's our country that is beyond irreparable damage.
We need a new formula for Lebanon, one that excludes the Shia. Call it partition or federation or whatever. The bottom line is that we've become mutually exclusive.

[janan]

I received this in an email, I'm not sure where it is being published but I thought those of you who can read Arabic would appreciate it.

سعيد علم الدين
2008 ,May 10

هذا ليس انتصارا بل عار!

هذا ليس انتصارا بل عارٌ وأكثرُ من عار سيلاحقك على مدى العصور والأجيال يا حسن العار!

وعليك يا أبو الدمار كما احتفلت بكارثة تموز التي افتعلها عن سابق تصور وتخطيط مُعْلِناً "نصرك الإلهي" فوق الجثث المحترقة بغرور واستكبار، عليك اليوم أن تحتفل مع عصاباتك أمام كارثة قناة "المستقبل" التي كشرت عن أنيابك النتنة وأحرقتها ب"عارك الإلهي" وثقافة الموت والحرق والفتنة المذهبية التي أيقظها وتناثرت في كل الوطن العربي كالغبار. العار الذي جلبته بفعلك الآثم الشرير على اسم الله عز وجل الذي ابتدعته لحزبك نفاقا وتجديفا وتزويرا وتغريرا للناس البسطاء والمؤمنين المخدوعين بعسل الكلام وبأموال شعب إيران التي يبعثرها حكامه الجهلة الخبثاء للقتل والإرهاب وسفك الدماء والإجرام في فلسطين والعراق ولبنان. فمن يضع على علمه اسم الله يجب عليه أن يحترم على الأقل القيم الإلهية والإسلام لا أن يدوسها بالأقدام ويطلق نار الحقد والضغينة حتى على المشاركين في جنازة ويسبب مجزرة راح ضحيتها 6 شهداء أبرياء عزل و22 جريحًا في هجوم مسلح من عصابتك على مسيرة تشييع أحد أبناء منطقة طريق الجديدة. طريق العزة والكرامة وهي ستكون جديدة كما رسمتها دماء الشهداء الأبرياء وسنسير عليها جميعا مع الرئيس المفدى البطل الشامخ شموخ صخور الأرز وعنفوانه فؤاد السنيورة الذي دعانا لرفع الأعلام "ظهر غد للوقوف في الشوارع وعلى الشرفات وفي كل مكان من لبنان، دقيقة صمت وتفكير وتبصر في أن بلدنا يستحق منا أن نعمل حقيقة لإنقاذه ولانقاذ انفسنا".

ولكي ينهض بهمة الشرفاء: لبنان الوطن السيد الحر الديمقراطي العربي المستقل. نبتهل من الله الرحمة لأرواح الشهداء الأبرياء الطاهرة في سبيل قيامة لبنان، والصبر والسلوان لذويهم، والخزي والعار للقتلة المجرمين.

فما يحدث تحت عمامتك وأوامرك وأنظارك وشبكة اتصالاتك ليس انتصارا يا حسن الغدار على بيروت العزلاء، بل خزيٌّ عليك وعار! وعلى قيادة الجيش التي تركت عصاباتك الحاقدة تعيث بالمدينة خرابا وحرقا للمحال التجارية والمؤسسات وقتلا للأبرياء وترويعا للكبار والصغار.

وما قمت وتقوم به يا نصر الله بحق وطننا المدمى وشعبنا المظلوم وبيروتنا الثكلى من ظلم واستكبار لهو أكبر دليل على أن الإنسان بك قد مات. ومن مات إنسانه فقد إنسانيته والضمير والحس والإحساس وتَتَمْسَحَ جلده كالتمساح وخرجت له أنياب والعياذ بالله لا يضاريه بهمجيتها إلا الوحش الضار!

هذا ليس انتصارا بل عار عليك تاريخي أبدي لن تمحوه الأيام يا حسن نصر الله!

عارٌ عليك لأن بيروت ليست تل ابيب وراس النبع ليست مزارع شبعا

والطريق الجديدة ليست ما بعد حيفا. يا سيد نكران الجميل وقلة الوفاء!

عارٌ عليك لان ما مارسته في بيروت الأبية العزلاء ليس بطولة وانتصارا بقدر ما هو بلطجية وزعرنة وتعبير واضح عن نفسيتك الذليلة المريضة والحاقدة دون حق على أهل السنة واللبنانيين جميعاً.

اثبت يا نصر الله بأنك طائفي مهووس بالدماء، وجمع الأشلاء وأخذ ثارات داحس والغبراء.

فبعد التهاني بهذا الانتصار كما سماه ميشال عون الوغد الثرثار نردد مع أبو الميش رئيس جمهورية ولاية البقشيش اللبنانية للبس العمائم والطرابيش الإيرانية، ونقول: هنيئا لك انتصارك العار في بيروت، فقد لقنت العدو الإسرائيلي درساً لن ينساه وخلعت له الأضراس مع الأنياب. لقد أعدت القدس الشريف بصخرتها إلى العرب وأعدت الأمجاد.

لقد استطاعت جيوشك المظفرة وفي ساعات قليلة الانتصار على الأمريكان أعظم قوه في العالم في لبنان كما بشر خامنئي النعسان.

أثبت يا حسن بأنك عميل صغير وجندي مثل عون في جيش الأسد أليست صور القاتل بشار الاسد ترفعها تحديا واستفزازا للمشاعر اللبنانية وتلصقها على صور الرئيس الشهيد رفيق الحريري دليل على انك عميل صغير مع حزبك لبشار؟

انت يا حسن لا تقاتل لإعلاء كلمة الله، وانما لإعلاء كلمة الفرس على العرب، وكلمة بشار على لبنان، لكي ينجو من حبل المحكمة الدولية ويربح الرهان. الظاهر انك متورط معه وتعتقد أنك بهذه الطريقة ستتخلص وإياه من الوقوف خلف القضبان.

فعار عليك يا نصر الله وألف عار على ما ارتكبت يديك بحق أهل بيروت من جرائم وإرهاب وحرق ودمار.

عار عليك سيلاحقك في هذه الدنيا والى يوم الحساب والعقاب حيث لا مفر من محكمة الواحد القهار.

[John]

The army was mediocre the last few days. They were covering HA's thugs in the street of Beirut. What army stands with the illegally armed militias against the unarmed civilians under attack?
They wanted to stay neutral and out of it all? The soldiers should have stayed in their barracks.
Another thing that wasn't given much importance is the ISF guys who joined the Amal thugs and didn't even bother to change their ISF uniform. There actually are pictures of men in ISF clothes firing RPG rockets on civilians they are supposed to protect.

What can a government go when its armed forces that is supposed to defend and enforce its decisions sides with the thugs that take over the country?

[naja]

The army has been sidelined before, all in the name of "avoiding its breakup". Chehab did it, to protect his bid for the presidency, and so did Rachid Karameh, with disastrous consequences. I guess Suleiman was walking in Chehab's footsteps. But few people noticed the key message in Saniora's speech: he referred to the "consensual president" but omitted his name, and then went to call on the army to assume its duty. For me it was clear: "don't think that we'll elect you that easily, buddy. This is no free ride". And, guess what, within a couple of hours, the army moved in.

[Jay]

naja,

Excuse my french, but fuck Suleiman. If this guy proved anything so far is that he's nothing but a Syrian poodle. M14 would be foolish to trust this traitor. I only pity the genuine foot soldiers who have to serve under such corrupt and inept leadership.

[ghassan karam]

AK,
I understand and appreciate the level of frustration and disappointment of many regular readers and contributors to this blog. But I must stay that I am glad that you have taken the lead to post the above because it is time that people realize that the worst outcome of the recent developments would have been to have two militias going full blast at each other. Had this been the case then we might by now have thousands of deaths, phenomenal destruction but above all we would have resorted to the tribal instinct that we are attempting to avoid. The best decision by March 14, whether planned or forced upon them by the events, is to ask the legitimate armed forces to do their duty. The fact that the army has failed is a different matter. The case of whether March 14 leadreship was competent or not is also a different issue. I have often dismissed them as being clueless but I am truly in their debt this time around, not for having precipitated a conflagration that they were not prepare to handle but for being responsible enough as to not oppose illegal violent acts by more of the same illegal violent acts. I feel confident and thankful that the reaction to the hooliganism of HA was measured and a reflection of a people who place their trust in the state institutions. Win or lose the fact that March 14 called of its militia was the right thing to do.

[maverick]

Ghassan +1,

Great post AK.
It is almost annoying watching the subdued patient reactions of Joumblatt and Hariri,the army and the rest of the population.But since March 14 has everything to lose,it is doing the right thing by not joining the street clashes. This is a war of ideas more then anything, and Hizbollah has damaged their credibility or whatever shred they had of it....It is the beginning of the end for them.

[naja]

jay,

I make no excuses for the man. In fact, the army's stance has been nothing short of shocking. For the Ring road to be closed, just about a hundred meters from a major army point was for me scandalous. Indeed, the troops should have cleared the airport road the minute it was closed. That would have been clear enough a message and could have prevented much of what took place afterwards. My guess is that Suleiman was weighing his options and opted for a non-committal one in the hope of remaining "the consensual candidate". So good on M14 for reminding him who he owes that to. Also don't forget that if the Israeli army found HA a handful, what chance the Lebanese army? We're in realpolitik land and, pissed of as I am, I am only giving a reading of the most cold-hearted of decisions.

On another note, it looks like the opposition thugs got a bloody nose in the mountains and the North. I'm not holding my breath but the Chouf ain't no walk in the park.

[vox]

I said it earlier: cut the paycheck. If that won't get the army out of the barracks, nothing will.

[Umm K.]

I have to agree with Vox. Some of those men do not deserve paychecks (or uniforms) from the state...first to get cut, should be the army members who let (or helped?) low-lifes physically attack Lebanese media outlets.

[tg]

You people still don't get it.

M14 made a reckless decision when they demanded the dismantlement of Hezbollah's telecommunication. They put the two sides on a collision course.

What's even more tragic is that it's now apparent how disingenous they were. After 4 days they backed off UNWILLING to stand their ground.

In a democratic society such cowards would resign, but this is Lebanon so they will continue to slither on.

[Jeha]

GK,

The consequences, as AK points out, are dire either way; this divorce will be extremely hard to overcome. I am at a loss to weigh the consequences, but however I consider it, it does not look good.

[Charlie]

I am amazed with the voices that continue to think not fighting HA in Beirut is the right choice. Or the Army is not equipped to take on HA.

So Assuming that not fighting HA is the right thing, then what is the next phase in that passive plan to getting rid of their militia and their continuous threats to National Security. You say Dialogue, well that won’t do much for we already know HA will not even discuss their weapons and all the security zones they have erected all over the country, heck they are not even willing to give up a telephone network.
Great, so what leverage M14 or any other Lebanese group who would like to see a nation without HA’s militia use for leverage with the Pasadran of Lebanon?? I think not much, but I am open to ideas if some see a different angle.

Now some would say: what can the army do against HA, they are armed with anti-tank weapons rockets..blah..blah?. Well here is a thought, HA doesn’t have tanks or plans or even heavy military trucks for that regard, heck they don’t even have a Humvee, but that doesn’t seem to stop them. As far as Anti tank weapons, well anyone who is old enough like me that lived through some of the vicious battles of Beirut back in the 70s and 80s can tell you that you don’t need heavy armor to win a street fight.

Come on people one doesn’t fight a hard core fascist cult like HA by being passive.
If the glorious savior Seliman is not the man to fill the void needed to protect the citizens, and Siniora (or any other PM for that matter) can’t replace him, then guess who is going to do that, a militia. So for you who still thinks it is a war of ideas and you can win this at the ballot box, well think again for you are about to find what you missed out in 75…

And by they way, give up on the idea of election and crap with HA around, for if HA doesn’t like the results, they will come back and burn Beirut again!

[ADF]

Jeha, +1

So, Suleiman is a slime ? ok.
Try to remove him and impose a "real" head of the army.

What I found very disturbing, wasn't Slimeman (non)move, but that the army, en masse, stood by him. Unless, for sure, those that were inclined to join M14 for making a stand and shoot back were dissuaded to, by M14, to avoid blood and are in sleep mode for now. I don't know.

Granted, those ISF/army that "worked" with HA thugs won't be investigated or expelled - much less arrested/prosecuted.

The scenario changed a lot, bien sur, but the bad actors are the same. No oscars here, I suppose.

[courageous]

Here's a piece also about the Army's failure:
http://greaterlebanon.blogspot.com/

[Charlie]

ADF,

"Try to remove him and impose a "real" head of the army."

Ah, Excuse me? Have you not been watching the display that was put on for Shoukeir
the last couple of days? Come on man get real!

[ADF]

Charlie,
Sorry - I haven't made myself clear. It was an irony, a joke.
I now it won't be done - or better - it can be done, but not by M14.

[Charlie]

sorry..I got ya now..:-)

[Doha]

I agree with you AK 100% that this costly "adventure" has led to two realizations: 1) HA did irrepreperable damage to the Shia community vis a vis the rest of the Lebanese, and 2) the lack of trust and confidence in the ability of the Army to protect the Lebanese.

There's a sense of sadness and gloom at this reality today. There's a sense of irony; that those warlords of the past who chose not to shed blood and gave in to the state (which during their heydays they so carefully undermined), found the Army (and his Commander whom they trusted would be their Trojan Horse) not stepping up to the plate and failing to provide that needed protection.

Who's going to protect those who chose not to fight with guns?...

[ghassan karam]

Charlie,
"look before you leap" :-)
I don't believe many have argued that HA and other thugs are to be given a card blanche. Of course the ISF, the army , the navy and the coast guard... have a solemn duty to protect and defend the state against ruffians. But it is no good for one to call for the rule of the law and then proceed to break it . Does that remind you of "we had to destroy a village in order to save it"?
None of this is meant to excuse the incompetence of March 14 or to support the barbaric activities of HA and its allies. March 14 in general and Jumblatt in particular stuck their fingers in the nest of wasps like a five year old without any protection or planning. In addition to the above all the police and armed forces turned out to be disgrace. But this is a different issue. I do not want the March 14 to have their own private hooligans and Storm forces for the same reason that I have been one of the lonely voices opposed to appointing Suleiman to the Presidency because it is unconstitutional. You cannot protect the constitution by breaking it either.
If the use of private militias by one party is wrong then definitely it would be doubly wrong to have them used by both sides. Two wrongs do not make a right. But then you already knew that.

[The Other Tony]

I have to agree with GK. I'm not excusing the March 14 leadership for their past decision making (or non-decision making), but there was no other alternative other than for PM Siniora to outline his 5 point plan yesterday.

The Government was correct in dismissing the Airport Military Chief and requesting the dismantling of the telecommunications network. However, unless the Army decides to support the decisions made by the Government, then the Government lies bare. It is the Army who lacked the spine on this, regardless of what their reasoning for inaction was.

The positive to come out of this whole affair is that Hezbollah's hypocrisy has been exposed for those that want to see -they can no longer say that they have never used their arms against the Lebanese people! In addition General Sleiman is a politician before he is Army Head - whether his hands are tied or not is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned and his suitability for President should be called into question. Having said that, I guess the moment that Gen Sleiman decides to be objective and implement the Governments decisions then the result would be the loss of a "Concensus" Candidate for President. Is General Sleiman's "impartiality" going to speed up the election of President - probably not! Has he lost the respect of many people - probably yes!

What next? That is the trillion dollar question. As I have said many times before, these two sides of the Lebanese political divide are so diametrically opposed that I personally do not believe there is a solution in site. Even if a future election provides the current Government with a majority, I don't believe that Hezbollah will give up their arms and their veto on decisions that easily.

The road to a solution is a long one and lets hope that the side which has the best vision for Lebanon as a whole triumphs in the end.

[Jester theFool]

I disagree with todays post in so many way, I can't afford to state them.

[Jester theFool]

Though, I will forward you to a Great Read - Something Officials in the US government should take note of:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hooman-majd/beirut-is-burning_b_101104.html

[The Other Tony]

and yes GK, it is most definitely unconstitutional for General Sleiman to be a Presidential candidate. Unfortunately though, he seems to be the only one that the Government is willing to vote for at this point in time.....

[Andre]

I don't believe for a minute that if M14 or more specifically the Hariri clan had a true militia that it wouldn't have engaged Hizb and fought them for every inch square of West Beirut. They did fight, but were quickly overwhelmed, dropped their weapons and ran. The fact is, they never saw this coming and never thought that the hizb would risk such an undertaking, but when they did, and the army did not budge, they were left to fend for themselves and could not handle it. Hariri and the sunnis, will not stand by and allow this to happen again, so there is going to be an arms race that will develop b/w the sunnis and shias and if another conflict erupts, all hell will break loose. We are on the verge of an open conflict b/w two factions that reflect the regional tensions, and as history has proved, our country is always the one to pay the bloody price of that conflict. The fact that the army could not assume its duty, is another reason why it wont be trusted by anyone in the future, and will encourage all other militias to arm themselves once again. The hizb opened a pandora's box and the country is worse off for it.

[tg]

A few last points.

It's laughable to think Hezbollah lost because they are now suddently "exposed". People are really scrapping the bottom of the barrel trying to find some downside for hezbollah. Hezbollah could not care less what other sects think of them. They are driving by idealogy and their supporters are still firmly behind their actions. Please don't embarass yourself by thinking hezbollah is now "exposed"

"so there is going to be an arms race that will develop b/w the sunnis and shias and if another conflict erupts, all hell will break loose."

Insufficient arms was not a problem. There were more than enough weapons surrendered to hezbollah. The problem was a lack of will to fight. This is 100% identical to the fatah vs hamas clash in Gaza.

Hezbollah fighters will fight and die for their cause. The same cannot be said about M14.

[The Other Tony]

TG,

I didn't say that Hezbollah has lost anything because they are now exposed. What I said is that a positive to come out of this entire sorry affair is that Hezbollah can no longer claim that they have never turned their arms inwards on the Lebanese populace, hence their hypocrisy on this point. This is how they have become exposed!

[ghassan karam]

The Other Tony,
It makes no difference what the "Government" wants to vote for General Suleiman. There should be at least one red line so to speak, all acts by a government are supposed to be lawful and constitutional. If and when a government uses unconstitutional means then it becomes an outlaw organization. The Lebanese government has no choice but to rescind the nomination of General Suleiman because the present Parliament is not empowered to legislate prior to the election of a new President.

Jester theFool,
I am a regular reader of the Huffington Post and I often agree with most of the opinions there. This is no exception if one is interested in a critique of American foreign policy. I do not believe for a second that the Lebanese crisis eminated from the interferences of foreign clandestine agents that had to find ways to penetrate the ranks of Lebanese officialdom etc... It would be silly to deny the foreign element but my point is that the root cause of the Lebanese crisis can be found in the very old saying that "Lebanon is a country without any citizens". As long as we are glad to do the bidding of the Iranians, Syrians, Egyptians, Saudis, Martians ... then Lebanon will always be a troubled land. We have no right to expect others to come and die for us when we are not even willing to demonstrate outrage. I do not want the Americans to send in the Marines. I do have the right though to expect the LAF, that absorb the biggest chunk of the budget to obey the orders of the executive branch.
BTW, I have a possible explanation for the lack of development of a Lebanese identity. We are not cosmopolitan yet, although we might be one of the most cosmopolitan in the world, but we might be the only surviving pan Arabists and Pan Islamists in the Middle East. It appears that we have an attachment to a place called Lebanon but most of us feel that we are either Arabs first or Moslems first or maybe even Arab Moslems first. Our Lebaneseness has not developed beyond an attachment to a geographical location.

[A Guy]

That news reporterette is really HOT! I have no idea what she is saying but she seems so ernest. I'm for whoever she is for.

[John]

M14 chose not to fight because they can't. plain and simple. They are no match to the war machine of HA. Not yet. Jumblat and Geagea are not exactly doves or disciples of the-turn-the-other-cheek philosophy. They are trying to buy time. Maybe they made a mistake by provoking HA now, but at least after today, we don't need to argue and guess whether HA would use its arsenal against the fellow Lebanese. We now know the answer to that. But what's sad is that it appears the the M14 leaders are the ones who needed this proof the most. Also, after the shameful performance of the army they must be coming to the slow realization that they are running out of options, and that rearming is becoming more attractive by the minute.
Unless there is some regional breakthrough this I'm afraid is the beginning of a new civil war. Very sad...

[Helen]

I enjoyed your article of today. You wrote-down what I have been thinking and I believe many here think the same thing too. Why are we paying the salaries of all those useless security services while poverty and lack of social assisstance is on the rise. I just would like to add that you did not stress enough that all the responsibility lies in the hands of this current government that is nothing but corrupt and incapable of doing anything else than filling their own pockets for the last three years. Why should we go again and get stuck into this vicious circle by backing-up this bad governance because we believe we do not have any other option? Why cannot we explore better options and find better people to lead us or handdle the crisis than all those incapable leaders that we have now?

[Abilama]

The Divine Betrayal of Lebanon

Brigadier General Wafik Shoukair is important for HA smuggling operations via the airport. Smuggling weapons, equipment and personnel going to Iran and coming from there. He is a HA stooge.
How otherwise do yo explain their insistence that he stays at his post.

The Lebanese army has taken the dangerous step of not obeying the Government.

Minister Marwan Hamadeh told the "Voice of Lebanon": The government is not too happy with the role of the army during the past few days in facing the Iranian project of transforming Lebanon into a real military base on the Mediterranean sea.
The army command announced that Brigadier General Wafik Shoukair will be reinstated in his current position at the airport. It also promised to address the issue of the Hezbollah communications network taking into consideration the public interest and the security of the resistance. ( It means things stay as they are)

Hezbollah prepares to claim another divine victory, again at the expense of Lebanon and its citizens.
Siniora's speech is a betrayal of Lebanon. HA should not think that if they possess wepons they can dictate and impose their own political will on all of the Lebanese people.
At the 888 hill in Aley after Hezbollah kidnapped 4 people from Aley who are members in the Aley municipality . The whereabouts of the kidnapped are still unknown, but Hezbollah has confessed to the kidnapping. The son ( 15 years old) of one of those that were kidnapped ( Mr. Ghannam ) was shot during the kidnapping and he is in critical condition at a hospital in the Chouf region. A prominent member of the municipality of Aley was wounded in the clashes.

HA Ha Ha,Siniora:" We will no longer accept the current status of the Hezbollah arms". Really?

Where did all the money from the Paris conference of donors go?

[maverick]

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but something smells funny about Michel Sulieman and his relationship with Nasrallah, could Hizbo have had a green light prior to their adventure? was it coordinated? amid recent stirrings against the army,with pols slamming its role in the last 5 days, and components of the army command resigning in detest...I think This seperate entity should be looked at with closer scrutiny....just to add salt to the pot...something tells me, the killing of Francois Hajj and Wissam Eid by inside information points a finger at MS.

[JoseyWales]

Another great post AK.

-Why does the constitution ban the army commander from running for prez?

If you said: So that he does his job away from politics. BINGO! You are way smarter than 98.7% of your compatriots and leaders. Screw around with the law at your own risk you retards!

Gus et al, ACTION does not always mean you come out with both guns blazing. M14 has shown repeatedly it's failure to act and/or to demand accountability from itself or its order-takers.

All armies show signs of breaking and/or have deserters in times of civil strife. You fire/pursue those guys, you don't arrest the ones doing their job!!!

On the bigger Shia pic: M14 failed there miserably by failing to engage any parts of the community (not saying it's easy):

-Why no photo ops or govmnt appts to Mufti Amine, Ahmad el Assad, non-Hezbo Shia intellectuals??

-Memo to M14: Iraq is full of Shia Arabs who are NOT Iranian stooges (and are not ashamed of US ties). Think that gvmnt to gvmnt visits/coordination might give you some present and future Shia cover and convince some Leb Shia to come over etc???(Besides building a counterweight to Syrian hegemony).

It's too late for many things today. We have reached a point where all the non-Shia communities need to say: we want to live together but not under ALL circumstances. Here are the bare minimum conditions. If you are willing to meet them let's talk, if not let's divorce.

Stop screwing around with Choukair and the election law and airport containers, it's all a sideshow.

[Solomon2]

"I am at a loss to weigh the consequences, but however I consider it, it does not look good."

Interesting. Of all the commenters here, Jeha, you're the one who came closest to reflecting the prevailing Lebanese mood during Hezbo's operation: that no matter what, Lebanon would survive, the implication being that Lebanese would take the "doormat" route and accept whatever fate Hezbo had in store for them.

That you are uncertain now I thus consider a fair reflection of the Lebanese mood in general. You do not appear to be angry - that I also find very interesting.

Hezbo's announced withdrawal doesn't surprise me. From the pics I saw on Wednesday, their troops were not equipped for extended occupation of city areas. Probably it was planned to be a two to four-day operation from the very beginning: pass through Beirut like a wave to extract concessions, then fade away.

Any longer might push Hezbo's logistics past their limit - or maybe Nasrallah realized it would push Lebanese past theirs. I think everyone who remembers Lebanon's wars knows that Lebanese anger is a slow and terrible thing.

Unlike AK, I doubt that this represents "irreparable damage" to Hezbollah. Hezbollis themselves must feel they are kings, part of a force nothing can stop; and with the first conflict they can create with Israel their "legitimacy" will return no matter what Israel does, is that not so?

[Min Canada]

THE BROADER PICTURE:

For anyone who thinks that the events of the last few days were a message to the Gov. of Lebanon or the Lebanese factions who oppose HA, think again. There is a broader context to the events that I would like you to consider. One that the west is reading very well.

In 2006, and with intelligence in hand that Israel was preparing a war against HA, The Sayed ordered the kidnapping of the IDF soldiers from across the boarder. Despite all the backtracking that happened afterwards, the action was well calculated and forced the Israel to make a political decision when its military was not prepared to go yet. The results were a disaster for the IDF. HA was ready, they were not. They needed intelligence and they didn't have it and they ran a war in a blind disadvantage. Kudos for HA. They forced the issue and got the advantage.

The lesson was not lost. Today, HA is fully ready for war. They have rebuilt their arsenal and are at the maximum advantage point. They know that there are intense efforts to infiltrate their systems. There are maximum efforts to track their infrastructure and everyday that passes from here on brings a disadvantage to them. The risk is that the IDF will know a bit more tomorrow than they did today and build a cool-headed strategy to win this time around.

It was therefore important to try to repeat the forced war with the IDF early. A provocation along the lines of the last war would not do. The UN forces are in the south and they would be involved. HA banked on a misunderstanding of what the Gov. Forces in Lebanon represented to the US and Israel. They truly thought that the US will defend them and send the IDF to support them.

Israel has been sending clear signals to the USA that they have no interest in taking on HA or Iran in the absence of a fail-proof missile defence system. 2 Months ago, the IDF heads were invited to Arizona to witness live tests of the system the USA would like to hand over to Israel. The system was good, but not great and the IDF brass flew back home with a "you can do better" message to the US. Israel's decision on war, the next war, will not come from the politicians as it did in 2006. It will come from the military (Lessons learned). And they will only make that decision when the missile shield is in place.
HA is now in a difficult position. They were hoping to dictate when the war would start. They were hoping to drop the mask off of the Lebanese Gov. and show them as US and Israeli allies. They were hoping to take the initiative away. They failed. Now what? Will they escalate to force the issue? Will they test the blue line? As they feel more and more of their advantage is slipping, they will be more willing to force the war to maintain some elements of surprise. Expect the IDF to fight when and only when they are ready. Keep an eye and an ear for news on the Missile Defense systems and their deployments in Israel. Expect the news to be a few months old. When the IDF announces the full deployment of the system and the successful test of the system, buy a ticket out of Beirut.
For now, nothing will happen and the Sayed is not happy about that.

[Charlie]

My friend Gus,

I hear what you are saying about the two wrongs don’t make right and at the end it is the responsibility of the security apparatus to protect the citizens. In theory, all that is correct.
In reality though, today the army as an institution is broken, the citizens are being attacked by another invading army, so what do you propose they do? Accept the invader and present him with civil disobedience? Live under occupation and hope that one day some higher force saves them and sets them free?

All this talk about democracy, pluralism, Freedom…etc. is nothing more than sweet words in fancy books when the land is not secured to implement these theories. Today HA is making sure to show everyone that they control the land and all the assets on it, they did that in Beirut and now they are trying to do it in the Chouf . From accounts that I have heard and read so far, the army command seem to be a complete cohort with HA

I know we don’t like the idea of having militias. Fine, M14 is supposed to be the government they need to shake this army up and break it so they can actually build an army that can defend the nation or at least the citizens in Free Lebanon. This is not a militia; it is a Lebanese armed force that is cleansed from Syrian and Iranian moles. Like I have said before on several earlier posts, all armies break up in a civil war, it is the nature of the beast. Preserving the army unity at all cost is the wrong thing to advocate and the price being paid for that is just too high.

The bottom line in this conflict is and to follow you analogy about the hornet’s (wasps) nest, if you have a hornet’s nest in your house you have to find a way to remove it or the nest will keep getting larger and larger till you have to pick up and leave. As we know, HA doesn’t believe in compromises or a state called Lebanon, only force will remove this nest.

[Bad Vilbel]

Good post, AK.

I too am seeing the shia having pretty much severed themselves as a community from the rest of Lebanon, as a result of HA's actions. Once again, I have to bring up the dirty "partition" word that I've been bandying for a while now. HA is pretty much guaranteeing, through its actions a de facto partition, both on the ground, and at a communal level.

Aside from that point, I agree with everything you said. Jumblatt is acting like the bigger man, for sure, and that's a good thing for him and the rest of the Lebanese, for sure (at least in the long run).

Suleiman, as I've already said, is nothing but a traitor and a Syrian stooge. I really pity those of you here who still seem to have some kind of faith in him or the army as a whole.