An exit or a new start line

Siniora’s speech was probably his most anti-Hizbullah to date, and, by referring the matter to the army, pitted Hizbullah against the army, should the militia refuse to heed the call of the military institution.

Shortly after Siniora’s speech, the army command said it would keep the airport security chief in his post pending an investigation, and deal with Hizbullah’s communications network in a way that would preserve the public interest and Hizbullah’s security. The army also instructed soliders to spread the authority of the state and arrest violaters.

The army also called on “all parties” to withdraw fighters from the streets.

As I type this, LBC is reporting that the “opposition” accepted the call to end armed protests, however, it said it would not halt its “civil disobedience”, meaning the tents and occupation of downtown Beirut and likely the airport road would remain.

Hizbullah’s war against the state took another tragic turn this morning, when armed men affiliated with the militia fired at a funeral procession in Tariq Jdeedeh, killing several mourners. Fights broke out in Halba in the north between Future movement supporters and the SSNP, resulting in at least nine SSNP dead.

More details and analysis soon.

Comments

[maverick]

too soft, too late, too little......

The bastards should get nothing in return, its the Hizbollah led opposition who should be bartering a deal to get them out of the mess theyve created.They know theyre up shit creek with no paddle,especially if the death toll keeps rising,and if they keep meeting pockets of resistance from ticked off citizens,ie the Druze in Aley. I say strike while the iron is hot.Atleast mob the tents in downtown and scour it from the filth.

[JoseyWales]

Lets call it what it is AK: another defeat and another retreat by the feckless state and its government.

So Hezbo gets to keep Shoukair and its network. It has put people, pols and journalists on notice. It has made plain the government is naked, and the army/Suleimane are Hezbo poodles.

And now Hezbo's got a new asset to bargain with and should I say blackmail the country with: the airport.

[Charlie]

Saniora + M14 are nothing more than a cluster fuck.
They have no plan, they failed to prepare the grounds for a face off, they continue to treat the Army command as a Lebanese command when the command was all “Made in Syria”. The pro state Lebanese are all there when the gathering is a big party but HA is there to actually fight and die for the vision of Lebanon.
Harriri has failed Beirut miserably.

If an M14 cabinet cannot rule and has lost the tools (Army) it needs to enforce any decisions it takes and will be under the gun to turn over any decisions the other side finds unsuitable, then Siniora should resign. That at least will open the way to a true Lebanese opposition that will be motivated to finish the fight for independence.

This last fiasco has shown that M14 has no leverage on the ground. So, how are they ever going to be able to negotiate with HA over its arms.

[RebLeb]

We don't know everything. I bet an ultimatum was delivered to Nasrallah (in private so he doesn't lose face) that the army will move in if he doesn't pull his goons off the streets, regardless of consequences.

[LebaneseExpat]

Siniora is a man who exceeded all expectations; he is a far cry from our usual brand of politicians and a true statesman. I agree that this might be a step back but this is the right thing to do to spare innocent lives and keep the Cedar Revolution a real one (as opposed to the Hizb masquerade of "resistance.")

We all know that the past days have been a despicable disgrace and a public, albeit unintentional, uncovering of the true nature of the Hizb. Nasrallah’s adventurous megalomania was in full swing when he committed the gravest error in Lebanon’s history by invading West Beirut. Why did he do that? Simply put, he was aiming to send a message to Bush who will be visiting the area soon, trying to show the US and the world that he could take over Beirut in a few hours just because he can. What he accomplished instead was supreme treason to a legitimate cause and betrayal of the people who blindingly believed in him. Aoun is gloating somewhere. Their Lebanese passports ought to be revoked for we can no longer count them as our compatriots.

[Charlie]

This excerpt is from an article for the Gaurdian posted on Beirut Spring

“An air of defeat hung over the Sunni areas. "The Shia have won," said one young man, in Tareeq Jedida area on the Sunni side of Corniche al-Mazra'a "They [the Sunnis] pay me $100 to fight, the Shia are fighting for their beliefs, and man, they have been fighting for 25 years, we can't match them."”

After reading this, one has to see the failure of M14 in installing a strong patriotic fighting ideology with the masses. This fella doesn’t even seem to believe that fighting for his country to be free from an Iranian/Syrian invasion is a good enough ideology or believe to fight for. Better yet I wonder if they even know the difference between living under occupation or being free. If this is widespread amongst the M14 camp, then they are doomed for failure.

Another alarming part was the Amal guys knowing that the Army and ISF are going to pull out and some members of the ISF or Army switching sides and taking arms agains the FM crowd...What a country!

[Anonymous]

RebLeb is dreaming. Who is it you think could issue an ultimatum, and why would Nasrallah care about the Army? What have they done to be held in any type of regard? Is not the main duty of any Army to protect the state and its citizens, ask the people of Hamra how protected they have felt.

The government and March 14 have now done everything they said they wouldn't, they have thrown up their hands and given in. Lets face it there was no fight, most reports reflect that it was citizens of one group or another protecting their houses or neighborhoods, their leaders did nothing, the army nothing......

Americans have had to hear for years how we fled Beirut after the Marines were killed and since then the "terrorists" have considered us easy targets. Someone explain how March 14 and the government's actions of the past are any different. Have not they taught HA that they will stand up for nothing and will always back down?

I am angry at all the destruction and for what?

[JoseyWales]

RebLeb,

Stop deluding yourself. There's no ultimatum. Hezbo got everything they wanted and more. We know all we need to know:

Saniora/Saad are failed fucks.

The army is worthless.

And Hezbo just expanded its sit in to the airport (the other main Hariri legacy).

These are the FACTS.

Until further notice, there is NO secret plan, NO secret support, no nothing.

What you see is what you get.

It's the same lamo no-plan since 1969: relinquish state authority to fucks with a foreign agenda and don't lift a finger to defend the citizens lives and property.

I want Saniora and Suleiman hung for treason.

[JoseyWales]

Lebanese Expat,

Milquefreak Saniora is a statesman? Fuck that man, we're in enough pain.

[Doha]

charlie, i don't think we need another "strong patriotic fighting ideology." to hell with fighting ideologies and with ideologies in general. we got nothing from ideologies except doom and death!

Amal MP Khalil said Saniora's reference to the army command is a lie. Thank you very much, does this look like an outright attempt at creating conflict among the Army ranks?

And please explain to me what Khalil means when he says that Saniora is carrying out a coup against the state. What are we: playing a game of words here? In what kind of reality are they living in? Is it the same reality as yours or mine?

[Doha]

It looks like the Army is reversing both gov't decisions. Are we left in the cold here?

[Charlie]

The last couple of days have shown clearly the complice nature of the Lebanese Army with Nassrallah as well as the failure of Harriri and his associates in installing a strong believe among the masses in a country called Lebanon. So, I have to say not even one single drop of American blood deserves to spilled over this lawless hole called Lebanon.

The US better off facing Iran directly and not get sucked into a street fight in Beirut that even the anti-HA Lebanese are willing to do.

[Stuck Visitor]

Things are back to calm. As a last sign of defiance towards the Beirutis, the armed goons took out all the Lebanese flags that were hanging on the street where I'm at before this terror circus started.

Beirutis can sleep slightly better than last night.

JW do you have anything more helpful to say other than how much you dislike all the Lebanese fucks from the comfort of your keyboard in the US?

Yes, siniora is a statesman, and if you want the army to do something, come here and bring some qualified and loyal Lebanese officers with you and restructure the army. Better yet come here and show Siniora and rest of the failed political fucks as you put it how this country should be run. Otherwise shut the fuck up.

[JoseyWales]

Stuck Fuck, you shut the fuck up.

It is the job of the gvmnt to restructure the army not mine you moron.

And there's a reason I am in the US, you idiot, and it's because I was there for years under another failed PM Karami and another failed Goddamn army command.

Like many others I tasted the lack of security first hand.

Never again will I put my safety in the hands of assholes and their supporters (read: YOU).

Been there, done that. And I will give my opinion from here, thank you very much whether you like it or not.

WHOSE JOB IS IT TO PROTECT THE CITIZEN YOU GODDDAMN BUFFOON??? The army and the government or mine??? How STUPID are you?

[Charlie]

Doha,

Sorry but that is a negative. Every fighting force needs a strong set of believes to fight for, persevere and prevail; a pay check alone is not a good reason. I am not just speaking from military stand point but also at the political level. Yes there have been ideologies but most of it have been imported, including HA’s. The ideology I am speaking off that I have expected M14 to be advocating and propagating amongst their followers is the one about the Free, democratic, and independent Lebanon that they talk about during their fancy rallies.

[Bad Vilbel]

So, now the Army is getting to make political decisions (reversing government decisions): Highly unconstitutional! (Not that ANYONE cares at this point).

Not to mention it's become quite evident the army isn't neutral.

Saniora took 4 days to address the nation and give us the same platitudes as usual. He's no statesman. None of these people are.

Lebanon is a failed state, always has been, and will continue to be so until further notice.

Stop deluding yourselves there, with your plans and ultimatums. There is no plan, there is no ultimatum. The only side who actually has a plan, and is following through on it (and has been since the 1980s) is Hezbollah.

And like Josey Wales, I am tired of all these people who come in here and make excuse after excuse for utter and complete failure on the part of the government to do its job.

A government with no ability to enforce its decisions is no government.
A government with no ability to protect its citizens from thuggery is no government.
A government with no ability to command the obedience of its armed forces is no government.
A government who gets told what to do by Army command, Hassan Nassrallah, and my little sister is no government.

Let's tell it what it really is here: Lebanon is still governed the same way it was before 2005. Instead of Rustom Ghazaleh having final say on all matters, now it's Hassan Nassrallah. Just because he's let M14 play house for a couple of years doesn't mean shit. When push comes to shove, he's the one who got to decide when Lebanon went to war in 2006. He's the one who got to decide whether we should or shouldn't have a president. He's the one who's getting to decide what the army does now, whether Wafiq Shukeir stays or goes, and what to do with the telephone networks.

Facts don't lie: I just listed for you folks who the real PM of Lebanon is, and has been since 2005: Hassan Nassrallah.

All Saniora's done, at every one of those decisions I just listed, is to show up on tv, a few days late, to cry and complain. But he's never had the ability to enforce or DO anything. He didn't start or stop the 2006 war. He didn't start or stop the presidential elections. He didn't start or stop riots and sit-ins. He didn't start or stop private telecoms. His orders to Suleiman were ignored. In other words, he's about as effective as if my little sister made "decisions" that no one listened to.

[Homo Libanus]

We now have a security chief, linked to a terrorist organization, that is still in charge of the airport. How long will it be before every major airport bans flights from Beirut?

[Doha]

BV, i wish we had a freakin' president! the onus is just on this prime minister. i just don't know who to blame anymore.

[Bad Vilbel]

Doha,

You think that would make a difference? It wouldn't. The "supreme leader" Nassrallah would still have final say. President, PM, etc. are all allowed to "play house" as long as they limit themselves to minor decision making about minimum wage and the price of bread.
But the ultimate final decision has always been in the hands of the "supreme leader". And any attempt at going against his wishes (as has been proven in 2006, and again in the past few days) will result in thuggery and mayhem.

As I said in my comment last night. This whole display was simply to show M14 who's boss and put them back in their place. They were "allowed" to "play house" for the past 2 years, and they started getting the big idea that they could start making actual decisions. Nassrallah made sure to put them back in their place. That's what this was all about.

[Sumwan]

We have become a hostage nation. We're all now the hostages of Hezbollah.
That's unbelievable. I don't know how long can the Hezb maintain this situation.
This looks totally incredible. I'm literally bewildered.

[Sumwan]

" This whole display was simply to show M14 who's boss and put them back in their place."

Yes, of course, Bad Vilbel, but don't you think this time the Hezb went a little bit too far for this to be effective ? I mean usually the Hezb uses the Lebanese state by hiding behind it after its Isreali adventures, but haven't things gone too far for this comedy to work one more time ?

[Bad Vilbel]

Sumwan,

HA has been going too far for years. People were just too busy drinking the "Resistance" kool aid and living in denial to notice it.

Some of us have been saying for years how every damned thing HA did was "too far".

You're gonna tell me this is WORSE than STARTING A WAR WITH ISRAEL in 2006? As far as I'm concerned, that one was even worse. HA took an entire COUNTRY to war, caused over 2000 deaths, without ever consulting with anyone else in Lebanon.

And NOW you guys notice they've gone too far? Hah!

[Andre]

It's easy to "be in control" when you are the only militia to have weapons, and not just any weapons but a slew of heavy artillery and sophisticated missiles. HA displayed a fraction of its militia tactics and ability and won the day hands down! The hizb is now positioning itself to strengthen its hand by having Siniora and the M14 gang eat their own words by revoking these two key decisions that started this fight. The message was loud and clear, anyone who dares mess with the hizb's weapons or logistics will be punished regardless of who it is. The army command has no choice but to try and defuse the situation as best as it can, and it is unfortunate that an army would have to stoop so low as to have to negotiate with renegades and thugs, but that is the state of things in Lebanon. This government has taken a major blow regardless of what Siniora says, and it is perhaps even more significant that M14 will have to sit at the table with the opposition having lost their ability to maneuver...this is going to have some major repercusiions in the months to come. the lebanese concept of "la ghaleb wa la maghloob" just got tossed out of the window! We know who really came on top. Hurts real bad but it's a reality that no one can deny at this moment.

[LBCAGirl]

Is it possible that the Lebanese are so afraid of civil war that they will accept anything? Have talked to many friends this evening and some are saying this is better than civil war. Christians seem deluded, as if the outcome would be different if HA had taken them on. What has been the point of the last, what 18 months or so? If the majority had no plans, no ability to fight HA then why didn't they negotiate back when downtown was first occupied?

The whole thing seems like such a waste. All the lives lost, all the businesses destroyed and not just in the last few days but the past few years. All those who have been assassinated, all those who marched when asked, all those who stood up and called for Syria to leave, what was it all for if there was never any plan to actually defend the government or its decisions?

The whole thing is a disgrace. Lebanon is gone, god knows what has sprung up in its place.....

[danny]

Andre,

Sorry, I did not follow your thread...Do you think the HA exposing itself as gang of thugs gained control or came on top? If my understanding is correct, the government had suggested that the army initiate the investigation in these two matters. Even if the army says that shkeir has to stay and the communication lines are not for commercial use (that's why they had asked for the investigation by the army), so what. Let us not act as little boys...HA has lost big time! If you think that the army was going to quash them, then you were not watching the Nahr el Bared episode last year. I do not believe army did its job. But this is Lebanon. How did this government or March 14 lose its ablility to maneuver?

The Christian side of March 14 has been more cemented by this barbaric attack by HA. Now whatever's left of orange crew, have seen it as the light of the day for what HA stands for (do not get the street thug hassan upset).

I am usually critical of saniora et al, however, I do not share most of your acceptance of defeat and surrender. On the contrary, whereas they had rejected Hariri's proposal a day ago, they accepted it today. Some of were suggesting the end was near...Where? Besides HA, the people who lost are the poor souls who gave their life aand those who lost their homes!

I have a feeling that HA knows that if there's a "next time", they'll face the resistance they were looking for. Look at what happened when these thugs tried to move up to Aley...They were repulsed and lost seven of their amazing holy martyrs...

[Homo Libanus]

Time for action:

I hope all of you living abroad will take the initiative and write to your representatives to support banning flights to and from Lebanon until airport security is fundamentally changes, and a real investigation into Shoucair takes place.

I live in London, and I have just sent letters to my MP as well as BAA to highlight the risk of a terrorist-linked security chief running Beirut airport.

Hizballah must not be allowed to run Beirut airport.

[Ace]

BV - I can't argue with the fact that Nasrallah is in control of Lebanon. As you say - facts don't lie but he does not yet have the right kind of control to implement his total program which is to make Lebanon an Islamist satellite for Iran.

Add this to your equation - what has been his #1 priority? Stop the Tribunal, and he has been unable to do that. The Government did at least do an end-run around him to get it established. International acceptance, economic aid and help for Lebanon to exist is essential - and Nasrallah can't get that either. The Government has it. Nasrallah has to have what at least appears to be a political authority in Lebanon and the Government has been able to stop that also. It's not much maybe but at the end of the day -- those items translate to control that is accepted internationally. What will happen if all countries cut Lebanon off the way they have cut Gaza/Hamas off? Nasrallah has to gain control of Lebanon in a way that is politically acceptable to both the Lebanese and the world or he can't really do what he wants to do.

The Government (so far at least) has been able to prevent that - and try to stay alive while doing it. Not easy.

[Min Canada]

News of the Syrian Army entering Lebanon from the North.

[Vulcan]

As predicted, the Hariri/Jumblat/Siniora stand is nothing less than a complete and cowardly surrender to the arrogant thug Nasralla.
It is reported that giant portraits of Bashar Al Ass ad are back on the streets of Beirut!

We are defeated.. again

[danny]

Valcan,

If their goal was trapping Ha and exposing its main LIE(that they'll never use the guns inside)...HA LOST!

[Bad Vilbel]

Danny, sorry brother, but you're deluding yourself here. I'm not going to repeat what I've already said, but the facts on the ground (at least until further notice) do not lie. The fact that HA has been exposed as a bunch of thugs does not change that they're in control of decisionmaking in Lebanon.

I think a lot of people are simply living in denial, and clinging to this "HA has been exposed" as some kind of phyrric victory. HA was already exposed, my friend. We all knew what they were. This has accomplished nothing new in that regards.

The analogy I'm seeing here is this: You have just been mauled by a lion. You KNEW the lion was a lion, but the lion kept telling you he was a sheep. But you already knew better. Well, the lion just mauled you. And now you're going "Hey! At least i've proven the lion is a lion now!" Big deal....We already knew he was a lion, and what's worse, you've just been killed and eaten. Woohoo! Feel free to celebrate the fact that you've exposed the lion. Oh wait, you can't celebrate, cause you're dead.

[Jay]

BV,

What do yo make out of the situation outside Beirut? In areas like Aley and Akkar these thugs were confronted and defeated. Supposedly they suffered 7 casualties in the Aley region. It would seem to me that for some political reason/maneuver M14 is allowing these thugs to roam in Beirut, though other areas are off limits.

[Bad Vilbel]

Jay,

Not sure yet. But that was pretty inevitable. If you recall, I said yesterday that HA has no interest in actually "running" Lebanon or taking over the state. It's too much work, and would involve subjugating large areas of non-friendly populations (namely the Christians and the Druze).

The main prize here was Beirut and the airport. Because Beirut was easy. There are enough HA bastions in and around Beirut to overtake it without much of a fight, as they did. The goal being, as I stated yesterday, to put M14 back in its place. The message is:

You guys can have the old "Christian enclave" and other irrelevant areas. You can even keep your government, to run your water and the price of bread. Just don't mess with us when it comes to our security "arrangements" (Airport, Cameras, Telecom, Missiles, Army infiltration).

I think today's clashes outside Beirut are not so much about HA. I have a feeling they're more "retaliatory" clashes from upset sunnis in Tripoli, who are taking out the humiliation of what happened to their "brethern" by torching some opposition offices in Tripoli. My guess is you're not seeing HA regular troops in those clashes. More likely, it's the street thugs of SSNP and the such.

I could be wrong, obviously, but that's the overall picture I'm seeing here.

[Vulcan]

Yes let them take over Beirut the capital and the government center, take over the airport and seaport but Alley is off limits, what kind of strategy or maneuver is this!!

Jumblat/Hariri/Siniora are cowards EVEN NOW THEY ARE STILL PATRONISING THE SO CALLED RESISTANCE WITH THE SAME CRAP.
They shouldn’t have lead so many to believe their rhetoric about freedom, democracy, peace and rule of law. The people that died in the past 4 days died for NOTHING.

[LebExile]

I love your optimism Danny ... that is all I'll say!!

[Jay]

BV -- Actually in Aley they were HA (from the Kayfoun area) not SSNP. From what I've read and heard it was pretty intense fight.

Vulcan -- Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that areas outside Beirut are more important. Though it doesn't seem to me a total 'surrender' or 'capitulation' as some people been saying on this blog. I am more of the belief this charade is part of a political ploy that is too early for us (at least on this blog) to see/read its full ramifications.

[Microraptor]

Bad Vibe... you are a funny guy. Danny, you are a nice sounding guy -- but get real. Hezbollah won this round hands down...

They got everything they wanted, showed that they could take Beirut in hours and now have the airport hostage too....

And get real about the LAF.... the IDF couldn't beat Hezbollah in 2006 and the IDF have some of the most modernb equipment and best trained soldiers in the world. The LAF is a largely conscript force with equipment that in many cases pre-dates the Vietnam War....

If Hezbollah were popping Merkavas open like sardine cans with their Metis-B and Kornet anti-tank rocket systems, what could they do to the antique M-113's used by the LAF....???

Hezbollah are the biggest and probably best organised political party in Lebanon, they are the strongest and best armed military force in Lebanon and they have the most committed and ideologically certain segment of the population behind them -- which also happens to be the biggest single confessional group in the Lebanon....

Them's facts lad.

[danny]

Micro,

Thanks for the information. However, as is in evrything in life, we have to know what constitutes a victory. No doubt HA is well armed; as if we did not know. If the end game were to be in achieving a military victory, then you are sorely mistaken my friend. If as some have suggested, people should've fought back...Well they have at their points of strenght. They have routed them in the mountains, in the north as well as in parts of Bekaa..If anyone thinks that civil war is the answer; well have a long memory my friends...If that were to start all kinds of heavy and light armaments will be there in no time. Ha maybe could "win" a hill...Remember The March 14 have been training their "troops" in the army and the ISF...So Please I am not disallusioned; or naive. Set the parameters of victory then let me know who won...HA LOST...So they get to keep they freaking lines and some army hack...What do they win????

[MLK]

Micoraptor..

Totally agree with what you said, though one should add that irrespective of HA's superior military power they are politically a bankrupt group. They stand for nothing but instilling Shiite-fascism, courtesy of the Mullahs in Persia. If you still think they give a damn about anything Lebanese you are simply a buffoon.