Jumblatt's test

Walid Jumblatt has come out in support of Berri’s dialogue, in part to “test the opposition’s intentions”, and because “dialogue is the only solution”, he said.

By declaring his support for Berri, Jumblatt broke with his March 14 colleagues, many of whom are demanding the election of a president precede any “dialogue”, especially one that takes place outside the state's institutions.

With Geagea still in opposition, and Hariri on the bubble, Berri went ahead and set a date for the electoral session, encouraged by the “positive reaction” to his call. He said the dialogue would end with a declaration of intentions regarding two issues: the make up of the government, and the electoral law. He promised to convene parliament on May 13th to elect a president after the declaration is made.

It seems that everybody, including Jumblatt, know that this "dialogue" is a bad idea. It's been done before, and it led nowhere. I don’t think Jumblatt needs it to discover the intentions of his opponents. The days of the J&B love-hate parade are long gone. So what’s going on?

Comments

[Jeha]

You're right, AK.

The latest Joumblat foray brought back in mind the good ole days of "J&B". But somehow, something does not compute in all this. Unless they are all looking for a way to keep stretching the deadline till the new guy/gal is in the White House.

[Maverick]

Theres two avenues i can deduce from Joumblatts attitude towards Berri as of recent.
1) Short term: Since the opposition has been calling for dialogue over and over, and blaming the majority for not responding or even scuttling talks, they have grown complacent and confident in their time buying. Joumblatts proposition might be a move to call the bluff and put the ball in their court especially Berri holding him accountable for the failure of dialogue.

2) Long term: This may be a little Naieve, but i have noticed Joumblatt working on the " Shiite" card lately, trying to muster some support from independant shiites, as he knows very well, the only way to end hizbollah dominance must come from the shiites themselves...perhaps Berri, in the long run might distance himself from Hizbollah seeing the party dwindle and lose wide support, making himself the undisputed champion of Shiites in lebanon.Joumblatt would be hoping this is the case, and perhaps he is building bridges knowing that Berri is more interested in his own survival then the Syrian regime he is protecting.

And then again, it could be nothing but a political stunt typical of Joumblatts "wherever the wind blows" tactics.

[ghassan karam]

Pity a nation that is run by such incompetents. Nothing, and I mean nothing, that has been done ever since last November is lawful. A president is to be elected by the members of the chamber and if they fail to do so then they try and try again. No where does it say that only a chosen few are to agree on a name ahead of time.Does anyone have a say in what transpires besides the handful of embiciles that have created this mess in the first place. If there is to be any discussion to bridge the differences then there is only one legitimate place for this: the chamber of deputies itself with the participation of any of its willing members. Dialogue is one of the most important functions of an open session of the chamber of deputies. And please let us not compound our errors and mistakes by having the chosen few "feudal lords" make an appointment that is patently unconstitutional and what is even worse to discuss in advance the shape of the government and the electoral law?
I can understand Nabih Berri's intentions; obfuscate and delay since that is what his foreign masters wish but then to have one of the very few "feudal lords" that at times appear to have a real sense of what is right and what is wrong lend his support to such a nefarious effort is disappointing to say the least. Thomas Kuhn was absolutely right when he suggested that it is irrational to expect those whose interest is to maintain the status quo to become agents of change. Real change comes only from the heretics, from the ones with a fresh new vision, from the young. We have said this many times before and we should say it again, Lebanon as a state will not survive and prosper if it fails to undergo a revolution which throws out all the current rascals. How likely is that to happen depends on how genuinely dissatisfied we are with this tragic comedy.

[VOR]

Jumblatt is an expert at talking from both sides of his mouth, but it looks as if Hariri and Gemayel have also joined the chorus in favor of "dialog" with the opposition. This is how conflicted these people are. Not more than a week ago they were rejecting Berri's initiatives at sitting together around a table setup for this special occasion by the speaker, then the very next thing they do is embrace his idea. Perhaps the opposition knows all too well, that when all is said and done the majority does not have the will nor the political clout to carry out their own initiatives. What is eqally troubling, is the fact that M14 has accepted Berri's treachery in conducting his speaker's duty which has served the opposition's goals shamelessly of taking parliament hostage. These M14 leaders have no respect to the rule of law either and their waffling only shows that the majority has no clear plan or vision to do what's needed to salvage the country. Desperate times call for desperate measures and I will agree with ghassan karam above: "Lebanon as a state will not survive and prosper if it fails to undergo a revolution which throws out all the current rascals." The sooner the better.

[danny]

Nothing is lawful!! They are all blowing hot air. The word "Dialogue" and its meaning have been torn apart in Lebanon. What on earth are they going to talk about? Whether it is WJ or his cohorts, their announcements are laced with ifs and buts...Except Geagea who still is steadfast against wasting time! Unless the two headed serpent's head is cut off (Iran and Syria), the armed "resistance" will keep its mini state and keep Lebanon as a terrorist heaven filled with fundamentalists of all kinds...They'll keep on kidnapping foreign MPs with impunity and nobody opens their mouth!!What a cesspool.

[JoseyWales]

Amen Gus et al.

The laws have been trashed so often that they don't exist anymore.

In fact Lebanon is DEAD (read Ms. Levantine latest post).

Charles at Lebanese Political Journal has a long analyis of Jumblatt's move and why he agrees with it.

Dialogue is OK of course and I see some of his points, but to repeat: Lebanon is dead. The politicians are brain dead, and the people and young are comatose or on the wrong path.

We had dialogue (round table) before and they disagreed on some items, fine. But even the items they agreed upon: border demarcation and Pali weapons were later recanted or not acted upon.

So what is the point? You disagree nothing happens. You agree nothing happens.

I don't know, maybe a fully televised dialogue with the words US, Syria and Israel banned? It's tough to be hopeful with the same bunch of clowns and the now "respected friend and Speaker" Berri, who 3 months ago was just a mailbox.

[Jay]

Guys you make valid points though one has to acknoweldge the difficult environment M14 is dealing with. Ghassan, I champion your idealistic views though one has to be a pragmatist and see that Lebanon was never truly an independent state. Let's face it when the so-called leader of the largest sect swears allegiance and Lebanon's blood to the causes of Iran what else do we expect?

This is not a situation where the people revoluted and finally kicked out their occupier. Almost half of the population still favors the return of the occuiper. One can't build a nation on such a division. Dialogue and compromise are the only option.

It's easy for us to sit back and play Monday morning quarter back when we're not privy to some of the factors that shape M14 views and actions. Patience my friends, patience. M14 leaders deserve a lot of credit for avoiding the Syrian trap of another civil war. One clearly sees that these leaders learned the mistakes and follies of civil wars and now stand as one formidable united front against the intense Iranian/Syrian assaults.

[Bad Vilbel]

They're just passing the time as usual. Nothing new here. Our so-called leaders are all convinced that the real decisions are made elsewhere (Washington, Damascus, Tehran) so they're just passing the time, filling the airwaves with initiatives, insults, dialogue, and much hot air.

Thing is....these morons could actually be leading, and governing, instead of waiting on foreign directives like the lap dogs they are.

Pity a nation with such inept leadership, and with a people too blind to recognize such ineptitude. Why millions of people haven't marched down to these people's homes and lynched them up, after all these years, is beyond me.

[Bad Vilbel]

"formidable united front"???

Sorry Jay, but there is nothing formidable or united about these incompetent buffoons. You're way off on this one.

[ghassan karam]

JW,
As you well know, I have checked the patient, Lebanon, into critical care a long time ago but for sentimental reasons I have resisted pulling the plug although the patient is brain dead. There comes a point, and maybe we are past it, when euthanasia is the best course. Hell, even horses are shot in order to decrease the misery, so why not pretend nations?

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan, I think you'll find I'm entirely on board with the idea of euthanasia for this failed state we call Lebanon. I too find myself clinging on due to sentimental reasons, but all sentiment aside, let's be honest here. This patient has been brain dead and beyond salvation for a LONG time now.

The sooner we all come to terms with this fact, the sooner we can pull the plug and move on.

There are, however, far too many who still live in denial and continue to claim this patient is fine and will be waking up any minute now...

[Bad Vilbel]

Speaking of Jumblatt...I have to ask, as usual, howcome no one is calling Hizbollah on their abduction of a French socialist delegate?

I ranted about it on my blog. And there was a small story about it on Naharnet, but no outrage about what is, after all, technically a KIDNAPPING by private individuals who think they have the right to apprehend people and interrogate them.

Why does stuff like this not make the front pages?