Hot summer - updated

David Welch thought it was appropriate for a US official to join the chorus of foreign officials fearing a “hot summer” in Lebanon.

US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs David Welch said that Lebanon has lost the Arab initiative, which failed to provide for the election of a president.

“I fear that the Lebanese might face a hot summer, similar to the summer of 2006,” which saw the devastating war between Israel and Hezbollah, Welch said at a press conference in Abu Dhabi. (Now Lebanon)

On April Fool's Day, Arab League Secretary-general Amr Moussa reported the same prophecy.

"Many people are telling (us) to expect a hot summer in the region. This scares me a lot because the weakest point…is Lebanon. But when Lebanon gets a president, a unity cabinet and an efficient parliament, (then it) becomes stronger," Moussa said. (Naharnet)

These statements are adding to a Lebanese sense of confusion and resentment towards local and foreign players. We’re not talking civil war here, we’re talking a regional war that, for now, Lebanon is being projected to host, seeing how engaging the principal players directly might be too costly or damaging to the status quo. It would be disgusting if a war similar to the 2006 war spared Syria, Israel and Iran the destruction that was reserved for Lebanon.

As Moussa and Welch said, Lebanon is a strong candidate for hosting such a regional power play because of its inability to have a functioning government and parliament. Instead of sparing Lebanon more destruction, we see Nabih Berri continuing with his efforts to ease pressure on the Assad regime by burying the presidential election underneath a thick layer of illegal conditions, the latest of which is prior agreement on the electoral law.

Update. The US embassy in Beirut has denied that Welch made the above statement. Here is the press release.

U.S. Embassy clarifies Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs C. David Welch’s Statement

April 22, 2008

Several media outlets have incorrectly reported on recent remarks by Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs C. David Welch

Answering a question from a reporter in the United Arab Emirates about his trip to Lebanon, Assistant Secretary Welch said Lebanese had expressed to him concern that tourism could suffer again this summer because of the tension in the country. 

The Assistant Secretary said:

"They're worried that they'll have another difficult summer of tourism being low because of the tension in the country, and more broadly, I think they are concerned, ever since Hizballah launched the war in 2006, that maybe Lebanon will miss out from this oil boom, that it will be left behind in the region as there is economic progress elsewhere.  So I found them troubled about the future.

Comments

[JoseyWales]

While internal tensions are definitely related to the prez situation, I don't see what the election of a prez has to do with a regional war (that may happen regardless)?

Anyone thinking the election would defang Hezbo or Syria is delusional. Yes, they may lose some Aounist supports but that's about it.

PS Jeha, re your previous comment, I agree: Carter is a total screw-up on all counts. YES EVEN his Egypt-Israel peace treaty IMO prolonged war to this day on the other fronts, and accelerated the destruction of Lebanon in 1970's (as Egypt was made a pariah in the Arab world).

[AK]

It's not just the election of the president. It's what this election could lead to. It's a lot easier for Hizbullah to operate in vacuum. The militia's antidote has always been a strong and functioning government.

[danny]

AK you are right. Josey HA had only known the freedom to do as they please under the supervision of their masters from Syria from its founding until 2005...The past three years they have been acting as the masters of Lebanon except in some small slivers of land. The biggest fear for HA is democratic FUNCTIONING institutions. Their BS about resistance has long worn out. Accountability scares them. Also, if there is a free state they'll lose their mini state. Again ACCOUNTABILITY to the public is it. They cannot lie and spin about this and that!!
That's why I had alluded to the convergence of interests between hizb and March 14 at this juncture until IT is functioning (in our lifetime JW). HA will never want to integrate into "Lebanon" as far as their goals and "raison d'aitre" remain as is!!

[Bad Vilbel]

Am I the only one here not feeling sorry for Lebanon?

Riddle me this:

if "Lebanon is a strong candidate for hosting such a regional power play because of its inability to have a functioning government and parliament.", then pray tell me, who do we have to blame for "hosting such a regional war" but ourselves???? Your disgust is misdirected, AK. If it's our inability to have a functional state that's allowing these regional conflicts to play in our yard, then the blame is entirely on us. Get the house in order, lock down the yard, and you won't give anyone any excuses to come fight their wars on your turf.

[AK]

I did not absolve anyone of responsibility here.

[Bad Vilbel]

And about the Jimmy Carter visit to Damascus...As usual, these western officials go in with the best of intentions and get hoodwinked. We've seen it time and again. Latest case in point: Carter steps out of his meeting with Mashaal and announces to everyone that he's gotten Hamas to recognize Israel. Hours later, Mashaal informs his audience that "Hamas won't recognize Israel".

When will these idiots learn that every attempt at engaging Assad, Hamas and Hizbullah always ends up the same? They tell you what you want to hear, you leave Damascus trumpeting your accomplishments, they turn around and go back to spewing bile and hatred (not to mention missiles) for their local audiences's consumption...until the next naive Westerner decides to come visit...and repeat ad nauseam.

[Min Canada]

BV you said:
"Get the house in order, lock down the yard, and you won't give anyone any excuses to come fight their wars on your turf."

How do you propose we do that without getting into civil war? If you force the issue: 50+1, disarming HA, they said clearly that they will fight you. So what do yyou do? Give in? Give them everything they are looking for for the sake of locking down the yard?

It is nice for us to sit here and pump our chests, but the reality is this is a difficult situation and there is no easy way out. Brave or not is not teh issue. You want to see M14 kick but. Kick who's but? HA? Syria? with what? The Army? Be real. These guys go all in every time you draw a card. They know they have the weapons card and they will not let you forget it.

So yes, we are heading to a hot summer because we let Syria control us for 30 years while we kept repeating that we NEVER had problems "Ekhwe Ekhwe walla" Meanwhile they were building HA with Iran and now what? Nothing will get these guys out without a regional mega change, but who has the stomach for it????

[Bad Vilbel]

Min Canada,

I'm not talking about today or what can be done right now. It's too damn late. Lebanon is already fucked.

I'm talking about years of doing nothing and letting others use our backyards for war (since the Cairo accords) and then whining about it.

If you don't want shit going down in your backyards, you should've showed everyone who was boss way back when. A good example is Jordan. Not an oil-rich country. Was infested with the PLO in the later 60s, much like what ended up happening to Lebanon. As soon as the PLO got out of line (with help from Syria, of course, even then), then king Hussein cracked the whip, cracked down and showed who was boss in his own domain. Jordan has managed to stir a pretty stready course ever since, staying fairly pro-west for the most part, managing a peace treaty with Israel, and remaining out of the stupid morass that Syria and Israel managed to create in Lebanon.

And before everyone jumps on me: I realize Jordan is not multi-sectarian like Lebanon is. And I realize Jordan is not a democracy (neither is Lebanon actually). It's not a perfect parallel. But my point stands: Lebanon has never bothered to make a show of controlling its own house. It's always been quick to jump on board every "cause" in the "neighbourhood", inviting all sorts of people into our backyard to run their shenanigans. And then all we do is bitch and whine and come up with quotes like "Lebanon is a strong candidate for hosting such a regional power play because of its inability to have a functioning government and parliament." (no offense to AK, as I do understand his point as well).
And we ring our hands and throw our arms up in the air with our "Allah Yistor" and all that claptrap, and run around blaming "the American project" or "The Palestinian cause" or "The Zionist enemy" or the "Shaquika Sourya" for trampling our flowerbeds, looting our backyard furniture, and making themselves at home in our garden.

Cry me a river, folks. You reap what you sow, as the saying goes...

[Jeha]

BV is (mostly) right... Aside from the fact that Jordan is not really multisectarian in the same sense as Lebanon,

Last time Welch said that "it was the responsibility of the Lebanese Government to" do something, the Gov't did not do it and we had the July war. what will happen this time? Or more precisely, how will it be done?

This Lebanese government of Amateurs has signed on UNSC 1701. This means that, in addition to getting Israel withdrawal, it has taken upon itself to disarm Hezb'O. And no, Israel's overflights are no excuse; as much as I hate to admit it, it is their best way to monitor the ongoing smuggling. And no, the clumsy barriers that they had erected across the roads will not stop smuggling. When we were kids, we easily transited across such stuff, and worse.

[VOR]

What happened in Zahle is proof that there is a plan to destabilize the country and plunge it into chaos. The politics of discord are spilling over into killings and shootings and pretty soon this will turn into an armed conflict. It's inevitable that the tensions, political instability, lack of state control is now leading to a security breakdown. Hot Summer? Well if we were a bit smarter, we could've seen this coming and taken steps to prevent it. Our leaders are so up their arse that they just can't see anything past their own misguided priorities. Things are falling apart and all we hear is more complaints and recriminations, enough of it to put the country and its people in peril and leave them exposed to all the dangers that abound around them. No wonder the country's screwed!