US increases pressure on Assad regime

With the international tribunal getting ready to launch later this year, the US has increased pressure on the Assad regime, despite the latter's attempt to use the Palestinian card to ward off Arab League pressure.

The United States has put ships making port calls in Syria on a watch list, an official said Thursday, as Washington ratcheted up the pressure on Damascus over its alleged links with terrorism.

…In February, the US Treasury Department said that it had blacklisted four men accused of funneling militants, weapons and money through Syria to support Al-Qaeda operations in Iraq.
Also last month, the Treasury announced it was freezing the assets of Rami Makhlouf, maternal cousin to Syrian President Bachar al-Assad, and other Syrian and Lebanese figures accused of ties to the Syrian regime in an embargo list for engaging in “public corruption.” Syria said the events served to increase pressure on Syria and Lebanon.

Syria was placed on a so-called "Port Security Advisory List" amid "concerns about the connections between Syria and international terrorist organizations," State Department Deputy Spokesman Tom Casey told reporters. (Now Lebanon)

Jane's published more detailed information on the deployment of a US navy strike group to the eastern Mediterranean:

A US Navy (USN) expeditionary strike group has been deployed to the eastern Mediterranean in the wake of increasing tensions between Lebanon and Syria.

The strike group is led by the Tarawa-class amphibious assault ship USS Nassau and includes the Austin-class amphibious transport dock USS Nashville, the Whidbey Island-class dock landing ship USS Ashland, the Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Philippine Sea and the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Bulkeley and USS Ross. The six vessels left the United States on 19 and 20 February, the navy said…

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the United States' Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Nassau group would operate in the region "for a while" and that the deployment signals the navy "is engaged" in "a very important part of the world". (Jane's)

Also, Kuwaiti newspaper al-Qabas quoted "political sources" as saying the deployment of the US ships is intended to warn Syria against resuming political assassinations in Lebanon. 

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

All well and good, but as I've stated before "warning Syria" is not enough unless you're willing to pull the trigger.

If Syria were to carry out another political assassination in Lebanon, will these US ships bomb Syria? I'm not holding my breath. And I don't think Bashar is quaking in his boots either.

[Meghwar]

BV,

"All well and good, but as I've stated before "warning Syria" is not enough unless you're willing to pull the trigger."

They will.... soon...( Russia gave its consent by accepting the UNSC Resolution against Iran...among other things and is pissed off with Ahmadinejad), IMHO we should wait for after the Iranian elections, then we will have a clearer Idea on how the wind is blowing, towards escalation or negociations.

I hope it is not going to be a regional war ...bcz if so ..gonna be ugly...VERY UGLY!

[JoseyWales]

To paraphrase BV:

When you have to shoot, shoot, don't talk (Tuco/Eli Wallach).

Meghwar,

I hope it's ugly, very frigging ugly for the Assad regime.

[Bad Vilbel]

To be honest, and as much as i HATE to make comments like this from the safety of my home, away from harm's way, i do hope it gets ugly. That whole region needs a bit of ugly to clear some of the bullshit from the air, if you know what i mean.

I'm still not convinced it's gonna happen though. Waiting for Iranian elections, waiting for US elections, new administration is going to go back to square one and "engage"....too much waiting (which is Assad's favorite tool, btw).

I'm not very optimistic that much will change. But we can only hope, i guess.

[Min Canada]

Despite what we may think and the roll out of events in the media, the decisions of war and peace are made long before aship is sent, a soldier is deployed or a bullet is fired. This coming war (it is coming btw) has been in the works since 2005. The 2006 "experiment" was a test run, and a very useful one.

I wish we could keep track of the fleet units especially the transport units. A call to port by the troop carriers may be KEY in the timing of a war. Ships don't usually travel with their full load of troops. These are transported to nearby freindly cities and then board the ships when needed. We will never be told about when of course.

So the sea seage has started for Syria. Next will be flight ristrictions and then even more pressure until all units are in place.

This is going to b ugly folks. Really Ugly...for all.

[Meghwar]

JW,
I hope it would be ugly for the Assad regime myself, but the thing being not Assad alone is going to suffer, we have assholes in Lebanon who are ready to burn the country for the eyes of Assad and ahmedinejad...not to mention the other dumd Michel Suleiman who wants to protect Syria...just can't figure these retards out !

BV,

I can relate totally to what you are saying...however
the Iranian elections are not that far in time, (March 14th), the Ass summit is on the 27th, I just want to see Assad's acrobatics, in case the "Nut"-jad clan lose...

Iran would be more cooperative with KSA concerning Hizb and trying to stop the sunni-shii more than probable strife in lebanon...they both know that the weakest chain is still holding on, but the slightest pressure and hell's gates will break lose, in all of the region, not only Lebanon, and shiits would be wiped...Iran knows that.

USA, as I have been reading today, gave Syria a very clear message through Amr Moussa that if they continue in their plots ...they are ready to shoot, also the USA are not listening to the Israeli pleadings to spare Syria ( hopefully this one is true ) besides Russia gave the unnoticed NOD to the Int'l community concerning both Syria and Iran...have you heard about that Russian diplomat who criticized the Lebanese opposition and syria for their obstruction of the presidential election? Also making a fuss over the USS COLE??
I personally give it until the end of March ...after March is over ..I would rather lebanon stays away from the elephants' path! But with retards like hizb & co …we are the 1st to be hit.
Again I will stress that it is not about the IF it is about the WHEN ...Do you think the USA/Israel is going to let another coup-d’etat like in "Gaza" open shop in Lebanon with Hizb ??? Or Hizb open a "husseynieh in Gaza " ??? Assad is playing a very dangerous game along with Iran and the stupid brainwashed in Lebanon … what bugs me is that Lebanon always pays the highest price that is why I am hoping for the better this time !

[Min Canada]

Is Franjieh running scared? OMG I have never seen him so reconcilatory!!!
http://nowlebanon.com/Arabic/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=33788

[AK]

Min Canada,

Franjieh is regurgitating Assad's "offer". Not only is the 1960 law impossible to accept, but it's being used as a new obstacle after the government demand got boring.

[AK]

plus, nobody can "give" a electoral law to anyone, especially when they're not even members of parliament.

[Meghwar]

Interesting Article in L'Orient le Jour

"Quelque chose qui pourrait être une guerre se prépare..."

http://www.lorientlejour.com/page.aspx?page=article&id=366736

[Danny]

USA will not fight our battles. Also, with an almost lame duck president they will not take any major policy decisions without full consent of congress and Senate (almost impossible, unless Israel is under extreme duress). Israel can more than protect itself.
As for the increasing pressure, all indications seem to be that way...although a bunson burner kind of heat!
As for Iran's elections; who the hell cares. Anyone who thinks Khameini's men are better than Amjad's they should wake up soon. Remember HA answers to Khameini not the street sweeper!
One question to you guys; Is the current government investing in different areas in Lebanon to help with the economy and "act" as a governing body? HA buys their cadres. From different estimates anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 Shias are on the HA payroll one way or the other (direct or through employment in their companies or in government payroll in institutions controlled by HA). This translates to 80% of all Shias families being covered for their day to day needs.
It also seems that the flights to Doha with empty suitcases and returning with full ones are common place with the Orangebutts...Yakan has just purchased a few suitcases himself and is on his way.
Now Mahroumeen eh Maghwar???...

My point is why is not the government spending this money in the other areas and having their gratitude and support...as well instead of announcing that they are paying of HA assholes...and kissing Farsi butt?

Hopefully IT will be operational soon and one more excuse will be lifted from the March 14 repetoire...

Lastly, let's see what kind of reception does Geagea receive from the USA adminstration.

[JoseyWales]

Here's more information/dis-information:

Naharnet, today:

"A recent electronic mail leaked by Egypt unveils U.S. readiness to launch wide-scale military offensive against Syria if the Assad regime sticks to its policy towards Lebanon, Germany's DPA news agency reported."

I don't believe it. However, should it come to pass, think Micho Sleiman, who WON'T arrest thugs firing in the air, will:

a)stop Israel from attacking Syria from Lebanon?

b)catch flying US tomahawk missiles headed for the ophtalmology office in Damascus?

c)both of the above?

d)give us his opinion on the 1960 law?

[Min Canada]

Meghwar,
Re: "Interesting Article in L'Orient le Jour

"Quelque chose qui pourrait être une guerre se prépare..."

http://www.lorientlejour.com/page.aspx?page=article&id=366736
"

Do you remember me giving you the same details and MORE in the last two posts way before the Cole was dispatched? Anyway, my firend tells me he has been in touch with the press and that the story is in the works.

One more piece of detail for you all. Suleyman's call to the army is very significant. You will hear a call for the army to stay neurtal or join in the war on terror.

Question for you all: Why did Condy come to the mid-east? I mean why did she REALLY come to the area? Her stated purpose was as bland as W's. Do you see the pattern?

Sadly, Assad can still save his ass by watching HA being distroyed from a distance. What I can't tell you is if this is part of a deal with Israel and Magneyeh was the first gift.

[Min Canada]

Danny,
Question: How do you deliver the Presidency to the Republicans again?
Answer: Start a war!

The congessional leaders will file into the whitehouse very shortly to be told about it. The Candidates (Hilery and Obama especially) will have an opportunity to comment about on going operations. They may of course choose to condemn them. The RNC will be counting on that. If they don't, that could turn into the DNC's much larger Canada-Gate. Who will oppose a war in support of Israel and in the fight against terrorism and nuclear proliferation? Hmm?

That is how you assure legacy in Washington.

[Meghwar]

Danny,

I think I have explained why I am interested in the Iranian elections...It has a lot to do with KSA
But also here's this link in case you are interested in reading about it :
L’élection législative iranienne a-t-elle une importance ?
L’article de Karim Sadjadpour, membre de la Fondation Carnegie
http://www.lorientlejour.com/page.aspx?page=article&id=366698

USA will not fight our battles I agree, but also USA as I said yesterday will not let Lebanon become another Gaza, that you can be sure of.
For once Lebanon's interests are crossing those of the US, let's hope Saniorita and his "Mariachi" band would take advantage of this rare occasion and play it the right way, but mostly Saniorita should keep his trap shut!

Ya Danny walaou ??? "Mahroumeen" indeed :D

Min Canada,
I definitely remember, and it was my intention to back up what you said with the article, I myself agreed with you !

Mughniyeh is the first down payment by Syria…Assad regime is on the run and only Israel can save his butt,as usual ( Assad cannot do a thing about IT hence a regional war would be a very opportune “unintentional” postponement )

I just said it yesterday, I am afraid Lebanon is the one to pay every time there’s a fight …which Assad is pushing for IN LEBANON , whether it be a civil war, or an Israeli-hizb war…every war in Lebanon is to the advantage of this SOB ONLY IF He gets his butt kicked this time ….
and it is going to be UGLY!

BTW Min Canada, This dumb Michel Suleiman already made his call, he wants to fight Israel and protect SYRIA !!!!

[Min Canada]

Meghwar,

Sue Sue Suleman's call to the army is more problematic than it may seem on the surface. The bulk of the army south of the Litani will NOT see any action. Yes you heard me right will NOT (I will leave the rest to your imagination). The rest of the army, if it is isolated and pinned without being killed will be OK. The political story is the problem.
BTW, a few questions:
A - Are all the HA political assets still in Lebanon?
B - Who is keeping an eye on the 4 Horsemen in Roumyeh?
B1- How about transfering them to the US ships for their safety?

Asaad may want to take a page from Kaddafi's book now. Many from his team may not survive and others will fall through the IT, but he could still survive as a "peace maker" if he sells off. Yalla, its not like this is such a strange thing for the Assads.

[Bad Vilbel]

I don't know about you guys, these comments are starting to sound more and more far-fetched fantasy to me....no offense, Min Canada.

[Andre]

There is something going on but it may all be just old classic "pressure", with the semblance of war against Syria in order to get to the "desired results." All that the US needs is for Assad to realize that he's in a big jam and that his "salvation" is for him to shed his iranian colors once and for all. His regime is so beholden to the mullahs of Teheran that there is a major scare among the US and their allies that Iran may be building a stronghold on the meditteranean from the southern Lebanese coast all the way up to the turkish border. This is a dangerous situation that the US and its arab allies cannot tolerate. It would destabilize the region and create a powerful iranian zone of influence that could give fits to US interests in the region...The "moderate" arab countries do not want to see a destabilized Syria but they can't afford a potential iranian sattelite either. With the Iraqi leadership flirting with Iran and the syrians having their heads deep up the Mullahs arse, it is causing a major anxiety in both cairo and Ryadh that the iranians may be extending their tentacles in and around the middle east...their interests not to mention their regimes may be greatly endangered. This is why the US is stepping up and sending salvos accross the syrian regime's bow as a warning. If Assad wants a cop out, he'll get it but at the hefty price of dropping the iranian hold on his regime,otherwise the US and its arab allies may be willing to take a chance on an unstable syria without Bashar and his cronies. Israel interests collide with that of the US and the moderate arabs, they can't afford a stronger HA on their borders either...too costly and dangerous not to mention the possibility of having to fight on two fronts one in Gaza and the other on their northern border which could turn out to be a far more complicated affair.

[Min Canada]

No offense taken BV, but Tell me when was the last time I have written something on this blog's comments area and it was bogus?

News and events are full of interference and noise. Cut off the noise fine tune your focus on actual things that are happening and ask yourself why?

1- You really think the US needs to move NINE (not five) ships to the Levant coast to send a message?
2- Why this choice of ships? What do these ships do? What are they used for? (These ships were NOT chosen at random).
3- What was Condy doing here?
4- What was W doing here?
5- When was the last time an Arab Israeli war took place without the 7th fleet having assets in the region?
6- Beyond the words, what is Syria saying? What will they say tomorrow?
7- Beyond words, what is the message coming from the opposition now?
8- Why did Suleyman direct the Army to defend the country?
9- Why did SA and Kuwait (as well as others) pull their people out of Lebanon?
10- How much money is all this costing? Do you think countries park fleets off other countries for political pressure?
11- What was Condy doing here? (I know I have asked this, this one is for emphasis).
12- With the German, Italian and US ships, exactly how many NATO ships are now in the region?
13- What did the Russians say lately???
14- Do I have to go on or can you keep going from here?

We can talk local politics as much as you want. It is irrelevent. Lebanon and its presidential problem are a self made trap for the Syrian. The story is MUCH bigger than that and relates to US National Security Interestes...the ONLY reason the USA moves ships and spends the money for that.

15- What was Condy doing here?

[JoseyWales]

Andre,

Much of what you say makes sense, except that you give the idiot Arabs too much credit.

They are neither serious enough about their own security, nor savvy enough to look this far out, nor bold enough to take verbal abuse from Syria.

I mean for crying out loud, if Saudi is concerned why wait this long? Why not tell Saudis get out of SYRIA and plain saying NO frigging summit until...

Instead they play their stupid games that always end up biting then in the ass (and the Lebanese in the head).

[Andre]

JW,

Saudis and their arab counterparts tend to prefer the "kiss up" or appeasment option rather than confrontation. However things have changed dramatically since the Iraqi war. Iraq is now engaged in a brutal struggle b/w two currents that represent the opposing sides in the Mideast. Iran is making an all out effort to establish itself as an irrevocable power in the region and it is gaining momentum given the shia equation which is lining up with its own objectives. The progress Iran has made in asserting itself through its proxies in the region esp. in Lebanon and the alliance with Syria has become too big of a threat to ignore. The US knows that if Iran's influence grows stronger then its own interests in the region will be greatly threatened. The security council has already taken serious steps to sanction Iran and all EU countries are rallying behind the US. This is going to be a war of nerves and all of this armada and flexing of muscles is designed to put as much pressure and even intimidate Syria in the hopes it will accept that the survival of the Assad regime depends on distancing itself from Iran...the catch though is that it may be too late in which case the option would be to take Assad out and by extension the syrian alliance away from Iran which will hurt it greatly, not to mention its influence in Lebanon.

[Meghwar]

Min Canada,

Let's read what CNN said about Condy's visit...

"The shootings came just a day after U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who met with both Israelis and Palestinians, announced that peace talks will resume between the two both sides."

Abbas suspended peace negotiations last week after fierce fighting broke out between Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza. But he agreed to resume negotiations after meeting with Rice.
Israel will continue peace talks with the Palestinians regardless of the attack in Jerusalem, Foreign Ministry spokesman Aryeh Mekel said Thursday.

:D

Usually the secretary of state, do not pay social calls, if he/she do not have IMPORTANT messages to deliver or or other MAJOR issues with the party visited, they do not waste their time doing so, and I doubt that peace-talks are at this precise time a major issue.
They have been on hold for years they can wait a bit longer...neither Israelis nor palestinianns are going anywhere soon....
Iran and syria on the other hand are a pain in the American butt, especially concerning their Lebanese "card" and what might be done to clip HA claws, consequently undermining syria's ability of nuisance in the Lebanon, Iraq, Gaza and the Iranian plans for the Gulf region and the threat to Israel through their "Divine" proxy.

I doubt very much it was ONLY about the peace-talks and the already sunk Annapolis ship...

Also from CNN

CNN. "The deadly attack on a Jewish seminary in Jerusalem Thursday was planned by an operation with purported ties to Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group in Lebanon, Palestinian militant sources in Gaza said.
The information that the group Free Men of Galilee planned the attack was provided to CNN amid news reports that Hamas, the Palestinian movement that runs Gaza, claimed responsibility.
But sources within the Hamas military wing specifically denied to CNN any involvement in the attack.
Palestinian militant sources said Hamas leaders in the West Bank and Gaza are not claiming responsibility for the attack.
The Palestinian militant sources say the shooter was a member of Hamas but was acting on marching orders from outside Gaza and the West Bank.
Hezbollah is based in Lebanon; Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal is exiled in Syria."

Here you have it, another Israeli ground preparation as to the motives, causes ( lately the Israeli newspapers were covering much of HA Military Capabilities, Arsenals, armed forces, in Beqaa and on the northern border of Litani, implying that Hizb has received missiles that could reach Demona and are a serious threat not to be taken lightly" Kinda preparing the Int'l community and the public opinion for things to come...Actually since the Qataris UNIFIL unit decided to withdraw I have been expecting the worse.

BTW, I have heard from friends that many "cadres" and high ranking "Personnel" of HA are making sure that their families leave south, beqaa and dahieh, either to Syria-Iran or to other accomodating countries, now as if to prove them right, I have read that an abnormal number of demands is flooding the Surete Generale for issuing new passports ( or deliver renewed ones ) and more than 80% of the total demands is for shia !

IT is going to be very UGLY...but I HOPE TO GOD this TIME Assad will get his "ASSAD'S SHARE" of the coming "Shoah" !

[Craig]

Min Canada,

2- Why this choice of ships? What do these ships do? What are they used for? (These ships were NOT chosen at random).

That's a good point. Why amphibious assault ships, instead of aircraft carriers? Do you know the answer? I don't. However, I don't think they will land Marines in either Syria or Lebanon without at least one aircraft carrier in support. So when a carrier group (or two) is deployed in the area, that's when it is time to be alarmed. Although I suppose that in the event of an operation against Syria, aircraft can be flown from fields in Anbar province.

From an earlier comment:

I wish we could keep track of the fleet units especially the transport units. A call to port by the troop carriers may be KEY in the timing of a war. Ships don't usually travel with their full load of troops. These are transported to nearby freindly cities and then board the ships when needed.

You know what you are talking about, there. Although Marines are not hosted in "friendly cities" - they are either at a US base in the region, or they are deployed in the field someplace, for routine training exercises. You are quite correct that the MEU's are not aboard ship any more than necessary. We have Marine Expeditionary Units deployed all over the world, constantly. They spend most of their time in the field, not aboard ship.

We will never be told about when of course.

You are right, of course. And the ships do not have to make a port call to pick up their Marines. An MEU has sufficient helicopters and amphibious craft to move the troops and their equipment from a deployment area directly to the fleet at sea. Essentially an amphibious landing, in reverse :)

It won't be announced. But it will be noticeable, for those who pay attention. But I'm still suspicious. It doesn't make much sense to me, to conduct an amphibious operation against Syria when the US has so many Marines already in Anbar. Perhaps deploying troops from Iraq would cause a diplomatic crisis for the Iraqi government...

[Andre]

Meghwar,

Condy's real purpose by reading between the lines was to keep the negotiations alive between Israel and the Abbas led Palestininan authority. Bush has committed to a solution before his term expires while visiting the region, and his credibility is at stake. Unfortunately, leaving Hamas out of these negotiations is proving to be a mistake as they do have the ability to influence public opinion by "absorbing" israeli retaliation on civilians including their savage disproportionate response that causes outrage in the world, which in turn puts a lot of pressure on Abbas. The thing about these negotiations is that they are inextricably tied to regional politics and trying to bypass them is naive at best, hence the failed approach of US foreign policy with respect to the israeli palestinian conflict.

[Meghwar]

JW,

Saudis are fed up with both Syria and Iran, it is not as if the arabs are going to take active part in this coming war, mind you ...they, as usual will only sit back and watch Al-Jazeera or Al -Arabia while others do THEIR job for them.

Until now, Israelis saving Assad regime, he is still in his "Muhajirine" palace and he owes it to Olmert, but not only, Arabs were afraid of ending up with another iraq on their hands, in case USA wanted to interfere, now that their OWN regimes are threatened of becoming another Iraq, they are ready to nod their acquiescence to the USA to deliver them from the Iranian imperialist plans for the region....and in the same token to repay Assad his "courtesy" ( after July war he called them half-men) and make him taste his own medicine...just to make him eat his own words...you know Arabs carry grudges...and revenge is a life-style...( rolling eyes )

The USA are not the next church children's choir ...nor the altruistic philanthropist...they do nothing for free, and definitely if it wasn't to protect THEIR INTERESTS in the Region…they wouldn’t be giving a hoot....no one is fooling himself about this...
which brings us back to Israel...are they ready now,( or convinced ) that as long as Assad is around ...they will be having not only hamas at their door but HA on their THROAT, or do they still believe that weakened and vassal to Iran Assad could maintain the status-quo, I even go further to question if Israel wants the Syria-Lebanon situation going back to status-quo ante ?? Thinking only Syria can stop HA (as Syrian tried to trick the Israelis through all of these years and succeeded)?
We will have our answer SOON!

[Meghwar]

Andre,
That I am fully aware of this matter's aspect, but what do you think might stop all this charade if not another war? Israel usually save their butt by opening other sudden fronts ... and telling the whole world "see for yourselves we are being attacked on all fronts and all you do is whine when we respond.... we need to defend ourselves..."
the usual play Andre...and this time they NEED to REPAY HIZB and HARD...also Israeli want to save face !! Their Military make took a blow in 2006.
Israel is not ready for peace now, and not ready to give up land for peace, as long as they rely on people like Assad to do their dirty deeds, they are fine with skirmishes on their north front, but when HA trespassed the red-lines ( shooting rockets into the heart of Israel ) Syria took a hit ( in that supposedly nuclear facility ) and after another hit which is Mughniyeh...whether they took part in offing him or not ...Iran is now SUSPICIOUS....of its ally….why do you think there is always an Iranian “diplomat” in Syria ???? Especially nowadays?
The whole world knows that bush woke up a bit late to manage any viable and fruitful Palestinian-Israeli peace talks...and not one single sane person was convinced of this masquerade at the last months of his term of office !!!
However, if it is going to take Bush another war to save face by clipping the claws of Iran , syria and mostly with the ascent of the Arabs ( like father like son ) believe me he is going to do it and tell the world “here I saved you from the Axis of evil” no Nuclear threat and No Iranian threats to anyone…do you think he will let this occasion pass by ???? !! I doubt !

[Meghwar]

Guys latest news

Salloukh just declared his readiness to head Lebanse delegation to Arab summit :D

YEEEEHAAAAA SALLOUKH saved the day !!!!!!!!!! LOL

[Andre]

Megwar's quote above:

"However, if it is going to take Bush another war to save face by clipping the claws of Iran..."

Bush can't get involved in a war against Iran at this time, not with his hands tied in Iraq and Afghanistan, I also doubt he would want to take on a war like this while the US is in election mode, it would not do his party a whole lot of good if things go bad. However, pressuring a vulnerable Syria with many issues hanging in the balance including IT, the possibilities are much better...I think a limited war on Syria, if it happens, is more of a logical option to get quick results vs a war against Iran which most likely will be long and has many complications...Bush will not hand another war to his successor, besides congress or american public opinion will not go along with it. No outgoing president has that much clout to do this. If flexing muscles do not change Syria's behavior then look for a limited engagement against Assad's regime.

[Min Canada]

Meghwar,

You got it my friend! Andre, what you are reading is the narative that they want you to read. Look deeper. Question everything. Did she really have to travel here for something she could have done on the phone?

Craig,

What was the most successful action that the Israelis took in 2006 war? It was an action that betrayed some vulnrabilites in the HA armore. Think outside the box. That is how this war will be conducted. I don't think I am giving any secrets away, but I can assure you that the area south of the Litani will not be the theatre. The Americans will not conduct combat opperations in Syria. Israel will be conducting the majority of the operations unless/until Iran comes into the game.

Regarding the Air support: Why do we always keep missing the obvious? LOL. Why do they need an air craft carrier when they have the top air bases in the region in Israel?

[Min Canada]

Andre, Bush's hands are NOT tied in Iraq for God's sake man think a bit. The airforce is NOT operating in Iraq at all!!!!! The Navy is sunbathing!!!!! The army and marines are in the quagmire in Iraq. What better way to deflect things than to kick some butt! Winning is everything in the USA.

[danny]

sorry to disagree with you dude, min canada...All these seem way too far fetched. I have to agree with BV. However, if you turn out to be right, well cheers to you and amen to all!!
Condy's travells do not mean diddly to me. She is Secretary of State not defence(pentagon)...If it were Gates/Cheney or any of the neocons, maybe!
As for Republicans needing a war to get presidency...Dude they do not need more of the same. Again unless Israel was under duress!!

Cheers

[Marillionlb]

US will not go to war against Syria.
The Arabic summit will take place (minus a few countries).
We will see more VIOLENT riots in Beirut, which will lead to civil war.
Suleiman will be APPOINTED president and will show his true colours (Syrian that is).
Syria will regain control of Lebanon via its allies.
And many people will emigrate.

Unlike you BV I live in Lebanon, and sad to say I have reached a point where I just want all this to end even if it means war. I Still maintain that the only way for Lebanon to survive is if one side WINS over the other. "Cohabitation" in Lebanon does not work. One of two choices either a free independent Lebanon, or an Islamic state tied to Iran Syria and the Palestinian problem. Both cannot survive together.
That is my vision of things to come, nevertheless I will keep on investing in Lebanon in the hope that the second choice mentioned above will never happen.
For those of you who still go out to dine and wine check out if you have the time my new place in Gemayze La Estencia (authentic Argentinian restaurant)and EL Gardel a pub with a Latin tint. Situated on the 1st and 2nd floor above "Le Rouge."
AK I hope you don't mind the add !

[Meghwar]

Andre,
I will try to explain in detail, my perspective on the situation in the region, it is going to be a bit long, so please bear with. hence I will not need it again.
I do not think that USA hands are tied in Iraq …bcz if so , Bush should have given up and bargained with both Syria and Iran on Iraq, Gaza and Lebanon 3 years ago.
Syria was invited to Annapolis because of Israeli insistence, Ahmedinejad’s safety was literally sustained by American troops ( Green zone ) though invisible during photo op.!!!
Both Syria and Iran cannot afford to let the USA withdraw now from Iraq knowing that the whole Area would be on fire the moment the last GI boots leave the Iraqi soil, though they declare to the contrary …and I must add, both countries do not want to see their unique card of pressure on Americans vanish, Syria knows what leaked through their borders into Iraq…and those people do not take orders from Assad neither Ahmedinejad , and usually if you feed a monster it will end up eating you….just like USA and ben laden.
Bush can withdraw whenever he wishes, then sit back and watch the Iraqi fire build up again and catch the tails of Iran and Syria, what is keeping Americans there is the necessity of securing their oil fields…their moderate Arab allies are taken care of already.
David Welch a coupla days ago, was in Egypt and he said that the American administration is “concerned with the Syrian people and their safety under an oppressive regime such as Assad’s“ On the surface it might sound the usual diplomatic babble , but taking a closer look at it we can discern changes although subtle…
We all remember that the US since 2005 insisted that they do not want to “behead” the regime but want Assad to modify and alter his stances in the region. ( thinking at that time that Syria might play a role in the region and Iraq’s stability, now they are sure of the CONTRARY) which gives the perspective and importance of Welch ‘s declaration, Syria is not believed to be the Stability Active Player anymore, as Assad tried to convince others. This is not to be taken lightly, I sense that the US is fed up with the Assad regime and are ready to take drastic measures about; it reminds me of the pre-Iraq invasion period!!
Iran knows that there are red lines not to trespass despite their big mouth and hot aired slogans.
Syria is nothing but a pawn to Iran and Israel, and nuisance to Arabs especially Lebanon, holding on because of Iran and Israel. (which prove IMHO that Israel and Iran are still somehow collaborating to control the Gulf region and the Arabs though indirectly) And I do believe that ISRAEL by covering Syria they somehow did cover for the Mullahs as well in Iran, accepting implicitly the “Natural “ ground Lebanon to vent, but I think Hizb screw up the irani-israeli tacit agreement in 2006…because Syria/Israel was behind it and not Iran.. Syrians continue in Lebanon as Planned which is more than baneful to Israeli, Occupying and drawning hizb in internal Lebanese mud, is more than welcomed, not to mention Hizb inner conflict ( between the pro-syrian branch and the pro-Iranian branch was more than obvious before Mughniyeh offing – Nassrallah /Qassem if you may).
Bush won’t be declaring war literally on Iran, and that what I was talking about this whole week, LEBANON is going to be the spark to a regional battle, ( not war in its full sense), now if Israel is willing to lift up the cover off assad’s butt, then we will see how much the Iranians are willing to risk to save their ally and their passdarans in Lebanon, if they do try to help Syria and Hizb, that is when the air strikes might hit some nuclear facilities in Iran among other things…Hizb can shoot all of the missiles on Israel ( here I might add that the Lebanese might not stay united like in 2006 …..if you get what I mean …) but it would be too late ! It is kinda “start something in Lebanon but end it where you really WANT to end it and mostly FOLLOW the plan. Contrary to what happened in 2006…
By the way I think that Turkey also will have at least a balancing role in the whole ( far fetched maybe ) scenario, but the green light given by US to the turks in Kurdistan is not for FREE. They are the channel between Syria and Israel on one hand and also a Military Force to reckon with, especially on the Iraqi north fronts…JUST IN CASE Syria wants to use the Kurds card against it…( as well as Iran , they have kurds too you know )
May be it is far fetched but it is how I am reading the situation, A war is going to happen …and it is going to start in Lebanon, call me naïve or a pessimist ( or optimist it depends …. ) I am sure that USA will do whatever it takes to keep Lebanon and the Gulf area out of the Iranian control…even if it‘ll take another “war”.
One last thing, I do not think Russia would accept Iranian turbaned psychos with nuclear arms and missiles to deliver them as a neighbor… V.Putine is more intelligent than to Stand in the Way of the US on this issue …when they could save his Russian butt from nuclear Iran…. Hence Russia did not veto the last UNSC resolution …nor China for that matter.

[Meghwar]

Correction

Syrians continue in Lebanon as Planned which is more than baneful to Israeli ....

should read

More than BENEFICIAL to Israeli....

[Vodka]

Prof Walid Fares mentioned this evening on LBC program(Al Hadath)that HA rocket arsenal extends from the south,to Jezzine,Beqaa and Akkar in north lebanon.He said it was no secret and is on an internet site .Anyone know which website?Thx.

[Bad Vilbel]

MarillionB,

I think of all the scenarios being discussed here, I think your latest comment seems to be the closest to the truth, or at least, to what I think is going to happen.

We'll see...

[Jay]

MarillionB,

Let's suppose for a moment that the scenario of Iran/Syria/HA gaining control of Lebanon materializes, what's the ramifications of such an event? How would these entities behave the day after, would Syria stop exporting terrorism? Would HA end its disastrously ridiculous ambitions, whether internally or those relating to Israel, would it tone down its rhetoric and resort to the rule of law?

I think the answer is an unequivocal no. On the contrary, these terrorists will be more emboldened to continue their sick and twisted agenda. Something the entire world can't afford to let prevail.

[Bad Vilbel]

Jay,

You don't have to look far to answer those questions. 1990-2005 is a good example of what happens when Syria dominates Lebanon.

We'd be going back to that.

Of course Syria/Iran/HA would not stop exporting terrorism. It has been demonstrated pretty clearly that those countries need to foment instability around them, rather than work towards peace, in order to preserve their regimes.

[Meghwar]

BV,

"1990-2005 is a good example of what happens when Syria....” convinces the world that hell will break lose if they withdraw from Lebanon, the element of 40 years of stability in Golan was used also on Israelis, the slogan was “ We are your best allies or do you want to rplace us by psychos with guns whom will SURELY make a mess in Golan”????

The USA accepted what Israelis wanted !

Apart from that Assad couldn’t have stayed a single second in Lebanon.
Now this refrain is convincing no one …The whole world is aware that instability is served and distributed by Syria/Iran and their proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Gaza.

That is the new and very IMPORTANT FACTOR to consider. A worldwide distrusted regime means its end!

Danny, Cheney is coming mate,
I have read this today in L’Orient le jour

15h55 GMT Cheney au Proche Orient pour "rassurer" sur l'engagement américain (Bush)

It is going to be ugly....

[Bad Vilbel]

Yeah. It's funny. A couple of days ago, we gave Min Canada flack about Condi visiting the region. And someone (Danny, i think) said "If it was Gates or Cheney then I'd start worrying."...Sure enough...

Interesting things are happening...And it's going to get ugly before it gets better.

[Andre]

Actually, I read in many articles that the tendency is for a major disengagement of forces in the region and the lowering of tensions. Israel's fiasco in Gaza and public opinion against its military adventure have backfired. Hamas militia have also showed some unexpected resiliency which has slowed down Israeli operations and casting major doubts in Israel's ability to root them out. Iran is not willing to risk another HA war with Israel although sayyed Nasrallah has declared an "open" one not too long ago. The syrians are also wary that a war may drag them in, and they are not eager to test their military prowess, not when parts of the 6th fleet is sunbathing near by. Thus, it looks like Cheney is coming to reassure his arab allies that there will be no conflict, but instead work on a strategy to "contain" Iran and to continue pressuring the syrians into distancing themselves from Iran...perhaps there's a deal on the table. No oone knows for sure, but it looks as if things are settling down a bit. Remember this is an election year, and a regional war has plenty of risks for the US something they probably would want to avoid. Then again who knows with GW Bush.

[danny]

Andre,

I agree that there is no war forthcoming. Hassan declared his open war only to "clarify" that Israel has had an open conflict with Lebanon from 1948(after Iran scolded him I'm sure)...As for the USA, there will not fight others' wars! The redeployment of some destroyers are for increasing the heat on Syria...basically letting them know that they are not buying into their threats!!I disagree that there's any lowering of the "tensions". On the contrary I think USA is challenging Amjad, Hassan and Bashar to live up to their empty rhetoric...They are daring them to start a war if they can! The warning is if they start anything it will not be confined to South Lebanon...Cheney's visit is to brief and reassure the Arab states that the agreed upon strategy of isolating Syria and Iran is still on...
UN has assigned a secretariat for the IT, and there's movement to start the prelimenary work on the tribunal after the first report by Belamaire.

Maybe there's no war but the heat is being ratcheted up by USA on Iran and Syria to make their next move. The sword is the IT and we can all see where it is hanging now...

[Andre]

I agree Danny. We're basically saying the same things and you are absolutely right in that IT is the piece in this equation that might tip the balance depending on how Syria reacts. We should however be concerned that the US and EU along with some arab countries may be willing to give Syria a carrot while showing the stick in order to make it more attractive for them to take some steps away from Iran, hence the iranians diplomatic efforts ratcheted up in Damascus late last week in order to counter the efforts that are under way to try and get Assad to change his position vis a vis Iran. Nothing is for certain at this time and the waters are just way too murky to have a good read on things in typical Middle Eastern fashion.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

BV,
"...Yeah. It's funny. A couple of days ago, we gave Min Canada flack about Condi visiting the region. And someone (Danny, i think) said "If it was Gates or Cheney then I'd start worrying."...Sure enough...
Interesting things are happening...And it's going to get ugly before it gets better".

And today's Falon's rezignation...!!
.

[Renee]

Adm. Fallon resigns!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23578902/

[Andre]

Apparently he resigned because he is not in agreement with the white house regarding their hawkish policy on Iran. It looks as if there was talk of a strike against iranian targets and he basically resigned rather than tow Bush's line. Sounds like something is or was in the works???? Take this development coupled with the uptick in violence against US forces in Iraq and you have a pattern emerging here...perhaps the iranians are reminding the US that its war in Iraq is far from over and before they take action against Iran perhaps they should worry about their own delicate situation there. I expect Sadr's militia to be back on the streets if Iran is attacked not to mention HA in Lebanon in a coordinated move to counter attack...it will then get real ugly.

[Meghwar]

Put a Marine instead and everything will be fine ...!

[Solomon2]

"As for the USA, there will not fight others' wars! "

That's a rather sweeping statement. If Kuwait wasn't enough for you, how do you explain Kosovo? After all, the U.S. itself had NO economic or security interests of its own at stake.

[danny]

Solomon,

"If Kuwait wasn't enough for you, how do you explain Kosovo? After all, the U.S. itself had NO economic or security interests of its own at stake"...????????

Are you saying this with a straight face? You are really kidding, right?USA has no economic interests in the GULF???

As for KOsovo, my friend it is always stategically important for USA to desimate the Russian influence. Balkans were and always are a very strategic position. Sorry but you are mistaken on both counts based on your premise NOT MINE...

[Solomon2]

How "mistaken" can I be? "Russian influence" was not at all a factor in any of the debates I recall preceeding the U.S. intervention. Rather, the U.S. did it for humanitarian purposes (reacting to Milosevic's ethnic cleansing policies) and to prevent political embarassment of its NATO allies. Generals who objected too much to Russian activities were given the boot - including one hot-head who eventually ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004.

Saying the U.S. wasn't fighting "other people's battles" in Kosovo is a real stretch. In other theaters, the U.S. comes as close to being an altruistic combatant as it gets - none better. In the past, No one I've read disputes that Lebanon benefited from the U.S. intervention in 1958. The majority of Iraqis today have woken up to the fact that American troops aren't there to rape their women and create an empire, but to see Iraqis through to self-rule. The list goes on and on.

The important part is that pro-U.S. politicians have to be brave enough to take a stand in such matters. Lebanese leaders love life too much to risk speaking openly. Syria/Hezbollah/Iran can thus point to the Lebanese as proof positive that terror works. Instead, Lebanese will clutch at any straw to assure themselves that their fate is being decided elsewhere. This belief creates reality and thus the doom of Lebanon approaches once more.