Lebanese Shia fleeing Nasrallah's open war prospect

As a follow up to the post, Nasrallah managed to spook own supporters, AFP has reported that the demands for Lebanese passports among residents of Hizbullah-controlled areas has tripled since Nasrallah's open war declaration. AFP quoted a source in Tyre as saying that entire families are applying for passports, with the number of applications reaching 300-400 daily (up from 50-75 prior to Nasrallah's speech).

Looks like nobody living outside of Nasrallah's hiding hole is interested in another "divine" catastrophe.

Comments

[Aussie Leb downunder]

Is Nasrallah the first one in the queue saving his own butt...

[Bad Vilbel]

Well, it's about time the sheeple started realizing they were being lead to the slaughter (apt metaphore). Better late than never, I suppose.

Sadly, there are still enough brainwashed young men out there to do Nassrallah's bidding...

[Vodka]

.......and after they get their passports where are these unfortunate families heading to?Iran /Syria ? or to the land of the great Satan ?

[Jeha]

Not sure about the real impact;

1- A Lebanese passport is of little use if you have no visa, so we're mostly "prisoners" here.

2- Lack of leadership or vision of those who claim March 14 is Nasrallah's best boost. Many are stuck with him, as many are stuck with Aoun, Geagea, ...

Many feel they have no alternative but to follow the current jailers of their sects. They trust the other jailers even less.

[JoseyWales]

All very good and dandy and true,

The problem remains that, for the most part, reasonable people left or are leaving and WON'T get involved or even speak, whereas the nuts are ready to throw grenades, demonstrate and threaten at the drop of a hat.

All the while, those same nuts are left alone by the state, and uncriticized by the press (e.g. Berri's thugs firing in the air, Berri untouched).

I keep saying the state/gvmnt/M14 (not just current fuckhead Seniora but all those before)never had a vision or a plan or a strategy to counter the, then PLO plans, and now Syrian-Hezbo shit.

There is no consistent effort to DELIGITIMIZE Nasrallah and his thugs, no effort to turn the passport seekers into political allies, no effort to say the obvious: that the next war ought to be on NASRALLAH head (like the last one), let alone an effort to threaten to throw the son of bitch in jail should he start the next war.

[JoseyWales]

I might add:

That passport or not, those with American passports who were evacuated with me in 2006, courtesy of the US Navy, were STILL idiotic Hezbo supporters. I could see it in their eyes.

When Eastern Euros fled communism they were or became rabid anti-commies.

No such luck here, in yet another sign of how demented our culture is and how deep is the predicament of the region.

[JoseyWales]

Sorry me again,

Speaking of lack of vision, or rather BLINDNESS, linked headline in the left column, here:

Sfeir says Leb "near" abyss.

Hahaha, you've hit the bottom of the abyss, you fool, over a year ago.

[Solomon2]

Couldn't read the Arabic, but this story is probably the same:
http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=24783.

In that case, AS, I think you may be misinterpreting its import. It is those Lebanese Shia who DON'T have a Hezbollah connection who are reportedly making plans to flee, expecting war to break out. Apparently Hezbollis and their families feel assured that war won't start anytime soon, or if it does, that they will be safe enough.

[Bad Vilbel]

Josey, indeed....

Don't you wish you could personally slap each and every one of these idiots in the face? Specially those fellow evacuees you speak of, who despite benefiting from all the perks of US citizenship, freedom, etc. choose to still support Hizballah.

Hypocrisy in Lebanon has NO BOUNDS. NONE.

And of course, I agree with you on every single point you've made (including the lack of leadership from March 14).

As i said on your blog. Not a day goes by that I don't think the Lord for having gotten the fuck out of that hellhole. And unlike a lot of people, I have no interest in returning or visiting anytime soon. I'll set foot in Lebanon again the day the Lebanese people stop being stupid mindless idiots, and the day we have a functional state. Not a day sooner. And I realize that means it probably won't be in my lifetime. Heh.

[enoyna]

In my opinion, it is when you believe that Nasrallah tells the truth that you would believe that war is likely to break out. It is Hezbollah that threatened the "open war". It is Naim Qassem who threatened that other israeli soldiers may be abducted if no exchange deal happens. So I don't think that Hezollah supporters are the people least likely to believe that a war would break out.

[maverick]

In a war of attrition...patience is the name of the game.the Internal conflict in lebanon is a cold war of attrition,at most exchanging verbal blows and threatening each other.Like the war of the trenches,its played out until the other side breaks first,and those who lose patience storm their troops across the field only to get slaugheterd.
March 14 cannot battle with hizbollah head on,instead,they are playing patience,with an added element of pressure.In prticular,Joumblatt and geagea.
So,i dont see the point in direct collision....we just have to be patient,both,to march 14's spineless strategy or what seems to be,and Hizbollahs ever increasing capitulation.Time will tell,but were not in the abyss just yet.

[Bad Vilbel]

We've been in the abyss since 1948, actually.

[Andre]

It isn't just the shias who are leaving the country because of fear and despair...and if this trend continues the country's predicament will only turn to worse. Hassan Nasrallah and his cronies out to be ashamed of themselves because of the way that they have mortgaged the future of the country to a bunch of foreigners and their cause. They should by now realize how futile their policies are! HA areas still lying in ruins in the wake of that awful war in 2006, an economy that just keeps getting worse and a bunch of mercenaries and thugs working for them whose duty is to intimidate and terrorize the population including the legitimate armed forces. If war is to come, then let them all go to hell where they belong! Mughniye will be there waiting for them and they can all rot together until it freezes over.

[Solomon2]

"If war is to come, then let them all go to hell where they belong! Mughniye will be there waiting for them and they can all rot together until it freezes over."

Which exactly conforms to the plan of the Iranian mullahs. Southern Lebanon gets destroyed in a war with Israel and Iran then establishes domination over most of the Middle East through the terror of its armed satrapies, just as in previous millenia. How is that for human progress? The plan is moving forward and remains on track - unless and until the day a Lebanese leader stands up and says, as noisily as possible, that it is time for Lebanon to switch allegiances and aim for freedom rather than servitude.

There is still time for that, but time is running out. Certainly the death of Imad Mughniyeh has created a more relaxed window of opportunity, for while the investigation in Muggie's death is ongoing, how can his remaining terror network undertake "wet" operations in Lebanon? They don't know who their Lebanese enemy is, or they would have attacked them instead of Israel.

Yes, there is still time - but Lebanon is wilting. If no one steps forward, then when time runs out Lebanese will look around and say, "There wasn't anything we could do!"

Such a comforting excuse. Doesn't it sound like hypocrisy on my part to counsel people to be brave when I don't share their dangers? Yet does that excuse Lebanon from doing what will save a large part of the country from utter destruction?

If you can't fight the battle at home, you can depart and fight the battle abroad. It was the exiles from Nazi Europe who helped develop many of the weapons that defeated the Axis powers in WWII. It was French exiles and honored turncoats like Talleyrand who took the lead in convincing the rest of Europe to stamp out Napoleon once he became a tyrant. And it was exiles from Saddam's Iraq who convinced two administrations to depose their dictator.

Don't hide under a rock. Life is beautiful, yes. Wealth is great, yes. But does it really feel good to have a full belly when your soul is empty or full of hatred? Especially if doom is on the horizon? Is there no Lebanese leader out there willing to risk his life to change this?

[Meghwar]

I hate to say it but I told you so one week ago...remember ??

JW, couldn't have said it better ...

Danny,
From the looks of it..I feel like March14 are "FARTEEN" and have no clue what they were doing, are doing, or gonna do !

let's read the latest of Ahmadimidget

"Ahmadinejad: No President, No Government in Lebanon before End of Bush's Term
Diplomatic sources close to Tehran on Wednesday quoted Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as telling a high-ranking Arab official that Lebanon will not have a new President or a new government before the end of U.S. President George Bush's term Jan. 20, 2009.
Meanwhile, a French diplomatic source familiar with Iran's policy, said Tehran was "waiting for a change in the U.S. administration before it decides whether it wants negotiations on the nuclear issue."

The source said Iran's priority "is to negotiate with Washington, not with Europeans."

"If Tehran decides to negotiate with a new U.S. Administration, then it would want comprehensive talks including its role in Iraq in return for the nuclear issue, just as Syria wants to negotiate its role in Iraq in exchange for Lebanon," the French source said.
Beirut, 12 Mar 08, 13:25

http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&CEDD6B91E8B8D97EC225740A0056268B

Any reaction in Lebanon ??? No summoning the Iranian Ambassador to Saniorita office ???? Isn't it interfering and OBSTRUCTING in Lebanese elections as well as the "Great Satan" was accused of just yesterday by BERRI????

I mean when that blessed day will come, when all of the opposition leaders would be dragged out of their rat holes by their necks and put in jail for high treason???? When March 14 will grow some balls and elect with 50 + 1 , when will we see the tents circus in DT destroyed and all the rats kicked back to their garbage cans ???

The whole situation is becoming pathetic to say the least!

[Andre]

Yup...everyone gets to decide Lebanon's fate while the lebanese themselves make senseless comments and engage in recrimination. Kind of reminds me of the roman emperor Nero who was playing his fiddle while Rome was burning, yet he himself conspired to burn it down. That's exactly what our great leaders are doing, allowing the country to collapse under an ever growing list of problems from security threats, to grotesque external interference to an economy on the verge of collapse. It's mind boggling how far the country has fallen yet no one seems to truly care. Knid of playing the same tunes as if all is well.

[JoseyWales]

I agree with most of all of you.

But Solly Habibi, I'll tell you this: I blog and comment because it's fun and I blow off steam, better than blowing a vein.

I am not sticking my neck out (anymore) because there is a bare fucking minimum from my compatriots, in Leb and overseas, that is plain MISSING.

2 short examples:

--Ex-pats, Aoun and the Syria accountability act. Can anyone frigging believe the aftermath of that?

--Traitor, fuck, and major POS Berri accuses the US of blocking the prez election, when the creep can't bring himself to get a roll call on who's present and who's absent on the frigging 56 election occasions, and our stupid people and press don't call him on it??

Harsh and callous as it sounds: I care NOT,and sympathize NOT with my brothers anymore.

[Bad Vilbel]

"If war is to come, then let them all go to hell where they belong! Mughniye will be there waiting for them and they can all rot together until it freezes over."

YES! Let them indeed.

"Which exactly conforms to the plan of the Iranian mullahs."

I disagree. If war is to come, all these idiots, as well as the Iranian mullahs and the Syrian regime will wish to whatever Satans they worship that they had not started a war. It will be very costly, in human life, for the Arab world, and Lebanon, but make no mistake of it, when all is said and done, the US will STILL be a superpower. American civilians in the US will still be living the way they normally do. The middle east, on the other hand, will be flattened into a parking lot.

[Bad Vilbel]

+1 to what Josey just said. My compatriots can all rot in hell. I could care less. For the same reason Josey just stated. There's a BARE MINIMUM that they can't even bring themselves to do. All I see is hypocrisy and complete and utter stupidity (and I'm STILL being kind using those words). Monkeys have more common sense and rational brain function than the majority of my compatriots.
So yeah. They can all go rot in hell.

[danny]

Chill guys,

You guys are all right on! We knew this from the begginning. Are there any surprises? I'd say; NO. Aside from a glimmer of hope after March 14, 2005, where most of the nation had an "almost erection", everything has been downhill as per the history of our brethren...

Michael Young has a good analysis on the Amjad's Mullahs, game plan in the daily star...

We lasted this long, I think we should not bolt yet. We can give it another few months. (I know it will be worse by then but what the hell).

Positives (if we can call them that)
a. USA and EU pressure is building up on Syria. Russia is getting in a bit of pissy mood too.

b. ISF and special units in the army are being trained continuously to defend the "state" ...most likely against the Hizb. That's why March 14 does not seem too anxious to "gun up"!!

c. IT is coming...

d. Fissures are showing in Orangebutt's clan. Murr's direct accusation of Tayyar Maronite MPs of screwing up the elections. The rep for High Shiite council accused Aoun of obstruction as well.

e. Syria and Iran are feeling some kind of a draft...

f. So far KSA has not bent over for Syria.

The hell guys, I said it before, it suits the March 14 better that the status quo stays until and when IT is operational!!! Seniora's government is March 14th best bet! Any other prez or government and they'll lose the total control that they have now. Trust me they'll never control all Lebanon until and when the mullah's are neutered!!

If there's a war between Israel and the black turbines, I'm certain it will not be contained within Lebanese borders alone!!

This is too long...One more thought...Think about it!!

They are jacking up the price of oil relentlessly when we know that the market price should be around 40$...
I think once it gets to the point where a strike on Iran will not shake the price further, then BOOMMM...
You see I think the war on Iran is being "priced in". I think $140 a barrel might be the tipping point. Let me know what you think!

Cheers...time for a single malt!

[danny]

Chill guys,

You guys are all right on! We knew this from the begginning. Are there any surprises? I'd say; NO. Aside from a glimmer of hope after March 14, 2005, where most of the nation had an "almost erection", everything has been downhill as per the history of our brethren...

Michael Young has a good analysis on the Amjad's Mullahs, game plan in the daily star...

We lasted this long, I think we should not bolt yet. We can give it another few months. (I know it will be worse by then but what the hell).

Positives (if we can call them that)
a. USA and EU pressure is building up on Syria. Russia is getting in a bit of pissy mood too.

b. ISF and special units in the army are being trained continuously to defend the "state" ...most likely against the Hizb. That's why March 14 does not seem too anxious to "gun up"!!

c. IT is coming...

d. Fissures are showing in Orangebutt's clan. Murr's direct accusation of Tayyar Maronite MPs of screwing up the elections. The rep for High Shiite council accused Aoun of obstruction as well.

e. Syria and Iran are feeling some kind of a draft...

f. So far KSA has not bent over for Syria.

The hell guys, I said it before, it suits the March 14 better that the status quo stays until and when IT is operational!!! Seniora's government is March 14th best bet! Any other prez or government and they'll lose the total control that they have now. Trust me they'll never control all Lebanon until and when the mullah's are neutered!!

If there's a war between Israel and the black turbines, I'm certain it will not be contained within Lebanese borders alone!!

This is too long...One more thought...Think about it!!

They are jacking up the price of oil relentlessly when we know that the market price should be around 40$...
I think once it gets to the point where a strike on Iran will not shake the price further, then BOOMMM...
You see I think the war on Iran is being "priced in". I think $140 a barrel might be the tipping point. Let me know what you think!

Cheers...time for a single malt!