Changing Pi

Refreshing words from Walid Jumblatt. Unlike Siniora, who wants to wait until after the March 25th session, Jumblatt and his bloc will vote against attending the Damascus summit:

أكد رئيس اللقاء الديمقراطي النائب وليد جنبلاط ان وزراءه في الحكومة سيصوتون ضد المشاركة في قمة دمشق، واتهم النظام السوري بأنه يقف وراء الاغتيالات في لبنان والحروب الاستباقية. وقال: "الصمود يعني رفض الذهاب الى قمة دمشق وهو رفع الاجور وتخصيص الكهرباء وهو المحكمة والجيش ". واكد ان "حتى لو حضر القادة العرب القمة يجب على لبنان ان لا يحضر" و سيكون موقف وزراء اللقاء الديمقراطي واضحًا بعدم الذهاب الى دمشق.

ووصف جنبلاط في حديث إلى قناة "أخبار المستقبل" المشاركة في القمة بـ"الغباء والخيانة لكل مبادئ ثورة الأرز"، مشيرا الى انه "من غير المنطقي أن تذهب الضحية لمصافحة الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد لأن في ذلك خيانة لكل أدبياتنا السياسية والأخلاقية منذ 14 آذار 2005"، وكشف عن نيته الطلب من وزيري "اللقاء الديمقراطي" في الحكومة التصويت ضد مشاركة لبنان في القمة.

Jumblatt described participation in the summit as "utter idiocy" and "treason", noting that it's "illogical" for the "victim to shake hands with the Syrian president because this betrays all our moral and political ideals since March 14th, 2005".

And that's how it should be. Damascus should not be rewarded with a visit by a Lebanese official before it recognizes the country's sovereignty and independence. I would add that the March 14 movement should make it clear that it will not vote for Suleiman if he intends on making Syria the first country he visits after his election (that's if he is elected).

Many saw Syria's invitation as offensive in form. They are right. But the Assad regime is the one suffering the most humiliation here. By sending a low ranking official to deliver the invitation to a resigned minister, they proved to be the cowards we all thought they were. If the Syrian regime had self-respect, and is truly the bastion of dignity it claims to be, it will have had men with courage to face the prime minister of Lebanon. The man that Bashar called slave of a slave, and his "half-men" friends, see more sunlight than the dictator and his fundamentalist hole-dweller buddy—despite being targets of Assad's terrorist network. It must hurt to see your enemies grow in stature, while you sink into self-inflicted humiliation.

Much to Bashar's dismay, March 14 persevered and did not disintegrate along confessional lines, as he had hoped. Rival Sunni and Druze groups failed and will fail to attract people away from the likes of Hariri and Jumblatt. Michel Aoun saw his stature shrink locally and internationally after jumping ship and betting on the Hizbullah-Assad horse. Not even the Islamist splinter group run by pro-Syrian Fathi Yakan could survive. Last week saw hundreds of its cadres defect and bash the leadership for being a Syrian tool.

As a former man of science, Bashar should have known that 3.14 is an impossible combination to beat. In 2005, it was the birth of a popular anti-Syrian movement. Even Aoun chose the date to launch his ill-fated and badly calculated liberation war against Syria in 1989. Those who appreciate science will add that 3.14 is the birthday of Albert Einstein, and the approximate value of Pi, one of the most important mathematical constants.

So allow me to go on a limb and declare fake the orgasm the Damascus regime is predicting it will have after the Damascus summit. We all know how it works in this region. People come and leave so fast, hardly anything is remembered or celebrated.

We all remember how Bashar thought he could get away with killing Rafik Hariri. Here's another bad calculation in the making: waiting for Barack Obama's election. It never ceases to amaze me how dictators plan the lives of their citizens (and those of other countries) around the outcomes of democratic processes outside their borders. So what if the man who wants to chat with Assad actually does that if he is elected? US national security is more important than the welfare of the Assad regime, and last I checked, Obama will not be presiding over a certain tribunal being planned in the Hague.

If only we could fast forward to see how Bashar will fall on his head.

Comments

[Jeha]

On an "unrelated" note;

[...
On Friday, math enthusiasts celebrate pi, the infinite number representing the relationship between a circle's diameter and its circumference. Represented by the Greek letter pi, the number is usually shortened to 3.14, so festivities take place on March 14 or 3/14. Across the country, math aficionados trade pi recipes, hold pizza parties, and recite as many digits of the never-ending number as they can remember.
...]

I strongly believe the spirit of 3.14 is far stronger than the idiots confronting it; it is far wider than Lebanon, and the message far more universal, as sites like Publius keep reminding us. After all, all of us in Lebanon yearn for the same basic thing, we only lack the mechanisms to reach our goals. And we're dragged in a region still stuck in rear-gear...

But the world is changing, and the region may yet evolve. Inchallah.

Pi be with y'all.

REF:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88239845

[Andre]

Nice analogy there AK by using pi. Maybe the syrians and their cronies are having to come to grips that their gross miscalculations in recent years have turned the odds heavily against them and that the window of opportunity is about to close on them, hence they are pulling all the stops to save themselves. The arab summit is a joke and has no value to anyone attending except the host, and it is just a statement of prestige for them nothing more. Ironically the one country that they just reluctantly invited in an inappropriate manner, may just refuse to attend after all and could set a reaction of events that has the potential of causing many others to follow suit, which would turn out to be the ultimate slap in the face! Bashar and co. may finally get a taste of their own medicine after all.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

Well said, AK.!

NowLebanon with B. Lewis:"...In the same Jerusalem Post interview, Lewis explained more fully what he meant by the “Sadat syndrome”: “The late Egyptian president Anwar Sadat didn't make peace with Israel because he was suddenly convinced of the case for Zionism. He did it because in the late 1960s and early '70s, Egypt was becoming a Soviet colony. … In desperation, he turned to Israel, on the perfectly correct assumption that on the worst assessment of Israel's intentions, and on the best assessment of Israel's power, Israel was less dangerous than the Soviet Union".

What is the analogy to compare with Asad?
Whom must he fear so much to switch sides?
Iran? HZB? don't think so. The real threat to Alawi Asad and Co is the Sunni Syrian MB. That is why there's no switching sides in the feasible future.

[ BTW AK, your blog loads painfully slow lately. ]
.

[danny]

GREAT POST AS USUAL AK.

Who cares what Arab despots think in their antiquated war rooms...
The Syrian regime cannot change. IT will force the Syrian butchers to escalate and accelerate their assasinations...
More BAD times are ahead except if by some miracle this regime falls!
AL?? Who gives a hoot? Wonder why Persia is invited to an Arab League meet?

As for waiting for Obama or others...it will be a long wait! These waiting for this ...and that...is basically an idiotic premise used primarily by "analysts" to explain Syrian actions. They are not waiting for anything! Like the silly and spoiled playground bully who has always gotten away with its crimes, it justs blows smoke and keeps on its destructive behaviour until and when a stronger bully shows up or the little guy fights back!
Syria has ran out of usefulness. Soon the Jewish state will realize that protecting these murderers in Damascus is counterproductive and a dangerous miscalculation!
Syrian regime is entrenched in their survival mode. They do not care much about their "historic rights" in Lebanon or elsewhere (no shots in Golan for 35 years now!).

"The world has changed and old time calculations do not add up anymore, except PI still is 3.14..."
HOW TRUE AK...HOW TRUE!!!!!

Syrian despots have no idealogy or principles. They only understand the brute force because nothing else would save them from the IT's decisions. There will be no compromises! I just hope that at the end of the day IT does not become another smoke and mirror and stagnant prosecution with no clear "judgements" or convictions!

Happy Easter..

[Bad Vilbel]

Nice piece, AK.

I honestly do not understand PM Saniora. I've been ragging on him for being completely incapable of taking a stance on anything for sometime now. This is no exception. As you put it so eloquently, Jumblatt is on the money, when he says Lebanon should not attend the summit, nor should it do Assad the favor of showing up after the pathetic invite. On principle alone.

I mean, if Sanioa can tell Condi Rice she is not welcome in Lebanon after Israeli bombs killed a few dozen children in Qana, why can't he make a similar statement regarding the Arab Summit and the Syrian regime? Is it so damn hard to have some kind of principles?

My biggest knock of the M14 movement has been exactly that. While Hizballah seems to have no problem declaring their "principles" high and loud (regardless of their validity, or their sincerity for that matter), M14 (except for Jumblatt and Geagea) seems incapable of articulating a clear principled vision. I would have expected, after the grand (what a joke!) M14 conference of last week, a declaration of principles of some sort (much like that formulated by the founding fathers of the USA, back in the day, for example) and from that point on, having EVERY M14 official (including PM Saniora) abiding and acting based on such principles (which in this case, would include boycotting any summit, nation or party who refuses to recognize the sovereignty of Lebanon and recognize its legitimate government).

The fact that 2 days after such a conference, Saniora and co. are still even DEBATING attending the summit makes a mockery out of what March 14 stands for (or SHOULD stand for).

[Nicolas]

If the syrians and iranians are waiting for Obama to be elected president of the US. They will be waiting for very long long time...........
After the incendiary speeches of his pastor, his chance of winning at a general election are becoming very slim.....
Unfortunately for the syrian and iranian; McCain is 10 time more hawkish than Busch..........and good for us..........

[Meghwar]

AK, Beautifully written as always, Great article man!

BV,
Amen !! I just cannot understand that jelly fish Siniorita anymore...and why the heck M14 are wasting their time on hot empty slogans and 4 seasons'tunes rather than taking action and ASAP ??? Like 50 + 1 election but definitely not of G. Suleiman, and let the hizb and their stooges open gates of hell ( if they have the balls and ORDERS to do so )

By the way and on an unrelated note to the subject at hand, here 's some notes about the Fallon resignation :
British and US sources attest that the US Department of Defense has set up a plan to attack Iran, dubbed "Checkmate".
An Air Force Strategic Studies Group was entrusted with planning the war, under the leadership of Brigadier-General Lawrence A. Stutzriem and his chief civilian adviser, Dr. Lani Kass, a former Israeli military intelligence officer and expert in electronic warfare (CNN, Sunday Times). The presence of the latter in the Group might give credit to such information, since Israel is most eager to attack Iran, and considers the downfall of the Iranian regime to be a crucial issue.
The fact of the matter is that Project "Checkmate" is not new: it was used by the United States in the 1970s against the Soviet Union, and again during the second Gulf War when it drove the Iraqi army out of Kuwait. If this information is mentioned in the media to such an extent, then surely Admiral Fallon must have learned of it from other military sources and decided to submit his resignation - since it is the military leadership which will be held responsible for any failure in war.
Such a conclusion is further corroborated by information pointing to intense disagreement between Admiral Fallon and the Commander of the US Forces in Iraq General David H. Petraeus. The Admiral is the first naval officer to hold the position of Commander of the Central Command, to which General Petraeus belongs. However, the conflict between the two men runs deeper than mere professional competition. The Admiral was against the increase of US troops in Iraq and was planning for their withdrawal in July 2008, whereas Petraeus was the man behind the idea of reinforcement, with the direct support of the High Commander, "General" George Bush. Moreover, Petraeus considers that victory in Iraq will not be possible without a blow to Iran that would reduce its influence. Fallon, on the other hand, views this as a great risk, considering that the backbone of the current government in Bagdad is constituted of Shiite parties loyal to Tehran. There is no telling how they, or the rest of the Islamic world, would react if Petraeus's views were to be implemented.

http://english.daralhayat.com/opinion/OPED/03-2008/Article-20080315-b33f94dd-c0a8-10ed-017c-4324fd8b49d3/story.html

[Andre]

Meghwar,

The consequences of a strike on Iran if not backed by a sustained effort to overthrow the regime there is doomed to fail. It will only embolden the extremists and will fan the flames of violence across the region. Iran is aware that such a strike may be coming and will seek to destabilize the region at the expense of Iraq, Gaza and Lebanon. Iran has become a power in the region and any miscalculations will have severe repercussions...that is why Fallon is not wanting to be part of another GW Bush military adventure. Mc Cain needs to be very careful with his statements, since in the US there is an ever growing uneasiness about the war and public opinion including diehard republicans will turn against him even if it means electing Obama.

[danny]

Andre,

you are absolutely right. There cannot be a "limited engagemnt" with these fanatics. This is not the opportunist butchers of Syria; these are fanatics on opium...That's why I think a limited but controlled nuclear option will be used mainly to deter the Iran's idiots from further foolishness!
Conventional bombings will create a scortched warth of the oil reserves of the Gulf!!!

As for Seniora...

[Abilama]

Let’s try to get into the head of Syrian President Bashar Assad: In two weeks, he will put on his finest suit and travel to Damascus’ international airport in order to welcome the participants of the Arab League summit.

One cannot but be impressed with the preparations: Just like the president’s suit, Damascus is preparing around the clock while nervously looking at the mirror, like a girl before a fateful date. Fresh posters of the presidential couple are being hung at every corner. Syria spent tens of millions of dollars it doesn’t have in order to renovate hotels, set up a media center, inaugurate restaurants, recruit battalions of spokespersons and PR people, flatter the media, and pamper journalists.

New signs, in Arabic only, announce that Damascus is the mother of all Muslim culture. Those who attempted to argue with this puzzling claim were sent to prison. Democracy? Not around here. Assad won’t let anyone ruin his party.

Yet the way it looks at this time, until the last moment nobody will know who will come out of the landing planes: Rulers and heads of state, or lowly officials who were “punished” with the duty of showing their presence.

Foreign Minister Muallem, who handed out personal invitations at the 22 palaces of Arab world rulers, has counted a meager number of positive responses: Only Algerian President Bouteflika (I have nothing to lose,) Jordan’s King Abdullah (I have no choice,) Qatar’s Sheikh Hamed (al-Jazeera will have a wild time) and Mahmoud Abbas (annoying the Syrians is dangerous.)

For those who will be coming nonetheless, Assad is preparing a bagful of surprises: The summit’s observation gallery includes seats reserved for the Hizbullah delegation, for Hamas’ Khaled Mashaal and for Islamic Jihad representatives, and of course, we must have Iranian ally Ahmadinejad.
For two days they will sit at the luxurious banquet hall, engage in talks at the corridors, and smile to the cameras. What will they really be talking about? This is not a simple problem for those who are currently occupied with, as is customary with Arab summits, drafting the concluding statements.

Will Saudi peace plan be recycled?
On the one hand, it is worthwhile for Assad to see the Damascus summit recycle (for the third time) the Saudi peace plan, which offers Israel “full Arab peace” in exchange for “Israeli withdrawal from all occupied territories.” What’s wrong with that? Syria will be portrayed as a tireless peace lover, and Israel may finally be convinced to address the Syrian channel seriously. In any case, the Saudi initiative was aimed at bestowing great rewards upon Syria: Removal from the axis of evil, the return of the Golan Heights, and the reinforcement of Syria’s hold (“Only we can control Nasrallah”) on Lebanon’s neck.
On the other hand, the Damascus summit will be convened at a time of tense restraint. The USS Cole, which unexpectedly appeared near the shores of Lebanon, bothers the Syrians. Assad and his intelligence chiefs already know who really killed Imad Mugniyah, but they decided to postpone the publication of the list of accused (a partial list only) to the post-summit period. It would be interesting to see who the Syrians will decide to charge with infiltrating the sealed intelligence-controlled area and killing the Hizbullah military commander.

If it wasn’t for events in Gaza, the Damascus summit would have been thrown to the garbage bin of conflicts among Arab leaders. Assad is not only despised in Jerusalem and in Washington – Mubarak and the Saudi Arabia’s Abdullah, who Assad referred to as “half men” (as punishment for their deafening silence during the Lebanon war) are allergic to him. Yet Assad had a miracle: Because of Hamas and Gaza and the mediation efforts there, there is finally an issue that can be dealt with in Damascus.

And so, in the best tradition of Arab summits, Israel will again play a starring role. Propaganda outlets will produce impassioned declarations and threats, and demand that Abbas join forces with Mashaal. Syria will make a great effort to inflame passions just to make sure that there is no lull in the Gaza violence. Otherwise, what will they be talking about during the summit?

There is no better way to break the dullness of the Arab summit but to have Marwane Hamadeh, Tarek Mitri, or Geagea show up and spoil the party for Prince Charming. I am pretty sure Michel Aoun would also give us a memorable performance, by first reminding the hosts what they would be in for if he is ever elected, the looks on the their faces would be quite entertaining, and second by providing comic relief to the audience. On a serious note, and in spite of the way the invitation was sent, the Sanioura government should take this opportunity to have its voice heard in the middle of Damascus. After all, why should they have the privilege to only listen to Fairouz? The din of our Lebanese squabbling would do our brethren some good. They may even like it enough to start their own.

[Meghwar]

Andre,

As I see it, IF there gonna be a Strike against Iran...Believe me it is not going to be like the foolishness committed in Iraq, Iran will be flattened, with no territorial invasion involved, the regime will fall .... the iranian populace are already fed up with their regime, and ahmediNUTjad is hated and criticized even by conservatives and Khamenei himself, not to mention that the economic situation inside the country is amiss, despite the oil boom they are facing problems, all thanks to annual billion dollars sent to their pasdaran in Lebanon (Hizb-especially after July war) and other Arab countries; besides if this strike happens the turbaned regime will be so weak that it will fall like a ripe apple into the hands of the angry populace, not to mention that the USA and/or Israel 2nd main aim (beside stopping the Nuclear process ) is to CHANGE the regime and forbid any "inheriting" one from any future "NUCLEAR" WISHEFUL thinking Let alone leaving them the reactors intact!
What I am thinking of is Carpet bombing (among other things) of any site that might ( or might not) bear any relation to nuclear reactors...but they won't leave it to chance...

Hence I repeat (Again) if there gonna be war ...it will be Ugly VERY UGLY meaning...like poet Abou Nawass used to say “HEAL me with the same -root cause- of sickness” ( Dawini bellati kanat heya adda'ou) Hence it is gonna be like giving the Iranian MULLAHS their WISHED FOR Nuclear BOMB but from the Heavens !!

PS. it is not Necessary the US who would drop the bomb......

[JoseyWales]

I'm bored stiff criticizing Saniora and hearing people tell me "he has a plan" and reading the M14 press hail him as a "statesman".

He is, AT BEST, an honest accountant way way way out of his league and he is doing all the WRONG things at the WRONG time, while the country is dying.

Yes, Joumblatt is right but the BIG STORY here is why is Joumblatt the only voice on this??? (Geagea is probably with Joumblatt on this)

Where the hell are Gemayel, Hariri, all the M14 people, the Batrack who's been wrong but vocal on everything, the Armenians etc...

Time and again, the silence of these people undermines Joumblatt and Geagea as they appear isolated and are then easily criticized by M8-Hezbo as lone nuts with a bad past.

Joumblatt-Geagea: bad past yes, right today, yes also.

Time to stick together and buy Saniora some backbone or else time to dump on him from the M14 side.

[objective observer]

Junblatt for President.

[objective observer]

Junblatt for President.

[Bad Vilbel]

As usual, Josey is 100% correct. Nothing has done M14 disservice as much as their refusal to be vocal about the issues. It's made them look weak and divided. The LEAST you could expect, after their big conference, was to have EVERYONE on the same page as Jumblatt and Geagea, as you said. Backing them up vocally, giving their statements the full weight of policy, rather than, as you said, making them look like isolated loons.

Seriously, the M14 movement has been the stupidest, most incompetent crop of imbeciles I have ever seen (and that's saying something).

[Andre]

There is a reason why the M14 leaders are not backing the tough talk by DSG and Walid bey, They may not be able to take a tough stance on this issue. Notice how Hariri is mum and hasn't said anything? The fact is that the invitation to Lebanon was demanded by KSA and Egypt otherwise they would boycot the event. Syria then agreed reluctantly to send a (lame) invitation in order not to jeopardize the summit. Hariri may be caught in a difficult situation, on the one hand trying not to upset his Saudi mentors who want to see Lebanon represented and who have worked hard to do so, and on the other his allegiances to the anti syrian coalition within M14. The daily star had a great article on the contradictions and lack of common ideological positions within the amorphous M14 movement that contributes to undermining its position.

[Bad Vilbel]

Andre,

This is not about just the summit. M14 (minus DSG and Jumblatt) have been incapable of articulating any strong worded principles since that fateful day in 2005 when the Syrian withdrew. Sure, we got a bunch of platitudes about independence, sovereignty, and so on. But you have to do a bit more than that to build a nation. You have to take some strong stances and adopt some strong measures to instill some sort of confidence in your population, when it comes to the law, state institutions, the principles upon which the state was built, the constitution (the list goes on). The ONE thing and ONE thing only that Saniora and company have been quick to be very vocal about is, much to my surprise, coming to the defense of the "Resistance" (that same Resistance that insults them, calls them half-men and slaves, and so on). To me, this shows a complete lack of spine and a complete lack of being principled. It makes the M14 leadership seem weak and spineless.

If we really are to get behind the principles of one-state, one-army, no foreign interference, no weapons outside those of the state, etc. I'd like to hear more than just the 2 "loonies" (Jumblatt and Geagea) saying in no uncertain terms: "No weapons outside the state. And it doesn't matter if it's against Israel or not. It is the Army's duty to fight Israel if need be, not Hizballah."
I'd like to hear them saying in no uncertain terms: "You can do as you please and say whatever you want as it is your right as a private citizen, but you cannot dictate government seat distribution, consensus presidents, and all that other claptrap. You have a vote in parliament, use it. If you have enough votes for a no-confidence, please, by all means, bring down the government. If you don't, shut the fuck up!"

I hear M14 talk about forming committees to "revitalize the state institutions"....Well, my suggestion just now would go a long way in revitalizing the institutions: START USING THE DAMNED INSTITUTIONS, you idiots! That will show everyone HOW they're supposed to be used. How about YOU start following the damn rules and laws and constitutions that you talk about "revitalizing"?

How about you arrest guys who fire RPGs in the air for no reason? BEFORE you launch on tirades about how the Army is going to defend Syria in case of Israeli invasion?

[danny]

قام وفد من كبار ضباط قيادة الجيش برئاسة نائب رئيس الاركان للتخطيط العميد الركن بانوس مانوجيان، بزيارة عائلات الشهداء المدنيين الذين سقطوا في احداث مار مخايل خلال شهر كانون الثاني الفائت، حيث وقف الوفد على اوضاعهم، ونقل اليهم تعازي ومواساة قائد الجيش العماد ميشال سليمان وتضامنه معهم، واعتباره ان من قضوا هم شهداء الوحدة الوطنية والسلم الاهلي، تماما كعسكريي الجيش الذين استشهدوا دفاعا عن وحدة لبنان وامنه واستقراره.

OK BV,

Here are there. The Army sent a delegation to visit the "martyrs'" families; those who "fell" during their rioting and tire burning escapades!!!!...

Now that's something right??

As for the "government" or March 14, BV cannot be MORE RIGHT (if there's such phrase). We did not see any "documents' or declaration on March 14th except for old and tired rhetoric and recycled garbage. They are nothing but pussies!!

[Meghwar]

BV,
Dude you're 100% Right, couldn't have said it better.

Concerning this crap of a summit, I just read a VERY interesting article in Nahar by Jihad Azzein, as to WHY Lebanon should be present there...( I would love to see Geagea/Jumblat there to mess up things or Assad getting a stroke, if not anything else ...)

Just a small passage of the analysis

" "يا عزيزي...
هذا مقعد الدولة اللبنانية"

الحقبة التي اطعم فيها جيمس بايكر ممثل لبنان بالملعقة فكرة ان غيابه عن المؤتمر الدولي للسلام في مدريد يعني غياب "الدولة اللبنانية" عن خارطة مستقبل المنطقة... هذه الحقبة كانت حقبة نهايات حرب اهلية لبنانية – لبنانية...
اما الحقبة الحالية التي على لبنان ان يفهم فيها ان غياب حضوره لقمة دمشق تحت اي ذريعة (حتى لو لم ينتخب رئيس للجمهورية نرجو انتخابه سريعا) فهي حقبة احتمالات بداية حرب اهلية: تعريف الحرب الاهلية البسيط في النموذج اللبناني هو انشطار الدولة ومعها المجتمع اي العجز الذاتي عن الحكم. (هناك نماذج مختلفة للحروب الاهلية في العالم لا تفرض بالضرورة انشطار الدولة. لكن في لبنان، حيث النظام الطائفي يجعل "المجتمع" بتعبيراته الطائفية ممسكا حتى العظم بخناق الدولة لا مجال الا لهذا النوع من الحرب الاهلية!).
من سيُفهم الرئيس فؤاد السنيورة (شارك او لم يشارك، المهم وجود وفد لبناني... لماذا لا يكون برئاسة امين الجميل اذا تعذر انتخاب رئيس للجمهورية)، او من سيُفهم الشيخ سعد الحريري انه لا يجوز ان يغيب مقعد لبنان عن اي قمة عربية وخصوصا في دمشق؟
تلك الفترة عام 1991... توفر وجود جيمس بايكر كشخص قوي في طاقم جورج بوش الاب... اليوم مَن؟
لا نجد الا الملك عبدالله بن عبد العزيز، بمهابته ونفوذه.

http://www.annahar.com/content.php?priority=15&table=makalat&type=makalat&day=Tue

IMHO, It's a different point of view worthy of reading...

As far as I am concerned, Representing Lebanon in this crapy summit or not is not the issue, the Damascus summit is going to fail miserably whether Lebanese attend or not, Assad will reap nothing from it but more animosity and loathe from the Arabs, especially after inviting the Iranians....no amount of summits could spare him the IT, that He himself knows and all the ARABS do too, especially Egypt and KSA they RELY on, and no amount of Israeli cover could spare his ass this time around.
This summit is just another "pacifier" in the mouth of all protagonists to waste time, until they reach an agreement on either electing a president or starting the war...( from Lebanon which like an oil stain will engulf the whole bloody area ) to the benefit of Israel and IRAN…yes Iran…Bcz as I see it Iran and Israel are only opponent in their race to control the region and be the powerful reginal player, both have many parallel interests that intersect especially as far as the Arabs are concerned. ( Just by turning the Palestinian cause from an Arab one to “Islamic” one, Iran secured a heavy weight in the equation while depleting Arabs’ from their historical ARAB LAND weight in it, ( especially KSA – EGYPT )So Iran REPLACED the ARAB IDENTITY of the CAUSE BY AN ISLAMIC ONE the consequences on teh ground ??? look at hamas in palestine and Hizb in Lebanon not to mention other groups in other country like sleeping cells waiting to wake up ( kuweit was a restrained example after mughniyeh rally ) this in turn gave Israel the Latitude to convince the world it is of sectarian issue not of Arab LAND or occupied ARAB land to be returned …as if Arabs now have no claims on this cause, AS ARABS, thanks to Hizb hamas and Syrian assholes…so the Iranian imperialsim is using teh weaknesses of Arabs and their cause in return of similar attitudes from israel, in teh ends both wants to have the Lion share in this rotting Arab cake ( but this is a totally different issue … )

Also, I really think is that the opposition deep inside do not want M14th to take part in this summit because on 1 hand they can continue in their refrain of accusations against the majority of executing an American agenda, and on the other hand they will send their own “committee” to present their own “Demands” to the Arabs…
I guess Saniorita is waiting to see the level of representation of KSA and Egypt, but one good point for him is that that he insisted on a CABINET MEETING to decide which will indispose the crap out of Hizb &Co. why Because they cannot accuse Saniora of TAKING DECISIONS out of the CONSTITUTION BOUNDARIES…I must admit, Saniorita could come up with some streak of intelligence now and then.

[Andre]

BV,

I am in total agreement with what you're saying. There are a lot of contradictions and lack of objectivity on the part of M14's position because of the lack of a common platform that they can all build upon when it comes to important national issues such as electoral and constitutional reforms. The onlly thing they can all agree on is their oposition to syrian hegemony, and that alone is simply not enough to rebuild the country. Case in point is that their meeting at BIEL as mentioned was full of accusations and pointing of fingers rather than an opportunity to reach out and be seen as a national organization that encompasses sectarianism. They need to work on their national program and reconcile their internal differences within first that have been overshadowed by their anti syrian stance.

[Meghwar]

Something that Danny's post reminded me of...

Have you guys noticed that it's been a while since the hizbiz sheeple are not rioting anymore or having any problems with electricity, bread, fuel prices, etc etc etc ???? Though not a single issue of these was solved ???

These people's rationale is pathetic!

Everyone knows that these riots were intended to INTIMIDATE THE ARMY and Suleiman. Let’s see Hizbiz felt the danger of a strong army after

1-Sending the Army to the south after their divine crap but mostly the RELIEF and WARM welcome that the southern populace have shown to the ARMY was not relieving at all to Hizb.

2-Naher el Bared / Hassoun speech and RED LINES which the army used as toilet paper,

3-and being nominated by the majority as a concession president.

So what is easier and cheaper than to "Martyr" 6 sheeple to harass the Army and bully Suleiman ????

And now this new leaping Lemming into the “Chair Race” SENDS A DELEGATION to visit the RIOTS' "MARTYRS" Families !!!! GOD DAMMIT !!!!!!

GIVE ME A FREAKING BREAK!

'Guess the bullying is working.....

[VOR]

Funny how everybody here rants and raves about M14 and their lack of spine. How about you put yourselves in the shoes of these poor MP's that had to endure assasination attempts, having to live in "secure" houses or hotel rooms to stay alive and in some cases flee the country altogether for fear of being targeted. Do you know the psychological impact of all of this? It's a tough situation that they are in and one needs to understand their real predicament.

[Bad Vilbel]

VOR,

If you're not cut out for it, stay out of politics. No one is forcing Gemayel, Saniora or any of those guys to take up the mantle. If they're too scared or psychologically scarred, just do what many of us do, leave the country, retire, or shut the fuck up.

The point is, when you take it upon yourself to enter politics, and to claim to want to work for Lebanon, etc. Then I expect you to actually do it.

[JoseyWales]

VOR,

If you are an M14 guy, the Syrian threat is not going away by your doing nothing or or by keeping Syria's goons in sensitive security positions.

[VOR]

BV,

Easy for you to say. My point is that you can't underestimate the fear that these guys live in...they are pretty much like you and me, have families that they must support and think of. Being in politics does not necesarily imply getting killed. This is a pure form of intimidation that the murderers are using whether they are syrians or not and it is working. If you want to be a champion and criticize them for not acting, then maybe YOU should lead by example and put your life at risk like they do, instead of venting by using your keyboard, otherwise do what you preach and shut the F@#k up!

[Min Canada]

Everything has been postponed till after the summit. There is too much pressure on the hawks to not go ahead with the war. Many options are being explored but they remain speculative now and in the realm of roomers and unprovable. Meanwhile some things are becoming clearer. The military planners on this one are very different from the ones who worked on the Iraq invasion of this century. Some of the scenarios will put the war closer to late summer with a broader coalition, while the other scenarios are more immediate and likely more messy.

The longer term scenarios are problematic for the US of course, while the short term ones need a bit more planning. There are also several scenarios that are developing far from the field and could be significant either to crown the military moves, or to outright replace them. I know, I know: "Min Canada, you are not saying anything". I will when I can and I get the clear messages. My sources are getting deliberately vague now, which is understood as we get closer to conflict.

[Min Canada]

From Free-syria:
واشنطن تشدد إجراءات الأمن على السفن القادمة والمغادرة لسوريا

As I said a slow tightening is going on.

[Mallon]

BV,

You keep saying you gave up on Lebanon and in more than one post you condemn the country and ALL its inhabitants to hell. Great! Tell me what the heck are you doing wasting your time hanging around these blogs? What you're still hoping for if you're so disgusted by anything Lebanese?

You are sure full of it man.

[Aussie Leb downunder]

BV's sentiments speak for a lot of us .... and heck hanging around blogs letting off steam is a lot better than kicking the cat

[Bad Vilbel]

You don't know what I do or don't do when I'm not venting on this or other blogs. If you want to pass judgement based on not knowing who I am and what I do, by all means, go ahead. I don't feel the need to justify myself to you. Unlike politicians and alleged "leaders", I have not offered myself to public service, and therefore, do not feel that I have to be accountable for anything else but what I do in my private life (and believe me, in that area, I am as accountable as they get).

It is a citizen's RIGHT (at least in the modern, civlized world) to criticize government. It is also a citizen's RIGHT (and DUTY) to participate in civilized debate, and to hold said leaders accountable through PEACEFUL means (exercising one's vote, posting one's opinion on blogs, or any other means in between).

These concepts of a citizen's rights and duties are completely lost on a large segment of the Lebanese. This is one of the reasons I choose to vent about my compatriots on these blogs, and one of the many reasons I am completely disgusted with them. From the outside, looking in (I live outside Lebanon), my compatriots look and act like a bunch of uncivilized imbeciles, straight from the middle ages, with absolutely no inkling on the 20th (let alone 21st) century. They appear petty and "small" and barely deserving (if at all) of a place among the world's nations. When I read some of the news stories, or some of the comments by some Lebanese, they appear to me the way a group of bickering 5-year olds would look to a group of Wall Street bankers or Advanced Physics researchers at MIT, or whatever: Petty, small. etc.

So forgive me for sounding harsh. But honestly, I do not care what the readers of my comments think. They do not have to agree with my opinions or my stances. And they have every right to tell me to shut the fuck up.

The irony here being that I, at least, accept that right of free speech. Which is a lot more than I can say for a large swath of my compatriots. (If you don't believe me, go scream "Shut the fuck up, Nassrallah!" in the middle of Dahieh, and see how well you end up.

[Vodka]

BV.........well said !

[Bad Vilbel]

Case in point today, Geagea FINALLY comes out and says M14 will elect Lahoud or Harb if it has to.
Now watch Saniora and the other M14 guys backtracking and extending new olive branches to the opposition.

It's about fuckin time (3 months late) for M14 to get off their asses, and say out loud "We tried consensus. The opposition didn't want it. So now we're electing Harb/Lahoud with the 50+1. Check and mate."

[JoseyWales]

Guys,

We all get carried away and that is BECAUSE we care in our different ways (even though we somtimes say we don't).

Caring and having sympathy are however very different. I have reached the point of zero sympathy a while back.

Losing and continuing the struggle is OK. What is unacceptable, and got me and others to beyond the breaking point, is the utter incompetence, corruption, and callousness of "OUR" side.

Here's the latest from "OUR" guys: after letting RPG-happy Berri-asshole loose and in the midst of a political crisis and fears of war the gvmnt-friendly fucking Solidere is busy DEMOLISHING ILLEGALLY 3 buildings that were classified as LANDMARKS.
[LINK: http://lebanoniznogood.blogspot.com and L'Orient]

How low and crass and vulgar can these people get?

[Ghassan Karam]

JW,
I am so glad that you have mentioned this . I was afraid that this whole episode might just slip by without any comments. One of the three buildings in question; if I am not mistaken; is the Jewish Synagoge; which is an architectural example that needs to be preserved especially in a society that keeps on pretending to be diverse. Solidere, to start with, has homogenized Beirut to an incredible extent. Whoever is responsible for this ought to apologize to the Lebanese masses because it is very evident that those who were in charge of rebuilding do not know much about urban planning and public places. Lebanon should never allow the demolishing of the only synagogue in the country but then as you well know the PM has no spine and cannot stand up to the poisonous attacks from Hizb that would label him as a Zionist sympathiser had he decided to spend money on rehabilitating a Synagogue that the fightiers of the civil war have destroyed. Rehabilitating a Synagogue would have been just as important as rebuilding any church or mosque. Have we fallen so low that we cannot even stand to say that Beirtut has a Synagogue?

BTW, another related issue that seems to have gone by unchallenged. The so called seven star hotel to be built opposite the St George Hotel. Besides its being an architectural monstrosity, that land , under the sea water, belongs to all the Lebanese and as a result the Government has no right to sell it and obviously no private individual has the right to profit from its sale. Who is it that gave the Dubai development company the right to use that real estate. That is a travesty if the news stories are accurate. I believe that the law that applies to such areas as seashore, rivers lakes etc is the principal that can be traced to the Roman Emperor Justinian and that has dictated that such properties are owned by the people.
(I had to break my self exile for this)

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

Glad to hear from you. Excellent points as always.
However, I wanted to take a moment to relay to you my sentiment about the articles you've been posting elsewhere, which I read avidly every week or so. Some of the finest writing and discourse I have seen in this sad arena of Lebanese politics. It is truly a shame that you no longer participate much over here, but please keep up the good work!

As for the Solidere/Real Estate shenanigans. Law? What law? There is no law in Lebanon.

As for the Synagogue...It's a damn shame. You said it more eloquently than I could. But for a country that pretends to be so diverse, it's a damn shame they're planning to demolish that historical building. I recently read this story, about the few remaining Jewish people in Lebanon, and it mentioned that Synagogue - which I have unfortunately not been able to see in person, as it was off limits back when I lived in Beirut.

The hypocrisy, the lies, the incompetence have no bounds in Lebanon.

You say the government and Solidere should apologize to the masses? Sadly, I don't think the masses in Lebanon know or care about half of this stuff (and certainly not about an abandoned synagogue). While the rest of the world moves forward, embracing technology and the 21st century, while still valuing culture and historical treasures, we, in Lebanon are busy nitpicking about petty disputes and beating our chests and chanting about this or that feudal lord or religious leader.

As Josey said...I have no pity anymore, for our people. They are a lost cause.

[mallon]

BV,

"that Synagogue - which I have unfortunately not been able to see in person, as it was off limits back when I lived in Beirut."

So tell us BV, why didn't you do anything about this while you were in Lebanon? You just accepted the _fact_ that it "was off limits".

Hum! I guess it's easy to condone ALL the Lebanese to hell for not doing enough, or it's more convenient to preach high and mighty behind the comfort of one's keyboard.

[JoseyWales]

Good to hear from you Gus,

and like BV, I read your good stuff on YaLibnan and elsewhere.

Aside: the synagogue was not destroyed (yet), 3 old buildings around it came down. And there are 2 or 3 others (Aley, Saida?, DeirelKamar) though the synagogue in Beirut is the more important and beautiful one.

[Meghwar]

AK,

I am not spaming you :D LOL
I was just giving the guys all the info about the hotel in question...!!!! LOL

Sorry guys I posted a substantial article about the "Apeiron hotel" to be built in DUBAI NOT IN BEIRUT with Links to support the info but it seems the Blog took it for Spam...fair enough ...I guess once AK reads it He will pass it on ...:D

[Meghwar]

About the 3 old buildings and the Synagogue,(I read l'Orient le jour article on the issue )
I have tons of pictures of that area including the Jewish cemetery near the synagogue, all going down in ruins ...it is a beautiful building and I agree with You Gus, JW, and BV, it is a shame that we are destroying our Identity and cultural heritage let alone that our National patrimony is not only ours ...Goethe Once said..."A National Heritage/Patrimony belongs to the whole world "

Besides have you heard of what is happening in Gemeyzeh ?? Same thing, old beautiful buildings, and Lebanese traditional houses ( IMHO it encompasses the most beautiful Architectural aspects of limestone, red tile roof and ingenious NATURAL eco-friendly cooling/heating system in the world ) these houses ( or what’s left of them ) are being destroyed to build sky scrapers and ugly cement forests instead ...just excruciatingly PAINFULLY DISGUSTING. Money talks and we Lebanese are unaware that it is almost too late to save what is left...occupied and busy as we are defending the Sons of bitches who responsible of such horrible destruction, whether in March 8 or 14 (FARTEEN)!

[Bad Vilbel]

Mallon,

I take it you did not live in Beirut between 1975 and 1990....
Get off your high horse. There are many parts of the country where some of us were not allowed.

[Meghwar]

BV,

Forget about such nonsense addressed to you man, it seems many of the people who are criticizing did not live in Lebanon at ANY TIME to start with !!!

Maybe they forgot (not that far in time) a specific “Bass Mat Watan” episode ( when nasrallah was JUST personified) it drove some uncivilized hordes to attack Ashrafieh area, as if it was blasphemy against a prophet or something, all of this for a comic show ...while supposedly there was "Rule of Law" in the country...some nerve to talk about "do something about it " ... yep we should have opened the "tiro" and come what may. Shouldn’t we ?

I Guess they never lived and experienced the militias unrivaled authorities, when the Lebanese citizen was worth less than a mosquito…
Forget it man …we know what we are talking about …besides you needn’t justify yourself to anyone!

Mr. Mallon
My father was "ABDUCTED" out of HIS OWN house by militiamen just because he is of a certain WRONG SECT in the WRONG AREA !!
So tell me Mr. "No preach but DO behind your keyboard", what could you have done about that ???
They are taking your father and their guns are on your Mother's head and your little sisters' what would do you RAMBO ???

YOU DO NOTHING, YOU SHUT THE FUCK UP AND PRAY TO GOD THAT HE WILL SPARE YOUR FAMILY AND PARENTS, YOU PRAY HARD LIKE YOU HAVE NEVER PRAYED IN YOUR LIFE, AND WITHOUT EVEN HAVING THE NERVE TO BREATHE, YOU KEEP YOUR TRAP SHUT UNTIL THESE GUNS MOVE AWAY FROM YOUR SISTERS' TRAUMATIZED INNOCENCE,
YOU KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT AND YOU DO NOTHING LIKE A SISSY BECAUSE YOUR MOTHER IS BESIDE THE DANGER OF BEING SHOT, SHE COULD BE RAPED BEFORE THE BULLIT OF MERCY, YOU FEEL A SISSY AND AT THAT MOMENT YOU ARE A SISSY BECAUSE A GUN HAS ITS ERECTION READY TO FUCK UP YOUR FATHER'S LIFE...THAT IS WHAT YOU CAN DO NOTHING ELSE! These are the RULES of MILITIAS, ANS THIS IS WHAT THE 1975-1990 WERE LIKE.

YOU have to take THE SHIT Those MEN are FEEDING YOU AND YOU HAVE TO SAY THANK YOU ...keep your hot headed Rambo act in check because your family is at stake, not only you KEEP IT SHUT, you have to forget your dignity, your humanity …you are nothing UNTIL THEY either FINISH YOU OFF or finish their “RAID”.

SO SPARE US YOUR CRITICISM, HIDING BEHIND THE KEYBOARD MR. MIGHTY ...UNTIL YOU LOOK A GUN BARREL IN ITS DARK COLD EYE and lower yours, While TASTING ITS COLD GRIPPING "O" Like JAWS BITING INTO YOUR FOREHEAD Flesh...knowing that you might die at any second…knowing that there’s NOTHING YOU CAN DO ABOUT IT to Help your family until then or yourself.

"Hum! I guess it's easy to condone ALL the Lebanese to hell for not DOING enough, or it's more convenient to ACT HEROIC and mighty behind the comfort of one's keyboard."

[danny]

Meghwar, BV....Some of these "brave souls" do not deserve an answer...

GK, nice to hear your take on the horrid "deculturazation" of Lebanon. Sell everthing to the Gulf brothers...Saudi and Persian...We'll come and visit the soulless (like Lebanese of today) concrete jungle!!!

[Bad Vilbel]

Meghwar,

Thanks. And you're right. Some of these comments are not deserving of an answer. I too suffered a very similar experience to the one you describe. As did countless other Lebanese, during that period of time. I sympathize. I suspect our friend Mallon, and others like him, are all too happy to criticize without knowing what they speak of, or having experienced any of it.

[Bad Vilbel]

On an unrelated note. And in the department of pure comedy, I bring you this quote from asshat Berri:

"Berri: Parliament Cannot Legislate".

[Charlie]

"Berri: Parliament Cannot Legislate".

LOL..More like a Parliament under Berri's leadership can't even find the key to the door...:-)

[Mallon]

Wow! Take hold of your emotions folks, you're getting a bit carried away with this. For those (Meghwar) that lack the capacity to carry on a civil discourse without resorting to name calling and derogatory remarks, I can say is "a man's character may be learned from the adjectives which he habitually uses in conversation". (Mark Twain)

BV, as much as I find your opinion insightful and objective I took an issue with your comments because on multiple occasions, I am certain out of frustration you were too harsh of your countrymen by condoning "all the Lebanese to hell". I understand this is a free speech forum and we're all entitled to own opinions. Though you should know this is a Lebanese blog frequented primarily by Lebanese who still have family and loved ones back in Lebanon.

So when I asked you the "off limits" question I already knew your answer, though my intention was to *remind* you of the answer. Hopefully by remembering it you'll be less harsh and judgmental of your fellow Lebanese. Make no mistake about it, even though Lebanon is liberated from the Syrians it's still not a free country!

[Bad Vilbel]

For the record. I am Lebanese, I was born in Lebanon. I lived the entire civil war in Lebanon. My parents live in Lebanon to this day. Just to be clear. I am not some random foreigner waltzing in here to this "Lebanese blog" and talking trash about my countrymen.

You are correct in that I speak out of frustration, lately, more often than not. And sadly, I realize that the current state of frustration has impinged on my ability to offer insightful and constructive commentary. But sadly, things are so depressing that my frustration gets the best of me and my commentary is often biting, ill-tempered and anything but "constructive".

While I wish nothing more than for Lebanon to magically turn into a peaceful, civilized and free country (emphasis on CIVILIZED), I also recognize that a large portion of the Lebanese people (obviously, not every single one, this is, after all, a generalization) seems immature and completely incapable of even aspiring for the abovementioned vision of Lebanon (let alone coming anywhere near working towards it).

So when I vent about my compatriots being imbeciles, when I condemn them all to hell, even though it is frustration speaking, there is also a nugget of truth in there. A hint of exasperation with the thickness of people's skulls. Sometimes, I really wish I could go "Fine. You guys don't want a civilized, modern country, apparently, so go, knock yourselves out. Fire rockets at Israel, let the IAF turn your neighbourhoods into parking lots. Go bomb each other to your heart's content until you're all dead and buried, and maybe some more deserving people might inherit this beautiful peace of land."
Sometimes, (lately, more often than not), i get so exasperated with the stupidity coming out of Lebanon, that instead of trying to reason with the idiots, i wish they would go ahead and carry their ill devised plans, and get what they really deserve: the destruction and death they love so much.
Let darwinism run its course.

We both know that for all the brilliant minds that have come out of Lebanon over the years, the truth is, as a people, we are a bunch of small-minded, ignorant savages who do not belong in the 21st century. And everything we're getting now, and everything we've gotten over the past 50+ years can be blamed on ourselves, not on the Zionist enemy, or the Great Satan, or whatever other third party our compatriots like to blame.

We have no one but ourselves to blame for the mess we've made. And a large number of us still fail to recognize that. And until we do. Until we stop living in denial. It is hard to feel sorry for Lebanon and the Lebanese.

[JoseyWales]

Let it go guys.

We (you) are pretty much on the same page, no need to split hairs over words or a bit of over the top venting.

I will say this though, that BV's extreme rhetoric is the symptom of something serious and very real.

You all know about the new "I hate Leb" blogger (http://fuck-lebanon.blogspot.com/) where it's all f-words with little in redeeming ideas. OK ,100% venting, guy does not pretend to care (though he does spend a lot of time on his blog).

POINT IS: that guy is getting more hits than AK's and all our blogs put together. Frustration with everyone and everything is very high and what we see on the blogs has got to have a counterpart on the ground in Lebanon.

[Also some old bloggers abandoned ship, LPJ Leb Bloggers. Some are dead (Leb Bloggers Forum, but that's a good thing). Some active posters are gone GK, Shunkleash. At BS, Mustapha is asking are you bored with Leb...]

How it will end up manifesting itself inside Leb is anyone's guess. When Berri said "people are sick of politicians including me" that was the understatement of the millenium.

Something is about to give soon, not sure if positive or negative, though my own preference would be for Berri and the others (M14/M8) to be hung by their privates in a public square, on a high holiday.

Maybe, just maybe, venting will come to an end in Lebanon. And when (and if) that day comes, BEWARE.

PS. Update, news HEADLINES in Nahar, today: Tension between M14 and Berri, Sfeir Pessimistic, Sky Blue.

[Meghwar]

Mr. Mallon

"For those (Meghwar) that lack the capacity to carry on a civil discourse without resorting to name calling and derogatory remarks, I can say is "a man's character may be learned from the adjectives which he habitually uses in conversation". (Mark Twain)"

A Man's intellect may be recognized from the lessons he is able to learn and his capacity to recognize his condemnatory behavior" (Meghwar)

you remind us of Enchiridion observation that "It is not who reviles or strikes you who insults you, but your opinion that these things are insulting"
then again " Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish"( The Bacchae )

Mr. Mallon you failed to recognize that actually I was talking about a personal experience and I DID exactly what I described to you that you may understand, That in such circumstances, TALKING IS CHEAP regardless if Mark Twain or the last average Joe!
Your judgmental attitude ( which by the way YOU ARE ACCUSING us of ) is no less than hypocritical and condescendant …I gather because we struck a nerve somewhere ??…In any case Mr. Mallon I do apologize sincerely not for the name calling but for sharing an experience which …it seems you are not able to comprehend...or may be are afraid to...

BV,
Couldn't have said it better man ...