When time is not on your side
The Assad regime is not ready for the Lebanese presidential election. Period. It needs more time to kill more politicians and security officials. Any serious presidential candidate is to be eliminated immediately, either through character assassination or by targeting his support network.
That's the official position in Damascus, the capital of Arab culture, which Fairuz celebrated last week. The search is now for another time-buying tactic to relieve Damascus of any Arab or international pressure.
It's not like it hasn't been working. We've watched the world's top suits play the Assad game only to find themselves back in square one after each round. How much time is the world planning on giving the Assad regime? Don't ask me. It's getting really, really hard to repeat myself.
The latest Syrian time-buying proposal was delivered by Qatar to Nicolas Sarkozy. According to al-Hayat, Damascus offered to pressure its allies to abandon the demand for a blocking vote if Suleiman's candidacy was taken off the table. Right.
Poor Suleiman. He had to tell his visitors that he never really announced his candidacy, which is true: others did it for him, and he thought he could pull the independent candidate act and not alienate his former Syrian master. Tonight, he will watch his former friend Hassan Nasrallah, and his Christian cover Michel Aoun on television making Suleiman's candidacy obsolete by burying the Arab League and their "Syrian-backed" initiative.
Some in March 14 are probably asking, what have we gained by not electing a president through a simple majority when we could have, and by agreeing to sell time to the Assad regime? We lost colleagues, two of the country's top watchmen, and we're about to lose our army to a militia and a crazy former general.
Nothing is sacred for this "opposition". Everything is fair game for the Assad regime. The more you wait, the more you will lose. Bullies aren't punished by letting them do what they want and by watching them destroy your house brick by brick while you read the book of Job.
But you know, we will show them on Valentine's day, when the people of the revolution will descend on Martyrs' square to commemorate the assassination of… who was it again?
Right. Time does that. Makes you forget. Yep.
I still don't understand why in the world M14 didn't go for the 50+1 option when every body from the Saudis, the French to the Americans were championing Suleiman for president. I say go for the 50+1 and let the chips fall where they may, would it get any worse than what were seeing, I think not!
Posted by: Jay | Tuesday, February 05, 2008 at 11:53 PM
"Some in March 14 are probably asking, what have we gained by not electing a president through a simple majority when we could have, and by agreeing to sell time to the Assad regime?"
Holy shit. You're just asking that NOW? Damn, AK, that can't be right. You are not usually that slow on the uptake. Okay, I am going to assume that you are not one of those "some in March 14" that you are speaking of. It must be those "others" who actually bought into the "made in Lebanon" General/President Suleiman solution.
"The more you wait, the more you will lose."
True enough. But once again, let us blame Syria. Nevermind that Syria could not do it without Hezbollah and Amal (the Shia), and Hezbollah and Amal could not do it without Micho. While I will never concede that Hezbollah is Lebanese, clearly Amal and Micho ARE Lebanese. Thus, Lebanese are taking Lebanon into the black abyss. Syria and Iran are only financing and pointing the way.
Posted by: fubar | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 at 12:56 AM
A.K,
Very, evry gloomy indeed. I think it is about time we stop hiding behind our little finger and say it out loud M14 has let us all down, and nothing GOOD is ever going to come out of ANY of them. Michel Suleiman has been cornered thanks to Amal and Hizballah, let us wait a bit longer to see if he can escape his pre-planned fate (I doubt it).
There is some truth in what Fubar is saying with regards to those being shown the way by Syria and Iran, to that I would like to add that they should be treated as at least accessories to all that is taking place, weither we consider them Lebanese or not.
Posted by: marillionlb | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 at 04:00 AM
I know this is beating a dead horse,
But missing every opportunity and too litlle too late has become endemic.
The HARD deadline of Lahoud's end of term (Nov 23) should have been used to elect someone, M8 knew it was the last chance, that's why they were roaming the halls of parliament even as they stayed out of session...
Creating FACTS on the ground is crucial. Hezbo knows it and does it all the time, M14 are still playing pocket billiards (excuse the vulgarity).
So instead M14 backed down, undercut by the idiot Sfeir who crapped on the constitution and is now lamenting the fact that the institutions are broken...
There is very little hope when there is no sane person in a position of leadership saying anything of substance.
Posted by: JoseyWales | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 at 07:41 AM
As usual I am in full agreement with Josey here. Facts on the ground is just like "possession is 9/10th of the law". You have to establish fait accompli if you want any hope to make any progress. And March14 (and the West) don't seem to grasp that notion, while Syria and the M8 opposition seem to have MASTERED a pattern of establishing facts (be them assassinations, riots, or other actions on the ground), while the M14 guys wallow in slogans and rhetoric.
I've pretty much given up. This isn't gonna change. I've accepted that Lebanon is doomed because the Lebanese people are imbeciles. I'm simply relegating myself to the role of the passerby who gawks at the car wreck on the freeway, with morbid fascination.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 at 12:29 PM
Guys ...
Why this gloom and desperation ??? We have been facing the syrians and their cronies Iranians ( hizb ) for 3 decades now, and let me remind you we did that when the whole world was against us, why give up now ?
It is like playing into their game, having time or not, is not the issue, it is having the will, and the resilience, to sabotage their coup d'etat, to undermine their schemes, and to halt their plans, with each plot they might conceive, or the "fait accomli" they try to force it upon us, let's turn it to their disadvantage, even if it is going to cost us more than what we have bargained for at starter...
Yes the March 14th leaders are imbiciles, and scared besides their history also works against them, but is the March 8th leaders history better ?
Hence it is not about Leaders, it is ABOUT THE PEOPLE, or sheeple for that matter...it is not leaders who kicked the syrians out, it is We who did that, because we believed in our Lebanon, Freedom and souvereignty !
We have to understand it is the ultimate fight either Lebanon PREVAIL or goodbye forever!
WE CANNOT Let them turn Lebanon into a dumpster and a ruined land ...IT IS OUR HOMELAND ...if we give it up ...we have no right to mourn it later...
We should "FEAR FEAR ITSELF" ! I Get worried when I read between the lines this FATIGUE and kinda DEPRESSED State of mind !!! From all of you!
Guys ...WE CANNOT GIVE LEBANON UP...no matter how many iranians and syrians it would take us to trample, stomp on and even kill...it is either THEM or US ! Do you wnat your children to live FREE ? Do you wnat them to be proud Lebanese...? Do you want to see the most beautiful flag and its Cedar replaced by the Hizb's??? If no, then DO YOUR JOB and do not FALTER...
Chose your side and stick to it, THERE'S NO TURNING BACK....
Lastly I just want to quote Frederich Nitzsche :
" He who has a WHY to live ...can bear almost any how".
LONG LIVE FREE LEBANON !
Posted by: Ex-Aounist | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 at 01:28 PM
I'll tell you why give up now. You actually touched on it without meaning to when you said "it's about the people".
You're damn right it's about the people. And when the people are getting "stupider by the day" (to quote josey wales) and do not seem to have any interest in rising above petty bickering and sectarian idiocy, I really don't see the point anymore.
THEY have to want a strong and functional state before anyone can do anything for them.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 at 01:54 PM
BV,
I can understand your bitterness, besides I did mean the stupid people, I wrote :"it is ABOUT THE PEOPLE, or sheeple for that matter..." :)
You know, the bickering and idiocy is not a Lebanese exclusivity ;) what we can do for those SHEEPLE is give the example... you know there are many shia who do not want Hizb or Amal as their representatives...and this applies also on sunni christians whatever...
It is about Consistancy, about continuity in actions, and that's where I blame those stupid M14 leaders for not staying the course, kicking out Lahouss, or electing the prsident with 50+1 etc...many screwed up occasions...
Still it is never too late...to steer out we need the people who still beleive in teh SPIRIT of teh Cedar revolution and its AIMS, neither the leaders nor what sheeple think...What matters is WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO ABOUT IT ?
You were discussing that we are like numbed and inactive, and that hizb & Co. are dealing us bl;ow after blow because they ACT...well time to do it ourselves and stop whining about the sheeple...he who wants to follow let him, those who don't or are afraid will learn the hard way ...
If we consider ourselves involved want to give up ...then we cannot blame others...for being sheeple..maybe it is their way of GIVING UP !
Posted by: Ex-Aounist | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 at 03:20 PM
Nasrallah-Aoun interview (Live blogged courtesy of Naharnet)
08:45 FPM Orange TV screens interview with MP Michel Aoun and Hizbullah Leader Hassan Nasrallah.
08:52 Nasrallah said Aoun is a “nationalist nationalist nationalist.”
08:53 Aoun said Nasrallah is a resistance leader born from the resistance.
08:55 Nasrallah said he met Aoun for the first time at the Mar Michael church when they signed the understanding sheet.
08:58 Nasrallah said Hizbullah first decided to nominate Aoun for president in June 2006.
09:00 He said Aoun was chosen as a presidential candidate because he is “independent and does not follow orders from embassies.”
09:01 Nasrallah said Hizbullah masses also supported Aoun’s nomination for president.
09:13 Nasrallah said Hizbullah rejected adding the Lebanese Forces to the quartet alliance for the 2005 elections.
09:15 Nasrallah said that the late Premier Rafik Hariri had told him he accepts the continued deployment of Syrian troops in the Bekaa Valley for ten years.
09:20 Aoun said “I’m the grandfather, father, and children of the opposition.”
09:25 Nasrallah said the southern suburb is not a security enclave controlled by Hizbullah.
09:40 Nasrallah said that he had sent a personal envoy to Aoun while living in his Paris exile to inform him of “our interest in alliance with him.”
09:47 Nasrallah said the understanding with the FPM "is not a passing issue. It wasn’t prepared to be an understanding between two sides but as a joint vision for the nation."
09:54 Nasrallah said the Syrians proposed to him the formation of a joint committee with Lebanon to tackle the issue of Lebanese citizens missing in Syria and Syrian citizens missing in Lebanon but the Saniora government did not follow up the issue.
09:59 Aoun said it is the responsibility of the political authority to follow up the issue of Lebanese citizens "held" in Syria.
10:09 Aoun said Premier Saniora refused to schedule trial for Lebanese who had fled to Israel insisting they should turn themselves in for interrogation prior to trial.
10:14 Nasrallah said consensus democracy is in the interest of the Lebanese topped by the Christians.
10:18 Aoun said he is satisfied with the relations with Hizbullah two years after signing the understanding.
10:32 Aoun called for expanding the understanding with Hizbullah "to include a third party that is the state of Lebanon."
10:33 Aoun said a defense strategy for Lebanon should be adopted after the liberation of Shebaa farms and the return of prisoners held in Israel.
10:40 Aoun called for a "defense pact" to control the defense strategy but did not name the parties to such a pact.
11:10 Nasrallah said he had relayed to Syrian President Bashar Assad a proposal from the Hariri family for a joint Saudi Lebanese investigation into the Hariri killing, Assad approved it but the Saudi's rejected it.
11:46 Nasrallah said that Israel is not capable of launching a war against Hizbullah at present.
12:00 Aoun said we support Gen. Suleiman in line with consensus, we are open to dialogue.
12:05 Aoun said he wouldn’t give up his demand for veto power in the government.
Posted by: fubar | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 at 05:18 PM
Nasrallah - Aoun...talk about Dumb and dumber !
Posted by: Ex-Aounist | Wednesday, February 06, 2008 at 05:42 PM
Aoun and Nasrallah on OTV, it was like watching the first gay wedding in Lebanon. Funny how Nasrallah spoke twice as much as Aoun, corrected him many times, and was about to speak on his behalf. Fubar did a very comprehensive resume of that endless stream of dribble the yellow and orange graced us with last night.
The one thing (and for personal reasons) that struck me the most is that Hassan and Aoun both siad that there are no Lebanese prisoners in Syrian jails, there are only missing people from Lebanon. Aoun then went on to say that Syria should not be blame for those missing, we should blame those who took them and delivered them to Syrian intelligence officers.
I have nothing more to say except "Rejoice you orange followers for your leader has yesterday shown his true patriotism."
Posted by: marillionlb | Thursday, February 07, 2008 at 02:55 AM
(Naharnet) Qatar announced Thursday it has withdrawn its unit of more than 200 United Nations peacekeepers from south Lebanon, and said it did not intend to send more. The contingent from Qatar, the only Arab country in the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), returned to Doha on Thursday and "will not be replaced for the moment," the official QNA news agency quoted General Hamad bin Ali al-Attiyah as saying.
*****
Not to worry, this was a planned departure. So planned, in fact, that it was not disclosed until after it was a fait accompli. The Qatari’s are just getting out of the way... But don’t worry...
(NowLebanon and Naharnet excerpts)
“The joint interview with Nasrallah and Aoun revealed that Nasrallah holds the last say in politics, while Aoun is approving this policy and is part of it,” Ex-President Amin Gemayel said.
“On February 14, we will renew our commitment to the Independence Intifada and voice out loud our rejection of the Syrian regime’s return to Lebanon,” MP Saad Hariri said.
“We will go to Martyrs Square to say that the Lebanese people are stronger than terrorism, which will not stifle their will,” he added.
“We will go to confirm that the Special Tribunal is still on and is heading toward its goal; murderers will be brought to justice,” Hariri said.
“The presidential elections should go through Beirut and the Lebanese parliament, not Damascus, Teheran or any other capital in the world,” Hariri declared.
Hariri accused some in Lebanon of seeking to keep the country’s politics and security hostage in the hands of Damascus and Teheran’s rulers.
“Our solidarity will prevent Lebanon from falling into Syrian and Iranian traps,” he said
He also declared that the opposition’s steps are aimed at avenging it against March 14 and the establishment of the Special Tribunal.
“If confrontation is our fate, then we are ready for it. National duty is calling on us to face the dark plan that is targeting Lebanon,” Hariri announced.
"This is what we, and the majority of the Lebanese People, would do without any hesitation," Hariri pledged.
He also noted that the majority will not stand still while state institutions and the country’s regions are being torn apart.
“They failed to destroy March 14’s unity and coherence with their threats and challenges,” he declared.
Commenting on the state of obstruction in Lebanon, Hariri said that the opposition has created a public culture of making obstacles by obstructing the state, the constitution, the economy, the parliament, security, dialogue and Paris III.
"I am concerned that in the future any officer would not be accepted as army commander or director of a security agency if he was not loyal to the Baath Party or the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, while he is required to be loyal to Lebanon only," Hariri said.
MP Hariri vowed not to surrender, no matter what. “We will not surrender, no matter what they threaten us with,” he declared.
He concluded by saying: "Salvation is close, God willing, and the state of Lebanon would emerge victorious."
*****
Well, the pretense is gone. The cards are on the table. Confrontation is your fate. Will you stand together against Iran and Syria? Will you stand together as Christian and Sunni? Will you stand with, and welcome, your Shia brothers who do not follow the Iranian path to darkness? Will you stand together as free Lebanese?
We will see on February 14.
Posted by: fubar | Thursday, February 07, 2008 at 11:45 PM
So what if 200 Qatari troops left?
Posted by: Super Dude | Friday, February 08, 2008 at 11:41 AM
Qatari left...Mmmmm something is cooking down the south??
Do they know about something in preparation ? and they are getting the hell out before it breaks lose ?
Beside that, GOOD RIDDANCE, they are the spies of syria and Hizb inside UNIFIL so .... again good riddance!
Posted by: Ex-Aounist | Friday, February 08, 2008 at 02:37 PM
Are the qataris more clever than all the rest? is it a coincidence that their withdrawal took place after the little mishap between the Spanish UNIFIL contingent and the IDF, or is it in acceptance with the Hizb future plan after the Winograd report?
I wonder as to who is preparing for the next DESTRUCTIVE war!!!!!
Posted by: Marillionlb | Friday, February 08, 2008 at 06:05 PM
Let there be war! This is all B.S. . Qataris are full of shit anyways. As Ex mentioned ; "spies". Do you guys think that HA is stupid enough to provoke another war?? If you think so you must be on orange pills.
a. If HA pushes into another war Israel will be more aggressive and will punish the South and Bekaa relentlessly.
b. HA has lost its Lebanese cover. They'll have a hostile 60% of the country pinching against them...Maybe open an interior front against the rest.
c. No one will help them out.
So, I hope there's another war to take out the trash once and for all. At least we won't have Seniora crying any more!!!
Posted by: danny | Saturday, February 09, 2008 at 02:10 PM
Saad Hariri's interview from Tripoli (courtesy of Naharnet)
9:06 MP Saad Hariri's live interview from Tripoli begins
9:07 Gunfire is heard in Beirut and elsewhere in Lebanon in celebration of Hariri's TV appearance. Supporters cheer in the streets of Tripoli, some dancing.
9:12 Hariri: I'm not against street protests, but people want to live.
9:20 Hariri: We are a silent majority. We have been silent for the past three years.
9:23 Hariri: We don't want a confrontation. But if we are dragged into one we will not stay hands tight.
9:24 Hariri: Israel and Syria are the beneficiaries of such a (internal) confrontation. Is this what the opposition wants?
9:29 Hariri: Any Syrian penetration of a Lebanese party is a national, not sectarian, penetration.
9:38 Hariri: I am convinced that Syria does not want presidential elections in Lebanon.
9:39 Hariri: Our understanding of the Arab initiative is one thing, but the opposition is another.
9:41 There is a party that is obstructing a settlement to the crisis. The Syrian regime has taken an anti-election decision.
9:42 Hariri: Why should we say that the Saudi-Syrian row affects Lebanon elections when it is a Lebanese-Lebanese problem.
9:45 If there is a national will, then the problem can be solved away from foreign interference.
10:05 Hariri: What is happening in Beirut is a crime against the capital and its inhabitants. Beirut, like the south, has its people and its history.
10:08 Hariri: March 14 Forces can attract Arab and foreign investment as well as get international help for Lebanon. What can they do for their country?
10:18 Hariri: We want to build a civilized country.
10:26 Hariri: Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir is Lebanon's conscience. Attacking spiritual leaders is disgraceful.
10:29 Christians and Muslims should go down to Martyrs Square on Feb. 14 to defend Lebanon so it won't be assassinated again.
10:31 Hariri: I expect to get justice from the international tribunal.
10:32 Hariri: I have faith that the United Nations is doing a clear, honest and transparent job and a ruling will be issued.
10:33 Hariri: I'm positive of Syria's involvement in Hariri's assassination.
10:45 Hariri: We will continue Lebanon rebuilding and we will achieve our goal of a free, independent Lebanon despite the obstacles.
10:52 Hariri at the end of the interview reminded the opposition that Lebanon will stay and everybody one day would leave. That's why they should think of Lebanon's interests because history has no mercy.
Posted by: fubar | Saturday, February 09, 2008 at 09:46 PM
Fubar,
Assad is no Stalin, so when I see that a man who once begged for an extension for his boys' withdrawal is now able/allowed to confront the west so effectively through his minions, I feel he's being set up for a harder fall..
So in a sense, Saad is right that "history has no mercy", but neither does it have room for "second best". This is a game for drivers only, and M14 have been acting like passive passengers for far too long.
Posted by: Jeha | Sunday, February 10, 2008 at 02:30 AM
Jeha,
Everything in its own time. Passive passengers to you and me, but Lebanon is riddled with guilt and trepidation from the last civil war. How many times have you and others here said, the Lebanese do not want another civil war? Well, Nas is only too aware of that sentiment and has been using it to his advantage. It has taken time to bring the Lebanese into the reality of situation -- unless you are willing to stand up for yourselves, even at the risk of civil war, Nas will roll right over you while you cower in fear left over from your past.
Too slowly for you, too slowly for me, but you only get one chance and so M14 has picked their moment. Never forget that those commenting on AK's blog are not the "average Lebanese". It is too easy to assume that everyone can see what you can see, but "everyone" is usually a lot slower on the uptake - they have had to go a long way from "we are all Hezbollah now."
"Solomon2, what can I do? What action do you want me to take? I'm words in a blogosphere. If you mean that I should prescribe war, I will never, ever do that. I've lived through one, and my family still lives in that country. I cannot get myself to call for a war on Hizbullah. I know that wars in Lebanon always end up with a regional power winning it. I suggest you go listen to Tony's podcast, linked to on MJT's blog. He defines Lebanon very well, a country that survives on certain formulas. I don't like some of those formulas, and I even criticise them on this blog. But because Lebanon is what it is, nobody can win a war. Not if you want to keep Lebanon the diverse place it is.
I don't care about the chances presented to Lebanon by the west, as you alleged. This isn't about the west. This isn't about Israel. And this isn't about alliances with good vs evil. Uneven alliances with outside parties always led to war. This blog calls for Lebanese to apply the rule of law and work things out amongst themselves, keeping in mind their country's best interests. That's the context you should read my posts in.
What many of us are calling for, disengaging Lebanon from the regional swamp, and making the country's interests a priority is a pretty good thing. War isn't.
Posted by: Abu Kais | Tuesday, November 14, 2006 at 08:21 PM"
It has been a long, hard struggle, even for the best of us...
Posted by: fubar | Sunday, February 10, 2008 at 08:33 PM
AK, Fubar,
Indeed, we've all come a long way in this struggle, and the road has only begun. However, one should expect those who lead not to be "a lot slower on the uptake". At the very least, they should show the same levelheadedness and insight as AK and many on this blog.
Posted by: Jeha | Tuesday, February 12, 2008 at 01:15 AM
DILI, East Timor - East Timor declared a state of emergency Tuesday after attacks on the country's top leaders in a failed coup left the president in "extremely serious" condition with gunshot wounds.
Now is that so hard??? One attempted assassination, and the government declares a state of emergency. Can someone send Saniora the memo? This is how it's done, imbecile...
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Tuesday, February 12, 2008 at 01:19 AM
“At the very least, they should show the same levelheadedness and insight as AK and many on this blog.”
Jeha, you are not being totally fair. This little informal think tank that AK has going is filled with people with varying perspectives - Lebanese ex-pats, Americans, even Israelis. It is a hell of a lot easier to be levelheaded when the lives of your immediate family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues are not directly affected by your ideas, words, and actions. Think about those whose opinions you value here. You, my friend, are really the only one with skin in the game.
Posted by: fubar | Tuesday, February 12, 2008 at 06:35 PM
Fubar,
You have a point; I am not being totally unfair, But this is precisely because I have so much "skin in the game". Like many others, I have already missed being the unintended victim of a few blasts. But I am not being so unfair because of that; at the very least, we are all entitled to expect that leaders be smarter than we are... Or that they show the least amount of foresight.
Posted by: Jeha | Wednesday, February 13, 2008 at 07:11 AM
"we are all entitled to expect that leaders be smarter than we are..."
A politician is not necessarily a leader. A sheep herder in this case is more than likely. As for smart, well...
Posted by: Super Dude | Wednesday, February 13, 2008 at 10:10 AM