Trouble in Assad's paradise

Aging Lebanese singer Wadih al-Safi's announcement that he will release two songs dedicated to Syria could not restore color to Bashar's face. Regime stooge Nasser Qandil has also been trying to cheer up his master by spreading a theory that Saudi Arabia, the US, Jumblatt and the Zionists are after him. Mind you Qandil knows that his life is not valued by anyone, not even his pals. But the Assad regime’s pamphleteer is, as instructed, attempting to cover up the humiliation caused by the Mughnieh assassination. Nasrallah’s open war call had failed to remove the question lingering in people hearts and minds. How could the Hizbullah superhero perish in Damascus of all places, under the watch of its intelligence agencies? Was the killing really facilitated by someone from the inside? Trouble in paradise? Has the brother-in-law done it again?

Regardless of whether Hizbullah’s master planner was co-assassinated by the killers of Rafik Hariri, it looks like the Assad game in Lebanon has not brought them relief. A Saudi fleeing Lebanon is not a Saudi going to Damascus, it is a Saudi funding a tribunal. And a summit without a Lebanese president is not a summit worth attending.  This much was made clear by the Saudis and Egyptians, who, after the EU, have learned (the hard way), that the Assad regime deserves what it brings to itself.

It continues to kill Bashar how much importance the world gives to a country such as Lebanon. If you think Beirut is troubled, you haven’t seen Damascus. The regime is so frightened, it has jailed everyone in sight—from political dissidents to bloggers writing about motorcycles. The level of distrust and paranoia is reaching new levels. Isolation is not what the doctor ordered for this regime.

Like you, I follow with utmost disgust Aoun’s adventures as a “negotiator”. It is easy to forget, given the preposterous arguments he advances, that the former general is nothing but an empowered village idiot, who was promised a hut if he moved his act to the town hall. In other words, Aoun is there to buy time, as was Berri before him, before the latter ran out of ideas.

The challenge is to not let ourselves see this as a purely Lebanese matter. Lebanon has a lot at stake, and the opposing side is at fault for lacking imagination, but this is also a battle of wills against the Assad regime. One hopes that the time will come when their house of cards falls apart, hopefully with more of that inside help that brought them isolation. As for Hizbullah, forget Nasrallah's size challenge (the man's shortcomings are exposed with every weapon he hands to a child). Hizbullah is only half of what it used to be, despite the flaunting of rockets, and the occasional remembrance of Moussa As-Sadr. The soil under them is starting to rot. No missile will bring them back what they lost, and what they will lose if the Assad regime continues to devour its own. 

Comments

[Andre]

Nicely done AK as is always the case with your columns and the referential links. I couldn't agree more with your concluding paragraph. The day will come when all of the deadly plots and destructive schemes hatched by the authoritarian syrian regime in self preservation at the expense of everything and everyone, will only serve to hasten its own downfall. After all, no dictatorship that becomes so engaged in desperate acts to save itself has been able to survive too long afterwards. The days may be numbered for Bashar and co. as they become all the more exposed.

[danny]

Excellent AK!!

[Bad Vilbel]

Nicely written, and somehow manages to infuse a touch of hope into another bleak climate.

[Ex-Aounist]

Thanks AK for your superb article, and the glimpse of optimism you are conveying.
Ass-ad plots and schemes will lead him to his own demise, and may will he taste his own medicine.
However, this whole situation it is becoming completely outrageous, as far as I am concerned, the only solution left for Lebanon is to line up all "leaders" of both M8 and M14, against a wall and .....FIRE!
Start Lebanon anew!

[Min Canada]

Once again let me remind you that a war IS being planned and it will not stop at the Lebano-Syrian boarder. As I said before Israel and the US are looking for a provocation from HA to turn any war into a defensive one with which the UNSC will agree condone or at least be split on. Israel will not accept a Nuclear Iran, but that is a few years off. But Israel will also not accept a clear and present danger to its security and the security of its cities and that is not a few years off. It is a few miles away.

Syria was very dismayed by The Sayyid’s speech about open war and the total destruction of Israel not because this kind of rhetoric is unacceptable to them or because it interferes with their underground peace talks as has been reported, but because this speech in itself constitutes enough of a pretext for Israel to launch a pre-emptive strike. Based on the US doctrine (I say US, because the Congress subsequently authorized a war based on this doctrine so it is not just a Bush doctrine) of “We cannot sit still while dangers gather until they are on our shores” Israel can launch a pre-emptive strike on Syria and HA today. They have all they need.

In case of such a war, the initial goal would be to degrade the missile arsenal of HA and Syria to the point where they no longer pause a threat to Israel. The further goal would be to:
a) Drag Iran into the conflict and in the process set back their nuclear program, or
b) Isolate Iran into inaction and break the alliance with Syria and HA.

Hint: Watch for Israel to state that the UN sanctions set to be passed in the very near future against Iran, are not enough and that the dangers need to be addressed by the world community in a stronger and firmer manner. (i.e. If you can’t do the dirty work, we will)

The most recent assessment from my state department source is that Iran will not take the bate, and that has Syria VERY anxious about the prospect of facing Israel as a lone state with no Arab or Iranian support and with just HA on their side. The further assessment is that if Iran does not take the bate, it will point to one of two things:
a) They are at a critical stage in their nuclear process and national security interests trump the Syrian/HA alliance or
b) There remains doubt or vulnerabilities in their defense plans that they do not wish to put to the test.
My source again noted that the last military training exercise in the gulf that was run by the Iranians did expose significant vulnerabilities that the Iranians are aware of and these require further technical defensive assets to be deployed by the Iranians which they have not managed to acquire yet.

My source also wanted me to say that the purpose of leaking the information in this manner is to prevent the war and that he will work with the news media on an “off the record” basis to give more details if needed. If AK permits, you may leave your contact on this blog.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

"...It continues to kill Bashar how much importance the world gives to a country such as Lebanon".

So f***ing true.
.

[Jeha]

Nicely done, AK

There is little to add to this, except that; how will they react when they see themselves cornered? Like Aoun during the Liberation war, will they keep digging themselves (and us) even deeper?

[Bad Vilbel]

Jeha,

Quite likely, yes.

[Vodka]

Did you listen to this lunatic??
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/1676.htm

[Andre]

Saudi Arabia has decided to recall its ambassador from Syria and send him elsewhere given its discontent with the Assad regime. This is probably somewhat trivial for Syria to change its position, however it is an indication that some arab countries are willing to take some steps to get their point across to the leadership in Damascus!

[Meghwar]

(....)
"There is no doubt that Israel's practices in the region imply that it wishes to have no Palestinian state at its borders, not today, not tomorrow, not ever. At the same time, Israel has an objective and de facto alliance with the Syrian regime which supports Hamas and Hezbollah but which - from the Israeli point of view - is capable of controlling these two players when necessary. Khaled Meshaal, after all, resides in Damascus and Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is a frequent visitor to the Syrian capital. The Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak was reported to have informed the Turks that he was interested in negotiating with Syria. He even announced to the residents of the Golan Heights that he was willing to allow them to bear the Syrian citizenship.

Israel strikes its enemies, that is Syria's allies in Lebanon, and strikes Lebanon, but it does not move against Syria unless it has to send a warning message. The Mossad's assassination of Imad Mughniyyeh in Damascus - by the admission of an Israeli diplomat during a dialogue with a western official - represents a message to Syria implying that Israel is capable of striking any target in the heart of Damascus if Syria crosses the lines of the game. Imad Mughniyyeh was also Iran's military arm and a fundamental military official to Iran in the region, not just a military leader at Hezbollah.

His assassination, therefore, was an emphatic Israeli message to Syria similar to previous messages such as the Israeli raid on a military Syrian target a few months ago.

Indeed, the objective alliance between Israel and Syria constitutes some form of guarantee to the Syrian regime as became evident during the Israeli war on Lebanon when several Israeli officials assured the French presidency that Israel would not strike Hezbollah's arms sources because it did not wish to jeopardize the Syrian regime."

http://english.daralhayat.com/opinion/OPED/02-2008/Article-20080227-5b5ac3a3-c0a8-10ed-017c-43242ff7067c/story.html
-------------------------------------------------

As long as Syria is covered and Assad regime defended and protected by Israel ..all the Arabs "measures" and pressures(Summit or no summit) are hot air, and will amount to nothing.

Syria is confident of Israel's protection, for this precise regime is willing cooperate with israel in return of its safety, Golan quiet and calm, Lebanon the usual "NATURAL" battlefield, assholes in hizb the warriors, only Lebanese blood is spelt, only Lebanon is ruined, Iran will soon be flattened if they believe too much their own delusional slogans...as I can see it...If Israel do not take the cover off Assad...this bully on the block will continue hindering any peaceful future in this region, in general, and especially in Lebanon !

Until I see and hear that a war has been started on Syria by Israel, I am sure Lebanon won't be safe ...

[danny]

Correct Meghwar!!

[Min Canada]

Meghwar,

There is a flaud in your statement above:

"Lebanon the usual "NATURAL" battlefield, assholes in hizb the warriors, only Lebanese blood is spelt, only Lebanon is ruined".

The 2006 war showed that the battlefield is Israel as well as Lebanon now and that has changed the equation significantly. This is a status quo that will not be acceptable to Israel and is a more immidiate danger than the nuclear threat from Iran. Syria is not safe and they know it. They are preparing for a war and they know they can be significantly degraded from a military perspective when it happens. That is why they are working for peace at any price, but unless they are willing to give up mish'al and cut ties with HA and stop supporting them AND stop the flow of weapons and trained thugs to Iraq, they are in this thick and they will not escape this time around.

It is evident to anyone that can see that HA is dispensible for both Iran and Syria. If the goal is to drag Iran in or at least test their preparedness, killing HA will not do it.

Understand that despite the spin and even internal Israeli spin about the 2006 war, it was a test run. Many people understood that back then but conveniently forgot that after the "victory". Have you guys been following the Israeli knesit hearings lately? Very interesting. VERY INTERESTING and telling.

[Bad Vilbel]

I'm inclined to agree with Meghwar's general point (even though there may be some flaws in his argument).

The root of the problem for Lebanon has been Israel's "cover" of the Assad regime, due to their notion that Assad is preferable to an unknown Islamic state in Syria (better the devil you know).

And Meghwar is correct in saying that as long as that cover remains, it doesn't matter what the Arabs do. It's all hot air, and Assad knows it. "Warnings" and "sending messages" doesn't do diddly squat unless there is fear of REAL consequences.

[e]

Meghwar and BV,
The argument does not hold water. Israel attacked Syria directly on Sept 6 and probably killed Mughniyeh on Syrian soil. These are not actions of people who are afraid of the consequences of a war with Syria. The Syrians just refuse to bite because they have no delusions about the results of a regional war.

Why won't the Lebanese play the Syrian game? Why not arm a few Druze, smuggle rockets into Syria and shot them at the Golan (please aim at empty areas)? That should give Asad the shakes and make the bargaining with him easier.

[Bad Vilbel]

e,

You're wrong on this count. Israel "attacks" Syria within the confines of the agreed upon red lines. Israel still refuses to accept the notion of regime change in Damascus because Israel is afraid of a Muslim Brotherhood (or similar) type Syria if the Assad regime were to fall.

Syria and Israel have long had a tacit understanding that they will fight their battles in Lebanon, and in covert ops (such as the Mughnieh assassination). And Syria is savvy to that. Assad knows that Israel will not go as far as to take him or his regime out. They'll counter his moves on the chessboards, by cornering his assets, pressing where they can, countering through proxies, etc.

Same as Assad knows better than to attack Israel directly. He's always sure to send others to do that kind of dirty work (Hamas, Hizb, etc.) so as not to give Israel a pretext for all out war, and vice verca.

This game is as old as 1967.

In fact, it's pretty much the same as the US-Soviet cold war. The US and the USSR, altough mortal enemies, made sure to never attack each other directly, for fear of what might happen if they did. The same applies here. It's easy and comfortable for both sides to push for advantages when they can, without ever going "all in" (to use a poker term).

Syria's PRIME objective is not the destruction of Israel. It is the preservation of the Assad regime at all costs. Read Barry Rubin's excellent book on the subject (I believe it's called "The Truth About Syria"). It does a very thorough job at analyzing and explaining the Syrian behavior and their endgame.

[JoseyWales]

"...because Israel is afraid of a Muslim Brotherhood (or similar) type Syria"

BV, I agree with your analysis but I don't understand Israel's position.

Assad is even more afraid of regime change.

I think Israel can have its cake and eat it, by hitting Syria hard enough and often enough to make them stop arming HA, Hamas etc while nevertheless keeping the sicko regime in place.

[danny]

Josey,

Syria has had quiet northern frontier with Syria for over 34 years. As BV stated above there's a tacit agreement between these two to keep the "skirmishes" whithin Lebanon. Israel does not want to be mired in a continuous battle on three fronts; Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.
Israel is afraid of any other "regime" that takes over Syria might not be accomodating enough to them. They might want REALLY the Golan back for example...

Syria, being out of Lebanon seems to have lost some leverage over HA. By their lack of military presense in Lebanon, they have lost a trump card they used to use when dealing with Israel and the West! i.e. Syria always used to boast that they could control everything that HA did. Not any more. I think the Iranian ifluence has been maginfied (Muggsy's funeral...attended by highest ranking Iranians not Syrians)...

Bottom line; Israel will not dive into an unpredictable situation by eliminating their ally in Damascus; not now and not later!I have a bad feeling that the Syrian Israeli negotiations have more to do with the IT than Golan oe "peace". Syria is in peace with Israel not Lebanon!

[Meghwar]

BV, Danny,
You said it all. No need to elaborate. Thanks .

Min Canada,
I think you have read BV and Danny's answers

Danny,
I have your same gut feeling aboutSyria/Israel "peace talks". It is about IT, but still peace negotiations are on the agenda...
However, IMHO, neither Israel nor Syria can hinder IT now .' guess it's bit late to do so.
They could've had a shot at it in 2006; mostly before july war...right now all they can do is save the sorry ass of that SOB Assad by procuring themselves coupla scapegoats.

[Meghwar]

PS. Mughnieh was one of the "scapegoats"...dead but a scapegoat much the same...maybe a silent one is "much the better" for Syrians, in case Iran has different plans.

[Ex-Aounist]

I have the impression that Syria is actually governed by Israel, we all know the story of that Spy "Cohen" who almost made it to the Defense Ministry. The Assads’ were ( and still are ) Israel’s best ally, since they managed to seize power…Their ONLY aim annex Lebanon, an to hell with Golan ...Israel can keep it ...that is the implicit axiom of Assad...and the Int'l Community is aware of such a threat on Lebanon.
------------------------------------------------------
"Kuwait Summons 1,500 Suspects over Mughniyeh Mourning Rally"

http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&4FEF408609D532CEC22573FD0041E8E3

Now that's what I call a SOUVEREIGN Country, not accepting BS on its territories.

Just for the fun of it, How about sending "abouserra" to Kuwait, kinda teaching them how to activate a MoU with Kuwaiti pro-Hizb … :D

[Min Canada]

I think we have all stated our opinions very well. We disagree, but that is the beauty of arguing on this great blog. We can disagree among intelligent adults.

My last point or question. Are your paradigms perhaps pre-2006? Have you considered that Israel has a new perspective on Syria, HA and Iran now than they had before? Please research the assessment of the Israeli war machine of the 2006 war for clues of what they will NEED to do to stem the growing power of HA.

[Andre]

Good analysis. Both Syria and Israel have a tacit understanding when it comes to Lebanon and both have been willing to make it a battlefield to settle their scores for years. However, now that HA has weapons that can reach deep into Israel, making up for the lack of air power, it has become a major concern for Israel. In 2006 as opposed to previous wars where rockets did not fly past border towns inside Isarel, things have dramatically changed. Towns deep inside Israel are being targeted and civilian life is being disrupted and jeopardized, and this has become a psychological weapon that HA can use in its media war to score points against Israel. This is probably the reason Israel can't tolerate this situation anymore even at the risk of upsetting the delicate balance with Syria. Furthermore, Israel is unwilling to take a chance on HA getting much stronger and having far more capabilities to strike at Israel. The assasination of Mughniye may be a warning to both Iran and Syria that a red line may have been crossed with regrads to HA's capabilities and an indication that the current situation has become a Casus belli for Israel. I do not wish for war, but I fear that the next one will be far worse and will not stay confined to Lebanese soil.

[Ex-Aounist]

Damascus: Losing Summit Better than Losing Lebanon
A high-ranking Syrian official said that Damascus is aware that losing the Arab summit is by far better than losing Lebanon's dossier.
"Damascus will not sell out Lebanon to the Americans or their allies for the sake of the summit," said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"On the contrary, it (Damascus) will support its allies in Lebanon and will insist on holding the summit on time and make sure it is not linked to any issue, be it Lebanon or other Arab or bilateral disputes," the official said.

Arab diplomatic sources in Beirut, meanwhile, said it is likely that the summit be moved to Sharm al-Sheikh provided that Syria presents such a proposal.

They said Washington "wishes" for failure of the summit unless efforts were successful in pressuring Syria to make some concessions in the Lebanon dossier.

http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&4FEF408609D532CEC22573FD0041E8E3

-----------------------------------------------------

No Comment !!!!!!!

[Andre]

Ex A,

Syria does not really care about the arab summit anymore...it has been obvious ever since they decided to obstruct the so called arab "initiative". The survival of the syrian baasist regime is directly tied to what happens in Lebanon with respect to IT and its alliances on the ground. It's a no brainer! All of the wheeling and dealing for Syria revolves around IT and its own security. They are desperately trying to find a way out of their own predicament and a meeting with a few arab leaders is worthless for them. Arab summits as we all know is all about show and very little if any about substance.

[Meghwar]

Andre,
Good analysis,
Especially concerning HA military capabilities at reaching the core of Israel, which misbalance indeed the "NATURAL" ground for war, to which Israel retaliated by Killing Mughniyeh, and precisely IN SYRIA, as a message to both Syria and Iran that if you take the war out of its well definite and known boundaries, “we can do the same…”

Consequently Nasrallah’s threats and message ( in the same token ) to Israel declaring open war…IF Israel is thinking of INVADING Lebanon…needless to say that Israel has lots on its hands, in Gaza, with Hamas than to open another front, which means that, if we take a closer look at Nasrallah’s last 2 speeches, we realize that the guy is coming back to his senses, addressing implicitly his foe, acknowledging the pre-established red-lines between Syria and Israel !

Lebanon is the Natural battlefield, for all parties concerned, Syria’s main aim is not be involved in a war with Israel knowing beforehand the outcome and hence the regime would be seriously threatened of collapsing, keeping battles confined in south Lebanon is profitable for both Israel and Syria…

Iran main aim is to spread its influence and be acknowledged as THE regional power to reckon with( in the Gulf area ) instead of KSA no need to explain the obvious as to why, using the Palestinian Cause as the opening through which it would make Arabs populace stand by its side ( and shake the present Sunnis regimes )arming and financing factions Like hamas, like Hizb, and many other factions in Iraq and the Gulf countries, establishing its web, through its military arms in the ME.

USA and Israel won’t stand and watch or let Iran engulf the region, and spread its dogma and threats, without trying to put a halt to the megalomania of Nijad &Co.

Besides, Israel will not tolerate any OTHER "NUCLEAR" country than Israel itself, in the midst of this area…hence as I see it, if a war is going to break…it is not Syria which needs to rethink its plans, it is Iran.

As long as Syria stays out of the danger zone, by not taking part in this war, by attacking or helping in any OBVIOUS manner, I am convinced that Syria’s very comfortable concerning Israel, not only that, Syria is damn sure that this latter won't attack or declare war, if not given any Casus-belli to do so....

Mughniyeh’s killing was a tap on its fingers from Israel to put the regime back on the right track, and trying to put many question marks between Syria and Iran ( which serves Israel ….so 2 birds in one stone ) but Assad survived worse, His main problem is the IT, second on the list re-dominate Lebanon, if Israel is willing to help…he would be grateful !

I can positively say that if Assad is given Lebanon Back and the IT blocked, he would GLADLY deliver IRAN and HIZB in counter-part. All he is waiting for is a new US president to start bargaining Bazar.

[Ex-Aounist]

Andre,
I know Man !!!
Just to put it black on white ....maybe lol/Romeo/proud Lebanese and Co. are reading....:D

If Assad Controls Lebanon, BYE BYE IT ! As simple as that...and Israel wants Assad back in Lebanon to controle HA...back to "Natural battlefield" for both....and Lebanon is ...screwed...thanks to Hizb!

[Ex-Aounist]

A Very Interesting Article in Al -Hayat-

Kuwait, Lebanon and the Damascus Summit!
(.........)
"Today, the summit scheduled for Damascus at the end of the month appears to face a similar division. There is a big and influential Arab state, which is Syria itself, the host of the summit, that has decided after the exit of its troops from the territory of its small neighbor Lebanon, to do away with, by proxy, the remaining sovereignty and independence of this country. (...........) It also inflamed divisions and pursued its policy of heavily arming one of Lebanon's confessions. This has reached the point where the country's stability and future as a state are threatened to a dangerous extent. There appears to be no hope in seeing the situation change soon, especially after the failure of the Arab League initiative to defuse the crisis, even if in stages, despite the wide Arab and international support.

Thus, Damascus has insisted on "eliminating" Lebanon, striving to convene a summit of "the victor and the vanquished," exactly as it is doing in Beirut, and not a summit of reconciliation and solidarity.

What are the possible alternatives for other Arab states that oppose this situation? " (...)

link :

http://english.daralhayat.com/opinion/OPED/02-2008/Article-20080228-60b50b53-c0a8-10ed-017c-4324618cb1f3/story.html

[Shuk]

Hey, has anybody heard about this on lebanese news?

Apparently Mughniyeh's widow says that Syria killed him.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1203847467598&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

Just wondering what peoples thoughts are on this and why this hasn't been covered on naharnet or other lebanese news websites.

[Solomon2]

"Good analysis. Both Syria and Israel have a tacit understanding when it comes to Lebanon and both have been willing to make it a battlefield to settle their scores for years."

The alternative explanation, that Israel really wants peace so it only fights where the threat is, doesn't merit consideration?

[Ex-Aounist]

Shuk,
I read about it on Naharnet 2 days ago!
If Syrians did not kill him, they made it easy for Israel to do so.

[Meghwar]

Quote Solomon2

"The alternative explanation, that Israel really wants peace so it only fights where the threat is, doesn't merit consideration?"

Dude, we shall "consider" after Iran testes its first nuclear missile...and israel fighting " where the threat is ", until then... Give me a F....break !

[Solomon2]

"Until then" may be too late for you if Iran decides to fire that missile from Lebanese territory.

[Ex-Aounist]

Meghwar,
Bear in mind that Iran has one of the Biggest Jewish communities in the area ...if Israel wants to attack Iran ...they need to make sure they are safe .....just saying....

[Ex-Aounist]

Quote Solomon2:
"Until then" may be too late for you if Iran decides to fire that missile from Lebanese territory
"
This means Israel is all talk and Hot air, unable to stop Iran from bringing such Missile to Lebanon, let alone stopping it from having WMD in the first place !

It will be too late for all of us BUDDY!

[Meghwar]

Solomon2-

X-man was faster than I, so I will repeat his sentence :"It will be too late for all of us BUDDY!"

IF it is not already....

[Solomon2]

"It will be too late for all of us BUDDY!"

Wasn't it Nasrallah who spoke of "the decisive battle" against Israel being fought from Lebanese territory? None of these things have to happen if Lebanese stand up for their country, or at least swallow their pride, admit they have a problem, and beg the U.N. to act on their behalf. The U.N. is right there, and all the world is waiting for is for Lebanese to get their act together and show a speck of civic courage rather than cowardly exploit foreigners for financial and partisan Lebanese gains.

"Civil War", you say? As East Timor demonstrates, it isn't likely the next civil war could be like the previous one with U.N. forces to back up Army forces.

[Bad Vilbel]

Solomon,

We're not arguing that Israel wants peace. I believe they do, as long as they are not threatened. I think you're misreading what we're talking about here. Don't get so defensive.

Everyone wants peace (except the wackos). But until peace is achieved, you have to fight a war (in this case a cold war), usually for the purpose of improving your "hand" at the negotiating table, when it's time for peace. And while you're fighting this war, you usually go by some rules of engagements, or tacit understandings (as the US and USSR did during the cold war, and as Israel and various Arab States are doing right now).

That is the reality of any war.

To answer Min Canada's last question. I do believe that paradigm in Israel is shifting a bit since 2006. But I don't think that the leadership in Israel has come to terms yet, with the fact that they'd support a regime change in Syria. I think that is part of the problem with the Israeli leadership at the moment. The reason Olmert and his group appear "weak" to a lot of Israelis, and to a lot of Arabs (i'm not saying I necessarily agree).
I mean, hell, when the 2006 war broke out, the FIRST thing Olmert did, right after bombing the Beirut airport, was to publicly proclaim "We will not attack Syria. We are only attacking Hizballah." even WHILE the Syrians continued supplying weapons and rockets to Hizballah. What kind of signal does THAT convey to the Syrians? It's pretty clear if you ask me. It means "we're on to your game, and we're gonna keep shooting down your pawns, but we won't touch you." What a joke THAT was.

[Meghwar]

"rather than cowardly exploit foreigners for financial and partisan Lebanese gains. "

Look who's talking about exploitation... We Lebanese Know that Israel want Lebanese to do ITS DIRTY JOB even if it takes a civil war to make HA back off ...seems Israel cannot Handle Hizb on its own...
One last thing ...UN is not in south to fight Hizb pal, so try something else ...for Instance, FIGHTING where YOU SHOULD and Cutting the head's snake ...much better for you, otherwise...we are all gowing down, and I mean ALL Israel as well...so please again spare the whining !

[Meghwar]

Correction : the head of the snake Iran

[Solomon2]

BV: The Olmert government's message is, "Guns don't kill people, people kill people, so we're going after the killers to the best of our ability". Not my choice of policy, for it makes power-mad generals, dictators, and terror masters exult, but in the Israeli mind this is the way to comply with international law. Exceptions are made for strategic existential threats, as the strike on Syria shows, but that's about it.

".UN is not in south to fight Hizb pal, so try something else ...for Instance, FIGHTING where YOU SHOULD "

UNIFIL's mandate under is broad enough to encompass confronting Hezbollah if the Lebanese government wishes - and if the UNIFIL commander agrees to help.

More importantly, your attitude, Meghwar, confirms once again a Lebanese mentality that is sectarian, not national and legal, in scope: that the responsibility for enforcing Lebanon's peace and sovereignty belongs to others. With that kind of attitude, how sensible is it to bleat about outsiders using Lebanon as their battlefield?

[Bad Vilbel]

Solomon,

Your description of the Olmert policy is exactly the problem I was describing earlier. What's the point in going after the idiots and pawns? You kill them, their puppetmasters will just push more of them out in your direction. It will never end that way.

It's like the idea of curing a disease, say AIDS or Cancer, but putting ointment on the scabs and lesions on the skin.
Sure, you might kill THAT particular lesion. But guess what...a new one is going to pop up elsewhere on the body (because the main cause...the cancer or whatever, that's inside you, is still there).

And as long as Israel's leadership is shy of going after the cancer (for many reasons), the whole "game" is going to continue being the same: You cure a scab here, another appears there. So you rush to cure that one, all the while knowing that the cancer is still inside. And the cancer KNOWS that you're reluctant to go for the major surgery. He KNOWS you've accepted this low-grade level of fighting scabs and lesions. So he's gonna play with you at that level. But he knows deep inside that you're not going after him in person. He knows that the worst you're gonna do is attack his extremities to prevent him from spreading too far. But he's overall pretty safe.

[JoseyWales]

Solomon, BV, Danny,

Goes back to my point above about hitting Syria to cut off Hezbo.

Granted Lebs have their shortcomings and there is no substitute for solving our own problems.

But from an Israeli perspective, things are not working either.

The Golan is quiet. Fine but that does not mean Israel can't force Syria to shut down the Hezbo front.

As sure as hell, the logical conclusion of a missile armed Hezbo is what? Deeper and daedlier attacks on Israeli cities very soon? Can you live with that?

Like BV said even if Israel won't attack Syria, why say so? So fucking Assad won't shoot at you by mistake? Har haar. Trust me, he never will.

What Olmert et al are doing is further fluffing Assad's pillow so that he sleeps like a fucking baby, while Lebs and Israelis are killing one another. Thanks.

Suit yourself, but another negative is that anti-Israeli suspicions mount, even with those who would be more inclined to talk/want peace one day.

lose

[Solomon2]

BV: In my opinion, Israel's leaders may become more amenable to attacking the Asad regime if more of the world, or at least the Lebanese leadership, publicly asked them to do so. But no, Lebanon can't quietly or privately ask Israel to do the deed; Israel has been betrayed by "private understandings" with Lebanese "friends" too often in the past, most recently the cease-fire of the 2006 war when Lebanon's leadership promised "a Lebanese solution to the Hezbollah" but so far has delivered comparatively little.

Somebody in Lebanon is going to have to stick his neck out; there has to be some Lebanese leader out there who loves Lebanon the nation more than his sect, clan, family, or self. Lebanese soldiers who fought to root out a nest of Al-Qaeda terrorists have already met this challenge. Can Lebanon's leaders rise to do so? And if not, are there Lebanese out there willing to stick up and become leaders themselves? That's what civic courage is all about. (Perhaps that courage may come more easily now that Imad Mughniyeh is dead rather than fashioning car bombs to assassinate Lebanese leaders.)

I think you'll agree that doing so could make all the difference in the world: the end of Hezbollah, peace on the border with Israel, the collapse of the Iranian mullahs' imperial policies, and the probable end of the Asad regime. And Lebanon would be on track to becoming a happy country once more.

A hundred different Israeli prime ministers or French or American presidents can't do it. But it will only take one Lebanese leader to make the difference.

[Renee]

Heads up guys. The USS Cole is headed for Lebanon.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSWAT00901020080228?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

[Charlie]

Yeah, just saw a breaking news on msnbc about the Cole heading to the coast off Lebanon..

Fubar, time to chat dude..:-)

[Bad Vilbel]

Solomon, while i don't disagree on the need for the Lebanese to take care of their own house, I don't really understand why you need us (or anyone else) to ASK you to attack Syria when it's attacking you every day!!! Your logic makes no sense. Why do you need the Lebanese to ask you to do this or that? You don't answer to us. If you have a problem with the Syrian regime for supporting terror, take it up with them.

You don't seem to have any problems attacking Gaza or South Lebanon when you feel the need for it. You don't wait and ask permission for that. Why would you wait and ask permission to attack Syria?

[Meghwar]

Quoting Solomon2-

"UNIFIL's mandate under is broad enough to encompass confronting Hezbollah if the Lebanese government wishes - and if the UNIFIL commander agrees to help."

The Lebanese Government will not ask UNIFIL, bcz it is not this latter job, and in case the Leb. Gov. does, UNIFIL will not accept. That you can be sure of, Hizb will be disarmed either by total annihilation from a party better armed than them,( neither Lebanese army nor UNIFIL are) or by accepting to disarm and join the Lebanese army, peacefully, through negotiations with Leb. Gov.no 3rd alternative, AND DEFINITELY NOT what you are "suggesting".

Quoting Solomon2-
“More importantly, your attitude, Meghwar, confirms once again a Lebanese mentality that is sectarian, not national and legal, in scope: that the responsibility for enforcing Lebanon's peace and sovereignty belongs to others. With that kind of attitude, how sensible is it to bleat about outsiders using Lebanon as their battlefield?"

1-Sectarianism has nothing to do with the issue at hand, your red herring is worthless, Any militia endangering Lebanon as Hizb is doing nowadays will get the same reaction from me. so you can sue me...

2- I really don't give a rat's ass what you think of my attitude, or of my mentality considering that you are accusing others of what the ZIONISTS are infamous for, my advice...spare yourself the embarrassment!

Lebanon safety and peace belongs to Lebanon, Take your war where it should be and stop attacking Lebanon, Hizb raison-d'etre will disappear and then they will be forced to disarm by the Lebanese. As long as Israel is giving them an alibi, and as long as you are in bed with Assad, I can guarantee you, Hizb missiles will reach Tel-Aviv... you are the one whining about Iran-Syria-Hizb then it is your problem. And besidews you want our "SECTARIAN" permission to hit Syria ??? why ??? what's the heck is wrong with Israeli Gov. to take such a decision ? having the balls to do so on their own ??? You were lecturing us about courage and that we should deal with matters without any kinda help or permission and so on and so forth, weren't you ??? My advise, repeat this lecture to Israeli Gov..

Syria – Hizb are our problem, we are dealing with them in the limits of our possibilities, and with the help of the Int'l community, You want us to disarm hizb even if takes us a civil war, we won't do it, we won’t give Israelis neither Syrians this service.

Really dude ...snap out of it, get down from your high horse and smell the coffee, which if you continue with this attitude of yours, will soon be mixed with the nuclear aroma Iranian blend.

PS. If you do not like the message ...do not shoot the messenger.

[e]

meghwar,
Israel should really be attacking all of Lebanon because the Lebanese do not control their borders and let Hizballah smuggle weapons. No? Isn't that where Israel should take its war?

Even if Israel attacks Syria, as long as the Lebanese show no back bone, Iran can supply Hizballah by sea and continue sending them money. Attacking Syria does not solve the Hizballah problem. For that you need Lebanese-Israeli cooperation, something that you are not willing to contemplate.

The message is simple. Unless you cooperate with Israel in disarming Hizballah, your country will be a battlefield. If you are willing to drink a bucket of shit so that Israel drinks a thimble of urine, be my guest.

[Min Canada]

Headline:
"US Dispatches Destroyer USS Cole to Express Concern over Situation in Lebanon"

The USS Cole does not travel alone folks. It travels as one of a group of navel ships. When they say that the USS Cole is on it's way, it means THE USS COLE, and its group is on its way. Also keep in mind that setting a group like this in motion is a major expense. You don't do it to send a message. You can do that by issuing a communication piece or sending unambigious messages.

Now, can you remember a SINGLE Arab/Israeli war where the US did not have assets near by for intellegence, logistic and even munition support?

I believe my State department source. He has no reason to lie to me. Re-read my post on top and at least take precautions if you are in the neighbourhood. You cannot lose in taking precautions even if you don't want to believe me.