Obama, Lebanon and the myth of change

Someone got Barak Obama to comment on Lebanon. While he spoke against Syrian and Iranian meddling, and urged the disarming of Hizbullah, he also gave us this gem:

“Washington musts rectify the wrong policy of President George Bush in Lebanon and resort to an efficient and permanent diplomacy, rather than empty slogans,” he added. He also said that the US must cooperate with its European and Arab allies to sponsor an inter-Lebanese consensus on a stable and democratic Lebanon. (Now Lebanon)

Readers of this blog will find this painfully hilarious, and possibly indicative of Obama's ignorance of the situation in Lebanon. I don't expect the presidential hopeful to read Lebanese news every day, but really, the situation has gotten so repetitive that it should be clear that the above statement is at best moronic. What kind of diplomacy that has not been tried before by the "Europeans and Arab allies" will help Lebanon? I am not going to defend the Bush administration's policy in Lebanon. It may reek of "empty slogans" at times, but how does talking to criminals create solutions? And pray explain how supporting the Hariri tribunal, as Obama said he does, can be reconciled with chatting up the ones who killed him?

Obama's Super Tuesday speech could have been inspiring. "We are the ones we have been waiting for", he said. Despite its beauty, the speech reeked of the same "empty slogans" Obama complains his competitors inflict on people. Running foreign policy on the basis of "talking to those we don't like" makes the world look like an old episode of the Oprah Winfrey show with Obama filling in for Dr. Phil.

I, for one, am not waiting for Barack. His path is long and winding, and if Bush suffered of ignorance at the beginning of his first term, then Barack will not make up for it through fancy talk. The only "change" I see from a Barack administration, as far as foreign policy is concerned, is the change that will befall the naïve president, and that will hit his supporters like a slap in the face.

Our moment is indeed now, not when Obama learns the ropes.

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

Indeed. I agree with you 100%. Which is why I personally would like to see McCain in the White House come January. But by Lebanon time, that's still a long ways away.

[Ex Aounist]

Obama is the worst thing that could ever happen to Lebanon, if he is to be elected president.

AK hit the nail on the head!

BV, I as well want McCain in the White House , at least the man knows WHO he is dealing with...as far as syria , Iran, Iraq etc etc...and the whole barren bloody M.E. area is concerned.

Still I think that Obama is not going to make it ....Call me "Michel Hayek" if you want but ...I have a feeling that it is either Hilary or McCain...

[R]

Folks,

Regardless of who the next president of the US is, they will all have to learn the ropes. None of them is an incumbant or a vice president - though Hillary has Bill to lean on (woopdidoo).

Anyway... They will all try some form of dialogue first and they will all fail. Mccain, Clinton, Obama... they will all try dovish approaches at first and then figure it out. The problem is not with the US or whoever will end up president there. It is with us, the lebanese; we didn't take the necessary steps throughout our history to build a viable democracy and we keep taking every possible counterproductive one... At least Obama is a new face whose father/husband/wife/son was not a sectarian politician, and in the US - in 2008 - you can be an African American and have a shot at the white house. In Lebanon in 2008 - if you are christian but not maronite or not christian you cannot legally be president. Go figure.

AK, it is commendable that you not wait for Barack Obama to save Lebanon. But you should not wait for Hillary Clinton, John Mccain, Robert Mugabe or Godot for that matter. The only thing that will change Lebanon is the Lebanese growing the moral and humanitarian capacities to stop discriminating against one another, to stop fearing one another, to stop listening to demagogues and ideologues who never built nations but excelled at self-destruction, and to start forging a national identity based on higher principles. Since there is no chance of that happening, then I don't see a difference in terms of the situation in Lebanon whoever wins the next US election.
/rant

[Bad Vilbel]

Well said, R.

[Ex-Aounist]

R...HIT the bull's eye...Well said Man !

[Ex-Aounist]

But one thing I forgot to Add ...even if it takes Lebanese to change matters internally...it takes a Capable ally to Help you get there...( how do you think Hizb is so capable of reaking havoc without back up ??) if Lebanon's interests cross with those of the US and the President to be ...MUCH the BETTER....If not...well .....we all know the sad truth don't we ?

[AK]

R, true, however it was Obama who pontificated on Lebanon, like a messiah of change he isn't. I have no expectations of him or anyone else. My point was that I'm not waiting for something that will not come.

And for the record, I am not waiting for Mugabe to save Lebanon. :)

[Ex-Aounist]

Guys,
Let's not kid ourselves pls, and let's not hide behind our finger.....USA is leading the world...to heaven or hell that 's another issue, what's important is Lebanon...and at the end of the day, and given the choice, I prefer USA hell than Syria / Iran Heaven .

[ex-believer]

Even if the US start playing *hard* on syria/iran, and through that, sever the lifeline for hizb, the *only* thing that would buy us is *time* so *in theory*, M14 could play in the same terms as M8.
But we all know what M14 does with time....
So, in the end, no matter what US candidate wins

But, folks, don't lose the hope so fast - we always will have Amr Mousa and the "Arab troupe"!!!
Ok. you can laugh now.

But, seriously, there's a lebanese way out (no, not the airport) ?
sadly, la adry...

[tg]

The only use Lebanon has to the US is as a bargaining tool in their showdown with Iran.

[Fawzan]

Folks, I thing Amir is making a big mistake coming back to Lebanon. I have a deep feeling that he may not make it out alive. I can't give you any reason why I think so, but my gut tells me he is at high risk.

[Andre]

Obama is just a baby when it comes to foreign policy and especially the ME or Lebanon...he says what he's been fed by his bunch of experts and advisors. These candidates of so called "change" have no experience and are just trying to impress the electorate by throwing buzzwords around...don't expect them to understand the situation. Both Clinton and McCain are more experienced candidates but who cares? It takes at least 4 years for a president to "get it" and then another four if elected to actually implement relevant foreign policy....let's not tie Lebanon's destiny to anyone of these candidates...besides US foreign policy in the ME has always been to walk that fine line b/w security/oil interests and that of a certain ally that does have its true support and receives billions upon billions of dollars with gusto.
Wake up people NO ONE will ever lift a DAMN finger for our salvation, we have to do it ourselves as mentioned above by many. The question is do we have the courage to do it or are we just plain "talk" and no action? sadly the lebanese way has long been associated with the latter...with the exception of a few months in 2005...already long forgotten!

[Ramzi]

I think Obama will make mistakes in the beginning in regards to policy towards Syria, but he will learn ala Sarkozy. But a less threatening posture towards Iran my benefit Lebanon in the long term. Also if he carries through with removing troops from Iraq and moves the US into less of a "us vs. them" mentality, the anti-americanism that is so rampant in the MidEast will start to defuse and this also is in the long term interests of Lebanon. Obama is much better than the overly militant McCain and the "dont call me weak on defense" overcompensation of Clinton.

[Ex-Aounist]

Andre,
It is not Lebanese who are relying on the US to help them or Screw them (mostly) ...
We are not tying Lebanon's destiny to any of these candidates...yet these candidates’ policies will affect Lebanon...like it or not!
It is our Geo-political position in this bloody area! What can we do if we are surrounded by 2 bullies, who by "chance" and connivance are working together to keep Lebanon their battlefield and vent ! Syria and Israel were in bed together, they still are and Lebanon is changing the sheets every time they start over!

To add insult to Injury, the new player we have is Hizb ( instead of Palestinians of the 70s and 80s used as pawns by BOTH Syria and Israel ) this Hizb created by Iran, whose main aim is to be the NEWEST BULLY on the block and Most Importantly acknowledged as such by the USA.
We are trapped and surrounded...
Alas, Geography is beyond our control, we cannot move AWAY !
So having all these bullies threatening us day in day out, let's at least make sure the big boss is on our side, even if he is not that trustworthy, still I say better have the US on our side rather against us !

Ramzi
As far as I am concerned Obama is another ass who knows sh*t about the M.E. you were saying he will learn! ( After making mistakes ) GREAT! But I am sure you forgot that WE LEBANESE are going to pay for these mistakes, we will be screwed big time...thank you very much, we cannot afford the luxury of Mr "Apprentice-President" mistakes ...
As for the anti-Americanism, NOTHING absolutely nothing will change it if the Arab-Israeli conflict is not SOLVED and worked out for good, Palestinians getting their viable state ( If they do not insist on wiping Israel off the map....that is )!
Whether the US withdraw from Iraq or stays there forever...anti-Americanism is not about Iraq, it is about ISRAEL, Palestine, and also ( to a lesser extent ) occupied Golan(Syria)...
Lebanon? Just another card to use...Sad but true!

[Ramzi]

Ex Aounist,

I am not endorsing Obama, but compared to the other two remaining candidates at least he will arrive at the White House willing to take a hard look at the current foreign policy and make changes. I'm of course not expecting a miracle. But Clinton's foreign policy is a known quantity and so definitely nothing good will come out of that. The Clinton's already had 8 years to run things.

With McCain you will just get the same Bush policy in the ME and increased escalation against Iran, and if the US attacks Iran things will really get ugly in Lebanon. Also it's stunning how many of ME descent support McCain when he was the #1 cheerleader of Bush's Iraq war.

The best Dem or Republican candidate for resolving ME issues would be Ron Paul and Kucinich.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ramzi says:

Also if he carries through with removing troops from Iraq and moves the US into less of a "us vs. them" mentality, the anti-americanism that is so rampant in the MidEast will start to defuse and this also is in the long term interests of Lebanon.

Forgive me if I laugh at this statement. Don't tell me you blame the rampant anti-Americanism in the ME on George W Bush. I'll remind you that the idiot sheeple throughout the Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, have been chanting "Death to the Great Satan" for over 4 decades (and countless US administrations). This line or reasoning of yours is based on a fallacy that all the anti-americanism started in 2003 with the war in Iraq. That is completely false. The anti-Americanism in the region has been brainwashed into the masses by decades of empty rhetoric by the "revolutionary" regimes in Syria, Iran and their countless proxies. This stuff isn't new. And this will NOT go away, for the simple reason that this rhetoric and anti-Americanism are necessary for regimes like the Syrian regime to justify their existence.

[Ex-Aounist]

Ramzi,
First, I Apologize for the long post J but let me explain why ….I am endorsing one instead of the other.

You are free to endorse whomever you want man, and as you have put it WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MIRACLES, neither from Obama nor from any other US elected president, they do not care about Lebanon, it is another pawn on the chess-board.

We all agree on the Clintons'...and am 100% with you concerning Ron Paul, I wanted him to win this race, but let's be realistic, he won't make it, hence I am for Mc Cain because it is much better for Lebanon to have a Bush-Copy Policy than a Clinton's or Obama's Total Chaos...whether by letting Syria back into Lebanon…or giving her free hand, or even bargaining on the IT !

Besides if Mc Cain gets elected, I do not think he will be this eager to attack Iran...but at Least he will keep both Syria and Iran on leash...and in case Iran is attacked do you think Hizb could afford attacking Israel ??? After all that happened since 2006? I doubt...because this would the end of hizb and arms, besides south and Dahieh would be bombed to smithereens, and no country would move a finger to help hizb this time…let alone that Iran would be licking its own wound to bother sending money to their troupes in Lebanon to keep the shiaa ’s “complaints” muffled after the destruction….

As far as I am concerned, I'd rather have someone we know of his stances (even if he supported Bush's war on Iraq) because honestly I DO NOT give a rat’s ass about Iraq, for me Lebanon is the most important, what happened in Iraq let the US and Iraqi take care of, we had enough crap with the Arab “Palestinian Cause” and now we are adding Iraq (not forgetting Golan and all that… bla bla…) let them take care of their own BS, enough !! Lebanon paid for all the ARABS, time we get something Back from all of them, as far as Obama is concerned, this new kid on the block, have a big carrot and a microscopic stick , he wants to talk and talk and negotiate, someone needs to inform the guy that those Persians are the creators of Chess, and the fathers of such long-breath diplomatic maneuvers and I do not want to see the results of how Obama deals with that iranian bully in Lebanon !

Maybe later when things get clearer and we know and make sure, in Lebanon, that Syria won't mess with us again, and that Iran won't use Lebanon as a card to threaten Israel if attacked by the US, through their Passdaran and Bassidj in Lebanon,
then and only then, I myself will vote Obama.... but for the time being...my vote goes Mc Cain.

[Andre]

Ex-Aounist,

McCain is my choice too but I do not believe that he will move in OUR interest. He will adopt a harsh line vis-a-vis Iran and Syria but it will only worsen the polarization b/w Iran/Syria and the US which will have a negative ramification on Lebanon. However, I do not want to see a candidate experienced or not that will play games a la Sarkozy only to find themselves deceived and embarassed by those masters of deceits that they are...we still need a strong and steadfast president in the White House that will not compromise his values and will demand accountability from these thugs, however difficult the situation might get as a result! I still think that in the end we control our own destiny if we just took the initiative as it hapenned in 2005!

[Ex-Aounist]

Andre,

"....but it will only worsen the polarization b/w Iran/Syria and the US" ????!!!!!!

As If it haven't taken place already !!!!!

Then let it worsen ... bcz in Lebanon, as a direct consequence of this polarization,( since 2000 ) we are all ALREADY in deep shit, accused of treason, zionism, Sheytan Akbar agents, traitors and all the "Tahleel dam " hence easily assassinated, crippled politically, and last week was the army turn after Bkerkeh, ( latest plan by syria ) and all that BS executed by Hizb&Co.( with the eager help of that stupid bozo cl-Aoun)!

Killing, explosions, a Government totally paralyzed, parliament closed...Army attacked in an attempt to cripple it as well or discredit it, almost a civil strife , worsen???? ...yeah is there anything left to worsen ???? Maybe Hizb Attacking Israel ...and it would be the cherry on the cake!

What do you expect from these people, they are not church choir boys, and their attacks and undermining won't stop until the total ANNIHILATION of the March 14th and the Cedar Revolution if not L:ebanon herself.

For the rest, With you all the way,

March 14 screwed so many occasions ....especially kicking out lahouss and the elections by 50 + 1 ...these people are incompetent imbeciles, somehow I feel that they are worse than M8 because they were supposed to Save Lebanon by their actions, if you ask me, Having no balls, THEY ARE MAKING THINGS WORSE !

[Doha]

AK,

If I wanted to be cynical, then of course I'll think that Obama is very idealistic and might hit hard ground if elected President and that his talk of changing the status quo might be the toughest thing ever to change in DC circles. But if looked at from a different prism, Obama is an inspiring figure and he's a leader. You have to give him that. I for that matter, have fallen for his ways way back when I first got to know hear him speak at the Democratic Convention in 04.

Let's face it: it's neither Bush nor Obama will get us out of our deadlock in Lebanon. We can be thankful that for the time-being both Bush and Obama still think that Lebanon is worth mentioning in their speeches (Bush mentioned Lebanon three times in his State of the Union speech, which is a freakin big deal, given the importance of each word, which only shows that Bush's Middle East policy or foreing policies at large have utterly failed, let's face it, Lebanon is a failure). Lebanon's only importance at this moment is due to Iran's meddling in the area; that's all. Or else we would not be even on the DC radar screen. Yes, as Obama said, Bush only gives us empty slogans.

I don't know what we expect from Obama or any other US President: to send tanks rolling to Lebanon to force inept politicians to elect a President? Or to send tanks rolling to bomb Hizbullah out? Or to declare a war on meddling Iran once and for all? Or to smoke out Syria?

Diplomacy is always the safest option, provided we get our shit together. I'm so disappointed in Lebanon, so disappointed. And I've decided to vote for the next US President based on other important criteria than his or her stance towards our part of the world. Let's be clear: I'm not going to love Bush now because he mentioned Lebanon three times in his state of the union address. I'm not.

It's time for change and I know that Obama might not win the presidency, because let's be honest, Mccain is more "electable" (a WASP male) who will not threaten the status quo, but Obama has inspired a movement and a great following.

[Ace]

The Bush "empty slogans" are what is keeping Lebanon going today. What do you think will happen if Bush and the other nations that give these "empty slogans" of support to the Lebanese Government - along with their millions of dollars to Lebanon and the Lebanese Army? It is not reasonable to expect the USA or any other country to come into Lebanon and go to war with Hezbollah or to bomb Syria to stop them from taking over Lebanon again. The Lebanese have to do this themselves and the most the others can offer at this time is to make it clear to Syria that they need to keep their hands off of Lebanon.

Obama is a wonderful orator (much like Nasrallah) and a great inspiration. I like everything he says in his message - but how will he do any of it? He never says any of that and he has no understanding of the situation in Lebanon at all. He says Bush only got interested in Lebanon after Hariri was killed and we all know that is not the case. Obama seems to know nothing about the SALSRA act or UN 1559 that helped to push Syria out of Lebanon. He will engage in dialog with Assad and seems to think that will solve everything. We pretty much know what happens after one of these "dialogs" - another assassination.

There are several things that all Americans know about John McCain. He is a man of extraordinary courage which has been tested time and again. He had the courage to remain a POW even after the Vietnamese offered to release him because others had been there longer than he and he had the courage to go against his political party to root out the corruption and to work with the other party for the good of the country. He can't be bought and that's important. The lobbies in Washington have tremendous influence on politics and McCain is the least likely of all candidates to resist the special interest of those lobbies.

He won't just walk away from Iraq, but he might be the one who can clean out the US corruption and deals in Iraq and - he won't walk away from Lebanon.
If McCain was "the same as Bush" - his own party would be behind him ....... they have been totally against him - and it's because he can't be controlled by their special interests and political thinks tanks.

[Doha]

Ace and others,

Please, please, please, let's stop hinging our hopes on potential US presidents. US Presidents do what's in their country's own good and interest and that is the way it should be. Right? When Lebanon becomes too much of a liability, then none will give a rat's ass about us. Iraq and Iran are of paramount importance to the US and that's where the discourse is foreign-policy wise, not Lebanon.

Wake up and smell the coffee!

[Ex-Aounist]

Opportunity in Sight for a Peaceful Offensive on Defiant Sides
Raghida Dergham Al Hayat - 08/02/08//

(............)

"We will not fear you" should not be the slogan of the Palestinian experience alone, but must also be the foundation to revive momentum in Lebanon to regain the initiative that reinforces the authority of the Lebanese state rather than the pro-Syrian or pro-Iranian militias. When the peaceful crowds take to the streets next week to commemorate the third anniversary of Hariri and his companions, let them raise the slogan "We will not fear you." It is high time to reject intimidation and to stand up to the attempts to fragment Lebanese institutions at the orders decreed by Damascus and Teheran and obeyed by General Michel Aoun who is obsessed about becoming president, or Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who is determined to keep Hezbollah's arms to maintain Lebanon as an Iranian base.

Hezbollah has lost its credibility and its so-called accomplishments as a result of a series of violations. It refrained from participating in the cabinet sessions; it hindered the election of a new president; and it refused to withdraw from Beirut's downtown to allow people to return to their jobs to make a living. Worst of all, it has lost the friendship of the Lebanese army as it became clear to the army that Hezbollah has an interest in undermining it to gain the upper hand. Hence, Hezbollah is not the only representative of the Shiites of Lebanon because its loyalty is more Iranian than Lebanese. It is time for Hezbollah to hear the words: We fear you no more!

The ruling regime in Damascus, on the other hand, has to fear the major blunders that it may commit at the peak of its anger. Syria will never return to Lebanon even if Lebanon is pushed into civil war because such a war will be sectarian in nature and will ultimately backfire at the regime in Syria. Syria cannot isolate itself from such a war, especially since it has excessively offered safe haven and passage for the elements of al-Qaeda and its likes, which operate in Iraq and stay as "guests" on Syrian territories. Syria will never return or be returned to Lebanon under any circumstances.

Syria is now in shock. Its president had vowed not to surrender any citizens to the tribunal. Its government systematically worked on undermining the establishment of the tribunal and laid its bets on neutralizing it through a series of bargains and political favors. Now, however, all Syrian hopes to eliminate the tribunal have been dashed away and the Syrian leadership must carefully rethink its options. None of these options include the sacrifice of minor suspects in the assassinations because the evidences are now out of the hands of politicians and are ready for the trial. The culprits know exactly what this means. Those thinking of protecting anyone under any circumstances may be putting the entire regime at risk. Even those contemplating the sacrifice of senior officials must think beyond the survival of the regime because that survival deal has become more complicated, as impunity is no longer an option. Hence, the message to the Syrian regime should be: We will fear you no more because it is too late for you to intimidate us.

The pro-government forces of the March 14 Movement have decided to launch a peaceful offensive against the status quo as a result of the continued assassinations and the persistent public frustration. This comes as it has become crystal clear that repeated concessions to the opposition allied with Syria and Iran is useless, and after Nicholas Michel has made it obvious that the tribunal is due soon and will not be stopped by a political deal or instigated chaos. Hence, the March 14 initiative involves a massive popular movement on February 14 in commemoration of the Hariri assassination to reorganize the ranks of the Movement. The Movement has decided to say "enough!" to the concerned parties, including Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa who, in the name of diplomacy, refuses to name names and instead seeks a flexible but indecisive mediation. The Movement has decided to offer fewer concessions and become more decisive and resolved.

Right now, there is a valuable opportunity that demands the adoption of an integrated offensive strategy which requires shedding the burdens of a few opportunists who act as consultants here and theoreticians there. It requires the courage to say: we will not fear you no matter what! First, the international community is committed to the investigation and the tribunal. Realizing that it has erred in assuming good intentions in Damascus, France is back along with the wrath of Europe at the Syrian maneuvering. The Arab States, for their part, are increasingly holding Syria accountable for the presidential void in Lebanon. As for the United States, it will not retreat on the main pillars of the American policy toward Lebanon; those expecting otherwise from a new president should read into the words of Democratic candidate Barack Obama who upset any bets on his leniency with Damascus, Hezbollah and their allies once he made it clear that he supported the disarming of all militias and the tribunal, shutting all doors against deals and bargains.
*****************************************************

Doha,

With all due respect to your opinion, I am afraid that our geo-political position in this area ties us ( unwillingly ) to all this mayhem, and whether we like or not, the US Foreign policies, and the next president, will have HUGE and DEFINITE consequences on Lebanon...and her future. Utopia is good...Reality is a BITCH !

We as Lebanese should do our homework, I give it to you, yet if we are ALONE it won't be SUFFICIENT, considering that Syria and Iran are not church boys....

You need to change your coffee ;) :)

[Doha]

...So, do you think the US will back us if we decide to go to war? (check AK's most recent post about Jumblatt). I don't think so. If they do, they're only doing it to counteract Iran. Is this deja-vu or what (cold war era)? It's the same old, same old. Unfortunately, we don't make history in our part of the world; it just all repeats itself!

[جبهة التهييس العشبية]

هو انتوا لقيتوا بعض فين؟