March 14 puts war on the table

In one of his most aggressive speeches since the civil war, Walid Jumblatt said March 14 will go to war against Hizbullah if that’s what the militia wants. “Our existence, dignity and Lebanon are more important than anything else. You want disorder, so be it.”, he said, addressing Hizbullah and the forces he said are trying to bring back Syrian hegemony. ”You want war, so be it. We have no problem with weapons, no problem with missiles. We will take your ready-to-use missiles. We have no problem with martyrdom and suicide.”

واذا كنتم تظنون اننا سنقف مكتوفي الايدي فهذا امر من الخيال قد نضطر لحرق الاخضر واليابس، وجودنا وكرامتنا وبقاؤنا ولبنان اهم من كل شيء. تريدون الفوضى اهلا وسهلا بالفوضى. تريدون الحرب فاهلا وسهلا بالحرب. لا مشكل بالسلاح، ولا مشكل بالصواريخ، ناخذ الصواريخ منكم جاهزة. ولا مشكل بالاستشهاد والانتحار، كفانا اغتيال وكفانا تخوين وكفانا تحقير، لا يا سيد ليس هذا من مقامك ان تطل علينا في كل لحظة بهذا الكلام البذيء، اترك الغير، الحائط وغير الحائط (...) من امثال الموسوي وغير الموسوي. كفانا حرب مفتوحة مع اسرائيل تحت شعارات زائفة خدمة لطموحات النظام السوري والامبراطورية الايرانية. كفانا مربعات امنية، كفانا رفضكم للعدالة. مفضوح رفضكم للعدالة".

Jumblatt also rejected Hizbullah’s “open war” against Israel under “fake slogans that serve the Syrian regime and the Iranian empire”.

Jumblatt’s speech is a departure from the Politics of Job that have plagued the March 14 movement since its birth in 2005. At the risk of reading too much into Jumblatt’s statement, there appears to be a growing belief that the crisis will not be resolved peacefully. Last week, Hariri declared that the movement is ready for “confrontation” with Iran, Syria and their allies if “dragged” into one.

Hariri and Jumblatt have been rallying their supporters to take part in a anti-Syrian demonstration in downtown Beirut on February 14th to commemorate the third anniversary of the Hariri assassination. Hariri has just announced that he will be donate some $52 million dollars to develop Tripoli, in an apparent bid to keep his large Sunni base in that city happy, and boost the number of participants.

On Saturday Arab League secretary-general Amr Moussa left Lebanon after failing to broker a settlement allowing the election of Michel Suleiman as president. Michel Aoun, who renewed his vows with Hassan Nasrallah last Wednesday on national television, refused to budge on the demand for veto power in the next government.  Nasrallah’s Christian cover reportedly bragged about the “opposition”'s ability for obstruction from outside the government, suggesting that the parliament majority should not be afraid to give them veto power inside the government, given their power to bring the country to a halt without being in the government. An-Nahar reported inconsistencies between Berri and Aoun. The former had proposed a 10-10-10 power sharing formula for the post-election cabinet, something that Aoun said he wasn’t aware of. When asked about the inconsistency, Aoun reportedly left his meeting with Moussa, Hariri and Gemayel to make a phone call. He returned with “yes, but only if there is prior agreement on the identity of the next prime minister and top security officials”.

With Aoun reducing himself into a Hizbullah tool, and the patriarch calling on the international community to intervene, March 14 finds itself before an opportunity to be more aggressive. They probably have all the international support they could ask for to embark on an aggressive approach. The Saudis have finally agreed to fund the Hariri tribunal, and have grown exasperated with the Assad regime after the sabotage of the Arab initiative. Even Sarkozy, who had tried what Barack Obama is now preaching, is calling for a unified European voice against the Assad regime’s obstruction of the Lebanese presidential election.  And now, Jumblatt and Hariri are, for the first time perhaps, putting a military conflict on the table.

There are those who could argue that another civil war is inevitable. Nothing else will stop the Hizbullah machine and the Assad regime agents. In their response to Jumblatt, Hizbullah described his statement as an “ant threatening a lion”. I highly doubt that Hizbullah’s opponents can be easily crushed, as the Hizbullah official seems to think. Hizbullah might have a temporary advantage should a war break out tomorrow, but it stands to lose a lot in the long run.

Regardless of what will happen, it’s about time someone on the March 14 side showed some muscle.   

Comments

[tg]

The should just have no elections. It seems clear 50+1 is never going to happen and the situation will remain deadlocked.

[Ralph]

BV said without the batting of an eyelid:
"Where were your incensed comments about violence and about civil war when Nassrallah was threatening to chop hands?"

The same can be said about you, smarty pants. I don't see any of the regulars here making the same incensed comments they make when Nasrallah or some other idiot threatens to chop off hands. Fact is, you are no different than the sheeple. Of course, you cannot see it, but when was the last time a sheeple walked up to you and said: Baaaaaa.

[marillionlb]

This ever escalating political speech by ALL serves one purpose and one only; giving credibility to Syria's claim that Lebanese cannot be left alone. Syria always claimed to be the sole protector of Lebanon and that it's physical present was the only guarantee for peace.
Like I said before M14 should flex their muscle (and like many others have said also)by ELECTING a president by 50+1, re-opening parliement...etc.

[Solomon2]

"I really don’t get Sfeir."

Lebanon is one of the last states where an organized Christian prelate wields temporal power. A stable democratic government, especially one that moves away from sectarianism, would only lessen Sfeir's influence.

For centuries the policy of the popes was to keep Italy divided so they could rule the Papal States. Only when the Enlightenment spread to Italy and fostered a unifying guerilla movement did the princes fall and the rule of the popes diminished to a single neighborhood. Why would Sfeir be any less eager to hang onto power than the Roman pontiffs of old?

[Ace]

The 50+1 option can never work without the nod from Sfeir and he hasn't given it because of his fear of a division in his Church. He still does not realize that the UN is not going to step in and release him from responsibility - he just wants the heat off his back.

We have all been crying for months for M14 to call Hezzi's bluff and it looks like they are making a start. It needs to be followed up by an even larger rally on March 14. I like the idea of adding more Christian Ministers to the cabinet and the resigned Shia Ministers should have been replaced after the first "postponed" election. With each and every "postponement" they should have done something - anything, to show some backbone.

For those who think the "opposition" will respond with a rally of their own - they would have already done this if they could. Aoun can't mobilize Christians anymore and they all know it. This is why they did the TV Love-in.

[Solomon2]

"he hasn't given it because of his fear of a division in his Church. "

What is this division, exactly?

[Andre]

Patriarch Sfeir is only interested in keeping the status quo in the current political system b/c it suits the maronites in the long term, however, this is no longer working. Things have changed and it is time to make a decisive move and elect a president by majority. This would be a good time to act as the oposition looks very vulnerable and does not really benefit of a strong popular support. Their failures to make good on their threats and misguided promises have fallen short. It's time for M14 to stand tall and exercise their majority by electing a new president NOW! If they do, the whole world will stand and applaud.

[Ex-Aounist]

50 + 1 and let the chips fall where they may...
It is long overdue and M14 after the coming rally should act and fast...and besides the anarchists of M8 did it to Sfeir, ( with his stupid List ) hence he can handle a second time...or is it 3rd ??? or Nth...
Who GIVES A damn F***G Sh8t about it ???
JUST DO IT ALREADY !

BTW,
As I have been reading the comments, I found out there are some "Egyptian Jabha and Anarchists bugs" in here .....AK you need PESTICIDE MAN !

[Super Dude]

If M14 for some reason uses the 50+1 option, who will they elect exactly?

[Bad Vilbel]

Ralph,

I have no idea what you're talking about. I have championed the use of law and order first and foremost for years now, on this blog and others. I have never once called for war, nor have I ever called for the severing of hands or anything else.

Either argue with me based on facts, and based on my past comments, or go away. But don't put words in my mouth that I never said.

[Bad Vilbel]

So, anyone else read Nasser Qandil's blabbering predictions this morning? I'd repeat them here, but it's just so damn inane I can't even bring myself to copy/paste. (It's on Naharnet, for those who care).

[Charlie]

Sol,

Your analogy of the Church during the middle ages and the games the Popes played is spot on. As a secularist, I can never see anything good coming out of mixing the "Church/mosque/synagogue...etc" and government.

As for Sfeir worried about his Church getting divided, well the unity of the Church should never be at the expense of the country. The M-14 leadership needs to make that clear to him.

[Bad Vilbel]

Well, it seems the "investigation" in last week's riot have yielded some results:

http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/Lebanon/24A7521A72CB9F17C22573ED00245A92?OpenDocument

Now, this may not be perfect, but at least the government can say they're applying the rule of law (kinda) to civilians and soldiers alike.

Can the opposition say the same thing?

[Solomon2]

"As for Sfeir worried about his Church getting divided, well the unity of the Church should never be at the expense of the country"

The Roman popes followed a specific policy: money first, then religion. That's because although Christianity could survive without money, the Church could not. "Unity" was strictly secondary.

Analogies can be pressed too far, yet is there something important going on under the table that we don't know about?

[Andre]

BV,

I don't know what Qandil is smoking but it must feel very good to be high at the moment for him!

[Tannourine Warrior]

Jeha,

Are they "Really" Lebanese - or rather puppets who strive to paint their "homeland" with the colour of their masters?

One thing I have learned in life, especially in regards to the twisted, Syrian manipulated poltics of our homeland, is that when you are locked in a room with a Lion, you must carry a gun! I do not necessarily advocate using the gun, but self-defence and protection of ones land is a natural rigt. This is very different from the argument Hizbollah uses to justify their posession of arms, as they point their Persian firecrackers towards the South.

Jeha, what are the options? Everything has been exhausted except for laying our heads down before the sword or standing firm in the face of threats & intimidation. Jumblatt, Hariri and Geagea know that all that's left is 50+1 and the threat of the sword.

Hizbollah without their firecrackers are nothing, 1 on 1 in a fair fight, they would capitulate and throw their heads into the sand like the weasels they are!

As for Qandil, the noose is being prepared and justice for the assinations is on the horizon.

[fubar]

Walid Jumblatt’s interview (courtesy of Naharnet)

9:07 Jumblat’s interview aired.

9:15 I tried with Rafik Hariri to work out a relation with Syrian President Bashar Assad but "we failed," Jumblat said.

9:20 Toppling any tyrant is necessary, Jumblat said.

9:21 Jumblat said Syrian intelligence Chief in Lebanon Rustom Ghazali had threatened to set Beirut on fire.

9:22 He said that if the Syrian Regime persisted nothing would prevent it from carrying out assassination assaults.

9:32 Jumblat called for “divorce” with Hizbullah.

9:33 It is impossible to coexist with a totalitarian party, Jumblat said in reference to Hizbullah.

9:35 Coexistance is a lie, Jumblat said.

9:40 I do not want to live according to their way of life, according to their terror, Jumblat said.

9:42 I don't want to live the rest of my life under a terrorist regime that believes only in death, Jumblat added.

9:45 I don't want Lebanon to follow Iran or to be a Syrian province, he added insisting that he reflects the concept of March 14.

9:46 Jumblat said Army Commander Gen. Michel Suleiman is a wise man.

9:50 Jumblat vowed: “I won't let them sweep me.”

9:55 Saudi Arabia is only interested in Lebanon's stability, Jumblat said.

9:57 Jumblat said they can carry out a car bomb any time, they can bring it out of the southern suburb or Naameh.

9:58 I don’t want war with Israel, I want armistice, they can keep their weapons and they can fight Israel for as long as they wish, provided we don't pay for it, Jumblat said.

10:00 Jumblat called for theoretical partitioning of services.

10:00 Jumblat said Nasrallah's way of life is different than ours. Let him live the way he wants and we want to live the way we want.

10:02 Jumblat said Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah “is not God.”

10:05 Jumblat said that we don't want Lebanon to be an arena for conflicts with Israel.

10:06 A legal state and an illegal state cannot coexist, Jumblat said.

10:07 Jumblat said instructions from Syria and Iran are to wipe out Lebanon.

10:08 Jumblat said an independent Lebanon does not exist in the perspective of Syria and Iran.

10:10 Jumblat said Hizbullah secluded Berri and appointed Aoun negotiator to prevent the speaker from opening parliament.

10:12 Jumblat said Feb. 14 is a test of to be or not to be.

10:12 Jumblat said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is “crazy and claims to be God.”

10:15 Jumblat said the conflict with the Assad Regime is related to existence.

10:15 Jumblat said Assad cannot tolerate the international tribunal, the regime would collapse if an assistant to Ghazali was implicated.

10:18 Jumblat said the international tribunal is a “political” court and not an animal protection court.

10:20 Russia's financial contribution to the international tribunal is a message to Bashar, Jumblat said.

10:20 Jumblat called for popular participation in the Feb. 14 memorial, stressing that “Bashar cannot assassinate all the Lebanese.”

10:22 Our march is long, but this is our destiny. No people on earth gained independence without major sacrifices, Jumblat said.

10:24 Jumblat concluded the interview by vowing vengeance for the Hariri murder.

[Joe]

Thank you Jumblatt and it's about f..king time. He couldn't be more clear than that. No more extending the other cheek to these persian and syrian traitors who want to impose their backward ways on the rest of us.

[Bad Vilbel]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, Joe.
Jumblatt has made similar comments before. As long as it's nothing but talk, followed 2 days later by "let's meet with the opposition and negotiate again." it doesn't do anyone any good.
Having said that, there are a lot of excellent points in Jumblatt's words there, peppered with the occasional typical Jumblatt comedic rantings (like that thing about Ahmadinejad).
Nevertheless, he does express views that I relate to almost to a tee.

[JoseyWales]

Well Joumblatt finally said the obvious today:

No common ground with Hezbo, let's have a friendly divorce.(Naharnet and Orient and elsewhere)

This discussion is long long long overdue.

[Charlie]

Love the hype and hot rhetoric from Jumblat and Hariri, but it is all talk till we see some real action. Let’s see what they deliver after the big photo-op.

[Solomon2]

Brilliant. If two weeks ago somebody had blown Jummie up Lebanon would shrivel in despair. Now if somebody kills Jummie - no matter who it appears does the deed - Lebanon will explode in anger. Since Hezbo is not yet prepared for that I repeat my assertion that Jumblatt is now immune from assassination.

See what "hype and hot rhetoric" can do, even without "real action"?

[Charlie]

Sol,

even without the hype, blowing Jummie up will result in an explosive wave of anger..
All you have to do is see how the mountain dealt with the assasination of his father. The same goes for Hariri, I assure you..

[fubar]

Speaking of explosions...

(Ya Libnan) Beirut / Damascus - An explosion rocked the Kferssouseh neighborhood in Damascus - near the Iranian school Tuesday evening.

One person was killed as a result of the explosion.

No one declared responsibility.

The news about an explosion in Syria came as a big shock to many people in Lebanon. All the explosions for the past 3 years occurred in Lebanon and Syria was blamed for all of them.

[marillionlb]

"Bil rouh bil damm nifdik ya Jumblatt". Youppppppppie, the other lunatic has spoken once more. Although Jumblatt speaks what many Lebanese feel and think (me included, and althoug he did say that he will not participate in negociations (neither whith Amr Moussa and especially not Hassaounti)I am willing to bet all on him changing his speech soon.
Once again, at the risk of sounding like a broken record; do not pin your hopes on anay of them. ELECT a president 50+1, replace the (so called) resigned shia ministers (by non turban wearing ones), re-open the majliss, kick the Iztaz out and PISS on them all!!!!!
I am sick with all our politicians who have nothing better to do than to go on TV and utter Bullshit.

[theCourtFool]

Wow... that was insightful.

Thanks for the executive summary of the interview Tannourine Warrior.