While I'm away

I haven't been able to post much, mostly because I am out of the country on a business trip. Putting food on the table takes priority over blogging about body parts Nasrallah allegedly has in his freezer. I am still around, reading the news, and will not give up blogging about an unchanging situation. It will just have to be later, and not now. In Lebanon, as you know, there is never much progress, so the concept of timeliness sometimes matters less.

Thank you for understanding. Don't give up, despite the temptation to do so.

Comments

[Nicolas]

In my personal opinion. I believe the syrians are using the same strategy they used in 1982 in Lebanon. At that time, after their defeit by the IDF and the strong involvment of the Reagan administration. They used a strategy to gain time and momentum will they pushed the situation in their favor again. They awaited the death of Brignev and the appointment of Andropov ( ex KGB boss ) who ordered the assassinnation of Leb president Bechir , blowing up of US embassy and CIA middle east head quarters, US marines, french paratroopers...at the end everybody left Lebanon and they got again on top of the game....
Now , It is same game again, they got kicked out in 2005. nothing was in their favor at that time. now , they are playing the time game till all the arabs, US, european get bored of the lebanese situation and the syrians will have Lebanon for themselve alone again........
unfortunately history keep repeating itself; but the lebanese never learn any lesson..........

[LebExile]

The Syrians are playing the time game, but unfortunately for them, time is not in their favor.

Not only are the Arab states not budging, their alliance with the Iranians is more worrisome to them as a whole.

In addition to that, the international tribunal is a domicles sword swinging over their heads, they keep making irrational decisions which further isolate them..

Hezb in Lebanon is not only much weaker ... where only a couple of years ago no one would question their patriotism, their weapons were never up for negotiation, leadership was strong and totally in control... now, you have a power struggle between Qassam and Hass, on top of that, you have several new shia factions declaring their opposition to Hezz, as well as prominant shia such as Kamal al Assad publically blasting them for their treachery etc..

these are volatile times and I cant say that the march 14 group are doing the best job, however considering what they have had to go through in the last 2.5 years, you would think they are doing a magnificent job..

As for the argument of majority/minority... I think that everyone knows that majority rules... that is why after Hariri was assasinated, and the people took to the streets. Karami resigned within a week whereas the hezb has had tents set up in downtown for over a year now demanding the resignation of Senioura, and they have been able to achieve nothing...

as far as I can see, to participate in middle eastern politics, you need a heart of stone and nerves of steel... in that department, I think Senioura has the nerves of steel however he lacks the heart of stone!!!

sorry for the rambling on, its just that there has been so little news on Lebanon lately, and I'm suffering withdrawal symptoms!

[Jeha]

Time is nobody's favour, and the Syrians know it. However, they appear to think that, in relative terms, them and their allies will emerge comparatively better off than their opponents.

Their opponents are making the same mistake, as demonstrated by M14's constant procrastination.

[danny]

Jeha,

I said this before...March 14 & 8 have a convergence of interests in keeping the status quo at this point in time.
March 14: because IT is not up and running...They'd rather have Saniora government moving the suspect out and done with! I have a sneaky suspicion this is the same case with March 8.
March 8: They don't want anything to do with IT. They owe their masters that much. Also, it gives HA time to try to consolidate its mini state.
Syria: A lost case. Nothing short of Lebanon's handover will satisfy Asaf shawkat. They can play any waiting game they want! They'd rather burn Lebanon
Iran: They will not tolerate the destruction...HA will be destroyed along with it along with their trump card in the region.
We'll wait!! Every week they wait for another "event"...Now it the AL FM's...

[Andre]

danny wrote:

"Also, it gives HA time to try to consolidate its mini state."

They have been consolidating for years and that's why we are in this mess. They are not accountable to anyone in Lebanon except of course the mullahs in Iran and the thugs next door who do not care the least about the interests of the country.

[Bad Vilbel]

Well, let the rioting commence...

[danny]

Andre,

You are partially correct. HA has been totally free of Syrian pressure in the past year alone. Under Syriam occupation they did not all the latitude that they are enjoying currently...Anyways we're splitting hairs!!

[Andre]

BV,

Not much rioting...but a lot of noise about it. I think that this time around things were held in check because the security forces and army were anticipating it and took the necessary steps to keep things under control. Of course, things could still get out of hand if the intention is to let all hell break lose everywhere and at the same time.

[marillionlb]

A lot of noise and not much rioting and things are in check. Why?
Did M8 lose stamina, or did they suddenly became fearsome of M14?
Why is it that today's demos were toned down in comparison (no apparent Hizbo or Orange in numbers)?
Why is it that the army (for the past week) has decided to finally intervene?
I challenge all those who participate in such debates to actually tell me (in a logical manner) that if Michel Suleiman was not aiming at the presidential seat; events wouldn't have taken a turn for the worst.
The "monkiz" is not acting out of a deep sens of patriotism; but out of (and for now I will settle) misplaced belief that he is the "monkiz".
All those "so called syndicates" (using teen-agers) were barking up the wrong tree (burning tires in order to keep warm?). Who is responsible for most of the hardship we are encountering today (WE meaning the working people)? The responsible are those who are organizing such useless demos, knowing that they can no longer get away with chaos; but still testing.
If the day comes (and I hope not) Michel Suleiman will be APPOINTED president; Lebanon will perish.

[Bad Vilbel]

not sure why you're barking at us, Marillion. I think most of us are saying the same thing as you.

As for who is responsible for the dire economy...Well, that one's my favorite: How is it that the Lebanese people don't see that the PRIMARY cause for economic hardship is the fact that some start destructive wars, block government, shutdown the downtown of Beirut, and organize demos rather than turning their energies towards productive lives? You and I see it clear as day. But how is it that a good chunk of the Lebanese people do not see this? How dumb are the Lebanese people exactly?

[Andre]

I find it hard to believe that Suleiman would actually let things deteriorate if he was not a presidential candidate. However I do see your point, that being in the limelight and wanting to prove his mettle, he is actually rushing to show that he is in control and "can" prevent the country from falling into chaos. The problem is that if the trouble makers decide to push and test the army, then I wonder if he will have the nerve to act with determination and force. The lebanese army has always been at its worst when faced with having to take sides in a divided political and sectarian environment...not sure that he would react as we would like him to do in that respect. Perhaps by being proactive and working hard to prevent an opportunity for things to get worse he is acting in the best interests of the army to keep it in control of the situation and away from the political divide.

[marillionlb]

Sorry BV for the barking it was basically me venting my frustration.
As for Suleiman, my own interpretation is that he is Syria's man and it is on Syria's order that yellow and orange have not taken to the streets yet, the Syrians are playing the waiting game which they do best.
Andre, Suleiman did leave things to deteriorate more than once before, moreover the army did entertain some very unorthodoxe practices under his command in the very recent past.
Since it has now become illigal to occupy public property and blockade roads, I dare Suleiman to show me his true colors and bulldoz tent city (along with the people in it). That might actually help our economy a bit.

[Ray]

Marillion- what is it that makes you think suleiman is Syria's man? I'm not disagreeing as i don't know enough to do so but from what i read and hear he appears to be the only one maintaining his detachment to either side.

I completely agree- if these protests have not been heavy handed to date it's because of a Syrian decision and nothing else- they will continue to ramp up the pressure and we should all hope the army can continue to carry out its duties while maintaining its neutrality.

[marillionlb]

Ray,
Suleiman was appointed to his post (and very important post indeed) by the Syrian puppet par excellence Mr. emile Lahoud.
During his command the army not only did not protect public property and enforce the rule of law, but engaged in acts of oppression in some cases.
During Nahr Al Bared he was very quick to dismiss any Syrian involvment, and to claim out loud that Syria was helping the Lebanese army.
I also wonder as to how some of the fighters managed toescape back to Syria.
As far as I am concerned Emile Lahoud and Michel Suleiman had (and still have the same master). Also remember that when The Batrak (in his infinite wisdom) put a list of probable candidates all were rejected by M8 and they are the ones who put forward Suleiman's candidacy.
For me that should be more than enough reasons not to believe in Suleiman's new found patriotism.
I was, am and always will be against any army man taking the post of the presidency, the same way I was, I am, and always will be against the APPOINTNMENT and not the ELECTION of a new president.

[fubar]

Car bomb explosion in Chevrolet neighborhood northeast of Beirut. At least 4 killed, including ISF Capt. Wissam Eid who was on his way back from a meeting relating to the Hariri murder. Others wounded. More info at Naharnet.

[fubar]

"Eid was a key member of the ISF and was involved in many investigations concerning bombings in Lebanon, including a February 2007 bombing in a Christian area. He was involved in sensitive probes and this is a major loss for us," a senior security official told AFP.

[Fawzan]

Well it happened. on the 22nd I wrote in the previous post:

[Guys, while we quibble about Fairuz, I am worried about a gift box that Amr was supposed to receive but didn't when he was in Beirut. Does it go to waste? Or will it be given to someone else?

There is a fuzzy logic to this process, but I feel that another assassination is not too far off.

The bully's Logic:

a)Any time the small kids begin to lose fear and form a consensus, case fear to divide them.
b)Any time the small kids get upset and begin to form a group to react, case fear to divide them.

a) applies to the Lebanese / b) applies to the Arab League.

If there is an assassination soon, it will cause the Arabs to settle down and not confront Syria because they don't have the stomach to see the next step. They are more than willing to bark when they don't see a consequence, but in the face of a determined bully, they back off!"

Posted by: Fawzan | Tuesday, January 22, 2008 at 10:03 PM ]

This is getting too silly. If a guy sitting in Toronto can predict when a bombing is going to take place, it becomes too much. A message to the ISF or not, I am sure this is the same bomb that did not make it's way to Amr Mousa last week.

[ramzi]

fyi

قائد الجيش اتصل بالرئيس الاسد والقيادة العسكرية السورية والتقى خوري واكد "استمرار التواصل الاخوي والتنسيق بين البلدين والجيشين الشقيقين"

[Solomon2]

In Lebanon, you never know for sure who is a patriot until they get assassinated. This was one captain who wasn't accepting compromise. Do you think his superiors will appoint someone of equal merit to his post?