Something is cooking or same old failure?

Amr Moussa was last seen flying his Damascus woven carpet, looking for that magical solution to end Lebanon’s woes. “Moussa is trying to invent new idea to repair internal Lebanese relations”, headlined al-Hayat. Moussa’s mission was made impossible last week by Syria’s allies in the country, with their varying and contradictory formulas for the future government’s makeup. The Arab League secretary-general, who boasted of Syrian cooperation, found himself trying to reason with the Lebanese political equivalent of a never-ending soap opera: a bratty and self-obsessed bunch of power hungry maniacs who sold their country for a handful of weapons and illusions of grandeur.

Moussa’s magical solution so far seems to consist of dialogue revival. According to al-Hayat, Nabih Berri (who, surprise surprise, came up with the idea) had the audacity to tell Moussa that his presence was not enough to relaunch “dialogue”. Berri wants Arab foreign ministers, including Syria’s, to come to Beirut or else “inter Lebanese dialogue is absolutely impossible”. In other words, bring Syria back through the Arab league and give it the role of referee in its own game. The speaker, who like Hizbullah, was marketing a formula of 10-10-10 for the post-election cabinet, is also saying that dialogue is not possible without a meeting between Hariri and Aoun to precede a wider dialogue. Berri was quoted by al-Hayat as saying that such a meeting, even if unsuccessful, will force March 14 to acknowledge Aoun’s alleged political weight in the Christian street.

Mind you Aoun has his own conditions for dialogue, and formula for the cabinet, which is at odds with his allies’. He wants Suleiman Franhjieh to attend, and 11 ministers for the opposition. Meanwhile Hizbullah wants former prime minister Omar Karami to be included in the talks. 

This absurd situation yet again shows the world that Syrian regime has delegated obstruction to its allies. Moussa, by seeking to revive dialogue, has subscribed to the Syrian notion that it’s an internal Lebanese matter. Even Mubarak, who is supposedly pressuring the Assad regime, warned that Arabs will wash their hands of Lebanon if the Arab plan is not implemented. Mubarak made no similar public threats to the Assad regime following their terrorist attacks on Lebanon.

This begs the question, how do you implement a plan that calls for an immediate election of the president by engaging in time buying in the form of dialogue revival?

I may not be privy to what’s happening behind closed doors, and to the so called “pressure” that Arab leaders are allegedly putting on the Assad regime. But it does seem like this Arab effort to elect a Lebanese president is quickly turning into another exercise in futility. When Mubarak and his other friends don’t have the balls to name the real obstructionists, we can rest assured that they will do nothing useful.

Comments

[Abilama]

Amr Moussa is a useless tothless bulldog. Only good in making anti Israel declarations (costs cheap) No one in Syria or in Lebanon or elswhere in the Arab countries takes him, or the Arab League seriously. Syria easily spuns a yarn around him. There is no fool like an old fool!!!

"I'm not desperate. To the contrary, I see an opportunity and my discussions will necessarily lead to something (positive)," Moussa told reporters on the second day of talks in Beirut to push through so called Arab plan to end the deadlock.

[Jeha]

It looks like not everyone is happy with the lack of progress;

For one, the Syrians are not too happy, and have activated some rioters on some imagined bread price increase. In the defence of the rioters, while the price of bread has not increased, the weight of the "rabta" has been decreasing steadily. But the fact that the riot was not given official cover by the gang of usual suspects highlights the growing weakness of the Syrian-backed "opposition".

For another, the absence of progress suits all the Arab "leaders". While they all despise Bachar, none is really willing to back a tribunal who will ultimately judge one of their own, another fellow, unelected dictator.

So, in the meantime, none of the players is willing to commit to anything final till the outcome of the US election is made clear, as it will show them the "style" of the coming administration. They are all hoping for an outcome that suits their own little agenda, a typical zero-sum calculation.

[danny]

AK,,

I along with others stressed on this post that nothing will ever come out of AL...It was a futile attempt by bankrupt Arab regimes to appease themselves. Nobody gives a rat's ass about Lebanon except Syria of course; it wants it back!
As for Orangebutt, he knows the futility of his situation; that he'll never be able to be elected president even with a newly elected parliament. Remember their insistance of 2/3 quorum! He again wants the president to be elected by people...He's "safeguarding Christisns rights he says, although I have not heard any reliquishing of their voices to the Village Idiot by the Orthodox, Armenian and other Christian communities. Also, we know from Metn what %age of Maronites support him!!

50+1 or there will be NO Lebanon!! New parliamentary or Presidential elections will not change Syria's mind about Lebanon.

[Fawzan]

Folks I just got information that may bring this whole picture in fuller focus:

The trip that Bush is undertaking now has a specific unstated goal to facilitate third party activity and to manage the consequences of such activity to the gulf states.

The goal on the one side was to close the book on the Lebanese issue before the activity takes place, thus limiting the actions that can take place as a consequence. That has been shelved now. Calculations are in place to absorb what can come from Syria and Lebanon.

That does not mean that there is a clear picture of how to deal with the repercussions ON Lebanon. It only means that the actors in the plan know how to deal with repercussions coming FROM Lebanon.

My source - highly placed and would be prevy to this info. - still does not know a lot of the details and a lot of them are contingent on factors that are being addressed now in the Gulf.
Hint of Hints: Who is travelling with Bush besides the big names? (I don't know yet. I couldn't find out. I was told to find out and keep an eye on them and where they go.)

[Bad Vilbel]

Uhm. nothing to see here, folks. Move along. More of the same.
I hate to say this, AK, because your blog is always of interest, but lately, there's really not much worth blogging about. It's all more of the same.

As for Fawzan's comments...Well....You just filled out a quarter page without saying anything. Have you been hanging out with Amr Moussa?

[Fawzan]

I beg to differ BV. I have said a lot if you stop and think. I know we are used to being spoon fed info. try to pick up the fork BV.

[danny]

Fawzan,

Are you OK?? you sound so middle eastern consipiracy theorist type..hmmm...What really did you say? Really??

[Fawzan]

OK. Let me spell it out as clearly as I can without adding to the Tabkha. I was told that the US is in the final stages of planning a major strike against Iran. This will involve the US and Israel along with US and Allied assets in basis in the Gulf.

The idea was to tidy up Lebanon/Gaza before this took place, but that idea has been scrapped and they will deal with the consequences that come from Lebanon later. Kapish?

No conspiracy no baloney. After he told me that, I started looking at the headlines and then at the situation in Lebanon and it all makes sense. Anyway, wait a couple of weeks and then call me a lier I guess.

[Andre]

The problem with the arab league is that it can't come out publicly and and criticize one of its own, yet the disagreements and bickerings are simmering under the surface and everyone can tell. That is one of the major fallacy of the arab league itself...too much hypocrisy...look good to the world despite the contempt and problems that exist...since they can't be resolved, let's just pretend that "everyone is in agreement" type of attitude. Amr Moussa's mission is already doomed to failure and yet he continues to promote the perception that things are going to be OK even though reality and experience says just the opposite is true. By now, we should all be just fed up with him and his services since nothing is going to come out of it anyway.

[Super Dude]

No offense Fawzan, but you sound like Berri :D

[Bad Vilbel]

A strike on Iran has ALWAYS been in the cards, this isn't anything new, Fawzan.

But to think that the US could pull it off, in an election year? When public opinion is at an all time low about Iraq? Not bloody likely.

[Andre]

Fawzan,

Your scenario could come true if McCain wins the election come November. This guy is very much aligned on Bush's policies and has a very critical view of Iran's role...I think that if he is elected and Iraq is stable enough, that he will put the heat on Iran like the US has never done so before. This could shake things up in the region but it could also blow up in our faces. Lebanon will suffer some major consequences as they fight back.

[danny]

I hope McCain or Giuliani win. It seems USA is still not ready for a female or black prez...
In any scenario Lebanon will lose. If Iran is hit and HA reacts by bombing Israel, that's when Syria will be put to the test: Either control HA or a regime change will definitely happen. As for HA: Good riddence. that will be the biginning of the end. Unfortunately Lebanon will be mired in a civil war that will last along time unless as I said Syria tows the line and Israel pummels HA without stop. Anyway, this is a unique topic worth discussing separately.

[jay]

For those of you anticipating fundamental change in US policies based on the outcome of the upcoming US presidential elections I have a simple question for you. Since when did the US ME policies change after the election of a new president, irrespective of a change even in the ruling party?

Election speechs are nothing except to solicit votes, but the established long-term strategic doctrine remains the same. A mere 4-year term president can't do much. All US presidents tend to stay the course - which is what's best for the US interests and its 'allies'.

[Bad Vilbel]

Jay is correct.

[marillionlb]

Arab league????? Doesn't the name alone signifies failure? A bunch of ruling dictators, criminals and crooks have in their hands the power to resolve any crisis within the Middle East, what a joke. NOTHING will come out of the AL, the stalmate will remain even after March (like some are predicting). The only salvation for Lebanon is in the handsof the Lebanese people and not with a bunch of monkeys in suits called AL. It is about time that we react, DEMAND THE ELECTION (AND NOT APPOINTMENT) OF A PRESIDENT, THE REMOUVAL OF TENT CITY, THE DISSARMEMENT OF HIZBALLAH, and for my own pleasure the public flogging of AL IZTAZ, and the exile to Syria of the DEMENTED GENERAL.
"La ghaleb wa la maghloub" will not work, one side should win and rule, I am willing to take that chance even against the Hizb. If ever a compromise is reached it will surely be at the expense of the Cedar Revolution (M14 are nothing but a bunch of useless has been ex warloard/fils a papa.... with no balls)and trust me when I say the solution then will only be temporary. Eradicated this evil that is killing our country NOW. DOWN with HEZB, FPM,MARADA, KAWMI....etc. I for one am fed up with all this waiting.

[Andre]

How funny is this? Moussa is now enamored with the idea of getting both Aoun and Hariri together to try and patch things up despite the fact that these two have already met in a much publicized affair a few months ago outside of Lebanon and not much has come out of it. Moussa wants to fool himself into believing that such a meeting will bring good will and help resolve the "difficult" issues. Well I have some news for him: The only way that anything meaningful is going to come out of said meeting, is if Aoun and Hariri strike a deal whereby the first is elected president and the second becomes PM. If that can be worked out, it may be worth something, otherwise, don't bother...prepare your report to the lethargic AL and in it there should be one word to explain your failure: "Syria".

[Solomon2]

Moussa, by seeking to revive dialogue, has subscribed to the Syrian notion that it’s an internal Lebanese matter...it does seem like this Arab effort to elect a Lebanese president is quickly turning into another exercise in futility.

It certainly appears that Lebanese are happy with the current situation. Wouldn't they be on the streets demonstrating en masse otherwise?