From Beirut to the Beltway

Something is cooking or same old failure?

Amr Moussa was last seen flying his Damascus woven carpet, looking for that magical solution to end Lebanon’s woes. “Moussa is trying to invent new idea to repair internal Lebanese relations”, headlined al-Hayat. Moussa’s mission was made impossible last week by Syria’s allies in the country, with their varying and contradictory formulas for the future government’s makeup. The Arab League secretary-general, who boasted of Syrian cooperation, found himself trying to reason with the Lebanese political equivalent of a never-ending soap opera: a bratty and self-obsessed bunch of power hungry maniacs who sold their country for a handful of weapons and illusions of grandeur.

Moussa’s magical solution so far seems to consist of dialogue revival. According to al-Hayat, Nabih Berri (who, surprise surprise, came up with the idea) had the audacity to tell Moussa that his presence was not enough to relaunch “dialogue”. Berri wants Arab foreign ministers, including Syria’s, to come to Beirut or else “inter Lebanese dialogue is absolutely impossible”. In other words, bring Syria back through the Arab league and give it the role of referee in its own game. The speaker, who like Hizbullah, was marketing a formula of 10-10-10 for the post-election cabinet, is also saying that dialogue is not possible without a meeting between Hariri and Aoun to precede a wider dialogue. Berri was quoted by al-Hayat as saying that such a meeting, even if unsuccessful, will force March 14 to acknowledge Aoun’s alleged political weight in the Christian street.

Mind you Aoun has his own conditions for dialogue, and formula for the cabinet, which is at odds with his allies’. He wants Suleiman Franhjieh to attend, and 11 ministers for the opposition. Meanwhile Hizbullah wants former prime minister Omar Karami to be included in the talks. 

This absurd situation yet again shows the world that Syrian regime has delegated obstruction to its allies. Moussa, by seeking to revive dialogue, has subscribed to the Syrian notion that it’s an internal Lebanese matter. Even Mubarak, who is supposedly pressuring the Assad regime, warned that Arabs will wash their hands of Lebanon if the Arab plan is not implemented. Mubarak made no similar public threats to the Assad regime following their terrorist attacks on Lebanon.

This begs the question, how do you implement a plan that calls for an immediate election of the president by engaging in time buying in the form of dialogue revival?

I may not be privy to what’s happening behind closed doors, and to the so called “pressure” that Arab leaders are allegedly putting on the Assad regime. But it does seem like this Arab effort to elect a Lebanese president is quickly turning into another exercise in futility. When Mubarak and his other friends don’t have the balls to name the real obstructionists, we can rest assured that they will do nothing useful.

UNIFIL troops targeted again in southern Lebanon

A roadside bomb exploded today in Rmaileh in southern Lebanon, wounding two UNIFIL soldiers from the Irish contingent. The attack comes hours after Israel claimed two rockets were fired from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. More later.

Finkelstein: Hizbullah represents hope

Norman Finkelstein has stumbled upon hope in southern Lebanon.

An outspoken American critic of Israel has met with Hizbullah's commander in south Lebanon, Nabil Kaouq, and visited villages that witnessed heavy fighting in the 2006 war between Hizbullah fighters and the Jewish state... "After the horror and after the shame and after the anger there still remain a hope, and I know that I can get in a lot of trouble for what I am about to say, but I think that the Hizbullah represents the hope. They are fighting to defend their homeland," the Brooklyn-born Finkelstein told reporters.

Finkelstein will next visit Palestinian refugee camps and give lectures to Lebanese youths, presumably about how foreign funded Islamist militias spread hope in the lands they illegally occupy. For someone who spent his career criticizing the "holocaust industry", it's remarkable how he missed the martyrdom industry, and the dictators who kill young men and women seeking freedom from persecution and occupation.   

Arab League calls for immediate election of army general

The Arab League's 22 member states have agreed that the Lebanese president should be elected immediately, and have secured Syria's endorsement, says Amr Moussa, the league's secretary general. The 3-stage Arab League backed plan consists of 3 actions, two immediate:

1-    Call for immediate election of Army General Michel Suleiman as Lebanese president
2-    Call for immediate agreement on a national unity government, to be formed according to constitutional norms, and constructed in such a way that neither faction would have the right to impose policies on the other side. The president would be accorded power (enough seats) to have the final say
3-    Adoption of a new electoral law

March 14 leaders are beginning to hail the announcement as "historic", amid news report that Saudi Arabia threatened to boycott the Arab summit in Damascus in March if the regime continued to block the election.
Even Berri felt he could welcome the plan and the Arab League's intervention.

Now the plan does give the opposition what it asked for, prior agreement on a national unity government. However, it does not give the opposition veto power, and it preserves the president's constitutional right to hold parliamentary consultations to form the cabinet. Under the plan, Suleiman gets more power and votes than the constitution gives him. This is something March 14 had proposed as a compromise, and that they might regret in the future.

But the devil is in the details. Syria can say it backs this plan, but we're still stuck as to how the election will be carried out. The opposition does not recognize the constitutionality of the Lebanese cabinet, which has forwarded a proposal to amend the constitution, enabling the election of the army general. Hizbullah's media machine has been portraying the prime minister as an American agent. Nasrallah in his latest media outing gave Siniora 10 days before an anti-government plan is implemented, a plan that reportedly does not have the approval of his buddies in the opposition. 

With the exception of Berri, Syria's allies have been slow to react, a sign that things have not changed. Recently, some have been calling for a new country, others engaging in Saudi bashing, and Hizbullah criminalizing the government. We are not to be fooled by Syria's alleged backing. They have backed many plans before, and given many promises, but nothing ever materialized. What matters to them, and to Hizbullah, transcends the election of a president: the fate of many past cabinet resolutions, and the course of future ones. Namely, anything and everything related to the Hariri tribunal and Hizbullah's weapons.

The return of Fatah al-Islam

While the "opposition" is reportedly cooking "civil disobedience" and considering more foreign-directed occupations, it looks like the Assad regime is reactivating its flagship extremist movement, Fatah al-Islam.

The terrorist organization Fatah al-Islam claimed responsibility for Monday’s explosions at the Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in South Lebanon.

The organization said in a press communiqué that its militants succeeded in targeting “atheists” and “apostates” at the camp “who are disfiguring the image of our militants who sought refuge at Ain al-Hilweh because of the Lebanese army’s barbarous attack at Nahr al-Bared under the orders of the atheist crusaders,” the statement said.

“We still have the will and the strength to retaliate to atheists, apostates and crusaders, and to drive them out of Ain al-Hilweh,” the statement added.

Fatah al-Islam fought a deadly 15-week battle this summer with the Lebanese army at the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian camp in North Lebanon. Nobody was killed or injured in Monday’s explosions. (Now Lebanon)

This morning, the body of Jund al-Sham leader Saleh Abdallah was found in a vegetable market in the camp. It looks like someone has grand designs for the camp, and for the Lebanese army ahead of the planned "opposition" action.