The Arab League's 22 member states have agreed that the Lebanese president should be elected immediately, and have secured Syria's endorsement, says Amr Moussa, the league's secretary general. The 3-stage Arab League backed plan consists of 3 actions, two immediate:
1- Call for immediate election of Army General Michel Suleiman as Lebanese president
2- Call for immediate agreement on a national unity government, to be formed according to constitutional norms, and constructed in such a way that neither faction would have the right to impose policies on the other side. The president would be accorded power (enough seats) to have the final say
3- Adoption of a new electoral law
March 14 leaders are beginning to hail the announcement as "historic", amid news report that Saudi Arabia threatened to boycott the Arab summit in Damascus in March if the regime continued to block the election.
Even Berri felt he could welcome the plan and the Arab League's intervention.
Now the plan does give the opposition what it asked for, prior agreement on a national unity government. However, it does not give the opposition veto power, and it preserves the president's constitutional right to hold parliamentary consultations to form the cabinet. Under the plan, Suleiman gets more power and votes than the constitution gives him. This is something March 14 had proposed as a compromise, and that they might regret in the future.
But the devil is in the details. Syria can say it backs this plan, but we're still stuck as to how the election will be carried out. The opposition does not recognize the constitutionality of the Lebanese cabinet, which has forwarded a proposal to amend the constitution, enabling the election of the army general. Hizbullah's media machine has been portraying the prime minister as an American agent. Nasrallah in his latest media outing gave Siniora 10 days before an anti-government plan is implemented, a plan that reportedly does not have the approval of his buddies in the opposition.
With the exception of Berri, Syria's allies have been slow to react, a sign that things have not changed. Recently, some have been calling for a new country, others engaging in Saudi bashing, and Hizbullah criminalizing the government. We are not to be fooled by Syria's alleged backing. They have backed many plans before, and given many promises, but nothing ever materialized. What matters to them, and to Hizbullah, transcends the election of a president: the fate of many past cabinet resolutions, and the course of future ones. Namely, anything and everything related to the Hariri tribunal and Hizbullah's weapons.
Great analysis AK. Syria would say we agreed, however it is a Lebanese internal matter...and they torpedo it again. IT is the main issue again. I wander if March 14 has a committment from Sleiman to respect IT decisions taken by the government?? I remember Geagea saying a few weeks ago, that nothing stops a new cabinet from reviewing the current decisions. As far as what March 8 blabbers about re: consitutionality or legality of government...it does not hold water. It is useless political rhetoric.
Stumbling bloc: IT....
Posted by: danny | Sunday, January 06, 2008 at 11:24 AM
Since when do the Arab Foreign ministers solve problems or have binding declarations? Ha!
You are all forgetting that there is also Iran in the game, and I didn't see any OK from them on the Arab declaration. Until that happens, ma-fi-7all.
Also I totally agree, no one said anything about the constitutional process to elect Slyman. The Government and its roll is a key issue and it has not been solved.
Ergo: Ma-fi-7all.
Folks we are in the middle of a very civil war. Except for guns blazing, which thankfully is not the case, the war has been raging since Hariri was killed in 2005.
Ma-fi-7all
Posted by: Fawzan | Sunday, January 06, 2008 at 11:57 AM
Another travesty of the political process for the republic. Of course, thats nothing new.
Failure of this plan would be much more honorable.
Posted by: Super Dude | Sunday, January 06, 2008 at 01:25 PM
Fawzan is 100% correct. The last Israeli Hizb. war was in reality a part of this Lebanese civil war. Israel was just a tool. Hizb. Iran Syria won, every body else in Lebanon lost. The war still goes on. How true how sad.
Posted by: Hazbani | Sunday, January 06, 2008 at 01:52 PM
The words "Arab", "Moussa" and "solution" don't belong on the same page.
Answer the following and win the jackpot: what has the Arab League solved in its 60-year existence?
Posted by: Joseywales | Sunday, January 06, 2008 at 02:14 PM
There's no way what so ever, they are going to agree on a "new electoral law". Not in a million years.
This is the source of Lebanese struggle (sharing of executive powers), and HZB is going to give the fight of all fights.
Sorry for being pessimistic; the presidential elections are a prelude, and a kinder-garden play comparing to what the electoral law, is going to be. And it's not so far away; it's just around the corner, 2009.
Don't be fooled by the relative (or maybe absolute) quiet on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Just like wise planners, HZB is focused now, and for the near future, on the internal front, because it doesn't want to be caught fighting on 2 fronts.
It's a mistake to involve the Arab league in this internal issue of the electoral law. This only broadens the debate, and makes it more unresolvable.
.
Posted by: Amir in Tel Aviv | Sunday, January 06, 2008 at 03:09 PM
More futile exercises in masturbation...great.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Sunday, January 06, 2008 at 05:13 PM
I agree with you guys. Syria did commit many times previously to many agreements. They are very good in that. And for sure they willl instrcut their guys in Lebanon to do other wise.
And frankly, Mr. "Divine Victory" (A.K.A Hassouna) did warn the gov't few days ago that in 10 days he will do something. You cannot expect him to change his word. He is a man of honor (Iranian honor!)
I do not think that HizIran and Orangutan will agree. Their candidate for the presidential seat is the vacuum. HizbIran is allergic to a strong government in Lebanon. Because a strong government will be asking them about their weapons and the future of their weapons. Orangutan cannot accept any body but him to be the president regardless of the price. I will be really surprised to see March 8 accepting the agreement/proposal.
Posted by: LebanesePatriot | Sunday, January 06, 2008 at 06:38 PM
The Arab League is here to save the day! Now that is a joke of an organization, the only thing these screw ups can decide on is the dinner menu and the escort services.
Here is one thing the Arab League can do to help Lebanese sovereignty: Issue a binding resolution that requires all member state to have full diplomatic representation with each other, thus forcing Syria to accept once and for all Lebanon as an independent country and place an ambassador in Beirut.
Posted by: Charlie | Sunday, January 06, 2008 at 08:51 PM
I don't know. Iran does not want bad relations with the rest of the AL and Syria can't afford them. It could be that Iran/Syria/Hezbollah will all sit back and let Aoun be the "fall guy" - he makes such a Perfect Pasty! That way they can all continue to drag this out as long as possible. On the other hand - the 'opposition' has to see at this point that they have no real out unless they want to go to war against Lebanon .. and that is not even an answer. They may try to work with this - especially if Iran is on board for it. They really call the shots and we all know it.
Posted by: Ace | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 01:08 AM
The thing may have a better chance than previous attempts (i.e. 3%).
Perhaps cuz the pressure (??) has mounted on Syria and ALL the local buffoons are starting to feel that the country is realizing that they, and the frigging institutions they head, are dispensable.
Posted by: JoseyWales | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 07:40 AM
Pressure is about to be mounted...After Bush's visit we might see UN/EU/Arab sanctions against Syria. Aoun and Berri might see their (and their friends') fotunes frozen in Paris and Michigan...
But call me a realist. I do not think this will amount to anything! As I said in first post, Syrians will say this is a Lebanese matter and voila...
I noticed one thing though, Manar had been attacking seniora on their web site for days...It has disappeared...???
Posted by: danny | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 08:16 AM
The arabs can't agree on anything of substance and we all know it. Muallem is all smiles and that's as much support as Syria is going to give to this "extraordinary" session. Let's face it, unless there is substance behind any accord, something that the arabs cannot give to Bashar, this whole thing amounts to a charade pure and simple. What Syria really wants, are guarantees that only the USA can provide and the syrians are just buying their time until the next US president takes over at the White House.
Posted by: Andre | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 10:24 AM
Andre,
To refute this crap...Pentagon is not run by Bush. They have their own culture. Also, a change in USA president??/
They waited for a change in France...They wish Chirac was still there, don't they?
USA can elect a Giuliani or McCain who are not about to be softies...So let them wait...Bush is not the one who dictated this change in American foreign policy. It was Bin Laden...
Posted by: danny | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 11:13 AM
danny,
You're missing the point. Syria is holding a major card in its hands right now and it is not going to give it up until it gets what it really wants, namely guarantees on an Israeli-Syrian accord for the return of the Golan and of course protection to the regime, read the IT. The whole focus of this presidential issue is to let the whole world know that Syria holds the key to any solution. The french did actually reverse Chirac's isolation policy by trying to "engage" the syrian regime but it faltered b/c they could not provide the guarantees Syria wanted and the US never agreed to them in the first place. The Syrians are probably betting on a new US administration that will be willing to engage them and they hope, to give them what they want. Remember, new administrations are always susceptible to wanting to reverse old policies and it takes them a while to catch up to the realities on the ground.
Posted by: Andre | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 11:32 AM
Andre,
I am missing the point. Syria has several issues...Golan being the least. they are afraid of their ally's (Israel's) change of mind...That Israel might advocate for a regime change in Syria. Also, as you correctly illuded: IT. Also, Lebanon!! They want it!!
As far as Sarko. he has been coordinating his efforts with Bush. Their maneuvers were more to satisfy Russia's contention that Syria was not being engaged...A lot of events are lining up against Syria. Most likely the collapse of AL meeting (or move) from Syria; probable EU/UN/Arab sanctions; and operational functioning of IT...
As far as US administration engaging them...All the players have tested those avenues and embarassed for doing so (see the list from Pelosi to Patrick Kennedy).
Posted by: danny | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 12:06 PM
You guys are honestly thinking this might be different than the 8 million previous arab initatives? Good luck!
Nassrallah is STILL insisting on his veto power and his government of national unity. Nothing's changed.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 12:56 PM
BV,
And Aoun has joined the fray too by re-stating his position...looks like the arab league session wasn't so extraordinary after all!
Posted by: Andre | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 03:39 PM
It never is. I don't understand why people (even those who piss on the Arab league for being so inept) suddenly thought this would be different.
Truth is, the power to make things happen does not reside with the Arab League, or the US. The power to make things happen resides in Tehran and Damascus, until further notice.
Obstructionism is easy. Doesn't take much work. All you have to do is say "No." and that's exactly what they've been doing, no matter the initiatives and where they come from.
The only way to EFFECTIVELY teach the obstructionists a lesson is through proper action, not talk and initiative. I hate to say it, but unless the Arab League is willing to do something drastic like throw Syria out of the League, or threaten a full on boycott (economic, political, etc.), they have ZERO power.
Same goes for the West. Unless they're willing to park a few carriers off the Syrian coast, throw Syria out of the UN, or come up with some overflight sanctions (like they did in the 90s for the Kurds in Iraq), none of this is worth a damn.
Posted by: Bad Vilbel | Monday, January 07, 2008 at 03:59 PM