The game is not over

Did a US-Syrian deal make Suleiman the candidate of choice? Did March 14 capitulate? Wrong questions and conclusions for two reasons:

First, this isn't about the United States, and what it can do for Lebanon. This has always been about what the Lebanese can do for themselves. Sadly, after two years of patchwork politics, it turned out the Lebanese, March 14 included, are not capable of much. Last month, those in March 14 banking or counting on American and European support in their defensive fight against Syrian aggression, realized that at the end of the day, as Kouchner repeatedly reminded them, they were on their own. The best they could get was a president elected through a majority vote, enjoying international support but ruling over something that resembles Somalia. It was Jumblatt, now grudgingly promoting the "Better Suleiman than Chaos" solution, who said Lebanese democracy cannot survive with a regime like Assad's acting with impunity. We, Lebanese, who placed hope in March 14 leaders, even as we berated them every time we felt they strayed from the right path, knew all along that the battle against the Assad regime was not a battle between equals. The coalition that was born after the Hariri assassination had the odds stacked against it from the start. This isn't Middle Earth. This is the Middle East.

Second, the real battle was never about the presidency. Note that even after March 14 accepted Suleiman as a lone candidate, the other camp is still demanding "guarantees". The real issues have always been Hizbullah's weapons, the Hariri tribunal and the latter's implications on the Assad regime. A Suleiman presidency may comfort the Assad regime, but it will not change the parliament's majority. If anything, it might reinvigorate parliament, unless March 14 is stupid enough to offer more concessions. In other words, the Assad regime has not won. Not yet.

March 14's greatest mistake was to let its opponents neutralize their weapons: the parliament's majority, and the cabinet. Both institutions were made ineffective, thanks to Nabih Berri and March 14's own mistakes. The climax was made to be the presidential election, but March 14 found itself close to a rushed and costly resolution.

It is not over yet. We have not reached the end, and the battle has not been lost. You and I may not have faith in those leading the fight. But this is Lebanon, folks. And as someone once said, your glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time you fall.

That said, it is time for some of us to stop equating "March 14" with our vision for Lebanon. Our country never had the revolution that Bush said we had, and that we believed we had.  If it did happen, it only lasted a day. Suleiman cannot end what has not started. The onus is on those who on March 14th, 2005 believed they walked for independence, to generate a true revolution.

Comments

[Fawzan]

Folks we have to see things from a realistic perspective. No one has the appetite for war. Not the Americans, nor the French, nor the multitude of Lebanese 4th amendment exercisers.

I would rather see the battle of east and west shift to the Hormoz straight than to once again be settled in Aley, Bhmdoun, and Shiyya7.

There is no shame in compromise, and AK you are right, the fight is still on... at least for another 2 years when we will see what the new parliament will look like. For now, I congratulate the M14 leaders for pulling us away from the praecipes. There are times for revolutionary bravado, and times for cool and calculated moves to avoid losing everything you have gained.

Now a few notes to watch out for next week. If Siniora's Government tables the bill to amend the constitution, and the opposition votes for it, could it not be seen as a confidence vote? Will that not mean that everything that Siniora Government has done since the M8 team left is now legal. Could this not be the gambit?

I don't think this is done yet. I really feel that the M8 will try to scuttle this on the last minute. Let's see how the week develops!

[Ace]

If I understand you correctly, you are expecting the same Parliament that has allowed Berri to tell them when they can, and can't meet (regardless of what the Constitution says), and allowed Berri to be the only Constitutional authority in Lebanon to ... do what? ... find a backbone? Extremely doubtful. They are totally conditioned (from 15 years of Syrian control) to do what they are told. The Parliament should "control" Lebanon, but the MPs and people of Lebanon have allowed Berri to control the Parliament. Berri takes orders from Syria and from Hezbollah. I don't think that will change. Very few even care. They just want this to be over, and will accept almost anything if is sounds like safety.

Consider that Hezbollah has faced down the Majority Parliament and M14, with their threats and intimidation. Do you really think they will stop now that they are sure they can do this? Very unlikely.

[AK]

Ace, I have no expectations of the kind you mentioned.

[Bad Vilbel]

AK,

Good post. Pretty much sums up the situation correctly, in my opinion. The onus is, and has always been on the Lebanese people (not the US, France, or whoever else). And as AK rightly points out, the Lebanese people haven't really figured it out yet.

And more importantly, AK is ABSOLUTELY correct in pointing out that is was never about the presidency. This has always been about Hezballah's weapons and the tribunal. And guess where we're gonna be in another 2 weeks, once Suleiman is elected and takes his new seat: We're gonna be exactly where we left off back in Nov. 2006. Hezballah is going to want that 1/3+1 veto power in the new cabinet. And that's what it's been about all along.

As Ace pointed out in his comment: I don't expect the Parliament to amount to much, as long as they (and the Lebanese people) continue to simply allow Berri and his ilk to tell them what they can or can't do.

[naja]

The interesting thing about Suleiman The Inevitable is his ability to do two contradictory things at the same time. On March 14th, 2005, he deployed the troops to prevent demonstrations, and never prevented them. In Nahr el-Bared, he fought the Syrian-backed Fateh Al Islam... and exonerated the Syrians. Now stand by as he swears to protect the constitution, after his constitution-busting election - or as we should from now on call it, appointment.

[External Viewer]

AK,
I wish I could share your optimism, but I can't. The door is now open to renewed syrian hegemony with a vengeance. Don't count on military people to be smart. They only understand brute force tactics. They're not intellectuals. That's where suleiman belongs. So for his intellectual decisions, he'll be looking east.
Revolutions never occur by consensus, but with courage and vision as equal partners, and always a price to pay. M14 had vision but not courage and was not ready to pay a price for the actions they never dared to take. The birth and independence of a country is not usually offered on a gold platter.

In my wildest dreams, I just hope that M14 is luring the MPs to the parliament for a 2/3 quorum, only to elect one of their own. Of course that's wishful thinking...

[Lover]

Well, maybe if March 14 wanted to gain and stay on the moral high-ground, and play the game by 'the books', then maybe it shouldn't have neutralised the Supreme Court in Lebanon - the only institution who is allowed to legitimately interpret the constitution.

Everything would make sense had those idiots not done that, no?

[Ace]

Lover .. I have no idea where you are from but IF it's Lebanon, you should study a bit before you make a fool of yourself with totally incorrect statements. There is NO Supreme Court in Lebanon. There is a Constitutional Council, but it has never had the authority to interpret the Constitution. Parliament passed laws preventing that years ago. Only Parliament has the authority to decide Constitutional matters and what is, and is not "Constitutional" .... and Berri won't allow Parliament to meet - so he now claims this exclusive "authority". There is NO procedural rule that trumps a Constitution - except in Lebanon of course.

I understand that you might want the totally Syrian appointed, corrupt Constitutional Council to have remained in place - but M14 tried to fill the vacant appointments with anti-Syrians, and the pro-Syrians (shock) objected - so there is no more Supreme Council for the time being.

The only thing that would have made "sense" is for M14 to not have allowed the President of the Parliament to claim to be the only power and authority in Lebanon. That would have not only been the "moral high ground", but it would have followed the law and the Constitution. The biggest guns and the biggest threats won out. Cowards all.

[kanyamakan]

Ace

Right on.

Lets stop all this delusion. M14 folded and decided to retire to their palaces leaving their supporters with...

[danny]

Ace,

Perfect...Romeo is living in his hallucinations!!!

AK,
I think "the game is not over yet" should be the title of all things that happen in Lebanon. For any side to negotiate they have to "feel" imminent harm or have some dignity and care about the things that are being negotiated over... HA and clAoun have neither dignity or give a shit to what the common lebanese think about!!
HA will object, threaten, cajol and intimidate as well as assasinate anyone who suggests anything that conficts with its "mini state'. It's a long way to perdition!!
ClAoun should be admitted to asfourieh. I thought he said his "initiative" was dead as of November 23rd 10:00 pm and did not want anyone talking to him...Yet he babbles on!
The "opposition" a.ka.a Hizballah is not responding clearly. For those who think they were not out maneuvered...THINK AGAIN!!!
Guys, I still think 50+1 is a disctinct possiblity (most likely with a few more than 68).

We are staying tuned...

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

Siniora's government is in place, ( hopefully ) for the next 2 years. So for now, what's the rush to appoint a president?
Lets look on the positive side of it: as long as there's no president, Siniora's administration is the only possible game in town. Lets keep it this way as long as possible.
.

[ghassan karam]

AK,
I read your above post as soon as I had finished putting together some thoughts about the same subject. I hope that you would not mind if I break my promise of going on a hiatus by posting my comments.

Cedar Revolution: RIP
A genuine grass-roots movement is a very rare event indeed. But when such developments take place they serve as a reminder of how the power of the people, the ordinary citizens, is the only power that matters. After all the raison d’être of a modern democracy is to promote the general welfare of its inhabitants. The Lebanese and millions of people all around the globe were privileged to witness such a rare event on the streets and alleys and public squares of Beirut. Close to a million and a half Lebanese from all walks of life and from all parts of the country converged on Beirut to send a powerful message: “We are Lebanon and we have had enough foreign interference with our God given rights as a free and sovereign people. We demand a sovereign state and responsible governance.” Their call for freedom and liberty was heard by the “occupiers” and the traditional politicians alike. The “occupation” forces had no choice but to comply, helped by the threat of US armed action, but unfortunately the local traditional politicians managed to co-opt the popular revolution and to wrest control of it by pretending that they were the real force behind it all along. In fact the only interest of these traditional politicians was to salvage their spheres of influence and resume their game of Business as Usual i.e. run Lebanon as if it is a collection of feudal fiefdoms.

It is easy to assign blame to Hezbollah and its major ally General Aoun for the current Lebanese political morass. Hezbollah has continued to flaunt its power by establishing a state within a state, starting a destructive war, holding illegal demonstrations and above all paying homage to foreign powers while General Aoun is all consumed by becoming a President by any means necessary. These efforts could be judged by some as being misguided but in a sense such efforts can be dismissed as typical acts by an “opposition” in its efforts to gain more power. Obviously Hezbollah can be looked upon as being the antithesis of a grass roots movement and its lofty goals of establishing a modern, secular, democratic and freedom loving state. (Hezbollah is considered by many to be nothing else but an extension of the Iranian National Guards). And General Aoun dissociated himself from the goals of the Cedar Revolution as soon as Hezbollah promised to help him fulfill his life’s obsession.

But yet it was not the opposition that has effectively ended the dream of million and a half Lebanese. A group of politicians managed to present itself as the guardian of a revolution that opposed all what these politicians stood for, real representative government, and a modern sovereign non-sectarian state. The leaders of what became known as the March 14 bloc had nothing in common with the aspirations of the brave, youthful, demonstrators of the Cedar Revolution except its name. They forged an electoral alliance with those whose principles are to undermine the state; they could not take any decisive measures either when a war was ignited on purpose by an illegal militia or when a number of cabinet members resigned. They became obsessed with the tribunal , whose work is essential, at the expense of all other governance, they have failed to enforce law and order all across the land and they continued to surrender Lebanese sovereignty . But above all else they have, through inaction, conspired against the Lebanese Constitution by failing to convene the Chamber of Deputies, hold by elections as stated by the law or make sure that the Constitutional Council is fully constituted and is operational. And as if the previous partial list of major failures to lead and govern is not enough they have agreed to short circuit the constitution again and to appoint illegally a president . Yes the real and true betrayal of the popular revolution was accomplished and finalized by the unprincipled actions of a majority that either had no interest in seeing democracy blossom or as a result of incompetence.
Yet all is not lost. We the Lebanese citizens must rediscover our “citizenship” (mowatiniah) and throw out all of the rascals in two years time. If we fail to do that then we desreve all what we are getting.

[Ralf]

Game? So you do recognize that they are playing!
Who are the pawns AK???
Me, you, the other citizens, the whole country...???
Enough please, I know how hard it is to recognize that we have been fooled, that we have followed the wrong leaders...
But to be democratic is exactly to be able to change sides and punish the ones we wrongfuly trusted.
We keep criticizing the aounis how they blindly follow their leader no questions asked, same for the hezboz, and you are asking us to be like them...
Sorry my friend, thats not gona happen.
The kidnappers of M14 are dead and allah ma3oun.
If you want something to believe in lets work on regaining the leadership of the lebanese people revolution and dismiss its actual leaders.
The game IS over!!!!
Time to be goddamn serious!!!

[Ralf]

Hey Ghassan,
Great post.
We are thinking of setting up a protest anti-M14 actual leaders in December to detrone them and regain our revolution.
Anyone interested please start contacting me on ralfsrouji@gmail.com and lets gather our thoughts and organize a big gathering and show'em all where the real majority is.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ghassan,

Glad to have you back, if only for a one-shot commentary. That was EXCELLENT! You just about summed it all up in a nutshell. People lose sight of the bigger picture here, and get bogged down in partisan politics and theories about what really happened behind the scenes, etc.

As you have said many times (as have others), the real issue here is us, the Lebanese people, striving for a true state, with functional institutions (that are respected, and not bypassed and ignored). Law and Order. We, the people, have let these so-called leaders co-opt the Cedar Revolution for their own gains (on both sides) and many of us continue, through backwards ideas of allegiance and loyalty to sects and clans, to support these guys. The day we learn to hold them truly accountable is a long ways away, i'm afraid. I don't really have much hope for the near future.

[Ramzi]

Good post AK welcome back!

[danny]

Ghassan,
I have enjoyed your posts here and most recently on Ya Libnan. Great summary and analysis of the root causes of the problem. I have been away from my country for over three decades, ever since I was a child...please explain to me why intellectuals like you have not been able to take over the political middle or high ground and crush the petty politics and dirty politicians in Lebanon? Why our youth in universities usually regress into sectarian paranoia. We need voices like you Ghassan to not only enlighten but teach...Does not Lebanon have any thinkers after Kassir and Tueni (May they RIP)?
We are usually trapped and sucked into analysis of corrupt motives...Is there any hope in Lebanon to be a modern non-sectarian civilized society? Or is it that that Lebanese people (I apologize phrasing it like this) are happy in their own shit?

[Super Dude]

"We are thinking of setting up a protest anti-M14 actual leaders in December to detrone them and regain our revolution"

Ah great, more division. An opposition to the ruling coalition (M14) AND the 'official' opposition (M8). I mean hey, if you oppose M14 leaders, you must oppose the M8 ones, right?

What will you be? D12?

How much division can this country of yours take?

Yes, you do deserve what you're getting, because everyone wants to open a 'dikken' on his own.

In the land of a million leaders, the citizen does not exist.

[Cedar Revolution / Gebran's Sons]

Ghassan,
I don't understand why you sound so surprised. We all knew M14 is composed mainly of feudal leaders and did not fully represent the Cedar Revolution aspirations. We only hoped we could use them to clear the presidential palace from the Syrian garbage and implement UN resolutions so in the next phase we could transition via parliamentary elections to those new leaders that truly represent the Cedar Revolution spirit. While we stand in respect for M14 martyrs, for they having to function under constant threat of assassination by Bashar's hired mafia, and for their achievement regarding the international court and stopping the Israeli-Hezbollah war; unfortunately M14 did not deliver on its mandate, behaved like a wobbling minority, and couldn’t even perform the simple task of electing a president while the whole world was supporting it. That's maybe better so the youth of the Cedar Revolution can grow up and start moving from idealistic discussions to real actions, taking matters into their own hands.

I don’t underestimated the power of democratic forces to instill positive changes in a country like Lebanon, not as a wishful thinking, but because of our unique democratic roots in the region. The mass indoctrination and intimidation that work in Syria and Iran sooner or later will fail in Lebanon. The biggest failing of M14 was not to understand its mandate and reach out from day one to the Shiaa community through its middle class and intellectuals with meaningful reforms and targeted developments to bring them under the Cedar Revolution tent. That was the crowd aspirations for a united and equitable Lebanon.

So I’m not surprised. These excerpts from the second article of Gebran's Sons, written 2 years ago soon after Gebran's assassination, state the following:

"Lebanon does not remain in shackles because it is still governed by the latest reincarnation of the same leadership that brought us the horrors of the civil war. A leadership skilled in zero-sum political games but seriously lacking the vision and strategic thinking needed to rebuild a nation. A leadership made of politicians instead of statesmen and warriors instead of builders. No wonder the only builders and planners among them were assassinated. Not to worry, this too will pass away as the new generation has firmly planted the seed of a genuine democracy. We were told that Arab lands are not fertile for democracy. Our youth proved us wrong by their aspirations, unity, tolerance, organization and effectiveness. A bit of patience and they will produce the next generation of leaders that will help Lebanon reclaim its historical role as a bridge between cultures and religions. My generation taught them war and hate and they are teaching us peace and tolerance. We are still trying to confuse them, but they won't be fooled for too long. They are the Cedar Revolution, the new Lebanon, the shining star and trailblazer for others in the region."

"Frankly, we are not impressed or scared by Hizbollah. It is another hollow structure that belongs to a bygone era. While the world is moving towards peace and tolerance, Hizbollah teaches war and hate. While Lebanon's prosperity depends on stability and neutrality, Hizbollah chains Lebanon to the most virulent regional conflicts and the worst radical regimes. While sovereignty and the rule of law are the oxygen the economy needs, Hizbollah undermines sovereignty by creating fiefdoms and ministates. While hard working Arab families are yearning for peace, Hizbollah is a spoiler and an instrument of radical regimes. While we desperately seek to join the nations of builders, Hizbollah submerges us into the culture of war and destruction. While southern Lebanon needs to attract foreign corporations to provide decent jobs and economic development, Hizbollah erects an iron curtain keeping its communities economically impoverished, intellectually deprived, and socially and politically isolated. While Lebanese from all walks of life and religious beliefs spontaneously demonstrated for independence and freedom after Hariri's assassination, Hizbollah marched in support of the assassins and the symbols of the police state."

"It took thirty years to liberate Lebanon from the Syrian occupation, and now Hizbollah is making Lebanon the “attack dog” for Iran's reckless nuclear pursuit, a dangerous game that may trap Lebanon for decades. While Iranian revolutionaries are enjoying the massive oil profit from destabilizing the world, Lebanon once again will pay in blood and misery for Iran's nuclear nirvana and regional ambitions. Iran will no doubt give Hizbollah more poison-gifts in the form of advanced weapons, thus insuring Lebanon will remain unstable and ungovernable. To justify the weapons, Hizbollah will have to provoke Israel in the hope of creating attacks and counterattacks so it can maintain its cult of martyrdom and hatred towards Israel and the West. As before, these actions will make a mockery of Lebanon's independence, increase lawlessness, keep at bay Western firms, destroy our economy and result in higher taxation and misery for all. This did not seem to bother Hizbollah's leadership in the past. Instead, they had the arrogance of considering anyone demanding full sovereignty of the Lebanese army to be an Israeli agent. How pathetic when they themselves are behaving as Syrian and Iranian agents!"

These excerpts were written two years ago. So nothing that's happening today is surprising. Of course major mistakes were committed by Patriarch Sfeir for giving cover to Emile Lahood when it counted most, for M14 for voting Berri as speakers with no preconditions, for M14 for not including an independent Shiaa in the cabinet and accepting the closing of the parliament

So Ghassan, please stop complaining. If you care, we need you. Raise your sleeves and join Abu Kais, Shunkleash, Ralf, and the rest of us to recreate the Cedar Revolution spirit, reflected in Gebran Tueni's pledge. It is precisely at moments of despair that great things can happen. The Cedar Revolution is the most defining moment in Lebanon’s history. We will never let it drown!

Gebran’s sons are working on creating a new blog for the New Cedar Revolution…. A blog to go beyond words and start planning for organizations and actions. We won’t let useful idiots like Aoun and Nassrallah, each with his sickening obsession, be the hired assassins of the Cedar Revolution. The Cedar Revolution is bigger than all of us, and will soon be back because most Lebanese are ready for it.

[R]

AK,

May I suggest that you post Ghassan's comment as a stand-alone post, so that we may discuss it more fully.

Cheers,
R

[Ralf]

Hey super dude,
Your dekanneh has been closed for 30 years because of these bastards you surrendered the country to.
Stay home and wait for the 8 oclock news, and blame it on the americans or the syrians or the israelis or the iranis or on Zarkon if you want.
The most important thing don't move your lazy ass when it is needed.
If you think that detroning march 14 is more division, read all the posts above, i've never seen the lebanese more united against our political class since the day I was born.
But hey, we supported loosers that never jumped on any occasion, so one more time lets sit and let them take the country to more crap and then all we have to do is complain about the smell.
The protest is going to take place with or without you super lazy!

[Ralf]

Hey Cedar Revolution,
I have gathered more than 30 people already.
We need your support and anybody who is ready to organize and spread the word.
Let's do it and show them rascals who the country belongs to.
Write me an email or post your blog address.

This is how it will work!!!

[Super Dude]

Ralph,

You read one post of mine and you deduce all that about me. How very brilliant of you...

Anyway, good luck with your endeavor.

[Ralf]

Instead of pointing at my brilliance, check your tone and your empty criticismes
;-) might help you thinking twice before being critical for free
Anyway, still hope to see you with us
(bring your cousin super man with you:-))