Sarkozy gives Assad one more chance, Rice to bewitch opposition

Sarkozy has threatened to reveal all if Assad does not translate his promises into actions, and Condoleezza Rice is rumored to be planning a surprise visit to Beirut to "speed up the election".

Forgive this blogger for being cynical, but what can Rice do that Kouchner and others like him didn’t try two hundred times already. What magic wand does she own that only works in Lebanon?

As for Sarkozy, he told a select group of journalists today that his patience is running thin with Assad, whom he talked to three times, knowing that no one else is talking to him. He said he told Assad he would agree to talk about the rights of the Lebanese parliament’s minority only after he allows the presidential election to take place. Assad reportedly has until Saturday to prove himself to Sarkozy. In the case where Assad fails Sarko again, the French president will “get honest”.

Yes, Sarkozy will tell all. Everything the world already knows will become common knowledge again, after Sarkozy learns it for the hundredth time. Assad must be shaking with terror!

One person who perhaps realized how useless Sarkozy and Rice are as politicians, is Walid Jumblatt. The man who once went to the US to ask for regime change next door, and a second time to ask about what’s taking the international tribunal so long, has dramatically softened his anti-Syrian and anti-Persian rhetoric, and is beginning to sound like a Buddhist Monk.

More than three years ago, three men got together and decided it was time to end the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Those three men were Walid Jumblatt, Rafik Hariri and Patriarch Sfeir. The world gave them a resolution but didn’t know how to implement it. We lost one of them to murder, and the other two are now living somewhere between fear and compromise. We are watching today the outcome of this abject international failure to stand up to thugs and criminals.

Comments

[danny]

Am I dreaming? or has this fiasco become cross between a reality show and soap opero...

[Bad Vilbel]

Wait! Didn't Sarkozy "threaten" Bashar and give him a "last chance" LAST weekend? This Tuesday was supposed to be the deadline, after which Sarko was going to go medieval on Bashar or somesuch....So now he's giving Bashar a SECOND (or 12th) "last" chance, huh? Let me guess. On saturday, nothing will happen, and Sarko will make a statement on Sunday morning telling us how his patience is running thin with Bashar...Right?

These people are ridiculous.

[LebExile]

Don't hold me to it, but I've been hearing that Israel and the US are about to start working for regime change in Syria again...

I'm not sure if it was just the frustration coming out, but, the people I was speaking to were pretty insistent that the US is fed up with Syria with regards to Lebanon and Palestine, and are willing to take their chances with a *possible* islamist government to the north/east.

quite frankly, with all the talk about "Syria should be more co-operative" or "Syria's behaviour is not very helpful" I pretty much doubt it myself... but, here's to hoping anyway... anyone heard something similar???

[Andre]

The french like the americans are intersted in one thing and that is to promote their own agenda in the Middle East and Lebanon is part of the deal. The Syrians and Iranians have their own as well and will use whtever methods available to further their interests and counter the western powers...in the meantime the tug of war will continue and the local politicians from both sides will play the part that is assigned to them which is to be the foot soldiers to one power or the other, they will do what they are told and once an agreement is reached among their bosses then they'll kiss and make up...and whoever is finally elected, will sit on the presidential throne with his tail b/w his legs. This is a regional and international chess game that is being played at the expense of Lebanon and there is nothing our "local heroes" can do about it except to bow and obey! How sickening.

[e]

Abu Kais,
Everything you write in this post is true. However, how do you stand up to thugs and criminals except by using force? You cannot convince Bashar the mafioso to do anything except by threat of force. But see, since the Lebanese are not willing to be the spearhead in this fight, why should anybody else care about this fight?
Why should an American, European or Israeli die in order to help Lebanon if the Lebanese are not willing to sacrifice themselves? Freedom is expensive. Are you willing to pay the price or are you just prepared to criticize others for not being firm enough with Syria?

[Bad Vilbel]

Andre,

While you are correct in your assessment that this is a regional tug of war, there is absolutely NO REASON why our politicians should bow to these foreign agendas. And as e points out, as long as the Lebanese people themselves are not willing to do much, there is absolutely no reason why foreigners are going to be willing to die for us. They're going to do what's in their best interests (as you pointed out). It's the Lebanese people, and their leaders, that need to start working for what's in OUR interest.

[LebExile]

I can't believe what I am reading... what do you mean the Lebanese are not willing to do much to help themselves??? Where did the "Lebanese are not willing to sacrafice" come from...

So far - all the sacraficing has come from the March 14 side - and if you'd like to see more sacraficing - then, I'd suggest you give us some more big guns...

yes - we are willing to sacrafice for our country - but not suicide for it!

[Battal Agha]

Mi bi Hikkak illa difrak - That means don't rely on other people to do the work for you. "E" is right. It is a sad period for Lebanon and for those who believed in freedom and independence.

[LebExile]

you do have a point, however, you will have noticed that this is playing out as a minicold war between Iran and the US - each is using a proxy in Lebanon to do it's fighting for it... Iran is using March 8 - with Hizz and the US is using March 14 with Marjority (Sunni, christians and Durzi). However, while Iran has Hizzy armed to the teeth, the US does not fully trust the Lebanese armed forces to fully arm it to take on Hizzy - or maybe they dont want them to take them on.

Eventually, the US will have to provide better arms, and they really cant expect the Lebanese to take on Hizz and Iran - while in July 06 - Israel with all it's might was unable to totally destroy hizz!.

Sorry for the rambling - have too much on my miind at the moment!

[Andre]

Bad Vilbel,

You are ABSOLUTELY right in that the lebanese leaders must act to protect the country's interest but unfortunately this is simply not happening. M14 and M8 are so beholden to the West and Syria/Iran respectively that they can't seem to be able to think or act for themselves anymore. This is Lebanon's curse, one in which everyone gets entangled in regional fights and just can't seem to be able to see beyond what this or that side wants...and so the country is shaken by the turbulent currents of Middle East conflicts....nothing has changed there since 1943. I wonder if it ever will! We need a major overhaul of our current political system, but then again that requires courage and determination in the face of adversity something that is very rare if it does exist at all among this bunch of leaders that we now have.

[Hazbani]

E is 100% correct, there were too many mistakes. Israel was tested and failed to see that it was being tested. Israeli leaders saw this test as a war game, it was not. The USA ? Not long ago it bombed Serbia for weeks, but then came Iran, Iraq, Afganistan, no more, not Lebanon no chance that the USA will lift a finger for Lebanon. France?. Germany? Russia? China? Junblat believe, I think but I do not know, that if the chips are realy down the Durzi in Israel will do some thing for him, perhaps. Azmi Bshara, a professional turn coat from his days as a communist at the Shtasi U. in the East German Socialist paradise is messing in Lebanon. The Hizb. has too many guns. Things look rather grim. Still I wish well for Lebanon.

[Arnold Rosen]

"Eventually, the US will have to provide better arms, and they really cant expect the Lebanese to take on Hizz and Iran - while in July 06 - Israel with all it's might was unable to totally destroy hizz!"

The US should be able to provide better arms and I'm sure they would check and block any overt assistance to Hezbollah from Iran and Syria. However, any US aid would be contingent on whether Lebanon is willing to run the risks of confronting Hezbollah. I am not beating the drums for war. But I don't think that the Lebanese are going to persuade Hezbollah (or any armed militia) to voluntarily disarm. It will require at minimum the threat of violence or at least the recognition that a violent response is a possibility. Can the fractious sects that constitute Lebanon ever coalesce or unify enough to stand up to Hezbollah. For here, it seems doubtful.

The July '06 analogy is totally irrelevant. Despite Arab paranoia to the contrary, Israel wants no part of Lebanon. It merely wants to be left alone by Lebanon -- not be shelled or have their soldiers killed or abducted from Israeli soil. Do you really think Israel could have failed to wipe out Hezbollah if they were willing to accept the casualties? Try this thought experiment. Send 10,000 Hezbollah fighters across the border with every ounce of firepower and religious fanaticism they can muster. Ground the Israel air force. Sure the casualties would be horrendous. But, do you really think that Israel would shrink from paying any price in terms of blood and treasure to defend their homes?

Only the Lebanese -- of any stripe -- are going to live in Lebanon before, during and after any confrontation. If they are not willing to pay the price, no one else will do it for them.

Arnie from NYC

[e]

Jumbalat is right that Israel (not just the Israeli Druze) will not let the Lebanese Druze fall. But here is the big difference, Israel would help Joumbalat once he is already fighting the Syrian/Iranian forces. Israel would help March 14 in a civil war by providing air-support and arms. But Israel will not fight Syria FOR the Lebanese or in their place. That makes no sense.

On the other hand, a civil war is the worst option for Lebanon and should only be considered if nothing else works. I think that is still far away. Diplomacy and pressure can work but the Lebanese will need the patience of angels. The process can take years. This is indeed playing into the hands of the Syrians that don't mind chaos in Lebanon if they don't control it. But what can you do? The problem is that the Syrians won't mind a civil war in Lebanon also (in this they have different interest than Hizballah).

The bottom line is that the Syrians don't mind trashing Lebanon while for March 14 (and most Lebanese) this is the worst scenario. Therefore March 14 is in a delicate situation that will take years to unravel.

[Ramzi]

Israel supporting March 14th. That is a joke. Lets take a look at how they supported March 14th so far:

-Bombed the hell out of the Lebanese people plus the infrastructure built since the civil war, from the South all the way to the North. This was a surgical strike against Hizbollah like a lobotomy is a cure for a headache.

-Refusing to budge on the Shabaa Farm issue, not even to hand it to the UN. That would help the March 14th take this convenient Hizballah excuse to remain armed off the table

-Prisoner swap negotiation direct with Hizballah, therefore reinforcing the fact that the Lebanese state has no authority.

-PM Ehud Olmert pushing Washington to include Syria in the Annapolis summit. i.e. a step towards ending their isolation.

So yes it makes sense that Isreal would support March 14 over Hizbollah. But I think they just want both sides to continue to fight it out.

[e]

Ramzi,
Before the war March 14 were in a coalition with Hizballah and gave cover to the "resistance" at the expense of Israel. You reap what you sow.
March 14 have never said that they are for peace with Israel, au contraire. Why should Israel give them any prizes especially since any movement on Shaba would mean nothing to Hizballah. They would remind you of the seven villages.
Regarding the prisoners, March 14 themselves proclaimed they do not hold them and are not responsible for them. Why negotiate with them?
I am not sure that Israel cared whether Syria came or not to Annapolis. It was more an American issue. Livni has explicitly said that Israel will not negotiate with Syria while it supports terror and destabilzes Lebanon.
When you figure out who are the enemies of a democratic and free Lebanon, let me know.

[Ramzi]

e,

I am not siding with or against Hizb or March 14th in my comment. The only point I tried to make is that Israel is not looking to "help" Lebanese independence as your comments implied. That is simply based on the 4 points I outlined. You can add the daily over-flights further mocking the weakness of the Lebanese state and giving credence to Hizbollah being the "protector" of Lebanon.

In regards to Olmert and Annapolis the words came out of his own mouth here:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=87196

The UN. and Europe have approached the Israeli's to relinquish Shebaa to weaken Hizbollah reasoning to hold onto its arms. Hizbollah can add the villages but you have weakened their argument. Doesnt hurt to try.

Is March 14th the perfect group towards Lebanese independence? Far from it. But if you are implying that the savior of Lebanese independence is Hizbollah.. then you need to read a bit more about the history of that movement. The clear and present danger to the Lebanese state is Iran, Syria and Hizbollah.

You have to pick your fights. If you severely hate March 14th's leadership, you can go against them once you deal with Iran and Syria, and once you get Hezbollah to relinquish their guns that scare the hell out of the other sects. If you destroy March 14th now, you will fall into the lap of Syria once again. Don't take my word for it, time will prove me right (that is if Aoun and Hizbollah win)

[Andre]

Israel will not lift a finger to help anyone in Lebanon. The only time that it will do so is if some party openly decides to do its dirty business. Israel is not concerned with lebanese political dynamics, in fact they'd rather see a state of chaos prevail which would give them a free hand to do whatever they wanted when they felt like it and using the ever so convenient excuse that there is no state government and as such they can act w/o accountability. Both Syria and Israel have a tacit understanding that Lebanon is a free for all "zone" where the gloves do come off in settling accounts and whoever has the strongest hand wins...refer back to the 1982 invasion and what followed then the mid to late 1990's in the south.

[JoseyWales]

e,

You reap what you sow.

And Israel will reap and has reaped in the past.

Israel's tacit agreement with Syria is giving it Hamas support and Hezbo support and killings and war.

Don't you think that 2 bombs twice a year on Assa's head to cut off supplies to Hezbo would be cheaper than the war of 2006 and the upcoming war?

You don't want to kill him or his regime, don't. You just need to make him crap in his pants.

[Solomon2]

what can Rice do that Kouchner and others like him didn’t try two hundred times already.

Play Mozart on a piano.

What magic wand does she own that only works in Lebanon?

A big stick.

[Andre]

Something is cooking! Bush at a press ocnference said that he would support an election by 50+1. This sounds like a green light to M14 to go ahead and prepare for that eventuality.

[Hazbni]

Israel will not get into a war on Lebanese soil never ever unless attacked first. If any Israeli or any other person will tell you another story, stay away from him, he is no good and bad news. Remember Hungary and the USA in 1956?
Israel want a stable and prosperous Lebanon, as it was, relative to the rest of the ME, between 1950 and 1970. Think how many universities were then and now in Arabia and Lebanon, and you will be sad,I am, realy. A rich, high tech. 5 million tourists a year, why not 15. Light industy, the center of all computer sofware in Arabic, center of UN in the ME, Two three gigantic Medical centers, it can be big !. When people will be making money, a lot of money, they will not be making war. Troubles in Lebanon will always be bad news for Israel, sooner or later.

[fubar]

"Something is cooking! Bush at a press ocnference said that he would support an election by 50+1. This sounds like a green light to M14 to go ahead and prepare for that eventuality."

Something is up? Really? NOT! The US has supported a 50% + 1 vote since the beginning. The US has never changed its position. Not once. Ever.

When does the great conspiracy end? There is no Lebanese President elected by 50% + 1 because M14 has been dicking around looking for some alternative way out and playing footsie with its French daddy.