The abyss

Saad Hariri has threatened on behalf of the parliament's majority to take unspecified action if the “opposition” continues to delay and obstruct the election of the army commander to the post of president. Hariri had reportedly agreed with Berri last Friday that the resigning Amal and Hizbullah ministers would return to the government for the sole purpose of passing the required constitutional amendment. However, and according to al-Hayat, Berri changed his mind after receiving instructions from Syria and Iran to stall for “reasons related to the regional situation”.

Berri, who Monday accused Prime Minister Fouad Siniora of trying to “take over” parliament, argued that every constitution in the world allows an amendment to originate in parliament and not the cabinet. Unfortunately for Berri, the post-Taef Lebanese constitution does not allow such a thing, even if the speaker and his buddies consider the cabinet illegal.

March 14 ended Monday by announcing it’s boycotting the Tuesday session, which Suleiman’s civilian suit had hoped would be the day it came out of the closet. Berri postponed until December 17th, and Aoun predicted there won’t be an election before the holidays, calling on people to celebrate and not fear the power vacuum.

Will limping March 14 do anything of consequence? Will Hariri get results from calls he made to Egypt and Jordan, especially after the latter’s apparent normalization of ties with the Assad regime?

If parliament does not amend the constitution before the end of the current session, the country will have to wallow in the vacuum until another session starts in March 2008. This seems to be the plan, as the country consolidates its role as regional crash test dummy.

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

What a freaking joke! Seriously!

Berri is lecturing us on "every constitution in the world"? Tell you what, Nabih baby! Every country in the world actually FOLLOWS their constitution. How about you start with that, eh?

Of course the opposition is stalling again after getting their instructions from Syria. This is ridiculous! Why is March 14 even bothering with all this crap? I know I've said the 50+1 option is dead, but these fuckers should be dusting it up right about now. I'm tired of this crap.

[Blacksmith Jade]

Its disgusting.

[fubar]

“If parliament does not ‘elect’ Suleiman before the end of the first ordinary session, the country will have to wallow in the vacuum until the second session starts in March 2008.”

Now you are just being sloppy, AK. You have mixed up the first and second sessions.

Article 32 [Ordinary Sessions]
The Chamber meets each year in two ordinary sessions. The first session opens on the first Tuesday following 15 March and continues until the end of May. The second session begins on the first Tuesday following 15 Oct; its meetings is reserved for the discussion of and voting on the budget before any other work. This session lasts until the end of the year.

I realize it is hard to take the Constitution seriously these days but, anyway, the parliament is in special electoral session until the a President is elected (Articles 74 & 75), without regard to the regular ordinary parliamentary sessions which technically cannot occur until a President is elected as no other business should be conducted before the election of President (Article 75).

Article 33 [Extraordinary Sessions]
The ordinary sessions begin and end automatically on the dates fixed in Article 32. The President of the Republic in consultation with the Prime Minister may summon the Chamber to extraordinary sessions by a Decree specifying the dates of the opening and closing of the extraordinary sessions as well as the agenda. The President of the Republic is required to convoke the Chamber if an absolute majority of the total membership so requests.

So, it seems that the Siniora cabinet, acting with the powers of the President while there is no President (Article 62), can actually convene the Parliament anytime it wants for whatever period it specifies and for whatever business it specifies.

And by the way, do we have a budget yet?

Article 86 [Provisional Budget]
If the Chamber of Deputies has not given a final decision on the budget estimates before the expiration of the session devoted to the examination of the budget, the President of the Republic, in coordination with the Prime Minister, immediately convenes the Chamber for an extraordinary session which lasts until the end of January in order to continue the discussion of the budget; if,
at the end of this extraordinary session, the budget estimates have not been finally settled, the Council of Ministers may take a decision on the basis of which a decree is issued by the President giving effect to the above estimates in the form in which they were submitted to the Chamber. However, the Council of Ministers may not exercise this right unless the budget estimates were submitted to the Chamber at least fifteen days before the commencement of its session. Nevertheless, during the said extraordinary session, taxes, charges, duties, imposts, and other kinds of revenues continue to be collected as before. The budget of the previous year is adopted as a basis. To this must be added the permanent credits which have been dropped, and the Government fixes the expenditures for the month of January on the basis of the 'provisional twelfth.'

[Bad Vilbel]

Budget? Are you kidding? You think these morons even know what a budget is?
Most of them think the Central Bank is just some giant piggy bank for their own personal use.

[Cheers]

Siniora should accept the resignation of the 6 ministers and appoint others. A project for constitutional amendement should be submitted by 10 deputies (5+5 or the hell with them, make it 10+0). If not, the government drafts and approves the amendment and send it to the parliament.
This should be done swiftly.
Cheers

[marillionlb]

Basically we Lebanese have to accept that M. suleiman is going to be our next president; the question remains as to when will he be APPOINTED. What a farce.M14 by delaying voting 50+1 have now found themselves lacking the necessary majority to do so. Why is it that all those people who demonstrated (peacefully) during the Cedar Revolution are still sitting at home silent?
People organize yourselves and demonstrate, demand that a new President be ELECTED.
Yes I know, easier said than done!

[AK]

Fubar, amending the constitution has to take place before the end of the current open session. An extraordinary session needs to be called by the president (no one) and prime minister (seen as illegal). I will clarify what I meant in the post.

[JoseyWales]

There comes a time in life (but not in the Mideast) when the Gordian know has to be cut.

This time has come over and over and over in this debacle.

Given where we are, what is needed is is a Plan A (close to consensus) and a Plan B (confrontation) and a set date and threat.

I.e. M14, call your people to parliament and ANNOUNCE: if 2/3 then amendment and Suleiman, if not then Lahoud or Harb or whomever with 50% + 1.

Bad rules are better than "no rules", and after a while "bad" deadlines/threats are better than open ended festering.

PS. Danny that humble pies is getting stale. And maybe neither one of us will get to eat it.

[JoseyWales]

Saad Hariri has threatened[...]

And BTW, the above does not work. You only get to threaten ONCE, after that you are a joke, and that's where you are Dear Saad and M-effing-14.

[Fawzan]

Never mind folks. HA has finally shown there hand through a statement by Kamati: HA's Candidate remains 'Aoun.
See here:
http://www.nowlebanon.com/Arabic/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=23088&MID=0&PID=0

Roomer had it that Slayman already informed Sfair directly that he has been vetoed by HA, and Kamati's statement supports this roomer. Now the question becomes: how can they sedate Slayman while they do the 50+1? Will Sfair agree to accept the 50+1? What will the Army do? What will HA do?

Geagea is right. The time has come for painful decisions. I hope they accept that now and move on.

[Bad Vilbel]

Indeed. Geagea is right when he says it is obvious to all now that the opposition doesn't want a president period. All this wrangling and stalling is just a way of postponing the state of vaccum and anarchy.

Now, why it took all these "learned" men of March 14 this long to figure it out, when the rest of us figured this out months ago, is beyond me. But at least now they know...I suppose.

So, time for "painful decisions" indeed. As someone said above, the Gordian knot has to be chopped off. Hell, at this point, I'd take a freaking flamethrower to the damn knot.

Looks like the 50+1 option is back on the table (good call Danny?). But it remains to be seen if these threats are serious this time, or if M14 will once again back down and look for yet more "negotiations".

[RebLeb]

Guys
The reason you keep getting disappointed is because you haven't gotten with the program yet. It is not one country any more. It is two: one is run by Syria through Hezbo and is made up of the South, the Bekaa and parts of Beirut. The other is the rest of the country where Hezbo is a participant and obstructionist.
The fatal mistake was to let Hezbo continue. Maybe there was no choice. Le Grand Liban no longer exists. It was a creation of the French who should have never attached the south and east to the Kesrouan and the Metn. The options now are to fight (good luck), downsize (could work, with the right foreign allies) or ship out.
God bless!

[Super Dude]

Why are we even talking about regular sessions?

Articles 74/75 specifically state that, right now, if the chamber were to meet, it will do so for the sole purpose of electing a president. No dates, no deadlines, no regular sessions. Where did all this come from?

[Joseywales]

Reb Leb is very right,

however: downsize (could work, with the right foreign allies)

Does not work, cuz only potential ally who can bolster your position to face Syria/Hezbo is Israel. as we know that which will lose you half your internal support, and all your Arab/Saudi support.

another potential ally, perphaps a Druze state or a redrawn Lebanon with all the Druze of Syria/Golan in it?? hmmmm, far fetched for now...

[Fawzan]

Not Far fetched Josewales. I have always said that to get Syria off our back we have to take the fight to Syria. The only problem is that Khaddam and his Irta are not able to act or are un-willing to get going with there stated goal of regime change. Without that Syria will not leave us alone. No way - no how.

You want change? We have to create conflict in Syria to destabilize the alliance in order to get change. Might as well throw everything in the fire this time and not let it just remain in the football field of Lebanon. We should at least be sending signals to Syria that if they intend to light the fuse in Lebanon, the bomb will go off in Damascus as well. Unless we can do that, there is no loss for them and they have no reason to let us be.

Just can't wait to see the noose around the goose-head optometrist.

[danny]

I was not going to comment again but...
These idiot Franch accomplished one thing: Made Syria relevant. I am thinking it is more Israel oriented policy than anything to do with Lebanon. As Israel is trying to sort out Gaza and negotiations with Abbas they do not need the HA distraction. Thus Sarkozy and uncle Bush decide this is the way to go to ease off the northern pressure off Israel.Syria will control The HA and HA will enjoy the strengthening of their mini state.

March 14 was weary of the USA and French support that's why they went to DC...

Lebanon Now has the title of " Calling The Bluff"...How appropriate. I just hope that March 14 reverts to their original plan. 50+1. However, these fools do not have the gumption or principles to follow through.
Some idiotic comments today about parliament sessions in March and we thought as BV stated "

Articles 74/75 specifically state that, right now, if the chamber were to meet, it will do so for the sole purpose of electing a president. No dates, no deadlines, no regular sessions."

Everyone but HA is running scared. I think the Lebanese "leaders" of March 14 hav had enough time the past two years to have a road map...If that included capitulating then why the fuck did they put these poor people through this cruel hoax that they are free!!!

I have this annoying feeling that they do not have the balls and neither the international support! I am not talking about as some fools might suggest, military one but the moral one.

Either they confront the adversries head on or quit!! Saad's threats???? What a pussy. Does he not know that even dogs understand that too many fake threats amount to a chiwawa's annoying yap!

Nassib Lahoud: 50 +1 is their only option available. All pretences are just that.

Again What the hell is the alternative? What are they waiting for??
PS

Josey I knew that pie was going to go stale and get moldy as well...

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

Option 1: Leave the vacuum as is. There's no president since 3 weeks now, or so. Did we miss him ?? ( I didn't ).

Option 2: Elect a 50%+1 March14 president. Let them regret they missed the compromise.
.

[Charlie]

There is also option 3:

Accept the resignation of the Shia ministers, and appoint new ones. This should be easily done now since the PM holds the presidential authority.

[JoseyWales]

Charlie,

What would be the half-life of a Shia minister joining the gvmnt at this point?

[Charlie]

Josey,

There are still vacancies at the Phonecia Hotel...They will be fine...:-)

[Fawzan]

And then what Charlie? Witness protection program in Idaho? Hehe!

[Charlie]

LOL...Idaho, hmm why not, at least they will not run out of potatos....:-)

[Andre]

Sfier is the one objecting to the 50+1 option and many members of M14 won't go against his wishes. I really think that M14 is screwed anyways, they really have no good options left and Geagea's statement painfully indicates that fact...I don't think that accepting the resignation of the ministers will work...Berry will not accept anything coming to him from that source anyways...this is a pure and deliberate deadlock that had been engineered all along and I think the opposition did flirt with he idea of Suleiman as president for a while but decided to dump him after M14 adopted him...believe it or not, Gen. Aoun is the only one that can unblock this situation if HE finally backs down and agrees to some deal with M14 but it doesn't look promising now...I still believe that if Aoun and Hariri can somehow agree on a role of President and PM, perhaps then this situation can be resolved, otherwise we're going to be stuck in this mode for a long time and at that point it's all up in the air...very frustrating and potentially dangerous situation. Lebanon remains a pawn and is paying the price in an everlasting and cruel tug of war b/w Syria and Iran on one side and the US and its regional allies on the other.

[tg]

heh

Seems like they can go for a couple of years not having a president or a functioning governtion (which isn't the end of the world) or they can get this thing settled with a new election.

Those seem to be the likely course of events.

[Bad Vilbel]

Aoun for president and Hariri for PM? You've got to be kidding me. Talk about cutting your nose to spite your face. That's 100 steps backwards from a modern, secular and law abiding Lebanon. Two completely incompetent and unqualified people to run the country's affairs? Just so we could get past the current crisis (and undoubtedly face new ones!).

I'm tired of people looking so short term that they're willing to accept ANYTHING to just "get it over with". They haven't figured out yet that usually means you only THINK you're getting over it, but the crap resurfaces 2 months later. That's what happens when you keep applying band-aids to a hemorrhaging patient.