Lebanon: who will save what?

According to As-Safir, Michel Suleiman has prepared the suit (hopefully not another white one) and the speech. The army commander is anxiously awaiting his "election" on Tuesday. According to the pro-"March 14" Lebanese media, however, the "opposition" is still inventing hurdles. As-Safir claims that the two camps agreed on everything, including the identity of the next prime minister and the cabinet makeup. March 14 denies such an agreement had taken place, and accuses the "opposition" of trying to claim victory through its refusal to go through the cabinet of Fouad Siniora, which the constitution says should initiate the constitutional amendment process. The opposition is afraid to end its siege of what it calls the "illegitimate" government with a conference of legitimacy upon its archenemy, the prime minister of Lebanon.

It's too painful to draw a comprehensive picture of the country's current events. Not because they lack drama, but because of the ludicrous presumption that the constitution and parliament still exist or matter. Suleiman may be anxious to celebrate the success of his "election" campaign, which started around March 14th, 2005 and climaxed over the corpses of his soldiers in Nahr El Bared. But this doesn't change what, years from now, historians will probably see as a successful coup d'etat, Lebanese style. The Lebanese people are so sick and tired of the deadly status quo, they may have convinced themselves that Suleiman is the savior, including those who promote the belief in divine saviors. Sadly, it seems this time the sacrifice spared the savior, leaving the meek to inherit the earth.

Comments

[Jeha]

Time will tell how bad this will prove to be.

Those who claim to be Lebanese Nationalists have deluded themselves into believing that Lebanon matters to the West, other than a means to an end.

Those who serve Syria have deluded themselves into believing that Syria matters to the Persians, other than a means to an end.

We have yet to see what that end actually is. The meek may inherit this land, but much will be asked of them. Let's see how they dance when the tune is played.

[Bad Vilbel]

It's all one big fat joke...

[Dania]

Lebanese brought it on to themselves and though I sympathize with the average folk's frustrations, I hope its a lesson they remember well before voting for an MP or going to a rallye to foolishly cheer a certain leader.

[saed]

Your second paragraph is probably the best description I've read of the current situation and the past 2 years. Excellent.

[Abu Hatem]

I don't think Sulieman has been "running for the position since 2005." He is approved of by the vast majority of the Lebanese people because he defeated al-Qaeda at Nahr al-Bared, and stays out of politics. Michele 'Aoun is the one running from 2005.

[ik]

The law and constitution do matter, although to westerners living in stable countries this may be less clear in the same way that clean air is taken for gratned by those who have it. Law regulates life and, although I agree the constitution is not the best, it is better we all subscribe to the rules of the game in a valiant attempt to avoid chaos. What clearly marks the opposition, and especialyl hezbollah out among the lebanese party, is adherence to law and ethical rules. This is the story fot heir success. For taht matter, it is the story fo the success of america and europe too.

[danny]

Laws, constitution, honour...Does anything matter in the cyclone called Lebanese etiquette? Every day another order from outside, or another "condition" to prove who's macho to their "loyalists" or ilk. No constitution or laws ever mattered to these folk...Both sides are trying to get ready for their own Divine Victories...the country is slowly disolving and vanishing! The HA project is moving according to their master plan! Will this charade never end?????

Stay tuned..

[Fawzan]

Back on December 2 I wrote a comment to the post titled "The Game Is Not Over" in which I said:

"Now a few notes to watch out for next week. If Siniora's Government tables the bill to amend the constitution, and the opposition votes for it, could it not be seen as a confidence vote? Will that not mean that everything that Siniora Government has done since the M8 team left is now legal. Could this not be the gambit?

I don't think this is done yet. I really feel that the M8 will try to scuttle this on the last minute. Let's see how the week develops!"

These guys just hate Sinora more than hell. They see him as embodying all that is not them and they want anything but to legitimize him and the Government. This is not over and will not be over. It will not happen. Not tomorrow, not next week and not next year. Slayman may have to come in through the back door, or M14 may have to do the 50+1. For anyone expecting an election before X-mas, tell Santa I want a rag doll named Bashar...I have the pins!

[External Viewer]

The constitution amendment ploy by the opposition serves 3 aims:
1- reject Suleiman who has warmed up to M14
2- deny the legitimacy of the Saniora cabinet not because of personal hatred, but in order to reject later on (via the new cabinet) all previous decisions
3- continue the void as long as it suits the international stances of syria and iran together and not separately, Lebanon being their common denominator

Today it's the refusal of constitution amendment, tomorrow it might be another trick, but the objectives remain the same.

It's a long road, folks.

[danny]

Josey,

I have that pie sitting idly...One thing is certain in Lebanon that everyone does not mean what they say...Looks like this damned mess is about capitulation. A BIG BRAVO to France and Kouchner for allowing Syria to screw up the two year's revolution and breaking people's resolve...
March 14 has no options left.These HA MFers will constantly lie and lie and lie until Lebanon does not exist. Their end game is that!!!
Here's my suggestion to March 14...50 + 1. Get the old koot in Bkirki to endorse that out loud so that these useless leaders like WJ, Berri, Saad do not hide behind it!!! I said it before and I repeat it seems only DSG has the integrity in this case!!
I'm throwing away the freaking pie.

Merry X-mass to all...We'll drop in again only when there's a prez. GK was right in bidding adieu...

[jay]

Segregation, federalization, or whatever you want to call it seems to me a more plausible solution for this tit-for-tat will never end. All this talk of agreements is a waste for HA is still acquiring land and constructing highways in HA'stan. They will never waver from their self-serving agenda and ideology regardless of the compromises. Jumblatt & Hariri are smoking and inhaling buffoons to believe otherwise.

[Boutros]

It's a vicious circle, on the one hand the majority is willing to give up their claim to 50+1 vote and are willing to amend the constituion though they are not wholeheartedly enamored with the idea but will do so to avoid an open confrontation with M8, and on the flip side of this, the opposition does not want to compromise on dealing with an amendment that MUST GO through the Siniora government...it's a catch 22 here, b/c while both sides say they are willing to compromise on Suleiman, they are not willing to go far enough to reach a deal that will get a president in Baabda...it's ridiculous and pure torture to anyone who is involved in this chaotic process. The problem here is that while M14 made the concession and the decision to not be dragged into a confrontation with M8, they should've realized that amending the constitution would not be good enough since the perceived "illegitimate" governemt must approve said amendment...this thing will require more finetuning and perhaps the hint comes from Gen. Aoun himself that elections were unlikely before the holidays! Go figure, and this saga continues.

[from a famiy in exile]

we are ,>
we worked hard all ower life , we went back to our home town in Lebanon when Lahoud was elected President ,To live in the haven he promesed us at his enoguration speach .........
with several million dollars ,to invest and live in peace ,,,
relatives ,friends,busines persons, all full of intreegs and lyes,and to top it all,, the courts of justice all corrupt,......and the lawyer x 3 x 5 x10...............
we lost a lot of our money.!!!!
and last year's war........... drove us out ,,,,,,,,,,,,,
for how long ?????????

[Fawzan]

Why would you go back and invest "several million dollars"? You did not know that the "relatives, friends, business persons" and lawyers will all be picking at you like a hot cake out of the oven with 20 kids around it?

Yalla, t3eesh w takol ghayra. Remember that only in Lebanon you have wisdom sayings such as: In lam takun Zi2ban Akalatka 'ziaabu. Said with pride no less. 7arbooi is a complement too!

Let's not go there man. This has nothing to do with the political situation. It is an indemmic cultural perversion.

[Lover]

It is really very sad. Unlike America, or any other sane country who has a president in their system, no Lebanese has ever felt genuine loyalty to any of our Presidents since the 1970's - if not ever.

These fallacies, the Taif and Constitution, should be scrapped and replaced by something which is a little bit more representative of what we have today in Lebanon. We are still obliged by laws that sugest a Christian majority, a Sunni minority and Shi'a non-existance.

The Christians should stop being delusional, thinking the muslims are still out there witch-hunting for them to drink their blood and crash in their nice homes. The Sunnis should stop trying to emulate their Arab 'friends' by trying to run the countryall alone. The Shi'a need to start being bussed to different parts of the country and live in mixed villages, towns and cities instead of cramming themselves in Baalbeck, Dahyeh and Southern Lebanon.

We need new and moderate laws. If we are the revolutonaries we claim to be, if we really are fed up with this and want to scream 'Khalas', then attention university students and top university graduates of Lebanon - come together in a very open and publicised meeting, tell them people what problems you want to face, how you will solve these problems in both method and approach then call on everyone to support your asses.

Until we ind a solution for our army, even if that solution comes from illegal weapons trafficking from Russian, Chinese and Italian black markets then be it. Until our government launches different international corporations to fund the country, then we will remain broke. Until there is a Judicial arm of governemnt to interpret the constitution, politicians will remain free to rein in on the people with unconstitutional legislation and policy. The day when we black-mail Iran, Syria, America, France and all other Western and Arab nations alike, we will remain puppets.

I propose we have young, strong, influencial, secular and charismatic leaders who literally go to each president or prime minister of each country asking 'what are you fuckers going to do for me'. They have nothing to give you? Do the same back. Tell them to fuck off and expect their influence in Lebanon to ammount to zero at best of times. Lebanon is a strategic country, we just don't know how to use that to the best of our abilities. Tell Syria we will normalise relations with them and cancel the tribunal if they officially give us Sheba Farms. Set up Pressure groups and committees in Western countries to lobby government and Parliament to push them, who in turn push Israel to release Sheba farms.

Tell the Iranians if they don't agree to sell us arms for our military, then every lebanese soldier and UN troop will be sitting on the border, ports and airport. Tell the Arabs if they don't help us somehow with all their oil money either in promoting businesses or relieving some of our debt, then we will attack their sorry asses politically and through the media. Or we could even threaten to freeze heir assets in the country. Worse still, we could officially request EU membership.

Tell the Americans 'look what the Iranians, Syrians etc' are offering us, show us what you got baby! This will generate competition amongst the nations of who will give us more money, business opportunities etc. Ofcourse they will expect stuff in return. This is not called puppeteering or using us, it is called trade. We can always muster this trade to benefit us first and foremost. Tell the French to help us rebuild or we will find another 'sister' or 'mother' country we can relate to - maybe Syria. You get the drift?

Here is the only catch - - - - - wait for it - - - - - all decisions should be taken unanimously. The best way to do this, i think, is to introduce new legislation in the sense of a new age quota and the ammount of service-time politicians are allowed in the government, parliament etc. Our country is a young one. We should not accept old people dictating our lives for us. we should have an age quota from between 23-38 years for parliament and a bit older for government. Then a limit of 2 terms at any given time with another opportunity to run for a Parliamentary seat in 2 years afte being voted out - get the fresh blood circulating again.

If our politicians today truly and honestly loved the people, then they should give the new generation their chance to do everything better. if not, then we need to have another revolution. Lets call it the 'Rise of Hummous' revolution for the fun of it.

[Fawzan]

Too many holes in your dream Lover. Too many to number here and show, but one that stands out more than all the other is the idea of unanimous decisions. There is no democratic entity on earth that requires that. And the reason is that such an entity will fail. You cannot have unanimity to run a country let alone a family business!! Democracy is the rule of the majority and in true democracies there are mechanisms to protect the rights of the minority.

Did Ta'if really envision a senate in Lebanon? That would be a very welcome change in my mind, if it is structured to balance the powers and give voice to all equally.

Yu are right one one point: The youth should take over. We are trying to build a future with old minds. That will never work. These guys are all tainted by history and they should all be relegated to it. We need fresh voices, fresh visions and a true democracy. But... What we get is a turban-clad Koran-thumping mola who - let's be fair - does more for his people than the state has ever done in all of the history of the country. We get a psycho who wants to be a president at any price. We get a hereditary feudal system enshrined in every fibre of the national collective archetype.

I don't pretend to have the solution. I wish there were folks in the cedar revolution who could have stopped the old guard from taking it over. There wasn't, and they did.

[Bad Vilbel]

I've explained this over and over. The very concept of democracy, elections, etc. is THE OPPOSITE of "unanimous decisions" and governance by "consensus".

Those 2 things are UNDEMOCRATIC for the simple reason that they lead to complete paralysis, as Lebanon has proven over the past 50 years or so.

No democracy in the world uses "unanimous decisions" or "consensus" to govern.

The reason is simple: When you wait until EVERYONE agrees before you move forward (on whatever the issues is), there will ALWAYS be someone who disagrees, and by doing so, has the ability to paralyze the whole thing. This is the very REASON voting was invented.

The only countries in the world where presidents are elected by "unanimous vote" (i.e 100%) are places like Syria, Libya, and North Korea. Even those folks don't claim unanimity. They claim 99% to show that there's always 1% that's allowed to disagree. As ridiculous as that may be, it still goes to show that there is no such thing as making "unanimous decisions". I don't know what planet you come from, Lover. But it ain't Earth.

[JAS]

Lover:

Youth are not known to solve the problems of nations. In fact, statistically the age group you recommend are more likely to be involved in criminal or corrupt activities than older men or women. Think about it…How many times have you called a politician “corrupt” and then referred to a time when he/she was much younger in your allegation?

An American President must be at least 46 years old.
The minimum age to hold office in the House of Representatives is age 25.
The minimum age to hold office in the Senate is age 30.
http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/constitution/constitution.htm

If variety in government is your cup of tea then take a look at American politicians.
The United States Congress consists of a wide range of demographics—which are in many instances different from the majority of the constituency they represent. For example, the electorate did not choose a black Muslim congressman in Minnesota because of his race or creed—he chose to run for the office and was elected based upon his political platform. The same holds true for many other politicians elected to U.S. government offices.
Visit: http://www.congress.org/
Click on: Congressional Directory
Click on the selections under: Congressional Demographics

[fubar]

The minimum age for the US President is 35, not 46.

"No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States."

[JAS]

Lover:

Youth are not known to solve the problems of nations. In fact, statistically the age group you recommend are more likely to be involved in criminal or corrupt activities than older men or women. Think about it…How many times have you called a politician “corrupt” and then referred to a time when he/she was much younger in your allegation?

An American President must be at least 46 years old.
The minimum age to hold office in the House of Representatives is age 25.
The minimum age to hold office in the Senate is age 30.
http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/constitution/constitution.htm

If variety in government is your cup of tea then take a look at American politicians.
The United States Congress consists of a wide range of demographics—which are in many instances different from the majority of the constituency they represent. For example, the electorate did not choose a black Muslim congressman in Minnesota because of his race or creed—he chose to run for the office and was elected based upon his political platform. The same holds true for many other politicians elected to U.S. government offices.
Visit: http://www.congress.org/
Click on: Congressional Directory
Click on the selections under: Congressional Demographics

[JAS]

Thanks for the correction, fubar. I hit the wrong number keys (4 instead of 3, and 6 instead of 5)and didn't notice. Looks like the posting code hit me twice too.

[Tears For Lebanon]

Fear not after todays events Suleiman can put away his suit white or other wise. It looks like the only way for people to get things they want in Lebanon is to blow things up.