Lebanon postponed

It’s Saturday and nothing happened. The election was postponed for the tenth time. Sarkozy backed off on his threats, and denied even making them. Bush’s announcement that he would support a simple majority vote played into the hands of the "opposition’s" conspiracy theorists, and even March 14 distanced itself from it, realizing it has no power to support it to the end. With Berri claiming he will keep calling for elections until Kingdom Come, March 14 remains without a clear plan, leaving some of its members to hint at “drastic” measures. Those measures range from convening the cabinet to pass the amendment resolution to expanding the government by electing extra Shia ministers and replacing Gemayel's vacant seat. Of course, none of the measures will likely take place. In the meantime, there is already talk of Suleiman possibly withdrawing his “candidacy”. With his friends of nine years, Hizbullah and the Syrians, doubting him and obstructing his election, Suleiman is finally getting the message that the presidential election in Lebanon is a 100% Syrian decision, and that his cozying up to March 14 killed his chances.

Aoun, of course, couldn’t be happier. He is counting on Suleiman pulling out to “regain his freedom” and revive his candidacy. His efforts of late, assuming the position of negotiator with impossible demands, did that for him, and bought the Assad regime time in its successful face-off with the largely ineffective international community.

No wonder Michael Young sounded the alarm that Lebanon as we know it is threatened with extinction, and called for a new national pact to prevent the formula being imposed by Hizbullah and Aoun: division of power by thirds among the three sects.

The situation seems unsolvable. March 14’s nomination of Suleiman, seen as a major concession, now seems like a big mistake. With every concession they made, they helped chip away at the constitution. What seemed like a way out at the time, led to another dead end. There aren’t many options left on the table. Now is the time is to create new ones. The question is how? Here's one possibility, though that too depends on parliament convening.  Since all seem to be in agreement over the shape of the new electoral law, I don’t see why not call for early elections and let democracy decide the way out, as opposed to sectarian autocrats and their foreign backers.

Comments

[JoseyWales]

I guess concessions are a bit like threats: valid once if not acted upon.

M14's mistake was to issue concession (after concession) without saying "or else" i.e. elect before Nov 24 or 50%+1 (REALLY) or, now, amend and elect Suleiman by Dec 29 or else we elect our guy etc..

Anyway very difficult to have any sympathy for these bunglers. 50%+1 was their best card and they screwed it up with help by top MORON Sfeir.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

No doubt, Michael Young's article is pioneering. He is absolutely right. I'm sure the "adjustment" of the constitution and of Taef will occur. Peacefully, or through other means.
And even then, it will not be "democratic" by the book. Some say that the Shi'i community had reached the 40% by now.
.

[ghassan karam]

AK, May I recycle the attached article of last week. I believe that its basic message, that Mr. Suleiman should not be elected, is relevant to your thread.

(Obviously, feel free to delete if you judge it to be too long, rambling, irrelevant or for any other reason).

Lebanese majority should rescind the Suleiman nomination
Thursday, 20 December, 2007 @ 7:47 PM

By Ghassan Karam
Special to Ya Libnan
A robust democracy cannot exist unless the society in question exhibits unswerving respect to law and order. Allegiance, under such circumstances, is not to be sworn to individuals but to ideas.

michel suleiman 1126.jpgThis does not mean that laws cannot be changed, of course they can, but it implies that behavior of persons and institutions is circumscribed by clear and unambiguous procedures. The integrity of the process must be preserved otherwise society will be transformed to a “free for all” chaotic existence. It is instructive to recall that Hammurabi’s Code is universally looked upon as one of the most significant events in the rise of civilization.

Based on the above one is forced to conclude that the future of the democratic project in Lebanon is very dim indeed. The Lebanese Constitution is very clear in stating under Article 49 section 3 that
“It is also not possible to elect judges, Grade One civil servants, or their equivalents in all public institutions to the Presidency during their term or office or within two years following the date of their resignation or their leaving office for whatever reason.”

No amount of interpretations/ijtihad will change the clear prohibition on electing General Suleiman to the office of the presidency. The suggestion to amend the constitution in order to allow General Suleiman to become the next president of Lebanon is equally faulty. Article 75 of the constitution is very clear in stating that:”

“The Chamber meeting to elect the President of the Republic is considered an electoral body and not a legislative assembly. It must proceed immediately, without discussion or any other act, to elect the Head of the State.”

It is clear that the current Lebanese constitution does not permit General Suleiman to be legally elected to the Lebanese presidency and the current Chamber of deputies is not allowed to act as a legislative assembly until it elects a president posthaste. If the leadership of March 14 is to succeed in its efforts to elect Mr. Suleiman as the next Lebanese president then it would have in effect conducted a stealth coup and showed its utter disregard to the most sacred idea in civil society. I am convinced that their intentions are not to destroy that which they are attempting to nurture but unfortunately that is bound to be the unintended consequence of their erroneous and misguided policies. A country is much more important than the individual that will rise to its highest office and as a result no rationale can ever be provided to sacrifice principle for an individual. Democracy has no place for the “cult of personality” and no individual is indispensable.

March 14 has a moral duty and an ethical obligation to do the right thing. They need to rescind their nomination of Mr. Suleiman and proceed to elect another nominee as prescribed by the law of the land irrespective of the obfuscation, obstruction and bombast of Hezbollah, its allies and their foreign masters. The Lebanese people demand this and March 14 has no choice but to oblige.

[LebExile]

Settle down everyone, you all seem to have given up and left the March 14 for dead..

do you guys even consider that maybe it is the March 14 are the ones who are purposely keeping the presidency vacant???

The way I see it, the March 14 are benefitting from a void at he top much more than the Opposition!

[danny]

Lebexile,

I concur. I have said it here and @ Across the Bay that at this point intime there is a definite convergence of interests between March 8& 14...They do not want a new prez because with it comes the headache of a new cabinet. They both can hinder the progress of IT. There will not be any prez elected or any action taken by March 14 until this is done. We're almost there. Judges are about to be chosen and the headquarters for the trial agreed to.
I think IT needs another two months to be operational. Once operational and the "murderers" moved out for trial, then we'll see concrete steps by March 14. Until then do not hold your breath. Sometimes it seems Berri and Aoun are in total collusion with March 14 in achieving this goal. No one wants to answer to syrian regime...

[Andre]

Danny,

I am not sure I totally understand your point. The IT is a total certainty now and it is no longer in the hands of Lebanon or M14 to do anything about it. The syrians are obviously scheming to diminish its effectiveness...but everyone knows that it will go on. The bickering among M14 and M8 does not really have a major bearing on IT but it does influence the course of events for the situation in Lebanon long term. I feel as if M14 is caught in a bad situation and cannot extricate itself out of it b/c none of its options are good right now, in addition if this continues M14's position will be further weakened. Everybody is jockeying to protect their interests and get the upper hand in the presidential saga and as such the likelihood of further destabilization is growing. Waiting until March of next year is simply too risky for maintaining the status quo...something has to give.

[Solomon2]

There aren’t many options left on the table. Now is the time is to create new ones.

Syro-Iran-Hezbollah are, as usual, way ahead of you on that score. If they can ignite another conflict and once again succeed in rallying Lebanese "to defend Lebanon" they will, quite simply, entirely supplant the headless Lebanese government and will be able to impose their own will upon the entire country forever.

Will non-Hezb Lebanese make it their task to undermine this New Axis ahead of time, and so prevent such a war from occurring? As Lebanon itself is politically paralyzed, Lebanese expats are well-placed to take the initiative. I don't see when there will be a better time for them to act.

[danny]

Andre,
you are simplifying the IT. It is set to go in name only. If a new cabinet decides to release the arrested culprits before they are transferred or refuse/solw down any request to "extradite" the suspects...How do you suggest that the court can work? In simulation or cyberspace? They will not have the dozen or so people that most likely are under arrest to unravel the crime thread and connect the dots. So there's nothing confusing in saying that until the suspects or people of interest moved out for trial there will be no election!!

[Ace]

"Since all seem to be in agreement over the shape of the new electoral law, I don’t see why not call for early elections and let democracy decide the way out, as opposed to sectarian autocrats and their foreign backers."

Now, where have I heard this? Oh yeah, this is what the so-called 'opposition' has been demanding for a year now. AK - what kind of "Democracy" is Lebanon ever going to have if it can be blackmailed into holding "new" elections whenever the losers insist on being the "winner".

Elections are described in the Constitution and they will be arriving in Lebanon in about 17 months .... what message is it to give in to this "blackmail"?

ghassan - I agree with all that you say until you get to the last line. The problem is that the Lebanese people don't demand it. If M14 felt they had the support(from the Lebanese people) to go to Parliament and elect a President, they would have already done so.

This Hezbollah blackmail thing and intimidation is really working, and it's working because the "Lebanese people" are scared to death of them and allow these threats to win.

[Fawzan]

Something is not right about this whole picture folks. The US and France are backing away from their hard statements in the past few days. Why? What are we missing? Are they really fumbling or is there a method to this?

I can't accept that HA and Kasr al-Muhajerine has out manouvered the Whitehouse and the Elysee!

[Bad Vilbel]

Great post AK, except for that last comment. As already mentioned by others: Giving in to having early elections now would be once again sending the wrong message. Just like conceding on Suleiman and amending the constitution was a big mistake (something that I pointed out way back when, in line with Ghassan's article).
You now seem to be following the "let's just get it over with any way possible" approach, with your early election idea.
The day M14 came forth with the Suleiman idea, and amending the constitution, they played directly into the hands of the opposition and lost all moral high ground with regards to who upholds the constitution and who doesn't. Early elections is just one more step towards complete anarchy and the notion that there are no rules, and if you don't like the outcome of the democratic process, you can just block it until the other side gives in. That's complete bullshit, and we're NEVER going to have anything more than a complete failure of a state if we continue down these paths.

Ace is absolutely right: The Hezbollah blackmail is working and it's working because the Lebanese are scared and allowing themselves to be bullied.

Sadly, I don't see that changing. Not with an apathetic population, and an entirely incompetent March 14 leadership.

[Fawzan]

Just a wild thought: How long does it take a ship to go from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean? Or for that matter from France to the Levant?

[Jeha]

Patience; this is a marathon, not a race. Not that M14 is "winning", but M8 and Syria are unlikely to be able to come back to things the way they were. Entropy always increases, and what was broken cannot be mended.

We should expect a lingering Syrian influence over Lebanon, and we cannot expect the lambs of the past to turn into the lions we need. We are in a transition phase, and provided Bashar does not smarten up, we will likely get out of this one. Not of our merit, of course...

[Samsam]

if by now you cannot realize that there is no "hope" but to rid ourselves of what is the curse of having to choose between bad and worse then please stop wasting your time blogging and take up cooking as a time consumer. i hate to be so frank but if you think that any of these pesudo-leaders are going to provide us with a viable and long term solution then you are as perceptive as a goldfish...... please reject confessionalism and then we will talk...

[danny]

Ace,

Right on.

Jeha,
Always analytical. You are right. HA is struggling to regain the total control they had over what was called "Lebanon". Marathon is the way it was described by Jumblat and Geagea two years ago. However, people have short attention spans. We have a quandry: Those on the outside would like an immediate change as if Lebanon was Canada or France? Those living in Lebanon are super tired and scared and apathetic (see the orangeheads) to push harder (the civil war memories are fresh and HA saroukh intimidating).
Fawzan,

I could not agree more. These leaders are not total idiots (with all due respect to some who think so on this post). They have not reached the positions of the most poweful nations on earth by just BS ing.

One thing I do not agree with is that they have backtracked. I think all these are the preamble to going to UN to get some sanctions against Syria that have teeth. Trust me. An impoverished country like Syria will choke if Turkey cuts off their supply and shipping lines are restricted...and Saudis and their frat brothers totally cut Syria off economically.

Maybe Syria will trade with Israel then???

[Solomon2]

"provided Bashar does not smarten up"

Bashar IS smart, and those of you who don't think so are the fools. Bashar knows how to yield in words or deeds just enough to forestall opposition without yielding on the substance of power. Every time somebody SAYS they've "lost patience with Asad" AND NOTHING MORE is more evidence that they've decided to continue to be patient.

By doing nothing you have yielded initiative to the other side. Therefore, in my opinion your patience means doom will come a bit more slowly, but doom will assuredly come nonetheless. If you stand up for Lebanon your chances for ultimate success will be greater. At the very least you can be proud of yourselves rather than ashamed.