Last Chance Monday and March 14's secret plan

Monday December 17th is the Assad regime's last chance to let Lebanon elect a president, before March 14 reportedly starts implementing a "secret plan" under the blessing of the international community. I don’t know what that plan entails, so I will start with the negotiations currently under way between France and Syria. According to al-Hayat, Syria has conveyed its demands (!), which are: a government with a blocking third for Syria's allies, and agreement on the identity of the next army commander as well as the head of General Security. Of course, "agreement" means Syria wants its own candidates chosen for the positions. March 14 is reportedly still rejecting any discussion of the cabinet before a president is elected, rightly arguing that such decision are taken by the president in consultation with parliament.

Monday is seen as a turning point by March 14, and a "last chance" by the international community. The Russians are intervening with the Iranians, the Turks with the Syrians, and the French are giving Assad until Monday to come around. Or so we are told.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the verbal war continues unabated, specifically between Nabih Berri and Saad Hariri, who is said to have (finally) grown sick of the speaker's flip flopping.  It would be interesting, if not impossible, to see March 14 deputies and their counterparts in the other camp coming together to elect a president, given the bad blood that's flowing through the airwaves.

Finally, David Welch's surprise visit to Beirut sent a strong signal that the US will strongly support any decision by the parliament's majority. Welch said his country will stand by those who represent the legitimate institutions and urged Lebanese MPs to do their job and elect a president as soon as possible. Welch described Monday as a "historic day". It is not clear whether Welch was referring to parliament convening, or March 14's secret plan. 

Comments

[LebExile]

Very interesting post AK.. there is however one thing to remember, Berri is not flip flopping... he is simply following orders... like you have mentioned repeatedly - or was it somewhere else...

Step 1. make an impossible demand,
if it gets accepted by the majority - then,
goto step 1
else
do while plan not accepted
threaten more violence
end do
goto step 1
end if

/*** please note you will never reach step 2 **/
Step 2: convene parliament and vote in a new president

as you can see - we are in an infinite loop here!!!

[danny]

A blast of hot air from all parts of the world or some stiffening of the jelly backbone of March 14???

[Joseywales]

AK, I think you mean Dec 17 not Dec 24 (AlSharq), i.e tomorrow.

Also about time, though I am not holding my breath for anything beyond further dratt-3al-blatt.

What could they credibly do?

--Meet and say to the opp, if you come we amend and elect Suleiman, if not we'll elect Lahoud/Harb/X??

--Elect one of their guys with 50%+1 and promise he will step down as soon as the law is amended and Suleiman is electable?

--Say Saniora gvmnt will stay low-key (can it possibly be lower key) for another 2/3 days to elect Suleiman. Barring that, Sanioura will start governing aggressively and issuing orders and appts. the opp. won't like.

Will those with the backbone of a jellyfish and less imagination than an worn out slipper do anything, let anything bold?

Also, when will people and pols stand up against all these stupid SECRET plans. Sfeir's secret list, Aoun's secret negociations, and M14's secret plan.

(Remember the Cairo secret accord that our PMs approved in 69 WITHOUT knowing its content?)

Is this a fucking democratic republic or Animal House Dean Wormer putting the animals of the Delta fraternity on "Double Secret Probation"?

[AK]

oops, yes, Dec 17. Thanks Josey.

[Fawzan]

Well something is happening. I don't know what, but I doubt that just because the "Evil" Americans and the French say you need to do something doesn't mean that HA will comply. As a matter of fact I think they are ready for this one too.

BTW, I don't know if you remember but a few weeks back there was some double speak about wheather HA will hit Israel if Israel hits Iran. I believe this is the source of the HA shake-up. AK, please post something about this since I believe it will be a very significant change in HA albeit not to the better.

[External Viewer]

The only credible plan that M14 should come up with, is one that involves ground activity and not words that fly through the air. We should not follow Ghandi. Times have changed.

I cannot but draw a parallel between HA and the PLO. Both formed a state stronger than our State. The PLO was not uprooted except by the Israelis. The same fate will await HA and until then we will stay at the mercy of the syrians and iranians and their dogs of war.

[Bad Vilbel]

I share Josey's skepticism here. There sure seems to be a lot of "tougher" talk, over the last few days, coming from M14. No longer are they putting consensus and compromise at the fore. I'm now hearing a slightly more threatening posture (about time too!): "Come elect Suleiman with us or else we'll go at it alone."

But....I'm not holding my breath.

[Bad Vilbel]

I share Josey's skepticism here. There sure seems to be a lot of "tougher" talk, over the last few days, coming from M14. No longer are they putting consensus and compromise at the fore. I'm now hearing a slightly more threatening posture (about time too!): "Come elect Suleiman with us or else we'll go at it alone."

But....I'm not holding my breath.

[Fawzan]

As the day progresses, the threats are mounting from both sides with the latest being that of Wahhab with a threat to unleach the rabbid masses.

My thoughts are that M14 will move on to exercise the dual authority that they now hold in the Government.

[marillionlb]

I still do not see M14 doing anything in order to salvage what is left of the Cedar Revolution. The way they are now, not only endorsing but pushing for Suleiman to get to that cursed seat is not encouraging. even that D. head in his robe (z batrak) has not showed any signs of approving a majority vote. Too bad people had to, yet again, die in vain.

[Andre]

What a Frickin' mess! Both M14 and M8 are destroying what is left of the presidency and no one cares...we might as well accept the fact that IF and WHEN a new president gets elected he will be much weakened by this process that it won't matter what he does or says. Congratulations to our honorable politicians in undermining the presidency....after all of this sh*t I wonder if Suleiman or anyone else with some brains will want that assignment when in fact it has been stripped of any REAL significance anymore.

[Bad Vilbel]

Well, I guess today came and went with a whimper, not a bang. Exactly as I expected.

I wonder what happened to all the "bigger threats" March 14 was bandying this time around. "Yes! This time we mean it!" AHAHAHA!

And now i see a piece on Naharnet where Boutros Harb, yet another clown who some of you thought would be a good president, rambling on about threats to naturalize the Palestinians at the expense of the Christians. Are we STILL hung up on this crap? THESE are the people who are supposed to lead Lebanon into the new era of the Cedar Revolution? By recyling the SAME old tired conspiracies of the 1970s? Give me a fuckin break!

[Bad Vilbel]

Oh yes, let me also comment on the latest gem from Lebanon.
Apparently, the MPs and their patrons have decided that no constitutional amendment is needed, period. The logic goes something like this: That law was in place to insure continuity. Since we have a vacuum today, that law no longer applies. *pauses*

What? Come again?

That's like saying "The speed limit exists to prevent motorists from going too fast. But once you've gone ahead and broken the speed limit anyway, that law no longer applies to you."

What?????? Seriously??????

So, let me get this straight. Now that we have a vaccum, the very law that dictates how to fill said vaccum no longer applies. I see. So....I wonder what other parts of the constitution no longer apply. Oh wait...What constitution?

[Andre]

I wish Berry would stop issuing statements about supposed future election dates and sorry excuses such as "we need more time to reach consensus". No one is being fooled by this tactic anymore and it only serves to show what a joke the parliament has become! It would be better to come out and say "until a later date, once the protagonists outside of this country decide among themselves who the next president will be (i,e everyone but the lebanese). At least it would be an honest statement. There is a saying that goes "You can fool some people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all the time!" What a joke this process has become.

[marillionlb]

Guys still looking for a consensus president?
This is exactly what is wrong with Lebanon. The constitution of your contry states that the President is ELECTED!!!!!!. Screw them all(Berri, Aoun, Wahab, Hizb Tizi...etc). take session anywhere and get on with it. And please do not elect Boutros Harb, or that other idiot Ghanem.