From Beirut to the Beltway

Sarkozy cuts Assad, US senators embrace him

On Sunday, Nicolas Sarkozy announced that he is ending his disastrous flirtation with Bashar Assad "until we have proof of Syrian willingness to let Lebanon appoint a president by consensus".

Before you shed tears over wasted time, and the use of the expression "appointed a president by consensus", remember the saying: God never closes a door without opening a window somewhere. This holiday season, two US Senators opened that window for Assad. Arlen Specter and Patrick Kennedy paid a visit to Bashar on Saturday to help ease his newfound isolation. They found him "ready for peace".

And here's how Syria read it:

A Syrian government newspaper urged Sunday the United States to work seriously for peace in the region.

"What is the problem of the U.S. Administration with Syria so long as U.S. delegations, Republicans and Democrats, have not stopped visiting Damascus and confirming the importance of its role in solving the region's problems?" Al-Baath, the ruling party newspaper, said in an editorial.

"Where is the courage and daring that Bush urged all parties to display to achieve peace in the Middle East?" it added. (Naharnet)

But what do we, the fools who think murderers shouldn't be rewarded with undeserved recognition, know anyway? Damascus, after all, will be the "cultural capital" of the Arab world in 2008. On January 28th, our own Fairuz will celebrate Syrian culture, for the first time in 20 years. 

American linguist and leftist intellectual Noam Chomsky, Czech writer Milan Kundera and Lebanon's famed songstress Fairuz are among the personalities coming to Syria as Damascus assumes the cultural mantle from Algiers.

But not everyone welcomes the planned events, with Syrian writer Ibrahim Haj Abdi calling them "ephemeral cultural festivities."

"Syrian intellectuals might have believed these promises (by the organizers) if only they had been accompanied by efforts to free one of the country's most important intellectuals, Michel Kilo," he wrote in Sunday's pan-Arab daily newspaper Al-Hayat, published in London.

Another Syrian novelist writing in Al-Hayat also slammed the organizers of the year's festivities. "My experience with the organizers quickly dismissed any hope... of seeing it revive the role of culture that has been destroyed over decades" in Syrian society, wrote Samar Yazbek. (Naharnet)

Happy new year.

Holiday celebrations in Lebanon

If you're bored this holiday season, watch Lebanese politics. You got the parliament speaker refusing to accept a proposal by the government to amend the constitution, on grounds the cabinet is illegitimate after the resignation of Shia ministers. You got Berri's people calling the majority MPs and their leader "midgets" who have no right to attack their "masters and the patriots who liberated the land".  You also got a Maronite bishop calling Aoun a "Hizbullah tool", an Shia MP Amal official telling the bishop to "shut up", and a foreign-funded fundamentalist militia (guess which one) wanting to prosecute the government and the parliament majority on charges of "high treason".

The commotion started when the Siniora government passed a draft law to amend the constitution (reportedly, the move was to preempt any future claims of unconstitutionality by Aoun MPs should Suleiman be elected president without cabinet approval). All that forced Walid Jumblatt to get off the crucifix and lash out at liberation-obsessed Aoun and at "silly attempts by some in the international community to reach a settlement with the oppressive Syrian regime…" (If you followed the link, the rest of the quote from al-Khaymah was denied by Jumblatt).

And just when you started to believe in Santa Claus and in Aoun being in charge of "negotiations" on behalf of the opposition (and has the conditions in his pocket), pro-Syrian Sunni fundamentalist Fathi Yakan meets with Hassan Nasrallah and announces the opposition's conditions. Nothing new: a national unity government, prior agreement on the identity of the next army chief, who should be an "anti-Zionist pro-Arab Lebanese patriot", and a timeline to amend the electoral law and hold elections.

International efforts to mediate have taken a break, as many of us did, even though Lebanese politicians didn't and continue to exchange insults and predict mayhem. Syrian "media" is even predicting the crisis will continue until the 2009 parliamentary elections. That's days after it predicted civil war. I will spare you a strange report in al-Seyassah saying that the EU and the US will push for Samir Geagea as president. Someone ate too much ham this Christmas. However, I will leave you with this report that appeared in Kuwait's al-Watan. According to the daily, a Qatari delegate arrived in Beirut on a secret mission, during which he offered Walid Jumblatt a "grant of $10 million" to accept Qatar's mediation between him and  Aoun. Walid Jumblatt reportedly did not say yes or no. He just smiled. Judging from Jumblatt's latest attack on Aoun, I will assume that was a no.

A Siniora christmas

I have no time to post, but how about this for a Christmas present. It might not be to the liking of many of us, who would have preferred a different outcome. It certainly will not appeal to the grinches who keep stealing Lebanon’s holidays. But oh well, Merry Christmas everyone. And Happy Adha too.

Prime Minister Fouad Saniora's Government on Monday adopted a constitutional amendment bill to allow the election of army commander Gen. Michel Suleiman president. The government also adopted a motion calling for an extraordinary legislative session by parliament as of January 1, to tackle the amendment bill.

The bill amends the third clause of article 49 of the constitution, which bans the election of senior public employees for president.

The house goes into a legislative recess for nearly three months as of Dec. 31, but retains its right to elect a new head of state in light of the persisting presidential void since Nov. 24.

The move by the Saniora Government is apparently aimed at cornering Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri into either accepting the constitutional amendment and calling the house to tackle and ratify it, or rejecting the approach and, therefore, appearing as leading an effort to foil Suleiman's election. (Naharnet)

Lebanon postponed

It’s Saturday and nothing happened. The election was postponed for the tenth time. Sarkozy backed off on his threats, and denied even making them. Bush’s announcement that he would support a simple majority vote played into the hands of the "opposition’s" conspiracy theorists, and even March 14 distanced itself from it, realizing it has no power to support it to the end. With Berri claiming he will keep calling for elections until Kingdom Come, March 14 remains without a clear plan, leaving some of its members to hint at “drastic” measures. Those measures range from convening the cabinet to pass the amendment resolution to expanding the government by electing extra Shia ministers and replacing Gemayel's vacant seat. Of course, none of the measures will likely take place. In the meantime, there is already talk of Suleiman possibly withdrawing his “candidacy”. With his friends of nine years, Hizbullah and the Syrians, doubting him and obstructing his election, Suleiman is finally getting the message that the presidential election in Lebanon is a 100% Syrian decision, and that his cozying up to March 14 killed his chances.

Aoun, of course, couldn’t be happier. He is counting on Suleiman pulling out to “regain his freedom” and revive his candidacy. His efforts of late, assuming the position of negotiator with impossible demands, did that for him, and bought the Assad regime time in its successful face-off with the largely ineffective international community.

No wonder Michael Young sounded the alarm that Lebanon as we know it is threatened with extinction, and called for a new national pact to prevent the formula being imposed by Hizbullah and Aoun: division of power by thirds among the three sects.

The situation seems unsolvable. March 14’s nomination of Suleiman, seen as a major concession, now seems like a big mistake. With every concession they made, they helped chip away at the constitution. What seemed like a way out at the time, led to another dead end. There aren’t many options left on the table. Now is the time is to create new ones. The question is how? Here's one possibility, though that too depends on parliament convening.  Since all seem to be in agreement over the shape of the new electoral law, I don’t see why not call for early elections and let democracy decide the way out, as opposed to sectarian autocrats and their foreign backers.

Bush has no patience for Bashar

I'm just going to paste this one without commentary. Blame my cold, or my own patience running out.

US President George W. Bush on Thursday ruled out direct talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, saying his "patience ran out" on the Syrian leader "a long time ago."

"So if he's listening, he doesn't need a phone call, he knows exactly what my position is," Bush said at a year-end press conference, after being asked whether he would talk to Assad to work on ending Lebanon's political crisis.

"My patience ran out on President Assad a long time ago, and the reason why is because he houses Hamas, he facilitates Hezbollah, suiciders go from his country into Iraq and he destabilizes Lebanon," said Bush.

The president said he was particularly vexed by what he said were Syria's continued alleged efforts to foment instability in Lebanon, despite having withdrawn troops from there in April 2005.

"It is very important that Lebanon's democracy succeed," Bush said.

"I worked with the French to get Syria out of Lebanon, and Syria needs to stay out of Lebanon. Syria needs to let the process in Lebanon work."...

"I appreciate the sides trying to work on a common ground for a president, but if they can't come for agreement, then the world ought to say this: that the March 14th coalition can run their candidate in their parliament, majority- plus one ought to determine who the president is, and when that happens, the world ought to embrace the president."

Sarkozy gives Assad one more chance, Rice to bewitch opposition

Sarkozy has threatened to reveal all if Assad does not translate his promises into actions, and Condoleezza Rice is rumored to be planning a surprise visit to Beirut to "speed up the election".

Forgive this blogger for being cynical, but what can Rice do that Kouchner and others like him didn’t try two hundred times already. What magic wand does she own that only works in Lebanon?

As for Sarkozy, he told a select group of journalists today that his patience is running thin with Assad, whom he talked to three times, knowing that no one else is talking to him. He said he told Assad he would agree to talk about the rights of the Lebanese parliament’s minority only after he allows the presidential election to take place. Assad reportedly has until Saturday to prove himself to Sarkozy. In the case where Assad fails Sarko again, the French president will “get honest”.

Yes, Sarkozy will tell all. Everything the world already knows will become common knowledge again, after Sarkozy learns it for the hundredth time. Assad must be shaking with terror!

One person who perhaps realized how useless Sarkozy and Rice are as politicians, is Walid Jumblatt. The man who once went to the US to ask for regime change next door, and a second time to ask about what’s taking the international tribunal so long, has dramatically softened his anti-Syrian and anti-Persian rhetoric, and is beginning to sound like a Buddhist Monk.

More than three years ago, three men got together and decided it was time to end the Syrian occupation of Lebanon. Those three men were Walid Jumblatt, Rafik Hariri and Patriarch Sfeir. The world gave them a resolution but didn’t know how to implement it. We lost one of them to murder, and the other two are now living somewhere between fear and compromise. We are watching today the outcome of this abject international failure to stand up to thugs and criminals.

Bashar negotiating on behalf of "opposition"

Aoun may think the list of demands is in his "pocket", but the truth of the matter nobody cares what Aoun thinks or has in his pockets. The person "negotiating" with the Lebanese parliament's majority is Syrian President Bashar Assad through the French. Of course, Assad delivers talk to Sarkozy and his folks, but terror and threats to March 14.

On Sunday, when pressure supposedly mounted on the regime to act before "last-chance-Monday", Sarkozy placed another call to Assad, during which the latter demanded a Lebanese government where his allies have veto power.

Monday passed, the session was postponed, despite a strange last-minute compromise to elect Suleiman without a constitutional amendment. March 14 went to the session thinking the impossible could happen, to then find Berri accusing Hariri of violating an agreement on the makeup of the cabinet giving the "opposition" the blocking vote. Hariri, who has allowed his people wage verbal war against Berri's people, reportedly denied the agreement had taken place, and later, Kouchner confirmed that Berri made it all up to justify not holding a session.

March 14's secret plan that some reports talked about did not see the light. It was replaced by continued French mediation between them and Assad. Sarkozy's threat did not translate into anything of consequence. Instead we got a joint statement signed by France, the US, Saudi Arabia and the EU urging unconditional elections in Lebanon, while the regime is still being engaged without any form of real pressure.

The Assad regime's lackeys, meanwhile, continue threatening March 14 with murder. On Sunday, former minister Wiam Wahab predicted that David Welch (who had just concluded a visit to Beirut) will not be able to protect the parliament's majority or their homes if they decide to elect a president through a simple majority. In a sign that the regime could not care less about Suleiman's candidacy, Wahab hinted that Aoun could be elected president in the spring, and threatened to unleash the opposition's "public" on March 14.

Survey: Lebanese media lack objectivity

While we wait for Rice and Sarkozy to issue their much anticipated statement on the Lebanese presidential election, check out this report from Now Lebanon on the lack of objectivity in Lebanese media.

While there's nothing groundbreaking in this report, I was most amused by how OTV's news director justified his station's obsession with Aoun.

But Jean Aziz, news manager at OTV, defended the channel’s heavy coverage of Aoun, telling NOW Lebanon, “We work with news as news and reality as reality. We have one criterion to deal with the news: how applicable it is to the truth.”

Citing France as an example, Aziz said that OTV’s philosophy follows the example of Western media and its “give the audience what it wants” approach to the news. He argued that other channels give certain “less popular” personalities the same exposure as those who enjoy broader public support. Aziz contended that OTV deals with personalities “according to their size, weight and influence,” evidently reflecting the FPM’s belief that Aoun and the opposition, as opposed to March 14, represent the true majority in Lebanon.

According to a study cited by the report, LBC is the second most "neutral" station in Lebanon (after ANB). The least objective are Hizbullah's al-Manar, New TV, OTV and NBN – all pro-"opposition".

Future TV is trying, through its new Future News channel, to appear more balanced. Having watched a couple of its newscasts, and noting that the same people who ran its news department are running the current channel's content, I don't see that happening any time soon.

It's too bad. Lebanon could be a much better country if the media broke from the "follow the leader" mentality.

Last Chance Monday and March 14's secret plan

Monday December 17th is the Assad regime's last chance to let Lebanon elect a president, before March 14 reportedly starts implementing a "secret plan" under the blessing of the international community. I don’t know what that plan entails, so I will start with the negotiations currently under way between France and Syria. According to al-Hayat, Syria has conveyed its demands (!), which are: a government with a blocking third for Syria's allies, and agreement on the identity of the next army commander as well as the head of General Security. Of course, "agreement" means Syria wants its own candidates chosen for the positions. March 14 is reportedly still rejecting any discussion of the cabinet before a president is elected, rightly arguing that such decision are taken by the president in consultation with parliament.

Monday is seen as a turning point by March 14, and a "last chance" by the international community. The Russians are intervening with the Iranians, the Turks with the Syrians, and the French are giving Assad until Monday to come around. Or so we are told.

Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the verbal war continues unabated, specifically between Nabih Berri and Saad Hariri, who is said to have (finally) grown sick of the speaker's flip flopping.  It would be interesting, if not impossible, to see March 14 deputies and their counterparts in the other camp coming together to elect a president, given the bad blood that's flowing through the airwaves.

Finally, David Welch's surprise visit to Beirut sent a strong signal that the US will strongly support any decision by the parliament's majority. Welch said his country will stand by those who represent the legitimate institutions and urged Lebanese MPs to do their job and elect a president as soon as possible. Welch described Monday as a "historic day". It is not clear whether Welch was referring to parliament convening, or March 14's secret plan. 

One last chance?

March 14 has discovered that Speaker Nabih Berri is unqualified for negotiations, and French President Nicolas Sarkozy is beginning to wonder whether he was wrong to have put faith in the Assad regime.

Friday ended with verbal warfare between Berri and Saad Hariri, and Sarkozy saying Monday is Lebanon's “last chance” to elect a president. And I think he threatened to cut off "those (who) would take the risk of killing off that chance". As if "those" care.

The day had begun with a funeral, and the news that Aoun is put in charge of “dialogue” with the parliament’s majority, which is the Assad regime’s way of plunging the country’s into vacuum. For it’s either Aoun’s folly, or Hizbullah's. 

The sad thing is, all the talk of “action” by March 14 dissipated after the assassination. We are now left with useless statements and passive rejection. 

If you’re wondering what the cat did with lone presidential candidate Suleiman’s tongue, join the club. We did hear him yesterday though, when he told slain Hajj’s family that there are hundreds like their son willing to fill in his shoes.

Suleiman’s improvised (and insensitive) speech is, of course, meaningless. The Lebanese army is not capable of even acknowledging the existence of the other enemy. Many like Hajj died in Nahr El Bared, and all they got from Suleiman was silence on the identity of their killers. Wasn’t it Hajj who sat there near Suleiman’s other generals covering up for the culprits?

Hajj’s assassination should have shown Suleiman the futility of pretending something didn’t exist. The big lie that he told about the Assad regime’s involvement in Nahr El Bared did not make the country safer, or bring him closer to the presidency.

Sadly, even March 14 did not see the end of the road they took. The other big lie they lived for over two years about Nabih Berri did not save the country or make it safer. For that same reason, their decision to back Suleiman was yet another exercise in delusion, and proof that, as Michael Young said, they lack imagination. Time has never been on their side, yet they let their opponents buy it all the time.  Now that they’re out of it (time), I cannot but marvel at the continuation of their stupid decision to never take risks.

But then, to have imagination and take risks, you have to be and act free.