Aoun and Suleiman's path to Baabda

There should be no doubt in anybody's mind that Michel Aoun is finishing what Bashar Assad started when he sidelined, then killed Rafik Hariri. Post-Taef Lebanon was meant to be a Syrian satellite, but when it appeared that Hariri and potentially the council of ministers—the land's executive authority—were going into a different orbit, the decision came to kill the former prime minister and weaken the country's main institution.

When Aoun--and through him Hizbullah and the Assad regime—declares he wants a consensus prime minister from outside March 14 and the Future movement, he's essentially carrying the Assad banner: Lebanon is not allowed to have an independent executive authority, with a powerful Sunni prime minister.

A powerful Sunni prime minister in Lebanon was always the Alawite regime's worst nightmare. The regime fought Hariri tooth and nail since the start by creating every imaginable obstruction when he was prime minister. The system of checks and balances the regime had in the country meant that Hariri would never be allowed to succeed in rebuilding the country (that's not to say Hariri was faultless). The Syrians played the Christians against him and succeeded—we all remember how even LBC turned into an anti-Hariri tool when Franjieh controlled its news agenda.  And they played the other Sunnis, especially the extremist elements, including al-Ahbash and other fundamentalist groups that were farmed in the country by the mukhabarat.

After March 14th 2005, the Assad regime brought Aoun back. Aoun, an insane man with illusions of grandeur, was the perfect antidote to the short-lived March 14th spirit. The March 14 alliance was strong as long as the Christians were united. The Sunnis alone, after the Hariri assassination, could not pull it off alone, and they didn't.

Today, Aoun is demanding an interim presidency until a new parliament is elected, an agreement over the identity of the next army commander, and a future cabinet that gives him, Hizbullah and Syria representation that is proportional to that of the parliament after the assassination of some of its March 14 members. Aoun claims that his demands are to restore lost Christian rights, but in truth Christian privileges are hardly regained by rejecting the Taef agreement and with a cabinet that is controlled by a foreign power that has killed and maimed Christians. Sadly, Aoun has easily slipped into the role of the ultimate tool to destroy Christians he doesn't represent anyway.

The tragic mistake the French committed in Lebanon was turning Aoun into a kingmaker, thinking this would serve as a consolation prize for the aspiring president. The former general had suffered a considerable defeat in the Metn by-election after losing the Maronite vote. Despite that, Sarkzoy and Kouchner thought they were doing the country a favor by pushing Hariri to meet with Aoun, and offering the latter a greater say in the identity of the president, at the expense of the parliament's majority and the constitution. Today, Kouchner is reportedly back in Beirut to mediate between Aoun and March 14, and to offer Aoun guarantees he doesn't deserve.

Hizbullah and the Assad regime, meanwhile, are enjoying the show. With Sarkozy constantly phoning Assad about Lebanon, and the US at least unwilling to deal with the dictator next door, the regime and its allies look set to maximize their gains.

Amid all that, one wonders what the army commander must think. After reportedly rejecting Aoun's conditions, he found himself rejected by the very forces that supposedly wanted him president, after it became clear Hizbullah only expected him to fulfill a limited function, and not become a president for six years, as March 14 offered him. With parliament paralysed, and the possibility of an election this week unlikely, Suleiman may find himself flirting with the idea of reaching Baabda via other, less democratic means. He may even find a few takers.  After that, Lebanon's future will no longer belong to Aoun or March 14. The country will be at the mercy of an army general free of political commitments, and with an agenda of his own that is not necessarily Lebanese.

Comments

[fubar]

You are predicting a military takeover now. Hmmmm....

Thinking about what led M14 to propose this "made in Lebanon" Suleiman presidency, there is only one answer. M14 could not pull together the 50%+1 needed to vote. Specifically, some M14 parlimentarians were not willing to vote the 50%+1 without the 2/3 quorum. So without the 2/3 quorum, M14 was screwed, no vote and no president. M14 was squeezed from within and that is not good. Thanks go to the Patriarch.

Whether M14 ever expected M8 to take the offer is disputable but it is an offer and perhaps will be viewed as generous enough to convince the reluctant M14 parlimentarians that there is never going to be a 2/3 quorum so the only options are 50%+1 for quorum and vote or complete surrender.

Unfortunately, in the process, M14 has surrendered the one card which they had faithfully held all this time, observance of the rule of law - the Constitution. By suggesting and advocating for a Constitutional amendment now when the parliament is solely an electoral body, M14 has cut its own legs out from under itself. It is difficult to shield yourself with cheese cloth and there are some things you can never get back once you give them away.

"With Sarkozy constantly phoning Assad about Lebanon, and the US at least unwilling to deal with the dictator next door, the regime and its allies look set to maximize their gains."

Not sure what you mean by "the US at least unwilling to deal with the dictator next door", but is it not enough that the US Ambassador has to carry water for this "made in Lebanon" proposal and justify how this Constitutional amendment is not like all the others. Perhaps you would like sheet turn down service and boot polishing as well. Get in line.

Oh, and AK, you forgot to mention Ashton's frequent calls to Tehran. Just saying...

[Bad Vilbel]

Fubar,

Agreed 100% with your first 2 paragraphs. That is exactly what I've said as well.

[Fawzan]

Well it sure feels like a 50+1 is closer today than it was last month. The whole world has seen a willing M14 compromising as best they can and to the dismay of many. Now if they were to vote in Slayman with 50+1, I wonder who would object and how?

Looks to me like the M14 are smarter than many here think. This is a tough chess game and so far I like what I see.

[External Viewer]

the 50+1 option in favor of suleiman sounds like a good plan that will curb aoun and hizz while elevating the credentials of M14.

[R]

How ?

[JoseyWales]

Ex V and Fawzan,

You forget that Sleiman cannot be elected by 50% + 1 BEFORE a const. amend, requiring 2/3 quorum and vote (for real).

The Sleiman gambit was also, I think, a way for M14 to tilt the army their way, for the aftermath. A very needed tactic given the continuous erosion of their position.

No, no Sleiman at 50%+1. With no agreement, at a DUBIOUS best, they elect someone else and give Sleiman promises and the Defense or Interior portfolio.

In reality though, 50% + 1 is very very DEAD (kudos to Sfeir and his bishops, who now woke up from their coma and are very concerned).

[danny]

I think the nomination of Sleiman has achieved some of its desired goals:

1. Expose the true agenda of HA/Syria/Iran...that they do not want the rebuilding of the institutions of Lebanon. PERIOD!

2. Aoun's medical condition...I think "ashton" is bringing in aouny's special meds from Paris.

3. Free the way for a 50+1. It remains to be seen if they will have enough votes. Equations change in Lebanon every day! So I do not believe that those who rejected the 50+1 without 2/3 quorum will be held to their "words"…

I think time for the bazaar is over. March 14th has been going to painful lengths in “apologizing” for the amendment to the constitution. The options are all out. We are almost there. The previous excuse for the delay by March 8 was that they were negotiating for a “tawafoki” president. Well??????

[naja]

Brilliant post, AK, and a very troubling one at that. Events in the past have proved that, underneath the quiet exterior, Suleiman is not the kind of man you steer away from his objectives, and the seat is now firmly in his sights. Anyone in Beirut will tell you that the military presence in the capital, despite the lowered security threats lately, has been quite extraordinary. Reports speak of thousands of army personnel being transfered from the South into Beirut, heavily manned strategic positions and checkpoints galore, so much so that one of my colleagues exclaimed that this had all the makings of a coup.

There's talk of Suleiman having committed to 1701 and 1559. This secured the seat for him, in theory. If that's the case that would explain the opposition's surprisingly lukewarm reaction to his nomination and, indeed, its latest obstructions, as well as their demand for "guarantees". In fact, such a commitment would lead the West to turn a blind eye to a military takeover.

[External Viewer]

If the opposition stalls and refuses suleiman for whatever bogus reason,then there are 2 options, either one being a tour de force, namely 50+1 or a coup d'état. Both of these are certain to spark something big. That will surely break the stalemate.

[Solomon2]

"Suleiman may find himself flirting with the idea of reaching Baabda via other, less democratic means. He may even find a few takers."

The same choice was faced by Georges Boulanger over a century ago:

"When Boulanger was about to be overwhelmingly elected Deputy on a national ticket, an aide routinely asked him: "Will you sleep in the Elysée, or will you have the Chamber of Deputies invaded?" "Are you mad?" Boulanger replied." [James Harding]

Thus Boulanger chose to spend the night with his mistress instead of leading a popular coup. Vive la France!

Of course, France wasn't threatened by the yoke of another country the way Lebanon is today. So maybe Suleiman's choice will be different.

[Bad Vilbel]

Are you guys on crack? There is no 50%+1. That option is pretty much dead in the water.

I've said it elsewhere to Danny, but this rosy picture some of you are seeing makes no sense. A month ago, Suleiman was Syria's candidate. What makes you guys think that's changed?

And we didn't need this "tactic" to expose M8's true agenda (as someone claims here). That agenda has been obvious for quite some time now, for those willing to look past their noses.

Take off the rose colored glasses folk. This is not NEAR over. The presidency part is all but done (Suleiman will be president), and that in and of itself is a concession by M14. Next up, the real battle: Who gets to be PM, and the make-up of the cabinet. And you can bet that M8 will be making demands there. They've already redlined Saniora as PM, and will undoubtedly want key portfolios and the 1/3+1 veto power. So again, M8 hasn't given in on anything yet, and M14 is the one who has given an inch here and an inch there.

I don't see how you guys are seeing positives in this.

[Bad Vilbel]

Oh, and guys, this is Lebanon. The Army is NOT a cohesive institution with its own culture like it is in, say Pakistan or Turkey. Coups don't work here. Suleiman might be able to stage a coup in Beirut today, but the day he tries to take control of the South from HA, you think a large number of the Shia units will side with a Maronite general of their own? Doubtful.

A coup would lead to an army fracture.

[Solomon2]

"Thanks go to the Patriarch." - fubar

What would it take for the Patriarch to change his mind, I wonder?

[Lover]

"...Christians he doesn't represent anyway..."

So you're calling the 2005 elections a mistake? Great! Lets have new elections, because I consider M14's majority a mistake as well. No? Why not, too chicken of the results? Ofcourse you are. So stop whining.

"The former general had suffered a considerable defeat in the Metn by-election after losing the Maronite vote."

Well, in one comment you claim he is supposed to represent Christians, but in this one you try to infer that he's only supposed to be popular among the maronites.

You seem to forget that a general whose been in exile for 15 years, and zero political presence for allt hose years, came back and took the country by storm. He did not even compete for the Metn in 2005 because it has been a stronghold for the Phalanges since 1934! And you call him winning a failure? Come on maaaaaaan, just be sane for once. So what if he lost the Maronite vote by a few dozen? He won the overall Christian vote didn't he? He beat a heavyweight on his own turf, taking away what he had - well the only thing he had - for a very very long time.

[Solomon2]

"You seem to forget that a general whose been in exile for 15 years - "

Only Americans speak and write English that badly. You're not a native Lebanese, are you Lover?

[Lover]

Actually, I am Lebanese, 100/100 - but I live in the UK and my English is fine, thank you very much. This is a blog comment, not a Shakespeare essay. Stop being such a technical prick and a picky twat. Having a life is really fun - you should try it one day.

[danny]

Romeo as usual you'd seem brighter and more intelligent if you were to shut up mate!!

The main reasons your Aouny got any votes were:A. He campaigned on Christian fears that Moslems united against them during the election. B.Syrian mukhabarati assholes with sulaiman the moron scaring and pushing the people into voting for their disfunctional alliance...

You want an election to prove who's chicken or not? Go back to Junior K and put on your diapers...your comments seem to have the same odour as your diaper!!

[JAS]

Danny:

Hezbollah Lover’s claims are consistently emotional and irrational. He is a Lebanese student who resides in the UK—but remains the toy of propagandists. Horses wearing blinders have greater vision than Lover.

[Lover]

"He campaigned on Christian fears that Moslems united against them during the election"

So, how do you explain him winning in the Metn in 2007? Your logic stinks and is more disfunctional than the alliances you talk of. He was allied with Hezbollah, who represents no less than 95% of Lebanon's Shia - who in turn are the single biggest Sect in Lebanon. Could you explain how this worked?

I'll tell you what happened. Aoun came to Lebanon. He seemed crazy because of a few reasons - they thought he had absolutely no political clout because of his long abscence, because of his part in formulating resolution 1559 and because he was absolutely neutral when it came to foreign backing.

Aoun took everyone by surprise by winning 70% of the Christian vote. Despite this, he was barred from having any representatives in Government. GaeGae, who has 2 MP's, and Gemayel, who HAD one MP got seats in government. But Aoun who has i think 27 MP's, has none. Does this look democratic to anyone. I mean call me crazy, but this is ridiculous.

Hezbollah got back-stabbed by all the M14 guys. I'll tell you why the Hezbollah-M14 alliance worked. Hezbollah and Amal = the biggest, if not the only, representatives of the Shi'a. They happen to be pro-Syrian. Harriri is killed. Harriri is Sunni. M14 rises and M14 is anti-Syrian. Put the Iraq mess into the equation and you've guessed it. For Hezbollah, it was a good thing to enter this alliance, whether they knew it would be long or short term is irrelevant, to avoid a flare-up between the outraged Sunni community and the Shi'a community, especially against Hezbollah - because any internal fighting would drain the militia of power very slowly.

That is Hezbollah's excuse. Now back to M14's excuse. By letting Hezbollah enter the alliance, they make a few worthless guarantees on paper to re-assure Hezbollah they are the resistance and they are legitimate and their weapons are pure. You know, that famous speech by Walid Jumblat 'These weapons are the purest of weapons, these weapons will liberate Palestine, and all of Palestine and the Quds and..." you know the rest. In return, they get zero competition in most of the places where there is very big support for Hezbollah. You have to remember that big chunks of the Beirut district include the Dahyeh - the most populated area of Beirut, and you can figure out who runs that place.

This was basically this - no internal fighting and admitting we are the resistance, in return for no competition in certain areas from us, and this means more seats for you. Hezbollah is very apathetic when it comes to politics, especially pre-2005. Until 2005 they hadn't held a single Government ministerial post.

Anyways, Hezbollah get stabbed in the back by M14. They and Amal are totally isolated. Their only allies are the SSNP and the Communist Party along with other rag-tag parties nobody has heard of before. They are Shi'a the rest are multi-faithed. They are totally isolated. Then they look to the mountains and see poor old Michelle Aoun all alone with his majority of Christian vote but hardly any representation or legitimacy just because M14 dumped him (14 athar or 14 shbat?).

So, you have these two heart-broken party's representing the biggest ammount of Lebanese but in political terms are totally outcast. The Supreme Court was neutralised just after Seniora appointed his cabinet so there was no official power to check parliament laws or government action as being according to the constitution. So these two party's look at each other and fall in love because they know what they could achieve. Their potential of being united was immeasurable. So they joined by an understanding. This served them both. Aoun tends to represent the less well-off Christians and Hezbollah the deprived Shi'a. They could both be spared the generalisation and stereotype of being sectarian simply because they did have both Christians and Muslims in their little group. All these other, and smaller groups were attracted to the Hezbollah-Aoun alliance. This drew in the Communists, SSNP, Amal and other Druze and Sunni groups - thus creating the opposition.

Then the war happens. This was the ultimate test of solidarity. The results? The Anti-Hezbollah became more openly and staunchly Anti-Hezbollah (i am talking about the politicians not the people) and the Pro-Hezbollah became even more Pro-Hezbollah. Aoun survived the loyalty test. Aoun alone did more for the refugees than the government did. It is totally inconcievable the way the government reacted to the July onslaught. In any war, in any fight, in any conflict - you stick by your own before by your others. The government and its leading figures thought it was clever to do otherwise. Instead we heard speeches of politicians speaking of a 'final solution' endorsing Condi's 'no to status quo', that the 'calculations' will be for later - all the while Hezbollah restrained by bowing to all demands and not responding objectively - not because they were weak or losing (Walid Jumblat publicly admitted it), but because they simply wanted to avoid a political clash during a harsh war and simply because they knew this would demoralise and split the people rather than unite them in the harshest of times.

This government has done more bad to everyone than any other previous government or rule has done for a very long time. I mean, take the equation of M14 and M8 out for a second and concentrate on the facts. This government consisted of both parties and I for one am criticising it on everything - not one part and sparing the other. The Lebanese government, being the highest authority in the land, should take responsibility. We have lost this years Summer tourists (because of Nahr Al-Bared), we have lost Billions of dollars worth of Business because of political unrest, we have lost our top Judicial branch, turned down an advanced Iranian anti-Aircraft system throughout the country for free and and and...

AND fuck, this is too long. I'm out for a Cig.

[danny]

Romeo,
You proved my point with your incoherent propaganda laced "ramble" "babble"...

Thank you!

[The Other Tony]

You know what Romeo, I will maintain my objectivity and tell you that you are one sided in your arguement. You fail to highlight the tough conditions in which the Government has had to contend with in the last couple of years, including the open assault on March 14 members......yes Romeo, we are talking about assasinations. So, I don't particularly care for trading insults with you nor for communicating in the manner in which you prefer, however I do ask that you respect people's intellect and not rant and rave like an ignorant child who purely repeats what he/she hears.

[JAS]

Where the core values that allow peaceful coexistence regardless of one or another’s race or creed are absent, the burden of management tends to offset progress.

Democracies are election-based systems of government. But government in Lebanon appears to consist of the number of living officials counted after assassinations. In the Middle East the core values of democracy are violated in one way or another every day.

Aoun is hardly a champion of democratic values. See the observations posted today at: http://blacksmithsoflebanon.blogspot.com/

[danny]

JW said: “In reality though, 50% + 1 is very very DEAD (kudos to Sfeir and his bishops, who now woke up from their coma and are very concerned”

BV said: “Are you guys on crack? There is no 50%+1. That option is pretty much dead in the water”

Tony (on Across the Bay) said: “Danny, sorry to pop your balloon, but 50%+1 is no longer an option. Suleiman is the president-to-be, the haggling now is about what comes after.”

The “village idiot” said: “A consensus president is not subject to majority and minority, but to consensus democracy," and “ill add up a term to the initiative every day. My best offer is my first offer." See: http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&859925A4298E1A96C22573A9005A051B

Ok guys, you said 50+1 is dead….How dead does it look now. HA with the idiot’s charge is sabotaging everything! As I mentioned and I repeat 50+1 will soon materialize… No other options….

As I always say: Stay tuned!!!

[Fawzan]

Ma fi 7all. Sorry guys but I really don't see it. We are moving towards another delay for another week and another after that.

Meanwhile Bashar did say that he will distroy lebanon over "Their heads" and I think that is a strong possibility now. The two sides have opposing visions of Lebanon and their is no consensus without either or both sides giving up fundamental issues.

No. We are headed to a deep crisis and I would not be surprised if we end up with a fragmented land and another chapter 7 resolution for UNIFIL to keep the peace in all of Lebanon and then... kil-7adis-illo-7adees. Maskeen il-libnani bala 7azz!

[JoseyWales]

Ok Danny,

I am keeping a piece of humble pie right here, on my desk. I'll gladly eat it, and drink a toast to you if we get 50+1. ;)

[Ace]

About the "dead" 50+1. I want you all to consider the history of the Batrak. Think long and think hard.

In view of all that "history" .... how long do you think either he or the Vatican will tolerate a VOID? How long before "any Christian President is better than no Christian President" - and if it takes 50+1, so be it. Also consider exactly what the 'opposition' is demanding ... anyone here think that the Batrak is in favor of these "demands"? I think he may decide to issue a new statement soon. Just about as soon as he is totally convinced that unless he doesn't -- this VOID will continue for a long, long time. He won't tolerate that for long.

[danny]

I hope for the best...As for that 'pie" I'll gladly eat it hoping for the best. Fawzan, as for Unifil and chapter 7, I know you are tired. But are you nuts? Do you think the west has nothing better to do but be bogged down in a bloody warfare with HA whereas they'll only lose! What for? For our blue eyes sakes? Guy the only reason we are still relevent on the world stage is because there's the Hariri tribunal that the West can use as lever against Syria (for Israel's sake mind you)...

[Fawzan]

I am tired and I am thinking of all those poor people who wait for holidays and summers to make a buck for their families. We celebrated Thanksgiving a few weeks back, and all I could think of was "I am thankful that I am here with my family". 7ar2a balbi to think of every taxi driver, every shop owner every waiter every business owner looking at their family this holiday season (Ad7a and Xmas btw) and what his thoughts are.

So it is either they live in economic dignity but no freedom, or they will be starved to death or biehishlo.

So the way I see it is either we give up the dream of the cedar revolution, or they give up the dream of an Iranian bloc. Or of course we can go head to head and then the UNIFIL idea will happen.

Ma fi 7all man. They can keep going for more and more unacceptable demands and as we meet one they will come up with another. Presidant from outside M14 > Short term (2 yrs) > Agree on PM > Agree on M posts > Agree on major gov. posts > Army and Police posts > Judicary > etc.. and every one of these will be a drawn out battle with no compromise from HA whatsoever. Alla yestour.

[danny]

Fawzan,

BV, AK, JW and Tony (I should stop or I'll create an alphabet soup)and others have stressed exactly the problem that arose from agreeing to amend the constitution. If there's an impetus or any spark left for the Cedar revolution to reignite, it is now. The Don Quidiotic dufus has been giving enough spark along with their Iranian rev guards to force another eruption of just saying "ENOUGH ALREADY". Long time ago I commented that this is a struggle of survival or enslavement. We're back to that point exactly. The leaders or minnos(depending on how you see them) of this revolution have to make a historic decision in all its meaning...CALL THEIR BLUFF!!! They've tried everything and they cannot give in another mmm...
50+1 ...and sorry Batrak please don't say a word....You've done enough!

[In-response]

Lover,

A word of advice: don’t bother! These people are so anally retarded it’s a joke. I laugh just reading what they write. I especially find the guy who calls himself Tony hysterical. Just tell them that the earth’s round and they'll tell you it’s flat; tell them that it’s flat and they’ll tell you it's round. Why? Because they’re not the cleverest people God created. You have to question their intelligence when you read what they write.

By the way guys, they found the Mary Celeste recently. Or maybe they didn't? Do you want to check with Hariri, the man who aspires to be clever, or Geagea who's probably been killing your M14 members?

[danny]

In-response??? Hey guys we have a real life f'n hizbo who knows how to write. Yepeee...geagea killing off march 14?? Piss off asshole and go brainwash yor uneducated sheeple...

[JAS]

In Response:

Was it not Ibn Baz, the blind Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, who issued a fatwa declaring: "The Earth is flat. Whoever claims it is round is an atheist deserving of punishment."

A clear case of the blind leading the blind.

[Umm K.]

"Anally retarded"? I'm glad "In-response" decided to insult readers by using his/her own intelligent reponse.

[JAS]

Trolls are hilarious.

In-Response apparently could not find a subject more relevant to this blog than the Mary Celeste. That event occurred in 1872—this is 2007. And then In-Response also claims he can determine who is retarded.

As Ibn Baz clearly demonstrated with his fatwa—when one foot is in the grave the other foot will spend a lot of time backpedaling claims made. Apparently a large shipment of bicycles built for two is needed to help some catch up to the present.

[Fawzan]

And so the Lebanese presidancy is looking more and more like a microsoft product. Delayed again. Come on folks... Its not going to happen with Tawafuq. Napol'Aoun has aleady said (Like a bully in a school yard) he will be adding another demand every day.

Yalla Tuesday? Who wants to take bets that it ain't gonna happen? The Sayyid has not come out with a firey speech yet. Wait. He will keep his powder dry until he has exhasted the clown in Rabyeh and then come out with a plan that lets Birri be the dream weaver.

Ma fi 7al!

[Butros]

Both M14 and the opposition are playing with fire. It does not help matters when the country is experiencing an economic crisis of great proportions in addition to a very precarious security situation on the ground...The poeple of Lebanon do not deserve this, and we hear talk of people leaving the country for good...this will impact negatively on the future and may even set the country years backwards. The presidency is an important position within the political and power sharing system, but the more this charade continues, the less important it becomes and Lebanon's "democratic" institutions will lose much of their importance as well. It is time for a change in how the political system works and I really do not see any lebanese leader or coalition today capable of such an undertaking...what a pity! 15 years of war and utter destruction and the lesson has yet to be learned!

[The Other Tony]

Lebanon is a failed state! The two political camps are diametrically opposed and are opposed on the fundamentals which it takes to lay the foundation of a state.

I'm sorry if I've lost all hope guys but nothing has happened over the last few months in particular, that smells of promise.

[Super Dude]

No need to be this dramatic.

Sully will get elected next week, and everyone will be happy.
http://super-dude-blog.blogspot.com/2007/12/flicitations-mon-gnral.html

Stop blowing things out of proportion.

BTW for those interested, "Anally retarded" is a person insufficiently versed in the ins and outs of sodomy. But thats a topic for another day.

[danny]

""However, an "encouraging sign" appeared from Tehran after Kouchner left Lebanon when Ali Larijani, an advisor to Iran's spiritual leader Ali Khamenei, made a statement saying he congratulates Gen. Suleiman for winning the presidency"" from:http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&10A6452E9E4D44CBC22573AB0027A8B9

If this quote is correct...WOW..What balls. He congratulates??%$# Nice Hassounettes/orangettes, I wander who's getting their orders from outside??
Strangely enough (not that we had seen him in the past 12 years) Geagea seems to the only one who was trying to fight off the amendment and staying close to the spirit of Cedar rev (apparently he's totally pissed off ad Saad)...

[danny]

JW,
I got my humble pie ready as it seems that USA's leak of the "intelligence brief" on Iran was the carrot Iran was waiting for! Poor Lebanon. I just hope there's enough clear headed youth that can move this country to the modern age...I know I am dreaming!!

[JoseyWales]

Hi Danny,

You are a gentleman, but really no need for that (pie).

At any rate, you make an interesting observation: NIE Iran report and Leb prez?

Had no thought of that, intriguing.

Anyway, if they elect next week, things are going to start happening very quickly (see Geagea on new alliances? dumping Saad? all over reshuffle?), and not a moment too soon.

[marillionlb]

Oh rage, Oh désespoir !!!
From one Micho to another; from one army man to yet another. And still the people wait at home behind their TV screens and hope for better days.
Brace yourselves my fellow Lebanese, for dark days are ahead. Brace yourself Ya General, for this time even France will not open its doors to you when your allies turn on you!
Goodbye Lebanon.

[Bad Vilbel]

I'm a bit intrigued by Geagea and his "new alliances" comment. Clearly, he's not very happy with Saad. Is he thinking about breaking away from March 14? Not that it matters, look to me like a confirmation that the Cedar Revolution is no more. These guys are starting to sound EXACTLY like they did in 1990 around Taef time. Amending the constitution, pro-Syrian president, Geagea dissenting. Deja Vu or what?

[JAS]

Super Dude:

Might as well clear the air now.

Your formal interpretation of “anally retarded” would be similar to a mother telling her son that he is a SOB. That is, the one who intends to insult, insults him(her)self.
Colloquially the usual translation for the phase is something like: ass-backward
For example: an anally retarded theory

[Fawzan]

At the risk of acting like one, don't you guys mean Anal-retentive?

As to the concept of retarded cavity, it would simply mean a form of constipation thus retarding the exodus of collateral. Ya3ni what is happening in Parliament!

[JAS]

Fawzan:

Anal retentive might be found in a psychologist's notebook.

The other word combinations mentioned are street jive, nothing more.