Which way the wind blows

Right, folks, here it is: the attempt to replace – albeit temporarily – one of my favourite bloggers. If there is such a thing as internet stagefright, this must be it. Bear with me, I’ve never blogged before…Oh and, if it is signed by "elnaja" don't worry, it's still me, naja. It's just that it seems someone already has that name in TypePad. Here we go

A waiting room is hardly the place to do business, let alone run a country. And yet this, in a nutshell, is where Lebanon is. And where it has always been: never mind a new president, Lebanon has always been waiting for something that determines its fate, a "something" that almost invariably comes from outside its borders. I remember my late father lamenting that, whenever someone farts somewhere in the world, we always get to smell it. So it is no surprise that, with that bean stew being cooked in Annapolis, we sit and wait for the inevitable flatulence to come our way.

Few meals have the power to produce the kind of gas that affects Lebanon like Middle Eastern dishes cooked in foreign kitchens, particularly when the worst cooks have a hand in them. Today it appears that the Syrians have decided to send a kitchen hand, while our own government is sending Foreign Minister by interim Tarik Mitri, presumably to get a foretaste for what’s in store.

The feeling here in Lebanon is that the whole election timing charade was always going to fall hostage of the Peace Conference, and not even the most sacrosanct of constitutional deadlines was going to get in the way of a good old international chin-wag dictating the future course of events. The fact that the conference is as likely to succeed as Naim Qassem is to develop a sudden desire for White Castle Baconburgers is totally irrelevant: the worse the dish, the smellier the fart.

And it could be a pretty damn nasty stink: with many now bending over backwards to make friends with Damascus, many here – this commentator included – are getting the feeling that we could have spared ourselves a lot of trouble had we just asked the US to hold the conference date a couple of weeks earlier. I don’t think I would be exaggerating much by saying that this would have, at least, elicited a few wry smiles from the State Department: while the French have been busy blowing hot air (sadly maybe even doing something a bit more, erm, substantial), the Americans, save for a statement from Condoleeza Rice “warning against compromise with the pro-Syrian opposition” (AFP) have been strangely quiet of late. This doesn't bode well: as they say when it comes to wind: the worst ones are silent and deadly.

Comments

[e]

I understand the skepticism and the helplessness that comes from not controlling your own future. And yes, Baker and Bush Sr. sold Lebanon. But Bush Jr. is no Baker or Bush Sr. For all the reasons you probably hate him (religious ideologue etc.), he is not going to sell out Lebanon this time. The guy authorized an Israeli bombing raid on Syria without worrying too much about the consequences. He does not overestimate Syrian strength like Baker and his father did and perhaps even relishes a military confrontation with Syria.

And the problem with the middle east is not new flatulence. It is the fact that decades old flatulence never gets ventilated. For example, the Asads have been stinking up the place forever.

So cheer up. Bush may yet prove to be a lame kung-fu duck.

[fubar]

You are right to be on the look out for an SBD (silent but deadly) but, as e says, you are looking in the wrong direction.

[Solomon2]

Annapolis was never intended to have anything much to do with Lebanon. If Lebanese are placing their faith in it, that can only be because they are looking for an excuse to avoid action or justify their own impotence.

There is something I don't understand: why doesn't the Council of Ministers exercise its presidential powers immediately and take action on difficult issues? They won't get any easier once a new president has been selected.

[Bad Vilbel]

As Solomon said, Annapolis has nothing to do with Lebanon. But of course, leave it to the Lebanese, in their constant "our fate is in the hands of others" mentality to build up Annapolis to be somehow involved in the fate of our so-called country.

And once Annapolis comes and goes, it will be something else. There's always something else, out there, that we're "waiting for". The 2008 US elections, or whatever.

Hey folks, maybe all this stink you're smelling is actually YOUR OWN FLATULENCE!

[Jay]

Folks, you're correct in that this conference has nothing to do with Lebanon but you can't underestimate the ramifications of its success or failure on us. There are bigger stakes here than Lebanon, yeah we're lucky to be in such a popular neighborhood.

If Syria is willing to play along, and at the outset it seems that it's willing, then that could alter the political dynamics in Lebanon. Say like toning down the rhetoric from the 'opposition' and HA. If the conference proofs to be another failure, then we're probably back to escalations on both sides with the eventual situation of having possible two governments.

[eRamzi]

As e and fubar previously mentionned, i think my dearest George W. Bush is gonna prove to be the one and only Mr. Peace.
but maybe i am just being too optimistic because of that christmas spirit that just started ? at least the economist seem to agree with me; just look at their cover page.

[External Viewer]

Although Annapolis had originally nothing to do with Lebanon, you can bet that Lebanon will be seriously debated by the non-lebanese since clearly all the players are represented there, even Iran via Syria. Since the presidency is not anymore a lebanese issue and the lebanese have failed to counteract this claim, I hope the non-lebanese leaders will hand down a decision to Tarek Mitri. Something needs to happen.

[Fawzan]

Here is the deal folks. We all know that Annapolis will not succeed in solving the Israeli/Palestinian, or the Israeli/Syrian issues. This Israeli government is not strong enough to create peace, nor is Abbas capable of selling a peace no matter how good it is to the majority in Palestine.

Solving the Lebanese issue becomes the only win that can be had in Annapolis. The Syrians know that they are walking into a room with everyone standing on the other side. What do they expect to do? Bargain the Golan for Lebanon? Bargain the court for an M14 president?

Once the economic packages start floating like a true X-mas gathering, all things will be in play. The Americans have given too many guarantees to M14 to turn on them now, but something will have to be given in exchange for a win. I just don't know what it will be. Let's hope it is not too costly.

[Solomon2]

The Economist has the same affliction most Western media have when it comes to Israel-Arab issues: in order for its reporters to operate safely in Arab territories, they have to make compromises with those in power.

Obviously, these compromises extend to what issues are covered and how they are framed. Less obviously, they deceive the Arabs because such publications must, as a result, also distort how Arabs are perceived by non-Arabs. Arabs do not grasp this.

That is what is going on here: because of the Economist's kowtowing to Arab interests, Arabs believe that Israel is on the ropes and that non-Arabs perceive them sympathetically. Consequently it's easy for them to believe (and the Economist et al has little choice than to feed this belief) that GWB will naturally see the "justice" of their cause and can "pressure" Israel into concessions.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Bush knows that current Palestinian Arab culture is diseased and furthermore that any "success" against Israel will damage the West's strategic interests.

All the Economist article is doing, then, is setting up the Palestinian Arabs up for another bitter disappointment - yet the Palestinian Arabs themselves cannot see their own hand in this. It would be pitiful if the results were not so deadly.

By the same token, Lebanese observers should also pay close attention to how the international media is pressured in Lebanon - though outside Hezbollah-controlled areas the pressure is far less than that in the territories - and strain to re-cast events in different lights than those portrayed in the press or TV.

[Ace]

My favorite quote of the day about
Annapolis.

"A gathering of the weak and desperate".

[The Other Tony]

Welcome Naja and good post.

Although Annapolis has nothing to do with Lebanon, there is always the fear that back room deals will take place and Lebanon will pay the price. Not that the Lebanese "leaders" do themselves or the country any favours with the way they "lead".

[jeha]

great post, Naja. It shows that no one has anytlhing to give @ anna1s fair city but hot air. I do not think Palestine is even really an issve... could it simply be preparing the ground for some sort of alliance against Iran/s Mullahs?

[naja]

Thanks Jeha. I think your question is spot on: all Iranian-backed factions (HA and Hamas) as well as the Iranians themselves, have reacted violently to the conference. Even the Israelis (check out Caroline Glick in JPost) feel that they may have a price to pay for this. As for the Syrians, the fact that they are sending a second rank official suggests that either they are going there as a fly on the wall or to see if they can stick Lebanon in the bargains basket.

[MM]

Empty Room in Annapolis
http://mijkasamora.blogspot.com/2007/11/empty-room-in-annapolis.html

[danny]

Jorgo is trying hard to help his Israeli friends...however even if a deal were to be reached with Abbas I am sure that our friends @ Hamas/Iran/Syria will find something atrocious with it!
As for Lebanon, HA will find something wrong with either success or failure of the 'conference"...Annapolis is yet another excuse for HA to create chaos in Lebanon. Imagine now they have the best of all worlds...As Kassem said, there's nothing constitutional in Lebanon...ONLY HA!!!OUR DESTINY OF DEATH...

[Shunkleash]

VERY ODORIFEROUS!!!

Good post and comments!!! You are all wonderful, very insightful, and possess great analytical skills. I am left with no other choice but to agree with ALL of you. (just trying out my "consensus" lingo:-))

Lets see what happens in annapolis. Did anyone notice the mighty midget in iran's "our neighbours" comment the other day? He basically accused anyone (i.e Syria) who attended the conference as traitors to "brothers" and the "palestinian cause". Meaningful, because it came straight on the heels of Goosenecks' decision to attend the conference. Hence the reason Syria has been very "iffy" and why it chose, at the last minute, to send a turd to the conference instead of the main buckets of shit (moallem or al sharaa). It wants to pretend to have influence, while acknowledging its secondary status to Iran. The talk about the golan may also be meant for home consumption, the people in syria (specifically the sunnis) are beginning to feel the weight of the Syrio/iran alliance and they do not like it!

Bashar is playing his relvance game again, but i think this time the moron is going to be in for a rude awakening. I believe Iran is eating syria from the inside out and since opening the can of worms bashar can do nothing about it. The rotten carcass that Syria has become is, im afraid, going to burn.

Ayesh Lubnan

[Dania]

Whatever comes of Anapolis it'll be proof that once again we lebs lost the momentum and couldnt or rather wouldnt do whats in our best interest. Presidential elections should've been held since the first postponment Berri made, now we're trapped. Iran already "told" Syria its stance on Anapolis so lets not expect any breakthroughs not forgetting that Barak and many in Israel are also "not so excited" about this conference.

[Fawzan]

Regarding the flatulence, the amount of gas coming from Rabieh should be enough to fuel a city.

Do the supporters of Napol3oun realize that he needs to take his pills EVERY day? Lithium is not Tylanole. He HAS to take it otherwise tomorrow he may start wearing a red cap!!! Come on people 7aaj til3abo bi'l zalami. Give him his pills back.

[Shunkleash]

Just to add to my last post and why I am jealous of GK and BV. I jsut read this on Ya libnan:-

"The Christians' political decision is in Rabiyeh," and consultations with Bkirki are tantamount to "advice." He said

"I enjoy Christian representation whether they like it or not," Aoun warned. "I'm known to represent 66 percent of the Christians, and whoever enjoys 66 percent has decision rights."

Seriously now, am I alone in thinking there is something mentally wrong with this man?

I wonder if i can make the point to correct a flaw in that mad mans rant -----> the Christians' (AND EVERY OTHER LEBANESE) political decision is in PARLIAMENT!!!! Will I now be labeled a zionist conspiracy sympathiser whose only goal is to ensure that israel can suck the brains out of every arab in the ME with there new brain sucking machine (aka "the brain sucker")?

Ayesh Lubnan

[Bad Vilbel]

Shunkleash,

I wasn't sure whether to laugh, cry, or rip my hair out, when I read that rather hilarious statement from Aoun. I swear, that man makes up his own rules. Apparently, if you represent 66% of a population (and that number is debatable), you have decision rights now. I guess we don't need a constitution, a government, a parliament or a president. The Republic of Lebanon is no longer (for what is a republic when one individual makes up the rules about decision rights?). Between Aoun's "decision rights" and Hezbollah's "Divine rights", we really are in some sort of medieval twilight zone. This hearkens back to a time before Plato wrote the Republic and the notion of Code of Laws was unheard of. In other words, Lebanon is not even a failed state. It's not even MEDIEVAL anymore...It's freaking prehistoric!!! We're about on par with the pre-pharaonic nomadic tribes. That's how evolved our system of government is, people.