What's a list without a stick?

Two days ago, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner wished Lebanese politicians "good luck" in figuring out how to elect a president before the constitutional deadline ends next week. Supposedly, he set in motion a "mechanism", charging the partriarch with the task of nominating candidates and Berri/Hariri with selecting one or two for the vote.

We still don't know whether the patriarch's secret list saw the light, or was dead on arrival as some suggested. Regardless, it was fiercely opposed by Michel Aoun, who today blasted it for containing candidates who are not of his caliber, and attacked Saad Hariri for not accepting his candidacy. The Lebanese forces did not warm up to the idea either, hinting that the responsibility of electing a president should not be shifted from parliament to the Maronite church. 

In any case, and this perhaps partly explains the patriarch's initial hesitation, a Bkirki list will not change the plans of Michel Aoun, Hizbullah and the Assad regime. Aoun today made it clear that he will boycott the session to elect a president if he is not the only candidate running.  Nasrallah is reportedly discussing the lineup of the second government with Assad regime lackey Suleiman Frangieh.  And Syrian-installed Emile Lahoud has already declared any such list "unconstitutional". As for the Assad regime, they have already predicted failure for the French initiative.

The French wanted to use the Maronite church's authority to lebanonize the process and shield it from foreign intervention. However, the church, as the French should have known, is not immune to Syrian intervention, and cannot impose a solution, especially when Sarkozy is unwilling to put measurable pressure on the Assad regime. The Lebanese need more than "good luck". They need a miracle the  Maronite church cannot perform.

Comments

[Bad Vilbel]

Good post.

Unfortunately, it is becoming too easy to predict the upcoming events.

[LebExile]

I am sick to death of all this nonsense about lists and the patriarch...

by going along with this clap trap, the march 14 are legitimising their demand that a president needs to be elected by a 2/3 majority, and that there needs to be consensus.

Why dont the March 14 invite some camera's to the phoenicia, and hold a parliamentry session and elect someone now. we all know it's going to get to this, so why keep delaying the inevitable..

If Hassy and his fellow RAT HOLE dwellers are unhappy with the situation, let them form their own government with lahoud, Aoun, Franjieh or whoever else they want..

Am I the only one fed up with this whole charade???

[Bad Vilbel]

No you aren't. I've been wishing M14 would call Hezballah's bluff for months now.

[JAS]

Selecting a Presidential candidate is the lesser of many existing political problems in Lebanon.

Hezbollah is not a wart; Hezbollah is an internal disease. Hezbollah is an independently funded and heavily armed militant group whose various agendas have inflicted harm and pain to the political state, the economy, and the civilians of Lebanon. Their political goal is to invade and control every government body and institution within Lebanon. And, as with internal diseases like cancer, the tumor must be removed (territorially excised as part of Lebanon and Lebanese government) or otherwise overwhelmed with appropriate measures. Bandages are superficial and irrelevant treatment against invasive diseases.

[LebExile]

If the March 14 go on the offensive, and work rapidly, I think they can radically change the situation in Lebanon.

1. Hold elections today and declare a winner. By the time Nov24 rolls around, swear in the new president

2. dont give Hez time to react, make the form a new cabinet, including shia, but, not Hezb MP's.

3. Pass a new electrol law ASAP.

4. have the president demand that the resistance disband, as well as all palestinian and non palestian armed factions. Request help from the internation community to effect this.

5. If Hezb try or do anything, declare a state of emergency, and deploy the army in all major cities, and beging to confiscate weapons.

6. If Hezbo or Aoun try to declare their own second governemnt, issue arrest warrents for both immediately, and pass these on to Interpol.

7. Hold trials for each in case they flee to another country..

8. build up the institution of the state, and purge whatever remaining syrian appointees are left.

9. close the borders with Syria, and open peace talks with Israel. Eventually open border with Israel to transit goods to the arab world.

10. once we have open borders with Israel, Syria will no longer have the borders to blackmail us with, in either case, if they close the borders, they will hurt themselves mroe than they hurt us.

I know that alot of the above is taboo at the moment, but, if you give the Hezb little time to react, you will be at step 9 before they can react to step 2.

what do you guys think of this plan???

[Dania]

LebExile we all share yr frustration but M14 are indeed calling everyone's bluff, berri's and hizz's and are deliberatly not resorting to an eleciton at present by an absolute majority vote, precisely cause they want to build a momentum strong enough for it to have a strong impact and have the unprecedented backing of the international community as well as internal support(Patriarch and maybe some orangy-hesitant MPs). This time we have the majority and the world on our side, lets not rush hizz is cornered and aoun is finished.

[Amir in Tel Aviv]

1. The presidential election ordeal reached a degree of ludicrousness by now. Grotesque.!

2. It is not so bad idea to bring the Christian clergy in to this. HZB has Iran and the Ayatollahs, the Sunnis have the guardian of the holly wells, why shouldn't the Christians bring Bkirki and their holly guys.

3. Just like in Israel, when there are tough decisions to make, the solution will appear in the 90th minute. No one really wants (at this stage...) to break the roles, or to call off the game.
AND This is the real bluff.

[Danny]

Still all is a smokescreen and disinformation. Negotiantios are on going to the last minute to extract the most from this dead horse. As for March 14 group, I think their mind was made up a long time ago. There's no turning back from this path! No Syrian lackey for president. 50+1 is Ok. The least of all evils. Call the Hizb's f'n bluff and let's move on!!!!

More shit on the way. HA is stretching this to exact further concessions from March 14 the weeks after. They very well know a President means dick all...

[Shunkleash]

draining, aint it?...

Maybe the next foreigner we should ask to come and "help us" sort this "mess" out is your friendly neighbourhood Domino's Pizza delivery man!! I KNOW I KNOW you are all surprised...he is my "secret" negotiating weapon!!

He has more intelligence than every single one of the pols inlcuding (well all of them). By the way in case I offend "joseph" or "lover" or am accused of being a zionist collaborator assisting the zionists in their plan to drain the brains out of every non jew in the ME and fertilise the tomb of menachim begin, im including HASSAN "fat khanzir" NASSRALLAH...aka the fat fcuking hiyawen mastoul british meatball as part of politicial mosh pit! To boot he is an allround nice guy!

By the way, I like how the leb media have taken Cloun apart! WOW!...explosive and inciteful journalism guys...keep up the good work! I like especially how they alerted the governemnt to the FCUKING FACT that any politician in the world who threatenes anarchy and chaos is immediatley arrrested and put on trial.

I also like how they showcased the decisive stance of the snivelling british meat ball PM when he declared that any attempt by any party to disrupt the vote will be met with strong and decisive force by the armed forces. It stirred me when they also recounted how our bmb PM laid down the law and said that any attempt by Gerge Hamilton to form a second government will amount to an act of treason for which he will be hunted, tried and either executed or jailed indefinitely. I peronally like the last penelty because it means that lahoud could end up being someones BE-ATCH!!

PHEW!!! and I thought lebanon was in trouble...SILLY ME!!

Ayesh lubnan

[Bad Vilbel]

LebExile,

I've been clamoring for solutions like "Martial law" and "arresting traitors" for a LONG time now.

But I'm afraid M14 is not about to do what you suggested. They're indecisive wimps who have been behind Hezballah's moves on every step of the way. They have been wasting their time, trying to come up with a consensus solution for over a year now. What makes you think they'll suddenly get the balls to go on the "offensive". Whatever momentum they had, it was in 2005, right after the Cedar Revolution. They should have gone on the offensive back then, instead of engaging in various "national dialogues" and other idiotic extra-state endeavors.

On paper, though, I'd be behind your suggested proposal 100% of the way. It's all constitutional, it's all legal, and it's what should have been done a long time ago to prop up the state's authority. The only way you do that is by not tolerating anything outside of the state's institutions (that includes dialogues, militias, weapons, and phone networks). The fact that they've even ENGAGED in initiatives and dilly-dally outside of the constitution and the state's isntitutions has already weakened any argument for strengthening the state.

[Ace]

Berri has a tough choice. Aoun/Nasrallah can't win this one. Will Berri see that and bring his block to vote? The Saudi's have the "right" pressure to push Iran ... will they? Time for Nas and his boys to move from Lebanon and into Syria to continue their "war". They might even be able to take over Syria. I kinda like that scenario. Serve Bashar right.

[Super Dude]

[Alert: sarcasm is OFF]

Shunkleash, my sarcasm radar malfunctioned, so I am not sure how to read what you posted. Is what you mentioned true or are you making fun of the media and Jellyfish (now bmb)?

If it is true, I would like to document these incredible events, can you give me a source?

Thanks dude.

[Bad Vilbel]

You know what's crazy? The fact that the ONE and ONLY openly declared candidate for the presidency, who's actually bothered to put forth a platform is, of all people, Etienne Saqr.

As much as it pains me to say this, but go read his platform. I really can't say I disagree with most of his points (I think the only one I take exception to is the restoring of Presidential powers).

If a nut like Saqr can formulate an actual platform and make it public, along with his candidacy. What does that say about the rest of our clown/politicos?

Read the platform here

[valiumjunky]

Can patriarch sfeir nominate himself? would be an interesting notion...

[Shunkleash]

Relax Superdude:-) I was making fun of the media and the rest of the pols. Sarcasm is the name of the game. Sorry to one and all for not making that clear.

But just as a thought, why would what I write cause surprise...should it not be expected?

By the way the "new" reference to our esteemed PM as a (BMB) Britsh Meatball is in honour of Mr. GK who asked me to tone down my langich aight? What it refers to is a closely guarded secret that I will only divulge when all the other "secrets" in lebanon are made public. Sorry.

By the way BV...I said the same thing the other day about Mr Abu Arz...too bad really but you see according to Claoun and nasskharrah we are a highly developed democracy where such things as a political platform are not necessary. What really counts is how loud I can shout and how much unadulterated nonsense I can spew in one sitting. (sarcasm thing again folks)

Peace

Ayesh lubnan

[ramonedevi]

Why stop at Cardinal Sfeir? The Holy Father in Rome should pick the President. Maybe they should pick an expat whose experience has been outside of Lebanon.

This is all dead end game being played. Hiz and the others will resort to violence because they know they are in the minority and the Lebanese do not share their value system. It's time for some leadership to shown and enough with the consensus. I believe it was Margaret Thatcher that said "Consensus is the absence of Leadership".

I preferred when Chirac was running France and I hate this open dialogue with Syria. This Lebanon prize is the booty for the seperation of Syria from Iran. The international pressure has stop on Iran and Syria (for the time being). They know it and are playing the game.

If I was M14, I would call a press conference or even have the PM address the nation and say we have exhausted all means short of violence. They have picked us off one by one. This is not a trait of democracy or a free society. Urge for a REAL unity government under the banner of M14 and basic tenants to freedom.

I just can't see this thing not be made a Junta by the other side.

[Hassan]

"Hariri: Aoun Can Play 'Uniting Role' "
http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&88653641A7BBAC28C22573950045E5AD
A lot of you have probably read this already but the article doesn't say much.
Did anybody find a full transcript or at least have more information?

[Bad Vilbel]

I just about vomitted when I read that headline about Hariri claiming Aoun can play a uniting role.

Again, a prefect example of what I and others have been complaining about time and again. A complete lack of balls by M14. They get bitchslapped left and right by Aoun and Nassrallah, and they continue to play nice and turn the other cheek...

[Hassan]

I get the feeling they agreed on something back in Paris. All the barking that followed has been a theatrical performance by Aoun.
Now hizballah has named a candidate for Sfeir's list but will only disclose it in due time, which makes it sound like Aoun is not that name.
It all smells too fishy.

[JoseyWales]

Th pendulum has swung to "optimism".

Berri, Hariri are happy. Joumblatt has softened. Murr is distancing himself from Aoun and will vote (with 6 or 7 MPs) if Batrack/Berri/Hariri agree on a name. Hey, the POS gotta be ready to do business with the new regime, if there is one.

A list of 7 is supposedly out. (Aoun/Lahoud/Harb and Ghanem/Torbey, Edde Michel (bad) and Michel Khoury.)

Is the goose cooked or are Aoun and Nasnas due for more nasty surprises???

Question: do Berri and Murr have enough votes to get to 2/3 with M14??

[JoseyWales]

And BTW, if any frigging precious SOB is elected lock him up in Baabda for the next 6 years. Forget any parades or any fucking big inaugurals, Remember Moawad and Bashir.

On the other hand, give Emile Lahoud all the goodbye parades and street exposure he can get, he is truly deserving.

[Bad Vilbel]

Ahahaha! That last bit made me laugh, Josey :)

FYI, I am not as optimistic is the latest news, or the current mood. Let's not forget that we've been "had" with this "optimism" crap before.

I still expect Nassrallah and Aoun to torpedo the process somehow. After all, they have nothing to lose at this point. Playing along with the consensus does not get either of them anything that they want. So they'll continue to play spoiler, each in his own way.

You heard it here first :)

[Shunkleash]

Goodbye Parades?!?! PA-LEEZ!

An assassins bullet even to the middle of the forehead would be too good for this joker. Plus it would be insulting to the shooter. I advocate putting him in the back of a donkey cart draped with nice streamers and stuff (you know? something befitting the office he is leaving and the manner in which he has left it). Don't forget to throw in a couple boxes of Hawaiian Tropic and then set him on the road to damascus where he and bashar can have a gay old time! Yalla, Giddee up little horsey!

Ayesh Lubnan