March 14's fatal mistake

Now that the "opposition", including Nabih Berri, has adopted Aoun's "initiative", March 14 finds itself, yet again, outmaneuvered. After living in the Berri-esque illusion that Bkirki's list will be respected, March 14 rediscovered the dishonesty of its opponents. Over the past month, the "opposition" successfully managed to prevent the parliament's majority from electing a president through distraction and deceit. Hours before the constitutional deadline expires, the Syrian-puppet president is preparing to announce measures designed to prevent the Siniora cabinet from assuming power. Lahoud is armed with Hizbullah's blessing and the complicity of Michel Aoun. March 14 is counting on assurances given by Berri that the "opposition" will not escalate the situation if  a president in not elected through a majority vote.

March 14's Fares Soueid said the movement is waiting for Lahoud's announcement before taking such a step. Sadly, March 14 deputies came to parliament today and consented to a postponement, forfeiting their constitutional right to holding such a session. Considering that Berri couldn't hold his end of the French-sponsored bargain, it seems strange to this blogger that so much faith is still being placed in his promises, and in reaching agreement with him.

It should be clear that Lahoud is not bound by any arrangement Berri may have made with the majority. It should also be clear that Hizbullah and Aoun have been using Berri to buy time and keep March 14 from convening its deputies. One wonders if March 14's current strategy, which is sadly being pushed by Jumblatt and Hariri, will cost them the country.   

Comments

[JoseyWales]

I think Joumblatt pushed things as far as he could, given Hariri/Saniora's spinelessness, given Sfeir's idiocy and given the silence of Orthodox/Catholics leadership/clergy.

[Vox P.]

I say elect a president at 50% + 1 and call Hezbayre's bluff.

[Solomon2]

Does the Parliament even have the authority to delay a session until November 30th? Under Article 74 when the Presidency becomes vacant the Chamber has to reconvene with the sole purpose of choosing another President. So why should any promise about waiting until next week be valid a few hours from now?

[Super Dude]

Vox P. it is too late for that option now for at least one week, since "March 14 deputies came to parliament today and consented to a postponement, forfeiting their constitutional right to holding such a session."

Costly mistake? yes. Fatal? We'll know in one week.

I can't wait for midnight when we'll see what Lahouss will do to invalidate the government and 'surprise' the rest with his orders to the Army.

[Bad Vilbel]

One wonders if March 14's current strategy, which is sadly being pushed by Jumblatt and Hariri, will cost them the country.

Unfortunately, M14 has lost the country a long time ago. All this stupidity today simply proves what we've been saying all along: March14 have been outmaneuvered every step of the way. And to this day, continue to value their naive idea of "consensus" over the will to build a country or govern. Playing Mr. Niceguy doesn't pay off when the rapist's already ripped your clothes off, bent you over and is already halfway up your *** (apologies for the rather brutal metaphore, but it's about as apt as I can think of right now).

[danny]

We are not privy to any possible deals that are being made in the corridors. As far as being out maneuvered; my question is from what? What is the end game of March 14? Electing a president? International Tribunal? It seems that March 14 does not have Arab and international cover to go alone right now. Let us not forget the pink elephant that is sitting in the room with all its saroukhs… It seems they have been advised not to be the antagonists and play the waiting game for another month till the international court is set up and running. It is naïve to be simplistic and blast them away. Yes, they have blundered repeatedly, in hindsight…I think being in that cesspool every step has been dissected and analyzed repeatedly…History will be the judge. As far as Aoun’s “initiative”, I think March 14 should have their own “initiative”. Nominate Sfeir for life as president to change when the Mehdi returns…
These “moubadarat are the most annoying crap! Let’s wait 11 more hours…

[Bad Vilbel]

It doesn't matter "from what", Danny? The bottom line is, what kind of Lebanon do you and I want: A functional state? or a failed state in a constant state of chaos and anarchy?

March14 had a bit of momentum, in 2005, with the Cedar Revolution. They wasted the past 2 years and squandered every opportunity to move Lebanon forward.

Instead, March 14 provided cover for Hezbollah (back in 2006 war), and prior to that during the elections. M14 (and sfeir) provided cover for Lahoud to stay in power in '05. M14 has done absolutely nothing to move this country forward. They have, in fact presided over this country moving backwards. Back in 2005, we had a functional government, at least. Today, we have no functional government institutions (no cabinet, no parliament, no constitution, no nothing). And you ask me where I think they dropped the ball? How about ON EVERYTHING?

[LebExile]

Hey - enough already - you guys are really trying my patience...

What exactly have M14 done wrong... they have not being out manouvered at all... it like a cop and a robber playing by the rules - you know the robber cant play by the rules, and there's not much the cop can do while the robber is holding the gun...

just be a little more patient - there are a hell of a lot of back room deals, and fortunately for us - Lebanon currently means alot more to the US than you guys think... we wont be thrown to the wolves just yet!

Apart from that - would you be reassured if Jumblatt goes on TV tonight and gives you a reassuring speech... while riling up the opposition even further..

The president wont do jact shit when his term finishes... he'll pack his bags and go home... and good riddance to that.

Seriously AK - your blog is beginning to depress me... or the comments at least!

Happy thanksgiving to those of you who celebrate this - sorry it's late - it's just that I've been preoccupied lately.

[LebExile]

just realised what an alarmist title .... "fatal mistake" - oh please

[danny]

BV,
In a perfect world where civilized nations vote democratically by the rule of law...OK you are right. However, in a country that was dominated like no other for 15 years and have been trying to build NOT rebuild the institutions for the past two years I think we can cut some slack. Again, in hindsight March 14 has blundered...however the upcoming days will unravel all the deals made in the dark. We'll see who has been out maneuvered? As for providing HA cover, come on BV are you not spinning this too much? What were they supposed to do: Object vehemently? You have an entire sect feeling that HA is their only saviour. Trust me HA is playing the Sunni and Christian cards to keep Shiites scared and opressed...Yes opressed to be able to use them in the "ilahi adventures".

[Solomon2]

I see that Lahoud has declared a "State of Emergency" and begged the Army (Suleiman) to "preserve the country's security.

I suppose that will last about two more hours. Consider if M14 had picked a simple majority first. That could indeed create the two opposing governments scenario Tony and Bad Vilbel envisioned a few days ago. This way, doesn't the Army simply step aside when executive authority passes to the Council and ultimately the new president?

hi guys
man you surely know how to talks about these things now that your old masters the syrians are gone
god i remember the days where your greatest pleasure was licking syrians ass, and now you're using this tongue that licked everykind of syrian ass to talk?
shut the fuck off

[Bad Vilbel]

Yes. I'm the one who's being an alarmist....30+ years of complete chaos and I'm being an alarmist. Countless lives lost to assassinations, civil war, and anarchy, and I'm the one who's being an alarmist.

Seriously folks, the rest of the world is in the 21st century. I wonder what it's gonna take for the likes of danny to actually start worrying...

[danny]

BV,

I am petrified worried sick...BUT A REALIST! Take out the guns that are pointed to the ordinary Lebanese heads then we'll can campaign on political platforms. Is that ok?

[Bad Vilbel]

How about the Lebanese themselves get their fingers out of their butts and actually DO something about taking out those guns you speak of? If they truly want platforms and campaigns, they've got to earn it.

Until then, I'm going to go ahead and assume the Lebanese people LIKE living with guns pointed at their heads. They have not shown me otherwise.

[BobW]

I have been following this sad story for awhile.
I am confused, why does Hizbullah / Iran / Syria have the ability to choose who is a candidate?
I do not recall reading where the Sunnis or Christians had a choice of who leads Hizbullah.
Why not put Berri's name on the Sunnis or Christians need to approve list too?