Lahoud hands over security to army (corrected)

Emile Lahoud has declared Lebanon to "have the conditions" of a state of emergency, citing inability of the current "illegitimate" cabinet to govern and failure to elect a president by the constitutional deadline. Lahoud left the Lebanese army in charge of security matters in the country until a new government is formed.

Lahoud's decision could mean military rule until further notice.

Update. LBC reports the Siniora government will consider Lahoud's declaration worthless and unconstitutional, as the council of ministers is the only body allowed to declare a state of emergency, and only for 7 days.

Update 2. Although Lahoud did not directly call for state of emergency (post corrected), he handed over all security matters to the Lebanese army, meaning the cabinet would no longer have power over it. AFP quoted an official in the Siniora government as saying Lahoud's statement "is not valid and is unconstitutional...It is as if the statement was never issued."

Comments

[danny]

Who does the army answer too??

[Shunkleash]

LOL! Ok ok you got the last word in and it equals everything you have said and done for your entire term you big mouthed goat...but now its hasta la vista el presidente bye bye georgie. Piece of friendly advice though, you should think about leaving the country:-)

Now, I suppose with this latest charade the M14 will finally have awoken fom its slumber and realised that compromise, dialogue, consensus, and generally playing with your balls in public will not succeed with the frauds in the "opposition"?

Dunno actually, what you guys think? You think SAAAAAAAD/Sfeir/jumblatt/Geagea/Us/you/Me/Them have got it yet? Or will we all need more convincing?

Oh! for those states of emergency, get ready for a baby boom in 9 months:-)

Ayesh Lubnan

[Bad Vilbel]

So Lahoud is pulling a Pervez Musharraf. Nice :)

I don't have anything meaningful to comment here. None of this is surprising. And it's gotten pretty laughable. March 14 continues to fumble around in the meantime. I wonder if they'll notice they need to stop consensus-talk when the military knocks on their doors tomorrow morning...

We all knew it would come down to the army, and to whether it would stay loyal to the cabinet, and which way General Suleiman will choose to swing. So here it is...

[jay]

Don't you think if M14 had a 'green light' from their foreign backers (US, France, Saudia) they would've went ahead with the 50+1 option... Something is amiss here.

[Vox P.]

There's still the possibility that the soldiers will not follow if the army tries to seize power.

[Vox P.]

There's still the possibility that the soldiers will not follow if the army tries to seize power.

[Bad Vilbel]

Jay,

Why should M14 be waiting for FOREIGNERS to give the green light? This is not Kouchner's country! M14 should be doing whatever is constitutional and whatever is in the best interests of Lebanon. Who gives a flying f*** if they have the green light from France?
What the hell, man?

[jay]

In a normal country I agree but we're talking about Lebanese politicians here, aren't we? It's ingrained in their DNA to be slaves to outsiders, are you holding hope that they'll have a conscious call at the 11th hour!

[JoseyWales]

I am not sure exactly what that means.

But I'll say this: Saniora and M14 deserve this and much worse. M14 can eat shit.

We've been saying FOREVER that M14 should have declared a state of emergency a year ago. Keep giving M8 all your cards you Goddamn incompetent fucks.

[ghassan karam]

AK, Congrats on the columns in Ya Libnan. Greater exposure to "modern" rational thinking is always helpful. Good luck. (Maybe you could work that into a permanent arrangement so that Ya Libnan could act as an outlet for B2B).
As I mentioned yesterday, I will attempt not to do Lebanon anylonger. Just like all addictions , the user is ultimately the real loser. I have devoted enough of my energies to this issue and it has been totally useless. Until I can figure out something else to do about the subject that has consumed me I bid all of you farewell. I have enjoyed and benefitted from many of your thoughts and analysis.
Maybe I should not feel so helpless about the events in Lebanon. As I have often said I am a strong believer in dialectic thinking. That at times implies that when things are at their worst might be a sign of a new geining and a new synthesis. Maybe I am misreading the signs and maybe Lebanon is just about to embark on a journey to modernity and democracy. Unfortunately I see no signs that a revolution is about to take place and so I will lick my wounds and reconcile myself to the inevitable, the Lebanese population ,in general, does not wish to adopt a different system, if it did then why support the traiterous HA and or the incompetent March 14? Lebanon is embarked on a journey but it is a journey whose destination is unknown and under the best of circumstances the best we can hope for is a revival of the bankrupt and unacceptable past. To me that is not acceptable although it is preferable to the alternative. Keep up the good work. I will continue to read B2B and Jehas Nail, at least for a while.Adieu.

[AK]

OK, people got confused and the media first reported it as declaring a state of emergency. It seems he said there were "conditions" for such a state. It makes little difference at this point, since the objective is for the army to control all security related matters. And, as we know, anything can be classified as a security matter!

[Super Dude]

Josey, take a deep breath...

[AK]

Ghassan, come on! Even if you decide not to comment, please keep in touch. It's good for us "rational thinkers" to know someone like you reads and supports our "addiction"! It's an outlet after all, much like AA. :)

[Solomon2]

Don't you think if M14 had a 'green light' from their foreign backers -

I don't know about France, but Condoleeza Rice doesn't talk that candidly, she'd probably say something like, "It is the USG's desire to see a more democractic and consitutional government that is committed to Lebanon's international treaty obligations" and then let whoever was listening figure out the meaning.

That's how she talked when the puny Egyptian opposition visited her earlier this year. They interpreted it as saying, "The U.S. supports Mubarak." Grrr. How many people out there realize that although the U.S. is a superpower, it isn't Superman?

[Bad Vilbel]

I'm with Josey On this one. M14 deserve exactly what they are getting. So do the Lebanese people.

I'm tempted to follow in Ghassan's footsteps and quit this whole Lebanon thing. I'd still want to read the news and the blogs, but i really need to stop being so emotionally invested. That country means nothing to me anymore. It's about as foreign as Pakistan or Myanmar.

[naja]

Hey! ho! What's going on here? GK, BV you can't just leave! Hey, some of us need the sanity this blog and these commentators dispense. I'll get a petition going! Worse, I'm sure Lover would find where you live if we asked...

Seriously, guys; don't give up on this. I know the whole world is getting Lebanon fatigue, but of all the people, you are the ones who shouldn't.

[Fawzan]

Has La77ous left the building?

[e]

BV and Josey Wales,
If you were in Lebanon willing to accept the personal consequences of fighting a civil war, your diatribes would make sense. As things stand, urging people into a bloody fight from the safety of the US does not require much courage.
March 14 are doing the best they can not to give in and not to give HA a reason to start a civil war. It is a fine line but they have been pursuing it well.

[Bad Vilbel]

e,

No one is urging a bloody civil war. I've never urged a civil war. I have however, said that the people need to get their act together and demand better. They did in 2005, when they demanded the withdrawal of Syrian troops. That was done peacefully and with no bloodshed. The people, right now, seem content to let both M14 and M8 dictate what happens to their futures (through complete incompetence) and seem to have absolutely nothing to say about it.

You call it a "fine line" that March 14 has been walking. I disagree. Is it a "fine line" when you are being raped, and the rapist has you pinned down on the ground, forcing himself upon you, and instead of defending yourself or screaming for help, you tell the rapist "Why can't we all get along? Let me make you a cup of coffee."

I'm sorry, but we're way past the point of "fine lines" here. There will be no civil war if March 14 had called the opposition's bluff a long time ago. The moment Hezbollah tried turning its weapons against the Lebanese, their gig would've been up. That is a bluff you just HAVE to call. Specially when you have nothing left to lose.

[e]

BV,
But they are calling their bluff. March 14 has not accepted a Syrian president and the presidential powers are in the hands of Saniora. What am I missing here?

And let's say there is only 10% chance that HA resort to violence. Is that chance worth taking to elect a 50%+1 president? Why not follow the clear parts of the constitution and achieve the same results?

HA need a huge pretext for civil war, like the election of a "minority" president. Now Saniora is going to bleed them to death with little cuts. He is going to make "small" presidential decisions, each one not worth of a war, but that in totality will involve weakening HA significantly.

[danny]

BV & GK,

Guys it has been a privelege reading this blogger and your comments. Even if we sometimes disagree that is what makes the exchange of ideas genuine. Maybe Lebanese should learn the art of talking and listening to each other. Your comments although expressed in different manners are most supported from "us" the suffering souls who are about to lose a nation! I think the inactivity (impotance) of March 14 has raised the temperature a bit. We know these are make or break days in Beirut. BV I totally agree with you that they should call the bluff. Here's where "e" is so wrong. Just because HA has the guns...what are the options in the future? More of the same. If staking out your rights on your motherland is treason then we all should vacate...
Again, I agree that March 14 had blundered repeatedly. However, not everything is lost. They should keep up the talks...clAOUNy has already reverted to his idiotic mumblings (God complex and too much bad grass)...this will further expose the lunatics and illustrate to the people that they more exhausted all the venues. Then they can go and vote in Mr. Prez.

[e]

Danny,
You have three options:
1) Vacate (I think BV and JW did that)
2) Fight HA (not popular to say the least)
3) Out manouvre HA diplomatically (the only option).

You tried a civil war and didn't like it. Israeli or Syrian interventions just create more problems. Your only option is 3. If you don't have the patience for that like many many Lebanese go with 1.

[JoseyWales]

e, Super Dude

I am not advocating bloodshed. Over the years I have often pointed to what I think are reasonable and doable things.

Most of the time my beef with M14 is lousy PR and positioning, losing the propaganda war, before it even starts.

I try not to advocate things I would not do or want for myself, even being far away.

If I say "do something, preferably smart" it does not mean bloodshed. (Check my blog over the months).

And Dude, You're right, I've taken a deep breath and things are not as bad as with a second gvmnt, plus the SOB is gone. (I still want M14 and M8 to eat shit though)

[e]

JW,
This is for you.
Weismann a Jew has been hiding with his wife in an attic in Berlin for 4 years during WWII. He finally cannot take it anymore and goes out to get some fresh air. As luck would have it, Hitler is also walking down the street and immediately recognizes that Weismann is a Jew. He points a gun at him and says: Hey, you dirty Jew, start eating the dog shit over there! Weismann having no choice, begins to eat the shit. Hitler laughs so much he drops the gun. Weismann picks it up and tells Hitler to eat the shit. While Hitler is doing this, Weismann runs away and rejoins his wife in the attic. Upon arrival he says to her: Honey, you won't believe who I just had lunch with!

Take it easy.

[Jay]

"..said that the people need to get their act together and demand better. They did in 2005, when they demanded the withdrawal of Syrian troops."

Do you actually believe that the 'people' forced the Syrians out. The Syrians wouldn't have left so shamefully if it weren't for the added pressure from the "FOREIGNERS". Yeah I am romantic too and I'd love to believe we had our own 'orange' revolution, but that's not how things went down.

We're at a similar juncture now where we can't move forward without the 'FOREIGNERS'. This is the sad reality of Lebanon, as far back in history as we can remember.

Stay tuned for the Annapolis meeting, things might appear clearer then!

[e]

I read the FPM forum and these guys are usually clueless. However one guy picked up on what is going on:
--------------------------------------------------
short of "electing" Johnny Abdo or Ghattas Khoury, Sanioura will remain head of the executive branch of the government...

soon his council of ministers will lose the title of "interim" and will assume full powers of the executive branch...

among which, appointing new ministers, new judges, new constitutional council, new employees, new officers in the armed forces, in addition to signing new decrees like the privatization ones and even the naturalization one...

those things will all happen without anyone noticing anything.. and they know how to pass them slowly in order to control any potential public repercussions..

kappa
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

No, Saniora is not going to naturalize the Palestinians but he is going to be able to do many other things that will make Lebanon stronger and the Syrian and HA position in Lebanon weaker. For all practical purposes the Syrian and HA bluff has been called, but as is usual in Lebanon, not in so many words.

[Bad Vilbel]

e,

It's funny, while disagreeing with me, you actually made the exact same demand I have been making all along. You said (and i quote):

Why not follow the clear parts of the constitution and achieve the same results?

This is pretty much all I've been asking for. But M14 hasn't even been able to do that. Is it too damn hard to follow what's written on that piece of toilet paper?

Let me quote a few parts that are clear as day:
* After Nov. 14th, parliament AUTOMATICALLY convenes and elects a president.

Now, what part of that is so hard to understand?

[Cedar Revolution/Gebran's Sons]

GK & BV no need to despair. What happened on Friday is the best outcome under the circumstances. Without Lahood on the scene, and his annoying voice, M14 has all the cards in its hand, constitutionally. Any heavy-handed action Hizbollah may take will backfire against it and draw world condemnation. Any action Aoun takes will make him an even bigger idiot (if that's at all possible :-)

The power of decision and initiative has massivly shifted to the Cedar Revolution forces (not exactly M14), backed by Western and Arab nations. I only hope PM Seniora and M14 have learned their lesson and take advantage of the situation by finally behaving like the majority with a popular mandate, maybe with a twist by making an objective to attract the Shiite middle class and intellectuals with real action plans, development dollars, and political sharing. Unlike most of you, I think highly of PM Saniora. he may not be the best quarterback, but a steady and powerful defense player.

Anyway, GK and BV thanks for your comments, it has been a distinct pleasure reading you, even if you don't share my optimism about the power of democracy to finally take root in Lebanon because the silent majority is ready for it and will demand it.

[JoseyWales]

e,

1)Plse stop telling me to take it easy. If what's going on in Lebanon leaves you cool, more power to you.

2)You and 98% of Lebs say M14 is doing the best they can. Not good enough for me.

The Lebs have been saying this since Charles Helou signed the Cairo agreement:"Poor Charles, he knew it was bad but what could he do?" And they say this at every turn.

Fuck that, that why I left, I don't regret it one second, and that's why I see no light at the end of the tunnel for Leb.

Stay happy and cool with the "fate" dealt to you.

PS BV and GK, you can't leave the same day as Lahoud, hang around some more.

[danny]

from tayyar.org

يدعو العماد ميشال عون جميع الشخصيات المسيحية السياسية والروحية والاقتصادية من رؤساء جمهورية سابقين ووزراء ونواب سابقين وحاليين، ورؤساء أحزاب وفعاليات سياسية ورؤساء روابط ونقابات وفعاليات إعلامية ودبلوماسية وفكرية إلى لقاءات تعقد في منزله في الرابية أيام الاثنين والثلاثاء والأربعاء من الساعة العاشرة حتى الواحدة ظهراً، ومن الساعة الرابعة حتى السابعة مساءً، وذلك للتشاور حول المستجدات وبحث كافة الاحتمالات والأخطار المحدقة نتيجة الفراغ القائم وصولاً الى استخلاص المواقف المناسبة.

إن العماد ميشال عون يهيب بالجميع تحمل مسؤولياتهم والتعالي فوق الحساسيات والصغائر من أجل إنقاذ الوطن وإعادة الاعتبار للصيغة والميثاق والحفاظ على صورة لبنان الرسالة، لبنان التعددي بشقيه المسيحي والمسلم.

This f'n idiot said please don't bother calling me...I guess the stupid french stopped and he's feeling lonely. Aoun has made a fool out of himself and his opposition??%#@... Time to clean this shit up...maybe a massive rally a la lebanon style on a sunny day??
Guys we are all tired of this crap. Time for a reawakening...

[Fawzan]

Folks here is article 49 of the constitution:
المادة 49

عدل نص المادة 49 بموجب القانون الدستوري الصادر في 17/10/1927 وبالقانون الدستوري الصادر في 8/5/1929 والقانون الدستوري الصادر في 21/1/1947، ثم عدل مجددا بموجب القانون الدستوري رقم 18 تاريخ 21/9/1990 على الوجه التالي : رئيس الجمهورية هو رئيس الدولة ورمز وحدة الوطن. يسهر على احترام الدستور والمحافظة على استقلال لبنان ووحدته وسلامة أراضيه وفقا لاحكام الدستور. يرئس المجلس الاعلى للدفاع، وهو القائد الاعلى للقوات المسلحة التي تخضع لسلطة مجلس الوزراء. ينتخب رئيس الجمهورية بالاقتراع السري بغالبية الثلثين من مجلس النواب في الدورة الأولى، ويكتفي بالغالبية المطلقة في دورات الاقتراع التي تلي.

Now if we analyse it well, you have to actually vote in a first round, before the 50+1 option becomes constitutional. That is where the manouvering is happening. At what point can M14 call in the last part of section 49 without الدورة الأولى

[JoseyWales]

Sounds like Aoun is readying for condolences for his dead prez chances.

They should tell him to stuff it. Let's leave the post empty for 3 months. An empty chair will do better than Lahoud and will have Aoun and Berri stewing in their juices.

[JoseyWales]

Fawzan,

Wake up man, we analyzed this 3 months ago.

You are late and wrong.

[Fawzan]

I don't think that M14 are being weak or giving in anything. As long as the elections were happening before the vacancy, there was no reason to surmount the الدورة الأولى، but after Baabda is vacant for a week, and if on the 30th there is no consensus, ((((AND SYRIA IS IN ANAPOLYIS))) Kil 7adis Ilo 7adees

[Fawzan]

Sorry Josey can you point me (URL) to where you did the analysis.

[JoseyWales]

Fawzan,

Here a couple of my old posts:
April 2007: The 2/3 Berri/Aoun Lie

July 2007: Prez Shocker

[Scroll down in both cases]

I can't point you to the Const. Council site, it's now disabled.

Point is: When 2/3 quorum is required (for a const. amendment for example) it is EXPLICITLY stated in the relevant article.

Re the prez election: It says 2/3 of the votes (suffrage in the french) are needed. I interpret that as 2/3 of the votes of those present.

Furthermore: even if you find an official Arabic version (your source??) that says 2/3 of MPs or Chamber (instead of 2/3 votes). It does not say anything about quorum (normally 50% +1). So you can have a session with 50%+1, no one is elected on round-one, you move to round-two etc.

Issue is a bit of a dead horse by now since Sfeir took it off the table and M14 did not fight it.

[Fawzan]

Josey, good point on article 49. Thank you for your paitence while I cought up. Hehe!

I think Samir Franjieh is pointing out a very important element. There is a reason that Syria and HA are at difference over Annapolis. I don't want to hold out too much hope, but maybe just maybe the Euro-US plan all along was to leave the Lebanese solution till after Annapolis. Remember that at one point Syria did offer to abandon HA and Hamas in exchange for serious talks about the Golan.

So the real question is: If Syria abandons HA can HA have the same cloute? What will be the real price of true Lebanese independence? So far we have not paid a real price. We have had a few noble martyres, but independence costs a bit more I think.

Watch for a few US visas being issued to key M14 and Opposition leaders to visit the outskirts of Annapolis. X-Hasan of course.

[Bad Vilbel]

Josey, e,

The Lebs have been saying this since Charles Helou signed the Cairo agreement:"Poor Charles, he knew it was bad but what could he do?" And they say this at every turn.

This is exactly right. The Lebanese have this propensity for a defeatist mentality. At every turn, the typical reaction is to throw one's hands in the air, very dramatically, and say "what can we do? it's out of out hands!"

If I am not mistaken, e is from Israel. He/she might not have lived in Lebanon or seen this behavior. But let me just tell you. It gets old real quick. It's the kind of mentality that people in the west, or in any advanced country would laugh at. "I'm getting fucked up the ass...oh well...what can I do?...Whatever God has in store for us..." This very mentality is at the root source of our problems in Lebanon. It is almost a philosophical issue: One must control one's own destiny. Say what you will about the Israeli people, but they have never simply accepted being fucked with a big sigh and smile. That's why they still have a country, after 60 years. Can you imagine, in 1967. "Eh...We had a good run...but what can you do?"

PS: I am not leaving quite yet. I don't think the situation is as dire as I thought, after taking a deep breath. Having said that, I still don't understand what March 14 is doing...

[theCourtFool]

They Agreed on Michel Edde... Everyone Agreed!

Geagea came out later and said: we'll grant the president a 50 +1 vote... TFEH!

America is the only county that will recognize a 50 +1 president.

America wants a Sunni-Shiite War In Lebanon - While The Christians stand aside.

I will Never let any of my Lebanese Compatriots fight with my interference in Stopping such non-sense that the Christians have experienced at first hand.

[JoseyWales]

Fool

They Agreed on Michel Edde... Everyone Agreed!

What evidence do you have of that?

Geagea came out later and said: we'll grant the president a 50 +1 vote... TFEH!

Meaning what? Grant Edde 50+1? What the hell are you talking about?